Euro 2012 Preview*

It's time for the European Championship of soccer. I think I like this tournament a little bit more than the World Cup. Most of the best teams in the world are in it, and you don't have to bother with separating the wheat from the chaff. There are also some really interesting and intense rivalries that this tournament is more likely to see than the World Cup. England/Germany, Germany/Netherlands, Spain/Portugal, France/Italy, et cetera.

This year, the tournament is being hosted by Poland and the Ukraine. There are four teams in four groups. They'll play a round-robin round, with 3 points awarded for a win, 1 for a draw. The top two teams advance to the elimination stages. Here are the groups:

Group A:
Czech Republic
Greece
Poland
Russia

This is the Eastern bloc group. Greece and Russia are the highest ranked teams, according to FIFA. But the Czech Republic side isn't bad. And Poland, being a host country, is sure to be energized and also receive benefits from a few calls. I think Greece's political problems might wind up distracting their team. And Poland will take advantage. Russia wins the group with Poland squeaking through in second place.

Group B:
Denmark
Germany
Netherlands
Portugal

This is the "Group of Death" for the tournament. Germany is ranked 3rd in the world, the Netherlands are ranked 4th, Denmark is 9th, Portugal is 10th. That's in the world, not just Europe. I can't not pick the Germans to win this group. They're very talented this year, and they always seem to play above their talent-level anyway. And the Dutch have so many guys that can make plays and score, it's hard to pick against them. So Germany wins this group, the Dutch come in second.

Group C:
Spain
Italy
Ireland
Croatia

Ireland is a darkhorse to advance from this group. If Spain and Italy draw each other, then one of them draws with Ireland, and maybe Croatia upsets Italy (who tend to occasionally show up to summer tournaments in lackluster form), Ireland could advance. It's possible, but unlikely. What's more likely is that the #1 team in the world (Spain) dominates this group. And Italy dominates Ireland and Croatia to finish 2nd.

Group D:
Ukraine
Sweden
France
England

This is a tough group. There's a host country, then England (#6 team in the world), France (#14), and Sweden (#17). France and England both have a history of disappointing in big tournaments. So when two chokers face each other, what happens? A draw. I don't know if the Ukraine is good enough to capitalize on some friendly officiating, but Sweden could sneak into the elimination round from this group. I think England wins the group, Sweden finishes 2nd.

Notice how only two of those girls are showing their teeth? That's England for you.

If my predictions come true, then here would be the quarterfinals:

Russia vs. Netherlands
The Dutch would roll in this one. That's a feeble joke about rolling joints.

Spain vs. Sweden
This is as big of a mismatch in soccer as it is in hockey. Spain is too good to be stopped by the Swedes.

Germany vs. Poland
The best Polish born player in the world is a German citizen named Miroslav Klose. Germany wins.

England vs. Italy
England chokes on ravioli, Italy advances.

Then the semifinals:
Spain vs. Netherlands
The Dutch upset the Spanish with some quick strike goals.

Germany vs. Italy
The Germans outwork the Italians and win in extra-time or a penalty shootout.

Then the finals:
Germany vs. Netherlands
My heart is with Germany, but I have a feeling that the Netherlands will win it all.

The tournament starts today on ESPN. I highly recommend checking it out if you get a chance. This is world class soccer, something we don't get to see much of in the US.

Buchholz Shuts Out Orioles

The Sox, having lost 3 straight, needed a good start from Buchholz and some production from their offense. They got both. Buchholz went the distance, allowing 4 hits, only walking 1, striking out 6, and shutting out the Orioles.

Over his last three starts, Buchholz has pitched 24 innings and allowed 4 runs (1.50 ERA). He's striking batters out, he's getting them to ground out (he induced 3 double play balls last night), he's finally pitching as well as his 6-2 record suggests he can pitch. He's no longer a worry in the rotation.

Brian Matusz struggled to throw strikes, and the Sox took advantage. They drew 5 walks off him. And were up 4-0 by the time he was pulled in the 3rd. If anything, they could have scored more runs off him. But I'll take the 7 runs and the win.

Nava and Gonzalez each knocked in 2 runs. Pedroia and Youkilis each had an RBI.

This was the first time the Sox beat the Orioles in Fenway Park since September 19, 2011. Brian Matusz got the loss that night as well. I'm glad that shameful streak is over.

