Tebow is Human, Brady is Superhuman

Before a big game, it's very rare that Tom Brady is in the shadows of an opposing QB. Tebow got the talk, the praise, and the hype. And I think people kind of forgot that Patriot games are typically decided by how well Brady's offense does against the opposing defense. After all, this is an 11 win team, despite having one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

Brady completed passes to 8 different receivers, but he favored the tight-ends. Hernandez had a monstrous day, 129 yards on 9 catches, plus a TD. Gronkowski had a quiet day, at least for him, with only 4 catches. Wide receivers only accounted for 12 of Brady's 33 targets.

I'm kind of worried about this tendency if Branch gets hurt. Or even worse, if they lost Welker. Ochocinco did catch a touchdown, he did make some key blocks, but he and Brady aren't only on different pages, they're reading different books in different languages. When Brady wants him to go deep, he cuts. There's no on-field chemistry.

The Patriots offense moved the ball, scored often, and didn't turn it over. That's a big reason why the Pats won. If you can't stop Brady and the boys, I don't care how magical you think your QB is, it's going to be a rough day for you.

Looking at Tebow's performance, and two things come to mind:

#1: He had a better day as a QB than he usually does. 11/22, 194 yards, and some of those incompletions were to avoid getting sacked. This speaks to how exploitable the Patriots defense is.

#2: He had a worse day than most QBs have against the Pats. 194 yards, an 80.5 rating. Last week Grossman had a 92.2 rating against the Patriots. Orlovsky had a 113.2 rating. The Pats average over 300 passing yards allowed per game. If a guy can't throw for 300 on this defense, they're simply not that good.

The Broncos did run the ball with alarming effectiveness. Their line created huge holes, and it was frightening how well Denver rushed.

Tebow ran for 93 yards. Of course, that doesn't factor in the 53 yards he lost when getting sacked.

As a team, Denver ran for 252, and averaged 8.1 a carry.

However, if you want to try to win a game on the ground, you'd better avoid putting the football on the ground. That's where this game was ultimately decided. The Patriots did not turn the ball over. The Broncos lost 3 fumbles. There's nothing mythical or magical about it. It's football.

Anyway, the Patriots are 11-3, and they've clinched their 9th AFC East title in the Belichick-Brady era. I know that we won't be having a duckboat parade for a divisional title, but these used to be rare up here. This franchise had only made 10 playoff appearances (only 5 of those were divisional wins) before Brady and Belichick. And in 11 years, that number has nearly doubled.

This has been something special up here in New England. It's still going strong after 11 years.

Pats host the Dolphins at 1PM Saturday.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Bowl Preview: Saturday's Bowls*

It's that time of year again. Bowl season. And for the next 24 days we'll have previews and picks for every single bowl game. And I'd seriously suggest not betting based on my picks, because my record in picking college games this season was 24-41-1 before I got lazy/embarrassed and stopped picking games.

All these games will be played tomorrow. And they're all on ESPN. All times are Eastern.

2:00 PM
Gildan New Mexico Bowl - Albuquerque, NM
Temple Owls (-7) vs. Wyoming Cowboys
Both teams went 8-4 this season. And Wyoming actually scored exactly as many points (324) as they allowed. And while the Cowboys played in the Mountain West, which is a bit tougher than Temple's MAC, I'm going to pick the Owls because of their defense. They only allowed 13.8 points per game.

So Temple -7.

5:30 PM
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl - Boise, ID
Ohio Bobcats vs. Utah State Aggies (-1.5)
An interesting matchup between a balanced Ohio team, and a run-heavy, bad defense Utah State team. The Aggies can score points in bunches, they can also give them up in bunches. I'm going to pick the more solid Ohio team.

Ohio +1.5

9:00 PM
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl - New Orleans, LA
San Diego State Aztecs (-4.5) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
ULL are playing close to home (136 miles), but that's as far as their advantages go. SDSU lost 4 games, but they were to Michigan, TCU, Boise State, and Wyoming. So a BCS team, two that could have been in the BCS, and Wyoming. The Cajuns allow nearly 30 points per game and struggled to rush the ball.

SD State -4.5

Picking them also means I can post that picture. Wow.

We'll have more bowl picks on Tuesday.

The Cult of Tim Tebow

Every discussion about Tim Tebow seems to turn religious. I'm not referring to his own religious beliefs or how he expresses them. I have no problem with that stuff. I'm talking about Tebow himself. He's become a mythic figure, a gridiron demigod. He doesn't have fans, he has "followers." Those followers aren't just rooting for him, they "believe in" him. They believe in him because he doesn't just play well in the clutch, he performs "miracles." And if you don't like him or think he's overrated, then you're a "doubter."

