Ex-Patriot (emphasis on the X) Wes Welker suspended

What is a 33-year old man doing taking Molly at the Kentucky Derby?

As a Patriots fan, I'm not going to judge Wes Welker. There have been plenty of Pats players who have taken PEDs. There have been plenty of Pats players who have taken recreational drugs. There have been plenty of Pats players who have made bad life decisions.

However, I will call Wes Welker an idiot. And a bit of a tool.

I don't care what other people put into their body. If you want to smoke weed, snort coke, inject heroin into your veins, go right ahead. But if you want to go to the Kentucky Derby and make a spectacle of yourself handing out $100 bills, and you decide to take some Molly while doing it, you're leaving yourself open for ridicule, and worse.

Welker taking MDMA isn't the crux of the story here. Not for me at least. What's truly giving me a sense of Schadenfreude is that he was lionized by a small but vocal group of sports writers, pundits, and fans. He was the David in the David vs. Goliath narrative that unfolds whenever a player "stands up" against the cruel and stingy Patriots.

Welker became a hero to these critics and cynics. Just like Richard Seymour, Asante Samuel, and Logan Mankins. When players hold out or refuse to restructure their contracts or play hardball with the Patriots, these critics love it, and become their biggest fans. The players turn into Bob Cratchit asking Scrooge for a raise. Or Oliver Twist saying "Please, sir, I want some more."

Last year it even had some of them rooting for the Broncos to win the Super Bowl, just so Saint Wes could get a ring, just so it would stick in Belichick's craw. And before that, it had people defending Welker for taking out Aqib Talib in the AFC Championship game.

Welker is no saint. He's no hero. He's just a guy. He seems like a bit of a douche, which isn't uncommon for athletes. He seems like a bit of an idiot, which isn't uncommon for people in general.

Broncos Overpay for Aqib Talib

It hurts losing one of your best players in free agency. It really hurts losing him to your toughest conference opponent. It's a sudden, shocking kind of hurt. Losing Talib is like having your hand smashed with a hammer. Hurts like hell but you'll heal. Bad contracts are like arthritis. Incessant, nagging pain that will last for years.

The Broncos signed Aqib Talib to a 6-year deal worth $57 million, $26 million of which is guaranteed.

That's $9.5 million a year for Talib. Which is too much.

That's a 6-year deal for Talib. Which is too long.

That's $26 million guaranteed to Talib. Which is too much.

It's just a bad deal any way you slice it.

I'm not happy to see him go, especially to Denver, but I wouldn't be happy making that deal. It's too much of an investment and a commitment, especially considering Talib's health issues and the potential for on-field and off-field issues.

And no, losing Talib doesn't mean the Patriots MUST sign or trade for Darrelle Revis. While they do need cornerbacks, you don't need an amazing CB to win. And having an amazing CB doesn't automatically make you a winner. The Patriots do need to improve the position. Even if Talib had stayed in Foxborough, I thought the Patriots needed more experience and depth at the position.

When the Pats have lost Talib to injury, their lack of depth has been exposed. Overpaying Talib doesn't help add depth.

The Patriots also need a better pass rush. They need to reduce the time their defensive backs have to cover opposing receivers. Spending too much on Talib would have meant having less to spend on this pass rush. Or wherever it is the Patriots spend the money they would have spent on Talib.

The Patriots also need receivers who can hold their own in battles against guys like Talib and other good DBs. The Pats need strong, physical receivers. Steve Smith comes to mind. What a diabolical pick-up that would be to put Steve Smith out there against Talib when the Patriots and Broncos play.

Overpaying Talib would have made it more difficult for the Patriots to improve elsewhere.

I am anticipating the pained whines and moans of Patriots fans this morning. "Couldn't the Patriots have made the leap from 8 million to 9.5? How much of a difference is 1.5?" "Another big name out the door." "When will this team spend on their free agents?" "I'm sick of it." "In Bill we trust."

I'm also anticipating the angry and emotional demands of the fanbase. "Get Revis. NOW!"

Yesterday's optimism as NFL free agency began and the sun shone down on New England, has been shattered by cruel reality. It's sunny and mild in Denver today. It's rainy and cold here. Let Denver enjoy this brief sunshine. This contract will burn them.

Photo Credit:
USA Today Sports

Tim Thomas Throws a Nutty

I'm a big Tim Thomas fan. What he did for the Bruins was amazing. I like him because his career path was so untraditional, and required hard work and determination. The guy played all over the US and Europe before getting a chance as an NHL goalie. And in his two Vezina winning seasons, he began each campaign as the backup then earned the #1 spot.

I don't like what he did Tuesday night, slashing Bruins forward Carl Soderberg on the neck. It was a dangerous play.

I did enjoy Jack Edwards' indignation. After years of orgasming every time Thomas aggressively "protected" himself in the crease, Edwards now wants Thomas suspended. I used to think Edwards was just another homer announcer, only more exuberant than most. Now I think he's more of a hypocrite with double standards for the B's and the 29 other teams.

And you Bruins fans should measure your anger at this play. Listen to the TD Garden crowd chant Thomas' name after this slashing incident in the 2011 Stanley Cup Finals...

You loved when Thomas did this stuff for you. You don't get to act like you have moral high ground when he does this wearing a different uniform.

After the game Thomas joked about the State of the Union being less painful for him to watch then allowing 6 goals, and claimed that his slash of Soderberg was a response to something Soderberg did to him on a previous play.

Thomas has always actively defended himself. A slash to the neck is significantly worse than a slash to the leg, and I think a suspension or hefty fine would be appropriate disciplinary action for the League to take.

But I still like Thomas. I like him because of that fire he brings to the game.

And unlike Wes Welker, Thomas didn't injure one of his former team's most important players.

Tom Brady Needs Better Tools, and the Patriots Need a Better Tom Brady

Tom Brady needs more and better tools. By the same token, Brady needs to do his job with those tools. Brady didn't do his job this season. The Patriots should give Brady better pass catchers for next season, but Brady must throw better than he did this season.

