Is it too early to look back on the 2005 season? No. Much like a murder investigation, it's always good to look at the evidence as soon as possible.
Player by Player Review:
SP - Tim Wakefield
Wake had exactly the kind of season that was expected of him. He went 16-12 in 33 starts, with an ERA of 4.12. He led the team in innings with 225.1, and complete games with 3. He pretty much was what was expected of him. As a #4 starter, his numbers would be adequate, but he was often the best starter on the team. Which says alot about how bad our pitching was.
SP - Bronson Arroyo
This was supposed to be the year that Arroyo broke out as a top pitcher. At first, this was what happened. Early on he was stellar. In March and April, he was 3-0 with a 3.69 ERA. He even threw a near no-hitter against the Tigers. This good start would fizzle though. His ERA for every month after April was over 4. For the last two months of the season, his ERAs were 5.40 and 4.85. Overrall, he was another #4 starter with a 14-10 record and an ERA of 4.51. He was able to eat alot of innings, throwing 205.1.
SP - Matt Clement
Clement started off the season as our Ace. He went 10-2 before the All-Star break. After that, however, he was 3-4. He was yet another #4 pitcher going 13-6 with an ERA of 4.57. He was a gamble pickup and he paid off at first, but not over the long run.
SP - David Wells
Wells was our fourth #4 starter. This pickup was more of a gamble and I'd have to say we got about the best you could have hoped for. He got injured early on but he didn't break down as was feared by many. He also pitched well enough to win Game 2 of the ALDS and won that Friday game against the Yankees that gave us a chance to win the division. A chance that was squandered. He went 15-7 with an ERA of 4.45. Not bad numbers for a #4 starter, but again, he was our fourth such type of pitcher.
SP/RP/Closer - Curt Schilling
Nobody knew how the ankle would affect Curt's pitching ability. But we all knew how his extra weight would. I'm shocked there wasn't a ton of criticism for Curt after he showed up to training camp out of shape. Actually, I'm not shocked. Curt's an All-American, corn fed, white guy and people like Pedro Martinez are gerri-curl sporting, hispanics. Weird how that works out, eh?
Anyway, with the absence of Pedro and Derek Lowe and no signing of a legitimate Ace, Curt was supposed to be our best starting pitcher this year. In my opinion, he was our worse. This was compounded by the fact that Francona stuck with Curt in games long after Curt had lost it.
Schilling had a weird season going from starter to injured to closer to starter. As a starter, he made 11 starts. He went 4-5 with an ERA of 5.87. He gave up 96 hits, and 16 walks in 69 innings (1.62 WHIP). As a releiver he was slightly better. He went 4-3 with an ERA of 5.18 in 21 releif appearances. He made 9 Saves in 11 Opportunities. His WHIP was 1.27. Even though he wasn't a great releif pitcher, he was definately better out in the pen. As a starter, he was a #5 at best.
SP - Wade Miller
You get the feeling that Theo is a gambling man? All of these additions to our rotations were essentially are crap shoots. Wade Miller was no exception. Miller did not work out as well as Wells or Clement though. He only made 16 starts going 4-4 with an ERA of 4.95. His season was plagued by injury and then the Red Sox were plagued by his healthiness.
RP/Closer - Mike Timlin
Mike Timlin was thrust into a role in which he did not belong. He was forced to pick up the slack for Foulke AND Embree. He was sent to the mound 81 times, a new Red Sox record for appearances. He was a true workhorse for us. He had 24 Holds, 13 Saves and 7 Blown Saves. He won 7 games and lost 3. He had an ERA of 2.24 but he allowed far too many inherited runners to score. He's given us 229 regular season appearances the past 3 years with us. Without him, our bullpen would have completely collapsed.
RP/SP - Jeremi Gonzalez
The fact that Gonzalez is 8th in innings pitched for us tells you how bad our bullpen was. Gonzalez made 25 releif appearances and 3 spot starts. His ERA was an abysmal 6.11. At first he was used in situations that mattered. Too many situations. And then he was relegated to mop up duty and dire emergencies.
Closer - Keith Foulke
Perhaps the biggest dissapointment of the year. Foulke struggled with injuries all season and as a result, left us without a dependable closer. He was only able to make 15 of 19 Save Opportunities and his absence really screwed up the bullpen, dumping alot of extra work on Timlin and forcing us to use more kids in tough situations.
RP - John Halama
Another gamble that we lost on. Halama made 29 releif appearances and 1 spot start. He had an ERA of 6.18 and was essentially ineffective.
RP - Mike Myers
Myers was a part of our championship team, then we didn't sign him, then we traded for him. He was actually one of the few pitchers that did his job. He was used as a situational lefty and was pretty succesful in this role. He made 65 appearances for 37.1 IP.
RP/SP - Jon(athan) Papelbon
Papelbon was one of the pleasant surprises to emerge from the Red Sox minor league system this year. At season's end, he was probably the most reliable pitcher on the staff. He only made 17 appearances (3 of which were starts) but his ERA was 2.65. In 34 innings, he gave up 33 hits and 17 walks (1.47 WHIP). He struck out 34. Without him, I don't know if we make the playoffs.
RP - Matt Mantei
Another roll of the dice that came up snake eyes. Mantei was horrible for us. He allowed about twice as many baserunners as he threw innings and his ERA of 6.49 was one of the highest on the team, which says alot considering how crappy our pitching staff was.
RP - Chad Bradford
Bradford was Mantei's replacement. He was used as a situational righty and did his job nicely. He was a Dan Duquette type pickup off the scrap heap and he did well. He made 31 appearances for us and had an ERA of 3.86
RP - Mike Stanton
I'm surprised we didn't try to get him earlier in the year. For us, Mike threw one inning allowing 1 hit, and striking out 1. I'm really surprised we didn't attempt to get him sooner. It couldn't have hurt the bullpen too much.
