Was Daisuke Matsuzaka's first start of the '09 campaign good or bad? I really have no idea. He gave up 3 homeruns, and only pitched 5.1 innings. But 4 earned runs isn't horrible. It's not very good for 16 outs of work, but it did give the Sox a chance to win. Which they almost did.
It seems like against the Rays, the Sox tend to hit the ball hard, but right at someone. And when Tampa Bay's at-bat, they get these soft hits, and eventually the guy comes around to score. But I think they're more of an opportunistic team. We also have some big holes in the lineup.
Jason Varitek hasn't been one of those holes. His solo shot dramatically increased the Sox' chances of winning. Jed Lowrie is a hole, though. JD Drew was also a hole, though he hit a ball hard. Same story for Pedroia.
The Sox left 5 men in scoring position, 3 by Lowrie, 2 by Drew.
Hideki "CitiGroup" Okajima once again had to be bailed out by Justin "The TARP" Masterson. What a bizarre inning from Okajima. Starts off with 2 strikeouts, then walks 2, falls behind 3-0, and gives up a hit. He nearly blew the game, all with 2 outs.
Razor Ramon Ramirez looked good, getting 5 straight outs. He's eliminated all 8 men he's faced in a Red Sox uniform.
I'm going to be blunt here, the Sox need to fuck with the Rays' hitters. Did you notice how Dustin Pedroia got knocked on his ass by Matt Garza this afternoon? Did you notice how often Garza pitched inside, then went outside? The Sox used to do it back in the Pedro Martinez epoch, but in the last two years, they haven't pitched hard and inside. Daisuke might be able to challenge hitters over the plate if he makes them duck to avoid the pitch before.
I'm not saying the Sox should intentionally bean Evan Longoria. But he and all the other Rays have turned the batting box into a country club. Next time these teams face, that MUST change.
The Man of the Game is Matt Garza, who pitched around trouble in the 1st, then cruised through 7 innings of work, allowing 1 run, and striking out 5.
Last night's 7-2 loss to the Rays reminded me so much of 2008, and of 2007 as well. Jon Lester throwing dozens of pitches to get a single out. The Sox making inexcusable defensive mistakes against the Rays, a poor bullpen performance that turned a manageable deficit into a big lead for the opponent, and an inconsistent offense that couldn't get the big hit.
Is Jason Varitek recovering from cancer or something? Why are Red Sox fans treating his 0 for 4 "with some good swings in there" as some sort of accomplishment. I'm sorry, but the bullshit he pulled this offseason means no-holds-barred criticism of Captain LOB. He went 0 for 4. Yeah, he looks better this year than he did last year. But he had a good start to the 2008 season, didn't he? If he looks this good in mid-May, I'll give him credit for being a Major League hitter again. Until then, 0 for 4 is 0 for 4 is 0 for 4.
Oh, and Bob Davidson, the home plate umpire, SUCKED. I like big strike zones, but calling the outside strike as he was is ridiculous. He was calling pitches strikes that Zdeno Chara couldn't reach with a hockey stick. But Varitek, Lester, and the Sox should have adjusted and tried to hit the outside corner a bit more.
The Man of the Game is Scott Kazmir. He took full advantage of the Buick sized strike zone and went 6 innings, bending but not breaking.
The Bitch-Goat. In case you don't know, the Bitch-Goat (BG) is distributed after every loss based on who I think deserves the blame for the defeat.
Jon Lester gets 0.6 of a Bitch-Goat point. He struggled through 5, finally cracking in the 5th. Jed Lowrie and Mike Lowell each get 0.1 for their 0 for 3 nights. Rocco Baldelli gets 0.2 for leaving 4 men on base. Hopefully, he won't be hitting 5th again for awhile.
Daisuke vs. Garza next, which is in the 3rd as I finish this post.
Bad news for the AL East. Bad news for the AL. Bad news for everyone outside of Boston really. Josh Beckett is on his game. 7 innings, 10 strikeouts, 2 hits. The 3 walks were unfortunate, but he pitched around them brilliantly.
The only not-so-bright spot for the Sox this afternoon was the disappointing Hideki Okajimna outing. HBP, walk, strikeout, pulled. After a double steal and a single, Hideki's charged with 2 earned runs (inherited runner karma catching up to him?), and a 5-1 cruise control goes to a 5-3 nail-biter.
Well, it was a nail-biter in the 8th, but Masterson got out of it. Then was there any doubt with Papelbon in the 9th? 15 pitches, 2 strikeouts, game over.
Pedroia started where he left off. It amazes me how many people outside of Boston consider his 2008 season to be a fluke. He's been hitting and hitting well for 1.9 seasons now. Youkilis also looked good, going 2 for 4 with a double and a run.
