Patriots trade Logan Mankins to piss everyone off

Maybe Bill Belichick and the Patriots decided to make this move because all the excitement and optimism from the fans and media about the 2014 season was making the Pats players too cocky. It's a diabolical plan to fight overconfidence. Trade an All-Pro offensive lineman to Tampa Bay for a tight-end that was falling down the Buccaneers' depth chart. And make that a tight-end from Rutgers, so sports radio pundits have something simple they can repeatedly be sarcastic about. Change the noise surrounding the team from Super Bowl predictions, to spoiled fans whining and moaning.

This is an ingenious scheme to make the fans and media worry about the offensive line, which will in turn cause the players to remain humble and hungry.

Or it's an example of how improving at one position costs you at others.

Tim Wright caught 54 passes for 571 yards and 5 TDs last year. And that was with Mike Glennon throwing passes to him. He's listed as a tight-end, but he's a WR/TE hybrid. He's 6' 4" but only 220 pounds and isn't much of a blocker. He played receiver in college.

The Patriots have better pass catchers today than they had yesterday. They also have more cap space (Wright's cap hit is just under $500,000, and they save about $4 million by trading Mankins) to sign a replacement guard or improve at other positions.

Patriots fans and critics have been pining for better receivers. Did they think such improvement would be without a price?

The Patriots have a worse offensive line today than they had yesterday. And the offensive line is an area of concern. That's the price to pay.

The Pats have given Brady a weapon, but taken away a shield. We'll see if they go out and sign another offensive lineman as other teams trim their rosters. We'll see if the linemen the Patriots already have on their roster can be adequate at their position and fill in for Mankins.

Whether you like this deal, love it, hate it, or are not sure about it, you have to admit that it's bold. You trade an All-Pro offensive lineman for a second year tight-end. You improve at one position, get worse at another.

Photo Credit: Tom Croke/Icon SMI

Patriots Have Decent, Unspectacular Draft

If you were expecting much from this draft, you're either very optimistic, very unrealistic, or very stupid. The draft as a whole was low on talent. Can you remember the last time the team picking #1 overall waited as long as possible for someone to trade for their pick? The Pats were also picking at the tail-end of the draft. And unlike past years they didn't have many picks coming in.

All things considered, I think the Patriots did okay. They found some decent talent that could contribute in different ways. They found some guys who have problems, and if those problems are sorted they can be very good. They also made a deal to acquire LeGarrette Blount, who ran for over 1,000 yards in 2010. They got him for a 7th round pick and an Olympic runner who wants to be a part-time football player.

The Pats traded out of the first-round, which upset some people, seemingly more on principle than on losing a chance to get any specific player. Everyone I've heard complain about this trade has been unable to answer the question "Who would you have taken at 29?" These people have emotional baggage from previous drafts. They're mad at the idea of trading a pick (even though other teams did it), not this specific instance. The Patriots made a good deal to add to their number of selections in a very hit-or-miss, mediocre draft.

And here are my thoughts on who they took...

Jamie Collins, an OLB/DE was their first pick. Collins had a great junior year, but "dogged it" his senior year. He was playing for a very bad team. Some teams stay away from guys with his kind of reputation. But a good team with a good coach can take the chance. The logic is simple. If he tries, he's athletic enough to find a place on the field. If he doesn't, he's gone.

Then they drafted WR Aaron Dobson out of Marshall. He played as an X receiver with a bad QB. Now he'll be in the mix with a good QB. With the lack of current depth at WR on the team, Dobson has a chance to get reps. He just needs to learn the playbook, which is always tough for new players.

The Patriots drafted a pair of DBs from Rutgers in the 3rd round. They'll join former Scarlet Knight Devin McCourty. For the first time in years, the Patriots have a secondary that is not a complete mess at the top of the depth chart. Talib was a key player whose loss hurt in the playoffs. Dennard is an early-round talent who could be even better in his sophomore season. What the Pats need is depth in the secondary. The dropoff from Talib to backups is what killed them in the AFC Championship game. Neither of these guys seem like they'll be big impact players, but both should get playing time in certain situations. And that's what the Pats desperately needed from their defensive backfield.

In the 4th round the Pats took another WR, Josh Boyce out of TCU. He is a combine stud. Fast, agile, can be an outside-the-numbers threat. But he's inconsistent with blocking and catching. He entered the Draft as a junior so he might be able to hone those skills. If he can, he'll be very productive. If not, he'll be an obscure memory and an Arena League All-Star.

Michael Buchannan is a 6' 5" frame that needs to be filled in. He needs strength. Plain and simple. He's a DE/OLB that can drop into coverage, but he needs to get bigger. He also has a DUI arrest. So stop drinking and start lifting, Michael.