RP - Lenny DiNardo
Shockingly, the Red Sox didn't utilize DiNardo very much this season. He only made 7 releif outings and 1 spot start but he performed very well. He finished with an ERA of 1.84.
RP - Manny Delcarmen
Manny Delcarmen was another nice surprise. Although his lack of control prevented him from being used in big situations, he did give us 9 innings of 3.00 ERA pitching which is quite a contribution compared to what guys like Matt Mantei and Jeremi Gonzalez gave us.
RP - Blaine Neal
Just another demonstration of desparation. 8 innings pitched, 8 earned runs.
RP - Chad Harville
Scrapings from the bottom of the well. 7 innings, 5 ERs
RP - Mike Remlinger
We picked him up 2 years too late. 6.2 IP, 11 ER
RP - Craig Hansen
We brought him up 2 years too early. He demonstrated some good pitches, but not good pitching. He had difficulty keeping calm and throwing strikes in tough counts. When his pitch count rose and he fell behind in the count, opponents would sit on and devastate his fastball.
RP - Abe Alvarez
2.1 IP, 4 ER
RP - Clay Meredith
2.1 IP, 7 ER. Yet another crappy short term attempt at a solution.
RP - Scott Cassidey
0.2 IP, 3 ER
RP - Matt Perisho
0.0 IP, 1 ER, an ERA of infiniti. Matt Perisho really sums up the bullpen and the entire pitching staff. Inability to get an out, inability to avoid giving up runs.
RP - Alan Embree
Another huge dissapointment. Embree gave the Red Sox 37.2 innings of 7.65 ERA of work. He was essentially worthless but was still used too frequently in tough spots. The lack of Embree as a dependable set-up man really hurt this team.
Pitching Summary:
The lack of quality pitching really hurt the team. Last year we won the Series because of our pitching. We had Pedro, Schilling, Lowe, Wakefield, and Arroyo as a starting rotation. That's two #1s, a solid #2 in Lowe and a great #4 and 5 at the end of the rotation. Our bullpen was amazing too. We had Foulke at the end, set-up by Embree and Timlin with Myers used as a situational lefty.
Overrall, our pitching had an ERA was 4.76 as a team. That is absolutely terrible. The Red Sox as a team blew 17 Saves. That is abysmal. Think about it, had we converted just one of those Saves, we would have won the division and played LA instead of Chicago, and we would have played the first two games in Fenway.
Saturday, October 08, 2005
WHY WE LOST
In no particular order...
Wakefield didn't come up big enough for us. We needed to completely shut down the White Sox in order to assure victory. He pitched decently, but not amazingly, which is what we ended up needing.
An inability to hit young pitching and guess how old Bobby Jenks is: 24
El Duque still owns us. When I saw him warming in the pen, I cringed. Even with the bases loaded with 0 outs, I wasn't confident.
Johnny Damon and Edgar Renteria did NOTHING. A combined 1 for 8 to set up the big bats in the lineup isn't going to cut it.
Pulling Papelbon despite his crusing through the game. 2.2 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 0 R, 2 K.
Jason Varitek unable to get a big hit.
Bill Mueller not able to get a hit the entire series.
These reasons and more are why the Red Sox lost Game 3, which is why we're out of the post-season after one round for the first time since 1998. For the first time since 1995, we've been swept out of the post-season.
I really hope that whoever plays Chicago, either LA or New York, will sweep the White Sox. I'm getting sick of Ozzie Guillen and even though the White Sox outplayed us and deserved to win, I still think they're an overrated team.
Wakefield didn't come up big enough for us. We needed to completely shut down the White Sox in order to assure victory. He pitched decently, but not amazingly, which is what we ended up needing.
An inability to hit young pitching and guess how old Bobby Jenks is: 24
El Duque still owns us. When I saw him warming in the pen, I cringed. Even with the bases loaded with 0 outs, I wasn't confident.
Johnny Damon and Edgar Renteria did NOTHING. A combined 1 for 8 to set up the big bats in the lineup isn't going to cut it.
Pulling Papelbon despite his crusing through the game. 2.2 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 0 R, 2 K.
Jason Varitek unable to get a big hit.
Bill Mueller not able to get a hit the entire series.
These reasons and more are why the Red Sox lost Game 3, which is why we're out of the post-season after one round for the first time since 1998. For the first time since 1995, we've been swept out of the post-season.
I really hope that whoever plays Chicago, either LA or New York, will sweep the White Sox. I'm getting sick of Ozzie Guillen and even though the White Sox outplayed us and deserved to win, I still think they're an overrated team.
Friday, October 07, 2005
RED SOX PLAYOFF COMEBACKS
1986 vs. California Angels: Red Sox go down 3-1, win 3 straight to win AL pennant
1999 vs. Cleveland Indians: Red Sox go down 2-0 on the road, win 3 straight to go to ALCS
2003 vs. Oakland Athletics: Red Sox go down 2-0 on the road, win 3 straight to go to ALCS
2004 vs. New York Yankees: Red Sox go down 3-0, win 4 straight to go to World Series
Tonight the Red Sox put out their old war horse, Tim Wakefield. The man who was there the last time we won the division. The man who played in the 95, 98, 99, and 03 LDSs. We didn't need him in last year's LDS because we swept. This time, we need him.
He goes up against Freddy Garcia. I don't think Garcia or the White Sox have the mettle or the experience or the confidence to beat us in our own backyard. Then again, I also predicted we'd win games 1 and 2.
1999 vs. Cleveland Indians: Red Sox go down 2-0 on the road, win 3 straight to go to ALCS
2003 vs. Oakland Athletics: Red Sox go down 2-0 on the road, win 3 straight to go to ALCS
2004 vs. New York Yankees: Red Sox go down 3-0, win 4 straight to go to World Series
Tonight the Red Sox put out their old war horse, Tim Wakefield. The man who was there the last time we won the division. The man who played in the 95, 98, 99, and 03 LDSs. We didn't need him in last year's LDS because we swept. This time, we need him.
He goes up against Freddy Garcia. I don't think Garcia or the White Sox have the mettle or the experience or the confidence to beat us in our own backyard. Then again, I also predicted we'd win games 1 and 2.
GAME 2, CLOSE BUT NOT CLOSE ENOUGH
This game was lost on four different plays.
1. Graffanino's Error
2. Wells throwing 2 straight curveballs to Iguchi
3. Nixon pulling the ball too hard down the right field line
4. Renteria trying to pull a Jenks fastball
That's it. That was the game. 4 fucking plays. We screwed up and we lost. We deserved to lose because of these screw ups. But the game was even closer than the 5-4 score would suggest.
David Ortiz needs to learn how to not hit into the shift that other teams put on him. He needs to learn how to bunt better. It isn't that difficult of a thing to learn.
I have confidence going back into Fenway even though we're down 2-0. If we can win on Friday and Saturday, I'll have confidence facing El Mercenario in Chicago. Obviously, we need to win tonight though.
1. Graffanino's Error
2. Wells throwing 2 straight curveballs to Iguchi
3. Nixon pulling the ball too hard down the right field line
4. Renteria trying to pull a Jenks fastball
That's it. That was the game. 4 fucking plays. We screwed up and we lost. We deserved to lose because of these screw ups. But the game was even closer than the 5-4 score would suggest.
David Ortiz needs to learn how to not hit into the shift that other teams put on him. He needs to learn how to bunt better. It isn't that difficult of a thing to learn.
I have confidence going back into Fenway even though we're down 2-0. If we can win on Friday and Saturday, I'll have confidence facing El Mercenario in Chicago. Obviously, we need to win tonight though.
Tuesday, October 04, 2005
BLAAAAAAAAAAH
What a crappy game. What a crappy outing by Clement. What a crappy offensive output. Crappy, crappy, crappy!
Now that my anger is out, I still think we're going to win this series. Wells is going tomorrow and he has been very good lately. Chicago is throwing Buehrle against us, but he has struggled against good teams this year and we are a good team. If we win tomorrow, we split in Chicago and the series essentially becomes a best of 3 with most of the games in Boston. We should be able to win that. We will be able to win that. We will win that.
Now that my anger is out, I still think we're going to win this series. Wells is going tomorrow and he has been very good lately. Chicago is throwing Buehrle against us, but he has struggled against good teams this year and we are a good team. If we win tomorrow, we split in Chicago and the series essentially becomes a best of 3 with most of the games in Boston. We should be able to win that. We will be able to win that. We will win that.
Sunday, October 02, 2005
WHITE SOX SERIES PREVIEW
For the third straight year, and for the fifth time in their history, the Boston Red Sox are the AL Wild Card winners. They will play the AL Central Champion Chicago White Sox in the ALDS.
The two advantages the Red Sox have over the White Sox are history and experience. Chicago hasn't been in the playoffs since 2000. They haven't won it all since 1917. The last post-season series they won was the 1917 World Series.
The Red Sox have much more experience than the White Sox in the post-season. Here are our playoff experience stats:
Bronson Arroyo: 9 games, 2 starts, 16 IP
Chad Bradford: 8 games, 0 starts, 8.1 IP
Matt Clement: 2 games, 2 starts, 12.1 IP
Mike Myers: 7 games, 0 starts, 4.1 IP
Curt Schilling: 15 games,15 starts, 109.1 IP
Mike Timlin: 37 games, 0 starts, 41.1 IP
Tim Wakefield: 15 games, 8 starts, 59.1 IP
David Wells: 25 games, 15 starts, 113.1 IP
That's 118 playoff appearances, 42 starts, and 364.1 innings pitched
Doug Mirabelli: 9 games, 17 ABs
Jason Varitek: 36 games, 132 ABs
Kevin Millar: 26 games, 92 ABs
Tony Graffanino: 12 games, 14 ABs
Alex Cora: 4 games, 15 ABs
Edgar Renteria: 52 games, 194 ABs
Bill Mueller: 33 games, 134 ABs
John Olerud: 63 games, 230 ABs
Johnny Damon: 29 games, 132 ABs
Trot Nixon: 35 games, 116 ABs
Manny Ramirez: 78 games, 297 ABs
David Ortiz: 35 games, 131 ABs
That is 412 combined post-season games, and 1,504 at-bats.
Here are Chicago's numbers for playoff experience:
Mark Buehrle: 1 game, 0 starts, 0.1 IP
Freddy Garcia: 6 games, 6 starts, 34 IP
Jose Contreras: 8 games, 0 starts, 11 IP
Orlando Hernandez: 17 games, 14 starts, 102 IP
Dustin Hermanson: 2 games, 0 starts, 4 IP
That's 34 games, 20 starts, and 151.1 IP. without El Duque, it is 17 games, 6 starts, and 49.1 IP. Overrall, the Red Sox have 84 more appearances, 22 more starts, and 213 more innings.
AJ Pierzynski: 14 games, 45 ABs
Chris Widger: 5 games, 4 ABs
Paul Konerko: 3 games, 9 ABs
Jermaine Dye: 28 games, 102 ABs
Carl Everett: 8 games, 28 ABs
That's 58 games, 188 At-Bats.
I don't put a whole lot of stock in the auro surrounding playoff experience. It usually doesn't matter until it becomes crunch time. But in the playoffs, crunch time is the biggest and most intense crunch time imagineable for a ball player. When its tied in the 8th inning, thats when playoff experience matters. When you lose the first game at home, that's when playoff experience matters. To have already gone through the fire makes it easier to go through again. In my opinion, going through the fire in 2003 against New York made it possible to come back against them in 2004. We had already seen the playoffs and knew what they were about. The White Sox haven't. Furthermore, Ozzie Guillen, as a player, was never on a playoff series winning team when he played regularly in the series. Does this matter? Who knows?
Here are the ever important pitching matchups. As we learned last year, anything can happen to pitchers so anything can happen in the game. Derek Lowe was not supposed to start for us at all but went on to win all 3 clinching games. This season, our imposing Schilling-Pedro-Wakefield-Arroyo is not there to look at with awe. This year it will be Clement-Wells-Wakefield-Schilling with Arroyo in the pen. It isn't so bad though. All of these pitchers are capable of having stellar performances, and they have 5 World Series rings amongst them so they have been there and done that.
Game 1: Tuesday 4:00 PM EST, US Cellular Field, Chicago, IL
Matt Clement vs. Jose Contreras
Matt Clement starts the series for Boston primarily because of the way the rotation was when the season ended. It was either Clement or Arroyo and I think Francona made the right call to choose Clement, putting Arroyo in the beleaguered bullpen.
The White Sox, on the other hand, chose to start Contreras. They feel that he is their best pitcher. Contreras has improved since his days with New York, but in my mind, he will always be the guy that was bought by the Yankees, but owned by the Red Sox.
Clement ended the season at 13-6 with an ERA of 4.57. Those are not good numbers considering his 10-2 before the All-Star Game and his 3.85 ERA in the first half. He gives up a good number of walks, about 2 per start, which gets his pitch count up early on. If he's throwing strikes though, he's pretty good. His last start was a 5 inning, 4 run outing against Toronto which was good enough for a Red Sox victory. Before that, he went 6 shutout innings against the hapless Orioles. In his last 10 starts, he's had 6 quality starts and 2 starts that were pretty bad. He isn't going into October with a hot arm, but it isn't cold. I expect 6 innings and 3 runs from Clement, which I feel should be enough for a win if the pen doesn't implode. Matt hasn't started against the White Sox this season.
In somewhat limited exposure, the White Sox have decent numbers against Clement. Overrall, they're 37/117 (.316). None of the players who have had more than 7 at-bats against him have an average below .300. Podsednik is 7 for 19, Blum is 6 for 18, Perez is 4 for 13, Konerko is 3 for 9, Crede is 3 for 8. Everett is 3 for 6 and Rowand is 2 for 3 with a rare homerun. The one number that scares me is their OBP vs. Clement. It is .394 as a team. They will be able to get on base so hopefully Matt can strand alot of runners and get out of a few jams. Otherwise, he won't last long and won't give us a good shot to win.
Jose Contraras, El Mercenario, finished 2005 with an impressive 15-7 record and an ERA of 3.61. Like Clement, he walked about two people a game. He was able to go about 6.4 innings a game.
Unlike Clement, Contraras has a hot arm. He went 8 in his last start, allowing 2 runs. The start before he went the distance allowing only 1 run. Before that, he went 8 again and gave up only 1 run. He has gone 7 or more innings in 9 of his last 10 starts. Nine of his last 10 have also been Quality Starts with the only exception being a 7.2 inning outing against Minnesota in which he allowed 4 earned runs. He has won his last 8 starts in a row. But like we saw with the Patriots losing at home for the first time in 21 games, streaks end.
In his one start against us this year, he went 5.2 and allowed 3 runs in a 6-4 Chicago victory. He was a beneficiary of a poor start by Arroyo, great bullpen work, and the Red Sox leaving 11 men on. In that game, the Red Sox combined to go 10 for 35 (.286), hit two homers (Tek and Ortiz) and hit a double. We walked 6 times and were struck out 9 times. Eight of the hits we got were off Contreras but only 2 of the walks were off him. We left 6 men in scoring position. If we capitalize on opportunities Contreras gives us, we can get a big inning and put up a big number. Otherwise, he'll shut us down and we will lose.
The Red Sox have seen just about as much of Contraras as the White Sox have of Clement. We're 33/101 (.327). However, our on-base percentage is a very nice .427. We should work a walk each time through the lineup. Ortiz is 3 for 14 with a double and a homer. Damon is 4 for 14 with a homer. Manny is 3 for 13 with a double and a homer. Mueller is 6 for 13 with a double and a homer. Mueller's bat is getting hot too so look for him to have a nice day. Millar is 5 for 10 with a double and two homers. Tek is 3 for 8, Cora is 3 for 7, Tony G is 1 for 6, Trot is 2 for 4.
I think the Red Sox will be able to get alot of baserunners against El Mercanario and I think we will be able to put up some runs. We let his previous start against us slip but that was a rare lapse against this guy. It would be very nice to put up some runs, let Clement cruise and focus on throwing strikes, and wear down Chicago's bullpen, which is pretty dam good which would make it that much better to wear it down.
My prediction: Red Sox win 7-3
The two advantages the Red Sox have over the White Sox are history and experience. Chicago hasn't been in the playoffs since 2000. They haven't won it all since 1917. The last post-season series they won was the 1917 World Series.
The Red Sox have much more experience than the White Sox in the post-season. Here are our playoff experience stats:
Bronson Arroyo: 9 games, 2 starts, 16 IP
Chad Bradford: 8 games, 0 starts, 8.1 IP
Matt Clement: 2 games, 2 starts, 12.1 IP
Mike Myers: 7 games, 0 starts, 4.1 IP
Curt Schilling: 15 games,15 starts, 109.1 IP
Mike Timlin: 37 games, 0 starts, 41.1 IP
Tim Wakefield: 15 games, 8 starts, 59.1 IP
David Wells: 25 games, 15 starts, 113.1 IP
That's 118 playoff appearances, 42 starts, and 364.1 innings pitched
Doug Mirabelli: 9 games, 17 ABs
Jason Varitek: 36 games, 132 ABs
Kevin Millar: 26 games, 92 ABs
Tony Graffanino: 12 games, 14 ABs
Alex Cora: 4 games, 15 ABs
Edgar Renteria: 52 games, 194 ABs
Bill Mueller: 33 games, 134 ABs
John Olerud: 63 games, 230 ABs
Johnny Damon: 29 games, 132 ABs
Trot Nixon: 35 games, 116 ABs
Manny Ramirez: 78 games, 297 ABs
David Ortiz: 35 games, 131 ABs
That is 412 combined post-season games, and 1,504 at-bats.
Here are Chicago's numbers for playoff experience:
Mark Buehrle: 1 game, 0 starts, 0.1 IP
Freddy Garcia: 6 games, 6 starts, 34 IP
Jose Contreras: 8 games, 0 starts, 11 IP
Orlando Hernandez: 17 games, 14 starts, 102 IP
Dustin Hermanson: 2 games, 0 starts, 4 IP
That's 34 games, 20 starts, and 151.1 IP. without El Duque, it is 17 games, 6 starts, and 49.1 IP. Overrall, the Red Sox have 84 more appearances, 22 more starts, and 213 more innings.
AJ Pierzynski: 14 games, 45 ABs
Chris Widger: 5 games, 4 ABs
Paul Konerko: 3 games, 9 ABs
Jermaine Dye: 28 games, 102 ABs
Carl Everett: 8 games, 28 ABs
That's 58 games, 188 At-Bats.
I don't put a whole lot of stock in the auro surrounding playoff experience. It usually doesn't matter until it becomes crunch time. But in the playoffs, crunch time is the biggest and most intense crunch time imagineable for a ball player. When its tied in the 8th inning, thats when playoff experience matters. When you lose the first game at home, that's when playoff experience matters. To have already gone through the fire makes it easier to go through again. In my opinion, going through the fire in 2003 against New York made it possible to come back against them in 2004. We had already seen the playoffs and knew what they were about. The White Sox haven't. Furthermore, Ozzie Guillen, as a player, was never on a playoff series winning team when he played regularly in the series. Does this matter? Who knows?
Here are the ever important pitching matchups. As we learned last year, anything can happen to pitchers so anything can happen in the game. Derek Lowe was not supposed to start for us at all but went on to win all 3 clinching games. This season, our imposing Schilling-Pedro-Wakefield-Arroyo is not there to look at with awe. This year it will be Clement-Wells-Wakefield-Schilling with Arroyo in the pen. It isn't so bad though. All of these pitchers are capable of having stellar performances, and they have 5 World Series rings amongst them so they have been there and done that.
Game 1: Tuesday 4:00 PM EST, US Cellular Field, Chicago, IL
Matt Clement vs. Jose Contreras
Matt Clement starts the series for Boston primarily because of the way the rotation was when the season ended. It was either Clement or Arroyo and I think Francona made the right call to choose Clement, putting Arroyo in the beleaguered bullpen.
The White Sox, on the other hand, chose to start Contreras. They feel that he is their best pitcher. Contreras has improved since his days with New York, but in my mind, he will always be the guy that was bought by the Yankees, but owned by the Red Sox.
Clement ended the season at 13-6 with an ERA of 4.57. Those are not good numbers considering his 10-2 before the All-Star Game and his 3.85 ERA in the first half. He gives up a good number of walks, about 2 per start, which gets his pitch count up early on. If he's throwing strikes though, he's pretty good. His last start was a 5 inning, 4 run outing against Toronto which was good enough for a Red Sox victory. Before that, he went 6 shutout innings against the hapless Orioles. In his last 10 starts, he's had 6 quality starts and 2 starts that were pretty bad. He isn't going into October with a hot arm, but it isn't cold. I expect 6 innings and 3 runs from Clement, which I feel should be enough for a win if the pen doesn't implode. Matt hasn't started against the White Sox this season.
In somewhat limited exposure, the White Sox have decent numbers against Clement. Overrall, they're 37/117 (.316). None of the players who have had more than 7 at-bats against him have an average below .300. Podsednik is 7 for 19, Blum is 6 for 18, Perez is 4 for 13, Konerko is 3 for 9, Crede is 3 for 8. Everett is 3 for 6 and Rowand is 2 for 3 with a rare homerun. The one number that scares me is their OBP vs. Clement. It is .394 as a team. They will be able to get on base so hopefully Matt can strand alot of runners and get out of a few jams. Otherwise, he won't last long and won't give us a good shot to win.
Jose Contraras, El Mercenario, finished 2005 with an impressive 15-7 record and an ERA of 3.61. Like Clement, he walked about two people a game. He was able to go about 6.4 innings a game.
Unlike Clement, Contraras has a hot arm. He went 8 in his last start, allowing 2 runs. The start before he went the distance allowing only 1 run. Before that, he went 8 again and gave up only 1 run. He has gone 7 or more innings in 9 of his last 10 starts. Nine of his last 10 have also been Quality Starts with the only exception being a 7.2 inning outing against Minnesota in which he allowed 4 earned runs. He has won his last 8 starts in a row. But like we saw with the Patriots losing at home for the first time in 21 games, streaks end.
In his one start against us this year, he went 5.2 and allowed 3 runs in a 6-4 Chicago victory. He was a beneficiary of a poor start by Arroyo, great bullpen work, and the Red Sox leaving 11 men on. In that game, the Red Sox combined to go 10 for 35 (.286), hit two homers (Tek and Ortiz) and hit a double. We walked 6 times and were struck out 9 times. Eight of the hits we got were off Contreras but only 2 of the walks were off him. We left 6 men in scoring position. If we capitalize on opportunities Contreras gives us, we can get a big inning and put up a big number. Otherwise, he'll shut us down and we will lose.
The Red Sox have seen just about as much of Contraras as the White Sox have of Clement. We're 33/101 (.327). However, our on-base percentage is a very nice .427. We should work a walk each time through the lineup. Ortiz is 3 for 14 with a double and a homer. Damon is 4 for 14 with a homer. Manny is 3 for 13 with a double and a homer. Mueller is 6 for 13 with a double and a homer. Mueller's bat is getting hot too so look for him to have a nice day. Millar is 5 for 10 with a double and two homers. Tek is 3 for 8, Cora is 3 for 7, Tony G is 1 for 6, Trot is 2 for 4.
I think the Red Sox will be able to get alot of baserunners against El Mercanario and I think we will be able to put up some runs. We let his previous start against us slip but that was a rare lapse against this guy. It would be very nice to put up some runs, let Clement cruise and focus on throwing strikes, and wear down Chicago's bullpen, which is pretty dam good which would make it that much better to wear it down.
My prediction: Red Sox win 7-3
Saturday, October 01, 2005
WHO SUCKS MORE, FOX OR MILLAR?
OK, OK, its not all that bad. Because Cleveland lost, all we need to do is win tomorrow and we clinch the Wild Card. Even if we don't win and the Indians lose, we clinch the Wild Card. Even if we lose and Cleveland wins, we have a playoff game on Monday in Fenway to determine the Wild Card. Schilling goes tomorrow against who knows. The Yankees having clinched will probably rest alot of players including the recently disabled Mussina.
Kevin Millar is not a good baseball player. I'll begin this game analysis by stating this fact.
Wakefield began the game by giving up consecutive basehits. Giambi hit a ground ball to Graffanino who tossed to Renteria. Renteria eliminated A-Rod but for some reason, and it wasn't A-Rod because he enver touched him, Renteria lost his balance and couldn't make a throw to first to complete the double play. Jeter scored and there was a runner on. Sheffield came up and hit a 2 run bomb into the Monster Seats. 3-0 New York, but it could have been 2-0. Matsui grounded out and Cano flew out.
Damon walked to begin the bottom of the 1st. He then stole second. Renteria flew out but Damon tagged and moved to 3rd. Ortiz struck out. Manny came to the plate and turned on a pitch the landed on the roof of the Cask N' Flagon. 3-2 New York, but it couldv'e been 2-2. Kevin Millar, who sucks, flew out.
The Yankees struck again in the 2nd. Tino led off with a single. Bernie hit a line drive right at Millar's glove, but Millar, who sucks, couldn't snag it. The result was a double that gave the Yankees runners on 2nd and 3rd with 0 outs. Millar, who does suck, should have caught the ball and because he was closer to the bag than Tino, should have been able to step on the bag for a double play. Flaherty knocked in Tino with a SAC Fly, and moved Bernie to 3rd. Jeter hit another SAc Fly. The runners shouldn't have even been on base and the inning should have been over. But, Millar sucks. A-Rod ended the inning by flying out. 5-2 New York, but it could have been 2-2 if we had good defensive players.
Mueller walked to lead off the bottom of the 2nd. Mirabelli and Nixon each struck out. Graffanino singled. Damon walked. Renteria had the bases juiced with a full count. There was a questionable called strike that I felt was ball 4 but it was called a strike. Renteria foul tipped the 3-2 pitch into the mit of John Flaherty. The game was effectively over after this point.
Matsui hit a homer in the top of the 3rd to give New York a 6-2 lead. Ortiz doubled to begin the 3rd for Boston, but could not advance. Millar, who sucks, flew out. The Red Sox would get sporadic baserunners but wouldn't be able to mount anything significant. They got Johnson's pitch count up early but every inning, they made him work less and less which allowed him to extend his outing. We never got to their middle relief.
In order for us to not win the Wild Card, we will have to lose tomorrow, have Chicago lose, and lose a playoff game on Monday against the Indians. I don't think all three of these things will happen. But you never know.
Curt Schilling will go against Jaret Wright, not Mike Mussina. I doubt that guys like Sheffield, Rivera, or Gordon will be playing. No matter how poorly Curt pitches, we should be able to capitalize on the Yankees pitching unless Wright comes out with a great start.
Wright has an ERA of 5.97 with a 5-4 record. He has pitched 60.1 innings in 12 starts. He doesn't give up alot of homers but he has allowed 78 hits. He's also walked 27 batters. That is a WHIP of 1.74 which isn't that good. The Red Sox as a team are batting .338 in their careers against Wright. .349 if you don't count pitchers stats. Damon, Ortiz, Renteria, and Varitek all have great numbers against Wright.
The White Sox will send Brandon McCarthy against Scott Elarton in a pitching matchup that appears to be about even. The Indians look near dead though. The White Sox aren't playing balls to the wall and they're still beating Cleveland in Cleveland. Even if a playoff game is forced, I doubt the Indians will be able to muster any sort of effort against us. I could be wrong though.
#21 Boston College shutout Ball State 38-0 in Chestnut Hill. However, it was Ball State, it was at home, and Ball State had suspended 16 players for the game because of something to do with textbook loan violations. BC will return to reality and ACC play when they host #19 Virginia next week.
The Bruins begin their season on Wednesday against arch-rival Montreal in The Garden. It should be interesting to see how the Bruins look this year with a salary cap and new rules. We've also got some new faces but the core of the team is the same.
The Patriots will host the San Diego Chargers Sunday. LT Matt Light, Rb Kevin Faulk, and S Rodney Harrison will all be absent due to injuries for the Patriots. CBs Randall Gay, and Tyrone Poole, Chad Scott, and Duane Starks are all questionable. Tom Brady is probably with his right shoulder injury.
The 49ers and Arizona Cardinals will be playing the first ever regualr season NFL game outside of the USA. They will kickoff tomorrow in Mexico City. Next season, the NFL might have a regular season game in London's new Wemberly Stadium.
My alma-mater, Xaverian, the 7th ranked team in Massachusetts, shutout New Britain HS, the 3rd ranked team in Connecticutt 35-0 in New Britain. Remember this name: Chris Fox. He's the son of former Patriot Tim Fox and has a full ride to Boston College. He plays for Xaverian and is a great athlete with alot of potential.
Kevin Millar is not a good baseball player. I'll begin this game analysis by stating this fact.
Wakefield began the game by giving up consecutive basehits. Giambi hit a ground ball to Graffanino who tossed to Renteria. Renteria eliminated A-Rod but for some reason, and it wasn't A-Rod because he enver touched him, Renteria lost his balance and couldn't make a throw to first to complete the double play. Jeter scored and there was a runner on. Sheffield came up and hit a 2 run bomb into the Monster Seats. 3-0 New York, but it could have been 2-0. Matsui grounded out and Cano flew out.
Damon walked to begin the bottom of the 1st. He then stole second. Renteria flew out but Damon tagged and moved to 3rd. Ortiz struck out. Manny came to the plate and turned on a pitch the landed on the roof of the Cask N' Flagon. 3-2 New York, but it couldv'e been 2-2. Kevin Millar, who sucks, flew out.
The Yankees struck again in the 2nd. Tino led off with a single. Bernie hit a line drive right at Millar's glove, but Millar, who sucks, couldn't snag it. The result was a double that gave the Yankees runners on 2nd and 3rd with 0 outs. Millar, who does suck, should have caught the ball and because he was closer to the bag than Tino, should have been able to step on the bag for a double play. Flaherty knocked in Tino with a SAC Fly, and moved Bernie to 3rd. Jeter hit another SAc Fly. The runners shouldn't have even been on base and the inning should have been over. But, Millar sucks. A-Rod ended the inning by flying out. 5-2 New York, but it could have been 2-2 if we had good defensive players.
Mueller walked to lead off the bottom of the 2nd. Mirabelli and Nixon each struck out. Graffanino singled. Damon walked. Renteria had the bases juiced with a full count. There was a questionable called strike that I felt was ball 4 but it was called a strike. Renteria foul tipped the 3-2 pitch into the mit of John Flaherty. The game was effectively over after this point.
Matsui hit a homer in the top of the 3rd to give New York a 6-2 lead. Ortiz doubled to begin the 3rd for Boston, but could not advance. Millar, who sucks, flew out. The Red Sox would get sporadic baserunners but wouldn't be able to mount anything significant. They got Johnson's pitch count up early but every inning, they made him work less and less which allowed him to extend his outing. We never got to their middle relief.
In order for us to not win the Wild Card, we will have to lose tomorrow, have Chicago lose, and lose a playoff game on Monday against the Indians. I don't think all three of these things will happen. But you never know.
Curt Schilling will go against Jaret Wright, not Mike Mussina. I doubt that guys like Sheffield, Rivera, or Gordon will be playing. No matter how poorly Curt pitches, we should be able to capitalize on the Yankees pitching unless Wright comes out with a great start.
Wright has an ERA of 5.97 with a 5-4 record. He has pitched 60.1 innings in 12 starts. He doesn't give up alot of homers but he has allowed 78 hits. He's also walked 27 batters. That is a WHIP of 1.74 which isn't that good. The Red Sox as a team are batting .338 in their careers against Wright. .349 if you don't count pitchers stats. Damon, Ortiz, Renteria, and Varitek all have great numbers against Wright.
The White Sox will send Brandon McCarthy against Scott Elarton in a pitching matchup that appears to be about even. The Indians look near dead though. The White Sox aren't playing balls to the wall and they're still beating Cleveland in Cleveland. Even if a playoff game is forced, I doubt the Indians will be able to muster any sort of effort against us. I could be wrong though.
#21 Boston College shutout Ball State 38-0 in Chestnut Hill. However, it was Ball State, it was at home, and Ball State had suspended 16 players for the game because of something to do with textbook loan violations. BC will return to reality and ACC play when they host #19 Virginia next week.
The Bruins begin their season on Wednesday against arch-rival Montreal in The Garden. It should be interesting to see how the Bruins look this year with a salary cap and new rules. We've also got some new faces but the core of the team is the same.
The Patriots will host the San Diego Chargers Sunday. LT Matt Light, Rb Kevin Faulk, and S Rodney Harrison will all be absent due to injuries for the Patriots. CBs Randall Gay, and Tyrone Poole, Chad Scott, and Duane Starks are all questionable. Tom Brady is probably with his right shoulder injury.
