Monday, April 23, 2018

The Tuukka Rask Problem: Rask gets worse as series get longer

As series grow longer, Bruins goalie Tuukka Rask's performances get worse. His splits in playoff series speak for themselves.

Games 1-4 Games 5-7
Record: 27-13 6-12
GAA: 1.93 2.77
SV%: 0.936 0.904

In his Game 6 starts, Rask is 1-5, with a .901 save percentage and 2.82 GAA. It gets worse in Game 7, where Rask is 1-2, with an .849 SV% and 3.63 GAA.

Why is this? I wouldn't go so far as to say Rask is a choker. He's allowed some soft goals in the playoffs but he doesn't typically have meltdowns in big games.

However, opponents do seem to figure him out as they play against him. After getting 100 or so shots on net, teams seem to know where the gaps will be.

Rask, at 176 pounds, is more prone to having leaks than bigger goalies who have more surface area to protect the net. It makes sense that after 4 or 5 games of trying to find those holes, other teams figure out where they are. For example, in Saturday night's Bruins loss, the Leafs successfully went high on Rask and chased him from the game. And unfortunately, Rask doesn't seem to be as good at figuring his opponents out, as they are at figuring him out.

With Rask in net, if series get past 5 games, the Bruins are 2-4. Rask hasn't won a Game 6 since 2010 against Buffalo.

If he doesn't win tonight's Game 6, and then the following Game 7, it's time for the Bruins to look for a new goalie.