WHAT WE LEARNED IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL

The first week of the season is loaded with blowouts and aberrations. And for some reason, the slaughter of lowly I-AA opponents impresses voters and pundits. Here are some of the more meaningful lessons from Week 1:

1. PITT WAS OVERRATED, UTAH WAS UNDERRATED

I picked the Pitt/Utah game incorrectly, but in my Big East preview, I did mention that the Panthers have a great offense, but struggle to finish drives with touchdowns. That's what lead them into overtime with the Utes, and the rest was just Utah being better. The Mountain West should be thoroughly exciting this season, and Versus must be pissing their pants that they have a TV deal with that conference.

2. MICHIGAN MIGHT BE RELEVANT

Although Denard Robinson had a Heismanesque day (1 passing TD, 1 rushing TD, 197 yards on the ground), it was still just one day. I'll give credit for Michigan crushing a legitimate team in UConn, but I'm hesitant to think they have a chance of being important down the stretch.

3. OLE MISS SUCKS

There's been a campaign in Oxford to make Admiral Ackbar the new mascot for the Ole Miss Rebels. What would he have to say about Ole Miss's game with Jacksonville State?



The Rebels didn't learn from Michigan/Appalachian State. Don't schedule good I-AA teams. Ever. It's a no-win scenario. The JSU Gamecocks were 8-3 last season, but 2 of those losses came to Georgia Tech and Florida State. Don't schedule Jacksonville State. Schedule Washington State.

4. KANSAS SUCKS
If their former headcoach hadn't been morbidly obese, I don't think KU would have been as overrated as they were a few seasons ago. Well, reality is back in Lawrence, Kansas. Not only are the North Dakota Bisons a I-AA team. They're a crappy I-AA team. They won three games last year. So Kansas gets double shame for this one.

5. THE MOUNTAIN WEST WINNER SHOULD MAKE THE BCS
Utah upset Pitt. TCU beat Oregon State. And BYU beat Washington. Why is it that the winner of the Big East gets an automatic BCS berth, but not the winner of the Mountain West? It's bullshit.

6. THE BIG EAST WINNER SHOULDN'T MAKE THE BCS
4-4. That's how the Big East did in Week 1. Those wins came against Norfolk State, Coastal Carolina, Akron, and Stony Brook. The Big East was 1-4 against I-A teams.

7. BOISE STATE IS EVERYONE'S FAVORITE TEAM

You might not like the blue turf, or the incessant coverage/talk, but you should like Boise State. Not only are they fun to watch, they have the potential to truly bust the BCS system this year. After beating Tech last night, if they run the table, yet somehow aren't given a national title shot (maybe an undefeated Big XII team and a 1 loss SEC team get there instead, it's very possible), then maybe public outrage will be enough to change the current postseason format.

WHITE OUT

On the List of Reasons the Sox Didn't Make the Playoffs in 2010, Jonathan Papelbon won't be at the top. But he'll still be on the list. Papelbon blew his 7th Save Sunday afternoon. That's a career high, along with his ERA and Losses. He's still an adequate closer, but he's not the unhittable near-guarantee that he once was.

It's a shame that when the Sox actually score some runs, it seems like the bullpen blows it, or Beckett allows 9 hits and can't get out of the 7th inning. And it goes both ways. When the pitching keeps an opponent to 3 runs, the Sox offense can't muster more than 1.

The Sox have 25 games to make up 7.5 in the standings. And the Yankees, with whom the Sox have 6 remaining head-to-head meetings, are an even more unreachable 10 games ahead.

ESPN lists a playoff percentage on their MLB Standings page. It's based on the situation each team finds itself in. For instance, the Yankees currently have a 99.5% chance of making the playoffs. The Red Sox have a 1.1% chance. That sounds larger than it actually is. You're twice as likely to win a game of roulette.

The Sox host the Rays for 3 at Fenway, and anything but a sweep will be a failure. If the Sox sweep, it's a 4.5 game deficit with 22 games left. That actually sounds possible, doesn't it?

Lester opposes Jeff Niemann tonight.

Photo Credit:
Getty Images

SEC FOOTBALL PREVIEW*

Now we come to the grand daddy of all conferences: The Southeastern. This league is ridiculously deep. The big powers have lost a little bit. Florida lost Tebow. Alabama lost most of its defense. So that's leveled the playing field. Honestly, there are about 6 teams with a legit shot at winning the SEC title. Every team has a tough schedule, and every team will be tested more than Lance Armstrong's pee.

1. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE

It's kind of silly to think that someone could repeat as SEC Champion. That hasn't been done since 1997-98. But there's nobody better to pick than Bama. The Tide return 8 offensive starters, including Mark Ingram, who ran for 1,658 yards and 17 TDs. But their biggest strength was defense. They were 2nd in the country in scoring defense, rushing defense, and total defense. However, only 1 starter returns. The d-line does have some experienced players, but the defensive backfield is brand new.

Key Games:
9/11 vs. Penn State
9/25 @ Arkansas
10/2 vs. Florida
10/9 @ South Carolina
11/26 vs. Auburn

Prediction: 11-2, SEC Champion, SEC West winner

2. FLORIDA GATORS

It's a whole new cast of skill-position players for Florida. But the offensive line returns 4/5 starters, and that's always a big help. They'll be deep at RB. The WRs need to show something, though. Only 5 defensive starters return. The D is talented, but green. They have the athleticism, but will they have the cohesion and wherewithal to win the big games? No. They'll lose twice to Alabama.

Key games:
10/2 @ Alabama
10/30 vs. Georgia (in Jacksonville, FL)
11/13 vs. South Carolina
11/27 @ Florida State

Prediction: 10-3, SEC East winner

3. GEORGIA BULLDOGS

8 offensive starters return, including 4/5 of the line. But the QB position is a huge question mark. The defense is bad, but perhaps a whole new set of assistant coaches and the implementation of a 3-4 defense can help change that. I think Georgia will be a lot like last year. They'll take care of business against bad teams, and average teams. But every good team they play will beat them.

Key Games:
9/11 @ South Carolina
10/30 vs. Florida (in Jacksonville, FL)
11/13 @ Auburn
11/27 vs. Georgia Tech

4. ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS

Do not underestimate Arkansas. They were 9th in the country in scoring offense last year, as well as 10th in passing and 20th total. And they return 9 offensive starters, including QB Ryan Mallet, who threw 3,624 yards, 30 TDs, and only 7 INTs. They had the highest scoring offense in the SEC, putting up 36.0 per game. They have some excellent WRs, but need to get their rushing game on track. And the defense needs to improve. Although they did rush the passer and force plenty of turnovers.

Key Games:
9/18 @ Georgia
9/25 vs. Alabama
10/16 @ Auburn
11/6 @ South Carolina

Prediction: 9-3

5. SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS

SC returns 7 starters on offense and defense. But that offense was 102nd in scoring last year. Yikes. And only 2/5 of the line returns. The defensive line is excellent, but the DBs need to improve.

Key Hames:
9/11 vs. Georgia
9/25 @ Auburn
10/9 vs. Alabama
11/13 @ Florida
11/27 @ Clemson

Prediction: 9-3

6. AUBURN TIGERS

Auburn returns 8 starters on each side of the ball. Their offense was a strength, as it ranked 17th in scoring and 16th in yardage. But they need the QB position to be settled, and the running game will be a worry. Auburn's mediocre defense keeps them a 2nd tier SEC team. They were 3-5 in conference games last year, and that will likely continue in 2010. But their schedule does provide them with home dates against most of their toughest opponents. That's about the best you could ask for in the SEC.

Key Games:
9/18 vs. Clemson
9/25 vs. South Carolina
10/16 vs. Arkansas
11/13 vs. Georgia
10/26 @ Alabama

The remainder of the teams are listed alphabetically...

KENTUCKY WILDCATS

For the first time since 1912, UK has compiled four straight 7+ win seasons. However, the Wildcats were 12-20 in SEC play during that stretch. For 2010, Kentucky boasts a good secondary, accompanied by an under-sized Front 7, and a boring offense.

Prediction: 7-5

LSU TIGERS

The offense in Baton Rouge needs to contribute something. They were 112th in the country last year, and only 2/5 of the offensive line returns. Four defensive starters return. But perhaps freshman DE Barkevious Mingo's ridiculously awesome name will save them.

Prediction: 7-5

OLE MISS REBELS

Left Tackle Bradley Sowell. That's Ole Miss's only returning starter on offense. An offense that had been a respectable 39th in scoring, but now needs rebuilding. The defense will need to lead the team. An excellent d-line should help. A manageable non-conference schedule will fluff Ole Miss's record.

Prediction: 8-4

MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS

These guys wouldn't be pushovers in any other conference. They might even be noticed on the national scene. As it is, they're that one team you struggle to remember as the 12th member of the SEC.

Prediction: 4-8

TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS

Good WRs are the only known positives on the offensive side of the ball. There'll be a new QB, and the RB situation isn't too promising. However, the solid defense won't be a liability, and might keep the Vols in some games. Unfortunately, the schedule is brutal. Just about every contender in the SEC will get to wallop the Volunteers.

Prediction: 5-7

VANDERBILT COMMODORES

Vandy offers a respectable defense, but a truly dreadful offense. And that's why these girls are so forlorn. No o-line starters return, and their QB threw 4 TDs and 7 INTs in '09.

Prediction: 3-9

HANGING AROUND

The Red Sox narrowly avoided another disaster in Baltimore, and thankfully got out of the Mid-Atlantic before Earl struck. Although Friday night's game against Chicago might be in jeopardy.

Daisuke was great, then good, then awful. He didn't allow a hit until the 4th. He didn't allow an extra basehit until the 5th. He didn't allow a run until the 6th. But he allowed 4 of those, and very quickly.

Atchison saved the day with a stunning 2 inning, 3 strikeout performance. Okajima got an out, and Papelbon pitched around some singles to record his 35th Save.

But as much as I criticize Daisuke, you don't need to throw 3 hit shutouts to beat the Orioles. The O's will let you score 5 runs with no problem, so 5.1 innings and 4 earned isn't bad. Then again, Daisuke's last Quality Start came on August 5th.

I've already conceded the Wild Card and Divisional races. But I consider the next few weeks as a preview for 2011. And part of that preview is seeing Daisuke pitch. And he's still got weird nights like this one, throwing 94 pitches to get 17 outs, and completely dissolving in a matter of minutes.

The Red Sox host Manny Ramirez and the White Sox. They may also host Hurricane Earl.

Clay Buchholz faces John Danks tonight, at least as I'm writing this, that's the plan.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS: WEEK 1*

It starts tonight. Unfortunately, college football's regular season might be better than its postseason. There aren't many great games this weekend, with most of the Top 25 playing the likes of Florida A&M, Eastern Illinois, Tennessee Tech, and Samford. But there are a few really interesting matchups to enjoy. Here are my picks for Week 1:

Tonight - 8:30pm - Versus
#15 Pitt @ Utah
This is an early test for the Panthers. Utah's lost some talent, but they've still won 34 of their last 37 games. I'll give credit to Pitt for making the trip to Salt Lake City. I'll also give them credit for the win.

Pitt wins 27-17

Saturday - 3:30pm - ABC
UConn @ Michigan
The Huskies are my pick to win the Big East. And Michigan sucks. UConn squeezes a win from Ann Arbor.

UConn wins 30-24

Saturday - 7:45pm - ESPN
#24 Oregon State vs. #6 TCU (in Arlington, TX)
This is a big test for both teams. TCU has BCS aspirations again. So does Oregon State. Both teams are good, but Oregon State's lack of defense will be their undoing.

TCU wins 35-24



Saturday - 8:00pm - ABC
#21 LSU vs. #18 North Carolina (in Atlanta, GA)
UNC has lots of potential to win the ACC this year. Playing LSU is a nice little test. The same can be said for LSU. I'm unsure about this one, but when in doubt, pick the SEC to win every time. Especially in the Georgia Dome.

LSU wins 24-20



Monday - 4:00pm - ESPN
Navy vs. Maryland (in Baltimore, MD)
Maryland has some positive buzz, but Navy will squash that rumor before it builds up any momentum. I love Navy's box scores, with all the rushing, and the 10 passes thrown. That's college football, baby.



Monday - 8:00pm - ESPN
#3 Boise State vs. #10 Virginia Tech (in Landover, MD)
How often does the nation's college football attention fall squarely on Maryland? Answer: when two teams from outside of Maryland play in Landover. I think VT is just slightly overrated. Boise State is not.

Boise State wins 28-24

PAC-10 FOOTBALL PREVIEW*

If you were calling the plays for USC, why wouldn't you go for 2 after every touchdown, never punt, and frequently onside kick? What do you have to lose? The Trojans can win the Pac-10, but can't play in the postseason. But I suspect they'll play a role in determining who gets to the Rose Bowl.

1. OREGON DUCKS

Losing QB Jeremiah Masoli hurts. But all 5 o-linemen return. And RB LaMichael James will be back after a 1,546 yard, 14 TD freshman campaign. The defense is this team's strength. Excellent LBs, small but quick d-line, and adept DBs. They didn't lose at home last year, and haven't lost in Eugene since September of '08. Unfortunately for them, they play USC and Oregon State on the road.

