PAC-10 FOOTBALL PREVIEW*

If you were calling the plays for USC, why wouldn't you go for 2 after every touchdown, never punt, and frequently onside kick? What do you have to lose? The Trojans can win the Pac-10, but can't play in the postseason. But I suspect they'll play a role in determining who gets to the Rose Bowl.

1. OREGON DUCKS

Losing QB Jeremiah Masoli hurts. But all 5 o-linemen return. And RB LaMichael James will be back after a 1,546 yard, 14 TD freshman campaign. The defense is this team's strength. Excellent LBs, small but quick d-line, and adept DBs. They didn't lose at home last year, and haven't lost in Eugene since September of '08. Unfortunately for them, they play USC and Oregon State on the road.

Key Games:
10/30 @ USC
12/4 @ Oregon State

Prediction: 10-2, Pac-10 Champions

2. OREGON STATE BEAVERS

There'll have to be a new QB in Corvallis, but the star will be RB Jacquizz Rodgers, who ran for 1,440 yards, 21 TDs, and also had 522 receiving yards. 4/5 of the o-line returns, and the Beavers will likely improve what was the 26th highest scoring offense in the country last year. However, the defense will ultimately bar them from the Rose Bowl. They have no pass rush, and the LBs are weak. I'll give them credit for a ballsy non-conference schedule. And in something that might be deemed karma, they get to play USC and Oregon at home.

Key Games:
9/4 vs. TCU (in Arlington, TX)
9/25 @ Boise State
11/20 vs. USC
12/4 vs. Oregon

Prediction: 9-3

3. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TROJANS

I'm not sold on Matt Barkley. His 15 TD, 14 INT campaign was pretty bad. The Trojans were in unfamiliar territory in '09. They were 69th in scoring offense, and 55th in total offense. But their defense was even worse. They allowed 55, 47, and 36 points to Stanford, Oregon, and Oregon State, respectively. But they return their front 7 pretty much intact, so they should be older and wiser. The secondary is brand new. But a manageable non-conference schedule, and the mediocrity of the Pac-10 will inflate USC's win total. But they won't beat either team from Oregon.

Key Games:
10/30 vs. Oregon
11/20 @ Oregon State

Prediction: 10-3.

The rest of the conference is listed alphabetically...

ARIZONA WILDCATS

QB Nick Foles leads the way. He threw for 2,486 yards last year and was a pleasant surprise in Tucson. They return some solid WRs for him to play catch with. The Wildcats have some excellent pass-rushing ends, but there are major holes at LB. That being said, Arizona will build on their back-to-back bowl seasons and continue to progress.

Prediction: 7-5

ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS:

ASU features an awful offense, that was 91st in scoring last year. On the bright side, they only return 3 starters. They do have quality kickoff and return units. And the defense is outstanding. They led the Pac-10 in rushing, passing, and total defense. They were 2nd in scoring. Four of the Front 7 return, although the secondary will be quite vulnerable.

Prediction: 5-7

CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS

Don't expect much from Cal. They're definitely #2 in the Bay Area, and might be #4 in all of California. Although RB Shane Vereen will be fun to watch (almost as fun as saying his name out loud). He ran for 952 yards and 12 scores despite only starting 4 games last year. They desperately need receivers, and their defense is a mess. Particularly the defensive backs.

Prediction: 6-6

STANFORD CARDINAL

I think losing Gerhart hurts a lot more than people think. It's the Pac-10, so with a competetive offense, and a forgettable defense, Stanford will still contend. But against the likes of USC or the Oregon teams, Stanford will be blown away.

Prediction: 8-4

UCLA BRUINS

"Progress" is the word for UCLA. And they need a lot more of that on offense, especially with the ground attack. The Bruins were 97th in rushing last year. That must change. They had a good 2009 campaign, but lost some vital defensive leaders. Then again, they have good DBs, and a few key guys remain.

Prediction: 6-6

WASHINGTON HUSKIES

NFL prospect Jake Locker returns for his final attempt to get Washington to a bowl game. He threw for 2,800 yards and 21 scores last year, and holds almost every quarterbacking record at the school. He's surrounded by talent on offense, with 9 returning starters, including RB Chris Polk who ran for 1,113 yards his freshman season. The defense, however, is shaky. The d-line is weak. But the secondary might be a pleasant surprise. Unfortunately, Locker's college career will end with the regular season finale at Washington State, and not in a bowl game.

