FORT MATSUZAKA

Today Daisuke Matsuzaka officially "arrived" at Spring Training. His activities were mostly being interviewed by the media. He also played catch with George Kotteras, a recently signed addition to the team. Kotteras will probably be the team's 3rd catcher this season. Daisuke also found his locker, which was right in between Jason Varitek and Hideki Okajima.

The Red Sox are really going all out to make Matsuzaka's transition as smoothe as possible. From coaches and staff learning phrases in Japanese, to facilitating the massive contingent of Japanese media following Matsuzaka around.

From watching some of his condensed games from the WBC (they were on YouTube, as soon as I find them, I can post them back up again), I've developed a few observations and thoughts on Matsuzaka.

He goes very deeply into counts, often falling behind or failing to get ahead. This isn't such a bad thing, as he has confidence to throw any pitch in any situation (reminiscent of Pedro in that regard). I'm somewhat concerned that perhaps MLB hitters will take advantage of this. The more pitches any hitter sees in an at-bat, the more likely he will hit one and hit it well. The batters in MLB adjust very well within their at-bats. Furthermore, the other hitters watching are also able to learn. NPB hitters aren't minor league hitters, per se, but they aren't on the same level as MLB hitters.

I also am worrying about the confidence he has with any pitch in any situation. Against NPB hitters, this has worked out nicely, but MLB hitters are far different. He might not be able to rely on his sheer talent to overwhelm a hitter no matter what the count is.

I also think that when Matsuzaka begins pitching to MLB hitters, they will have a slight edge. They will have seen an array of his pitches before ever facing him. If Matsuzaka struggles just a little bit, due to new surroundings, the 5 man rotation, hitters knowing his pitches, whatever, he might begin to lose some of that confidence. This is a player who has been the best since he was in high school (and perhaps even before that). Many times, even the best athletes struggle when they face competition with a talent level similar to their own.

I saw Daisuke throw some really good pitches in these videos, many of them in pressure situations. And he came out on top. So I've seen some of his talent, and it looks good. But what will truly be tested this season and seasons ahead, will be his character.

IN OTHER NEWS...
The Boston Celtics are finally back in the headlines around Boston and the nation.
Why? Because they're trying their best to get the #1 pick in the NBA draft. The Celtics are 12-38 on the season, have lost their last 18 straight games, Right now, the Celtics have the worst record in the NBA, one game behind the Memphis Grizzlies. Of course, this failure could backfire and an unlucky bounce of the ping pong balls could result in a less than stellar draft pick for the Celtics.

Which would really make them suck.

BU won the Beanpot Tournament for the 3rd year in a row, the 11th time in 13 years, and the 28th time overall. They did it in style with a 2-1 win over rival BC in Overtime.

HAPPY TRUCK DAY

The equipment truck left Fenway Park at 1 PM today, bound for Fort Myers. It's beginning to look a lot like Spring Training.

Papelbon, Lester, Delcarmen, and Becket are already in Fort Myers. Matsuzaka will be arriving sometime tonight, I believe.

LA REPUBLICA DOMINICA GANA SERIE DE MUNDO DEL CARIBE

Translation: The Dominican Republic wins Caribbean World Series.

Winter baseball ended with its annual bang. The DR finished the CWS with a 5-1 record, only losing to Puerto Rico on the last day.

Two members of the Red Sox were featured in the CWS. Alex Cora started at third base for Puerto Rico and hit leadoff in all 6 of their games. Puerto Rico finished 2nd in the CWS with a 4-2 record. Julian Tavarez started in the Dominican Republic's 7-1 victory over Venezuela.

Cora went 8 for 22 (.364 average) with 4 RBI and 2 runs scored. He had a few extra basehits and slugged .455.

In Tavarez's start, he pitched 5.1 innings, allowing just 1 earned run off 3 his and a walk. He threw 75 pitches, 47 of which were strikes. That's a 1.69 ERA in that start and a WHIP of 0.750. Tavarez also sustained a mild ankle sprain during the game, but it is not believed to be serious. He remained in the game and did not require X-rays.

PRE-SPRING-TRAINING BUZZ
Just a few notes as Spring Training grows closer.

