Brandon LaFell Is the Opposite of Danny Amendola

The Patriots signed Brandon LaFell, formerly of the Carolina Panthers, to a three year deal.

What I like about this signing is that LaFell's strengths are the same as Danny Amendola's weaknesses.

LaFell is big. He's 6' 2" and 208 pounds, which is 3 inches taller and 25 pounds larger than Amendola.

Lafell stays healthy. He's played in 14+ games every year he's been in the League. He's played 60 games in 4 years and started all 16 last year.

Danny Amendola is a player who comes with lots of "ifs." IF he can stay on the field, IF he can avoid injury. The only if with LaFell is "If he continues to be what he's been."

He's caught 36+ passes in all 4 of his seasons. He's caught for 600+ yards in each of his last 3 seasons. In the last 2 years he's averaged about 3 catchers per game for 43.5 yards.

His numbers are far from eye-popping. He's clearly not a game-changer at wide receiver. If this were baseball, I'd say he's like a #3 or #4 starter in the rotation. An innings eater. Or maybe a middle reliever. You don't win because of him but he does help you win.

And that's where he currently fits in on the Patriots roster. Let's just assume you can't rely on Amendola to stay healthy. The WR depth chart goes: Julian Edelman, LaFell, then Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson. With LaFell in there, there's a less severe drop off from Edelman to Thompkins and Dobson. That means less pressure on those sophomore receivers, and someone besides Edelman that Brady can target.

He's an innings eater. He's a receptions eater.

I still think the Patriots could use more help at wide receiver, but the market is drying up. It's getting close to last call and the Patriots seem to be considering going home with psychopath Kenny Britt. I typically don't mind low-risk/high-reward signings like Britt would be, however I think adding uncertainty to an already very uncertain position might not be very sound. Not without finding another pass catcher with more reliability on and off the field. If you had a group of running backs with fumbling issues, would you address that issue by signing another one with butterfingers?

Then again, Britt is 6' 3." And he might be Building 19 cheap.*

*For those who don't know what Building 19 is, it used to be a really cheap store. Cheaper than Wal-Mart cheap

Patriots Make Everyone Happy and Sign Darrelle Revis

The Patriots and cornerback Darrelle Revis have reportedly agreed to a one-year deal worth $12 million.

To anyone who said that the Patriots should have franchised Aqib Talib and paid him $11.8 million for one year, do you wish to recant and repent? I'll give you a few moments...

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To anyone who completely freaked out yesterday and acted like they had PMS because Talib got signed by the Broncos, I'm going to give you a few moments to contemplate how foolish you were to get so overly emotional on March 12th...


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Let's also not forget the so-called "experts" who confidently declared that Revis would demand top dollar, probably costing $16 million a season. And that once Revis saw what Talib got, Revis would want a similarly large and lengthy deal. What actually happened was that Revis took a pay-cut to play for the Patriots. And the deal lasts one season. Let's think about how smart these pundits, who spend 365 days a year trying to figure out the Patriots, actually were...

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And now let's move on. Idiots.

I can't say I love the $12 million cap hit, however it's just for a year. And in terms of guaranteed money, the Patriots are paying less than half of what the Denver Broncos paid Talib. So the Pats get a better player, who is less injury prone, for less guaranteed money. They pay more per year, but both Revis and the Patriots have flexibility for 2015. Flexibility is everything.

I'm thrilled with this acquisition. They got Revis at less than what anyone expected. They've actually improved at a position despite losing their most important defensive player at the same position. How often does that happen? In any sport. Imagine a hockey team losing their starting goalie, or a baseball team their Ace pitcher, only to bring in someone else and improve at the position in less than 24 hours.

There's still more work to be done. The Patriots NEED wide receivers. Right now, their #1 WR under contract is Danny Amendola, and that's alarming. As much as I like signing Revis, by signing him it's now more difficult to sign the absolute best available receivers. So, foolish overly emotional Patriots fans, please remember this. Keep your expectations grounded when it comes to big name receivers.

Apart from receivers, the Pats also still need a second tight-end who can occasionally catch, a pass rusher or two, maybe another CB for depth.

Sun Tzu said in The Art of War that "Every battle is won before it's fought." Similarly, Super Bowls are won before they are played: in the off-season, in training camp, in practice. This acquisition helps the Patriots win the battles they'll find themselves fighting in the autumn and winter. At the same time, the off-season isn't over yet, and it's just one phase of the year.

I'm excited to see Revis in a Patriots uniform. But Super Bowls are played in February, not March. The 2014 NFL Year has only just begun. There are many more days left.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack

Broncos Overpay for Aqib Talib

It hurts losing one of your best players in free agency. It really hurts losing him to your toughest conference opponent. It's a sudden, shocking kind of hurt. Losing Talib is like having your hand smashed with a hammer. Hurts like hell but you'll heal. Bad contracts are like arthritis. Incessant, nagging pain that will last for years.

The Broncos signed Aqib Talib to a 6-year deal worth $57 million, $26 million of which is guaranteed.

That's $9.5 million a year for Talib. Which is too much.

That's a 6-year deal for Talib. Which is too long.

That's $26 million guaranteed to Talib. Which is too much.

It's just a bad deal any way you slice it.

I'm not happy to see him go, especially to Denver, but I wouldn't be happy making that deal. It's too much of an investment and a commitment, especially considering Talib's health issues and the potential for on-field and off-field issues.

And no, losing Talib doesn't mean the Patriots MUST sign or trade for Darrelle Revis. While they do need cornerbacks, you don't need an amazing CB to win. And having an amazing CB doesn't automatically make you a winner. The Patriots do need to improve the position. Even if Talib had stayed in Foxborough, I thought the Patriots needed more experience and depth at the position.