I have never seen anything like it. The debates and discussions on ESPN, on sportsradio, on the internet, they all do remind me of something actually. Arguments between science and religion. Atheists try to explain away God with logic (which is foolish, by the way, it's like trying to discuss history with math equations, it's two unrelated languages trying to have a conversation), and fundamentalists try to dismiss logic with faith (equally as foolish). What happens is polarization.

I've heard Tim Tebow called a "polarising figure" but he's just a quarterback. We're the ones doing the polarizing. His disciples gush on and on about him. In response, his doubters (dubbed "haters" because I guess you can't just root against someone in sports anymore) spew statistics. The disciples respond with his 7-1 record. The doubters attribute that record to his defense and a bit of luck. The cycle continues ad infinitum, escalating unchecked.

For the record, I'm a Tim Tebow agnostic. In other words, I'm not sure if he's that good. He's better than Kyle Orton, but who isn't? He doesn't turn the ball over much, and he's performed well in come-from-behind situations, but he's had to come from behind because he sucks for 3 quarters. His defense has kept him in games (15.6 points allowed per game in their last 5 wins), and they've played bad teams that also make huge mistakes (See: Marion Barber).

Actually, I'm a Tim Tebow Jew. I believe that he exists, he's a man, he's not a bad player, but he's not the Messiah. He doesn't perform miracles. He's not supernatural. He's just a football player.

It's hard to stay in the middle of the road with Tebow. Everywhere you look, you're confronted with his fanatic believers and his equally fanatic haters. And it's annoying to hear about how great a player is when he's not great. It's annoying that you can't try to discuss him logically without being bombarded by one-step logic and emotionalism. "He just wins." Really? I thought the team did? Especially when they have to carry their QB until the final round.

The story itself has become a story. It's self-perpetuating. Each column about Tim Tebow spawns two more about the story of Tim Tebow. for example: Tim Tebow Quarterbacks New Young Chrisitan Faith. Debunking the Myths of Tim Tebow. This blog post is a perfect example. The story is no longer about a football player. The story is about the story of a football player.

And we're not discussing this football player in football terms. I keep hearing about how much of an underdog Tebow was, how nobody believed in him. Nobody believed him? He won the frigging Heisman! He was drafted 25th! He's been a highly touted player at every level from high school through college. He hasn't come out of the woodwork. He's 6' 3" and 236 pounds, hardly a small, scrappy, overlooked guy. Can we dispense with the underdog talk?

And the doubters are correct. He has not been a good NFL quarterback, at least not for most of the games he's played. You can argue that he's "a winner," but he succeeds despite sucking 75% of the time. He runs around too much, his mechanics are awful, his throws are hideously inaccurate. His 4th quarter stats are impressive. He has a 111.0 rating in the 4th. But he still has an 83.5 rating in the 3rd, a 50.3 rating in the 2nd, and a 64.0 rating in the 1st.

I've heard some argue that the 4th quarter is what matters most. That's true, I suppose. Unless the deficit is too large to overcome. What's the point of having a good 4th quarter if the opponent won the game by scoring in the other three while you were struggling to get first downs?

That's what happened for Denver against Detroit. The Lions were up 24-3 at halftime, 38-3 going into the 4th quarter. Tebow had a TD drive in that 4th quarter, rushing for 26, throwing 4/6 for 39 yards and the score. More Tebow 4th quarter magic. It made it a 45-10 game.

He's usually clutch though. That's indisputable. And he has his teammates believing that they can win. That's significant and that's a big part of winning. But that's as far as my praise will go. He needs his defensive teammates believing in him, becuase they're the ones who keep the Broncos in the game until Tebow stops sucking.

I'm a logical man, at least I try to be. I'm also capable of leaps of faith, but not when there's explicit evidence to the contrary. Tim Tebow is extremely overrated, overpraised, and overhyped. He's exciting in the 4th quarter, but the defense puts him in a position to play a relevant 4th quarter. He is 7-1, but the "winner" label is reserved for people who have started more than 8 games.

He's not the first QB to be hyped. Brady was a media darling in 2001. Roethlisberger was a huge story in 2004. Tony Romo in 2006, Mark Sanchez in 2009. Brady and Ben are still great. Sanchez isn't. Romo is somewhere in between. I seem to recall Kyle Orton being hyped when he started 6-0 with the Broncos in '09. But with Tebow, everything is amplified. His disciples fiercely defend him like a religious icon. They're not fans. They're zealots. You're attacking their faith when you call him "overrated" or point out that he's not good for 3/4 of a game. It's sacrilegious to speak anything but praise unto Tebow.