The Patriots ended their draft by taking their third Rutgers defensive player, linebacker Steve Beauharnais. He's small, but smart. He can play in different situations, including special teams. As far as 7th round picks go, he's not bad. Lots of upside here. Undersized LBs have done well on this team before.

So no players who will have jerseys sold at the Pro Shop anytime soon. The players that have the most upside also have downsides. There are a lot of "if he can" players here. So maybe one or two hit big. Maybe one or two find a role as a backup. And the rest get real jobs.

Maryland and Rutgers to Big Ten

When the SEC went to 14 teams, the other BCS conferences watched to see if it would work. It did work, and now the Big Ten is expanding. They're reportedly going to add Maryland, as well as Rutgers, taking them from the ACC and Big East, respectively.

Both teams would add an East Coast presence for the Midwestern conference. And Rutgers would help the Big Ten infiltrate the New York media market. The Big Ten already has a juicy TV contract with ESPN, as well as their own network, so adding teams in general only increases the content they can provide.

I'm getting a little tired of this musical chairs in college sports. I want it over with.

In 10 years or so, it will all be sorted out. There will be three major conferences, with 16 or 18 teams each: The Big Ten, the Pac-16, and the SEC. The ACC and Big East will combine as a 12 team league just below the Big Three.

And in Webster's Dictionary, the Big Ten will pay for the meaning of the word "ten" to be changed to "any number between nine and twenty." "Ten" will become an approximating word like "several."

Ignorant College Football Picks*

Well, my picks were 7-9 last week, which drops my record below bowl eligibility at 22-23. But I have faith that we will get back to bowl eligibility. We will get to the Insight.com Bowl!

Anyway, here are my picks for Week 7 of college football...

Louisville -2.5 @ Pittsburgh
The game is being played at 11:00am. Why? Nobody knows. Scholars speculate...

Rutgers -7.5 vs. Syracuse
SU sucks.

Iowa State +7 vs. Kansas State
Iowa experiences crazy wind in October. Wind sometimes equals wins.

Oklahoma -3.5 vs. Texas (Dallas, TX)
As if I'd pick against OU in the Red River Shootout. Boomer! Sooner!

Wisconsin +2 @ Purdue
Because this isn't a train making competition.

Auburn +5.5 @ Ole Miss
Two bad teams squaring off. Pick the underdog.

UConn -5.5 vs. Temple
Why not? Dogs eat owls, right?

Miami +8 vs. North Carolina
Just because the spread is so high and Miami is at home. Probably a bad pick.

Maryland +1.5 @ Virginia
Don't respect UVA.

Alabama -21 @ Missouri
Sounds right. Close game early but Bama pulls away.

West Virginia -3.5 @ Texas Tech
Might be a 200 point game, but WVU should win by more than 3.5.

Stanford +7 @ Notre Dame
I haven't believed in ND all season, even though I probably should.

Florida State -28 vs. Boston College
Why not?

Florida -8.5 @ Vanderbilt
Also, why not?

Washington +13 vs. USC
Just a hunch.

LSU -2.5 vs. South Carolina
Don't think much of LSU, but it's home, it's night, it's their game to lose.

Bowl Previews: Tomorrow's Bowls*

All four of these bowls will be played on Friday. It's a very packed day of football.

Friday - 12:00 PM - ESPN
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl - Dallas, TX
BYU Cougars vs. Tulsa Hurricanes (-1)
BYU won 9 games as an independent. They lost to Texas, TCU, and Utah, so that's not too shabby. Tulsa's losses are also nothing to be ashamed of (Oklahoma, Boise State, Oklahoma State, Houston). The Hurricanes have a good offense, and I think they'll be able to score against BYU.

Tulsa -1

Friday - 3:20 PM - ESPN
New Era Pinstripe Bowl - Bronx, NY
Rutgers scarlet Knights (-1.5) vs. Iowa State Cyclones
Rutgers will essentially be the home team. ISU only won 2 road games. Their big win came against Oklahoma State, but other than that, they were pretty bad. They struggle to score points, they allow nearly 30 per game. Rutgers has the 12th best scoring defense in the country, and it'll be a surprise if Iowa State puts up any points.

Rutgers -1.5

Friday - 6:40 PM - ESPN
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl - Nashville, TN
Mississippi State Bulldogs (-6.5) vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Long title, long school names. To make a long story short, both these teams went 6-6. But Mississippi State's schedule might have been a little tougher out in the SEC West. MSU was 4-0 outside of conference play. Wake Forest was 1-3, and that 1 was against Gardner-Webb.

Mississippi State -6.5

Friday - 10:00 PM - ESPN
Insight Bowl - Tempe, AZ
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. #14 Oklahoma Sooners (-14)
OU can't be happy to be playing in this part of Arizona. The question is, will they be motivated to prove something, or depressed and glum. Iowa is a tough team to figure out. They lost to Iowa State, but also beat Michigan. I think they'll at least make a game of it against a bruised and battered OU team.

Iowa +14

Feasting on the Big East

It looks like West Virginia is headed to the Big XII. This will be the third defection of a Big East school to another conference this season, and the sixth this decade. That's not counting TCU's decision to move to the Big XII. With WVU, Syracuse, and Pittsburgh leaving, what will happen to the Big East as a football conference? Can it maintain its BCS standing, or will it become a "mid-major?" Or worse?

Louisville, Rutgers, South Florida, UConn, Cincinnati. Five teams. That's all the Big East has for football. That won't work in the BCS. The Big XII is the next smallest BCS conference with at least 10 teams (11 if Missouri stays). Meanwhile, the ACC will have 14, the SEC 13, and the Pac-12 and BigTen have 12 each. So the Big East must add at least 3 teams (preferably more) to remain in the BCS.

But who will they be? In '05, they added Louisville, Cincinnati, and USF to their football league. Back then, there were plenty of solid C-USA programs to invite. Then UConn promoted its football team to I-A. These newcomers claimed 4 of the last 5 conference titles.

But who is out there for the Big East now? That well has gotten very dry. Houston is 7-0 this year, but was 5-7 last year. The Big East wants to add them. UCF was 11-3 last year, they're 4-3 this year. They are a Big East target. SMU is 5-2, but they've barely reached bowl eligibility in recent years and were 1-11 in 2008. The Big East is interested. These are the teams that could replace WVU, Syracuse, and Pitt. That's hardly worthy of a BCS berth.

Oh, the Big East has also been prodding Villanova to bring its football program up to I-A. The Wildcats are 1-7 this year (they beat Penn) down in I-AA.

There have been rumors that the Big East wants to add Air Force, Navy, and even Boise State as football-only members. Obviously Boise State would dramatically improve the conference. But why would the Broncos do it? They've reached the BCS without an automatic bid. They'd have to figure out what conferences their other sports would play in. And do they want to play their road games in Connecticut, New Jersey, and Ohio?

And who buys a ticket to climb aboard a sinking ship?

This ESPN.com article describes a convoluted plan to merge the Big East, C-USA, and Mountain West together as one super-league, with around 30 teams in 4 divisions, a playoff, and hopefully the winner receiving an automatic BCS berth. I think it's a bit too harebrained to even attempt.

The Big East isn't out of danger, either. Louisville is a rumored target of the Big XII. UConn and Rutgers would accept invitations to the ACC in a heartbeat. And if that happens, the Big East is essentially dead. It'd be USF and Cincinnati. Maybe Houston, Navy, UCF, and SMU would join them. But they would certainly not be a BCS conference anymore. They'd fall somewhere between the Mountain West and C-USA.

It's kind of sad. But the Big East has always been a bit too weird. Intentionally so. It was founded as a basketball conference, with the football side forming more than a decade after its original founding. The other conferences were about regional and historical teams joining together to compete in multiple sports. The Big East was about TV revenue from the start. They just picked the wrong sport to focus on.

They snubbed Penn State in 1985, and they've been different from every other conference since then. The idea of 8 football programs and 16 basketball programs sounds nice and neat, but it's messy. The Big East has always been two conferences with one label. How can you let Notre Dame benefit from basketball revenue when they don't share football revenue? How must schools like Georgetown and St. John's feel now that their basketball league is being threatened due to football? It's a crazy mess and always has been. Conferences are supposed to organize and regulate chaos, not cause it.

And a football conference centered in the northeast was doomed to fail anyway. You do have BC, Syracuse, Pitt, and WVU up here. Also up-and-coming programs like Rutgers and UConn. But we've seen that these teams are not going to decline the opportunity to be a part of big time college football, which is based in the South and the Midwest. That's where the big games are, that's where the money is.

Big East football is on life support. And the basketball is severely crippled. 19 Big East football titles have been awarded. And 15 of those are in the trophy cases of schools that have joined or will soon join other conferences. If UConn, Louisville, and Rutgers depart, say goodbye to 2 more football titles, not to mention UConn's basketball programs, along with the 20,000+ fans that Louisville averages at their basketball games. Don't forget about completely losing the New York market once Syracuse, UConn and Rutgers are all playing in the ACC.

As unfortunate as watching the slow death of a conference can be, the moves by West Virginia and TCU almost guarantee that the Big XII will survive. One conference dies, another lives on. The Big East has become an unwilling organ donor, sacrificing its parts to make other conferences healthy again.

The Big XII was in jeopardy a few months ago, but now look very strong. And they can add teams if they want to, like Louisville. They could add Houston to bolster their numbers (as opposed to the Big East, who would add Houston to compete for conference titles). The Big XII can offer Boise State a BCS bid along with geographic convenience. Same with BYU. And the Big XII's monopoly on Texas high school recruiting is an enticement no other conference can match.

The Big East will not be a BCS conference. It will be fortunate to remain in existence as a football league. The Big XII is safe, and might even grow to 12 members once again. Maybe more.

College Football Musical Chairs

The musical chairs of college football continue as Pitt and Syracuse will be joining the ACC. The move not only improves the football of the conference, it also dramatically improves the quality of the basketball. Syracuse, Duke, and UNC will all be directly competing against each other. The move also widens the ACC's footprint in the Northeast.

The ACC could stay at 14 teams, or it could easily expand to 16. UConn and Rutgers are very willing to join. Notre Dame has been rumored to be a target, and would obviously bring huge amounts of revenue and exposure to the conference. As a BC fan, I'd love if UConn and Notre Dame were to join Boston College in the ACC.

But Notre Dame's ample revenue streams are precisely why they won't join the ACC. They don't want to split their football money with anyone.

The ACC adding teams makes sense for several reasons. Obviously, adding quality football and basketball programs increases shared revenue for everyone. Also, the SEC is lurking, like a shark in deep waters and the ACC needs to protect itself.

Nobody knows how hungry the SEC will be to add teams. But if they do have an appetite, ACC programs like Miami, Florida State, and Virginia Tech might be on the menu. The ACC is actively defending itself in case that happens.

The Pac-12 has announced that it won't expand... today at least. They're happy with a 12 team conference and they'll all be making plenty of money.

This means that most of the Big XII is safe... today at least. Texas A&M will shuffle over to the SEC, and will likely do so uncontested now that the Big XII as a conference can still survive with 9 members. They may also add BYU or even West Virginia. The SEC has denied that it has already added Missouri.

The Big East is on life support. This isn't the first time. When BC, Miami, and Virginia Tech left, many thought that the Big East would die. So I don't want to start writing its obituary, but things seem worse this time around.

The Big East will be down to 7 teams with the departure of Pitt and Cuse (and the addition of TCU). If UConn and Rutgers defect to the ACC and West Virginia to the Big XII, the conference will either have to disband, or add low quality teams to survive. There simply aren't that many good non-BCS programs out there to add, though. Boise State, obviously. But who else? Houston? Central Florida?

I think the ACC will become the first 16 team "super-conference." They'll be an experiment for the other conferences to watch. If it works, then the SEC and others will follow.

We might end up with 4 BCS conferences (ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Pac-16), each with 16 teams, 4 divisions, and 2 rounds of playoffs. Then maybe the 4 conference champs, plus 2 wild cards could be in a National Championship playoff. That'd be fine with me.

College Football Preview: Big East*

After a quick glance at the preseason Top 25, you can see why the Big East added a team from Texas. TCU's ranked higher than West Virginia in the AP Poll, and WVU isn't even ranked by the Coaches'. WVU are the favorites, but each team in the Big East, including WVU, have big enough weaknesses that there are many contenders for that BCS bid. The conference title race might remain wide open until December.

1. WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS

The Mountaineers are men amongst boys in the Big East. QB Geno Smith will be the spotlight of the offense. He threw 24 TDs with only 7 picks last year, and amassed nearly 3,000 yards of total offense. But he was a supporting actor to Noel Devine, whose loss WVU will have to adapt to. They do have a solid WR group, and their O-line returns 4 starters.

Last year, though, WVU won with their defense. But they only bring back 4 starters. They have standouts such as DE Bruce Irvin, who'll be a full-time end after recording 14 sacks as a 3rd down specialist last year. Corner Keith Tandy intercepted 6 passes. But the linebackers are weak, and most of the secondary is vulnerable.

The offense will have to pick up the slack. But in the Big East, how many good offenses are capable of really exploiting WVU's weaknesses? Not many.

