THERE WILL BE SNOW IN BOSTON

J.T. Snow will probably remain in World Series highlight reels for all-time because of his efforts to get Dusty Baker's son Derrin out of the way of the most furious play in baseball: the play at the plate. The Red Sox hope he can help them return to the World Series once more. They have reportedly signed the veteran lefthanded first baseman to a 2 year, $2 million deal. Snow will probably play in a platoon role with righthanded Kevin Youkilis.

ESPN.com Article

David Ortiz expects to get a contract extension soon. 2006 is the last year of the two year extension he signed two years ago, obviously. He most assuredly deserves an extension along with a raise over his $6.5 million salary. The Red Sox need to get this done NOW!

The thing about negotiating contract extensions early is that technically it doesn't make a difference. In reality, though, it does. It lets the player know you want him on the team. It also allows you to negotiate without competing with other teams that may or may not be offering bigger and/or longer contracts. We simply can't afford to lose Ortiz.

There is word from Manny's agent that they are still looking at deals. This doesn't completely contradict the report from ESPN Deportes that Manny wanted to stay. I guess his agent pobably isn't as pone to mood swings as Manny.

PATRIOTS PLAYOFF PREVIEW

The Patriots started off the season with high expectations. They then saw player after player fall to injury. They had already lost Ty Law to the Jets, Ted Johnson to retirement, Tedy Bruschi to a stroke, Romeo Croenell to the Browns, and Charlie Weis to Notre Dame. Then Rodney Harrison went down for the season. Matt Light went down for the season. Corey Dillon went down, as did Kevin Faulk, Patrick Pass, Heath Evans, Tom Ashworth, David Givens, almost the entire defensive secondary, Richard Seymour, and then Tedy Bruschi AGAIN. Yet some how, some way, the Patriots find themselves in the playoffs and at home to start them off.

The last time the Patriots played the Jaguars was in 2003. The Pats won 27-13 in a snow-filled game in Foxborough. Before that, they beat us in a playoff game in 1998. That game was in Jacksonville. In 1997, we beat them 26-20. We beat them in 1996 28-25 (I think Vinaieri had his first game-winning FG in this one) then once more in the AFC Championship game 20-6.

The big question with this game is who will be starting at quarterback for the Jaguars. Byron Leftwhich is the pocket passer of the two. His QB rating is only 6 points higher than David Garrard. However, Garrard played against some pretty weak teams (Arizona, Houston, San Francisco, Cleveland, Tennessee). Garrard can run the ball. He had 29 carries for 185 yards. He was sacked 8 times in 6 games. Leftwich was sacked 23 times in 10 games.

Leftwich has been named the started by Jack Del Rio, but that doesn't mean we won't see any of Garrard. He could come in if Leftwich isn't performing/gets hurt or if Del Rio wants a quick change of pace to keep the Pats defense off balance.

The Jaguars game plan will probably be very simple on defense. They will attack Tom Brady all night. Their defensive line is anchored in the middle by Marcus Stroud and John Henderson. They only have 4 sacks combined, but they are able to create solid and consistent pressure up the middle that will force Brady back in the pocket. They will also be hard to block when it comes to running plays. This season, when Brady has been pressured consistently, the Pats offense has been far less than stellar. We depend on multiple passing options and progressions for Brady, along with well designed receiver routes that take time to develop. Pressure would screw this gameplan up quite a bit.

Jacksonville has the 6th ranked defense in the league, allowing 291 yards a game. They are the third best defense on 3rd down conversions. They are 7th against the pass and 8th against the run. They also have the 6th best scoring defense. They probably won't let the Patriots get much going on the ground, but we haven't had much on the ground all season. This game, offensively at least, will be up to Brady and the receivers to win. The Pats will probably spread the ball, as usual, and will probably utilize everyone. We have a great deal of depth when it comes to guys to catch the ball and it will be on full display Saturday night.

The Jaguars offense is average and unspectacular. They're 12th in scoring in the NFL. Fortunately for us, they're 19th in passing. They're 10th in rushing. I think we can stop their rushing attack with our front 7. Especially if Bruschi is healthy. Fred Taylor and Greg Jones combined for over 1,200 yards this season but that was against the likes of Houston and Tennessee. I think the Patriots will effectively stop the run game.

The Jaguars passing game isn't all that impressive. Jimmy Smith had a good season with over 1,000 yards but none of Jacksonville's receivers apart from him are very threatening. If we can keep the running game to about 3 yards a carry and shut down Jimmy Smith, we can keep Jacksonville under 20 points. If we keep Jacksonville under 20 points, we will win. If not, I think we will lose or it will be a coinflip whether or not we win.

Gameday temperature should be in the 20's with a 20% chance of snow. This plays in our favor. The Jags haven't played in a cold weather game in a month. They barely escaped Cleveland with a 20-14 win. They needed 17 second half points to come back. Now, the Browns were 4-8 this year. We're much better than them. That was the ONLY game Jacksonville has played in cold weather all season.

Prediction: Patriots 24, Jaguars 17.

MANNY TO STAY PUT...MAYBE

English translation of ESPN Desported article

"No hay cambio. Voy a quedarme en Boston, donde conozco el sistema y tengo mis amistades, especialmente mi compañero David Ortiz."

"there is no change. I am going to remain in Boston, where I know the system and I have my friendships, specially my companion David Ortiz."

Manny says he wants to stay in the American League. He says he wants to play for a competetive team. A trade with the Mets would put him in the National League. A trade to the Orioles would put him on a non-competetive team. It looks like he is here to stay.

Were the Boston Red Sox simply incapable of moving Manny or did they simply know that he would change his mind after a few days of trade talk? They seemed to take their time and didn't really seem to put that much effort into making the deal. They'd make an offer one day then wait 24 hours or more to come up with some new offer. It took almost 3 days for the Orioles to make it clear that they wanted Andy Marte thrown into the deal. Did the Sox know that they could slow down negotiations until Manny was going to decide to stay? I have no idea. It is possible.

The precursor to this was when Manny asked for a contract extension to be part of any trade. This request was simply ridiculous considering how much money he will already be paid. I think when Manny asked for this, he was having second thoughts about being dealt to the Orioles.

THE BEST COLLEGE GAME I'VE EVER SEEN

I swear to God that this is true. Before the Rose Bowl started, I predicted a score of 42-38 with Texas as the winner. The game ended 41-38 with Texas as the winner.



I am an Oklahoma fan so normally I don't root for Texas. In fact, I became an Oklahoma fan because I hate the state of Texas. However, ever since Pete Carroll took over at USC, I've not liked them. Then they started winning titles and people started calling Carroll a good coach. This was despite the fact that Carroll had the most talented teams in the country by far. Furthermore, Carroll had nothing to do with the offense and for the past two seasons, the offense has carried the Trojans.



I also don't like Reggie Bush or Matt Leinart. Ever since Bush celebrated early against Notre Dame and then took a kickoff away from his own teammate in the same game, I haven't really liked him. I also find the "619" on the eye black to be retarded. Even if he were from Boston and it was 617, I'd still hate it. I also don't like the hype around Bush. He's a talented running back with multiple capabilities. But he also runs behind an amazing offensive line, has a great passing game to support him, and he can rest because of Lindell White and his 57 career TDs. White runs up the middle and wears out defenses then Bush goes to the outside and outruns them. It's a great combination, not just Reggie Bush.



I don't like Matt Leinart because I think he's afraid of the NFL. Why else would he stay at USC? To get his degree by taking a dance class? To complete the normal 5 year red-shirted college experience? I think that any true competitor would always want the bigger challenge once they've conquered a level. Leinart won every game he started in 2004, took the Heisman, and won the national title. His second. But he didn't want to leave. Then all the morons on ESPN are praising him. God knows why.



I think this guy should have won the Heisman. He had a QB rating of 111.6 and was one of the most efficient passers in college football. Throw in 850 rushing yards (led the team) and 9 TDs on the ground and then the fact that he was essentially the entire offense of an undefeated offensive powerhouse (60+ points in 4 games, 50+ in 7 games, 40+ in 12 games) and you've got yourself a Heisman winner. The Longhorns had 6,101 yards of total offense. Vince Young accounted for 3,619 of those. That's 59.3% of a teams total offense from one man's arm and legs. Texas rushed for over 3,200 yards this season as they were well ahead in most of their games. Furthermore, Young didn't have amazing WRs. They were good, but none were great.



The best college football game I've seen in my short but sport-filled life. Two teams superior to every other system in the country squaring off in front of more than 90,000 fans. A team from LA with glamorous superstars getting all the attention and all the accolades. Then a team from the college town of Austin from the state where football is King. Tommy Trojan oppositte Beavo summed it all up. Then the unheralded, and somewhat overlooked Longhorns went to war with the Trojans. It came down to inches and 4th downs. Broken plays turned into big gains. Masterful plans executed to perfection. This game had everything. Even defense in the 1st half. If someone could come up with a better game in the past 20 years, let alone a better bowl game, let alone a better championship game, I'll be most impressed.

FLUTIE WINS AWARD

Doug Flutie was awarded the AFC Player of the Week on Special Teams for week 17. It is the fifth time he has won a Player of the Week award and it is the first time he's gotten it on special teams.

Tedy Bruschi also got an award. He was awarded the Ed Block Courage Award for the Patriots. Each NFL team has a recipient and Tedy is the Pats'. There will be a ceremony for the recipients in February.

Bad news on the Tejada front. The Red Sox and Orioles reportedly exchanged offers but the Orioles didn't like the deal. They want more. I don't know how much more the Red Sox could offer. They're willing to give up their best hitter, a solid pitcher, and cash. I have a really bad feeling that the Sox might overpay for Tejada just to make a splash and make a positive move so the fans are satisfied for a bit.

"THE DEAL"

The buzz in baseball is that the Red Sox are trying to get Miguel Tejada. Still. For about the fifth straight week. The deal currently being discussed seems to be Manny Ramirez and Matt Clement for Miguel Tejada and a prospect, said to be outfielder Nick Markakis.

The deal will supposedly be done soon if it is done at all. I'm pretty excited at the possibility of Miguel Tejada wearing a Red Sox uniform, but would it really improve our team to the point where we'd be a 95-100 win team. By the way, we're probably going to need 100 wins to claim the division, maybe even to claim 2nd place.

Tejada would probably replace Ramirez in the batting order. What could we expect from Tejada offensively?

Last year, Miguel Tejada batted .304. Manny Ramirez batted .292. That's about one additional hit per 100 at-bats, or around once every 27 games in a 600 AB season. Tejada's .304 was higher than his .280 career average while Ramirez's .292 was lwoer than his .292 average. In fact, 2005 was the first season Manny had an average below .300 since he became a regular player with the Indians. Batting average wise, they will probably be the same, hovering around .300 or so.

Tejada might see his average go up if he came to the Red Sox. He does hit well in Fenway. Last year against the Red Sox, he hit .306 against us while playing in Camden Yards. He hit .439 against us in Fenway. He slugged .805 in Fenway, hitting 7 doubles, a triple, and two homeruns. He knocked in 7 in 9 games and 41 at-bats in Fenway. However, he did strike out more frequently in Fenway.

Manny outslugged Tejada .594 to .515. Manny had 45 HRs to Miguel's 26. Miguel wound up with more extra-base hits with 81 compared to Manny's 76. However, Manny had exactly 100 fewer ABs than Miguel (654 to 554). Manny walked twice as much as Tejada, but he also struck out much more.

Here's what we'd probably get out of Tejada: 600 at-bats, 180 hits, 50 doubles or triples, 30 homeruns, 100 singles. 110 runs scored, 110 runs knocked in.

Now, keep in mind that Manny would be hitting without Johnny Damon batting leadoff. Manny has had a good leadoff man almost his entire career in Kenny Lofton with Cleveland, and Damon here in Boston. Damon didn't start hitting very well until 2004. In 2003, Damon hit .273 and Manny had 104 RBI. In 2004, Damon hit .304 and Manny knocked in 130. Last year, Damon batted .316 and Manny knocked in 144. So how would Manny do without Damon or any "traditional" leadoff hitter in front of him?

I think Manny would still hit, getting an average in between .295 and .310. He'd still hit homeruns, hitting 40 or so. He'd still get on base and score about 110 runs. But, I don't think he would knock in more than 120 runs tops.

There are, of course, many more things to baseball than numbers. It is obvious that Manny is at elast a small distraction to the Red Sox clubhouse. They can dismiss it as "Manny being Manny." However, it must be distracting to not know if your teammate will screw up or not put forth a full effort. If we don't trade Manny, he could shut down. I know he has wanted to be traded in the past and has still performed, but that always seemed to be because he decided he wanted to stay. Until he makes that decision, he asks to be benched, or he doesn't give it his all if he does play. What if he doesn't decide he wants to stay until May or June? We could be out of the playoff race by then.

Tejada wants out of Baltimore. He wants to play for a competetive team like Boston. He wants to play for a team that will spend money to win, not to bring in big name players like Sammy Sosa and Rafael Palmeiro. He is probably fed up with the rivers of scum that flow in and around Camden Yards. I'm not talking about the fans, I'm tlaking about that organization's proficiency for acquiring some of the lowest calibre of people to play for them (Sosa, Palmeiro, Ponson, Bedard [don't ask]). I think if Tejada came here, he would play hard, and be a leader. Francona probably won't let him, but Tejada would want to play every single game, which he has for 5 straight years. In the same stretch, Manny has missed 90 games (18 per season) due to various "injuries" and "illnesses."

I think Tejada would be an improvement for the Red Sox. We'd probably get similar production numbers and we would get them from a player who is more consistent and, at least until WEEI drives him out, wants to be here. (sarcasm). The loss of Clement in the deal would not really kill us, especially if we get another pitcher via free agency and/or if we keep Arroyo. Plus, we could get a nice prospect out of it (Markakis batted .339 in AA last season, is rated by Baseball-America as Baltimore's top prospect, and went 3/11 in spring training last season). Markakis probably wouldn't be able to step up and immediately play in the outfield, but he would probably be ready to do so by 2007.

So the deal is good. But it isn't monumentally great. It makes us better, but it doesn't even begin to solve all of our problems. We would still need another solid pitcher, in my opinion, because Schilling, Papelbon, Beckett, Wakefield, and Arroyo all have question marks flying around them, as does Keith Foulke and the soon-to-be worn out.

If we do trade Manny, then we'll have TWO holes in the outfield which will put us in an even weaker position to bargain with other teams for a left-fielder and a center-fielder. We couldv'e gotten Lofton for $4M, but we seriously though Damon would sign a 4 year, $40 deal.

In summary, I'd like to make a deal for Tejada, but I wouldn't burst out of my house and start dancing in the sreets if we got him. We'd still need to make a few more moves to be competetive in the much tougher AL East.

SATURDAY NIGHT, GILLETTE STADIUM, FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS

The Patriots will host the Jacksonville Jaguars Saturday night at 8:00 PM in Gillette Stadium. The weather forecast for Foxboro(ugh) is a high of 32 on Saturday with a low of 20. Game time temperature, this is just a guess, should be in the mid to high 20's getting colder as the game progresses. There is also snow in the forecast. But, we all know that the weather in New England can often change dramatically within a few hours so a forecast for the weather 6 days away is less than set in stone.

LET THE PHINS CELEBRATE A JOKE WIN

I love the Natick hoodie. This might have been Doug Flutie's final game of his career and the sweatshirt is a nice tribute to the Natick native. Allowing Flutie to drop kick an extra point was an even better tribute. It also demonstrated how seriously the Patriots took this game, which wasn't very much at all. It was the first succesful drop-kick in the NFL since 1941. This was a scrimmage for the Patriots. Nothing more. And we still almost came out a winner. The funniest part of the game is probably the celebrating and trash talking Miami Dolphins players, who will go back to Florida to WATCH football while the Patriots remain in Foxborough to PLAY football.

Oh, and Jason Taylor roughing Matt Cassel with 10 seconds left in the 4th showed how classless, pathetic, and lowly the Miami Dolphins really are. What are you trying to prove, Jason?

Cassel started off and looked, well, like a rookie and a 2nd stringer. But he settled down nicely and we nearly came back to tie the game. If it weren't for that safety, we might have won it. Cassel threw a pair of TD passes against Miami's 1st stringers. What I think might be very telling of the young USC grad is that he was pissed after the Pats failed to convert the 2 pointer at the end.

I kind of feel bad for Cassel. He goes to USC and has to play behind Carson Palmer, 2002's Heisman winner, and then Matt Leinart, 2004's Heisman winner, and then Tom Brady, a 2 time Super Bowl MVP. He has still stuck with it and he still looks very skilled and very motivated. I think we've got a really good backup QB in Matt Cassel.

This is just a funny picture:


Another laughable aspect of this game was the way the announcers were praising the Dolphins when they were struggling to finish drives against the Patriots' Junior Varsity team. We had Klecko, Banta-Cain, Izzo, Chatham, Mike Wright, and Chad Brown in the game. The strength of this defense has been the front 7 and the only regular in the front 7 that played regularly was Ty Warren.

So, the Patriots will host the Jaguars on either Saturday or Sunday. Had they beaten Miami, they would have hosted the Steelers. I think it is a wash either way. Both teams have their exploitable flaws and both teams have their fearsome strengths. A big advantage we will have over Jacksonville is experience in the cold weather. Saturday the forecast calls for 33 degrees and snow. Sunday is supposed to be partly cloudy and 32 degrees. I'll write more on the playoff game in the following days.

In summary, our JV team lost by a 2 point conversion to an NFL team. Had we tried our hardest and played our best players, we probably would have won. But we got some good reps for people that, God forbid, might have to see time in the playoffs. We also got a week of half rest for some banged up and tired starters who haven't had a bye in 10 weeks.

Who said Bellichick doesn't smile?