2006 RED SOX PREVIEW PART III

Hitting has been a staple of the Boston Red Sox during this stretch of playoff baseball. They have scored over 900 runs the past three seasons. They are poised to do it again. There have been several changes made in the lineup over the off-season, but the core and the principles appear to remain the same.

The lineup will start off with Coco Crisp. Crisp, as we all know, will replace Johnny Damon. Damon had a career year last season, but so did Crisp. We just didn't notice it considering he played in the less than frequently talked about AL Central. Damon batted .316, Crisp batted .300. Will we be pining for that extra hit every 63 at-bats? Damon scored many more Runs than Crisp, but Damon was in a much better lineup. The Indians as a team scored 120 fewer runs than the Red Sox. Crisp knocked in fewer runs, but once again, who would be on base for him to knock in? Johnny's OBP was .021 higher than Crisp's. However, Coco's slugging was .026 higher. An even trade off if you ask me. Crisp can run and Johnny can run. In fact, the only significant difference I can see between these two players is that Crisp is younger, cheaper, and can actually throw a baseball from the outfield. Crisp will do fine here. He'll hit in the lower .300 range, knock in somewhere around 75 runs, score about 100, steal a dozen or so bases, and be a good leadoff man.

Up next is another newcomer, Mark Loretta. Loretta replaces Bellhorn who had a good 2004 and a bad 2005. Loretta is a career .301 hitter and he is a smart hitter. He's the type of guy you love having bat 2nd in your order. He'll get on base nearly 4 out of 10 times, and will work counts. He has minimal power, but considering the guys hitting after him, we won't be needing him to hit too many HRs. I predict .300 with 70 RBI, 10 HRs, and a good number of Runs scored.

Now we get to the core, the best hitting combination since Ruth and Gehrig. Batting third will be Big Papi, David Ortiz, The Crusher, The Yankee Killer, Senor Clutch. Ortiz is coming off of a monster season. I just love to regurgitate his numbers. .300 BA, 148 RBI, 47 HRs, 102 BBs, .397 OBP, .604 Slugging, and 1 Stolen Base. The man is a monster. He's in the prime of his career and I predict he will put up similar numbers this season with two good table setters in front of him and one of the best pure hitters I've ever seen hitting behind him. .300, 140, 40 for DO.

Manny Ramirez is still with the team. I feel like there should be a press release everyday confirming that. Manny is Manny. He will aggravate the hell out of you until he gets into the batter's box. Then you love him again. Manny's average fell below his norms last year, but his production numbers were still there. I predict more of the same this year. He won't compete for a batting title, but he'll be in the race for the other Triple Crown categories. .300, 140 and 40 for MR24.

Now the lineup gets a little bit more flexible. Francona might want to put Nixon behind Manny to mix up lefties and righties. He then could plug in Varitek or Pena in the 5 hole.

Let's start with Nixon. When he's healthy, he's productive. But that's the problem. With Pena poised to platoon in right with Trot, he should have a better chance of staying off the DL for a significant amount of the season. He also won't have to deal with tough lefties. I heard on WEEI the other day that this isn't a big deal because there are so few lefty starters. This is true, however, there are a good number of lefties in the AL East. The Blue Jays have Chacin and Lilly. The Yankees have Johnson. There are left-handed pitchers we will be facing consistently. Trot should play about 110 games if he's healthy. He should bat around .310, knock in 60 to 70 and knock out around 20 homers.

Willy Mo Pena is going to cause manic depressiveness for many in Red Sox Nation. He hits a homer every 14.3 ABs over the past 2 seasons, but he strikes out about once every 3 at-bats. He'll contribute some power off the bench and power against lefties when Nixon has the day off. That is Willy Mo's MO. Maybe Papa Jack can instill a little bit more discipline in him. If he does, he has potential to be a very good hitter.

Jason Varitek has turned into an elite catcher, winning the Gold Glove, the Silver Slugger, and making the All-Star team. I personally think he is the best all around catcher in the game right now considering his versatility. He's going to get 50 extra base hits and he'll hit for a solid average. He'll knock in runs late in the lineup with guys like Ramirez, Nixon and Pena hitting in front of him.

Mike Lowell might be trouble at the beginning of the season. Reports from Fort Myers describe his bat as being "slow." He hit later on in Spring Training so perhaps he is getting into the swing of things, so to speak. I don't expect spectacular numbers from him, but I think he will contribute to this team's offense in the long run. If not, we have Cora, Youkilis, and Loretta prepared to fill in.