I don't hate Tim Tebow. I've never met him. If it weren't for the media hype, and for his legions of loud and delusional fans, I'd feel as indifferent toward him as I feel toward Tyler Palko. When I watch football, I try to keep things in perspective. He's a player. Because of his hype (and because of his opponent) I'm rooting against him on Sunday. I'll continue rooting against him all year. Because I'm tired of the story. I'm tired of the Cult of Tebow. I want their sacred cow to be smashed. He's just a man.

The Broncos Have More Than Tebow

This post will not mention the quarterback of the Denver Broncos. I will talk about him separately later today. This post is about a talented football team, that's playing well, even though we only hear about the quarterback. Who actually isn't playing well. But again, let's save that discussion for later.

As a Patriots fan, this game worries me. The Pats have a poor history against Denver. Tom Brady has a poor history against Denver. He's 1-6 against the Broncos, including his first ever playoff loss. He's thrown 11 TDs and 7 INTs against them. He doesn't even throw to Champ Bailey's side of the field.

Speaking of Bailey, there's some serious talent on the defensive side of the ball out there. Von Miller has 11.5 sacks, Elvis Dumervil has 7.5. They've also got Brian Dawkins and Andrew Goodman. They can cover receivers, and can pressure the QB.

Statistically, their defense isn't overly impressive. But in their current 7-1 stretch, they've allowed 20.3 points per game, and in their last 5 games it's been 15.6 per game.

Before their hot streak started, they were 1-4, but it's not like they were getting crushed. Apart from a 49-23 loss to undefeated Green Bay, they lost to Oakland by 3, to Tennessee by 3, and to San Diego by 5. So they were close to winning. They just needed to dump Orton, who threw 7 picks in those games.

They can run the ball. With their runningback and quarterback. They're the only team with over 2,000 yards on the ground. McGahee has 920 of them. They have only 60 fewer rushing yards than passing yards as a team.

This team seems to match up decently with the Patriots. I think that Brady and the offense will struggle to have a great game. I think the Broncos can rush the ball and eat the clock.

I'm not too worried about the Broncos' quarterback. To be blunt, almost any QB on the planet scares me in a two-minute drill against the Patriots' defense. What concerns me about Denver is their potentially stifling defense, and their ability to run the ball. They're a good all around team, even though we only hear about one of their players.

Otta-yawn

This was a sleepy game. Both teams played the night before, both had to travel. Neither team played very well, nor with intensity. Both teams made mental errors. The decisive difference was that Tim Thomas is a much better goalie than Craig Anderson.

Timmy looked much more comfortable and poised than his last start in Columbus. He made some big saves, he moved across the crease with speed and grace. He faced 49 shots and stopped all but 2 of them. And the second one probably should have been blocked by Joe Corvo.

The Bruins scored some breakaway goals, taking advantage of Ottawa's mistakes. But they made plenty of their own. Thankfully the Bruins have Tim Thomas, and the Senators only have one Daniel Alfredsson and one Jason Spezza. If time of possession were kept as a stat, the Senators would have dominated the category. I don't mind short possessions that end in breakaway goals, but the B's didn't take care of the puck in their own zone or in the neutral zone, and often didn't even get the puck into the offensive zone.

But, we are in the middle of December, 30 games into a long regular season. It was a back-to-back game against an opponent that can be beaten with less than 100% effort. And ultimately, it was a win. The Bruins' 20th win. Which ties them with Minnesota for the most in the NHL. The B's are 9-2-0 in the Northeast Division. They're one of 3 teams with 100+ goals scored. And they've only allowed 61.

They face one of the other 100+ goal teams on Saturday, in a matinee against the Flyers.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

RG3 Wins Heisman

Isn't it weird that the Heisman selects 5 finalists, and the BCS selects only 2? Maybe the BCS could learn something from the Heisman.

Robert Griffin III won the Heisman, by a significant margin over Andrew Luck, who finished 2nd for the second straight year. RG3 is Baylor's first Heisman winner, despite Baylor losing 3 games. Griffin won because of his "wow factor." He was by far the most electrifying of the potential winners.

Half his TD passes were for 35+ yards. He was the entire Baylor offense, and essentially the entire Baylor team. He won shootout games with his arm and with his legs. When Baylor was on TV, you had to watch, regardless of the opponent or score.

Andrew Luck is the best NFL prospect precisely because he's not as exciting. He's consistent, solid, mistake-free. He surgically dissects opposing defenses. RG3, on the other hand, slices and slashes through opposing defenses with a chainsaw.

Trent Richardson was as solid, dependable, and relentlessly powerful as you'd expect an Alabama runningback to be. He did his job, and did it well, scoring 20 TDs against notoriously stingy SEC defenses. He was the most productive offensive player on a team playing for a National Championship. He was a workhorse. But workhorses aren't as exciting as racing thoroughbreds. And that's what RG3 was.

