Friday, March 04, 2011

HOME COOKING

I don't think Tampa Bay is that good. They deserve their spot in the standings, but when the playoffs start, I think they'll finish them sooner than most. They fall down too much. Despite that, and despite the Lightning having played the night before, and being without Lecavalier, I was very impressed with this Bruins win.

Apart from Michael Ryder, the B's didn't do much wrong. They were a bit flat to start the 2nd, then a puck bounced off Kampfer's shin and into the net. But that woke the Bruins up. They dominated the rest of the 2nd, and had the puck for most of the 3rd.

The turning point was a nearly two minute 5-on-3 penalty kill. Thomas made some great saves, and the PK unit was smartly aggressive. Tampa Bay relies on the power play for 40% of their offense. If you shut that down, you're sitting pretty.

Lucic's game-winner came as a result of a scrum, which saw Lightning players literally tripping over each other. Horton and Krejci were in the hogpile, but Lucic was smart enough to wait for a loose puck to slip out. Like a buzzard, he circled around the carcasses, the puck came loose, and he flicked it in. Goal #28. And career point #200 for Krejci.

I loved how physical most of the Bruins played. Lucic, Horton, Boychuk, Chara, McQuaid, Thornton, Campbell, Marchand, Seidenberg, pretty much everyone. Except Ryder. Ryder gave up on easy hits, provided mere token pressure on the forecheck, and was playing a completely different game from his teammates.

After Ryder's going-through-the-motions forecheck, it was Chris Kelly who helped trigger Kampfer's goal in the 2nd. Kelly makes about half of what Ryder gets paid.

Good win over a tired, but still talented team. Saturday night, the Penguins (4th in the East) come to town.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Thursday, March 03, 2011

DOES BC BELONG IN THE TOURNAMENT?

Yes. No. Maybe. Most people have them on the bubble, with their blowout win over Virginia Tech temporarily putting them in. But this post isn't about BC, or whether or not they should be in the tournament. To be honest, I don't follow college basketball closely enough to have an informed opinion on that.

This post is about the NCAA Tournament in general, and why it shouldn't expand. BC will help me demonstrate that point. Because they're not very good.

The Eagles occupy the middle of a very top-heavy and shallow ACC. Only 2 ACC teams are ranked. BC's 8-7 conference record is loaded with wins against Virginia and NC State. They did beat Virginia Tech twice, although they also lost to 9th place Miami. Twice.

Before that, they lost to Harvard and Yale. Thankfully, they didn't have to face Princeton, the top Ivy team. Princeton, by the way, only has one loss against Ivy League opponents, compared to BC's two.

BC might not even be the 2nd best team in New England (UConn being the best). They lost to URI, and they barely beat UMass and Providence. Apart from an early season, neutral site win over Texas A&M, they haven't beaten anyone impressive in or out of their conference.

They've got some good players, but no depth. And those good players all go through lengthy cold streaks. They're not awful. They're not great. If they make the tournament, it's not a joke. It's also not an injustice if they don't make it.

Finally, here's my point. If the tournament were expanded to 96 teams, BC would be a lock. They along with a few dozen other painfully mediocre teams. The field would be overly saturated by 10th place teams with .500 conference records.

There are plenty of good arguments to keep the NCAA field close to 64 teams. To me, though, this is the most alarming and convincing. This year, BC has been the quintessential bubble team. What would the bubble teams be like with 96 slots to fill? Wisconsin-Milwaukee? Long Beach State? Maybe NC State with their 15-14 overall and 5-10 conference records. The Wolfpack are 104th in RPI, and 54th strength of schedule. Why not them in the 96 team field?

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Wednesday, March 02, 2011

BRUINS END ROAD TRIP WITH QUESTION MARK, NOT EXCLAMATION POINT

This had "trap game" written all over it. A game against a bad team sandwiched between big wins over the weekend and big games yet to come. Still, I'd like to think that since this was an obvious potential trap game, the Bruins would show up and play well. Or maybe have a shaky 1st period then settle down. Instead, they played about as well as Ottawa and escaped with a slim 1-0 win.

I must have forgotten who the head coach is. One of the things that's plagued this Bruins team under Julien is a false sense of achievement. Every hot streak seems to end with efforts like this one. Bland, uninspired, directionless.

I know, I know. A win is a win is a win. And six game road trips don't usually end with 12 points in the bank. Why am I being Robbie Downer? Because I've seen this pattern before.

A 6 game road winning streak is impressive. Until you remember that 4 of those games were against the bottom 3 teams in the NHL (Islanders, Senators twice, and the Oilers). The Vancouver win was impressive. The others were standard.

Then we get to last night. For the most part, the Bruins and Senators looked evenly matched. That's not supposed to happen against a last place team that's just traded away most of its roster. The Bruins weren't sharp, they weren't quick. They were indecisive, and they didn't skate. There were a few exceptions, like Horton, but it only takes one or two saboteurs on the ice at a time to slow things down.

