Friday, July 13, 2007

MANNY ORTEZ


Manny and Ortiz went a combined 5 for 9 with 5 RBI, 3 runs scored, and 7 total bases. It was a rare sight to see in Fenway in 2007, both Manny and Ortiz carrying the team on their shoulders to a victory.

The bullpen also did their part. Delcarmen threw a perfect 7th, Okajima worked around a pair of hits for a scoreless 8th, and Papelbon tossed a blank 9th inning.

Wakefield once again pitched adequately, but fell off as he went through the lineup a third time. He only threw 89 pitches but was definitely done after 6 innings of work. Timmy allowed a pair of homers to lead off the inning. He allowed 9 hits in total, and thankfully allowed 0 walks.

Tavarez against Shaun Marcum Friday night.

Monday, July 09, 2007

ALL-STAR GRIPES

We all know the Midsummer Classic is tomorrow night. And we all know it's on Fox, thanks to their incessant promoting.

I like the All-Star Game. Out of all the All-Star Games in the big 4 sports, it's probably taken the most seriously by the players and the fans. Of course, Nextel Cup's All-Star race is taken very seriously, but that's because the winner gets over $1 million in prize money.

But I still have gripes about the game.

When I was younger, I used to love the homerun derby. Now it bores me. I don't even watch it anymore. There's not much that's exciting about watching guys hit batting practice homeruns with juiced balls. The steroid scandal in baseball has also hampered the homerun derby. Remember Mark McGwire's display at the '99 HR derby in Fenway? It was amazing. But it was artificial.

Baseball glorifies homeruns. But after what has happened the past few years with Bonds, McGwire, Sosa, Palmeiro, Conseco, etc, I think this glorification has become silly and embarrassing.

I'd like to see a skills competition instead of the derby. Maybe a race around the bases between the fastest players. Perhaps a fastest fastball competition between the hardest throwers. And maybe a nastiest pitch competition exhibiting the best curveballs, sliders, splitters, and other non-fastball pitches. This will never happen, but I'd be more interested in watching a skills competition than the derby.

Plus, the derby is too long. There are too many rounds. There should be two rounds, not three. The top two from the first round go to the finals. Three rounds is boring, and it seems to wear the players out.

I wish the celebrity softball game were changed to whiffle ball. Whiffle ball is the greatest sport ever created.

The whole "This Time it Counts" bologna is simply moronic. Don't even get me started on that.

It's too late, I've started. It's flat out stupid to have the All-Star game determine home field advantage. It either counts, or it's an exhibition game. You can't have a game that counts have a starting lineup determined by fan votes. Just imagine if the lineups for Sox games were determined by the fans.

And the rule that every team has to have an All-Star is dumb, especially since "It Counts."

And how come when the game is at an NL park, there isn't a DH? I think it's stupid. No pitcher will ever bat in an All-Star game unless the away team bats around in the top of the 1st. Mind as well get another hitter in the lineup with the DH.

Nevertheless, I'll take the MLB All-Star game over the Pro Bowl or the NBA All-Star game. The players don't care as much as they used to back in the day, but they still care more than any of the guys in the other 3 sports.

Thursday, July 05, 2007

ONSLAUGHT


The Sox haven't scored 15 runs in a game since August of 2005. As a team, we went 21 for 42 at the plate (that's .500 if you're horrible at math), and walked 10 times. As a team, we slugged .714, and had an OBP of .596. Nine Sox batters had hits, 11 reached base, 8 had multiple hits, 3 had multiple RBIs, and both Crisp and Lowell had 5 RBI nights.

And believe it or not, we could have had more. We left 13 men on base and grounded into 3 double plays. But 15 runs is enough, especially with Beckett on the mound.

The Man of the Game is Coco Crisp who went 2 for 5 with a Grand Slam, an RBI walk, and a double. It was Coco's 2nd career granny, his first in a Red Sox uniform. When he hit it, he essentially ended the game.

Honorable Mentions:
Mike Lowell: 5 for 6, 3 runs, 5 RBI
David Ortiz: 3 for 5, 4 runs
Josh Beckett: 6 IP, 3 ER, 9 K

Just a side note:
Josh Beckett hit Jonny Gomes with a pitch in the top of the 4th inning. In true Devil Rays fashion, Gomes got overly angry and there was nearly an incident. This happens a lot when Tampa Bay plays the Sox. It was a 13-2 game at that point, and Gomes was probably a bit frustrated, but he flipped out far too much. You'd think the D-Rays would be used to losing by now.