Montee Ball was like Richardson, only he wasn't as well known at the start of the season, and didn't play for as good of a team. His 38 touchdowns weren't just against weak competition. He scored in every single game. He had four games with 4 TDs. He also had wide highways to run through thanks to Wisconsin's line. Ball entered Heisman discussion a bit after RG3 did. And while 38 TDs is impressive, RG3 threw for 36, and ran for 9. Which is more exciting, a 10 yard rushing TD or a 40 yard passing TD?

Tyrann Mathieu did have some of the most exciting plays on his highlight reel. But the reel is too short. I would love to see a defensive player win the Heisman again, but it won't happen unless they return half a dozen punts for a touchdown. Mathieu was electric, but he was just a few sparks here and there, while RG3 was a raging inferno every week.

So Griffin III won the Heisman. He's a junior. He might stay at Baylor and try to make a BCS Bowl. He might enter the Draft. If I were an NFL GM, I'd take Luck first, but I wouldn't complain about being "stuck" with Robert Griffin III.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

B's Get W From CBJ's

It wasn't a boring game, that's for sure. Physical. Fast. The winning team pulled its goalie. Joe Corvo scored 2 goals (2 more than he's scored in his last 31 games). Lucic was maybe the Bruins' worst player in the 1st, then their best in the 2nd. Fights. Breakaway goals. It was just a weird, wild game.

The Bruins came out on top though, in the latest example of how difficult it is to keep them pinned once they've been knocked down. Columbus was up 2-0, and the Bruins scored twice within a 45 second span to tie it. It was the 10th time this season that the B's have scored multiple goals within a minute.

Thomas got pulled for the 3rd period. He wasn't awful in the first 2, but he did seem disheviled. His movements were more frantic than usual. The breakaway goal he allowed to Umberger was very soft. His first soft goal of the season. Rask came in and was excellent. He stopped all 11 shots he faced.

Joe Corvo finally scored. His offensive contributions have been few and far between this year. And while his defense hasn't been bad, he was brought here to contribute on offense too. He's finally on the board with 2 goals.

Chara also scored. Then he hurt his leg. Word is that he'll miss three games. He's only missed 12 in the 5+ seasons he's been a Bruin. I'm very glad it doesn't seem very serious because he's the team's most valuable skater (6 goals, 13 assists, +18 against the opponents' top lines).

Bruins host the LA Kings Tuesday night.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Escape From DC

Let me start with a paragraph overreacting to the shouting match witnessed between Tom Brady and Bill O'Brien. This paragraph will sensationalize the heated discussion between the Patriots' QB and offensive coordinator. This paragraph will not mention that Brady and O'Brien were moments later seen calmly discussing things on the sideline, sitting next to each other. This paragraph will make implicating observations and comments about the chemistry in the Pats' locker room, and will end with an inflammatory question: Who really calls the offensive shots in Foxborough? Brady or O'Brien?

All they were really saying was "rabble, rabble, rabble, rabble."

Now with that over with, let's discuss this game. I think all except the most foolish of fans out there realize that the Patriots defense is a joke. Slater and Edelman are getting significant playing time. There are occasional turnovers forced, but there are also big plays allowed going the other way. This defense makes bad QBs look decent, decent QBs look good, good QBs look great, and great QBs look godlike. This defense has the same effect on quarterbacks as alcohol has on women at a bar, it makes them look much better than they actually are.

Devin McCourty is awful. He would have had a pick if not for a roughing penalty, but he has looked vulnerable all season long. It's not just a sophomore slump, it's a sophomore collapse. He gets torched, he struggles to cover, and he commits penalties to compensate for his failures. Fans shouldn't be allowed to wear McCourty jerseys to games, because opposing QBs will throw footballs in their direction again and again. And that could prove dangerous to spectators.

This team wins and loses based ENTIRELY on how well its offense performs. Brady had a slow start again (8/19 in the first half), and the half ended 20-20. Then Brady played a great 3rd and the Pats took a lead. The offense could have put it away, but Brady threw that argument inciting interception. And of course, the defense almost blew the lead.

When Brady and the offense are perfect, this team cannot lose. When he's great, this team is very difficult to beat. When he's just okay or a bit off for a few series, this team kind of sucks.

Gronkowski is the second most important player on this team. He's hauled in close to half of Brady's TD catches. He is the new NFL record holder for TDs caught by a tight-end. He also passed the 1,000 yard mark in this game.

Is this team going to go deep into the playoffs? That depends completely on the offense, because the defense is going to get ripped apart.

The Pats need to play much better as they're on the road against a hot team that's leading its division. Pats @ Tebow next Sunday evening.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo