BIG XII FOOTBALL PREVIEW

The Big XII provided the most controversy, and possibly the most excitement in college football last year. And once again, the two big teams in the Big XII - Texas and Oklahoma - will be contenders, with Texas being a heavy favorite to win the National Championship.

1. TEXAS LONGHORNS
The Longhorns will win the Big XII South without tie-breakers, then the Big XII title game in Arlongton, and then the National Championship in Pasadena. Colt McCoy finished 2nd in Heisman voting, in case anyone forgot. And Texas didn't lose much talent. They beat Oklahoma last year, and beat Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl. They're loaded, and they're going all the way, unfortunately. But hey, at least they're not USC or fucking Florida.

However, they might be tested in the middle of the season, with back-to-back trips to Missouri, and Oklahoma State. Those aren't easy places for anyone to win in.

Key games:
10/17 vs. Oklahoma (Dallas, TX)
10/24 @ Missouri
10/31 @ Oklahoma State

Prediction:
13-1, Big XII Champs, BCS Champs



2. OKLAHOMA SOONERS
The Sooners have the reigning Heisman winner, but lost 4/5 of their offensive line, which gave Sam Bradford the time to make so many big plays. The Sooners also lost talent in their receiving corps. OU is great at reloading, and if they were in just about any other conference, they'd contend for a conference title. But they'll lose the Red River Shootout in October, and perhaps Bedlam against Oklahoma State in November.

I do think they'll have the talent and ability to figure out how to impress people, and earn a BCS berth. But maybe it would be better to settle for an easier win in the Cotton Bowl. The Sooners haven't won a bowl game since 2005, and haven't taken home a BCS Bowl trophy since 2002.

Key games:
9/5 vs. Brigham Young (Arlington, TX)
10/3 @ Miami
10/17 vs. Texas (Dallas, TX)
11/7 @ Nebraska
11/28 vs. Oklahoma State

Prediction:
11-2, Fiesta Bowl loss



3. OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS
Oklahoma State replaces Texas Tech in the spoiler role for the Big XII South. Last year, how Texas and OU fared against Tech turned out to be much more important than how they did against each other. The same could turn out to be true about Oklahoma State in '09.

Similar to Texas Tech, OSU has an insane offense, and a very susceptible defense. They return 8 starters to an offensive unit that averaged nearly 500 yards a game. But on defense, they struggle to pressure QBs, and their coverage units are frequently scorched. That combination doesn't bode well in a conference with Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford.

Key games:
9/5 vs. Georgia
10/31 vs. Texas
11/28 @ Oklahoma

Prediction:
10-3, Cotton Bowl Champs



4. NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS
The Blackshirts are back. Nebraska's defense is capable of propelling them to the Big XII title game. They also have a very fortunate schedule. Out of conference, apart from a trip to Blacksburg to play VA-Tech, the Cornhuskers host Florida Atlantic, Arkansas State, and Louisiana-Lafayette. They also don't have to play either Texas or Oklahoma State. And their matchup against Oklahoma is in Lincoln.

Nebraska has little offensive firepower, but they won't really need it to win the Big XII North.

Key games:
9/19 @ Virginia Tech
10/8 @ Missouri
11/7 Oklahoma
11/14 @ Kansas

Prediction:
10-4, Big XII North Champs, Holiday Bowl Champs



And the rest, in alphabetical order...

BAYLOR BEARS
Baylor is no longer a guaranteed win for opponents in the Big XII. QB Robert Griffin threw for 2,000+ yards and 28 TDs in his freshman year, along with 843 yards on the ground and only 3 INTs. The Bears won't contend for the Big XII South, and will be fortunate to finish the season bowl eligible, but thanks to Texas A&M, they're no longer the worst Big XII team in Texas. And watch out for this squad to surprise a Big XII powerhouse with a scare game, as most of the big teams have to come down to Waco to face Baylor.

Key games:
9/19 vs. UConn
10/10 @ Oklahoma
10/24 vs. Oklahoma State
10/31 vs. Nebraska
11/14 vs. Texas



COLORADO BUFFALOES
Where are you Kordell Stewart? Boulder turns its lonely eyes to you.

CU sucks at just about everything that matters. There are question marks at QB, a below average offensive line returns 4 starters, which is probably a bad thing, and a there's a defensive line that couldn't put pressure on a mosquito. The Buffaloes will be the Big XII North whipping boys, except when they play Iowa State.