The Red Sox are still in disagreement with Wily Mo Pena about his salary. Pena is requesting his salary be raised to $2.2 million, a raise of about $1 million over last season, while the Red Sox have offered as high as $1.725 million. The matter appears to be heading into arbitration, where a "neutral" third-party will determine which amount Pena should be paid this year. If this does go to arbitration, it will be the first arbitration for the Sox since Theo Epstein has been the GM.

Pena will probably end up as our 4th outfielder, but will probably see a good deal of playing time as a right-handed power hitter both off the bench and against tough left-handed pitchers. Also, with JD Drew's injury history, Coco Crisp's lack of consistency in '06 in Manny Being Manny, having a good 4th outfielder will be important for the long season ahead.

Matt Clement has yet to throw a baseball in his return from shoulder surgery. It is very likely he will miss the entire 2007 season, his last under contract with the Red Sox.

Jon Lester has already reported to Fort Myers in order to get ready for Spring Training. He will most likely begin the season at AAA Pawtucket, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him up in Boston for spot starts during the season. He is currently listed at 6th on the Red Sox depth chart for starting pitchers.

Curt Schilling seriously needs to shut up. This whole "sign me by Opening Day or I'll file for free agency" crap is really aggravating. Curt, you signed a contract, it expires at a given time. You're old and you're mediocre now. You're not going to get locked up for another season at $13 million just because you say so. If you honestly think you'll get that $13 million on the free market at the end of 2007, I think you're being a tad delusional. And if you do pitch well enough to deserve such an investment, then I'm sure the Red Sox would be more than happy to pay you. So have some patience, and some respect. Remember, this team is trying to win World Series rings, not keep you happy. They're not going to shell out $13M, or about 9% of what will probably be this year's total player salary, on a hunch that a 40 year old pitcher will be worth it. Does Curt's childish behavior remind anyone else of Nomar?

Just a quick question, why do the Boston Globe and Boston Herald each have different Spring Training countdowns on their web-sites? The Herald has Spring Training about a day before the Globe has it. What's with the confusion?

Here is a list of 18 non-roster invitees to Red Sox Spring Training:

Pitchers:
Abe Alvarez
Adam Bernero
Mike Burns
Bryan Corey
Runelvys Hernandez
Travis Hughes

Catchers:
Dusty Brown
Kevin Cash
Alberto Castillo

Infielders:
Jeff Bailey
Luis Jimenez
Joe McEwing
Ed Rogers
Bobby Scales
Chad Spann

Outfielders:
Jacoby Ellsbury
Alex Ochoa
Kerry Robinson

There is still extremely little word coming out of the Manny Ramirez camp. Manny hasn't been heard from since December and his agents are pretty hush-hush about his "state of mind" whatever that means.

Francona seems to think that "He's OK." But would terry ever say anything other than that?

CLOSER BY...COMMITTEE?

Cue dramatic music.

But there is a looming question as Spring Training comes closer and closer. Who is going to finish games for the Boston Red Sox this season?

The Red Sox seem hell-bent on keeping Papelbon in the rotation, which probably means that they feel strongly that him playing as a reliever would be very detrimental to his arm health. But the red Sox failed to sign any proven closer over the off-season. There were few available, and those that were out there were quite expensive and/or coming off of injuries and/or not really all that special.

Mike Timlin boasts the most closing experience and the best resume for the job. He's finished a total of 422 regular season games in his career and has 139 Saves, including 9 last season and 25 as a member of the Red Sox. However, the soon to be 41 year old righty is starting to show signs of wear and tear. Last season, he seemed to slowly be degraded as more and more innings were piled onto that very experienced right arm of his. Counting the playoffs, Timlin has thrown 1,142 Major League innings, in 999 appearances. Over the past 4 years, he's made 297 regular season appearances. This is quite a lot of pitching for someone in his late 30's and early 40's. I think that in order to keep Timlin truly effective this season, he should be limited to somewhere around 40 appearances AT THE MOST. We need a dependable and experienced guy like him to be healthy for the playoffs. A closer for the Sox will probably need to make at least 50 appearances and will have to be called on multiple times to pitch more than 1 inning and more than two games in a row. So although Timlin probably could close, in order to keep him healthy, I think it would be unwise to make him close.