Prediction: 4-8

WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS

Last alphabetically, and last in the Pac-10. The Huskies haven't won a game played outside of Washington since October of 2006. They were outscored by an average of 38.5 to 12 last year. Their only win of '09 was a 30-27 victory over SMU, who they'll play on the road in 2010. Montana State should help double their win total to 2.

Prediction: 2-10

BALTIMORE BAILOUT

The Sox avoided disaster thanks to a 6 run 7th inning, capped by a pair of homers from Scutaro and Beltre. Lester struggled early, but thankfully settled into a groove, going 6 innings and grinding out win #15.

So that's good, I suppose. But the Yankees and Rays also won. The Sox have 29 games remaining, and a 7 game deficit to close. In case you hadn't already figured it out, the Sox need a miracle more unheard of then their 0-3 comeback in '04.

Matsuzaka faces Brad Bergesen tonight. Unless the Rays or Yankees lose 8 in a row, every game from here on out is a must-win.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

BIG EAST FOOTBALL PREVIEW*

The Big East is the last old school conference left. No title game. Just 8 teams, all playing each other, and the best conference record wins. There's something wholesome about that.

1. CONNECTICUT HUSKIES

UConn will be returning 8 starters on an offensive unit that was 27th in scoring last year. That includes 4/5 offensive linemen. The Huskies also return 8 defensive starters, including all 4 defensive linemen. Despite a shady secondary, this spells disaster for the rest of the Big East. UConn lost 5 games last year, but never by more than 4 points. They have a nice out-of-conference schedule, and they get to host Cincinnati, Pitt, and West Virginia.

Key Games:
10/29 vs. West Virginia
11/11 vs. Pitt
11/27 vs. Cincinnati

Prediction: 10-2, Big East Champions

2. PITTSBURGH PANTHERS

Pitt had a nice 10-3 season last year, but fell 1 point shy of beating Cincinnati. They're ranked 15th, and the experts think that Dave Wannstedt will claim his first Big East title. But I'm not completely sold. RB Dion Lewis is a beast, rushing for 1,799 yards last season, and there are playmakers on both sides of the ball. But I don't think this team has the character to win the big game. They also have a tough non-conference schedule that might demoralize them before they even get into Big East play. They also have 6 road games. In this day and age, who plays the same number of home and away games?

Key Games:
9/2 @ Utah
9/23 vs. Miami (FL)
10/9 @ Notre Dame
11/11 @ UConn
11/26 vs. West Virginia
12/4 @ Cincinnati

Prediction: 9-3

3. CINCINNATI BEARCATS

People are down on Cincinnati, even though they were 12-1 last year. It's true that they lost their QB and their head coach. But Butch Jones will run a similar spread offense for QB Zach Collaros, who excelled when Tony Pike missed 4 starts last year. The defense is a worry, and the offense might not be able to score the 38.6 points per game needed to bail them out. Cincinnati will be a tough opponent, but will ultimately fall just a bit short of winning the Conference.

Key Games:
9/25 vs. Oklahoma
11/13 @ West Virginia
11/27 @ UConn
12/4 vs. Pitt

Prediction: 9-3

4. WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS

Watch out for WVU. I have them ranked 4th in the Big East here, but the difference between these top 4 teams is very slight. Noel Devine returns for his senior season in Morgantown. While the Mountaineers have to introduce a new QB, rushing is their bread and butter. Thhey led the Big East and were 24th in the country with 186.4 yards per game on the ground. However, they need to punch the ball into the end zone more. They were 67th in scoring offense. Defensively, they were solid, and return 10 starters. That side of the ball should do well enough to keep WVU in almost every game. Playing LSU in Baton Rouge might cost them a win, but after that game, their remaining schedule will seem like gravy. And trips to Storrs and Pittsburgh will be child's play.

Key Games:
9/25 @ LSU
10/29 @ UConn
11/13 vs. Cincinnati
11/26 @ Pitt

Prediction: 8-4

The rest of the Conference is listed alphabetically...

LOUISVILLE CARDINALS

New coach Charlie Strong will revitalize the Cardinals and bring them back to national relevancy. He just won't be able to do it overnight. The offense is awful. There's no reliable QB. Who knows what the ground attack will do. The defense has holes. This is a rebuilding project, and don't expect much from them. But they might provide a surprising win to shake up the Conference title race.

