Alabama knows how to make a football schedule

Alabama opened their 2017 season with a convincing win over Florida State Saturday, giving the Tide an even firmer grasp of the #1 spot in the country.

But even if Bama had lost, because the game is so early in the season, they still would have been able to climb back up the rankings into a playoff spot. That's what's so ingenious about scheduling a marquee game against an elite opponent so early. It's the best time of the year to lose because you have almost 3 months to move back up as other top teams around the country lose games later in the year.

You're also guaranteeing yourself the spotlight in a Week 1 that is typically saturated with boring cupcake games. Penn State vs. Akron, Stanford vs. Rice, Howard vs. UNLV... well not that one. Anyway, with the spotlight on you, if you win, most of the college football world will see it and talk about it all week, enhancing your status as a top team.

The key to playing these top-tier non-conference opponents is a neutral location. This keeps Bama from going into a tough place to play (there's plenty of times they do that already in the SEC), and also gives their players the experience of playing big games away from home. So no home-field advantage, but no advantage for the opponent either.

Many teams schedule easy opponents in Week 1 partly because it can be a quasi-preseason game. Coaches want their players to get into a groove, especially their new starters. However the reality is, there is no disadvantage to playing a tough opponent in Week 1. The opposing players are just as rusty, their freshman just as inexperienced. It's an even playing field.

So instead, Alabama elects to play its easiest opponents in November, the Saturday before their Iron Bowl rivalry game against Auburn. Bama will host Mercer this year in the week before playing Auburn. Last year it was the Chattanooga Mocs. In 2015 it was Charleston Southern.

These games are like dress rehearsals for Alabama. The opponents are like sparring partners for the Tide to practice on, without any real threat of being hurt. The players get a bit of a break but also maintain their rhythm the week before going into what is often the biggest game of the year.

Bama doesn't leave Tuscaloosa unless they have to. They do not play non-conference road games. FSU was in Atlanta, the others will be at home (7 of Bama's 12 games this year are at home, 4 on the road, 1 in Atlanta). Alabama hasn't played a true non-conference road game since 2011 at Penn State.

None of this is a criticism of Alabama or Nick Saban. This is in praise and admiration. I'm also a bit jealous because I wish Bill Belichick and the Patriots could create their own schedule the way college programs are able to.

I also think it's weird that you don't see other teams adopting some of these approaches to scheduling (although many teams do not play non-conference road games). Why schedule a cupcake in Week 1 when you can add them into the schedule as a semi-scrimmage before a big game? Why avoid quality opponents when you can perhaps meet at a neutral location early in the season and either win to add to your resume, or lose and have 11 more games to recover.

The Army-Navy Game: the only thing about college football worthy of respect

I love watching college football. The crazy plays, the surprises, the suspense, the atmosphere, future NFLers playing alongside future insurance salesmen.

However, I do not respect college football. What the Army-Navy game has, the rest of college football lacks, and the absence of those things is why I have lost my respect for big time college football.

Army and Navy make respecting history a priority. Texas doesn't play Texas A+M anymore. Nebraska doesn't play Colorado or Oklahoma. The Notre Dame-Michigan rivalry is on hiatus, possibly returning in 2020. These historic rivalries are no more. Because of conference affiliations and money. History is a big part of college football, but respect for history is not a primary concern. It takes a backseat to revenue streams and endless conference realignments.

The Army-Navy game is top priority for both schools. Navy won't end the series because of an agreement to play ACC opponents 5 times a year. Army won't suspend the series because they join the Big XII. Army and Navy respect history and make that respect a priority.

The student-athletes are student-athletes. The academies are tough schools to get into. And they don't make exceptions to those who are gifted on the field but can't do the work in the classroom. The US Military Academy and the Naval Academy are schools first, and the schools support football teams. Unlike the big college football programs like Alabama and Oregon, which are teams that carry the school.

There are more important things than football on the campuses at West Point and Annapolis. The same can't be said about Tuscaloosa or Eugene or Norman or Ann Arbor.

The money doesn't control the programs. There won't be a non-profit "charity" that buys Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo a $3.1 million house. He does make $1.6 million a year, but there are 60+ college coaches making more than him. Army coach Jeff Monken makes $700,000, 93rd in the country.

There is money involved in both programs and in the game. CBS pays to broadcast it. These teams will gladly go to bowl games when eligible. But the money isn't the driving force behind every decision, as it is with other programs.

The programs don't allow the good of the football team to become a priority over basic human decency. Unlike Penn State, where football was more important than the safety of little boys. Unlike Florida State, where football (and baseball) was more important than finding the truth.