Varitek's homerun was bigger than just the run. After wearing down Shields, the Sox failed to deliver the knockout punch until Tek hit that shot to right. It's good to get him going on the right foot, and even though I doubt he'll hit many more of them, this particular homer was pivotal.
I was wrong up above, there was another not-so-bright spot apart from Okajima. Jacoby Ellsbury does not belong in the leadoff spot. He was 0 for 4. His speed is irrelevant if he doesn't get on base. I'd prefer to see him hitting 8th or 9th, instead of giving Pedroia 0 on and 1 out all the time.
I'm brining back the Man of the Game (MOTG) this season after a 1 year hiatus from the site. I'm also bringing back the Bitch-Goat (BG) when the Sox lose, but that's for another day and not today.
This afternoon's Man of the Game:
Josh Beckett. 7 innings, 2 hits, 1 run, 10 strikeouts, win #49 for Beckett in a Red Sox uniform.
Why did this team become likeable? Last year, they were the George Mason's of the baseball world, the underdogs who made it all the way to the World Series, the Davids who beat the Goliath Red Sox and Jabba the Hut Yankees.
I've always hated the Rays. Ever since Gerald Williams attacked Pedro Martinez and Brian Daubach kidney punched him. Ever since Trot Nixon chucked his bat at the pitcher's mound. Ever since the city of St. Petersburg was given a team.
The Rays might be good on the field, but their hometown is still a colony of the Yankees' Evil Empire. The Yanks have had spring training there for decades. So Major League Baseball, taking a cue from the NHL, decides to put a team there. Smart move.
Last year, a friend of mine who goes to the University of Tampa got ALCS Game 7 tickets at FACE FUCKING VALUE, $40!!!!!!!! Good fans down there in St. Pete.
And what's with the fucking name? Devil Rays wasn't bad. But just Rays? Ray is a person's name. Rays are multiple people with that first name. Ray Charles, Ray Allen, Ray Jay Johnson, Ray LaMontagne, Rachel Ray, Raymond Stantz (Ghostbusters), Ray Romano, X-Ray, Gamma Ray, Cosmic Ray, Ray's Pizza, Famous Ray's Pizza.
Their mascot should be Rae Carruth.
The national sports media portrayed them as a plucky bunch of scrappers. But they were a gang of cocky little twerps. I never thought I'd be so thrilled to see a Philadelphia team win a championship.
There's just no reason for me to like, or even respect this team from Tampa Bay. I hope they lose 100 games again and get contracted.
The Bruins beat the Rangers 1-0 Saturday night, securing the top seeding in the Eastern Conference (I hate people saying "Eastern Conference Champions. The B's have 3 playoff series to win before they can wear that crown).
Quick thoughts on the game:
Sean Avery is a twat. That's the best word to describe him. And the NHL is stupid. He gets suspended 6 games for a lewd joke, but only gets 2 minutes for hitting Tim Thomas with the blade of his stick after the whistle? That was bullshit. Thomas retaliated and got a matching minor. That was bullshittier.
Look how much Avery turtles as he waits for his teammates to defend him. He's a tough guy cheap-shotter that turns into a helpless old woman when threatened.
I honestly don't care what Avery does or says off the ice. His on-ice provoke-then-hide behavior is what the NHL needs to legislate. The following penalties could have/should have been called on Avery:
Hitting after the whistle Roughing Unsportsmanlike conduct High sticking Instigator
An 2 minute instigator along with his roughing call would have been appropriate, along with Thomas given 2 minutes for retaliation.
Then again, the refs may not have seen it. But the NHL's offices certainly have, and Avery should get some sort of punishment for pulling this kind of crap. Again, 6 games for a joke, what's the penalty for actually doing something wrong on the ice?
Anyway, the Bruins are the #1 seed, and why is that so awesome?
#1: You get to play the worst seeded team in every round. 8th seed in the opening round, and if you move on, and let's say the 7th seed upsets their opponent, you get #7 in the second round.
#2: Home ice advantage. The Bruins are 28-6-6 at The Garden. The other top teams in the East also have outstanding home records (Washington is 29-9-3, New Jersey is 27-11-1), so it's even nicer to get home ice advantage against them.
#3: You don't have to face BOTH the 2nd and 3rd seeds. The 2 and 3 teams in the East (Washington and New Jersey) are the teams to fear in the Conference. But being the top seed, the Bruins won't have to go through both of them. They'll probably have to go through one of them, but not both. The B's can't face either until the Eastern Conference finals, and by then, at least one of them will have to have been knocked out. This is the best part of being #1.
The Bruins have 4 games to stay fresh but rested, get Manny Fernandez some playing time, and get into playoff shape. Right now, the Panthers and Rangers are in a dead heat for the 8th playoff spot. I'd rather play Florida, but both teams are good, and whoever finishes 8th, by definition, will be a hot team.
Bruins' remaining schedule: Tue 4/7 @ Ottawa Thu 4/9 vs. Montreal Sat 4/11 @ Buffalo Sun 4/12 @ NY Islanders
The most important part of the team, and the part of the team that will either make or break the Red Sox' playoff and World Series aspirations.
Last year, Josh Beckett was hampered by injuries, and only went 12-10 with a 4.03 ERA. In the postseason, he registered an 8.79 ERA in 3 starts, which was one of the biggest reasons the Sox lost to the Rays in the ALCS.
This year, the word is that he'll be healthier out of the gate. He does have a tendency to accumulate blisters, and like every pitcher, his health is always going to be a question mark for the future.
The question is, was 2007 a fluke? His career is full of ups and downs. He was good in '03, then mediocre in '04, then great in '05, horrible in '06, excellent in '07, below average in '08. Is this a trend with him, or is it due to other factors?
I think Beckett will be good this year, as good as he was two years ago. He'll win 18 to 20 games, with an ERA between 3.15 and 3.50, and if the Sox get into the playoffs, he'll be the most feared by the opponents.
Jon Lester emerged as a quality pitcher last season. He was the Ace of the staff, and one of the few bright spots of a somewhat ugly season. 16-6 with a 3.21 ERA. He also cut down on the number of pitches it took him to get outs, which helped him go deep into games. But he needs to continue to progress along these lines. Then again, the bullpen is more improved this year, and can maintain a slim lead for 3 innings if need be.
Lester struggled a bit in the series with Tampa Bay, but pitched 14 scoreless innings against the Angels. He was also 3-0 with a 0.90 ERA against the Rays, so go figure.
Lester's finally gotten his strength back, and even though I think his ERA will come down to earth a little bit, as far as #2 pitchers go, he's one of the best in baseball. 17 wins, 3.60 ERA.
Daisuke Matsuzaka's success doesn't make sense. At least not according to conventional wisdom. He walks batters, gives up hits, throw 17.3 pitches per inning, and finished 4th in Cy Young voting, deservedly so. He won 18 games with a 2.90 ERA by NOT challenging hitters. It doesn't make sense.
He does have a significant weakness. He doesn't last long. By some miracle, he was 5-1 in games he only went 5 innings. In 29 starts, he had 0 complete games, two 8 inning starts, nine starts of 7+ innings, and 16 starts of 6+ innings. 13 of his starts were shorter than 6 innings.
And I don't want that to change. When he's economical with pitches, he gets hit, and hit hard. When he throws lots of pitches, he's very good. He bends but doesn't break. The 18 wins last year were an anomoly, especially as mediocre as the Sox bullpen was. However, he should be around 15 or 16 wins, with a low ERA, and no more than 170 innings pitched. Not bad for a #3.
Tim Wakefield... ugh.
I'm sorry to everyone who loves Tim Wakefield, but he's done. At least as a starter. He was 10-11 with a 4.13 ERA last year. Against New York and Tampa Bay, he was 1-3 with a 5.35 ERA, and that's not counting his 2.2 inning, 5 earned run start against the Rays in the LCS (it's a 6.13 ERA counting that start).
He turns 43 in August, and yes, there is wear and tear on a knuckleballer's arm. I don't see him in the rotation once Smoltz is ready.
Now we get to the part of the rotation loaded with question marks, but also loaded with potential answers.
Right now, Brad Penny is the #5 starter. He was the Opening Day starter for the Dodgers last year, but he's coming off shoulder trouble. He's throwing 96 now, though, and if he can perform for 5 solid innings every 5th day, then his acquisition can be considered a success.
He has nothing but upside. He was 16-4 with a 3.03 ERA in 2007. He's only 30, and if he can find that form again, the Red Sox become the most terrifying team to face in October.
John Smoltz will hopefully replace Wakefield in the rotation by June. He's still in the bullpen session stage, and he'll be 42 by the time he returns (if he returns), so I wouldn't count on him too much. From 2005 to 2007, he was very good with the Braves. BUT, pitchers don't recover quikly from injury once they hit the Big 4-0. I'm not optimistic about Smoltz at all, and will be shocked if he makes more than 10 starts.
Last year Clay Buchholz was a disappointment. But when everyone in town expects no-hitters night after night, it's hard not to be a disappointment. He had an outstanding spring, but after last season's struggles (2-9, 6.75 ERA), he'll still start the season in AAA Pawtucket.
Expect Buchholz to be up in Boston before the All-Star Game. I'm trying not to expect much from him. He has talent, but more important than that for a pitcher is confidence. His body language changes from pitch-to-pitch. He looks like prey on the mound, not a predator.