Oh, and could people stop calling the D-Rays the "Devil Dogs." As a whiner line caller pointed out this afternoon, that's very insulting to the Marine Corps to compare them to the Devil Rays. (Devil Dog is a nickname for the Marines). Personally, I prefer calling them AAA Tampa Bay, or the Tampa Bay Double A's.

OKAJIMA NAMED TO ALL-STAR TEAM

Red Sox Nation is 3 for 3 in Final Man votes for All-Star games. Johnny Damon in 2002, Jason Varitek in '03, and now Hideki Okajima. Every time a Sox player has been on the ballot for the final spot on the AL roster, he has won.

This honor for Okajima is just even more proof of how valuable he has been. What a great signing that was! Just think, anybody in MLB could have signed him if they wanted him.

TOO CLOSE


What looked to be shaping up to be an easy and potentially Flawless Victory on the 4th of July got a bit too close for my liking. A win's a win, but our 7-5 victory over the D-Rays shouldn't have been nearly as dramatic as it was.

Quite frankly, wins like this one fail to impress me. It's Tampa Bay, for Pedro's sake. Not only is it Tampa Bay, it's Tampa Bay ON A LOSING STREAK. And when you notice a Tampa Bay losing streak, it must be wicked bad.

Edwin Jackson came into the game with a 1-8 record and a 6.88 ERA. Knocking him around and scoring some runs off of him is hardly awe inspiring. It's what we should have done. We did it, and thankfully we didn't just settle for 4 or 5 runs.

Mike Lowell's 2 run homer in the 5th proved to be the difference in the game. It was only the 2nd long ball for the Sox during this homestand. Wakefield gave up a string of hits to begin the 7th, then Lopez was brought in to face lefty Carl Crawford, who promptly hit a 2 run double. Carlos Pena hit a 2 run single, and it was suddenly a 7-5 game. The only hitter Lopez retired was righty Brendan Harris.

Lefties are hitting .273 off Lopez. Righties are hitting .219.

Manny Delcarmen came in to save the day, though. He left Pena stranded in the 7th, and pitched a hitless 8th to give the ball to Papelbon in the 9th.

Man of the Game was Manny Delcarmen. 1.1 IP, 0 R, 0 H, a walk, and 3 strikeouts.

Honorable Mentions:
Tim Wakefield: 6.1 IP, 4 ER (3 scored with Lopez on the mound)
Jonathan Papelbon: IP, 0 R, 0 H, 0 BB, 2 K
Carl Crawford: 3/5, 2 RBI, 2B, Run

The Yankees lost, as did Toronto. The Sox have an 11.5 game lead over the Blue Jays, and a 12 game lead over New York.

Didn't you miss the Devil Rays?

Tuesday, July 03, 2007

81 DOWN, 81 TO GO

The Red Sox are halfway through the regular season. They are 50-31, in first place of the AL East by 10.5 games over Toronto, 11 games over New York, 14 games over Baltimore, and 17 games over Tampa Bay. The Red Sox have the second best record in baseball, slightly behind the Angels and slightly ahead of the Indians. They are 25-14 at Fenway Park, and 25-17 on the road. They are 16-9 against Eastern divisional opponents, but have yet to face the Devil Rays. They're 9-4 against the Central, and 13-12 against the West. They finished Interleague play with a 12-6 record.

The Red Sox are on pace to win 100 games and lose 62. They have scored 400 runs, and are on pace for 800. This is somewhat disappointing. Last season, we scored 820 total runs. In 2005 we scored 910 to lead the AL. In 2004, we had 949 runs. We've managed to win games thanks to our phenomenal pitching. We have a team ERA of 3.71. Last year, our team ERA was 4.83. This season's ERA is even better than our ERA in 2004, which was 4.18.

What's interesting about our lack of offense this season is that our off-season focused on improving our run production. We signed JD Drew and Julio Lugo to bolster the offense. Lugo has been a wretched disappointment, hitting an abysmal .189. Last season, Alex Gonzalez hit .255, which is hardly earth-shattering, but was better than Lugo's effort in 2007.

Jason Varitek, Kevin Youkilis, and Dustin Pedroia have all increased the production of their positions compared to last year. Mike Lowell is also producing well. JD Drew hasn't done as well as hoped, but he hasn't been a complete hole.