The good news is that the Sox didn't fall below .500. And the great news is that Buchholz is pitching extremely well. Right now, I'd say that Buchholz is the best pitcher in the rotation, with Beckett a close second. Doubront would be a solid third. If Lester could get going, then the Sox could start to scare opponents. Beckett, Buchholz, and Lester all at their best are quite formidable. Add Doubront's solidity, then Daisuke's potential to be a quality 4/5 guy, and the sky is the limit.

The Sox bats will be challenged this weekend as the 1st place Washington Nationals come to Fenway. Doubront faces 6-1 Stephen Strasburg tonight.. Strasburg has a 2.35 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. Although he has had a shaky May.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Celtics Will Have to Take Their Talent to South Beach

LeBron James is smart. He realized that the best way to avoid choking in the 4th quarter was to shoot the lights out in the first three. He hit 11 of his first 12 field goal attempts, finished 19 of 26 (73.1%), scored 30 points in the first half, and 45 points overall.

And he wasn't hitting easy shots. He was contested, fading away, and he still managed to sink it. Give him credit for having a great game.

Most of the Celtics, on the other hand, did not have a great game. Pierce was 4 for 18 from the field, and only managed 9 points. Rondo led the team with 21 points, but only had 10 assists. Which is an indicator that his teammates were struggling to sink shots. Garnett finished with 12 points. He shot 6 for 14, and never got to the free-throw line. Bass was the only Celtic who truly had a good game. He scored 12 with 7 rebounds.

Ray Allen hit the only three-pointer for the C's, who were 1 for 14 in that department. The Heat, meanwhile, were 7 for 16 with their three-pointers.

The Celtics defense was sluggish and predictable. But at some point you just have to tip your cap to LeBron for making the shots he made.

Offensively, the C's reminded me of the Bruins' power play. One or two guys moving, everyone else stationary. At first, the Celtics took advantage of Miami in transition. Then they slowed down. Then they slowed down, but took mediocre shots with 18 seconds left on the shot-clock. The Celtics never got into a rhythm offensively, and never really seemed to try to get into one.

The Celtics love to do this. They win 3 games in a series, then they take their foot off the gas. There were spurts of energy in this game. Rondo doing pushups was a great moment. But energy is only good if it's maintained throughout the course of a game. If it's sporadic, then it's essentially useless.

There wasn't much that the Celtics could do to silence LeBron, but they could have at least answered on the offensive end. Too many possessions ended with weird turnovers and missed shots.

The Celtics simply didn't play very well last night. Pierce and Garnett had off nights. Rondo was good, but he can't do it on his own. And without KG and Pierce, this team can't hope to win playoff games.

Hopefully they all wake up in Game 7. To me, they had a golden opportunity last night, and they blew it. Now they have to go down to Miami, deal with officials who are swayed by the crowd, and beat the Heat on their own floor. Again. At least they've shown that they can do it.

Game 7 Saturday night.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Patriots Cut Ochocinco

ESPN's Adam Schefter is reporting that the Patriots have released Chad Ochocinco. They did so after spending the day looking to trade the wide receiver, but being unable to make a deal. Ochocinco left the Stadium before OTAs today, but that was claimed to be due to an eye doctor's appointment.

This is not surprising at all. Ochocinco was retained last year despite his playbook comprehension problems because the WR depth chart was so shallow. Now with Wes Welker returning, Jabar Gafney, Brandon Lloyd, and Donte Stallworth arriving, not to mention Deion Branch, and Julian Edelman sticking around, there just wasn't enough reason to not cut Ochocinco.

He already took a paycut. And if he hadn't, he would have been cut long ago. There have been stories out of the Patriots' OTAs that he needed to be helped by Branch to run the right route. So it doesn't seem like he's getting it.

Quite simply, with the additions of all these WRs, it became very easy to cut him loose.

I'm sure he'll get picked up by another team. He's a talented player. He just didn't get the playbook here.

But before he can get to that next team, he'll have to negotiate Route 1. And we all saw how much he struggled with routes here in New England.

Good-bye, and good luck, Chad. Thank you for trying.