When the Pats have lost Talib to injury, their lack of depth has been exposed. Overpaying Talib doesn't help add depth.

The Patriots also need a better pass rush. They need to reduce the time their defensive backs have to cover opposing receivers. Spending too much on Talib would have meant having less to spend on this pass rush. Or wherever it is the Patriots spend the money they would have spent on Talib.

The Patriots also need receivers who can hold their own in battles against guys like Talib and other good DBs. The Pats need strong, physical receivers. Steve Smith comes to mind. What a diabolical pick-up that would be to put Steve Smith out there against Talib when the Patriots and Broncos play.

Overpaying Talib would have made it more difficult for the Patriots to improve elsewhere.

I am anticipating the pained whines and moans of Patriots fans this morning. "Couldn't the Patriots have made the leap from 8 million to 9.5? How much of a difference is 1.5?" "Another big name out the door." "When will this team spend on their free agents?" "I'm sick of it." "In Bill we trust."

I'm also anticipating the angry and emotional demands of the fanbase. "Get Revis. NOW!"

Yesterday's optimism as NFL free agency began and the sun shone down on New England, has been shattered by cruel reality. It's sunny and mild in Denver today. It's rainy and cold here. Let Denver enjoy this brief sunshine. This contract will burn them.

Photo Credit:
USA Today Sports

Happy New Year, Patriots Fans!

For all intents and purposes, this is New Year's Day in the NFL. Actually, it's New Year's Eve until 4:00 p.m. Eastern time. And much like the real New Year's, people are full of high expectations and hope. This is especially true of New England Patriots fans. There are rumors that Darrelle Revis will be cut by Tampa Bay, making him a free agent. There's speculation about freeing up cap space by cutting Danny Amendola and/or Vince Wilfork. Steve Smith is being mentioned in trade rumors. There are a number of wide receivers who will soon be free agents. So many happy possibilities! We can forget about 2013 and move on to next year. Fresh starts! New beginnings! HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!

Should old acquaintance be forgot, and never brought to mind...

However, just like the real New Year, people enter with ludicrously high hopes, then are often disappointed by harsh reality. This is also how Patriots fans enter into each and every off-season. They fantasize about Larry Fitzgerald, and having both Aqib Talib and Darrelle Revis on the field at the same time. They imagine trading for Steve Smith and moving up in the draft to select Sammy Watkins. Why not even add Jimmy Graham too?

You would think after years of following the Patriots, fans would learn to limit expectations and try to be as grounded as possible. Instead, with each passing off-season of disappointment their dreams seem to only increase in grandeur and decrease in plausibility.

Darrelle Revis is the latest object of Pats fans' fantasies. When word got out that the Buccaneers were shopping him, Pats fans immediately wanted to trade for him. Now that it seems like Tampa Bay might let him go, and Pats fans immediately want to sign him.

And so do I. He's a great player. If cap space weren't a consideration and the Patriots didn't need help elsewhere, it would be a no-brainer.

It's funny how the people who demanded Aqib Talib be re-signed are the same people now demanding that Revis be acquired.

It's also funny that the most passionate pleas for signing Revis are coming from the same people who were screaming the loudest about the Patriots needs at wide receiver.

I'm sure these sudden, dramatic, and sometimes conflicting shifts in demands are because these people are thinking rationally and not because they're reacting emotionally.

Unlike these people, who seem to know what to do, I don't think I could figure out a 53-man roster, along with all the salary cap numbers, and all the bonuses, and the guaranteed money, and the roster bonuses, and the workout bonuses, and juggle the cap in 2014 while thinking about the cap in 2015, and keep some money for draft day selections I haven't even picked yet. But these people who a few months ago demanded Aqib Talib be re-signed, then demanded a big tall wide receiver, and are now demanding Darrelle Revis, these people seem to know how to juggle all those variables. I'm impressed.

The complexities of an NFL roster are too much for a person like me to figure out. Especially since I only just watch football. The people demanding Revis, I'll just take their word for it. They've got it figured out. After all, they make it seem so simple. And they reach their conclusions so quickly. That's evidence of their clear and concise thought.

End sarcasm.

I'm not arguing against signing Darrelle Revis. He's a great player and he would help this team tremendously. I am arguing against overly simplistic and emotionally based arguments. I'm arguing against Patriots fans who should know better than to hope for a Daniel Snyder style off-season of buying names.

As I'm writing this, there are stories that the Patriots are close to re-signing Aqib Talib. I'm fine with that. I also think the Patriots need to add a #2 cornerback with experience, so when/if the #1 guy (whether it's Talib or someone else) gets hurt, or they face a team with multiple weapons at receiver, the Pats don't get burned.

There's an argument out there that Talib is injury prone, so he shouldn't be re-signed, therefore Revis should be acquired. That's valid. It makes sense. At the same time, such vulnerability suggests another argument: don't put your eggs in one basket. Don't over-invest in one player. When you invest too much in one player or at one position, at the expense of depth and at the expense of strength at other positions, you create an over-reliance on one player, and weaknesses at other positions. And if your one keystone player goes down, then you're weak EVERYWHERE.

The Patriots, when they've depended on one lone cornerback as the key to their defense, have been exposed when that single player gets taken out of the game or doesn't play well.

I'll take Talib plus a solid #2 CB and/or a better pass rush over Darrell Revis. That might not be what the Patriots do, it might not be the right thing to do, but at least my arguments are based on rationality and reason, not just emotion and over-simplification.

When you base too much on emotion, and ignore logic, even when you're right it's by accident.

Happy New Year, Patriots fans. I hope the Pats have a productive off-season and address more than just one of their needs. I also hope fans don't get too pie-in-the-sky hopeful about all the big names out there. Teams win Super Bowls, not names.