Key Games:
10/30 @ USC
12/4 @ Oregon State

Prediction: 10-2, Pac-10 Champions

2. OREGON STATE BEAVERS

There'll have to be a new QB in Corvallis, but the star will be RB Jacquizz Rodgers, who ran for 1,440 yards, 21 TDs, and also had 522 receiving yards. 4/5 of the o-line returns, and the Beavers will likely improve what was the 26th highest scoring offense in the country last year. However, the defense will ultimately bar them from the Rose Bowl. They have no pass rush, and the LBs are weak. I'll give them credit for a ballsy non-conference schedule. And in something that might be deemed karma, they get to play USC and Oregon at home.

Key Games:
9/4 vs. TCU (in Arlington, TX)
9/25 @ Boise State
11/20 vs. USC
12/4 vs. Oregon

Prediction: 9-3

3. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TROJANS

I'm not sold on Matt Barkley. His 15 TD, 14 INT campaign was pretty bad. The Trojans were in unfamiliar territory in '09. They were 69th in scoring offense, and 55th in total offense. But their defense was even worse. They allowed 55, 47, and 36 points to Stanford, Oregon, and Oregon State, respectively. But they return their front 7 pretty much intact, so they should be older and wiser. The secondary is brand new. But a manageable non-conference schedule, and the mediocrity of the Pac-10 will inflate USC's win total. But they won't beat either team from Oregon.

Key Games:
10/30 vs. Oregon
11/20 @ Oregon State

Prediction: 10-3.

The rest of the conference is listed alphabetically...

ARIZONA WILDCATS

QB Nick Foles leads the way. He threw for 2,486 yards last year and was a pleasant surprise in Tucson. They return some solid WRs for him to play catch with. The Wildcats have some excellent pass-rushing ends, but there are major holes at LB. That being said, Arizona will build on their back-to-back bowl seasons and continue to progress.

Prediction: 7-5

ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS:

ASU features an awful offense, that was 91st in scoring last year. On the bright side, they only return 3 starters. They do have quality kickoff and return units. And the defense is outstanding. They led the Pac-10 in rushing, passing, and total defense. They were 2nd in scoring. Four of the Front 7 return, although the secondary will be quite vulnerable.

Prediction: 5-7

CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS

Don't expect much from Cal. They're definitely #2 in the Bay Area, and might be #4 in all of California. Although RB Shane Vereen will be fun to watch (almost as fun as saying his name out loud). He ran for 952 yards and 12 scores despite only starting 4 games last year. They desperately need receivers, and their defense is a mess. Particularly the defensive backs.

Prediction: 6-6

STANFORD CARDINAL

I think losing Gerhart hurts a lot more than people think. It's the Pac-10, so with a competetive offense, and a forgettable defense, Stanford will still contend. But against the likes of USC or the Oregon teams, Stanford will be blown away.

Prediction: 8-4

UCLA BRUINS

"Progress" is the word for UCLA. And they need a lot more of that on offense, especially with the ground attack. The Bruins were 97th in rushing last year. That must change. They had a good 2009 campaign, but lost some vital defensive leaders. Then again, they have good DBs, and a few key guys remain.

Prediction: 6-6

WASHINGTON HUSKIES

NFL prospect Jake Locker returns for his final attempt to get Washington to a bowl game. He threw for 2,800 yards and 21 scores last year, and holds almost every quarterbacking record at the school. He's surrounded by talent on offense, with 9 returning starters, including RB Chris Polk who ran for 1,113 yards his freshman season. The defense, however, is shaky. The d-line is weak. But the secondary might be a pleasant surprise. Unfortunately, Locker's college career will end with the regular season finale at Washington State, and not in a bowl game.

Prediction: 4-8

WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS

Last alphabetically, and last in the Pac-10. The Huskies haven't won a game played outside of Washington since October of 2006. They were outscored by an average of 38.5 to 12 last year. Their only win of '09 was a 30-27 victory over SMU, who they'll play on the road in 2010. Montana State should help double their win total to 2.

Prediction: 2-10

BALTIMORE BAILOUT

The Sox avoided disaster thanks to a 6 run 7th inning, capped by a pair of homers from Scutaro and Beltre. Lester struggled early, but thankfully settled into a groove, going 6 innings and grinding out win #15.

So that's good, I suppose. But the Yankees and Rays also won. The Sox have 29 games remaining, and a 7 game deficit to close. In case you hadn't already figured it out, the Sox need a miracle more unheard of then their 0-3 comeback in '04.

Matsuzaka faces Brad Bergesen tonight. Unless the Rays or Yankees lose 8 in a row, every game from here on out is a must-win.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

BIG EAST FOOTBALL PREVIEW*

The Big East is the last old school conference left. No title game. Just 8 teams, all playing each other, and the best conference record wins. There's something wholesome about that.

1. CONNECTICUT HUSKIES

UConn will be returning 8 starters on an offensive unit that was 27th in scoring last year. That includes 4/5 offensive linemen. The Huskies also return 8 defensive starters, including all 4 defensive linemen. Despite a shady secondary, this spells disaster for the rest of the Big East. UConn lost 5 games last year, but never by more than 4 points. They have a nice out-of-conference schedule, and they get to host Cincinnati, Pitt, and West Virginia.

Key Games:
10/29 vs. West Virginia
11/11 vs. Pitt
11/27 vs. Cincinnati

Prediction: 10-2, Big East Champions

2. PITTSBURGH PANTHERS

Pitt had a nice 10-3 season last year, but fell 1 point shy of beating Cincinnati. They're ranked 15th, and the experts think that Dave Wannstedt will claim his first Big East title. But I'm not completely sold. RB Dion Lewis is a beast, rushing for 1,799 yards last season, and there are playmakers on both sides of the ball. But I don't think this team has the character to win the big game. They also have a tough non-conference schedule that might demoralize them before they even get into Big East play. They also have 6 road games. In this day and age, who plays the same number of home and away games?

Key Games:
9/2 @ Utah
9/23 vs. Miami (FL)
10/9 @ Notre Dame
11/11 @ UConn
11/26 vs. West Virginia
12/4 @ Cincinnati

Prediction: 9-3

3. CINCINNATI BEARCATS

People are down on Cincinnati, even though they were 12-1 last year. It's true that they lost their QB and their head coach. But Butch Jones will run a similar spread offense for QB Zach Collaros, who excelled when Tony Pike missed 4 starts last year. The defense is a worry, and the offense might not be able to score the 38.6 points per game needed to bail them out. Cincinnati will be a tough opponent, but will ultimately fall just a bit short of winning the Conference.

Key Games:
9/25 vs. Oklahoma
11/13 @ West Virginia
11/27 @ UConn
12/4 vs. Pitt

Prediction: 9-3

4. WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS

Watch out for WVU. I have them ranked 4th in the Big East here, but the difference between these top 4 teams is very slight. Noel Devine returns for his senior season in Morgantown. While the Mountaineers have to introduce a new QB, rushing is their bread and butter. Thhey led the Big East and were 24th in the country with 186.4 yards per game on the ground. However, they need to punch the ball into the end zone more. They were 67th in scoring offense. Defensively, they were solid, and return 10 starters. That side of the ball should do well enough to keep WVU in almost every game. Playing LSU in Baton Rouge might cost them a win, but after that game, their remaining schedule will seem like gravy. And trips to Storrs and Pittsburgh will be child's play.

Key Games:
9/25 @ LSU
10/29 @ UConn
11/13 vs. Cincinnati
11/26 @ Pitt

Prediction: 8-4

The rest of the Conference is listed alphabetically...

LOUISVILLE CARDINALS

New coach Charlie Strong will revitalize the Cardinals and bring them back to national relevancy. He just won't be able to do it overnight. The offense is awful. There's no reliable QB. Who knows what the ground attack will do. The defense has holes. This is a rebuilding project, and don't expect much from them. But they might provide a surprising win to shake up the Conference title race.

Prediction: 5-7

RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS

Sophomore Tom Savage is back after a decent freshman season. And his 11 starts make him the most experienced QB in the Conference. There are some serviceable skill players, but a questionable offensive line in front of them. The defense is fast, returns 6 starters, and they get a strong push up front. They won't be easy to beat.

Prediction: 8-4

SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS

This is a preview season for USF. They'll contend and compete in Conference play. But next year, they could be extremely dangerous. Sophomore QB BJ Daniels threw for 1,983 yards last year, and ran for 772 more. The defense only returns 3 starters, but there are several promising talents at key positions. The schedule is a bit too rocky, though. Trips to Gainesville, Miami, Morgantown, and Cincinnati will hurt USF's record. But again, watch out for them.

Prediction: 7-5

SYRACUSE ORANGE

This team is awful. But their schedule is a joke. Back-to-back games against Maine and Colgate. That'd be intimidating for a hockey team, but not for football. The offense is a joke. The defense returns 10 starters, but that unit was 81st in scoring last year, so is it a good thing that they're all back? Thanks to the schedule, there's an outside chance that Cuse makes a bowl game.

Prediction: 5-7