The programs don't put winning ahead of following the rules. USC, Ohio State, North Carolina, Miami, Oregon, Cam Newton, Reggie Bush. Recruiting violations, players making money, all happens under the noses of blind athletic departments. Even holier than thou Notre Dame took part in Manti Te'o's lying about his sick girlfriend, after he and the school learned he'd been duped and she didn't exist.

Moral corruption is as necessary to a big time college football program as state of the art locker rooms and training facilities.

Blissful ignorance is a prerequisite to be an administrator in the athletic department of a big time college football school. Deference to athletic departments and their ignorance is a prerequisite to be a high-ranking university official at these schools.

Finally, the biggest reason I don't respect big time college football but do respect the Army-Navy game is what happens after school. With the big time programs, even those who don't make the NFL have it made. A former Nebraska linebacker will get a cushy job at a car dealership in Lincoln because he had 100 tackles as a sophomore. Who cares if he doesn't meet his quota, he was the reason the Huskers beat CU (back when they played CU, now I guess Maryland would be Nebraska's rival?)

Meanwhile, an Army tackle will get a job commanding a platoon on a mountain in Afghanistan, a Navy cornerback will get a job as a Marine protecting an embassy in Iraq.

Cadets and Midshipmen face death, loss of limb, loss of peace of mind. Former Sooners and Tigers and Ducks and Wolverines face getting their drinks paid for by alumni and no student loan payments. They face NFL contract negotiations. They face reporters approaching them 5 years after they graduate, asking about the violations that were finally discovered at their schools.

Graduates (if they do actually graduate) of the big time programs live in a country made for them. While Army and Navy grads risk their lives to MAKE that country for all of us.

Go Army. Go Navy. You've already beaten big time college football in everything that matters.

Grading ESPN's MegaCast

ESPN got bold Monday night with their coverage of the BCS Championship Game. They went all out. They truly went balls to the wall. And some of their efforts worked, some did not.

The Title Talk on ESPN 2 was atrocious. Imagine watching people watch something. And not like a reaction YouTube video, watching people react to Two Girls and a Cup. This was watching 2-4 astute college football fans watching a game with 3-4 moronic people. "Is the guy who snaps the ball called the snapper?" That was a direct quote from ESPN 2's Title Talk.

Jemele Hill was also there. Remember she was the one who compared rooting for the Boston Celtics to rooting for the Nazis in World War II. She's not too smart, and is habitually prone to hyperbole, which means she's one of ESPN's favorite personalities. Why be smart and appreciated when you can be moronic and controversial? Which one results in more internet hits? That's all that matters for ESPN.

I will grade ESPN's Title Talk program with a D-. It's not a complete fail because it did what it tried to do, and have an inane conversation of ignorance. And I think NESN should learn from it and make a ThinkPink simulcast for Red Sox and Bruins playoff games in the future. The Pink Hats would love it. The rest of the real sports fans will watch the actual game.

The BCS Film Room merits an A-. It was great. Truly great. There were some small problems, like keeping pace with the live feed. However, the coaches and experts were interesting, informative, and honest. As a BC fan I gained new appreciation for Steve Addazio. And it was also cool to listen to thoughts from Texas A&aM's Kevin Sumlin, and Pitt's Paul Chryst.

The only critiques I have for the Film Room coverage is that Matt Millen monopolized conversation. Just let other people talk, man. There was so much college football wisdom and knowledge in that room among 6 people, but Millen spoke more than a third of the words. And the show was somewhat disjointed. Which is typical for the first run of shows. But by and large it was great.

The Sounds of the BCS coverage on ESPN Classic was what it was. The TV broadcast without TV broadcasters. I'll give that a B.

The BCS Command Center on ESPN Goal Line gets an Incomplete because I don't get that channel.

All the features on ESPN3 get a B- because they delivered what they promised and nothing more. And for some reason Comcast Xfinity and my computer and phone have a major disagreement. I'll call it a philosophical misunderstanding. Watching ESPN3 feeds was fun while they lasted.

I thought it worked on some levels. Title Talk wasn't for me. Not at all, not one bit. But the BCS Film Room was fan-fucking-tastic. I mean it was awesome to behold how smart football coaches are, how they can read a play with just a few frames of footage, how they viewed the game in such an holistic way. They were schooling, non-stop.

The only drawback was that Matt Millen seemed to think his contract gave him the rights to 40% of the words, even though three respected college football coaches were in the room, along with two other college football analysts. Maybe in 2015 Matt Millen will get his own channel on MegaCast, and he can dominate his own conversations.

I'd love to see stuff like the Film Room for future big games, maybe for the Super Bowl, the Final Four, the Stanley Cup and NBA Finals, and so on.

R.I.P. BCS, Anyone Who Misses You Is Either a Fool, or Someone You Made Rich

The last BCS Championship game was a classic. But let's not give credit for the quality of the game to the system. Give credit to the players on Florida State and Auburn who busted their asses to play a great game. Great games happen with and without the BCS. Auburn/Alabama was a great game and the BCS had no control over that. It was an SEC game.

The BCS system defiled college football for 16 years. It wasn't just imperfect, it was intentionally flawed. It defied logic, common sense, and fair play. And those are three things that you're supposed to be taught when you attend college.

The BCS believed that out of the 100+ programs in Division I-A football, a formula could be created that would determine the top 2. And those 2 teams would play each other for the national title. The BCS actually believed it could devise a system to make this a reality.

That formula worked exactly one time, when Vince Young and Texas beat USC in early 2005. Every other year there were flaws, and arguments against legitimacy. Undefeated teams sometimes didn't make it to the national title game. Oklahoma once made it despite not winning their own conference. Even this year, Auburn's claim seemed just as good as other 1-loss teams.

Every other college sport uses a playoff system. And every other level of college football uses a playoff system. What prevented the top level of college football from using that system was the fact that money went to good old boys (and their friends) who ran bowl games, and also guaranteed money went to conferences that couldn't always guarantee the best teams (BigTen and Pac-12).

The BCS proliferated for so long because it worked for a select few who undeservedly wielded power over all of college football. And they also collected massive sums of money simply because their predecessors had rented a stadium decades ago.

The BCS wasn't just an imperfect system. Its flaws were an intentional byproduct of its design. It was designed to funnel money and TV contracts to a handful of bowl games, and the conference friends of those games. And the prestige of those games was based on who was friends with who. One hand washes the other.

And now that system is no more. It's been replaced by another system that rewards groups of absurdly wealthy men who get together and rent a stadium in early January. And those men receive millions and billions of dollars for their not-so-risky investment in a sure thing. The system is still just as corrupt and money-driven for those involved, but at least it's more exciting for the fans. At least it's a better system for determining the best team in college football.

If people are going to make money in sketchy ways, they might as well put an entertaining product on the field for all of us to enjoy. The Playoff will be more entertaining than just a one-game BCS Championship.

I'd say good riddance to a bad system, but that bad system lives on and influences the new system.

Texas Hires Charlie Strong, Three Quick Thoughts

1. Texas can't wait a day or two? They have to announce this hiring when the college football world is focused on Florida State and Auburn?

2. Mack Brown + Charlie Strong = Charlie Brown. Good grief.

3. Texas seems to like coaches with short, powerful names. Mack Brown leads to Charlie Strong. Another coach with a short, powerful name: Rex Ryan. Is sexy Rexy next in line for the job in Austin? As an Oklahoma fan, I sure hope so. As a Patriots fan, I hope Rex stays with the Jets for life.

Could BC's Andre Williams Win the Heisman?

There could be a perfect storm brewing that would put Boston College running back Andre Williams in position to win the Heisman Trophy. Two of the leading candidates - Johnny Manziel and Oregon's Marcus Mariota - are out of contention due to recent poor performances. And the most likely Heisman hopeful - Florida State QB Jameis Winston - is under a cloud of suspicion as he has been accused of sexual assault in 2012. Details of that situation remain unclear.

With these hazy conditions, a running back on a 7-win team has emerged as a potential winner of the most coveted award in college football. BC's Andre Williams has already passed the 2,000 yard mark and stands at 2,073. He's setting school and ACC records. He's responsible for 51% of BC's total offense. And he's the biggest reason that the Eagles have won 7 games this year, after only winning twice in 2012.

Williams has been on an absolute tear, rushing for 260+ in each of the last 3 games, accumulating 897 yards in that stretch (averaging 8.6 per carry) and 6 TDs. In his last 5 games he's rushed for 1,235 yards or 247 per game. He's scored 9 TDs in those games.

BC plays their final regular season game Saturday in Syracuse. The Orange are actually the 27th best team against the run in the country, in terms of rushing yard allowed per game (135.5).

If he has a monster game against Syracuse and pushes BC to an 8-4 record, he will continue to get Heisman consideration.

I like Andre Williams. I think it's good for him and for BC football that he's receiving this attention. However I don't think he's a Heisman winner. He doesn't do anything in the passing games (0 receptions). Against USC and Clemson he failed to rush for 100 yards (38 and 70, respectively). Five of his 16 touchdowns were scored against Army. He's carried BC, but only to 7 wins. BC has never been close to contending for a divisional title or anything more than bowl eligibility.

His season is impressive. It just doesn't knock your socks off like most Heisman winning seasons do. If Winston can't win it, then AJ McCarron would be my pick because he's led his team to an undefeated season (if Alabama do in fact go undefeated). There's also Northern Illinois QB Jordan Lynch (who added 4 more TDs to his total last night) and the Fresno State QB. As boring as it is to once again see the Heisman go to the best running quarterback in college football, Williams doesn't have the shock and awe value that previous Heisman winners have had. Or that these other 2013 hopefuls have.

He's done enough to earn a seat at the ceremony in New York, but not enough to go home with the trophy.

Rape vs. Football in a Big Football Town

Disclaimer, this is a somber post about a serious topic. There is some occasionally graphic language and imagery.

First, let me state that people are innocent until proven guilty. And as this Jameis Winston story has unfolded, the accuser stated that her attacker was under 6 feet tall, and Winston is 6' 4" tall. I have no idea if Winston is guilty, and this post isn't about his guilt or innocence.

If Winston is innocent, that doesn't mean that Tallahassee's law enforcement didn't try to protect the Florida State QB and the FSU football program from investigation.

In a statement released to the Tampa Bay Times, the family of the accuser claims that:

"When the attorney contacted Detective (Scott) Angulo immediately after Winston was identified, Detective Angulo told the attorney that Tallahassee was a big football town and the victim needs to think long and hard before proceeding against him because she will be raked over the coals and her life will be made miserable," the family said.

"The family also said that Angulo refused to collect Winston's DNA or interview his roommate, a possible witness in the case, because doing so would alert Winston and allow the case to go public."

Again, I'm not saying anything about Jameis Winston here. This is about a cop in Tallahassee telling a person accusing someone else of rape that they are in "a big football town," and that "she will be raked over the coals."

It's all too easy to imagine a Tallahassee detective warning someone that wants to accuse a Florida State football player (at the time of the alleged crime, Winston was a redshirt freshman after being a highly touted recruit) of sexual assault, that their life will be made miserable. I can imagine a similar conversation occurring in State College, PA if the family of a young boy wanted to accuse a Penn State coach of sexual assault.

"This is a big football town."

What the hell is a big football town? It's a town that identifies itself through a team. State College is home of the Nittany Lions. Tallahassee is home of the Seminoles. Football is life. Everything else, including the law and basic human decency, can very easily become secondary priorities. As it did in State College.

What's alarming is that this attitude could prevail in any college sports crazed town: Tuscaloosa, Norman, Eugene, Chapel Hill, Ann Arbor, South Bend, Syracuse, Lexington, College Station, Austin, Gainesville, Lawrence, anywhere.

And maybe the police weren't trying to protect Florida State or Winston. Maybe they were trying to protect the accuser from the onslaught that a "big football town" would unleash on her. If you accuse a star athlete of rape in these sports-obsessed towns, you're putting yourself in jeopardy.

And it's not just college towns.

Just look at what happened in Maryville, Missouri. There a 14-year-old girl accused star high school football players and wrestlers of rape. She was found the morning after a party, by her mother, passed out on their lawn in sub-freezing temperatures, weeping, disoriented. The mother gave her a bath and found her daughter to have anal and vaginal bruises. The town rallied behind the alleged rapists, threatened the girl on social media, the mother lost her job, and eventually the family felt compelled to leave town. Then their old house was mysteriously burnt down. Charges were dropped with no explanation. One of the accused players was related to a state lawmaker, whose picture hangs in the office of the District Attorney who dropped the charges.

Or Steubenville, Ohio, where members of the community rallied around star football players who were eventually convicted of sexually assaulting an unconscious girl. There were tweets and videos online of the accused talking about raping the accuser, as well as pissing on her. Yet still many in the town stood by the team and the accused players.

And as the guilty verdict was read, a CNN reporter focused on the plight of the student-rapist-athletes: "Incredibly difficult, even for an outsider like me, to watch what happened as these two young men that had such promising futures, star football players, very good students, literally watched as they believed their lives fell apart." Even after conviction, the athletes, the team, the sport are the focus. Not justice, not the law.

That's what can happen in "a big football town." When a team becomes larger than the town, or a school, or basic human decency. They become towns without pity.

State College, PA is perhaps the worst case of what the NCAA called "loss of institutional control" in "a big football town." When in fact the problem was that the institution - in this case the PSU football program and the university - had far too much power. The program exerted direct control over the school, and indirect influence over local law enforcement. Joe Paterno and Penn State football literally made their own laws, and deemed rape legal. Because in "a big football town," trivial things like boys being sodomized in a shower can't be allowed to get in the way of important things like the defensive scheme against Michigan State.

And it sounds like Tallahassee could be in the same category of Maryville, Stuebenville, or State College. Someone has accused a star football player in a big football town of sexual assault. Regardless of the validity or truth of the accusation against Winston, the accuser will have her life scrutinized, she will be raked over coals, people will try to make her life miserable. Not because of her, but because of who she has accused, and what he does for a football team.

It's difficult enough for rape victims to accuse their attackers. Women who accuse men of rape have their sex lives vigorously investigated, divulged in detail, and discussed in open court and in the media. Which doesn't happen with other crimes. Why is it that if you have your car stolen, the defendant's attorneys don't investigate the history of how you took care of your car, how often you locked it, where you parked, who you let borrow it. If a risk-taking daredevil is murdered, why doesn't the defending lawyer point out that the deceased frequently risked his life, and accuse the victim of "asking for it?"

In a big football town, a woman accusing rape faces more than scrutiny and moral judgment. They face intimidation, scorn, contempt, threats, being ostracized, being shunned. By accusing a football player of rape, they're attacking the team, which in essence is an attack on the whole community. So the community defends the accused, and sometimes savagely attacks the accuser.

These towns and cities don't just revolve around these sports teams. The sports teams are the town. The team is everything. Tuscaloosa is Bama football. Lawrence is KU basketball. And the people, the police, the school officials, and the coaches sometimes defend the program at all costs. Because if the program's image is tarnished, the community is tarnished.

And they will not allow that. Especially if it's some stupid, drunk, whore doing the tarnishing.

It's alarming. It's sad. It pisses me off.

It's sad if a Tallahassee detective warned a girl's family that if she accused Winston, her life would be made miserable, almost as if he were trying to convince her not to accuse him. It's sad that he's also correct and that such things probably will happen.

I don't know if Winston is guilty. I consider him innocent until proven so. Maybe this girl is lying. Maybe she's telling the truth. Maybe she thinks it was Winston but is wrong. Who knows.

What I do know is that in some communities, too many communities, and Boston isn't above this (see: BU hockey, or the morons who cheered for Aaron Hernandez the day he was arrested), people not only blindly defend their sports teams. They blindly ATTACK anyone who threatens the "good name" of their beloved team. No matter how much evidence there is, no matter how suspicious circumstances are, no matter how non-thorough the investigation is.

The team is above everything.

Sports are meant to unite and entertain communities, not define and control them.

Winston is innocent until proven guilty. So was Sandusky, so were the Stuebenville kids, so were the Maryville kids. Let's extend those same rights to those who accuse rape. They're also innocent until proven otherwise.

Ignorant College Football Picks*

Well, my picks were 7-9 last week, which drops my record below bowl eligibility at 22-23. But I have faith that we will get back to bowl eligibility. We will get to the Insight.com Bowl!

Anyway, here are my picks for Week 7 of college football...

Louisville -2.5 @ Pittsburgh
The game is being played at 11:00am. Why? Nobody knows. Scholars speculate...

Rutgers -7.5 vs. Syracuse
SU sucks.

Iowa State +7 vs. Kansas State
Iowa experiences crazy wind in October. Wind sometimes equals wins.

Oklahoma -3.5 vs. Texas (Dallas, TX)
As if I'd pick against OU in the Red River Shootout. Boomer! Sooner!

Wisconsin +2 @ Purdue
Because this isn't a train making competition.

Auburn +5.5 @ Ole Miss
Two bad teams squaring off. Pick the underdog.

UConn -5.5 vs. Temple
Why not? Dogs eat owls, right?

Miami +8 vs. North Carolina
Just because the spread is so high and Miami is at home. Probably a bad pick.

Maryland +1.5 @ Virginia
Don't respect UVA.

Alabama -21 @ Missouri
Sounds right. Close game early but Bama pulls away.

West Virginia -3.5 @ Texas Tech
Might be a 200 point game, but WVU should win by more than 3.5.

Stanford +7 @ Notre Dame
I haven't believed in ND all season, even though I probably should.

Florida State -28 vs. Boston College
Why not?

Florida -8.5 @ Vanderbilt
Also, why not?

Washington +13 vs. USC
Just a hunch.

LSU -2.5 vs. South Carolina
Don't think much of LSU, but it's home, it's night, it's their game to lose.

Even God Felt Bad for Savannah State

The Savannah State Tigers were losing 55-0 to Florida State in the 3rd quarter Saturday when both coaches agreed to end the game due to weather. The game had already been delayed by lightning, and more storms lingered in the area. It was in essence a Mercy Rule ending from God/Mother Nature for the Tigers.

The Seminoles were up 35-0 after the 1st quarter, and had already amassed 255 yards of offense. It was a 48-0 game at half-time, and 55-0 with 8:59 left in the 3rd when the game was called.

A week earlier, Savannah State was the victim of an 84-0 pounding from Oklahoma State.

In the two losses Savannah State allowed 1,095 total yards and only managed to gain 167, a difference of more than half a mile.

But don't feel too bad for the Tigers. They were paid for being sparring partners with two heavyweight programs. A total of $860,000 to be exact. That's a nice haul for a modest athletic program's financial needs.

And Savannah State were never anywhere near the all-time record for biggest college football blowouts. In 1916 Georgia Tech annihilated Cumberland College 222-0.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo/Steve Cannon

Bowl Previews: This Week's Bowls*

We've got quite a few bowl games this week. Two today, two tomorrow, two Thursday, Then even more as New Year's approaches. My record for picking these games hasn't been bad. 3-5. Better than I was doing with picks earlier in the year.

Today - 4:30 PM - ESPN
Little Caesars Bowl - Detroit, MI
Western Michigan Broncos vs. Purdue Boilermakers (-3)
WMU has a good offense, but a poor defense. They can throw the ball. Purdue is in the middle of the pack defensively and offensively. The polite word is "balanced," the appropriate word is "mediocre." Kalamazoo is only 2 and a half hours from Detroit. I think WMU has the edge in this game.

WMU +3

Tonight - 8:00 PM - ESPN
Belk Bowl - Charlotte, NC
Louisville Cardinals vs. NC State Wolfpack (PK)
UL lost to Florida Int'l, and Marshall. NC State lost to BC. Neither of these teams impresses me. NC State will have the crowd behind them. Louisville will struggle to put up points. I'll take a 4-4 ACC team over a 5-2 Big East team.

NC State (pick 'em)

Wednesday - 4:30 PM - ESPN
Military Bowl, presented by Northrup Grumman - Washington, DC
Toledo Rockets (-3) vs. Air Force Falcons
Toledo lost 4 games. To Boise State, Ohio State, Syracuse, and Northern Illinois. That's not awful for a MAC team. That loss to NIU was 63-60, which sums up Toledo's greatest strength (their offense) and biggest weakness (defense). Air Force doesn't have a defense that's anything special. They can run the ball (320.3 yards per game), so either they'll keep the ball away from Toledo's explosive offense, or they'll fall behind and need to chew up clock to catch up. Air Force isn't equipped to take full advantage of Toledo's porous defense.

Toledo -3.

Wednesday - 8:00 PM - ESPN
Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl - San Diego, CA
California Golden Bears vs. #24 Texas Longhorns (-3)
Cals 7-5 record was inflated by wins against some bad teams. Texas is in a similar boat, only not as bad. The Longhorns have more talent in this battle of mediocrity. They also crushed UCLA, whereas Cal lost to the Bruins.

Texas -3

Thursday - 5:30 PM - ESPN
Champ Sports Bowl - Orlando, FL
Florida State Seminoles (-3) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Two powerhouse programs that were expected to do well in 2011 but fell very short. I simply do not believe in Notre Dame. Sure, they won 8 games, they beat Michigan State, but their schedule is packed with bad teams. BC, Maryland, Purdue. FSU, on paper, is a much better team. And they'll be the better team on the field as well.

FSU -3

Thursday - 9:00 PM - ESPN
Washington Huskies vs. Baylor Bears (-9.5)
Washington lost to pretty much every good team in the Pac-12. They allow 33.3 points per game, which does not bode well for a matchup against RG3 and the Bears of Baylor. This game should see plenty of points. But Baylor will have more of them. Much more of them.

Baylor -9.5

College Football Picks: Week 4*

Last week my picks were 2-5. On the season, I've made 20 picks, and have a record of 7-12-1. So things haven't been going very well. Factor in a 10% vigorish that the loser typically pays in a sports bet, and I'm averaging a -31.5% return on investment with these bets. That means for every $100 I theoretically wager, I'd get back $68.50 and lose $31.50. That's not good.

So I would advise that you look at my picks, and do the opposite.

This is a big weekend in college football. There are three huge conference games that could go a long way to determine BCS berths. #14 Arkansas is at #3 Alabama. #7 Oklahoma State is at #8 Texas A&M. #11 Florida State is at #21 Clemson. And here are my picks:

NC State +7.5 @ Cincinnati
I still have faith in the Wolfpack, and think very little of the Bearcats.

Syracuse -2 vs. Toledo
Why not? If Cuse loses, then I'll still be quite happy.

Boston College -9 vs. UMass
I'm tempted to take UMass on this one, but BC has got to be pissed, their defense should stop anything the Minutemen can muster, and Montel Harris might be back.

Florida State +2.5 @ Clemson
One team coming off a big loss, another coming off a big win. I think FSU is slightly underrated at the moment, and the opposite is true of Clemson. I'm sure Jenn Sterger agrees.

Arkansas +12.5 @ Alabama
In my preseason SEC preview, I picked Arkansas to win the West because they'd match up well with Alabama. When you're wrong most of the time, it's best to stick with your first pick. That way, at the most, you can only be wrong once.

Texas A&M -3.5 vs. Oklahoma State
OSU is good, A&M is better, and playing at one of the best home stadiums in the game.

LSU -5.5 @ West Virginia
I have a feeling like LSU might get worn down with their tough schedule. But until it happens, I can't not pick them.

USC +2.5 @ Arizona State
Why not?

College Football Preview: BCS Bowls

So I've gone through the BCS conferences, and now it's time for me to predict which teams go to which bowls, and who wins the National Championship.

Here's who I picked as BCS conference champs:
ACC - Florida State
Big East - West Virginia
Pac-12 - Stanford
Big XII - Oklahoma
Big Ten - Nebraska
SEC - Arkansas

And here's who I think the 4 at-large teams will be:
Oregon
Texas A&M
Michigan State
Alabama

So here are my bowl picks:

Rose Bowl:
Michigan State vs. Stanford
I think Stanford outduels a very solid MSU team.

Sugar Bowl:
Alabama vs. Texas A&M
Texas A&M might be introducing themselves to the SEC with a win in New Orleans here.

Fiesta Bowl:
Oregon vs. Oklahoma
Oregon beats Oklahoma in a 100+ combined point slugfest. Who wouldn't want to see this game?

Orange Bowl:
Florida State vs. West Virginia
FSU tools on WVU in a battle of the bottom two BCS conferences. Who would want to watch this game?

National Championship Game:
Arkansas vs. Nebraska
A very entertaining defensive battle which will see Nebraska prevailing because they have a good QB and that's what separates these two teams.

Now imagine how entertaining it would be if these 10 teams (plus maybe Ohio State and South Carolina) were involved in a 12 team playoff. It's too bad.

College Football Preview: ACC*

For the most part, the Atlantic Coast Conference is similar to the Big East. There are lots of teams that are very good at one aspect of the game, and then godawful at another. However, the ACC does have some legitimately powerful teams at the top. So it's a slightly more entertaining conference to watch.

1. Florida State Seminoles

FSU was solid across the board last year, winning 10 games and going to the ACC title game. They were 33rd in scoring offense, 24th in scoring defense, and they return 17 starters. All their top skill players are back, and QB EJ Manuel has done well in the bowl games he's had a chance to play in.

DE Brandon Jenkins amassed 13.5 sacks last year, their secondary is excellent, and even their kicking game will be good. If not for a meeting with Oklahoma, they'd be strong candidates to run the table.

Key Games:
9/17 vs. Oklahoma
10/22 vs. Maryland
10/29 vs. NC State
11/12 vs. Miami
11/26 @ Florida

Prediction: 12-1, ACC Atlantic winner, ACC title game winner, National Title contender

2. Virginia Tech Hokies

Frank Beamer is 2 wins shy of 200 as Virginia Tech's head coach. The Hokies' offense will have a lot of fresh faces. Most notably, QB Logan Thomas replaces Tyrod Taylor. Thomas is 6' 6" and 245 pounds, but Taylor's playmaking abilities will be sorely miss. Last year Tech had the best offense in the ACC, and the 21st in the country. They'll struggle to be that good again. Although guys like RB David Wilson will still get to the end zone. He rushed for 5 TDs last year, and caught 4 more.

The defense was their weakness last year, and it will have to become a strength. They allowed 155.9 rushing yards per game. They have some stars on that side of the ball, but they're balanced with some liabilities. Thanks to a favorable schedule, and Miami being under siege, the Hokies should still be able to win the Coastal Division with relative ease.

Key Games:
10/8 vs. Miami
11/17 vs. North Carolina

Prediction: 11-2, ACC Coastal winner, ACC title game loss

3. Miami Hurricanes

Will they play? If they do, how many of them will play? Will they be eligible for anything? They were a likely contender to vie for the Coastal Division title. Although they had tough road games in Blacksburg and Tallahassee. The Canes had been experiencing a rebirth and a return to relevance. And now, who knows?

I feel bad for first year head coach Al Golden. After being the defensive coordinator at Virginia, he gets hired by the U in December and probably feels like he's in heaven. Now he's got to tread through a see of someone else's crap.

4. NC State Wolfpack

NC State is defensively strong. Their LBs rush the passer (sacked the QB 41 times last year). 8 starters return from the 24th scoring defense in the country. Unfortunately, the offense will be painful to watch. QB Mike Glennon is untested. There are talented but unproven RBs behind him, and an ugly WR situation. Glennon will be protected by 3 solid returning linemen, but that will just prolong the agony each snap.

Nevertheless, the defense will keep them in games, and they do play in the ACC.

Key Games:
10/29 @ Florida State
11/26 vs. Maryland

Prediction: 10-2

5. Maryland Terrapins

Maryland fans should be excited about new coach Randy Edsall, who built up UConn's program from I-AA to a BCS berth. They should also be excited about QB Danny O'Brien, who threw for 2,438 yards, 22 TDs and 8 INTs as a freshman. Backs DJ Adams and Davin Meggett will run the ball well. Any RB named Meggett is bound to be good, and UConn produced some quality RBs under Edsall. All this, combined with an opportunistic defense that scored 4 times last year, and you get a solid team. Despite a rough schedule, they'll be pretty good.

Then again, they play FSU at home, and if they can win that, they might go to the ACC title game, and possibly a BCS bowl.

Key Games:
9/5 vs. Miami
9/17 vs. West Virginia
10/22 vs. Florida State
11/12 vs. Notre Dame (in Landover, MD)
11/26 @ NC State

Prediction: 9-3

6. North Carolina Tar Heels

UNC went a solid 8-5, only losing to respectable teams. So despite the loss of QB TJ Yates, they should be poised for another decent season. WR Dwight James will be a prime target for new QB Bryan Renner. James had 946 receiving yards last year. And as usual, the Tar Heels boast a strong defensive line.

However, their weak secondary combined with an under-powered rushing offense will make it tough for them to hold leads. The Heels won't be able to drain the clock on the ground, and their opponents will be able to throw the ball at will. For now, UNC is just too raw to win the Coastal division.

Key Games:
10/15 vs. Miami
11/5 @ NC State
11/17 @ Virginia Tech

Prediction: 8-4

7. Boston College Eagles

If this were 1896, and the forward pass were still illegal, then Boston College might be one of the best teams in the nation. RB Montel Harris ran for 1,243 yards last year. And the Eagles had the #1 rush defense in the country. Harris underwent arthroscopic surgery recently, but he should return for the heart of BC's conference schedule.

Unfortunately for the Eagles, passing is part of the game now. BC doesn't have any legit pass rushing threats, nor does it really have a quarterback. There are decent WRs to catch the ball, but no passers to throw it. Meanwhile, BC's offensive play-calling resembles a pro team with a decent QB more than a college team with no QB but a great running attack.

It's frustrating to watch BC football these days, because the defense can play extraordinarily well, only to watch the offense lose the game. Stud LB Luke Kuechly accounted for 183 tackles last year, 110 of them on his own. He's gotten 10+ tackles in 22 straight games. He's a beast, and at least he is entertaining to watch.

No passing game, and a difficult road schedule mean that BC will struggle to make a bowl game.

Prediction: 7-5

8. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

I love watching Georgia Tech play. How can you be a fan of college football and not love a team that averaged 323.3 rushing yards and 83.9 passing yards per game last year. The Jackets had the #1 rushing offense and the #119 passing offense. But that was just yardage. They struggled to score. And that struggle will continue in 2011. QB Tevon Washington only completed 41% of his passes last year, so the passing game isn't even a legit wrinkle for GT. It's a leak.

Defensively, they run a 3-4 with few LBs who can make plays. And that just doesn't compute. They'll struggle for bowl eligibility.

Prediction: 5-7

9. Virginia Cavaliers

UVA's 4 wins last year came against Richmond, VMI, Eastern Michigan, and (surprisingly) Miami. But that's actually an improvement. You know the expression "nowhere to go but up?" That was how UVA football could be described in 2009. They dramatically improved in 2010, and had the 75th best scoring offense in the country, and 70th best scoring defense. That sounds awful, but they used to be out of the top 100 in both categories. Now they need to continue to improve. If a QB and/or RB can emerge, then they might just do that. Their defense should also get better, as they return 7 starters. They also have an easy non-conference schedule.

Prediction: 5-7

10. Clemson Tigers

Clemson has a revamped offensive style that lacks the talent to make it effective. They have some good receivers and that's pretty much it. The defense lost its key players up front and in the secondary. It will be a solid unit, but not good enough to keep their lackluster offense in many games. Their kicking is also a major liability.

Prediction: 4-8

11. Duke Blue Devils

Duke is exceptionally good at passing the ball. QB Sean Renfree threw for 3,131 yards, and they have good WRs. It's convenient that they're such good at throwing the ball, because they're going to be behind a lot due to an atrocious defense.

Prediction: 4-8

12. Wake Forest Demon Deacons

They'll use an option offense because their QB can't pass the ball. RB Josh Harris ran for 720 yards and 7 TDs as a part-timer his freshman year. They'll improve on their 91st ranked scoring offense, and their 110th ranked scoring defense, but not by much.

Prediction: 3-9