Key games:
10/1 @ West Virginia
10/10 @ Texas
11/19 @ Oklahoma State
11/27 vs. Nebraska



IOWA STATE CYCLONES
New coach Paul Rhodes inherits a program that was 2-10, and 0-8 in conference play. This is another team that sucks on toast, both offensively and defensively. They need to make Seneca Wallace get some plastic surgery, come back as Cayuga Waltrip, and play QB.

Key games (one's they might win):
9/3 vs. North Dakota State
9/26 vs. Army
11/14 vs. Colorado

KANSAS JAYHAWKS
Just one or two good years and people think KU has an amazing program. I'm still not sold on anything in Kansas that isn't basketball. But they do have a comical out of conference schedule (Northern Colorado, @ UTEP, Duke, Southern Miss), so contending for a Big XII North title, and a longshot at the BCS isn't totally out of the question.

QB Todd Reesing is solid, and has a pair of 1,000+ yard receivers to throw to. But there are weaknesses, as well as dates with Oklahoma and Texas on the schedule.

Key games:
10/24 vs. Oklahoma
11/14 vs. Nebraska
11/21 @ Texas



KANSAS STATE WILDCATS
There are some solid players in Manhattan. But the QB spot is still up for grabs. Then again, the Wildcats have some cupcake games to figure that out before they play their first real team on October 10th. K-State could surprise people, either with a big upset win, or bowl eligibility.

Key games:
10/31 @ Oklahoma
11/7 vs. Kansas
11/21 @ Nebraska



MISSOURI TIGERS
No Chase Daniel, and the Tigers are left struggling. Mizzou also lost most of its other skill players, as well as 7 defensive starters. Unlike the powers in the Big XII, teams like Missouri need a few years to recover from such losses. The Tigers might make some noise in the Big XII North, and could help DETERMINE who goes to the conference title game, but they won't COMPETE for the divisional title.

Key games:
10/8 vs. Nebraska
10/17 @ Oklahoma State
10/24 vs. Texas
11/14 @ Kansas State
11/28 vs. Kansas (Kansas City, MO)



TEXAS A&M AGGIES
The Aggies might have a decent passing game, which they'll need because they'll be behind most of the time. They have NO running game, which is sacrilegious in the Big XII. They were 114th in the country last year with 88.5 rushing yards per game. Both their offensive and defensive lines are consistently pushed back, and their only conference wins in '08 came against Colorado and Iowa State.

The Aggies might just be the worst team in Texas.

Key games (winnable ones):
9/5 vs. New Mexico
9/19 vs. Utah State
10/31 vs. Iowa State
11/7 @ Colorado



TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS
No Harrel, no Crabtree, but somehow Texas Tech will average 500 passing yards and 30 points a game once more. The unsung hero of TTU's 2008 campaign was Brandon Williams, who's also gone. Tech will always have a prolific offense, but last year their defense was almost as fierce, especially in the pass-rushing area, because of guys like Williams. Tech will provide audiences with some thrilling 49-42 games. Good for us fans, bad for Tech.

Key games:
9/19 @ Texas
10/17 @ Nebraska
10/31 vs. Kansas
11/14 @ Oklahoma State
11/21 vs. Oklahoma

LESTER OK... FOR NOW

Jon Lester had a somewhat early exit last night, after only 97 pitches through 6 innings pitched. He was feeling a sore groin, and his removal from the game was precautionary. Both Lester and the Sox assure that this won't cost him any starts, and he'll be fine for his next start on Sunday in Chicago.

Without Lester, the Sox are screwed, especially if Beckett can't find his mid-season form.

Source:
Extra Bases

PATRIOTS PREVIEW: PART 3 - WIDE RECEIVERS

We continue our position-by-position preview of the Pats with the receivers.

The Patriots' receiver corps is not as deep as most think. You've got Moss, you've got Welker, then not much else. A year after Donte Stallworth departed, Jabar Gaffney has also moved on. Gaffney only caught 38 passes for 468 yards, but he helped out Moss and Welker by drawing a 3rd DB that otherwise could be used in double coverage.

But the Patriots do have Randy Moss, perhaps the best vertical WR in the game today. Even with Matt Cassel's much more conservative passing attack last year, Moss amassed 1,008 yards from 69 catches, and scored 11 TDs. With Brady back, I still wouldn't expect anything like Moss's 2007 performance of 1,493-98-23. But he''ll return to being the most potent offensive weapon in the quarterback's arsenal. More deep balls, more TDs.



From Moss, I expect 1,200+ yards, 15 TDs.

Wes Welker came to the Patriots with 96 career receptions, 1,121 yards, and 1 TD. As a Patriot, he has 223 catches, 2,340 yards, and 11 TDs. He was Matt Cassel's go-to-guy in '08, and Brady's outlet in '07. And things don't look to change much for '09.
The Pats' O-Line isn't as good as it was in '07, so Welker could be the recipient of more screen-type passes, as well as run a few end arounds or reverses. He might be the most valuable member of the WR corps.



I think Welker once again tops 100 receptions and 1,000 yards. He should also fall just shy of 10 TDs.

Joey Galloway was a nice cheap acquisition that doesn't seem to be working out too well. He's not impressing in training camp or in preseason games. He turns 38 in November, and he's coming off a foot injury. He only caught 13 passes last year because of that injury.

Then again, from '05 to '07, he averaged 67 catches, 1,119 yards, and 7.7 TDs a season. But at the same time, 2005 was the best of those years, and there's a big dropoff in the NFL once you're past 37 years old.

Galloway might be able to be like a much older version of Gaffney, used as a #3 or #4 option, and helping to tie up DBs, or be a short outlet option. He's a solid possession receiver. I don't expect much from him. And he looks like a dirty old man.



After Moss, Welker, and Galloway, the talent level drops off considerably...

Greg Lewis is a 7 year veteran and ex-Philadelphia Eagle. The Eagles are not known for their receivers, and rightfully so. Lewis only caught 19 passes last year. His career high in receptions and yards came in 2005, when he caught 48 passes for 561 yards. Don't expect much from him.



After Julian Edelman starred in the preseason opener, we haven't seen much of him. He caught one pass in the Bengals game, and I never saw him on the field Friday night. He seems like a guy who can be a pesky 4th or 5th receiver in a spread formation. He's got Wes Welker speed and evasiveness, we'll see how reliable his hands are across the middle.



He was a QB at Kent State, but the Patriots have explicitly denied that they'll use him in any sort of Wildcat formation (IMO, the Wildcat will be the biggest flop of the 2009 season). He might throw a pass or two, but in plays like a WR Reverse Pass, a la David Patten.



The Patriots drafted Brandon Tate out of North Carolina. Tate was the acclaimed Hakeem Nicks' counterpart, until going down 5 games into the season. He's athletic, and could one day develop into a solid #3 or #4 guy. I wouldn't expect to see much of him outside of 5 wide formations.

It's a mix bag of targets for Brady to throw to. Moss over the top, with the occasional screen or cross mixed in. Welker all over the place. Galloway a possible deep threat, used more to keep Moss open than anything else. Then there are LOTS of question marks. Who will be the #4 receiver. On most teams, this isn't a pressing issue. But Brady and the Pats use all receivers at all times.

THE SOX WON IN TAMPA?

It wasn't completely easy, but the Sox won their first game in St. Petersburg since May 2nd. That was the only other Sox win in Tropicana Field this season.

Jonathan Papelbon deserves a lot of credit for the win. His 2 perfect innings were good for a Save, and wouldv'e made Dick Radatz cream in his pants. It was his first 2 inning outing since last year's ALCS.

JD Drew, Jason Bay, and Kevin Youkilis all homered. Ellsbury was 2 for 6 with 2 RBI. He knocked in the Sox first and last runs of the game. Both RBI came with 2 outs. He also made an outstanding catch in the 8th.



Wednesday night offers a tantalizing pitcher's duel. Josh Beckett faces Matt Garza. If the Sox win, they all but eliminate the Rays from Wild Card contention, so this is a much bigger game for Tampa Bay.

Source:
ESPN.com

Photo Credits:
AP Photo/Chris O'Meara

BRADY THROWS AT PRACTICE

Associated Press story:

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. (AP)—Tom Brady’s(notes) throwing shoulder seems just fine.

The New England Patriots quarterback threw passes of up to 25 yards at practice Tuesday four days after suffering a sore shoulder when he was tackled in a game against the Washington Redskins. He threw hard passes from a shorter distance.

Coach Bill Belichick didn’t say if Brady would play against the New York Giants on Thursday night in the final exhibition game for both teams.