Kevin Youkilis is finally getting a chance to play consistently. He will be joined at first base by J.T. Snow but I think Youk will get most of the playing time. Kevin probably won't knock in a whole lot of runs, but he'll get on base to extend innings, keep pitchers working, and get knocked in by the top of the order. He just turned 27 and I think he'll prove this season that he can be a solid Major Leaguer.

J.T. Snow is the insurance policy at first base. Snow hasn't played 150 games since 2000, but he has still managed to contribute when playing. He'll play solid defense and will hit from time to time. Think of him as a John Olerud type of player.

Alex Gonzalez will not hit. He'll hit around .250 and knock in 60 runs or so. He will be consistent, though. He might play a role in eking out a few extra runs here or there when guys like Youkilis and Lowell get on base. He can move them over for Crisp and Loretta to knock in.

The Red Sox bench is looking better than last year's version. We lost Mirabelli, which is a big blow, but Josh Bard doesn't seem to bad. The guy is from Ithaca, NY so let's give him some props. He won't hit but if he catches Wakefield well enough then it won't be a major problem. If it does turn out to be a problem, the Red Sox will get a replacement through a trade. Bard probably has the best name on the team for Boston fans to pronounce. BAAAAAAAAAAHD!

Alex Cora will be the utility man of the infield. He hit decently with us at the end of last season but his defensive versatility is his true value. He's played significant time at SS and 2B and has played at 3rd as well as in the outfield very briefly. He's not slow either and can make a few things happen with his legs.

The only real speed threat on the bench is Adam Stern, though. Stern is a youngster but he had a fantastic Spring in the WBC and GFL. He's fast and he is good in the outfield, defensively. He'll probably fill the role that Gabe Kapler had with us.

On the horizon is Dustin Pedroia. Some speculate he will be playing regularly in the infield by the end of the season. He could replace Loretta if Loretta moves to 3rd if Lowell doesn't work out. He will probably be up with this team at some point before September.

Defensively, the Red Sox are much improved over last season. We have a Golden Glover behind the plate, Snow has won 6 of them, Loretta is no slouch, Gonzalez is a defensive wizard and Mike Lowell won the Gold Glove last season. Our outfield defense is a little shaky, but Crisp is good. Stern can come off the bench for defense late in games. Besides, of all the holes to have, corner outfield defense is one of the lowest on the priority list.

So that's it. I think the Sox have improved, but so have the Yankees and Blue Jays. The team with the best record in those 40 or so games in between the teams will probably win the division. I think the Yankees will take it, winning 98 games. I think we'll finish in 2nd with 96 wins and Toronto in 3rd with 90. I think we'll take the Wild Card by an even closer margin. Once the playoffs start and our rotation shrinks to 4 guys, we could be a real threat.

2006 RED SOX PREVIEW PART II

The Red Sox bullpen was a huge problem last season. In between October and April, the Red Sox have attempted to improve that problem.

The key is Foulke. He's coming off of injuries, which with his complicated deliveries might affect his pitching. He seems healthy enough judging from reports based on his minimal activity in Spring Training. He might start the season off a bit off but I think at year's end he will be dependable. We don't need him to be Eric Gagne. We just need him to be solid. We need him to Save 6 of 7 opportunities or somewhere around that. I think he will do that.

Mike Timlin was the best pitcher on the staff last season. This year I think we will see more of the same. Last year his greatest contribution was his durability. He made 81 appearances. We don't need him to make the same number of outings this year. However, he will be the #1 set-up man for us and we may rely on him to be the closer.

David Riske hasn't had a great Spring, but with relievers Spring is almost meaningless. In the past, he has put up solid numbers. He won't be making the All-Star game or anything, but he can go out there 60 to 70 times a year and put up an ERA of 3.40 to 3.60. That's something we lacked last season, a solid alternative to Mike Timlin.

Lenny Dinardo is making his third stint with the Red Sox. He has been a AAAA type of player, too good for the minors, not good enough for the Big Leagues. He will probably be used sparingly as a situational lefty. I doubt he'll be as good in that role as Mike Myers was last season, but I think he'll be good enough.

Rudy Seanez is making his second stint with the Red Sox. Since his last time with Boston he seems to have improved. With San Diego last year his ERA was 2.69. Combined the year before it was 3.33 in between Kansas City and Florida. I think we can expect the same out of Seanez that we will get from Riske. Somewhere around 60 appearances and an ERA in the mid 3's.

Julian Tavarez will start the season on appealed suspension. He, like Seanez and Riske, should be solid, going out there 1 out of 3 games, and chalking up an ERA somewhere in between 3 and 4.

Papelbon will start off in the bullpen with Wells on the 15 day DL and a 4 man rotation working with the off days. He should do well in that role. Last season his numbers were impressive in limited playing time. He made 14 relief appearances and 3 starts. He pitched 34 innings, striking out 34 and allowing 33 hits. He walked 17 batters. His WHIP was 1.47, which isn't amazing, but he was able to keep his Earned Run total down which speaks to his ability to get out of jams. He only allowed 10 earned runs. 2.65 ERA and striking out twice as many as he walked is damn good for a 24 year old. This season he'll be 25 and looking to only get better. I think he will.

Supporting the bullpen will be a myriad of minor league players that will move up and down I-95 in between Boston and Pawtucket. Jon Lester, Manny Delcarmen, Abe Alvarez, and Craig Hansen should all see time with the Big Sox by the time the season is out.

Lester will be in his first season at AAA Pawtucket after an amazing season in AA. Look for him to be the first guy the Red Sox call on to make spot starts if Papelbon is unavailable. Delcarmen will also be in AAA. The 24 year old Hyde Parker pitched in 10 games with us last season.

Craig Hansen is a phenom. He only pitched 12.2 innings last season in the minors before being called up to Boston. He went from taking final exams in May to pitching in Fenway in less than a year. He will start the year in AA where the Red Sox will try to teach him to pitch, not just throw gas. If he learns the ins and outs, builds up some arm strength, and some ingenuity on the mound, then he could be something really special in a year or two. The kid is only 22 years old. He had a great Spring allowing 0 runs in 10.2 innings. He will build on last season's impressive run through the minor leagues and he will be pitching for Boston by September.

The bullpen isn't going to really scare anyone. However, it is solid. It won't cost us too many games which is what last year's bullpen did. If Foulke can't close, we'll have Timlin and Papelbon available. We have much more depth in the pen this year so we can afford to take hits like that. The depth also allows us to not wear down pitchers. They'll be fresh come September and hopefully October.

THE 2006 RED SOX: PREVIEW PART I

The 2006 Red Sox look to build on last season and continue their run of post-season berths. At no point in Red Sox history have they ever made the playoffs 4 seasons in a row. If they do it in 2006, it will be 4 in a row, and 6 out of 9.

The Red Sox have rebuilt the all too flawed 2005 team with additions such as Josh Beckett, Alex Gonzalez, Mark Loretta, J.T. Snow, Mike Lowell, and Coco Crisp. Several members of the core team that won it all in 2004 will be returning with the notable exception of Johnny Damon.

STARTING PITCHING
Undoubtedly, the biggest problem with the 2005 season was a lack of pitching. As a team, the Sox ERA was 4.74. Only two regular pitchers - Mike Myers and Mike Timlin - had ERAs below 4.00. Myers is gone to the Yankees, but Timlin remains.

At the top of the rotation are Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett. Schilling will start the season in the #1 slot on Monday against Kevin Millwood. He is recovering from a very rough season in which he battled injury all year long. The big question is, what is left in the tank for Schilling?

Schilling only pitched 8 innings in Grapefruit League play. He did not perform very well, but he seemed to be using the time to experiment with new styles of pitching. The thing about Schilling is that even if he is not 100%, he is a very smart and tough pitcher. He knows how to get things done. I think he will be fine this season. Not as good as he was in 2004, but good enough to lead this staff. I think he will win 18 games, pitch 220 innings, and finish with an ERA around 3.50.

Beckett is another large question mark. Beckett is still a youngster, only 26. He has yet to achieve in a season what has been expected of him. This could very well be that season. He will have plenty of veterans around him to learn from. However, he'll also be trying to learn a new league. I think he'll start off a bit rocky and then finish the season strong. I'd say 16 wins, and an ERA of 3.40.

The rest of the rotation is much less spectacular. Wakefield, Clement, and Wells are all capable of greatness in one start then crappiness in the next.

Clement started last season off very nicely earning an All-Star bid. Then it seemed as though hitter's figured out what he would be throwing. He has always been a strong starter and weak finisher. I think he'll be solid for us on the whole finishing with 16 wins and an ERA of about 4.00.

Wakefield is a question mark. He always has been. His stuff hasn't changed much and it still works. I think he is getting older, however. Believe it or not, knuckleballers get tired too. I predict he will win 15 games for us and have an ERA of around 4.40.

Wells doesn't want to be here, but he hasn't allowed his unhappiness to affect his pitching in the past. He is coming off an injury and is getting up there in age, but I think there is still some gas left in the tank. He will be highly motivated to pitch well to make him more tradable. I think if he pitches well, he will be dealt by the All-Star break and replaced by Papelbon. For the first half of the season I think he'll win 7 or 8 and have an ERA of 4.60. Not bad for a 5th starter.

Papelbon will start the season in the bullpen. I think he will come into his own this season. With the uncertainty of the starting staff, he is almost bound to make at least 10 starts this year. If he does, he will not get overexposed and should perform nicely both in the pen and as a starter.

TAVAREZ SUSPENDED FOR 10 GAMES

Tavarez was suspended for 10 games starting Opening Day unless the reliever appeals. He probably will appeal and the suspension will probably get reduced. No other player was suspended or fined in the incident. I'm sure Tavarez's history (this is suspension #5) didn't help him in this situation.

In other news, the Red Sox and David Ortiz are on the verge of agreeing to a $50 million contract extension which would keep Ortiz with the Sox until 2010. Ortiz would finally be getting paid an amount he deserves: $12.5 million a season.

Today is the last day the Red Sox will be in Florida. They play Philly this weekend before starting the season on Monday in Arlington against the Rangers.

I can't friggin wait.

RED SOX HAVE A LOT OF FIGHT IN THEM

So Julian Tavarez was covering home plate. Joey Gathright slid into Tavarez. Tavarez thought Gathright was a bit too over zealous. So Tavarez hit him with his fist. You know, the animosity between the Red Sox and Devil Rays never ceases to amaze me. This incident seems as though it was our fault, but usually it is their doing (Gerald Williams charging Pedro, the constant throwing at our best hitters). I for one am grateful for it because it makes playing the D-Rays 20 times a season bearable.

This incident comes right after Josh Beckett and Ryan Howard got into a shouting match that resulted in the benches clearing but no punches being thrown. Howard hit a long fly ball and stood to watch it. It wasn't a fair our foul type thing, this one was to center field. He stood and stood up Beckett and watch his potential homerun fall into the center-fielder's glove for a long out. Then Beckett, upset by this classless showboating, yelled at Howard. The yelling continued when Howard took the field and Beckett returned to the dugout. The benches cleared as Howard approached the dugout. I can't say I blame Beckett. I mean, who admires their fly outs in spring training anyway?

The Red Sox will play the Phillies in Philadelphia to end spring training on Saturday and Sunday. Beckett will probably not pitch in those games. The Sox host the Devil Rays April 18th to the 20th. Tickets are on sale now.

One thing is for certain about this Red Sox team. They've got fire in them. They may not be the Idiots of 2004. But they are definitely not bland and boring.

BC WINS, BC LOSES, BC LOSES

This weekend was all about college sports, which is rare in New England. Boston College was in the Sweet 16 in both men's and women's basketball. BC was also in the NCAA hockey tournament along with BU, Maine, UNH, Harvard, and Holy Cross.

The weekend started off poorly for BC with a heartbreaking 60-59 loss to #1 seed Villanova on Friday night. The Eagles should have and could have won this game. They pulled out to a 16 point lead in the first half and were playing their brand of basketball then for some reason allowed Villanova to set the pace for the rest of the game. Nova came back but BC led by 8 points with 10:00 left in regulation and blew that lead too. Down the stretch, BC really shot itself in the foot at the foul line and offensive possessions that went nowhere.

BC did not score from 3:07 left on the clock until Jared Dudley hit his 3 pointer at 0:28. Coming down the stretch, that is a terrible drought. Only BC's defensive play prevented Villanova from running away with it. The Eagles went 3 for 7 from the foul line, several of those misses coming with less than 5:00 on the clock and the front end of a 1 and 1. Overall, BC was 8 for 17 in the game and Villanova was 14 for 20. In a game as close as this, that is a huge differential.

In OT, the Eagles simply looked frazzled. They missed their first three shots, not scoring until 2 minutes into overtime. By then they were down by 5. Craig Smith got it within one with a drive to the hole and the foul on the play gave BC a chance to tie it at 56-56. But Smith missed it.

The game came down to BC with the ball and 18 seconds on the clock. They were down 58-57. They inbounded and Craig Smith hit it to take the lead with 12 seconds on the clock. At first, BC defended Villanova perfectly. Then on an inbound play, the Eagles let Nova inbound it beneath the basket. Will Sheridan put it in for the Wildcats and the Eagles were sent back to classes.

Craig Smith had a good day but not one his best. He had 14 points, and 14 boards, but he was 2 for 6 from the line and turned the ball over 7 times. The only player that rebounded consistently besides Smith was Sean Williams who turned in another good defensive performance (7 rebounds, 3 blocks). Boston College turned the ball over 21 times, while forcing Villanova to turn it over 10 times. Near the end of the game, the turnovers were hardly even forced by Villanova. Passing the ball to no one, bad dribbling, et cetera.

BC had a great run this season. They finished 3rd in the ACC, and was on the precipice of greatness all season, losing by only 2 to Duke twice, and losing to #1 Villanova by a single point in OT. They had a team capable of winning it all. They just made a few too many mistakes near the end.

The BC women also fell just shy of making the Elite 8, losing to 5th seeded Utah 57-54. This came after BC upset #1 seed Ohio State to make the Sweet 16.

Here's the good news for BC. They won in the first round of the NCAA hockey tournament 5-0 against Miami-Ohio. Also winning in the first round was BU. Holy Cross pulled a major upset by beating 3rd in the country Minnesota 4-3. Also in the first round, Maine beat Harvard 6-1 and UNH barely fell to Michigan State 1-0. The big match-up for the second round was BC vs. BU. The game was played in Worcester and the winner would be going to Milwaukee as part of the Frozen Four. Boston College had lost to BU in their past 4 meetings, including a 1-2 OT loss in the Hockey East Championship game and a 3-2 loss in the Beanpot. BC got revenge though, with a 5-0 drubbing that sent BU packing back to Boston and sent the Eagles packing for Wisconsin.

Boston College was joined in the Frozen Four by North Dakota. Today Cornell plays Wisconsin, and Maine plays Michigan State for the last two spots. BC will be up against the North Dakota Fighting Sioux in the national semi-finals, which will be in less than 2 weeks.

SOX DROP TO YANKS, PENA HOMERS

Adam Stern had yet another good Spring outing and is making a good case for the Red Sox to carry 5 outfielders. He went 3 for 5 with a double, a homerun, and a stolen base. He also knocked in two runs. He is batting .429 in Grapefruit League play to go along with his .667 WBC average. Overall in Spring games he is batting .500 (15 for 30) and is slugging 0.967 combined.

Willy Mo Pena also did well, going 2 for 4 with a laser homerun and 2 RBI. It wasn't enough thoush as Papelbon gave up 2 runs in 5 innings, Timlin gave up a run in an inning, and Riske gave up 2 runs in an inning. Craig Hansen continued his scoreless Spring with a clean sheet in the 8th.

COLTS FANS UPSET AT LOSS OF VANDERJERK?
You'd think that Indy fans would be jumping for joy. After all, last season ended for them on a missed field goal and they had just signed the guy who almost never misses when it matters most. Yet it seems as though many Colts fans are dissapointed to see Mike Vanderjagt leaving and going to Dallas and Adam Vinatieri coming to Indianapolis. This makes me wonder, maybe Indy fans are morons. Also, maybe Pats fans are overreacting.

TEN DAYS TIL OPENING DAY
Opening day in Arlington, TX is getting closer and closer. There are still a few questions yet to be answered, however. Curt Schilling will start on Opening Day, and Beckett will come after that. But who will be #3? Probably Clement who has had a good spring. Then Wakefield. Then the #5 hole which is vacant because Wells won't be starting until the 10th game of the season. Papelbon will probably pitch there, but if he does well, will he be removed from the rotation?

Then there's the question of the backup catcher. The pride of Ithaca: Josh Bard, has seen the most time there this spring. He brings some experience to the position with 149 games caught with the Indians. In 1,197.2 innings behind the dish, he has allowed 9 passed balls or 1 every 133 innings. He's batted .278 this spring and has seen more time than the other catchers. Unless the Sox can acquire another backup catcher, I think he will be it.

LET'S CALM DOWN, PEOPLE

Been listening to WEEI off and on and reading a few posts on a few message boards and I think that people in Patriot Land need to calm down. Some people are viewing this as the end of a dynasty. Some people are proclaiming Vinatieri as being "greedy". I think these opinions are too extreme.

In the end Vinatieri is a kicker. He's a great kicker, but he isn't the be all and end all of the team. Yes, he was money when it mattered most. But there are many more important elements of a football team that are more important.

I don't think Vinatieri is being "greedy" either. He wants security and he's gotten it with his $3.5 million signing bonus. This type of stuff happens in pro sports. It is a business.

So let's get off the Patriots back just a bit. Let's see who they get to replace Adam and how it works out during the season. And let's get off Adam's back. Both the team and Adam have performed so well for us over the past few seasons that we should cut them just a bit of slack.