The Patriots need more and better targets for Brady. That's obvious. Last year they planned/hoped to have Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Danny Amendola, Julian Edelman, and long shot rookies Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson. Those plans fell apart due to arrests and injuries. The Patriots' season ended with Austin Collie as the second most effective receiver on the field, Michael Hoomanawanui being targeted multiple times, and Matthew Slater being thrown to for the first time all year. That's just not good enough.

The season also ended with Brady missing Edelman and Collie. Also not good enough.

There's a wealth of talent on the wide receiver market. And size. The Patriots need to look for size. Size matters.

The Patriots need receivers that are matchup problems for opponents. As effective as Edelman is and as a healthy Amendola can be, they don't give defenses headaches. They are who they are and covering them is pretty straightforward. When someone like Gronkowski is on the field, however, the defense is forced to focus on playing against him. That leads to opportunities for everyone else. And Brady is a master at exploiting those mismatches. Guys like Gronkowski bring their own production and also boost the production of others. The Pats need another guy like that.

Which is why the Pats need a big, strong receiver. It will make everyone more productive because defenses will be forced to adjust to the threat. And then you're also no longer overly dependent on a tight-end who is playing physical on every snap, especially on running plays. Gronk was targeted 67 times in his 7 games. He caught 39 passes. Most of those in tight coverage, most of those plays ending with gang tackles or hard shots to his legs. The less wear and tear on him, the better.

I think Aaron Dobson works as a simple, vertical player. Obviously Edelman excels at the underneath stuff. Amendola is serviceable so long as he gets favorable matchups. And he'll get those matchups if the Patriots get that power receiver. And then Edelman will find gaps in coverage. And Dobson will sometimes find himself in a favorable one-on-one matchup on the outside and get open for deep bombs. Defenses will be forced to worry about underneath, over the top, up the seams, on the sides, guys like Shane Vereen coming out of the backfield, and of course the run. Matchup difficulties, baby. Give the defensive coordinator a migraine.

Getting a big receiver helps Brady and the offense so much. The thing is, Brady must help them back. "Do Your Job," became a Patriot mantra this season and at times Brady didn't do his job. His job is to find open receivers and send them the ball. His job was sometimes more difficult because of what he had to work with. But how many times did we see him completely miss open receivers?

The poor throws to Edelman and Collie against the Broncos were the latest examples. I've heard the argument/complaint/excuse that "Brady had to be perfect this season," but he didn't. He just had to make one more good throw to Edelman. Then the game changes. An abstract part of Brady's job is to change the game. He's paid to be a game-changer. He didn't do any game changing against Denver.

Just think about how much flak Edelman would have gotten if he dropped a well-thrown pass there. Edelman's job is to catch, Brady's is to throw catchable balls. Who did their job with more consistency this season?

Such missed throws were not a rarity for Brady in 2013.

Remember the non-pass interference call against Carolina? That ball was deemed uncatchable because it wasn't near Gronkowski. It was underthrown. Brady threw low and short to a 6' 7" tight-end. The officiating became the story, but if Brady throws a better ball then maybe Gronk makes a catch or the refs call the penalty. Who had more impact on Gronk's inability to make a play on that ball: Luke Kuechly or Tom Brady?

I'm not trying to saddle everything on Brady. He's one of the best ever and still one of the best in the NFL. Even as he ages, his mind remains sharp, and when he makes the throws it's truly a thing of beauty. I'm blaming his play. It wasn't good enough. He didn't do his job enough. Personally I think he played a significant part of the season with an injury, and not to his hand. Regardless of the cause of his play, he must play better to take advantage of any new weapons the Patriots give him.

You can give a man the best guns and ammo on the planet. But if he misses the target, what's the point?

If the Patriots give him tools, Brady has to do his job.

Photo Credit:
Barry Chin/Boston Globe Staff

Bill Belichick vs. Wes Welker Continues After Game, a.k.a. PickGate

Did Wes Welker set a pick on Aqib Talib? Clearly. Was it intent to injure? Only Welker knows that. Was it a targeted hit on Talib? Probably.

Bill Belichick seems to think so. And I'm inclined to agree. I know by agreeing with Belichick, that somehow invalidates my opinions. The cool thing to do is to disagree with him, and to side with Wes Welker. That's what people do when someone stands up to Belichick the bully. The media, the fans, they all side with the poor David of a player standing up to the Goliath of Patriot Management. Welker is like Bob Cratchit standing up to Scrooge, or the Ewoks from Return of the Jedi fighting against the Empire and Darth Belichick.

Welker's play was dirty. Maybe not an explicit intent to injure, but certainly an intent to hurt. I do think Belichick used some hyperbole in his remarks, making his comments sound like sour grapes. I've seen dirtier hits from defensive backs and receivers. Some of them wearing a Patriots uniform.

What makes me think Welker's actions were intentionally dirty is the timing, the players involved, and the potential benefits of hindering/hurting/injuring Talib. Not necessarily knocking him out of the game, but hitting him around enough so that he was less effective. The game-ending injury was a bonus for the Broncos.

The Broncos were held to 3 points in the 1st quarter (only the 19th time in 69 quarters of play that the Broncos failed to score a TD). Part of that was because Talib was covering Demariyus Thomas. Thomas had 1 catch for 29 yards in the 1st quarter. Once Talib was removed, Thomas exploded for 6 catches, 105 yards, and a TD. Without Talib, the Pats' coverage on other receivers also struggled, as everyone was forced to shift assignments.

It's something Welker witnessed first hand in last year's AFC Championship game against Baltimore. Talib left that game with a thigh injury. Anquan Boldin, whom Talib had been covering, took advantage of Talib's absence and scored 2 touchdowns. Meanwhile the rest of the Patriots' secondary struggled with their adjusted responsibilities. Talib's presence allows Dennard and Arrington to cover easier assignments. It also allows the safeties to give them more help.

Taking Talib off the chess board (or making him less mobile on it) would make things easier for all of Denver's offensive pieces to get open. Welker knew that.

I'm not saying Welker meant to injure Talib. But how often did we see him run into defensive backs like that while he was here? It didn't seem accidental. Maybe it was a mistimed block, which seems odd after the refs flagged New England for setting a pick.

Which is more likely, that Welker was setting an early block or that he saw Talib and saw an opportunity to make a hit on the Patriots' most important defensive player?

In hockey if a player hits someone away from the play like that, we assume there is an intention. If someone took a similar run at Zdeno Chara in a playoff game, for instance, everyone would know that it was deliberate and targeted. Especially if the team that took him out was struggling to score. So what was Welker's intention? To block? To send a message? To make an impact on a key part of the opposing defense which had done well to contain your high-powered offense?

Which is most likely?

Welker had motive: his team had been struggling to put up points and their best receiver wasn't much of a factor.

He had the opportunity as crossing plays are a big part of Denver's offense.

And he knew what losing Talib would do to the Pats' defense after seeing it firsthand against the Ravens last season and seeing how well Talib did against Thomas in the regular season (4 catches, 41 yards).

The most important defensive player was injured by an ex-teammate running into him away from the play. That's suspicious at the very least. It's probably intentional, and likely dirty. I think Belichick was a bit over the top in his analysis of the play. Then again, I'd be pissed too.

I don't think Welker should be suspended or fined or hated by Patriots fans for this. It was a physical play. He went after a key player on the opposing team. We've praised that type of play from the Patriots for years and criticized the lack of it when it's not there. Marginal dirtiness is something the Patriots are known for.

However, it is time to dismiss the childish fairy tale notion that Wes Welker represents the forces of Good fighting against Evil. It's time for media and fans to stop "feeling good" for Welker's success with the Broncos. He's a person, he's a football player, and he did something that was marginally dirty on Sunday. He injured the most important defensive player on the hometown team. Sorry, but that doesn't jive with the narrative that he's the good David fighting against the evil Goliath. He didn't use a slingshot to take down the Patriots, he used a dirty play.

Patriots-Broncos Drinking Game: AFC Championship Edition

It's almost here. Patriots vs. Broncos. Manning vs. Brady. Belichick vs. Welker. The time for talk has ended. Now it's time for two teams to play football. And for millions of people to heavily drink responsibly. Here's a drinking game to play while enjoying the AFC Championship Game.

Anytime a commentator says...
"Brady" = take 1 drink from a beer
"Manning" = 1 drink
"Legacy" = 1 drink
"History" = 1 drink
"The game" = 1 drink
"Meeting" = 1 drink
"Playoffs" = 1 drink
"Super Bowl" = 1 drink
"Eli" = drink for 10 seconds
"Mile High" = either take a shot of liquor or inhale a certain substance recently legalized in Colorado
"Home field" = 1 drink
"Blount" = either 1 drink or do the same as "Mile High"
"Mild" or "balmy" or any token weather remark = 1 drink
"Hoomanawanui" or any abbreviation = 1 drink the first time, 2 the second, and so on
"Logan" = 1 drink
Anything about the air being thin = hold your breath for 15 seconds then drink for 5 seconds


Anytime this is on screen...
Highlights from previous Brady/Manning games = drink for the entire highlight
Highlights of Brady/Patriots struggling in Denver = drink for the entire highlight
Clip or photo of Wes Welker in a Patriots jersey = 1 shot
Rodney Harrison = drink for 37 seconds
Ty Law = drink for 24 seconds
John Elway = drink for 7 seconds
Tim Tebow = finish your beer, take a shot
A rocky mountain = drink a can of Coors Light (it's water anyway)
Injured Patriot(s) on the sidelines, in a suite, on film = 1 drink per player
A graphic detailing injured Patriots = 1 drink per player
Vince Wilfork = 1 drink and eat 10 chicken wings
Rob Gronkowski (in person or on film) = finish your beer and Gronk-spike it
A Patriots fan in the stands = 1 drink per fan
A horse = half a beer
Peyton Manning in a suit and tie = 1 drink
Manning wearing something other than football jersey or suit and tie = 1 whole beer and 3 shots
Robert Kraft = 1 drink
Kraft talking to someone = drink the entire time he's talking
Jonathan Kraft watching the game with intensity, as if he were a coach = 1 drink


Anytime this happens...
Peyton Manning featured in a commercial = 1 drink
Manning says the name of a city (e.g. "Omaha") = 1 drink
Manning says the name of a state = 2 drinks
Manning says the name of a region or country = 5 drinks
Manning seems to change the play = 1 drink
Commentators praise Manning for play-calling = 1 drink
Manning makes a Manningface = 1 drink, and a free pass if you vomit
Tom Brady says "Alpha Milk" = 1 drink (bonus points for drinking a White Russian)
Brady points out the "Mike" = 1 drink (for bonus points, 6 drinks of Mike's Hard Lemonade)
You can actually hear Brady say anything before the snap = 1 drink
Somebody besides Manning or Brady makes a play, and the commentators continue to discuss Manning and/or Brady = 1 drink
Brady and/or Manning are compared with all-time greats = 1 drink
Brady throws to a tight-end = half a beer
That tight-end actually catches the pass = the other half of the beer
A commentator jokes or laughs about the complexity of Michael Hoomanawanui's name = 1 drink and 1 shot
Patriots run the ball = 1 drink
Patriots go play-action = 1 drink
Stevan Ridley runs the ball and doesn't fumble = 1 drink
Ridley fumbles = 1 shot
Patriots get into the Red Zone = 1 drink
Patriots score in the Red Zone = 1 drink for a field goal, a drink and a shot for a TD
50+ yard field goal attempt = 1 drink
Kickoff touchback = 1 drink
Kickoff return = drink for the entire return


So enjoy the game, enjoy the MLK Day hangover, and remember to get lubed up responsibly.

Let's Give Credit to Bill Belichick the GM

Bill Belichick has been praised for what he's done as a Head Coach in 2013. His team won 12 games, won a division title, and secured a first-round bye despite relentless injuries to key players.

I've even heard this interesting "hot take" (which sounds like a porn term) from sports pundits: Belichick's coaching is even more remarkable and praiseworthy, because Belichick the GM puts Belichick the Coach in tough spots with questionable personnel decisions. Suddenly Belichick is two people. One is a genius coach, the other is a GM that doesn't really know what he's doing.

I disagree. I think Belichick does a great job as the GM.

There was a time when this belief was common in New England. If anything his prowess as GM was arguably overrated and certainly overhyped. Everything he did seemed correct, even if it was counterintuitive. He drafted Brady and won a Super Bowl. He signed Rodney Harrison and won a Super Bowl. He signed Corey Dillon and won a Super Bowl. He traded for Wes Welker and Randy Moss and nearly won a Super Bowl.

However, when the Super Bowl parades stopped and the parade of fan favorites leaving the team began (Seymour, Vinatieri, Samuel, Law, Vrabel, Moss, Welker, Woodhead), fans started to grumble, and question Belichick the GM.

Draft picks were scrutinized. When Belichick traded picks, Pats fans groaned and screamed in agony, like they were passing a jagged kidney stone.

The Patriots continued to make the playoffs, but failed to go all the way. And Belichick the GM was to blame. He was the one who failed to build a defensive backfield, the one who failed to draft an outside receiver, the one who failed to acquire a pass rusher.

Patriots fans let their emotions revise their favorite team's recent history.

After Belichick let Welker go to Denver, people forgot that it was a Welker drop and a Brady safety against the Giants that cost the Pats Super Bowl XLVI. In the new version of history it was the GM's fault, and the cheapness of the team he ran.

And Super Bowl XLII wasn't won by a ruthless Giants pass rush or a freakish catch by David Tyree. The GM simply didn't put together a roster with enough talent to win the Super Bowl. Or at least that's what people criticizing Belichick the GM would be forced to conclude if they took their logic a few steps further.

If Belichick is a bad GM for letting Welker go, isn't he also a good GM for acquiring him in the first place?

And have the Patriots lacked the talent to win Super Bowls since 2004? Has that been the reason? Didn't a Reche Caldwell drop in 2006 potentially cost them a trip to the Super Bowl? Were they not talented in 2007? How about 2011?

Let's return to 2013 and look at the decisions made by Belichick the GM that have put the Pats in position for playoff success:

He drafted Julian Edelman. Belichick the GM is frequently (and quite fairly) criticized for failing with his WR draft picks. Edelman is finally a success story in that department. In 2013, the 7th round pick in 2009 caught 105 passes for 1,056 yards. He also has the highest punt-return average of all time. The Pats also re-signed him this past off-season. How good is that re-signing looking?

He drafted Logan Mankins. Belichick the GM has struggled to draft receivers, DBs, and other positions. But he's been more than solid at drafting offensive linemen. Who, by the way, protect the most important player on the team. Mankins is a 6-time Pro-Bowler at left guard. And now he's playing left tackle due to injuries.

He built the RB corps. The Patriots were 9th in the NFL in rushing yards (2,065) and yards per carry (4.4). They were 2nd in rushing TDs (19). Stevan Ridley (773 yards, 7 TDs) was drafted in the 3rd round in 2011. LeGarrette Blount (772 yards, 7 TDs) was acquired from the Buccaneers for Jeff Demps and a 7th round pick. Solid deal. Brandon Bolden (271 yards, 3 TDs) was an undrafted free agent. Shane Vereen (208 rush yards, 427 receiving yards, 4 total TDs in only 8 games) was drafted in the 2nd round of 2011.

When evaluating the job done by Belichick the GM, I think people get caught up with mistakes, bad moves, and moves that made them angry. I'll get you started: Ochocinco, Adalius Thomas, Ras-I Dowling, Jermaine Cunningham, Brandon Tate. But trying to weigh the good moves against the bad moves is an inexact science. Do you judge an architect by the individual decisions he makes when designing a building? Or do you judge him by the quality and strength of the building as a whole?

The only fair way to judge a GM is to look at the teams he puts together. Are they strong, talented, cohesive, flexible, balanced? Do the pieces make each other better? And when I look at Belichick's tenure as GM, I see some great teams (2001, 2003, 2004, 2007), I see some very good teams (2006, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012), I see some above average teams (2002, 2005, 2008). So 4 great teams, 5 very good teams, and 3 above average teams. What does that say about the GM?

I see 5 teams that undoubtedly had the players to win a Super Bowl (the GM's job), and 3 of them that did it, 2 of them were a few plays short. I see more teams that had the players to do more damage, but didn't make the big plays in the big games.

The jury is still out on 2013, but I think talent-wise they have enough to win it all. Despite the injuries. And if healthier just imagine how fearsome they'd be to face.

They're a flawed team in a League of flawed teams. However, the team's strengths are stronger than most teams. And that's because it was built by a good GM.

Never Leave Gillette Stadium Early

I can just imagine how pissed off at themselves fans who left last night’s game early were. They were probably on the highway, cruising along with minimal traffic, heat blasting waves of warm air, physically comfortable and emotionally pained. Miserable because they missed one of the best games of the year.

And that misery is deserved. Those people should be pissed at themselves. I’m pissed at them too. You drop a couple hundred bucks on tickets/parking/food/beer, you wear 20 layers of clothes, you still freeze your nads and/or tits off, and you leave at halftime?

Stay for a few plays in the 3rd quarter. Give it a half hour. See if the Pats can score or maybe stop a few Denver drives and make the game entertaining. It was only one play away from 24-7, two plays away from 24-14.

The game was entertaining. One thing the Patriots haven’t been this year is dull.

It started horribly. The Stadium had the same ugly vibe it had in the 2009 playoff game against Baltimore. Shock. A stunned irritation. So much anticipation for such a big game and then a massive let down in the first two quarters.

Give credit to this team for not packing it in and for coming out hard in the 3rd quarter. This offense is definitely back running on all cylinders, with Rob Gronkowski as the turbo charger.

Tom Brady’s throws are more decisive. He threw into the wind so much better than Manning. Brady was 17 of 23 for over 200 yards into the wind.

He has a full complement to throw to. The captain has a full crew. Rob Gronkowski changes the shape of the offense and forces defenses to change everything they do. Julian Edelman had a monster game with 110 yards and 2 TDs. Shane Vereen’s return the past few games has been a big boost. Kenbrell Thompkins can now be more comfortable as a supporting actor and not feel pressure to produce like a star.

The pressure isn’t on one receiver anymore. Danny Amendola doesn’t have to catch 10 passes a game. Aaron Dobson doesn’t have to lead the team in receiving yardage.

Tom Brady is now 10-4 lifetime against Peyton Manning. You can’t fault Manning for the punt return fumble at the end of overtime. You can blame Wes Welker for being indecisive and not helping his blocker out. That’s his job, he didn’t do it. And you can also blame Manning for throwing poorly in poor conditions. That’s always been an issue with him.

Screw Manning and screw Welker.

Within one game the Patriots turned themselves from a 7-4 team tied with the Bengals and Colts (and disadvantaged tie-breaker wise), and only 2 games up in the division, to an 8-3 team, the #2 seed in the AFC (with a potential tie-breaker over Denver if the Broncos lose again), with a 3 game divisional lead.

In other words, this was a huge win.

The schedule gets easier and warmer with a trip to Houston.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo/Steven Senne

Why Week 1 Against the Bills Worries Me

Normally I look at Patriots/Bills games as an almost automatic 'W' for the Pats. The Pats are 18-1 in their last 19 meetings, and 23-2 in their last 25. But for some reason this Week 1 meeting has me worried.

I can't help but feel like the Bills are overdue for a win. I know past results don't have any impact on the likelihood of future results and the whole idea of being "overdue" is typically only psychological. Then again, the Bills will be extra motivated. This is their Super Bowl. They'll be even more pumped than Detroit was in the preseason. The Pats, on the other hand, need to avoid feeling too confident against an opponent they've owned for over a decade.

Another thing that worries me is the timing of the game. The Bills like to torture their fans, giving them hope with early season successes, then crushing their spirits by deteriorating as the season wears on. Every Bills season is a Shakespearean tragedy. It may seem cruel, as I think it effectively shortens the life-span of Bills fans. However that's a kind, humane thing to do to people who have to live in Western New York.

The early season is when Buffalo has had their limited success against the Pats. In 2003 Buffalo beat New England 31-0 in Week 1, the infamous Lawyer Milloy game. In 2011 the Bills beat the Pats 34-31 in Week 3. Both of Buffalo's wins since 2001 have been in September and in Buffalo. Two wins isn't much. Mathematically speaking, however, since 2001 the Bills have had infinitely more success against the Patriots in September than in any other month. Two wins is infinitely more than zero.

And even when Buffalo has lost, Week 1 games have been close between these two teams. In 2006 the Pats won 19-17. In 2009 they won 25-24 on Monday Night Football. That was the game that Leodis McKelvin fumbled a kickoff return with 2 minutes left in what should have been a Buffalo win.

Week 1 against Buffalo after major personnel changes has me worried most of all. That 2003 loss to Buffalo came after the Patriots dropped Lawyer Milloy. The defense was in disarray. Tom Brady was out of sorts. It was preseason Week 5 for the Pats, not regular season Week 1. And this year the Pats have had to make dramatic adjustments: losing Welker to Denver, losing Gronkowski to injury (for now), and losing Hernandez to the Bristol County House of Correction.

On the bright side, the Pats started that 2003 season 2-2, then won 21 straight games, 38 of 40, and 2 Super Bowls. So maybe Week 1 losses to Buffalo aren't the end of the world.

Wes Welker Left Because He's a Wuss

In an interview with Sports Illustrated, Wes Welker has attributed his leaving New England to a frosty relationship with Bill Belichick. Welker claims that Belichick had begun to call him out in front of teammates, which he hadn't done before.

"It was just kind of hard, one of those deals where you have to endure him, put up with him... But he does it to everybody. It's the way he is."

Welker also still feels Belichick's influence when he speaks to the Denver media.

"When I'm answering questions from the Denver media, I'm not worried about what the Broncos' people are going to think, I'm worried about what Belichick will think. Isn't that crazy?"

Poor baby Welker. Was Coach Belichick mean to you? And you didn't want to play here anymore?

I wasn't happy about Welker leaving. But I got past it pretty quickly. There was contract confusion, Welker's agent seemed a bit amateurish, and the relationship between he and the team had grown sour. It was a rough breakup, but the Patriots moved on, and so did I.

However Welker is still going on and on about his feelings. Get over it, dude. You're a Bronco now. You're fortunate enough to go from catching passes from Brady (except those two you dropped in the Super Bowl and AFC Championship game) to catching balls from Peyton Manning. You're learning a new offense with new teammates in a new city with new people. Time to move on.

Yet your mind is still in Foxborough, still feeling unloved by Coach Belichick, still talking about how you couldn't talk in New England.

Stop the Taylor Swift routine and toughen up, Welker. Move on and shut up.

Why I'm Not Getting Emotional Over Wes Welker

Hey, fellow Patriots fans. Before you continue acting like losing Wes Welker is the end of the world, I have two facts for you to consider.

#1. Wes Welker was on this team for 6 seasons, and the Patriots won 0 Super Bowls.

#2. During that same time, 6 teams which did not have Wes Welker won 6 Super Bowls.

In other words, having Wes Welker doesn't guarantee winning. And not having him does not guarantee losing. There is a future for this franchise without Wes Welker.

I'm not happy to see him go. He was great here. NOBODY in the NFL could do what he did at the level he did it. The notion that his production and importance to the offense can be replaced by Danny Amendola or anyone else is utterly absurd. Without Welker, no matter who the Patriots acquire, the offense will be forced to change dramatically.

That being said, I'm going to reserve any strong emotional reactions until the off-season is complete.

The Patriots didn't think Welker was worth $6 million. Their offer was suspiciously close, but still too low for Welker to take. Did the Patriots offer him the $5M, then he got the $6M offer from Denver? Or was the order reversed? If the Patriots made their offer AFTER Denver, then they evidently didn't want him on the team anymore.

Why? Who knows? Maybe he has concussion issues, maybe they were worried about his future durability, maybe they want receivers that are more physical. Whatever. I am a "In Bill We Trust" guy, so I will trust the Patriots to figure out how to develop an offense without Welker. I sincerely hope that it's not the same kind of offense, relying on Julian Edelman in the slot. We got a sneak preview of that early in the 2012 season and it was a nightmare.

I heard some people, most vocally Michael Felger of 98.5, point out this "shopping at Wal-Mart" style of the Patriots is why they haven't won a Super Bowl since the 2004 season. Felger points to 2006, when the Patriots let Deion Branch go to Seattle.

Some people who are upset to see Welker leave seem to have selective memories about why the Patriots haven't won as many Super Bowls as they could these last 6 seasons...

I'm not saying you discard Welker because of this drop or his drop in the AFC Championship game. But don't revise history to suit your emotional argument. Don't forget that this drop was huge. And that despite the "Patriot Way" of bargain hunting, which is being so heavily critiqued for not delivering a title, it would have resulted in a title if Welker had done his job and caught this pass.

So calm down, people. This move, by itself, hurts. But let's at least wait and see what the Patriots do this off-season before throwing temper tantrums.

BREAKING NEWS: Wes Welker to Retire

Disclaimer: This isn't in any way true, nor is it even rational speculation. But everyone else in New England is reporting all sorts of stuff about Welker, from he and the Patriots being close to signing a deal, to Welker having "mild disdain" for the team and how negotiations went last year. This story is based on nothing.

Wes Welker is done with football. The rampant speculation out there in the Boston Sports Media is a mere screen for the truth: that Welker will be moving on from the game. He will be testing free agency in the world outside of sports, and attempt to find employment utilizing his Management degree from Texas Tech.

While this decision seems shocking, it does make sense. Once or twice I've seen Mr. Welker at Toby Keith's Bar and Grille in Foxborough, not playing football. On those occasions, he was not playing football, and yet seemed happy. It follows that he can be happy without playing football at all.

Professional football is also a very limiting business. There are only 32 franchises to choose from, in 31 markets. Welker's Management degree can provide him with opportunities in any city in the country. In the world, actually. How many times can you visit Orchard Park, NY until you get sick of it and want to travel across Europe or Southeast Asia? Welker might particularly enjoy Asia, where his height of 5' 9" would be above average (in China men have an average height of 5' 5.5" and in Japan it's 5' 7" and Indonesia's men are an average height of 5' 2"). Welker can finally be the tall guy in the room.

Finally, no matter what football team Welker could play for, there's very little room for advancement. He's hit his ceiling in the football industry as Starting Player. It would take years for him to rise above that position and enter Coaching ranks, and next to impossible for him to reach the level of CEO or President or Owner. I think Welker would rather start his own business, where he can run things the way he wants to run them. He can decide which direction to go instead of running routes in a playbook written by someone else.

So good luck, Wes. Enjoy your retirement.

I Would Not Miss Brandon Lloyd

74 catches, 911 yards. 74 catches, 911 yards. 74 catches, 911 yards. All week, whenever Brandon Lloyd has been discussed, these figures were repeated. Over. And over. And over.

I'm not impressed. Not at all.

On the surface 74 catches and 911 yards seems productive. Especially compared to what Chad Ochocinco gave the Pats in 2011. However, other numbers tell a different story about Brandon Lloyd's season. He was soft, unreliable, and not explosive at all. Numbers prove it.

Before I delve into those numbers, how many catches and yards would Lloyd have had if Hernandez, Gronkowski, and Edelman been healthy all season? I'd say 55 catches and 650 yards would be fair. So that 74-911 is partially due to Brady's other options missing time.

Brandon Lloyd was 2nd on this team with 74 receptions. But was 5th in Yards After the Catch (YAC). With only 180 YAC from 74 receptions, that works out to be an average of 2.43 yards after the catch per reception. That's abysmal. Especially for a so-called "outside the numbers" receiver. Lloyd fell to the ground quickly and skedaddled out of bounds at the first sign of trouble. He was soft.

As a team, the Patriots had over 2,000 total YAC. Lloyd's contribution to that was a measly 8.9%. Lloyd's 2.43 YAC per Reception was the worst among Patriots with 20+ catches. Danny Woodhead was the best in that category with 6.55, followed by Julian Edelman at 6.48, then Rob Gronkowski at 5.55, Wes Welker at 5.25, and Aaron Hernandez at 3.82. All but Hernandez doubled Lloyd's production after the catch.

Another stat demonstrates Lloyd's inconsistency and unreliability. All season long, he made absurdly difficult catches, but struggled with the easy ones. He was targeted 130 times (only Welker was targeted more at 174) and managed to catch the ball 74 times. That's 56.9%. And that's for a guy who spends most of his time on the outside, not in the clustered middle of the field. 56 times this season, Brady threw the ball in his direction and Lloyd didn't catch it.

Welker caught 67.8% of his targets, Gronkowski 70%, Hernandez 61%, Woodhead 73%, Edelman 66%. Whenever Lloyd was on the field, he was Brady's least reliable target.

Lloyd was inconsistent from play to play, and was also inconsistent from week to week. He only had four games with 80+ yards. And only eight games with 50+ yards.

Finally, Lloyd was not explosive at all. He had 10 catches of 20 yards or more. So 64 of his receptions were for 19 or less. In the NFL last season, 55 players had 10+ catches of 20+ yards, so his 10 aren't stunning (especially considering his 130 targets). Lloyd only had 2 catches of 30+ yards. He averaged 12.3 yards per catch, which was a career low.

He did catch 50 first downs, which was 2nd only behind Welker's 74. Then again, the Pats had 256 receiving first downs, so his contribution was less than a fifth. And the Patriots ran for 151 more first downs (407 total), so his contribution is more like an eighth (12.3%).

I'm not arguing that Lloyd is a problem and needs to go. He was kind of productive, in his own way. But, he was also soft, limited, not explosive, inconsistent, unreliable.

Replacing Lloyd's 74 catches and 911 receptions might prove difficult. But getting more meaningful production from someone else won't be hard at all.

Patriots and Tom Brady Agree to Extension

The New England Patriots and Tom Brady agreed to a contract extension that would keep Brady in Foxborough until 2017, when he would be 40 years old. The additional 3 years are reported to be worth a total of $27 million. The restructured deal also creates $15 million in cap space for the Patriots the next 2 seasons.

Two things jump out at me after reading this.

#1: How Tom Brady, compared to Peyton Manning, doesn't seem to mind if he's the highest paid QB in the NFL or not. He's getting paid millions, but it doesn't become an ego thing with him like it does with his colleagues. He's confident enough that he doesn't need to be the highest paid, or be in the most commercials.

#2: There are rumors that the Patriots and Wes Welker are close to a long-term deal. That deal is rumored to be worth about $8 million per season. And that's close to how much cap space the Patriots created with this move. I know this is quite a conclusion to jump to. We're taking a fact, adding a rumor, and trying to produce a conclusion. However, the pieces of the puzzle seem to fit together very well.

Patriots Drop AFC Championship

Before I get into the game, let's watch this...

Okay, there's no way any normally balanced human being cannot be smiling after watching that, so let's talk about the latest Patriot playoff disappointment.

Last week I wrote a post stating that if the Patriots play their best, I didn't see how Baltimore could win. Unfortunately, the Patriots did not play their best. Far from it. Dropped passes, poor clock management, and poor offensive execution in the Red Zone and on 3rd downs. And the Ravens, ravenously capitalized.

The Patriots offense is good enough to win games on its own. The Patriots defense is good enough to combine with the offense to win games. The Patriots defense is not good enough to win games on its own. The offense played poorly on Sunday and put the defense in the position to do what they could not. This defense can win a quarter, maybe even a half. But it cannot win an entire game.

The injury to Aqib Talib exposed how shallow the Patriots are at CB. How many NFL teams would have Kyle Arrington as a starting CB? How many would have Marquice Cole on the roster at all? Hopefully in the 2013 season, the Patriots will not be one of those teams.

When was the last time this team won a tough playoff game? Last year's AFC Championship was tough, but Billy Cundiff helped. The week before that they demolished Denver 45-10. The last difficult playoff game the Patriots won without the help of a choking kicker was the 2007 AFC Championship against San Diego. That seems like a lifetime ago.

This team has the talent to contend for Championships every year. Their execution, however, is inconsistent. Wes Welker had a great game, but dropped a huge pass on 3rd and 7. Brandon Lloyd could have made a few more catches. Tom Brady threw more than a few balls off the mark.

And give credit to Baltimore. They took advantage. They swatted Brady's passes, their offense adjusted in the second half, they deserved to win.

The biggest difference between the 2001 to 2004 Patriots and the 2007 to 2012 Patriots can be measured by a handful of big plays that were made in '01, '03, and '04; and weren't made in '07, '11, and now the 2012 season. It's as simple as that. The talent, the coaching, the intelligence is there. And it will be there next season.

I can't wait for training camp.

Photo Credit:
The Associated Press

Patriots-Texans Drinking Game: Playoff Edition

It's the playoffs, and a rematch of a Drinking Game we had a few weeks ago. But that was dominated by the ever annoying Jon Gruden. So here's a new drinking game.

Anytime a commentator says...
"Foxhole" = 1 drink from a beer
"Bulletin board material" = 1 drink
"Swat" = 1 drink
"SWAT team" = 1 drink from a beer, 1 shot
"Biggest game in Texans history" = drink entire beer
"Belichick era" = 1 drink
"Brady era" = 1 drink


Anytime this is on the screen...
Highlights from Week 14 = drink during highlights
Rob Gronkowski's cast or brace = 1 drink
Iso replay of Aqib Talib covering Andre Johnson = drink during the entire replay
Iso replay of Wes Welker being covered = drink during the entire replay
Wade Phillips = 1 drink
J.J. Watt swatting a ball = 1 drink
Watt sitting on a bench = 1 drink
Bob Kraft = 1 drink
Bob Kraft talking to someone = drink beer the entire time he's talking


Anytime this happens...
Wade Phillips's remarks about Welker are mentioned = 1 drink
Dan Shaughnessy's remarks about the Texans are mentioned = 1 drink
The Texans run the ball on 2nd & 5+ = 1 drink
The Texans go play-action = 1 drink
Tom Brady yells "Aplha Milk" = 1 drink of eggnog or a White Russian
Brady points out the "Mike" = 1 drink (or 3 drinks from Mike's Hard Lemonade for bonus points)
Patriots get a 1st down = 1 drink
Patriots go no-huddle = 1 drink per snap
Patriots allow 10+ yard run play = 1 drink
Patriots force a turnover = 1 shot
Vince Wilfork forces or recovers a turnover = 1 whole beer, 1 shot
Wilfork returns a turnover for a TD = 1 whole beer, 1 shot, 1 pound of Texas beef
Kickoff touchback = 1 drink
Kickoff return = drink during the entire return


Get lubed up responsibly.

Patriots Win, Fans Act Like They Lost

I think the 3 Super Bowls, the 21 game win streak in 2003-04, and the near perfect season of 2007 have spoiled us in New England. The Patriots are 6-3 and have a 2 game lead in their division. But if you didn't know they beat the Bills 37-31 Sunday, you'd think fans and media in this town were reacting to a loss.

I can't believe of all people, I am the one advocating for optimism here. The Pats have problems but so does every other NFL team. Is Matt Schaub an elite QB for Houston? The Giants lost to the Bengals. The Falcons lost to the Saints. The 49ers tied the lowly Rams. What NFL team is significantly or even marginally better than the Patriots?

What does irk me about this team is the lack of "door-closing" plays by the offense. The Pats have the highest scoring offense in football. My problem with them isn't what they do or don't do, it's when they do or don't do it.

A perfect example was in the 4th quarter yesterday when Devin McCourty forced Fred Jackson to fumble. The Patriots offense then went 3 and out, including a Wes Welker drop, and punted. They took 19 seconds off the clock.

It was only their 8th 3 and out of the season, and their only 3 and out of the game. But it came at a time when they had an opportunity to at least run out the clock a bit, move the ball close to midfield, and force Buffalo to drive more than the 45 yards they had to on their next possession.

Another missed opportunity to seal victory came when the Patriots drove into the Red Zone and settled for a field goal. Stevan Ridley's false start was the keynote of that drive's end.

The Patriots defense isn't good. The pass rush is inconsistent, some of the most talented players are also young and inexperienced, and the secondary is Swiss cheese. As bad as they are though, Devin McCourty made more big plays in the 4th quarter than Wes Welker did.

The offense has the talent, they have the capability of ending games. They don't need to score 40 or 50 points to cover for an atrocious offense. They do need to take advantage of opportunities to clinch victory.