At first, Brady and backups Andrew Walter(notes) and Brian Hoyer took turns throwing to a Patriots staffer. Walter and Hoyer then went to the other end of the field, leaving Brady with the staffer and quarterbacks coach Bill O’Brien.

Then Brady threw 16 passes from different angles and speeds before lining up for an 11-on-11 drill.

So it doesn't seem like the shoulder injury will affect Brady's status for the season opener on the 14th.

Source:
AP via Yahoo! Sports

PAC-10 FOOBALL PREVIEW

I think the Pac-10 is one of the most overrated football conferences, with one of the most overrated programs (USC), which also has the most overrated coach in all of sports (Pete Carroll). But it also has the best looking females, so it's not all bad.

#1 CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS
If Cal is going to make some noise, this will be the year to do it. USC is slightly weaker than usual, and Cal returns a lot of talent at key positions. RB Jahvid Best rushed for 1,580 yards last year on 194 carries. Yes, that's 8.1 yards per carry. They have an experienced group of receivers, and their defense has some nice pass rushing ability on the outside. Their non-conference schedule provides decent tune up games against Maryland and Minnesota. They also host USC in one of the biggest games of the season.

Key Games:
9/26 @ #14 Oregon
10/3 vs. #4 USC
11/7 vs. #25 Oregon State

Prediction:
10-3, Pac-10 Champs, Rose Bowl losers



#2 SOUTHERN CAL TROJANS
After they beat Penn State in last year's Rose Bowl, some morons argued that they had just as much of a BCS beef as Texas did. Fuck that shit. USC has a habit of losing random games to teams they should beat. In '08, it was Oregon State. In '07, it was Stanford. In '09, it will be Notre Dame.

The Trojans have a lot of holes to fill, but they always reload. Recruiting kids to play at USC is like beating a deaf guy in a hearing competition. They also have to play 5 games against ranked opponents, with 4 of those on the road. That could be their undoing.

Big Games:
9/12 @ #6 Ohio State
10/3 @ #12 California
10/17 @ #23 Notre Dame
10/24 vs. #25 Oregon State
10/31 @ #14 Oregon

Prediction: 10-3, Holiday Bowl winner.



#3 OREGON DUCKS
The Ducks only lost 3 games last year. QB Jeremiah Masoli threw for 1,744 yards, and ran for 718 more. Inside the conference, they have a big advantage because they host both USC and Cal. But their non-conference schedule might chew them up a bit. They had the balls to schedule Boise State (on the road, no less) AND Utah. Utah, by the way, hasn't lost a game since November of '07. Unfortunately, Oregon's bravery will be punished and not rewarded. They'll make some noise in the conference, but they're too thin to stay with the likes of the big boys from Cali.

Key Games:
9/3 @ #16 Boise State
9/19 vs. #18 Utah
9/26 vs. #12 California
10/31 vs. #4 USC
12/3 vs. #25 Oregon State

Prediction: 10-3, Sun Bowl win



The rest in alphabetical order...

ARIZONA WILDCATS
No clear choice at QB, big gaps in the offensive line, a bland defense, and they have to play USC in Pasadena, and Cal in Berkeley. It will be hard for Zona to improve on their 7-5 record from last season.



ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS
ASU had the 113th best rushing offense in the country last year. That doesn't look to improve, and neither does the O-line, or the QB situation. They have a decent defense that might give some teams a headache, and potentially lead to an upset. But it's hard to believe they'll do anything except compete with rival Arizona in the chewy center of the Pac-10. But they have the hottest girls in college football.






OREGON STATE BEAVERS
OSU find themselves ranked 25th by default. The bottom third of the Top 25 is a revolving door of teams coming and going, winning and losing. The beavers have Pac-10 Offensive Player of the Year Jacquizz Rodgers, who rushed for 1,253 yards, 11 TDs, and 0 fumbles. But they have an awful defense with an abysmal secondary. They'll finish a very distant 4th in the Pac-10, and could perhaps be in that Arizona/Arizona State mess around the 5th spot.



STANFORD CARDINAL
Stanford is a bit of a throwback team. In the pass-happy Pac-10, the Cardinal are very good at running the ball, and adept at stopping the run. But actually passing the ball (a must when you're behind), and stopping the pass (a must when you're ahead) are Stanford's biggest roadblocks to bowl eligibility. But considering they have academic standards (high ones at that), it's safe to say that Jim Harbaugh's done a good job there. Except at scheduling. They play Wake Forest (on the road) and Notre Dame instead of going after more cupcake wins to help them reach that bowl game.



UCLA BRUINS
17.7. That's how many points the Bruins averaged in 2008. And that's predominately against middling Pac-10 defenses. 5 times last year, they were held to 10 points or fewer. And it doesn't look like much will change for Norm Chow's offensive unit. But they do have a good defense, which might provide an upset win, but will generally go to waste.



WASHINGTON HUSKIES
The good news is, you can't get much worse if you're Washington. 0-12 last year, they carry a 14 game losing streak which will surely reach 15 as they open their season against LSU. There's nowhere to go but up, but it will be a slow, nearly sideways move up. They're relying on QB Jake Locker, who can run, but who's only completed 48.7% of his career passes.



WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS
The state of Washington might just have the worst college football in the country. The Huskies were 0-12, while the Cougars were 2-11. Wazzou was outscored by over 400 points last season, and half their wins came against lowly Washington. Their other win came against Portland State, who went 4-7 in D-IAA.

So think about it. Last year, the state of Washington produced 1 victory against a I-A opponent, and that was one Washington team beating another Washington team 16-13. Pathetic.

PATRIOTS PREVIEW: PART 2 - RUNNINGBACKS

We continue our position-by-position preview of the Patriots with the runningbacks. The Patriots haven't had a true #1 RB since the departure of Corey Dillon. And they still don't. However, the Pats have plenty of options in the backfield.

Sammy Morris rushed for 727 yards last year, with a nice 4.7 average. But he only had more than 16 carries in 1 game, and that was the Week 17 Wind Bowl in Buffalo. Morris had 24 carries in that game, Lamont Jordan had 20, and Cassel only threw 8 passes.



Morris runs better when he runs less frequently. If he's kept between 12 to 15 carries, he's most efficient. Last year, with Maroney out, the Patriots leaned on him a great deal. He was an unsung hero of the offense. His carries will go down, but his production will remain just as pivotal.



Laurence Maroney is another Patriots RB that needs to keep his carries down. When paired with the afore mentioned Corey Dillon, he looked extremely good. And people forget that in 2007, he rushed for 835 yards, and a 4.5 yard average.



The problem with Maroney is consistency, both in his health and in his running game. In 2007, he'd have a few 100 yard games, averaging 5.0+ yards per carry. Then he'd have a 44 yard performance, struggling to get 3.0 YPC. In the '07 playoffs, he followed a pair of 122 yard outings with a 36 yard Super Bowl effort, and that was on 14 carries.

He's not reliable, even when healthy. Until he proves to be persistently consistent, he's not much more than a 1st down back to be used to spell Morris, Taylor, and Faulk.

Fred Taylor is one of the more interesting stories to watch in the early season. He's 33 years old, coming off injury, and his 2008 season was statistically one of his worst. But the Jaguars had a crappy offensive line, and against the Patriots, opponents will be forced to defend against the pass more.

I think Fred Taylor is going to be a sturdy, dependable back, so long as his carries are kept to a minimum. That's sort of a trend in the Patriots backfield, that everyone has to be kept under 12 carries per game.



But don't forget, Fred Taylor rushed for 1,202 yards in 2007.

And then there's Kevin Faulk, who should one day be enshrined in The Hall at Patriot Place. Faulk is the 3rd down back, and it's not just because he has great hands and is excellent at picking up blitzes. He does run the ball on occasion, and can be devastating. He rushed for 507 yards on 83 attempts last year, with a staggering 6.1 yard average.



With Maroney as an accesory-back, Taylor and Morris splitting a bulk of the carries, and Faulk on 3rd downs, the Patriots RB situation should be entertaining to watch.

The Patriots rushed for 2,278 yards last season, which was good for 6th in the NFL. And they were 4th in rushing TDs with 21. The addition of Fred Taylor only enhances the Patriots rushing game. Give Brady and the offense 2,000+ yards on the ground, and things get very difficult for opposing defenses.

Sources:
ESPN.com
NFL.com

PENNY TO GIANTS

The San Francisco Giants signed Brad Penny, and plan to start him Wednesday night. The Giants are tied with the Rockies for the NL Wild Card lead. And if John Smoltz's rebirth in the NL is any indication, Penny should do well in the Senior/Lesser Circuit.

Source:
Fox Sports