Craig Hansen seems like the next most sensible option to close games for the Sox. He was pretty much drafted as a closer out of St. John's, where he recorded 25 Saves. He's got the potential for devastating "closer stuff" with a very fast fast ball and a mean slider. Last year was a good year in the minors for Craig with a 0.82 ERA in 11 innings at AA Portland, and a 2.75 ERA in 36 innings at AAA Pawtucket. But his performance in the Majors was hardly impressive. His 6.63 ERA and 1.61 WHIP were the numerical signs of a pitcher who essentially featured one pitch and was beaten consistently by Major League hitting. Hansen should begin the season as a reliever in AAA Pawtucket. And if he does well, he might be the closer by the end of the season. But it might be too risky, particularly for his confidence, to start him off in the Majors in '07 and as a closer.

Mann Delcarmen is in a similar situation to Hansen, but perhaps a little bit further along the developmental road. Very good minor league numbers last year, coupled with unimpressive MLB numbers. He seems to be coming along nicely though and will probably begin the season with the big club, and not Pawtucket. But his lack of consistency and reliability jeopardizes him as a closer. A good closer is someone who will be very good for that final inning at least 4 times out of 5. Delcarmen was not truly capable of this last season. Also, when he struggled, he was very hittable. In other words, he wasn't able to pitch extremely cleverly and get away with a bad outing. This is another thing a good closer will do quite frequently.

Brendan Donnelly is another possible option for closer. Although he only has 4 career saves under his belt, he has shown a proficiency for pitching late in games and in big situations. He's got 74 career Holds and has expressed a willingness to finish games. However, last season was not his best, he had a slightly better than average 3.94 ERA. He does tend to do very well against right-handed hitters, who were held to just hitting .204 off him last season. And he does fairly well against lefties, too. He is definitely a viable option as a closer. Although, he is not a sure thing by any stretch of the imagination.

Julian Tavarez demonstrated a good deal of versatility last season as he pitched nearly 100 innings. He was sometimes a starter and sometimes a reliever. He probably won't break into the Sox rotation in 2007 barring an unforeseen calamity or decision. Even if either Schilling, Wakefield, Papelbon, Beckett, or Matsuzaka were injured or moved to the bullpen, we still have Lester waiting in the wings. So it's pretty clear that Tavarez, at least for now, will be coming out of the bullpen. Julian does have a nice resume for relieving. He was 11 for 14 in save opportunities with Pittsburgh in 2003 and has scattered 22 saves over his career. He also has 83 Holds since 1999, including a very nice 32 Holds in 2005 with St. Louis. So he's definitely capable of pitching late in the game. He could be an option for closer because of this.

Javier Lopez was a bit of a steal for the Red Sox last season as he had a nice 2.27 ERA, albeit in 16.2 IP. He was 1 for 1 in Save opportunities in '06, and had 6 Holds, bringing his career total to 39. However, this is not a very large sample to draw from, and his career ERA of 5.66 is troublesome. Then again, this was mostly from time spent in Colorado. One very nice thing for Lopez last season was that he did pitch a decent amount against right-handed hitting and did fairly well, holding righties to .204. He is a contender for the job.

Other possibilities include Hideki Okajima, who will probably be featured more as a left-handed specialist; JC Romero, who has probably already seen his best days; and Davern Hansack, who has 10 career MLB innings all of which came at the end of last season.

In my honest opinion, closer by committee would theoretically work with this group. None of them is clear-cut above the others to be the next closer, but all of them seem capable of doing the job. Let's say Timlin was the primary closer, but was not to be used too frequently, with Donnely as a secondary option and Lopez brought in to finish games against left-handed threats. I think it would work, but only in theory. The problem is, ballplayers are creatures of habit, understandably so. They like knowing what they will be asked to do before they are asked to do it. Relievers seem to like knowing what their particular role will be in a game and have those roles be the same day in and day out.

Therefore, I think Brendan Donnely will begin the 2007 season as our closer, with Timlin featured as a set-up man, along with Tavarez. Okajima pitching to lefties, Delcarmen being a middle man, and Piniero being a long reliever. But I do also think this situation will be very fluid, with Hansen being in Pawtucket, Delcarmen another year further along, and other large question marks which will be developing answers throughout the season. I think by the All-Star break, we will have a solidified idea of what our bullpen looks like.

HELTON TALKS ARE OFF

So the news is that the Sox and Rockies could not come to a consensus on the proposed Todd Helton deal, so the potential trade is off. Thank God!

You know, deals like this one, and even more ludicrous ones, are bandied about everyday by teams. We just usually don't hear about them unless there's a leak. So sometimes we can panic when we read that the Red Sox are considering trying to get a diminishing, expensive, ex-slugger. But they consider EVERY deal, at least for a split-second. Good to hear they did the right thing and didn't make this deal happen.

HELTON, SCHILLING SITUATIONS

So here's what the Rockies want in exchange for Todd Helton:third-baseman Mike Lowell, pitcher Julian Tavarez, prospects Manny Delcarmen, and Craig Hansen.

This is entirely too much to give up for Helton. First of all, I'd rather have Lowell as opposed to Helton. Lowell is getting paid $7M less this season, has proven he can hit in Fenway Park, has similar numbers to Helton (Helton has a big edge in OBP, but Helton also hits at Coors), and we're only tied to him for 2007. Helton would be on our payroll until at least 2011, and then in 2012, it will be either $4.6M to buy out his contract, or over $23M to keep him for another year.

Then we'd have to include Tavarez, whose versatility could come in handy in the ever growing question mark that is our bullpen, and two young pitchers. You know, you can never EVER have enough pitching in this league. To give up two young pitchers, along with a solid hitter, and a decent reliever/spot-starter for an over the hill, expensive ex-slugger is just stupid.

SUDDENLY SENATOR SCHILLING WANTS TO PITCH THROUGH 2008
In lieu of running for Senator in 2008, Curt Schilling would like to continue pitching. His contract with the Sox expires at the end of the 2007 season, and Curt says he wants an extension. And he wants it now.

You know, I love Curt, he was a big part of the 2004 team, and I'd love to see him finish his career in a Sox uniform. But he turned 40 last November. He'll be 41 for the 2008 season. He did have a solid 2006 season with 204 innings of 3.97 ERA work, but I think he needs to have a bit more patience here. He as yet to throw a single meaningful pitch this year and he already wants us to extend his contract? For how much, exactly? He got $13M last year. Will he be worth that much in '08? How the hell can anyone tell?

I think perhaps a tentative contract with incentives might be a good thing to keep Curt happy. But let's say he only goes 150 innings this year with a 4.00 ERA, should we really re-sign him if we have better options for pitchers? Would he be willing to work out of the pen in his final year?

Curt really sprang this one on the Sox at a really awkward time. I could understand wanting this done after a nice April, or even a good Spring Training. But now? C'mon, Curt. Just pitch.

TODD HELTON?

There's rumors flying around The Nation about the Red Sox acquiring Todd Helton in a trade. This isn't the first time that Helton and the Sox have been rumored to be involved together. But I kind of hope it is the last.

I'm failing to see why the Sox would want to do a deal for Helton.

1. I think we're pretty much set at first base and offensively. Our biggest question marks are in the outfield, not at first-base. Youkilis had a good first full season in 2006, offensively and defensively. He's not going to make any All-Star teams, but he'll be solid enough. First base is not a hole on this team. And let's say Youk gets hurt or something, Ortiz can play there.

2. Todd Helton is a decent hitter that seems much better thanks to Coors Field. Over the past 3 seasons, Helton's numbers are much better at home as opposed to away. He has a .469 OBP at home, .409 away. .353 batting average at home, .293 away. Looking at the power numbers, one can see that he benefits a great deal from the lack of atmosphere at Coors Field. 42 homers in Denver, 25 away from home. 119 extra basehits at Coors, 91 away. .613 slugging at home, .473 away. 1.082 OPS at home, .882 away. Don't get me wrong, he isn't a bad hitter in general, he's good. But Coors makes him seem great.

3. He isn't as good as he used to be. Over the past 4 seasons, his average, OBP, slugging, HR, and RBI have all gone down lower and lower each year. He's 33 years old and not getting any younger.

4. His salary is way too high. He got $16.6 million last year. Even if Colorado paid half of this, I'd still think that $8 million a season was too much for him. This would be a 5 year commitment, too. That's just too much.

So why would we be willing to pay a large amount of money, give up any prospects, for a player who is on a 3 year down-swing, who hits much better at Coors Field than away from it when we already have a good first baseman and really don't have any glaring offensive holes?

I don't know. Hopefully this is all speculative rumor-mill stuff concocted by bloggers like me, and bored Boston sportswriters who are scrambling to write Sox material after being forced to scrap their typical Patriots Super Bowl bye week stuff.

JD DREW SIGNS WITH SOX...AGAIN

Whenever there's a signing or a trade, you always see this disclaimer. "Pending a physical." Well, this is only the second time that I can recall that said physical has meant something significant in Red Sox Nation. The other time being when the Yankees traded for Ugueth Urbina at the deadline, then he failed a physical, then we traded for him, and he passed a physical. Let's hope that Drew can contribute to the Sox similar to Urbina (49 saves in a season plus a few months) but over a much longer period of time.

I think hope is a key word when talking about JD Drew. The 31 year old has had a career of hope and dashed hope. When the Phillies and Giants drafted him, they hoped he'd sign, but he didn't. Can't blame him much for that. He did sign with St. Louis and the Cardinals hoped their 5th overall pick (Drew was actually selected in the 1st round of the draft twice) would quickly blossom into a potential MVP. Drew did make it to The Show in his very first season with the Cardinals. But in what would have been his first full season (1999), Drew hit the DL for a month and a half with a strained quad. In 2000, he sprained an ankle and missed about 3 weeks. In 2001 he was hit by a pitch and broke a pinkie, then had a lower back sprain. He missed almost a month combined with those injuries. In 2002 he missed half a month with tendinitis in his knee. He had off season surgery on the knee, and coupled with a strained oblique, missed about 6 weeks of 2003. In 2005 he was hit by a pitch on the wrist and missed the entire season after the 4th of July. The barrage of injuries has resulted in JD Drew only playing 145 games or more twice in his career, playing 130 or more 4 times, and playing fewer than 110 four times.

In eight seasons that were meant to be full, JD Drew has amassed 157 homers and 496 RBI. That's 19.6 HRs and 62 RBI. now, he's averaging 27 homers and 86 RBI for every 162 games played, so when he's healthy, he's solid. He also has a very nice .393 OBP in his career, and a respectable .286.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not blaming Drew for his injuries. The two DL stints from being hit by pitches are just freak things. And the guy is obviously in good shape so it isn't like he's to blame for getting hurt. And I'm not going to accuse him of being a Nomar and milking injuries as long as possible. It's just somewhat uneasing to think of him on the Sox. He could very well play 145 games for us this season, hit 30 HRs, and knock in 110 runs. He could very well do that for a few seasons. But at the moment, it is still just a hope. There's very little evidence to suggest that he will do it. He seems capable of doing it, but is he very likely to remain healthy enough to do that? And the thing about injuries is that they mount up over time. They get worse and worse the more times you get hurt. And he isn't exactly a young player anymore.

It just seems like we're taking a big risk on Drew. He seems so much like Trot Nixon in every regard except for salary. Baseball-Reference.com has Trot Nixon as the most similar batter to Drew statistically. The two are prone to frequent injury, and neither one hits right-handers that well. Yet Drew is getting $70 million over 5 seasons, and Nixon was signed by Cleveland for 1 year at $3 million. That's about 5 times as much as Nixon, per season, and its 23 times the commitment to Nixon.

But it isn't my money to risk. I think Drew will perform well, spend some time on the DL, but generally be a positive impact player on the team.

With Drew, the Sox starting position players look like this:

C - Jason Varitek
1B - Kevin Youkilis
2B - Dustin Pedroia
3B - Mike Lowell
SS - Julio Lugo
LF - Manny Ramirez
CF - Coco Crisp
RF - JD Drew
DH - David Ortiz

My basic lineup would look like this:

1. Coco Crisp
2. Kevin Youkilis
3. David Ortiz
4. Manny Ramirez
5. JD Drew
6. Mike Lowell
7. Julio Lugo
8. Jason Varitek
9. Dustin Pedroia

That has the potential to be a very solid middle of the lineup. But the entire thing has the potential to be a disaster. If Crisp continues to struggle, Youkilis's performance last year was a fluke, Manny decides not to try, Drew gets hurt, Lowell falls off, Lugo is a bust, Varitek continues to struggle, and Pedroia doesn't play like a major leaguer; we're screwed. I think we'll score as many as 975 runs if things go right, and as few as 800 if things go poorly. I think as long as we get in that 900 range, we'll be fine.