One Year Later, the Red Sox-Dodgers Deal Still a Mistake for LA

The Dodgers are the best team in baseball right now. It's almost a year since they acquired Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Josh Beckett from the Red Sox. Both the Red Sox and Dodgers have improved dramatically since that deal. The Sox lead their division, the Dodgers have played .800+ baseball their last 50 games. So both teams made a good deal. Right?

No.

Last year's colossal salary dump was good for the Red Sox. It gave the team freedom to spend on role players, and it banished Josh Beckett from the clubhouse. For the Dodgers, they took on massive payroll and what have they gotten from it? Beckett has been a bust. Carl Crawford has hit 5 homeruns this season. He's hitting .291 and has stolen 11 bases. He's back to being a decent player, but hardly worth the $20 million he gets paid. He's knocked in 21 runs. I know he's a leadoff hitter in the NL, but 21 RBI? Really?

Adrian Gonzalez is doing well. He leads the Dodgers in average (.296), homeruns (16), and RBI (77). He leads these categories because Hanley Ramirez (.348 BA), and Yasiel Puig (.346) don't have as many at-bats.

Before Puig burst from his chrysalis in June and began his methodical campaign of destruction in the National League, the Dodgers were 23-32. They were 13-13 in April, despite Adrian Gonzalez's 18 RBI and .398 OBP that month. They were 10-17 in May despite Gonzalez's 22 RBI, 5 HRs, and .886 OPS.

In other words, Adrian Gonzalez, even when hitting well, wasn't enough to win. The team needed Puig. And pitching. And Hanley Ramirez. And pitching. Pitching is why this team has won as many games as it has.

Clayton Kershaw is 12-7 with a 1.72 ERA. He's thrown 10 straight Quality Starts, dating back to late June. 22 Quality Starts in total.

Supporting him are Zach Greinke (12-3, 2.91 ERA, 9-1 in his last 10 decisions) and Hyun-Jin Ryu (12-4, 2.95 ERA). As a team the Dodgers have 71 Quality Starts. Their team ERA since the All-Star break is 2.25, best in the Majors. And in August it's 2.05. They've converted 93% of save opportunities since the All-Star break. That's why their winning.

How unimportant is Adrian Gonzalez to the Dodgers' success? August has been his worst month of the season (.317 OBP, .390 SLG, .707 OPS, 1 HR, 12 RBI, 4 walks, 13 strikeouts). The Dodgers are 17-3 in August. Gonzalez did well in April and May and the team lost. He's slowed down in August as his team has sped up. He's just not that important to them.

Then again, Carl Crawford is doing well in August (.380 OBP, .791 OPS), so maybe he's the reason the Dodgers are kicking so much ass.

Or maybe it's Kershaw (1.23 ERA in August). Puig (.886 OPS in August). Greinke (4-0, 0.96 ERA in August), Ryu (3-1, 2.03 ERA in August), and the rest of the Dodgers who were NOT acquired in last year's mega-trade.

On the field, that deal didn't hurt them. Both Gonzalez and Crawford have certainly helped, albeit at a ghastly price. The deal hasn't helped them that much, though. And certainly not as much as other deals they've made. Here are the transactions that have mad the difference for the Dodgers:

June 2006: Drafting Clayton Kershaw
June 2012: Signing Yasiel Puig as an amateur free agent (making 29 GMs kick themselves)
July 2012: Trading with the Marlins for Hanley Ramirez
December 2012: Purchasing the contract of Hyun-Jin Ryu from South Korean team Hanwah
December 2012: Signing Zach Greinke as a free agent

So the Dodgers did make some important deals in 2012. The Gonzalez-Crawford-Beckett deal was perhaps 5th or 6th most important on that list. But they had Gonzalez and Crawford when they sucked in April and May. It wasn't until Puig emerged, Ramirez got healthy, and the pitchers gelled that the team started winning. Gonzalez and Crawford have marginally helped in that winning, but the Dodgers could have acquired marginal contributors for much less than the $42 million those two cost per season.

The addition of Gonzalez and Crawford has been meaningless to the Dodgers' success.

So in conclusion, last year's deal between the Red Sox and Dodgers was still, in and of itself, a bad deal for the Dodgers. It only seems good now because of the other deals the Dodgers made. Those deals are why they are as red hot (or blue hot) as they are.

Goodbye, Bobby V

It's official. Bobby Valentine is no longer the Manager of the Red Sox. There's no word if he'll stay with the team in the other roles he took upon himself: psychologist, motivational speaker, media manipulator, philosopher, food inventor. We know he won't be filling out any lineups, showing up late to the clubhouse, or forgetting which hand the opposing pitcher pitches with.

Bobby Valentine deserves blame for this 69 win season. Not all of it, not most of it, but a piece of the blame pie sits on his plate. More importantly, any future success will not be likely, and might not even be possible with him as the Manager. He's too distracting and too intrusive. He's a bad Manager. Maybe that's why the Red Sox were the only MLB team willing to hire him since 2002.

Valentine got fired not because 2012 was his fault, but because he's an obstacle to success in 2013.