We've seen it before, so many times. This team rips off a few wins, then they crap the bed. In the 2009 playoffs, they sweep Montreal, then beat Carolina in Game 1. They ease up on the throttle, allow Carolina to stick around, and suddenly they're on the losing end of a Game 7. And we all remember the Flyers series last spring. The Bruins' MO is to do well, get cocky and complacent, then let a near-death opponent cling to life. That works against Ottawa. It won't work in the playoffs against Philadelphia or Pittsburgh.

So the B's are 6 points ahead of Montreal, with a game in hand. They're tied for the 2nd seed in the East and have an unreal road record of 22-7-4. But I'm not convinced that they're much different from the chokers I've seen in the recent past. Not until they can go to places like Ottawa, give 100%, and outplay bad teams.

Being able to win at home would also help to make me optimistic. The Bruins have the best road record in the NHL, and the 21st best home record.

The next week is a good test for the Bruins. They host Tampa Bay on Thursday, then Pittsburgh on Saturday. They're in Montreal next Tuesday, and host Buffalo two days later. Some home games, some good teams, and then they'll probably lose a 3-2 game in OT to the Islanders after that.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Monday, February 28, 2011

HOW THE WEST WAS WON


Maybe the Bruins should request to play their playoff games on the road. They certainly seem to perform best while away from Boston. The Bruins have won all 5 on their road trip, including a 3-1 win over the Canucks, holders of the best home record in the NHL.

How? Well, it starts with goaltending. Tim Thomas excelled in Vancouver and Calgary, and Tuukka Rask more than held his own in Edmonton, Ottawa, and Nassau.

Then comes the timely scoring. Horton's muscular goal to tie the game in Vancouver. Then Lucic's winning score in the 3rd of the Vancouver game. Lucic has learned the art of scoring in the slot. When he scored against the Canucks, it wasn't just good old fashioned aggression. When Seidenberg blasted a shot, Lucic was ready to smack in the rebound.

What's amazed me about Lucic this season is how quickly he becomes ready to score, how he positions himself in scoring position, before the rebound reaches his stick. When Seidenberg was rearing back to take his shot, Lucic was already prepping for the rebound. And that's why he has 27 goals.

In Edmonton, the team's effort wasn't as inspirational. Then again, they'd just taken on a tough opponent, then traveled to another West Canada bastion of hockey. Nevertheless, the Bruins still overcame the lowly Oilers. It was nice to see guys like Horton and Ryder finally paying their dues on the party bus.

This is a team that will take some doing to reckon with.

Bruins at Senators on Tuesday night.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

BRUINS PLAY WITH FIRE, DON'T GET BURNED

The Flames were hot coming into this game. They hadn't lost at home in regulation since January 3rd. They'd won three straight (scoring 17 in those games), and were 11-1-2 in their last fourteen. But the Bruins matched them. And thanks to some fortunate bounces, and the best goalie in the NHL, the B's continued their winning ways.

New acquisitions Rich Paverley and Chris Kelly were solid. And the Bergeron line once again was the Bruins' best. Marchand's 19th goal of the season came off an exquisitely lucky bounce, but that bounce came after some hard-nosed forechecking by Bergeron, and crafty passing by Recchi. Good things happen to good players.

I liked Seguin skating on a line with Thornton and Campbell. He's not just playing out there, he's fighting. He's fighting to keep the puck, to take it, and ultimately he's fighting for ice time. He probably won a little bit last night.

At times, the Bruins struggled to make plays coming out of their own zone. They just couldn't connect on their passes. I think that among the top teams in the NHL, the Bruins might be the worst at passing the puck.

Thankfully, they have Thomas, who looked much crisper after a few days off. Thomas is a candidate for the Hart Trophy (MVP) because he covers for so many of his teammates' mistakes. He's like a Gold Glove first baseman who saves his infielders from throwing errors. His robbery of Olli Jokinen was beyond human.

Thomas will have a few days off as the Bruins trek further west to Vancouver, home of the #1 team in the NHL: The Canucks. Who boast a 21-4-5 record at home. They're #1 in goals scored, and #1 in goals allowed. Bruins @ Canucks, late night Saturday.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

DAYTONA 500 RECAP

What were you doing the day after you turned 20? I was probably nursing a hangover and eating Thanksgiving leftovers. The day after Trevor Bayne turned 20, he won the Daytona 500, and pocketed $1.46 million for doing so.

The race was long, with a very boring stretch in the middle. 16 cautions slowed the pace. Most of the race featured 4 to 8 cars out in front, casually swapping the lead, and a pack of 20 cars half a mile behind them jockeying for position. Every now and then, a random wreck would eliminate a few contenders.

In the last 10 laps, things got exciting, as the casual lead swapping turned into something a bit more competitive. Bayne was able to get to the front and stay there, blocking two cars down the stretch.

It was cool to see Bayne's excitement. He didn't know what to do to celebrate, got lost driving to victory lane, and he's not even going to be a full time Sprint Cup driver this year. He'll be in the Nationwide Series (NASCAR's equivalent to AAA), driving for Roush-Fenway.