Key Games:
9/24 vs. LSU
10/8 vs. UConn
10/21 @ Syracuse
11/25 vs. Pitt
12/1 @ South Florida

Prediction:
10-2, Big East Champions, and a big loss in a BCS Bowl

2. PITT PANTHERS

Junior QB Tino Sunseri had a respectable 2010, throwing for 2,572 yards, 15 TDs, all with a 64% completions percentage. The offense will be more complex under new coach Todd Graham. In the backfield, RB Ray Graham (another junior) will carry the offense. He ran for 6.2 per carry his sophomore season.

Pitt returns 8 defensive starters from a unit that was 2nd in the conference and 15th in the country in scoring defense, and also 3rd in the conference and 8th in the nation in total defense. But Todd Graham's coaching strengths are on offense. He was also Pitt's 2nd choice in the off-season. He'll implement an "attacking 3-4" which will rely heavily on linebackers. That is also Pitt's only real weakness on defense.

In the Big East, though, there's enough wiggle room to experiment and try new things.

Key Games:
9/24 vs. Notre Dame
9/29 vs. South Florida
10/26 vs. UConn
11/25 @ West Virginia
12/3 vs. Syracuse

Prediction:
8-4

3. UCONN HUSKIES

UConn did well down the stretch last year to win their first Big East title. But they'll have to rebuild heavily at running-back, which has typically been their strongest position. There's also no clear choice at QB.

DT Kendall Reyes has NFL talent, and the defense returns 10 starters. However, there's plenty of room to improve. There's a new defensive coordinator, along with a new head coach. Without Randy Edsall, I don't know if this team will have the character it demonstrated in their stretch run last year.

They started slow last year then got on track. If they're able to do similar in 2011, they can do some damage, as their games against Big East contenders come back-to-back-to-back-to-back.

Key Games:
10/8 @ West Virginia
10/15 vs. South Florida
10/26 @ Pitt
11/5 vs. Syracuse

Prediction:
8-4

4. SYRACUSE ORANGE

Syracuse should have an improved offense, but that's not difficult to do considering they averaged a mere 22.2 points per game last year. That was 93rd in the nation. QB Ryan Nassib threw 19 TDs, and he'll be protected by an experienced line, and have experienced receivers to throw to.

Defense was their strength last year, but they lost 8 seniors. They need help at every level. They need 2 new tackles, 2 new LBs, and 2 new corners. They also need to figure out how to win at home. They were 0-4 in the Carrier Dome, against D-IA opponents. They did beat Maine and Colgate, which would be an impressive feat in hockey, not football.

Key Games:
9/17 @ USC
10/21 vs. West Virginia
11/5 @ UConn
11/11 vs. South Florida
12/3 @ Pitt

Prediction:
8-4

5. SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS

QB BJ Daniels has talent, but he makes mistakes. 11 TD passes, 13 INTs last year. The Bulls have plenty of options at RB, but none of them have been tested. They boast a deep defensive line. Three of their four defensive backs are returning, which is very nice since they had the 24th best passing defense last year.

Their 8-5 record was a bit of an illusion. Wins against Stony Brook, WKU, and Florida Atlantic helped inflate their total. Their 2011 schedule has similar cupcakes, like Ball State, Florida A&M, and UTEP. But, they have to go on the road for some tough games. At Notre Dame, at Pitt, at UConn, at Syracuse. Thankfully, they do host West Virginia.

Their subpar offense and their tough schedule will make this a trying year down in Tampa.

Key Games:
9/3 @ Notre Dame
9/29 @ Pitt
10/15 @ UConn
11/11 @ Syracuse
11/19 vs. Miami
12/1 vs. West Virginia

Prediction:
7-5

6. CINCINNATI BEARCATS

The Bearcats had the best offense and the worst defense in the Big East. And of course, only 5 return on offense, and 10 return on defense. The Bearcats have a good QB, a good RB, but they struggle to hold on to the ball. Their -15 turnover margin killed them last year. They'll get no help from their special teams, and at best, their defense won't hurt them. The offense simply won't be good enough to carry them far.

Prediction:
6-6

7. LOUISVILLE CARDINALS

Last year, Louisville won some games because of their between the tackles running, and their ability to defend against the pass (9th best pass defense in country). This year, their runningbacks are smaller. Their pass game isn't good enough to pick up the slack. The safeties are solid, but the corners are weak. This will be a year of practice for the 2012 season. But as of right now, Louisville will struggle to win games.

Prediction:
6-6

8. RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS

The0r 4-8 record was inflated by wins against Norfolk State, Florida International, and an OT win over Army. They were 101st in scoring offense, 110th in rushing offense, and 114th in total offense. Their offensive line allowed 61 sacks, which is an NCAA record. Their defensive pieces have been shifted around, but there's not much to work with there. The bright spot is their passing game, which was 79th last year.

Prediction:
5-7