I don't remember him doing anything smart. He called out Kevin Youkilis, then retreated. He didn't call out players like Josh Beckett. He made game decisions with pitchers, particularly Jon Lester, based on their self-esteem. He brought up subjects (such as Youkilis) with the media, then complained that media was talking about said subjects. It was as if he wanted to make his statement, convince everyone he was right, and move on without any further discussion.

The players didn't respect him from the start and why should they? I didn't respect him. The owners were wrong to give the players an audience for their grievances, but that doesn't change the fact that Valentine is not a respectable leader.

He's a clown. A buffoon. A quack. On a serious note I think he has some deep psychological issues. He has no actual confidence, just a mask of arrogance.

I wonder if he'll show up to Red Sox Spring Training next year wearing a fake mustache.

How Good Is CC Sabathia?

Remember when the Yankees signed CC Sabathia? Remember how Red Sox Nation arrogantly laughed and mocked how much the Yanks spent in the off-season between 2008 and 2009, adding Sabathia and Mark Teixeira? What fools we were.

Since then, the Yankees have made the playoffs 4 straight years, and even won a World Series. The Red Sox made the playoffs once in that same period, losing an ALDS in 3 games.

As a Yankee, Sabathia never wore out and got injured like we in Red Sox Nation figured he would. He's 74-29 in New York, with a 3.22 ERA. He's a 3 time All-Star and finished in the top 5 of Cy Young voting 3 times.

In that same time frame, Josh Beckett won 41 games for the Red Sox. With a 4.21 ERA. Sabathia has also thrown about 200 more innings than Beckett these last 4 years. And even though he weighs around 300 pounds, I'd argue that Sabathia is in better shape than Beckett.

We were so arrogant after 2008. The Sox had won a World Series in '07 and were close to getting to another one in 2008. Maybe the Red Sox as a team were just as arrogant. The players, the GM, the manager, and the owners all thought they had the winning formula in place.

They plainly did not. The Yankees did, and do.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

One Thing That Bugs Me About the Big Red Sox Trade

From a baseball standpoint, the Red Sox freeing up salary and roster space makes sense. Fixing the problems with this team required more than just a few tweaks and some small additions. And to build a new foundation, the old rotting foundation needed to be completely removed.

From a business standpoint, the move made sense. The fans were sick of this team losing, and utterly disgusted with their attitude. So much so that a Facebook group with over 11,000 likes has been spawned, urging fans to boycott the team after only 4 current players attended Johnny Pesky's funeral. The fans were fed up, and the Sox were in danger of losing customers.

It's the business standpoint that bugs me. Lucchino and the Sox made this drastic move in order to keep people interested in the team, not to win. So while I wholeheartedly support and celebrate the decision, the motivation behind the decision irks me.

The goals of winning and selling aren't mutually exclusive. But when the primary goal of a team is to sell a brand, then things can go wrong. You wind up signing Carl Crawford for too much money. You go nuts and bid $51.1 million on a Japanese pitcher. You make bogus lowball offers to popular free agents, then leak stories to the press after they sign elsewhere. You fire a manager and do nothing else, and declare the team's problems solved with a new disciplinarian skipper.

Look at the Patriots. They're not afraid to make unpopular moves. They'll let Wes Welker sit out, they'll say goodbye to Richard Seymour, trade Randy Moss in the middle of the season, and give absolutely nothing to the media in a press conference.

And when they make these unpopular moves, they don't trash their former players. They don't wage PR wars. They don't try to present themselves as wanting to keep those players.

It's all about winning in Foxborough. Personnel decisions are made with winning as the only goal. Not the case at Fenway. Fenway includes selling and spinning in the equation, making decisions in an effort to build a winning ballclub AND market the brand. And that's a problem. That should be handled by marketing and promotions staff. Not baseball operations.

Could you imagine Bill Belichick or Cam Neely, or Danny Ainge trying to balance winning games/titles with building a brand? Why do Larry Lucchino and the Red Sox attempt this unprecedented and unsound balancing act?

As the Red Sox rebuild themselves, they need to do so with winning as the only goal. Sign players to win. Make trades to win. The goal of winning should be handled by the baseball side of the organization, and should be the only goal. And the goal of selling should be handled by a completely separate wing. There should be no overlap, no meeting point, no Larry Lucchino.

The Red Sox have pushed the reset button, but if they continue to play the same way it'll once again be "Game Over."

Red Sox Clean House: Trade Beckett, Gonzalez, Crawford, and Punto

The people spoke, and the Red Sox listened. They traded Josh Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Nick Punto for the Dodgers. The Sox also sent $12 million in cash, but will save $270 million in salary due to this deal. The Dodgers sent first baseman James Loney and four prospects to Boston.

This move, by itself, does not immediately help the Red Sox. It does, however, open up the payroll and roster to allow the Red Sox to improve.

Getting rid of Josh Beckett is a positive on and off the field. Beckett has been a lousy pitcher, and an utter shitbag off the field. Good riddance.

I don't think Adrian Gonzalez was traded because he sent a text to owners. I think he was traded because his contract was big, but he still has some value to a team like the Dodgers.

Gonzalez's production will be tough to replace, but lately he's reminded me of Phil Kessel. The numbers are great, but you watch him play and aren't that impressed. When David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez were at their peak in Boston, they got big hits in big situations in big games. Gonzalez's big hits are few and far between.

There aren't any top 1B available in free agency this off-season, but Gonzalez's meaningful production can be replaced from other positions. And don't forget, the Red Sox get more production from DH than most teams.

Carl Crawford looked good since returning from injury. But his contract was ludicrous. Even at his absolute best, he wasn't worth what he was getting paid.

After getting surgery, Crawford had potential to be a good, productive, solid player for the Sox. But I'd rather have the cash to go after someone who has more concrete potential to be more productive. Someone who gets on base, has some power. Someone more likely to perform here.

I'd also rather spend that money on pitching.

On paper, this is a crappy trade for the Sox. But paper is only good for drawing pictures and wiping your ass. The Sox got rid of a horrible pitcher, and three bloated contracts. They lost Nick Punto, too, but what does that matter?

The Sox now have the freedom to fundamentally reshape this team. They can keep Ortiz and Ellsbury (if they want to). They can hang on to Cody Ross. Build a rotation and a bullpen. They have more prospects in the stable to make a trade for a starting pitcher.

So the Sox aren't better right now, but they now have the capability to be better than they were.

Another Subpar Beckett Outing

Josh Beckett remains tied with Daniel Bard at 5 wins. Beckett is so bad that last night's 6 inning, 4 earned run start seemed like a gem, at least for him. But it wasn't. It was typical Josh Beckett.

Beckett is capable of making great pitches. And he makes lots of great pitches. He struck out 6 Yankees last night, and made Robinson Cano look like a fool twice. But he doesn't make great pitches enough. And too often, he makes very bad pitches. Those mistakes/misses undermine his entire outing.

The cut fastball to Curtis Granderson in the 1st, for instance, was higher and caught more of the plate than Beckett and Lavarnway had intended. Granderson hit an RBI double. Then the pitch he left up to Ichiro which resulted in a homerun. Beckett got away with a fastball down the middle to Eric Chavez with the bases loaded in the 5th. Chavez popped out to first. Beckett made lots of great pitches last night, but his performance was defined by his poor pitches.

Beckett's career has been like this. He's capable of brilliance. He just isn't consistent. It's like cheating on a diet. You get up at 5:00am, run a few miles, have a plain bagel for breakfast, chicken salad for lunch, stir-fried veggies for dinner, then at midnight you go to Wendy's and get a triple Baconator meal. One slip ruins the entire day of diet and exercise. That's how Beckett pitches.

I don't know why Beckett is inconsistent. I can (and will) speculate. He doesn't seem too worried about being the best he can be. He gets by on talent, and that's gotten him 2 rings and a $17M/year contract, so why not? He isn't interested in his teammates, unless they're his drinking buddies. He doesn't take care of himself. He's enjoying life as he is, so why try to improve?

Fuck Josh Beckett. He's a loser, on the field and off it.

This team ends a 10 game road-trip with a 4-6 record. They're 4 games under .500 and 8 games out of the Wild Card in the loss column. And Josh Beckett is the person most at fault for this.

The Sox start a 7 game homestand on Tuesday against the Angels. The OC Angels are one of the teams the Sox would have to leapfrog to claim a Wild Card spot. This is yet another opportunity for this team to help themselves. They tend to not take advantage of such opportunities.

Aaron Cook faces Ervin Santana, who has had a rough year, but has pitched well in August.

Photo Credit:
Jason Szenes/Getty Images

Beckett Makes Me Want to Drink Like My Name Were Josh Beckett

In my opinion, I think it's a better investment for the Red Sox to pay Josh Beckett to not pitch for them than it is for them to pay him to pitch. He just sucks. There's nothing redeemable about him as a pitcher or as a person. This off-season, the Red Sox should try to trade him for nothing, even pay most of his salary. And if there are no takers, just release him and eat the contract.

What is his positive contribution to this team? I can't see any.

With this team, it's gotten to the sad state that you just have to admit "Baltimore is better."

The Red Sox were 1 for 10 with runners in scoring position. Beckett allowed a pair of homeruns. Mike Aviles struck out 3 times and has become a useless part of the lineup. Alex "text message" Gonzalez was 0 for 3 with RISP.

This was a big series. I know Wei-Yin Chen vs. Josh Beckett is a bit of a mismatch in favor of Baltimore, but I'm disappointed the Sox couldn't pull it out last night.

They're now 7 games behind the Orioles in the loss column. And 7 games behind the A's. And 5 behind the Tigers, and 4 behind the Angels.

The good news is that the Red Sox' worst pitcher has already pitched in this series, so it can only get better from here. Aaron Cook faces Miguel Gonzalez. Gonzalez is coming off back-to-back starts that were very good, and the Red Sox don't have much history against him. That's usually bad for the Sox.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

David Ortiz Sums Up the Red Sox Attitude Problems

Talking about the progress of his Achilles injury, David Ortiz had this to say:

"If you go back and play sore, of course (it could tear) because it's not just healing, it's not ready. And I don't want to run that risk either. I'm a free agent after this year, and I don't want to have to go into surgery as a free agent. So it's, 'Let it heal and play when you're ready.'"

David Ortiz is more concerned with his free agency than with winning in 2012. Josh Beckett is counting his days off. Bobby Valentine is announcing beer bans that don't really exist. John Lackey is following this team around leaving a trail of Bud Light cans strewn behind him. Dustin Pedroia still acts Terry Francona is the manager.

Everyone on this team, except for some of the young guys, and some of the role players, is not likable. Some are downright despicable.

David Ortiz talking about his injury and how he doesn't want to hurt his 2013 free agency? I'm all for playing when you feel ready to play, but citing contract status as a reason to not play? Would he risk injury if the Sox extended his deal? If so, then he's just a selfish d-bag.

Winning simply is not the #1 goal for many people on this team. That's the problem. It's not bad chemistry, or lack of discipline, or poor character. Almost everyone on this team has individualistic goals, and very few on this team consider winning to be the top priority.

Beckett: The Worst of What Red Sox Do Worst

Whatever clubhouse problems Josh Beckett may or may not be a part of, the simple on the field facts are that he has undeniably and unequivocally sucked this season. Yesterday afternoon he gave the Sox 5 innings, 8 hits, 8 earned runs, 2 walks, 2 strikeouts, 3 homeruns. And that ERA of his is once again flirting with 5.00 (4.97 to be exact).

Among starting pitchers that have enough innings to qualify, he is 86th in ERA. Only 12 starters have worse ERAs.

How long does this guy continue to get the ball? How long until he has a roster spot? How many pitchers out there can give the Sox what Beckett gives them, only for less money, and with less drama?

This loss typifies the Sox season. One part of the team did very well (the offense), but their efforts were sabotaged by other parts of the team (Beckett and the bullpen).

Adrian Gonzalez hit 3 doubles, each time knocking in a run. Cody Ross hit a homerun and knocked in 2. Will Middlebrooks hit a 3 run homer. 9 runs should be enough to win.

But Beckett dug a huge hole for his teammates. And when they were finally clawing their way out of that hole, the bullpen dug it deeper. Clayton Mortensen didn't do his job. Then Alfredo Aceves allowed a sacrifice fly that gave the Rangers the lead. He nearly allowed a 2 run homer after that.

Aceves wasn't meant to be the closer on this team. But they let a pretty good one go. Then they signed one who has a history of injuries. And he got injured.

There are good pieces on this team. And there are bad ones. The bad pieces counter the good pieces and the result is a .500 team. It's like running a faucet on full hot and full cold. The result is a tepid stream of mediumness.

It's only August, but looking forward to the 2012-13 off-season I'd prefer that the Red Sox focus on removing the bad pieces that infest this team, as opposed to adding more good pieces. This team is sick. The top priority should be to get rid of the viruses, the bacteria, and all that ails this team. Then the good pieces can be healthy and thrive.

The Sox are in Cleveland for 4 games. The Indians aren't a good team, and the Sox need wins. This is an opportunity for them to win. Although we've seen them fail to take advantage of such opportunities.

Felix Doubront faces 8-11 Ubaldo Jimenez, who had a good June, but has struggled the rest of the 2012 season.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Red Sox Return to Reality

Jon Lester is 5-10. That's simply shocking. He's never lost 10 games in a season before. And he's managed to reach 15 wins every year since he became a full-time starter. He'll be hard pressed to reach that mark with only 51 games left on the schedule.

Lester wasn't bad. He was excellent the first time through the lineup. The Rangers eventually got to him. He was charged with 4 earned runs in 6.2 innings. But 1 of those runs was scored with Mark Melancon on the mound. He was good enough, but his teammates weren't.

Speaking of the bullpen, they've been very shabby lately. As a unit they started the season poorly, then settled into a groove of dependability, and now they're back to being a problem. Had Melancon done his job, and Junichi Tazawa done his job, this game could have been a 3-3 tie that went to extra innings.

Instead, the bullpen allowed the Rangers to build some insurance.

Meanwhile, the only scoring the Sox could manage came thanks to Will Middlebrooks and his pinch hit 3 run homer. I'm sure Bobby Valentine will take credit for that one.

Apart from that Ryan Dempster shut the Sox lineup down. Carl Crawford helped by getting picked off.

The Sox were mad at the umpiring, and maybe justifiably so. But the Sox take umpire-baiting to a new level. Jon Lester gets upset with about two calls per inning, and shows it with feminine snaps of the glove and passive aggressive behavior. And none of the Sox hitters are shy about lingering in the batter's box after striking out and expressing their opinion.

Maybe the umpires are sick of the Sox' whining. I know I am. Maybe the umps make unfavorable calls because the Red Sox irritate them.

I can't blame them.

Josh Beckett takes the mound for the Sox tonight. This is a chance for him to do what he's paid to do. He hasn't made a Quality Start since July 15th and the Sox could really use one.

Once again, Beckett is up against a good opposing pitcher. Matt Harrison is 13-6 with a 3.17 ERA. He's a lefty and Carl Crawford is the only active member of the Sox to have had much success against him.

The Sox will struggle to score off this guy, so Beckett needs to pitch as well as he's capable of pitching.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Who Does Josh Beckett Remind You Of?

I know I'm a few days late discussing Josh Beckett's recent back spasms. I'm sorry for that.

What I'm not at all sorry about is how happy I was that he was booed after taking himself out of a game Tuesday night. While I'm sure the injury is legitimate, I have little sympathy for someone with such a low threshold of pain, and absolutely no sympathy for an athlete that doesn't take care of himself.

I can't figure out who Beckett reminds me of more. J.D. Drew, or his boyhood hero Roger Clemens.

Drew had no tolerance for physical discomfort. And neither does Beckett. For Beckett to operate at 100%, it seems like everything needs to be perfect. His back, his blisters, his lats, the wind, the weather, the crowd noise, the pre-game meal, the golf game he played two days earlier. He can't pitch well if just one little thing is off. He's a diva.

The great athletes are able to summon greatness when not in peak physical or mental condition. Michael Jordan with the flu, Pedro Martinez in Game 5 of the '99 ALDS, even Brett Favre the day after his father died.

I'm not asking or expecting Beckett to throw a perfect game with a strained muscle in his back. But it would be nice if he were able to pitch well even when feeling uncomfortable or in pain. Or just try to pitch at all. He seems more willing to leave a baseball game early than cancel a golf game.

He'd rather sit out then push through. Which is very J.D. Drew of him.

At least Drew was in shape, though. Beckett isn't. And this is how he is like his idol, Mr. Roger Clemens. As Clemens' career in Boston progressed, he added some Texas Toast to his body. His waist grew, his ERA grew, his innings decreased. That's very similar to Beckett. Beckett is 32 now, the same age Clemens was in the middle of his plumping and slumping.

I wonder if Ben Cherington will say that Beckett is in the "twilight" of his career. Then Josh will wind up with the Blue Jays, miraculously get in shape, throw 496.2 innings in 2 years, and win a pair of Cy Youngs.

In some ways, Beckett is worse than Clemens. The Red Sox Front Office battled Roger Clemens. Now, the Front Office enables Beckett. This lack of control over Beckett makes him a more dangerous monster.

Beckett is the guy more worried about finding the identity of last year's "snitch" than making the playoffs.

Beckett is the guy who golfed while injured, then instead of explaining that he was approved to do so, quoted how many days off he had and that it was nobody's business how he spent them.

Beckett is the guy leading Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz astray.

And the Front Office refuses to rein him in. They fired Francona and kept Beckett. But Valentine hasn't been a disciplinarian at all and doesn't seem to have support from the Front Office to be one. Most recently, the Sox allegedly had a chance to get rid of Beckett and send him back to Texas. They chose to keep him.

The Red Sox actually seem afraid to drop Beckett. Getting rid of him would be the same as waving a white flag for the 2012 season. That's true, but it would also give the green flag for the Sox to win in 2013 and beyond. Cherington didn't have the power to pull the trigger. Lucchino doesn't have the stones to sacrifice this mediocre season and look to win in 2013. And John Henry is probably looking to buy an Aussie Rules Football team.

Beckett is a perfect storm of jackassery. He doesn't stay in shape, he's a detriment to team morale, he's a bad influence on younger players, and he's soft (literally and figuratively).

If Roger Clemens, J.D. Drew, and a used douchebag could have a child, they would name it Josh Beckett.

Rain and Red Sox Beat Tigers

The Red Sox should thank the Rain gods this morning. With Josh Beckett leaving early, the Sox' bullpen was going to have to work extra hard to get to the 9th inning. Franklin Morales was on the verge of breaking down when the game was halted, and eventually called, giving the Sox a 4-1 victory.

The Sox deserved the win. They scored 4 runs off Verlander in 5 innings, and that's worthy of a 'W' in and of itself. The rain simply gave the Sox an assist, made it easier to complete the victory.

Clay Mortensen was excellent. Just another role player in a long line of role players to pick up the team when a star disappoints them. Mortensen literally did Josh Beckett's job last night. He went 3 scoreless innings, allowed 1 hit and walked 3.

This was a good win for the Sox to have. They got some bad luck with Beckett's "injury," but Mortensen compensated for that setback. They took advantage of Verlander, and they took advantage of the weather.

Baseball is a game of opportunities, and the Sox capitalized on their opportunities last night.

The Sox go for the sweep tonight. Aaron Cook faces Rick Porcello. Cook needs a good start after being smashed by the Yankees for 6 runs. Porcello is strictly mediocre and the Sox should hit him. Ellsbury is 5 for 5 against him with a homer.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

What Should the Red Sox Do at the Deadline?

Should the Red Sox be buyers or sellers? The correct answer is "no." The Sox should neither buy or sell, unless presented with extremely juicy deals.

If the Red Sox were a blackjack hand, they'd be a hard 16. The trickiest hand to play. Do you hit and likely bust? Do you stay and likely get beaten by the dealer? No matter what you do, it probably won't work out. Your best hope is the dealer busts.

The Sox are only 4 games out of a Wild Card spot, but they have 4 teams to leapfrog over. They're 10th out of 14 teams in the American League. They're not quite out of it, and not quite into it.

It's conceivable that if Beckett and Lester pitch up to their capabilities, the Red Sox could go on a serious run. They could claim a Wild Card spot, win the play-in, and even win a playoff series.

But there is no move (apart from acquiring Felix Hernandez), that could spark this run. Trade deadline moves typically add missing or complimentary parts to help an already well-run machine function at peak efficiency.

The Sox are more than just a tune-up or a spare part away from playing well. They already have an abundance of bit players. What's kept them from winning has been their best two pitchers playing like their two worst pitchers.

And if the Sox do go on a run, it will be because those pitchers perform at their top level. Not because they acquire some right-handed bat at the deadline, or a lefty set-up guy.

The Sox shouldn't sell because they're not out of it. They have a chance.

They shouldn't buy either. They theoretically possess the talent to. If they do win, it will be because of the players already on the roster.

Red Sox Suck Against Blue Jays

Should we be surprised by this team's disappointments anymore? After taking 3 of 4 from a division leader, they get swept by a team which had been in last place. The Red Sox are 15-15 in their last 30 games. A remarkably uniform achievement of inconsistency.

I'm seriously considering the idea that the Red Sox should simply trade Josh Beckett and Jon Lester. The Red Sox are 1-6 the last 7 times Beckett took the mound. They haven't won with Lester starting since June.

With these guys on the mound, the Sox are 13-23 (.361). The Sox are 35-25 (.583) when someone else starts. These are supposedly the best two pitchers on the team, but the team is .222 winning percentage points better when Beckett and Lester are spectators.

Beckett has always been inconsistent and unreliable. This season's struggles aren't much different from his poor 2010 performance, his inconsistency in 2008, or his shitty September last year.

Lester's struggling is more of a mystery. This is a guy whose career has been consistent as a clock. For 4 years he won between 15-19 games, had an ERA between 3.20 and 3.50, and a WHIP between 1.23 and 1.27.

Now his ERA is 2 runs higher than normal, his WHIP is slightly higher, and he's giving up much more extra-base hits.

One theory I have is psychological. I think he wanted to be more than the steady #2 pitcher he'd been for 4 straight seasons. I think he wanted to be an Ace. He made pre-season remarks complaining that he wasn't perceived as elite. I think he's trying too hard and not just letting himself be Jon Lester on the mound.

Or maybe the explanation is simple and he just sucks.

I doubt the Red Sox will trade either of these guys. Let alone both of them. I do know that the .583 winning percentage they have when others are starting would be good enough to lead the Wild Card race. And if the Sox were merely .500 in Beckett and Lester's starts, they'd be 53-43, would be leading the Wild Card, and  be only 4.5 games behind the Yankees.

As it is, the Sox are in last place in the division, and 4 teams stand between them and the Wild Card spots.

The Sox start a 6 game road trip against the two best teams in baseball. Tonight Felix Doubront opposes Scott Feldman of the Rangers. Feldman is a converted reliever with a 5.89 ERA. The Sox should be able to do something against him.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Red Sox Take Two of Three in Tampa Bay

This was an important series win for the Sox. They needed to start the second half right. They needed to beat teams like the Rays who are competing for those Wild Card spots. To finish above the Rays in the standings, they need to beat them. It's very simple, but very true.

I'm not overwhelmed by the Sox performance this past weekend, though. Saturday was a winnable game that was lost. And the Sox gave Tampa Bay plenty of opportunities to turn the other games around.

Honestly, are you impressed with what Josh Beckett and Alfredo Aceves did yesterday afternoon? Beckett was a slow-motion disaster in the 1st inning, then Aceves nearly blew a 4 run lead in the 9th.

The Sox are only 1.5 games out of the 2nd Wild Card spot. But there are 4 teams between them and Baltimore. In this race, the name of the game is separation. What will separate the Red Sox from these teams in the final standings?

Winning a series like this is important because it helps give them separation from Tampa Bay. A sweep, obviously, would have given them even more separation. Had they swept, they'd be 0.5 games out, ahead of Tampa Bay, and tied with Oakland and Detroit. Only the two Wild Card teams (the Angels and Orioles) would be ahead of them.

If Josh Beckett can pitch as well as he did from the 2nd inning on, that can give the Sox the necessary separation to break away from the pack. Jacoby Ellsbury went 3 for 5 yesterday, he could prove to be the separation from the other teams. If Adrian Gonzalez can hit in the clutch, if Will Middlebrooks can get hot again, if Clay Buchholz can stay healthy and effective, if Mike Aviles can hit the occasional homerun (as he did yesterday), these could all be the separating factors that allow the Red Sox to get one of the Wild Card spots.

One thing they must also do is be able to score against good pitching and hold their own against good teams. Speaking of which, the White Sox come to town for 4 games. I'll be content with a 2-2 split in this series.

Tonight Aaron Cook faces Dylan Axelrod, who has been a part-time starter for the White Sox. But none of the Red Sox have much experience against him, and that's frequently not a good sign.

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Broken Red Sox Welcome All-Star Break

The Red Sox are 3-8 in their last 11 games. They were 7-2 in their previous 9. That's 10-10. They're a .500 team capable of brilliance one week, then shameful performances the next. Every part of the team is talented but unreliable. It balances out over a long run. And the result is a 43-43 team.

Actually, they're a 32-23 team when their best pitchers are on the mound, and an 11-20 team when they're two worst starters pitch. Those two worst starters are Josh Beckett and Jon Lester. The Sox are a .582 team when anyone else starts. They're a .355 team when either of these guys pitches.

The Sox haven't won a Josh Beckett start since May 26th.

This isn't an aberration caused by bad luck or poor run support. These two pitchers are simply not pitching well. They're pitching poorly, and not just for two guys who were expected to pitch well. Beckett's ERA is 4.43. Lester's is 4.49. The ERA for the entire American League is 4.04. So both of these guys have ERAs that are about 0.40 higher than the League average. That's bad.

This weekend, Beckett and Lester failed. I heard some analysts applauding Beckett for settling down and going 5 innings on Friday, but he lost the game in the 1st inning. And then last night, Lester couldn't even go 5 innings. These two pitchers don't put the team in position to win very often.

There's no denying their talent, but there's also no denying their failure.

And that's the story of the Red Sox as a whole. You can point to injuries, and count down the days until Jacoby Ellsbury returns. But the two best pitchers on the team have ERAs that are about 10% higher than the AL average. How are you supposed to win when your most talented players are playing worse than the League's average talent?

Not to mention you have a middle-reliever who is obsessed with Mark Teixeira. Your best hitter is concerned about his contract. And your bullpen is a patched together mess that's one loose thread away from disintegrating.

During the All-Star Break, the Red Sox will be playing the most consistent baseball they've played all season long.

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Runless in Seattle

The Mariners suck. The Red Sox split a 4 game series with a team that sucks. By itself, that's not a big deal. But considering the inconsistency the Sox have displayed this season, it's another frustrating weekend. The Sox don't take advantage of the opportunities they have.

They got good pitching performances all weekend. Then again, the Mariners really do suck. I'm surprised they're not no-hit once a week.

Felix Doubront Doubront labored yesterday, but the bullpen was able give the Sox a chance. On Saturday, Beckett went 6 innings and allowed 2 runs in his return from "injury." On Friday, Aaron Cook only needed 81 pitches to go 9 innings. That's 9 pitches an inning for those of you who forgot your multiplication tables. Not a single pitch he threw was swung on and missed. That's ludicrous.

But the Red Sox didn't generate much offense themselves. 9 runs in 4 games. 9 runs in 39 innings. The Red Sox seemingly forgot how to get hits with runners in scoring position. An inconsistency which has plagued them all year. And last September.

On the bright side, the Sox are half a game out of the Wild Card. And the Orioles are falling from the sky.

But to be a true contender, they have to take advantage of their opportunities. They had a 4 game series against one of the worst teams in the American League and they split 2-2. It's not a disaster, but it's hardly worth celebrating.

They travel to Oakland tonight to face the 38-42 Athletics. Matsuzaka faces Jarrod Parker. The 23 year old Parker has pitched pretty well. He's 4-3 with a 2.57 ERA. In June, he was 3-1 with a 2.18 ERA. I have a bad feeling that the Sox bats won't wake up until Tuesday.

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A Great Chance for the Sox to Win

There are 96 games left on the schedule. And if the Red Sox want to play more than 96 games, they need to win now.

Yes I know they they're enduring more than their share of injuries. They're missing an MVP candidate in the outfield, a starting pitcher who is capable of brilliance, a closer, more outfielders than there are outfield spots, and so on.

There's also been reports of strife and division within the clubhouse. There are coaches who weren't appointed by the manager, a manager who wasn't appointed by the GM, owners who use the media to manipulate popular opinion. There are trade rumors, there is fracturing between pitchers and hitters, between Francona supporters and those loyal to Bobby V.

And there are excuses. Umpires, the wind, the schedule.

The excuses and explanations must stop. This is a time for them to stop whining and start winning.

The Red Sox are starting a 16 game stretch against some of the weakest opposition in the Majors. Three against Miami (33-33 and 4th in the NL East), three against Atlanta (35-32, 3rd place), three against Toronto (34-32, 4th in AL East), four against Seattle (29-39, 4th in AL West), and three against Oakland (31-36, 3rd place).

They can and should win most of these games.

With Beckett out of the rotation, Lester and Buchholz need to pitch well every start. Buchholz has been doing that lately. Lester's been good but he needs to be great. The Sox need these two guys to be at their best.

Matsuzaka needs to continue what he did after the 2nd inning on Friday. And Doubront needs to be as solid as he's been.

Offensively, the stars of the lineup need to play like stars. I keep getting emails from the Red Sox urging their fans to vote for Pedroia to be in the All-Star Game. He's hitting .160 in June. The whole "relax" attitude he has shown is cute and funny, but he needs to hit. Now.

Youkilis also needs to hit. He's on a .128 clip this month.

And Adrian Gonzalez is hitting .232 in June. He only has 5 extra-base hits.

The stars on this team aren't playing like stars. The second-tier talent has carried them. And without those contributions from the second-tier talent, the Sox would be well below .500.

In the next 16 games, the Sox have an opportunity to do some damage. The injuries hurt, but what's killing them is their best players not playing like their best players.

After this stretch, the schedule gets tough. They face the Yankees, Rays, and White Sox. If they don't take advantage of the lesser opponents they have now, they might be out of the playoff race this time next month.

Sox Forget to Bring Their Talent to South Beach

The best news out of this game is that Mark Melancon's scoreless 8th inning brought his ERA down to 33.00. Beckett labored in the 1st, and the offense did nothing. This was a team loss. Apart from Scott Podsednik, everyone in a Sox uniform can share responsibility for this defeat. Which is the 7th loss in 8 games for the streaky Sox.

The Sox managed 5 hits. Podsednik had 3 of them. Pedroia had a double and Ryan Sweeney hit a single. And of course, none of these hits came with runners in scoring position. That's exactly what the opposition would be expecting.

The Sox offense has been streaky this season because it's been supported by secondary players. Guys like Mike Aviles, Cody Ross, and Daniel Nava have taken up the slack as Youkilis and Gonzalez have struggled, and Ellsbury has been injured. But now reality is starting to sink in. Aviles is mired in a 2 for 17 slump (.118). He's hitting .228 in June. He was very productive in April with 5 homers and 17 RBI. He was solid in May with 15 RBI. But in June he's slowed to a crawl.

It's hard to believe that the Sox will continue to perform this poorly on offense. But I'm sure by the time they heat up, the starting pitchers will start to struggle. Then Aceves will blow a few saves. There might be a few overlapping games when starters, relievers, and hitters are all clicking. But for the most part, this team is seemingly built in layers of mediocrity to prevent any lengthy stretch of consistent play.

The 1st inning summed up the Sox' shortcomings very nicely. They had 2 on with 0 outs, and couldn't take advantage of the opportunity. Then in the bottom of the inning, the Marlins scored a run thanks to a leadoff triple. Then they did some damage with 2 outs. They took full advantage of Gonzalez's poor fielding and inexperienced throwing in right-field. They wound up scoring 3 runs in the inning. And that was more than enough.

As a sidenote, how long until John Henry and Larry Lucchino hire some dancers to shake their stuff on the Green Monster? Or maybe install an aquarium between the bullpens at Fenway? How about a petting zoo on Yawkey Way?

Buchholz faces Mark Buehrle tonight. Buehrle has struggled lately, and some of the Sox have hit well off him in the past (Ortiz has a .345 average against him, Pedroia's is .375, Podsednik's is .364), so maybe they can score a few runs.

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Sox Put Up More Zeroes Against O's

You can't ask for much more from Josh Beckett. The starting pitching as a whole has been good lately. But the inconsistent Sox offense has once again cooled off. The Orioles have won their 7th straight game in Fenway Park, and that's simply shameful.

The reason the Sox are so streaky as a team is because they're streaky as units and as individuals. Incisive analysis, I know. When one aspect of this team struggles, though, it struggles big time. When the starters stink, they barely make the 5th inning. When the offense isn't hitting, they struggle to get 2 runs across the plate.

Look at a guy like Beckett. Brilliant one week, mediocre the next, crappy the next. And this lineup has been carried by role-player types, like Aviles, Ross, and Saltalamacchia. They can't go 2 for 4 every night. Not having Ellsbury hurts. Gonzalez just hurts.

The Sox offense is very good at piling on runs when a pitcher is struggling, and getting big innings. But when a pitcher is having a good night, the Sox will struggle just to get on base. And bunting isn't the answer. Neither are stolen bases. The Sox can't afford to use outs to get runners in scoring position. Then they have fewer outs/chances to knock those runners in. And they have a much smaller chance at scoring multiple runs in an inning.

On the bright side, Beckett pitched well. He went 8 and only allowed 2 runs off 5 hits. He didn't walk anyone. He struck out 5. Since being shelled on May 10th, he's gone 7+ in five straight starts. His record is 2-2 in those starts, but his ERA is 2.21. You can't ask for more from him, only that he keeps up the good work. Which has been an issue for him over the course of his career.

Darnell McDonald returned to the lineup, and was 1 for 2 with a double and a sacrifice bunt. I don't like small ball tactics. Runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs and the Sox give the O's an out. Byrd struck out after that, and Aviles popped out.

It was such a Bobby Valentine thing to do. And I won't say it cost the Sox the game, because it didn't. Their inability to get any hits cost them the game. But Valentine can't help but do something to influence the game. He's compelled to attempt to exert control over it. He can't just sit back and let it happen. Giving free outs to an opponent isn't how to break out of a slump (which is when you're already giving opponents too many easy outs). It only makes scoring harder.

The Sox are back at .500, and back in 5th place. It was nice to be over .500 for 9 days.

They need another good start from Buchholz tonight. He faces Brian Matusz. Matusz struggled in April. But in his last five starts he's 4-1 with a 2.87 ERA. One of those wins came against the Sox.

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