The 49ers and Arizona Cardinals will be playing the first ever regualr season NFL game outside of the USA. They will kickoff tomorrow in Mexico City. Next season, the NFL might have a regular season game in London's new Wemberly Stadium.
My alma-mater, Xaverian, the 7th ranked team in Massachusetts, shutout New Britain HS, the 3rd ranked team in Connecticutt 35-0 in New Britain. Remember this name: Chris Fox. He's the son of former Patriot Tim Fox and has a full ride to Boston College. He plays for Xaverian and is a great athlete with alot of potential.
Friday, September 30, 2005
CLEVELAND LOSES TO WHITE SOX BENCH
So here are the possible situations:
If we win on both Saturday and Sunday, we win the division outright and play Anaheim.
If we win on either Saturday or Sunday and the Indians lose on both days, we tie the division and play New York on Monday to determine the division winner and if we lose, we still win the Wild Card.
If we win on either Saturday or Sunday and the Indians win on either Saturday or Sunday, we force a playoff for the division against New York and if we lose, we still win the Wild Card.
If we win on either Saturday or Sunday and the Indians win on both Saturday and Sunday, we play New York in New York for the division. If we win, we win the division. If we lose, we play Cleveland for the Wild Card.
If we lose both Saturday and Sunday and the Indians win on either Saturday or Sunday, we lose the division and play Cleveland.
If we lose both Saturday and Sunday and the Indians win on both Saturday and Sunday, we lose the division and lose the Wild Card.
The only way we are completely out of the playoffs come Monday morning is if we lose our last 2 games and Cleveland wins their last 2. If we win on either Saturday or Sunday, we will at least have a playoff game against New York and/or Cleveland and at most, clinch a playoff berth.
Tomorrow is Game 2 of The Big Series. Randy Johnson against Tim Wakefield. The last two times these pitchers clashed, it was a 1-0 Yankee win. I anticipate another pitcher's duel. Johnson has beaten us 4 times this year and Wakefield is on a tear. Both of these guys are big game pitchers that are capable of digging down for that extra something.
If we want to win this game, we need our lefties to hit Johnson. Career wise, Damon is 2 for 15, Ortiz is 2 for 14, Olerud is 0 for 5. That's 4 for 34 or .118. Overrall Red Sox hitters are 44 for 223 (.197). We're going to need to build up some runs the hard way against Johnson. I'd like to see Alex Cora in the lineup. I'd like to see the Red Sox build up Johnsons pitch count and get him out of the game.
Jon Garland will take the mound for the White Sox against the Indians. If Chicago, who will probably start more than 2 of their typical starters like they did on Friday, beats Cleveland, there is no way we will be out of the playoff picture come Monday morning. The same goes for if we win. If both of these things happen, we're in the playoffs no matter what.
Speaking of the playoffs, the White Sox clinched homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. The Angels are a game behind us and New York for the 2nd seed in the AL post-season. The Cardinals, Braves, and Padres have all clinched their divisions. The Cardinals need to win their last 2 games in order to be the sole 100 win team this season. The Padres are one entire game above .500. The Astros are 1 game above Philadelphia for the NL Wild Card.
If we win on both Saturday and Sunday, we win the division outright and play Anaheim.
If we win on either Saturday or Sunday and the Indians lose on both days, we tie the division and play New York on Monday to determine the division winner and if we lose, we still win the Wild Card.
If we win on either Saturday or Sunday and the Indians win on either Saturday or Sunday, we force a playoff for the division against New York and if we lose, we still win the Wild Card.
If we win on either Saturday or Sunday and the Indians win on both Saturday and Sunday, we play New York in New York for the division. If we win, we win the division. If we lose, we play Cleveland for the Wild Card.
If we lose both Saturday and Sunday and the Indians win on either Saturday or Sunday, we lose the division and play Cleveland.
If we lose both Saturday and Sunday and the Indians win on both Saturday and Sunday, we lose the division and lose the Wild Card.
The only way we are completely out of the playoffs come Monday morning is if we lose our last 2 games and Cleveland wins their last 2. If we win on either Saturday or Sunday, we will at least have a playoff game against New York and/or Cleveland and at most, clinch a playoff berth.
Tomorrow is Game 2 of The Big Series. Randy Johnson against Tim Wakefield. The last two times these pitchers clashed, it was a 1-0 Yankee win. I anticipate another pitcher's duel. Johnson has beaten us 4 times this year and Wakefield is on a tear. Both of these guys are big game pitchers that are capable of digging down for that extra something.
If we want to win this game, we need our lefties to hit Johnson. Career wise, Damon is 2 for 15, Ortiz is 2 for 14, Olerud is 0 for 5. That's 4 for 34 or .118. Overrall Red Sox hitters are 44 for 223 (.197). We're going to need to build up some runs the hard way against Johnson. I'd like to see Alex Cora in the lineup. I'd like to see the Red Sox build up Johnsons pitch count and get him out of the game.
Jon Garland will take the mound for the White Sox against the Indians. If Chicago, who will probably start more than 2 of their typical starters like they did on Friday, beats Cleveland, there is no way we will be out of the playoff picture come Monday morning. The same goes for if we win. If both of these things happen, we're in the playoffs no matter what.
Speaking of the playoffs, the White Sox clinched homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. The Angels are a game behind us and New York for the 2nd seed in the AL post-season. The Cardinals, Braves, and Padres have all clinched their divisions. The Cardinals need to win their last 2 games in order to be the sole 100 win team this season. The Padres are one entire game above .500. The Astros are 1 game above Philadelphia for the NL Wild Card.
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