Friday, September 17, 2010


This time of year, ESPN's MLB standings include a playoff percentage figure. It's what they figure the chances are that a team will make the postseason, based on how many games behind they are, who their opponents are, and so on. And the Red Sox have a 2.9% chance. That sounds about right, don't you think? It's about 30 to 1.

I'll be the super optimist and say that the Sox might have more of a chance than that. They just have to win. Like win every game.

The Sox have 16 games left. 9 are at home, 7 on the road. 3 against Toronto, 3 against Baltimore, 4 against Chicago, and 6 against the Yankees.

The Red Sox need to win 5 of those 6 against the Yankees. 4-2 would take the Sox from 6 games out to 4 out. Not good enough. 5-1 makes it a 2 game race. And the perfect result (6-0), would have the Sox and Yankees tied.

The Yankees are skidding. They've won 2 of their last 10. And while they play 3 against Baltimore this weekend, they have to play 4 against the Rays after that. It's quite conceivable that it'll be a 3 or 4 game deficit by the time the Sox and Yankees meet. But the Sox have to take care of their own business against Toronto and Baltimore first.

You never know...