Monday, September 06, 2010


On the List of Reasons the Sox Didn't Make the Playoffs in 2010, Jonathan Papelbon won't be at the top. But he'll still be on the list. Papelbon blew his 7th Save Sunday afternoon. That's a career high, along with his ERA and Losses. He's still an adequate closer, but he's not the unhittable near-guarantee that he once was.

It's a shame that when the Sox actually score some runs, it seems like the bullpen blows it, or Beckett allows 9 hits and can't get out of the 7th inning. And it goes both ways. When the pitching keeps an opponent to 3 runs, the Sox offense can't muster more than 1.

The Sox have 25 games to make up 7.5 in the standings. And the Yankees, with whom the Sox have 6 remaining head-to-head meetings, are an even more unreachable 10 games ahead.

ESPN lists a playoff percentage on their MLB Standings page. It's based on the situation each team finds itself in. For instance, the Yankees currently have a 99.5% chance of making the playoffs. The Red Sox have a 1.1% chance. That sounds larger than it actually is. You're twice as likely to win a game of roulette.

The Sox host the Rays for 3 at Fenway, and anything but a sweep will be a failure. If the Sox sweep, it's a 4.5 game deficit with 22 games left. That actually sounds possible, doesn't it?

Lester opposes Jeff Niemann tonight.

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