Mayor Menino, a.k.a. Mayor Meme-ino

Say what you want about Mumbles Menino, we could do a lot worse in Boston. Washington, DC once had a crackhead for a Mayor. And New York's Michael Bloomberg is a dictator that's trying to ban large soda, and everything else he doesn't enjoy. All we have to deal with in Boston is Menino. A funny sounding guy who mispronounces things. If he ever tried to ban soda, people wouldn't understand him anyway.

Maybe Menino got Rajon Rondo confused with John Havlicek, whose nickname was Hondo.

Menino has lived in Boston all his life. He was 15 when the Celtics won their first title, and he grew up when the Celtics reigned over the NBA. Havlicek was drafted by the C's when Menino was 20. He saw them win 11 titles before he was 30 years old. And he saw Havlicek win 8 titles. And a famous Havlicek play-by-play account from Celtics history was something Menino amazingly got 100% right in this appearance:

So I think Menino was thinking about Havlicek, who was probably one of his favorite players as a young man. Or maybe he was equating Rondo to John Wayne, whose character in the movie Hondo Havlicek was nicknamed after. Notice at the start of this trailer for Hondo, it mentions the Heat. Weird coincidence.

Or maybe Menino had recently watched the Married With Children Episode when Al gets trapped inside a grocery store and can't watch a TV broadcast of Hondo.

Whatever the case, this wasn't one of Mayor Menino's normal malapropisms. I think he's trying to send a message. I just can't figure out what it is.

Daisuke Starting Saturday in Boston, Bard Starting Friday in Pawtucket

Daisuke Matsuzaka will be back in Boston just about a year after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He last pitched for the Red Sox in May of 2011. He's made six rehab starts, totaling 37 innings. He had a 3.65 ERA, 31 hits, 9 walks, and 30 strikeouts. He also had high pitch counts. His final rehab outing lasted 2 innings (it had been scheduled for 3) on Tuesday. He threw 40 pitches.

On Saturday, he'll face 7-2 Gio Gonzalez and the Washington Nationals. Even though the Nats are in 1st place, their offense isn't very good. 26th in runs scored. And thankfully for Daisuke, 22nd in OBP, and 14th in walks.

With most pitchers, some things to watch in their first start back are throwing strikes, working with rhythm, being efficient, keeping people off the bases, is their fastball fast and their curveball curving. Of course, Daisuke is not most pitchers. He can have a good start and walk 8 batters.

What should we expect from Daisuke? Frankly (and not surprisingly), my expectations are low. This is a guy who was brilliant for two years (33-15, 3.72 ERA his first two seasons), then ugly for two (16-15, 5.03 ERA). Any other starting pitcher developed normally in the minors would have been dismissed as a flash-in-the-pan that was figured out by MLB hitters, and couldn't cut it in the Majors. But since Daisuke did so well in the quadruple-A equivalent Japanese League, he still is expected to do well over here.

Negativity aside, there is at least potential for him to be good. We've seen it. And if he's not good, he can at least be serviceable, pitching 5 innings (with a 120 pitch count), and giving the Sox a chance to win. That's more than can be said for Daniel Bard, who Daisuke will replace in the rotation.

Bard will be making a start in AAA Pawtucket on Friday, as the PawSox face the Indianapolis Indians (who are the Pirates' AAA affiliate). Although it is technically a start, he will not be working as a traditional starter. His appearances will be short. The Red Sox claim that this is so he can focus on getting himself "back to being an elite pitcher." That's what Ben Cherington said. This minor league stint is about Bard getting back "on track."

In other words, Bard will be pitching short outings until he's shown the quality we've seen from him in the past. If he does well and Matsuzaka struggles, Bard can return to the rotation and give starting another go. If Matsuzaka settles in, then Bard can return as a reliever.

The Sox are being very diplomatic with how they're discussing Bard. They don't want to crush his confidence. They need Bard to fix his problems before he can return as a reliever or a starter. Matsuzaka gives them an easy way to be kind to Bard and say "We have 5 starters already, but we need your quality in the pen." It's sort of like a girl saying "let's just be friends." You don't feel quite so bad if she's already got a boyfriend.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Sox Put Up More Zeroes Against O's

You can't ask for much more from Josh Beckett. The starting pitching as a whole has been good lately. But the inconsistent Sox offense has once again cooled off. The Orioles have won their 7th straight game in Fenway Park, and that's simply shameful.

The reason the Sox are so streaky as a team is because they're streaky as units and as individuals. Incisive analysis, I know. When one aspect of this team struggles, though, it struggles big time. When the starters stink, they barely make the 5th inning. When the offense isn't hitting, they struggle to get 2 runs across the plate.

Look at a guy like Beckett. Brilliant one week, mediocre the next, crappy the next. And this lineup has been carried by role-player types, like Aviles, Ross, and Saltalamacchia. They can't go 2 for 4 every night. Not having Ellsbury hurts. Gonzalez just hurts.

The Sox offense is very good at piling on runs when a pitcher is struggling, and getting big innings. But when a pitcher is having a good night, the Sox will struggle just to get on base. And bunting isn't the answer. Neither are stolen bases. The Sox can't afford to use outs to get runners in scoring position. Then they have fewer outs/chances to knock those runners in. And they have a much smaller chance at scoring multiple runs in an inning.

On the bright side, Beckett pitched well. He went 8 and only allowed 2 runs off 5 hits. He didn't walk anyone. He struck out 5. Since being shelled on May 10th, he's gone 7+ in five straight starts. His record is 2-2 in those starts, but his ERA is 2.21. You can't ask for more from him, only that he keeps up the good work. Which has been an issue for him over the course of his career.

Darnell McDonald returned to the lineup, and was 1 for 2 with a double and a sacrifice bunt. I don't like small ball tactics. Runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs and the Sox give the O's an out. Byrd struck out after that, and Aviles popped out.

It was such a Bobby Valentine thing to do. And I won't say it cost the Sox the game, because it didn't. Their inability to get any hits cost them the game. But Valentine can't help but do something to influence the game. He's compelled to attempt to exert control over it. He can't just sit back and let it happen. Giving free outs to an opponent isn't how to break out of a slump (which is when you're already giving opponents too many easy outs). It only makes scoring harder.

The Sox are back at .500, and back in 5th place. It was nice to be over .500 for 9 days.

They need another good start from Buchholz tonight. He faces Brian Matusz. Matusz struggled in April. But in his last five starts he's 4-1 with a 2.87 ERA. One of those wins came against the Sox.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Yankees Outdo Red Sox in Soccer

Liverpool FC will be playing AS Roma at Fenway Park on July 25th. The Sox owners also own Liverpool so it makes sense. However, the Yankees recently announced that they'll be hosting a pair of soccer games, and both of them blow Fenway's out of the water.

On July 22 in Yankee Stadium, Chelsea FC (recently crowned European Champions) will play Paris St. Germain (PSG). PSG finished second in the French league, and will be playing in next season's Champions League. So will Chelsea, who finished 6th in England, but are still one of the most popular teams in the world, loaded with star talent.

On August 8th, Yankee Stadium hosts an even bigger game. Real Madrid are playing AC Milan. Real Madrid won the Spanish league (for the 32nd time), and have won the Champions League 9 times. AC Milan finished 2nd in the Italian league, have won that league 18 times, and have won the Champions League 7 times.

All four teams the Yankees host will be in the 2012-13 Champions' League.

Meanwhile, Fenway Park will host the 8th place English team, and the 7th place Italian team. Neither team will be in the Champions League or any other European competition. The two teams combined to win 30 games, lose 28, and draw 18.

Why care so much about soccer teams and exhibition games? Because it's another example of how big a world the Fenway Sports Group entered into when they bought Liverpool. They're out of their element.

Real Madrid is worth over three times as much as Liverpool, $1.877 billion compared to $619 million (Source: Forbes). Real Madrid and AC Milan combined are worth $2.866 billion, while Liverpool and AS Roma are together worth $973 million.

The Red Sox and Liverpool will both make some money when Liverpool comes to town, but the on field product isn't nearly as exciting or as enticing or as profitable as the giants that will be playing down at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees aren't attached to a mediocre English team. They can invite the best teams from Europe to play. And that will attract fans who will pay lots of money to see them play.

Liverpool is a 2nd rate team in danger of becoming 3rd rate. Fenway Sports Group was a big fish in a small pond when they bought Liverpool. But now they're in a much larger ocean. And the sharks are much bigger.