My favorite moment of the race was watching Juan Pablo Montoya's inhuman control of his car. He nearly spun out twice, but was able to save it by locking the brakes, then flooring the throttle, then locking the brakes, then flooring the throttle, all while violently sawing the steering wheel.


And I probably won't watch a full race until March 20, when NASCAR visits the high-banked short track in Bristol, Tennessee.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

THE NEW SHAPE OF THE BRUINS

Between Nassau, NY and Ottawa, ONT, the Bruins changed quite a bit. They added a center and two defensemen. They lost a defenseman, a winger, and some draft picks. They've completely changed their Power Play unit, and now have an abundance of centers.

The big move was acquiring Tomas Kaberle for the 1st round pick from the Kessel deal. Kaberle is 5th among NHL defensemen with 35 assists, 22 of which have come on the Power Play (2nd among NHL defensemen in that category. Lidstrom has 23). He is the long sought after "puck moving" defenseman. In other words, he's not a screw-up when it comes to making plays with the puck. Not just the impressive, goal-scoring plays with a man advantage, but the simple neutral zone plays that the Bruins frequently struggle with.

Overshadowed by all this was the deal that sent Blake Wheeler and Mark Stuart to Atlanta, and brought Rich Peverley and Boris Valabik to Boston. Valabik is a tall (6' 7"), 25 year old Slovakian prospect, and will probably not dress for the big club.

But Peverley will play. He scored 22 goals last year, and he's scored 14 this season. That's 5 more than David Krejci. Peverley will compete with Kelly and Campbell for the 3rd and 4th line center spots. While Kelly brings "solid" play with good defense, and Campbell brings grit, Peverley brings a bit more flare.

The Bruins now have 6 centers for 4 spots. Seguin will probably not play center if he dresses. Krejci and Bergeron are #1 and #2 on the depth chart. Adding both Peverley and Kelly gives the Bruins some options, and some insurance.

The great thing about the Kelly and Paverley deals is that they didn't cost much. Kelly was acquired for a 2nd round pick. And for Paverley, the Bruins gave up a superfluous (word of the day, it means "being more than is necessary") defenseman who'd been scratched a few times (Stuart), and a winger who was doing nothing but occupying a roster spot (Wheeler). So for a modest price, the Bruins now have some decent flexibility for the 3rd and 4th center spots.

The Kaberle deal was a bit more pricey. He's an unrestricted free agent, and the Bruins' cap situation is hardly comfortable. So to give up a top 1st round pick for him is a steep price.

The power play is better. And the Bruins now have more role playing forwards. While the team is much improved, I still think the core isn't as strong as the elite teams in the NHL. There are simply too many "he can score 20 goals and play well on the penalty kill" guys on this team. There aren't enough "he changes the complexion of a game when he's on the ice" type of players. Lucic is a core guy. So is Bergeron. Same with Chara, Thomas, and now Kaberle. I'll say Marchand is, as well.

This team depends too much on the likes of Nathan Horton and Michael Ryder to get hot and score goals. They depend on Tim Thomas to be a freak of nature, and on Zdeno Chara to play 25 minutes a night, shutting down the opposition's top line. And while you can lean on the likes of Chara and Thomas, you can't depend on guys like Horton and Ryder.

If the Bruins were a tree, I'd say the trunk isn't yet strong enough. And some of the branches flap a bit too much in the breeze. But the real problem lies under the surface, in the roots. And by that, I mean Claude Julien. It was nice watching Kaberle play freely against Ottawa, before Julien had taught his overly sequential, A-B-C style to him. Before Julien could overcoach his skilled and creative player.

Julien has hamstrung this team long enough. After the Bruins are eliminated in the 2nd round of this year's playoffs, it will be time to eliminate him.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Friday, February 18, 2011

DAYTONA 500 PREVIEW

I used to love NASCAR. Then I sort of liked it. Now I can only enjoy it in very small doses. It's gotten boring, even for a fan of car racing. They used to be 3 hours long, now they're 5 hours. They used to be decided on the track, now they're won and lost in the pits. Super aggressive guys like Dale Earnhardt used to win titles, now it's bland, "consistent" drivers like Jimmie Johnson that dominate. The tracks used to be tight, half mile short-tracks. Now they're extra wide 2 mile cruise control courses.

Anyway, I'll still watch maybe 8 races this year. Probably not start to finish. I'll probably DVR them, then fast-forward through the endless cautions, maybe fast forward to make the cars go 400 miles per hour. I'll watch more Formula 1, which has much less passing, but the cars are cooler, the courses more exciting, the races shorter.


But if you have nothing to do Sunday, I do suggest watching a lap or two of the Daytona 500. In small doses, it can be interesting. Beer helps. Daytona is a high-speed traffic jam, there's always close racing somewhere. And at the very least, it gets people who say "they just go in circles," to realize how hard it is to be that good at driving. Even if they still find watching it to be dull.

I want to pick Dale Earnhardt Jr. to win this one. He's got a fast car. Unfortunately, he always finds a way to lose. I'm going to go with Regan Smith, who I know next to nothing about, have barely heard of, but who had a fast car in the qualifying races yesterday. And the Championship will be won by Kyle Busch.