Prediction: 5-7

RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS

Sophomore Tom Savage is back after a decent freshman season. And his 11 starts make him the most experienced QB in the Conference. There are some serviceable skill players, but a questionable offensive line in front of them. The defense is fast, returns 6 starters, and they get a strong push up front. They won't be easy to beat.

Prediction: 8-4

SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS

This is a preview season for USF. They'll contend and compete in Conference play. But next year, they could be extremely dangerous. Sophomore QB BJ Daniels threw for 1,983 yards last year, and ran for 772 more. The defense only returns 3 starters, but there are several promising talents at key positions. The schedule is a bit too rocky, though. Trips to Gainesville, Miami, Morgantown, and Cincinnati will hurt USF's record. But again, watch out for them.

Prediction: 7-5

SYRACUSE ORANGE

This team is awful. But their schedule is a joke. Back-to-back games against Maine and Colgate. That'd be intimidating for a hockey team, but not for football. The offense is a joke. The defense returns 10 starters, but that unit was 81st in scoring last year, so is it a good thing that they're all back? Thanks to the schedule, there's an outside chance that Cuse makes a bowl game.

Prediction: 5-7

THIS IS THE END

Even after losing 2 of 3 to Tampa, there were some overly optimistic sunshine lovers out there who thought the Sox had a realistic shot at a playoff spot. "All they have to do is go 26-6." That was the refrain. My favorite part of that sentence is the "all they have to do" part. As if prolonged stretches of .800+ baseball were common.

The optimist would then go into the schedule, pointing out games with the likes of Baltimore. But it's been the likes of Baltimore that have kept the Red Sox well in check this season. After last night's loss, the Sox are 6-7 against the O's. The Yankees are 10-2 against Baltimore. The Rays are 9-3. The Blue Jays are 12-0.

The Sox' struggled against mediocre and bad teams have been well documented. And I've tried to think of why this might be. But I realized something last night: with a few exceptions, the Red Sox are only slightly better than a .500 team.

The Angels, the Blue Jays, and interleague play have boosted the Sox. Those are the exceptions. The norm is to be average. The Sox have winning records against 5 teams. And three of those are by only a game (4-3 against Kansas City, 3-2 against Minnesota, 4-3 against Seattle). They're .500 against 3 teams (Cleveland, Detroit, Oakland). They have a losing record against 4 teams. Let me reiterate that. Winning record against 5 opponents. Split with 3. Losing record against 4.

The Sox were 9-1 against the Angels, 11-4 against the Blue Jays, and 13-5 against NL competition. Overall, the Red Sox are 74-58 (.561). But take out the games against the afore-mentioned opponents, and they're 41-48 (.461). I had to triple check that number. 45% of the Sox' wins have come from 33% of their games. They've crushed the Angels. They've owned Toronto. And they rolled through the NL. But the norm for this team is actually below average.

This is not a good team. And the struggles against weaker opponents like Baltimore is just normal.

Why are the Sox not good? The short answer is: injuries, mediocre defense, a shabby bullpen, John Lackey's and Josh Beckett's disappointing seasons. It's not rocket science.

MANNY BEING ANNOYING

Jayson Stark of ESPN wrote a brilliant column about Manny Ramirez's various exits from city to city. And while the ranks of Manny loyalists here in Boston have dramatically dwindled the past few years, there are still some out there who wish to praise this man.

It's true, the Sox won a pair of World Series thanks in no small part to him. That's two rings more than they'd won in the previous 8 decades. Then again, it was pitching that ultimately won those titles. Manny was indeed an irreplaceable part of those Championships, but not quite as irreplaceable as Derek Lowe in '04, or Josh Beckett in '07.

We didn't hear much about Manny's antics in LA, considering it was a few thousand miles, and a separate League away. But he pulled his same crap. He was always inexplicably hurting and couldn't play. He recently got kicked out of a game for arguing balls and strikes. Can you imagine that? Manny, while in a Red Sox uniform, was more docile at the plate than JD Drew. He'd only get kicked out if he wanted to, or if he didn't care if he did.

In Stark's column, he quotes an unnamed NL executive, who makes an exceedingly poignant point about Mr. Ramirez:

How could a true Hall of Famer be whisked out of town like this in two places? Not a lot of Hall of Famers get put on outright waivers -- just take the contract and he's yours -- two different times, the first time when he's still in his prime, right? You don't see that a whole lot.

Manny's career numbers are indeed astounding. 554 homers, 1,828 RBI so far. A career average of .313, with a .411 OBP and .589 SLG (that's an even 1.000 OPS, which is 9th all-time). Then there's 29 post-season HR in only 111 games, with 78 RBI. 12 time All-Star, 9 time Silver Slugger.

Manny Ramirez, despite that female fertility drug stuff, will likely make the Hall of Fame some day. But will he perhaps have an exit from Cooperstown as dramatic as his exits from Boston and Los Angeles? I wouldn't put it past him to harass some security guard, or maybe slap a fellow inductee during the speeches when he gets in.

IS THE SEASON OVER?

Don't bury the Red Sox quite yet, but you may want to keep your schedule clear for their funeral. A heartbreaking weekend in Florida has all but sealed their fate. The Sox are now 6.5 behind the Rays and Yankees, and 7 behind in the loss column. With only 31 games remaining, they'd have to pick up one game on either team, once every four games, or about 3 games every 2 weeks. Barring a stupendous run, coupled by a collapse from either Tampa Bay or New York, it's safe to say that the Sox will see their season finish at 162 games.

I'll blame the injuries a bit for this weekend's failures. Certainly Youkilis and Pedroia would have scored some runs. Both teams pitched well, as evidenced by the 17 total runs scored in the series. The Rays just got a few more hits.

But a 162 game season isn't lost in 3 days. The Sox are now 5-9 against the Rays, their direct competitor for a playoff spot. They're also 5-7 against the Yankees.

The Sox play the Rays 3 more times. They also play the Yanks 6 more times. So there's still a glimmer of hope. But the Sox have been 23-19 since the All-Star Break. Like I said, it's not just been one bad weekend, it's been an extended period of slightly above average play.

The Sox have a day off then travel to Baltimore. Beckett faces Brian Matusz. The Sox are 6-6 against the O's this season.

But look on the bright side. It seems as though Manny Ramirez will be returning to Fenway, as a member of the White Sox. That series begins September 3rd.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

SPLIT DECISION

Doubleheaders suck. It's very difficult to win both games, especially with bullpens constructed as they are. By winning the first game, you usually use up your top relievers. It becomes doubly hard to sweep doubleheaders when you have to jostle your rotation around.

Let's start with Game #1. Josh Beckett was decent. He was great through 6, then fell apart in the 7th, yielding a pair of homers. But that's been the problem with Beckett, hasn't it? When was the last time he put together 20 solid innings in a row? I don't mean 20 innings allowing 2 runs, nothing that ridiculous. Just 20 innings, scattering some runs here and there, but being consistent.

And it's kind of sad that 6.1 innings and 3 earned runs is now considered a good start for Beckett. That being said, it's technically a Quality Start, and it's his first since August 3rd.

Now to Game 2. Mister Reliable, also known as Daisuke Matsuzaka, had to be scratched from his start against Tampa. So the Sox moved Lester back, and put Wakefield on the mound in the nightcap. Convoluted, eh? But the good news is that Lester gets to go against Tampa Bay. And honestly, even with Lester on the mound, it would've been hard to beat Felix Hernandez.

Hernandez is now 10-10. But get this, last night was his 15th straight Quality Start. 25 of his 28 starts have been Quality. You can't help but feel bad that his talents have been wasted with such a terrible team.

Anyway, it's hard to be upset at splitting a doubleheader, especially considering the strange circumstances surrounding the 2nd game. Then again, the Sox were 6-3 on a homestand against some very beatable teams. Not bad, but not good enough.

They have 3 absolutely vital games down in Tampa Bay this weekend. They must at least win 2. If they lose 2, then the Wild Card/Division is out of reach. But the Sox are 4-8 against the Rays this season.

Jon Lester opposes David Price Friday night.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

BCS BUSTERS PREVIEW*

Last year saw a BCS Bowl between two undefeated non-BCS teams. It was a convenient way for the good ole boys in the BCS to avoid embarrassment, while simultaneously pretending that the likes of Boise State and TCU don't scare them to death. Here's a preview of some non-BCS and independent teams that might make some noise this college football season.

BOISE STATE BRONCOS

BSU will wisely transfer to the Mountain West in 2011, which will make the non-BCS MWC a top 5 conference in my books. The Broncos have won 14 straight, and 26 of 27. Junior QB Kellen Moore returns after a 39 TD, 3 INT season. They're loaded at every skill position, including TE, and return 9 offensive starters. They need to figure out the alignment of their O-line, but that's the only real issue on offense. Defensively, they return 9 as well. Remember, this team held Oregon and TCU to 18 total points. Imagine, a 14-0 team returns 18 starters in an unbelievably weak conference. What do you get?

Prediction: 12-0

Key Games:
9/6 vs. Virginia Tech (Landover, MD)
9/25 vs. Oregon State
11/26 @ Nevada

TCU HORNED FROGS

Even though TCU lost to Boise State, they were also the last team to beat Boise State, in the 2008 Poinsettia Bowl. QB Andy Dalton already has 29 wins under his belt going into his senior campaign. They return 9 offensive starters, including 4/5 of their O-line. They have quality and abundance at WR and RB. Defensively, they were 6th in the country last year in scoring, and 1st in total defense. They return 7 starters, but their 4 losses were huge. Cornerback could be a very susceptible position.

Prediction: 11-1

Key Games:
9/4 vs. Oregon State (in Arlington, TX)
10/16 vs. BYU
11/6 @ Utah

BYU COUGARS

Even though TCU's lost some key defensive players, their rivals in the Mountain West have taken more significant hits. BYU welcomes a new QB, and RB Harvey Unga left the school for an "honor code violation." But they do bring back 4/5 offensive linemen, and some solid WRs. Unfortunately, only two of their defensive front 7 will be back. They also have to play TCU and Utah on the road.

Prediction: 8-4

Key Games:
9/18 @ Florida State
10/16 @ TCU
11/27 @ Utah

UTAH UTES

QB Jordan Wynn will start the season as a starter. He entered the fray midseason last year and struggled against TCU and BYU. But he excelled in the Poinsettia Bowl. 4/5 of the O-line returns, and they'll pave the way for a tandem of good backs. But the Utes have little experience at WR. The defense will need to rebuild quickly, as only 3 starters return. But they do have TCU and BYU at home this season. And TCU has never won in Salt Lake City in Mountain West play.

Prediction: 9-3

Key Games:
9/2 vs. Pittsburgh
11/6 vs. TCU
11/13 @ Notre Dame
11/27 vs. BYU

HOUSTON COUGARS

UH will once again trot out QB Case Keenum, who threw for 5,671 yards and 44 TDs. However, he threw 15 TDs, 9 in the last two games. He'll have a trio of 1,000+ yard receivers to throw to. But the Cougars will need to improve their 83rd ranked rushing offense. More importantly, they'll need to bolster what was the 95th scoring defense, and 111th total defense in 2009. The Cougars only play 3 games outside Texas, and should roll through C-USA.

Prediction: 11-2

Key Games:
9/18 @ UCLA
11/5 vs. Central Florida
11/20 @ Southern Miss
11/27 @ Texas Tech

NAVY MIDSHIPMEN

Navy were 10-4 in '09, earning their 8th straight winning season, and 8th straight Commander-in-Chief's Trophy. QB Ricky Dobbs rushed for 1,203 yards and threw for 1,031 more last year. His 27 rushing TDs set a new NCAA record for QBs. The Midshipmen averaged 280.5 rush yards a game and will look to do similarly in 2010. Their defense last year allowed the 10th fewest points in the country. But only 5 starters return, and none of the LBs have much experience. This could prove volatile in a 3-4 system. But a nice schedule, a tried and true gameplan, and some athletic players will propel Navy far in 2010.

Prediction: 10-2

Key Games:
10/2 @ Air Force
10/9 @ Wake Forest
10/23 vs. Notre Dame (in East Rutherford, NJ)
12/11 vs. Army (in Philadelphia)

NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH

The Irish start the season ranked 34th in the preseason poll. That's still overrating them. They return 5 starters from their offense, and only 1 on the line. And their offense was their strength in '09. They were 63rd in scoring defense, 86th in total last year. They'll return 7 starters, including a strong D-line, some depth at OLB, and solid safeties. But they're still wholly overrated. The ND people gloss over some glaring flaws, and overly emphasize the Irish's few strengths.

Prediction: 6-6

Key Games:
9/25 vs. Stanford
10/9 vs. Pittsburgh
10/23 vs. Navy (in East Rutherford, NJ)
11/13 vs. Utah
11/27 @ USC

Boise State will definitely crack into the BCS. TCU has an outside chance, and needs to really dominate the Mountain West. Houston has a shot too, but would need to run the table. I'll give credit to Virginia Tech, Florida State, Pittsburgh, Texas Tech, and UCLA for scheduling these teams. Extra credit to Oregon State who'll play BSU in Boise and TCU in Texas.