A major difference between 2006 and 2007 is the production out of left-field, also known as Manny Ramirez. In his shortened season, Manny knocked in 102 runs. He is on pace to knock in 88 this season. He only had 449 at-bats last year, and is on pace for 576 this year. In other words, 125 more at-bats, and 14 fewer RBI. Manny's average is lower, as well: an unimpressive .288. His OBP is also lower, down to .386 compared to .436 in 2006. His slugging is down as well. He slugged .619 in 2006, but is only slugging .472 this year. He hit 35 homers last year, despite the missed games. He's on pace to hit a mediocre 22 this year.

His strikeouts are slightly lower than normal. In his career, Manny has struck out once every 5.31 plate appearances. This season, it is one strikeout every 6.67 plate appearances. On the surface, this is good. Strikeouts are non-productive outs, and are typically indicative of a poor at-bat. However, coupled with Manny's walk numbers this year, something else becomes apparent.

In his career, Manny has walked once every 7.25 plate appearances. This season, he is walking once every 7.43 plate appearances. This is a negligible difference, especially considering the small sample size of 327 plate appearances. However, it's still more plate appearances in between walks. The lower strikeouts, and the fewer walks, means his at-bats are shorter. His lower average means that he isn't getting more hits with these shorter at-bats. So he's swinging early, and getting outs.

Manny is seeing 3.83 pitches per plate appearance. Last year, he saw 4.16. The 3.83 pitches per plate appearance is a career low for Manny since he became a full-time player. Manny isn't working the count. He isn't waiting for his pitch. It isn't that he's falling behind, it's just that he isn't letting himself get ahead. Manny is one of the smartest hitters I've ever seen. He works pitchers, he sets them up, gets his pitch, and pounces. This season, it isn't that there is much wrong with his swing. He's just swinging at incorrect pitches. Maybe, he'll be a tad bit more patient in the 2nd half of the season. If his production returns to the lineup, the entire offense will benefit dramatically. If he's hitting like normal, we'll score 20 to 30 more runs in the 2nd half of the season than we did in the first (if everything else stays the same, of course).



David Ortiz is also not producing what we're used to seeing from him. He's been very good this year. His OBP and average are actually higher than last year's totals. But his slugging is down. Last season, he hit 54 homers. He's on pace for 26 this year. While his homers have been cut in half, his doubles have doubled. He's on pace for 54 doubles. He had 29 last year. Considering his lack of homerun power, his RBIs aren't down that much. He's on pace for 98 RBI, which is good considering the lack of leadoff production we've had.

If David and Manny get to hitting the way we're used to seeing them hit, our offense will be very productive.

Julio Lugo is on pace to have one of the strangest statistical seasons I've seen. He's hitting .189 with a .260 OBP, and slugging .281. He's also on pace to steal 40 bases, and knock in 68 RBI. But he's only on pace to score 66 runs, and THAT is the major problem. He can steal a base every time he gets on, but he hasn't gotten on at all. Actually, he's stolen a base once for every 4 times he's reached base safely. Even before his 0 for 30 stretch, he was a disappointment at the plate. He's also got 9 errors in the field, which doesn't help much. That's not an obscene amount of errors, but we've seen short-stops like Gonzalez, Reese, and Sanchez struggle offensively, but still play great defense. Lugo is not contributing offensively or defensively.

Right now, the short-term solution is to play Cora some more. I wouldn't be shocked if we were trying to acquire another middle infielder in the trade market. The Red Sox have the lowest leadoff production in baseball.

Crisp and Drew have been less than stellar, and Wily Mo has struck out 40 times in 107 at-bats. But we've got Jacoby Ellsbury and David Murphy down I-95.

Kevin Youkilis and Mike Lowell have been the offensive leaders on the team. Youk leads the team in hitting, Lowell and Youk are tied for 2nd on the team in slugging, and Lowell leads the team in RBI, and is the only Sox hitter on pace for more than 100 RBI.

If the Red Sox can somehow generate 450 to 470 runs in the 2nd half of the season, they will finish with the best record in baseball, so long as the pitching holds up.

Our pitching has been sensational. Josh Beckett is on pace to win 22 games. Daisuke has settled down and now sports a 3.80 ERA and a 9-5 record. Tavarez has been very solid for a #5 pitcher, on pace for 170 innings with a 4.39 ERA. As of late, he has been much better.

Schilling has been mediocre on the whole, with spots of brilliance and spots of dullness. He can bitch and moan about people who don't "play the game" but he needs to sit down, shut up, stay on the DL, and return if AND ONLY IF he can help this team win more than a guy like Tavarez is helping us win. Up to now, he hasn't really done that consistently enough.

Kason Gabbard has filled in adequately as a spot starter, and Jon Lester should be returning, but I really think that the Sox could use another front line starter. If we get a good #3 pitcher, we'll have a great post-season rotation.

The back end of the bullpen is great. Papelbon and Okajima are the best finishing combination we've had on the team in a long time. Before them, Donnelly is having a solid season. Lopez has been a mediocre reliever. Nothing special, nothing horrible. Snyder has been a good middle reliever. Apart from these guys, however, the bullpen is lacking. Pineiro and his 5.04 ERA are essentially useless in any close fought game. JC Romero has already earned his walking papers. Mike Timlin looks healthy, but the 41 year old cannot pitch two days in a row, cannot pitch to more than a few batters, and really doesn't look sharp anymore.

The Sox bullpen might get some help when and if Lester is ready to pitch. This will shift Tavarez in there. Another form of relief for the relief will be if we use Gabbard and Bucholz late in the season out of the bullpen. We do need some additional bullpen depth for the playoffs, particularly with looming question marks over Wakefield and Schilling.

All in all, it's been a very good season thus far. However, we were 50-31 at this point last season, only to go 36-45 to finish the season, missing the playoffs. This team is very good, but is still very vulnerable. We haven't locked up the division, but it is in our hands. We might drop it, if we aren't careful. More importantly, this team still needs work before it will be good enough to make a strong playoff run. That work might come from Pawtucket, it might come through trades, it might come from within. But it has to come, or yet another 50-31 start will be meaningless.

SPEEDY RECOVERY


After dropping two straight to the lowly Rangers, the Red Sox ended their 4 game series with a 7-3 victory.

The game was highlighted by the speed of Jacoby Ellsbury. He reached on an infield single in the 2nd and came around to score. He stole a base in the 4th, distracting the pitcher beforehand, and scored from 2nd on a Wild Pitch.

But other performances were also noteworthy. Kason Gabbard pitched great with the exception of a few pitches in which he allowed a walk, a single, and a 3 run homer. The single was the first hit of the game for the Rangers, coming in the 5th inning.

Kason obviously still needs some more innings in AAA before he can be relied upon as a full-time starter for us. However, he has shown some flashes of good pitching which not only demonstrate his value as a prospect, but his potential immediate value as a reliever in the late season and post-season. I know it's a strange time to be theorizing like this, but I've always felt that the best relievers were starters who didn't have to hold anything back and could throw their entire arsenal in an inning or two. Guys like Kason could prove valuable in our shaky midsection of the bullpen.

Eric Hinske and the bottom third of the lineup spearheaded the offensive effort. Varitek, Hinske, and Ellsbury went a combined 6 for 10 with four runs, 3 RBI, 2 walks, and pretty much all of our offense.

The Sox had difficulty in maximizing their offensive opportunities. They left 10 runners on base, five of whom were in scoring position. Seven runs is good offensive production, but the recent lack of offense has been due mostly to an inability to deliver big hits with runners in scoring position, as well as to have big offensive innings. But the 7 runs was good enough for a win, so let's not dwell on negativity too much.

The Man of the Game is Eric Hinske. He went 2 for 4 with a triple, and 3 RBI.

Honorable Mentions:
Kason Gabbard: 5.2 IP, 3 ER
Jacoby Ellsbury: 2/2, 2 runs, 2 BB, SB
Manny Ramirez: 2/4, RBI, Run, 2B, BB

Monday, June 25, 2007

BURLY ADDITION TO ROTATION?


The White Sox are struggling. The rumors of a fire sale are starting to rumble. Some names bandied about include the likes of Jermaine Dye, who somehow always seems to find himself part of trade rumors.

The name Sox fans and Sox brass are interested in is Mark Buehrle. The 28 year old lefty has found himself in the center of trade talks before, but this time it might be serious. Chicago is 4th place in the cutthroat AL Central, 13.5 games out. They're 9th in the AL Wild Card, 12.5 games behind Cleveland. This is the last year of Buehrle's contract with the White Sox. Everything seems perfect for a deal.

The Red Sox have confirmed that they are interested in Buehrle. Among other teams rumored to be making inquiries are Atlanta, the Mets, and the Yankees.

Word on the street is that the acquisition of Buehrle would be a mere rental. Mark's a Missouri man and a big Cardinals fan. It's believed that he is destined to wind up in St. Louis after the '07 season.

