Red Sox Preview: Infield/DH

The bulk of the Sox' offensive production will have to come from the infield. That shouldn't be too much of a problem.

Adrian Gonzalez had a satisfying 2012. However, he struggled against the two most important Red Sox opponents: the Yankees and Rays. He hit .183 against New York and .131 against Tampa Bay. For the Sox to compete in the AL East this year, they need one of their top hitters to perform in big games against these key opponents.

Expect another season with around 30 homers, 110+ RBI, and an OPS well above .900. The question is, when (and against whom) will he hit those homers and knock in those runs?

Dustin Pedroia had another good season last year. And unlike most of his teammates, he didn't flounder in September. It'll be interesting to see how he adjusts to Bobby Valentine. Pedroia was probably Francona's biggest ally in the Sox clubhouse.

But Pedroia doesn't seem like the type who'll let a manager affect his effort levels. That's why he's the most likable player on the team.

The Sox traded the .299 hitting Marco Scutaro because...

Um...

Well all Scutaro did was hit well, play solid defense, play through injury, and was willing to accept whatever role the Sox wanted him to fill. And that's just not the type of player we want in Boston. Especially when the Sox can trim $6 million off their payroll by trading him to Colorado for a minor league pitcher.

And the Sox used that freed up money to invest in...

Um...

Well anyway, Liverpool are in 8th place in England.

Mike Aviles will be the shortstop in Boston. For now. He'll be paid $1.2 million. He hit .317 in 101 at-bats for the Sox last year. He's a capable hitter. He doesn't strike out much and he can steal the occasional base. He's not as good offensively as Scutaro. And defensively, he's something of a liability.

After finishing 3rd last year, the Sox downgraded at short-stop, just like they downgraded at closer. The Sox have made no significant upgrades at all this offseason. Where's the outrage?

Speaking of rage...

Kevin Youkilis will be at third base. It'll be interesting to see how his personality interacts with Bobby Valentine's. I doubt it will negatively impact Youkilis' production. Although he hasn't been able to recapture his impressive 2008 and 2009 numbers. This is the year the Sox need him the most. How well Youkilis does will have a considerable impact on the lineup. He can either extend the quality in the middle of the order, or be the beginning of the bottom.

David Ortiz is overpaid. I wouldn't mind if the Sox weren't on a strict budget this offseason. $14,575,000 is a hefty sum for a guy who takes 4 or 5 at-bats a night. He did well last year, except he wasn't hitting for much power in September. Which is when the Sox needed a power hitter to knock a few out of the park. He had 1 homer in that final month. Along with 5 doubles.

Although maybe an official scorer screwed him out of a double or two. Actually that probably didn't happen because Ortiz would have loudly bitched about it.

He's 36 years old, so it's time to expect to see his numbers turn downhill. What we don't know is how steep that slope will be. He'll always be a patient hitter, so his OBP probably won't suffer much. Last year he had 70 extra-base hits and I'd say that's a good target for 2012.

He's 22 homeruns away from 400, and I think he'll get there this year, but just barely.

One thing I like about the Sox lineup is that the players are versatile. Ellsbury and Pedroia can be at the top, but can also fill slots in the middle. Gonzalez, Youkilis, and Ortiz can be shifted around that middle depending on match ups and who's hot or cold.

But if one or two key hitters slump at the same time, the entire lineup gets cold. There's not enough quality at the bottom of the order to make pitchers work hard every inning. I think you'll see similar overall numbers to last season, with close to 900 runs scored. But there will be floods and droughts. They'll put up 14 one night then struggle to score 2 the next.

Overall, the Sox are once again loaded with more questions than answers. The rotation is top-heavy at best, the bullpen is one injury away from disaster, and the offense has multiple holes. I expect 85 to 90 wins, and maybe that 2nd Wild Card berth.

I do not expect an extensive playoff run.

Sox Win a Tense One

That was tense. The Sox' bats kept pulling away, but the Orioles kept coming. Nothing was easy. Just ask Papelbon after he needed 28 pitches for one inning (he needed 29 on Sunday).

The bats needed to come alive, as Bedard just wasn't good enough. Again. Thankfully, the Sox have Alfredo Aceves, who is the biggest unsung hero of the team. 3.2 innings from him (getting 1 more out than Bedard could), as he deservedly got win #10. He's pitched 113 innings this year in 54 appearances (only 4 of those were starts). Without him, the Sox are eliminated from contention over a week ago.

Daniel Bard sucks. I couldn't believe Francona didn't have Papelbon ready to come in to get the last out of the 8th. There's no way in hell that this guy is ready to be a closer.

Before last night, some people probably didn't know who Ryan Lavarnway was. After last night, I don't think anyone doesn't know who he is. He started off with a pickoff, then hits a 3 run homer, then a solo shot as an encore. He's 24, he hit .467 his junior year at Yale. He was hitting .295 in Pawtucket this year. Maybe he's a spark that this team desperately needs.

Ellsbury furthered his MVP bid with a 2 run homer in the 2nd. But another guy who has been contributing down the stretch is Scutaro. His 2 out double extended the inning that Ellsbury hit his homer in. Later, Scutaro hit a 2 run shot of his own. He's hitting .368 in September.

Now we wait for Game #162. The Rays beat the Yankees, thanks in part to a bases loaded triple play. So we wait. Jon Lester will take the mound for the Sox. He's 14-0 in his career against Baltimore. Though it's only his second career start on 3 days rest. That other start didn't go well (4 runs in 5 innings back in April of '08), but he only threw 55 pitches on Saturday so maybe he'll be better rested.

The O's will counter with Alfredo Simon who is 4-9 with a 4.85 ERA. He's a righty journeyman and not very good. There's no reason for the Sox to not score runs off him. He allowed 3 in 4.2 innings against the Sox earlier this year.

And if necessary, the AL Wild Card playoff game would be Thursday at 4:07, and would be in St. Petersburg.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

2011 RED SOX PREVIEW: HITTING

The Red Sox scored the 2nd most runs in baseball last year. They were 2nd in homeruns, 3rd in OBP, 2nd in slugging, 1st in OPS. In other words, they were pretty good at the plate. And they should be even better in 2011.

Adding Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez were the big stories of the off-season. Not to mention the returns of Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia, who only played in 102 and 75 games last year, respectively. These newcomers and returning producers should more than offset the loss of Beltre and Victor Martinez.

The middle of the lineup will be fierce. Gonzalez, liberated from San Diego's pitcher friendly park, should hit over .300, with an OBP close to .400, slug near .600, and approach 40 homers. Youkilis should hit nearly 30 homers, with an OBP well over .400, and slug around .570.

Putting Crawford and Pedroia ahead of them will result in abundant runs. Gonzalez could knock in 120, and Youkilis should easily surpass 100 RBI.

JD Drew's contract is up, so I think he'll actually play more than 140 games and produce. Then there's Ortiz, whose 32 homers and 102 RBIs were impressive in 2010. But he really struggled against lefties. Drew also can't hit southpaws. So against righties, the Sox will have an excellent 5-6 to keep the pressure on. Against lefties, you'll see plenty of innings ended by Drew and Ortiz.

The bottom of the lineup will be solid enough. I like Ellsbury as a 7th or 9th hitter, either keeping the middle of the orders' rallies going, or helping Crawford and Pedroia start a new one. He should hit .300, with a .350 OBP that keeps him from being a good leadoff option. Minimal power, but plenty of speed.

Scutaro had a decent year last season. But we've all sort of forgotten. So did Lowrie. Having both of them as options is a nice luxury. Both play good defense, and neither are easy outs. That's all you really want or need from the 8th spot in your lineup.

Speaking of easy outs, we come to Varitek/Saltalamacchia. They'll ground into so many double plays. That is, if they even make contact with the ball.

Anyway you stack it, this lineup is pretty sick. Mike Cameron can fill in for Drew against lefties. And the speed of Crawford and Ellsbury can help keep the whole batting order from slumping. And even if a tough lefty is on the mound, guys like Youkilis (.404 against LHP last year), can still give them problems.

The Sox scored 818 runs last year, or 5.05 per game. If they stay healthy, they'll score over 900.

You have an amazing offense, and suspect pitching. I'm reminded of the Cleveland Indians from 1995 to 1999. They'll be fun to watch. They'll win 100 regular season games. And they'll lose the World Series to a team with superior pitching. I'm thinking the Phillies. 1946 all over again.