Michael Bowden is another name you'll probably see with Boston in the summer, especially once Wakefield gets shipped to the pen. He made one spot start last year and was solid. 5 innings, 2 runs, 7 hits. The 22 year old righty is 6' 3" and 215 pounds, and had a 2.62 combined ERA in Pawtucket and AA Portland last year. For me, he's passed Buchholz on the Sox' depth chart.
Justin Masterson found himself a nice niche last year, out in the bullpen. He quickly became the Sox' most reliable set-up man. But with new faces out in the pen, the Sox extended the 24 year old to be a starter.
As a starter, Masterson was 4-3 in 9 starts, with a 3.67 ERA and a 1.241 WHIP. Those are promising numbers for a 24 year old. However, he walks too many batters (27 walks in his starts, in 54 innings, or one every other inning), and struggled the 2nd time through a lineup. He rarely made it through for a 3rd time. He can be used as a starter, but I think in 2009, his best use will be as a reliever, just in case Okajima struggles, or there are injuries. At the same time, he has good Major League experience, and could wind up starting if Penny disappoints, Smoltz's recovery stalls, Wakefield stinks, a starter gets hurt, Buchholz remains inconsistent, et cetera.
The rotation will determine the fate of this team. The offense isn't good enough to carry the Sox into the playoffs. And a good bullpen is worthless if the starters that precede it aren't quality. The Sox might be holding three Aces with Beckett, Lester, and Daisuke. Then again, all three of those have the potential to be busts. Then there are the wildcards, an assortment of old "scrap-heapers" and young prospects.
I think this rotation will be among the best in baseball, and will propel the Sox to a 100 win season.
Every morning I workout and listen to Dennis and Callahan on WEEI. It's good motivation. I've got a loud, old-school exercise bike, and listening to Belichick/Pioli/Cassel conspiracy theories makes me pedal the bike faster and faster, trying to spin the wheel louder and louder to drown out the idiocy of people who think Darth Belichick would ever do anyone a favor.
Now, if you think Belichick made a mistake in the Cassel deal, that's fair. That makes sense. It's the conspiracy theorists who should have their feeble and useless brains removed from their skulls, and fed to pigs.
Here's the difference between the Jay Cutler deal and the Matt Cassel deal:
1. Timing: The Cassel deal had to get done quickly. There couldn't be any waiting for the Buccaneers and Broncos to get together for a threeway deal. The Patriots had no cap room. None. Zero. Zilch. You can't sign people if you're already at the cap. Remember, this Cutler to Chicago deal has been in the works in one way or another for weeks.
2. Contracts: Matt Cassel has one year under contract, and that year costs $14.6 million. In other words, the Chiefs have one season with him, and it will cost them a pretty good chunk of change. If Cassel does well, he's not going to take a paycut in 2010. He'll get the same, or more, and the Chiefs will have to bid with other teams. If he performs poorly, the Chiefs waste $14.6M.
Cutler, on the other hand, has 3 years remaining on his deal. Each year is worth about $12 million. So for the Bears, if Cutler performs, they get him for 3 seasons. If he sucks, they cut him or trade him.
3. Different Players: Believe it or not, Matt Cassel is not Jay Cutler. Cassel is actually older than Cutler. Cassel has thrown 555 NFL passes, Cutler has thrown 1,220. Cassel might be better than Cutler, but Cutler is more proven. Cutler's QB rating is 87.1. Cassel's is 88.2. In 2008, Cutler was throwing to Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal. Cassel was throwing to Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Neither QB has any significant playoff experience.
The key difference is experience. Cutler has twice as much. With Cassel, there are bigger question marks. He struggled throwing the deep ball, even with Moss. He struggled in the red zone. Without Wes Welker catching 111 passes in 14 games (7.9 per game), is Cassel even as good as Cutler? Time will tell.
Conclusion: There is less risk for the Bears in the Cutler deal. They get 3 years under contract, and a player with more experience and less unknowns. There was also plenty of time for the deal to get made. Remember, this drama has spanned weeks.
At the same time, the difference in value between the Patriots' deal, and the Bears' deal is staggering. Think how happy Chiefs fans must be, seeing how cheaply they got Cassel.
The Patriots could have shopped around a bit more aggressively, and at the very least driven the price up. They could have gotten the Chiefs to throw in a 3rd rounder, or at least a 4th rounder.
But again, the problem was the lack of buyers. Plenty of teams want QBs, but not all of them were interested in Cassel. And then there were teams that wanted Cassel, but already had QBs. So any deal with them would have to involve three teams.
Franchising Cassel cost the Pats value in the trade. Had they been supergeniuses and extended his contract before the season (hindsight is great, isn't it?), they could have traded him for anything they wanted to, or even held on to him as a backup. That was the best-case scenario move. But it would have required such foresight and intuition, that it's hard to criticize the Patriots for not doing it.