However, if it isn't a rental, and Buehrle is willing to sign a contract, he could become a very good acquisition to whatever team gets him. The Red Sox should do all they can to get the White Sox to allow contractual negotiations and attempt to make a deal.

Chicago wants young prospects, of course. Unlike the very hopeful sports radio trade talkers, they will not trade Buehrle for Wily Mo Pena, Coco Crisp "and some single A prawspect." It's likely that we'd have to give up guys like Clay Bucholz and Jacoby Ellsbury. These two guys are the most highly touted prospects in our organization, and some might fear losing them to be mortgaging the future. Michael Bowden and Jed Lowrie are also names that have been overheard.

To be honest, I wouldn't mind giving up Bucholz and Ellsbury for Beuhrle, so long as we already had a contract in place for him for about 5 more seasons. Bucholz is excelling at AA Portland, but Beuhrle is already a proven commodity. Ellsbury had an outstanding AA stint hitting .452, and is doing well at AAA Pawtucket. However, we would still have Brandon Moss, who is hitting .296 in AAA and is almost the exact same age as Ellsbury (Moss is 5 days younger). Moss doesn't have Ellsbury's speed on the basepaths, but Moss has some power whereas Ellsbury has yet to hit a homer in Pawtucket or Portland this year.

I think one of the most untouchable prospects we have is Jed Lowrie. Jed is the 23 year old short-stop in AA Portland. He's hitting .305. More importantly, he has a .416 OBP and a very nice .901 OPS. With Julio Lugo struggling to hit his own weight (which is really sad because he's listed at 165 pounds), and the Sox still sending checks to Edgar Renteria, I think it's important to hold onto a young short-stop like Lowrie. Plus, his name is Jed. With a name like that, you KNOW he's going to make it in The Show.

Back to Beuhrle. He isn't an Ace by any stretch of the imagination. However, he's a solid front line starter that would be great in the #3 slot in our rotation. He's averaged 6.8 innings per start since he became a full-time starter in 2001. He's a guy who can give you 230 good innings a year. His career ERA of 3.80 isn't earth shattering, but it's still good. He's only 28 and could be part of a very impressive 1-2-3 rotation of Beckett, Matsuzaka, and himself for years to come.

Curt Schilling's tired arm, Wakefield's inconsistency, and Tavarez's inability to go very deep into games are all reasons why we should get another pitcher. Lester has the potential to come in contribute, but he's still AAA pitcher, in my opinion, at least until next year.

The addition of Beuhrle would increase the options we have with our rotation. We could move Tavarez to the pen without bringing up Lester. We could endure Schilling being on the DL, WITH Tavarez in the pen, and Lester in the rotation. We could even move Wakefield into the bullpen, along with Tavarez.

We've had some of the best starting pitching in baseball thus far this season, but it needs to be better for us to excel in the playoffs. We can't be throwing Tavarez out there to pitch 5 innings in a playoff game. Nor can we have Schilling go unless he's 100%.

I really hope we get Beuhrle, but only if it doesn't cost us too much in terms of prospects, and only if we can extend his contract so he pitches for us in 2008 and beyond.

BECKETT, THE BEST OF WHAT SOX DO BEST


The Red Sox went into San Diego as one of the two best teams in the American League. San Diego welcomed Boston as one of the best teams in the National League. Sunday afternoon's matchup was the pinnacle of the series. Josh Beckett came in at 10-1, and Jake Peavy came in at 9-1. It was a potential preview of the All-Star Game starters.

And the Red Sox won. They took 2 out of 3 and won the rubber game 4-2. They made Peavy work and forced him out after 5 innings with 111 pitches. We got 9 hits off of him, but more importantly, we got five of those hits in the 3rd. They were all singles, but when you get five hits in an inning, you're probably going to score.

Josh Beckett was great. Only one walk and 8 strikeouts in 8 innings of work. He was a bit shaky in the 5th, but apart from that he was great. Some Yankee fan I was talking to the other day said that "Josh Beckett didn't deserve to be 10-1." But you see games like this one, and you can see why he is 11-1.

The Man of the Game for Sunday's 4-2 win is Josh Beckett. He went 8 innings, allowing 6 hits, 1 walk, and striking out 8. He outpitched Jake Peavy for his 11th win of the season, which leads the majors.

Honorable Mentions go to:
Jonathan Papelbon: IP, 0 R, 0 H, 0 BB, 2 K
Jason Varitek: 2/4, RBI, 3B, HR, Run
Alex Cora: 2/3, BB

Up to Seattle to face yet another good team on this road trip.