And maybe we all need to take a step back and adjust our perspective on this team. Let's enjoy their successes instead of criticizing every imperfection in those successes. Let's hope for perfection, but accept imperfect success.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Patriots-Jets Drinking Game

Here's a drinking game to play during Sunday evening's festivities. Every time certain words, phrases, or images are shown you have to drink a certain amount.

Anytime a commentator says...
"high-octane" or "no huddle" - 1 drink from a beer
"Oregon" or "Oklahoma" = 1 drink for the first mention, then 2 for the second, 3 for the third, and so on.
"Alfonzo Dennard" the wrong way (it's Duh-nard) = half a beer
Any press clipping about Mark Sanchez = 1 drink
Any press clipping about Tim Tebow = 3 drinks
"Tebow" = 1 drink
Talking about Tebow as a great human being = 1 drink
Anything to do with the number 666 = half a beer and a shot

Anytime this is on the screen...
Fall foliage = 1 shot and half a beer
Foliage from Vermont = the same as above plus a shot of maple syrup
Someone Tebowing = drink a beer for 6.66 seconds
Bob Kraft = 1 drink
Bob Kraft talking to someone = drink as long as he's talking
Bill Belichick pulling something from his sock = 1 drink
Bible verse = a shot for the number of the chapter, and drink from a beer for the number of seconds of the verse, so John 3:16 would be 3 shots and 16 seconds of beer
Any graphic or reference to Belichick as head coach of the Jets = a beer
Any clips from Hard Knocks = 1 drink

Anytime this happens...
Tom Brady yells "alpha milk" = 1 drink
Patriots get a rushing first down = 1 drink
Patriots allow a passing first down = 1 drink
Devin McCourty gets beat on a pass = 1 drink (even if it's incomplete)
Devin McCourty interception = 1 shot
Vince Wilfork tipped pass = 1 drink
Vince Wilfork recovers turnover = 1 shot
Vince Wilfork returns turnover for TD = 1 shot, 1 beer, 1 turkey wing
Rex Ryan is bleeped out or says something that'd be bleeped out = 1 drink
Wes Welker mentioning feet (even in a past video) = 1 drink
Gronk spikes the ball = 1 drink
Gronk doesn't spike after TD = 1 whole beer
Kickoff touchback = 1 drink
Kickoff return = drink until the return is over
Whenever Stevan Ridley or Aaron Hernandez carry the ball without properly securing it = 1 drink

Patriots Clutchless in Seattle

Clutchness isn't just coming through when the game is on the line. When there's a chance to seal a victory in the 3rd or 4th quarter, clutchness can be making the plays that don't allow an opponent to hang around and possibly beat you later. In other words, putting nails in the coffin when you have a hammer in your hand.

We haven't seen such clutchness from the Patriots in a very long time.

They don't put teams away. They let them hang around. And as alarmingly bad as the defense can be at times, I'm more disappointed in how the Patriots' "high-octane" offense runs out of gas when it has a chance to drive daggers into opponents.

Can somebody photocopy the part of the NFL rulebook about intentional grounding and leave it in Tom Brady's locker? Even though the one out of the end zone is something I've never seen called, the refs seem to be paying close attention to how/when/where he throws the ball away. Time for him to be more careful.

Here's another Brady beef. His interceptions were products of cocky throws. He makes brilliant pass after brilliant pass, then tries to get a little too brilliant, and attempts to force a ball that needs to be perfect in order to not be an INT. And no offense to Deion Branch, but it's unfair to expect the 5' 9" 33 year old to wrestle with defensive backs to haul in a catch.

There were some serious game-management miscues yesterday. All 3 second half timeouts were wasted. And then I don't know why the Patriots tried to run out the clock on the ground when Seattle was expecting them to run. Seemed like a great time for a play-action pass.

All game the run only worked when Seattle was caught off balance by it.

This offense's strategy has oscillated from crazy and aggressive (Julian Edelman trick plays) to overly conservative (those two Stevan Ridley runs in the 4th). I'd rather see something in the middle. I like aggressive play-calling, just not the insane aggression and the trick plays. With the lead and 3 minutes left, try to get 1st downs. Don't settle for forcing Seattle to call timeout twice.

Now to the defense. Last year, as bad as this unit was, they didn't give up many big plays. This year they can't help themselves.

There are no safeties on this roster. Sending players to try to play safety is pointless. They don't know how, and they're physically incapable of playing the position.

Maybe it's better to go without safeties, just keep 8 men in the box and attack the QB.

The defense is not going to win these games. It has to be the offense. That's just how it is. And the defense stopped Seattle with 3 minutes left and gave the offense a chance to end the game with the ball.

The entire roster (except maybe Wes Welker) and coaching staff are responsible for this loss. And even if the defense is more responsible, they have less talent. This offense should be able to finish games, and they haven't been able to.

The Pats are 0-3 against teams named after things that fly. Hopefully that just applies to birds because the Jets are in town Sunday.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Wes Welker Explains Comments

When Wes Welker remarked "It's kind of nice to stick it in Bill's face once in a while," I shook my head. Not because I was worried about animosity between Welker and Belichick, but because I knew that some desperate wings of the Boston Sports Media would dissect and discuss those remarks as if they were anything more than a joke.

Welker has confirmed that his words were in jest. This is nothing new for him. He has a Kevin Millaresque streak of silly commentary.

What convinced me that Welker was just joking is that he said anything at all. If there truly were a serious rift between Welker and Belichick, I doubt Welker would be absolutely silent on the matter, then air his grievances during a post-game interview, then call his remarks a joke. It doesn't make any sense.

I'm sure Welker wasn't happy about Julian Edelman essentially being promoted above him on the depth chart. I think everyone in New England apart from Edelman, Josh McDaniels, and Bill Belichick was unhappy about that. It was a mistake. I don't think there was an ulterior motive behind it, such as punishing Welker for holding out or trying to reduce his free-agent value for 2013. I think the Patriots saw something in Edelman that never materialized during the games. The decision was wrong. Simple as that.

But Welker has materialized now that Edelman has been sidelined by injury. In the first two games of the season Welker caught 8 passes for 109 yards. Since then, he's averaged 10 receptions and 125 yards per game. And he caught his first TD of the season on Sunday.

So it seems as though Welker has definitely earned his job back. That's good for the Patriots, bad for the rest of the NFL.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo