Wednesday, September 29, 2010

WHAT WE LEARNED IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL*

Finally, we had a good weekend of shake ups and surprises. But there were also far too many bland blowouts. Teams should be allowed to face I-AA opponents in Week 1 and Week 1 only. And no team should be allowed to face two (Syracuse played Maine last week, and Colgate on Saturday). So here are the lessons...

1. MIAMI IS THE ONLY GOOD TEAM IN THE ACC

The Hurricanes blew through Pittsburgh, vanquishing their former Big East mates 31-3 on Thursday night. Meanwhile, the rest of the ACC didn't look so hot. Boston College has no offense. Georgia Tech fell to 2-2 and look very drab. Duke lost to Army. Maryland won, but let Florida International score 28. UNC did get a win, though. And I guess Florida State had a decent victory over Wake Forest. But Miami has actually gone out and performed. They're still my pick to win the ACC,

2. TENNESSEE SUCKS

There are very few "middle class" teams in the SEC. You're either Top 15 material, or you're awful. Tennessee needed overtime to beat UAB in Knoxville. That should count as a tie, or even a loss. The Vols play LSU in Baton Rouge next week, and that should be a laugher.

3. ARMY MIGHT MAKE A BOWL GAME

Every year, I root for Army to make it to a bowl game. They haven't been to one since 1996. But it'd be a great story. They already have 3 wins, so only need 3 more. As mentioned above, they beat Duke. They host VMI on October 30th, so that should be win #4. They might be able to beat Tulane. How sweet would it be, though, if win #6 came against Notre Dame in Yankee Stadium on November 20?

4. THE SEC WEST IS RIDICULOUS

In case you didn't know... I'd say that the 4 best teams in the SEC play in the West (Bama, Arkansas, LSU, Auburn). Florida might be ranked 7th, but their schedule has been soft to this point. They play Bama and LSU the next two weeks, and the SEC West will make some statements. Arkansas/Auburn is October 16th. LSU/Auburn is October 23rd. Alabama/LSU is November 6th. Auburn/Alabama is November 6th. LSU/Arkansas is November 27th. These games will all have SEC West, and therefore SEC, and therefore National Title implications.

5. NOTRE DAME REALLY SUCKS

The Irish might not make a bowl game. They're 1-3, and still have to play Pitt, Navy, Utah, and USC. They can't afford to lose at Boston College this upcoming Saturday night. And they just might, as BC usually has their number.

6. TEMPLE IS GOOD

I remember when Temple was purged from the Big East. They were a cupcake team. And although I have yet to see them play, they've been impressive. They beat UConn 30-16, then went to Happy Valley and made it a game against Penn State. They were 9-4 last year and went to a bowl game. I wouldn't be shocked if another 9 win season came again, maybe even a MAC title.

7. THE RED RIVER SHOOTOUT DOESN'T MEAN SO MUCH

Texas embarrassed themselves against UCLA, allowing 264 yards on the ground, and turning the ball over 5 times. The Longhorns may have been looking ahead to their matchup with Oklahoma. But UT also had turnover problems against Texas Tech, and that game was close until the 4th quarter. Meanwhile, Oklahoma is 4-0, but they've not been impressive. Wins are wins, but Cincinnati let the Sooners slide with a mediocre effort. The Bearcats stopped the run, Landry Jones makes arrogant passes, and if Cincy had been able to finish drives and hang on to the ball, they would have won.

Nebraska will win the Big XII. There, I said it.

8. NEVADA SHOULD BE FEARED
The biggest Nevada fans outside of DP and Reno are the good old boys behind the BCS. After a 27-13 victory over BYU in Provo, the Wolf Pack look poised to slice through the WAC, then challenge Boise State on November 26th. That game will be on the green field of Mackay Stadium in Reno.

9. GEORGIA SUCKS

UGA has been overrated for about a decade, and they always seem to get votes in the polls just because they're Georgia. But they really do suck. And to further emphasize how good the SEC West is, it was Mississippi State that beat them 24-12 on Saturday. The Bulldogs are 0-3 in SEC play.

10. WEST VIRGINIA IS THE ONLY GOOD TEAM IN THE BIG EAST

The Mountaineers kept it reasonable against LSU. They dropped from the rankings, but would be 26th in the AP poll, and 28th in the Coaches'. No other Big East team received a vote in either poll. Not even one vote.

Next week we'll learn who'll win the Big XII South (Teas vs. Oklahoma), we'll see just how much better the SEC West really is (Florida @ Alabama), we'll determine the favorite to win the Pac-10 (Stanford @ Oregon), and the Big Ten has two meetings between Top 25 teams.

SOX ELIMINATED




What's been unofficial yet well known has now become official. The Red Sox are out of it. The starry eyed optimists out there might point out that the Sox have the 4th best record in the AL, and the 8th best in baseball. They'll point out the games missed by Youkilis and Pedroia.

But would this team have made the playoffs if they hadn't been so ridden with injury? More importantly, would this team have done something in the playoffs?

The answer to question #1 is "maybe." The answer to question #2 is a resounding "no!"

"Run Prevention." That's what the 2010 Sox were supposedly built for. Yet they've scored 794 runs so far, essentially the same as the Rays, and will finish the season either 2nd or 3rd in both the AL and all of baseball. So the Sox scored runs.

They just allowed too many. 715 to be precise. Only four teams in the American League allowed more runs.

Pedroia missed about half a season. Youkilis missed about 50 games. Their absence did cost the Red Sox some runs scored. But I don't think the Sox would have allowed significantly fewer runs had they been around.

The Red Sox were 21st in team ERA, with 4.17. They also had the 4th most Blown Saves with 21. 4th most, in all of baseball. Only the Orioles, Marlins, and Diamondbacks had more.

Clay Buchholz was stunning this season, but even he lost wins due to the Sox' bullpen. Then there was John Lackey, who pitched like a #4 and not a good #3. Then there was Matsuzaka, who once again missed time with injury, and was once again forgettable when healthy. 9-6 with a 4.72 ERA. He made 24 starts, believe it or not. But only 10 of them were Quality Starts. Compare that to Lackey, who made 19.

And finally, there was the "Ace" Josh Beckett. Like in blackjack and poker, Aces go high and low. Very, very low. Beckett is 6-5 with a 5.77 ERA. Thank God the Sox locked down this hot commodity.

The problem was pitching. Pitching wins, pitching loses. It's good pitching that prevents runs, and bad pitching that prevents wins. Apart from two or three guys, the Sox had awful pitching. I remember the optimists touting the "best rotation in baseball" back in March and April. Morons.

And as if to strengthen my argument, the Yankees and Rays both won behind pitching last night. Sabathia went 8.1, allowing only 1 run off 3 hits. For the Rays, David Price tossed 8 shutout innings. Meanwhile, the Sox got a respectable 6 innings and 2 runs from Lackey, but also had 3 different relievers surrender a run.

By the way, Theo, the Sox are 21st in fielding percentage, with the 10th most errors.

Photo Credits:
AP Photo

Friday, September 24, 2010

ICHIRO MAKES HISTORY


Ichiro Suzuki did something no players has ever done. In the 5th inning of Seattle's 1-0 loss to Toronto, Ichiro hit a single to center. It was his 200th hit of the season. That makes 10 straight years that Ichiro's recorded 200 hits. Nobody's ever done that. Pete Rose had 10 seasons with 200 hits, but not in a row. Ty Cobb had nine 200 hit seasons.

For my money, Ichiro's a Hall of Famer. Not only does he have this record, but he's a 10 time All-Star, won the MVP in '01, along with Rookie of the Year. 9 Gold Gloves, 3 Silver Sluggers, a .331 career average, .376 OBP, and 382 stolen bases.

He's got more than 2,200 hits right now. He's 36, so probably has 4 good years left in him. He has a decent chance to reach 3,000 hits. That's impressive considering he didn't play ball in this country until he was 27.

Imagine if he started playing here when he was 22, though. He might be at 3,200 hits instead of 2,200. And we might be saying he had a shot at 4,256 hits (Rose's record).

Thursday, September 23, 2010

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS: WEEK 4*

I'm 7-6 on the season, but I'm going to start something different for this week. I'm going to pick based on the spread. I'm taking the spreads from VegasInsider.com.

Thursday - 7:30 PM - ESPN
#19 Miami Hurricanes @ Pitt Panthers.
I'm taking the Canes -3.5. Pittsburgh just doesn't have the athleticism to keep up with Miami. Now, The U is very inconsistent, and I wouldn't take this pick to the bank. But I'll take inconsistent athleticism with a 3.5 point spread any day of the week. Even Thursday.



Friday - 8:00 PM - ESPN
#4 TCU Horned Frogs @ SMU Mustangs
I'll take Texas Christian -17.5 against a crappy SMU team. The Hornded Frogs can score some points, but more importantly, they don't allow many. All they'll need is 31+ from their offense in order to comfortably cover.



The remainder of these games are on Saturday...

3:30 PM - Big Ten Network
Temple Owls @ #23 Penn State Nittany Lions
I don't know much about Temple. I know they beat UConn. And I know PSU hasn't been stellar. But the spread is only 13 points, and Penn State's at home. PSU -13.



3:30 PM - CBS
#1 Alabama Crimson Tide @ #10 Arkansas Razorbacks
This spread opened at 4, then it increased to 7. Considering this is in Fayeteville, I'm going to have to take Arkansas +7.5. Anything less, especially 4, and I'd take Alabama. The Tide will win this game, just not by 8 points.



3:30 PM - NBC
#16 Stanford @ Notre Dame
Stanford -4.5. Notre Dame must have a lot of fans, because it's a joke that they're less than a touchdown underdogs. I know you have a California team playing in South Bend, but you also have a crappy team playing in South Bend that goes by the name of Notre Dame.



7:45 PM - ESPN
#12 South Carolina Gamecocks @ #17 Auburn Tigers
Every part of my brain is telling me to take Auburn, at home, on a Saturday night. They've proven they can win close games, and they've done nothing much wrong so far. But my gut is going with South Carolina +3.



8:00 PM - ABC
#24 Oregon State Beavers @ #3 Boise State Broncos
I'm taking OSU +18. I think this game will feature lots of offense from both sides. Oregon State will never be a threat, but they'll be within 2 touchdowns at the final whistle.



9:00 PM - ESPN2
#22 West Virginia Mountaineers @ #15 LSU Tigers
I'm taking WVU +9.5. Granted, it's a night game in Baton Rouge. Granted, the Mountaineers are "Big East powers," which is like a country bragging about being a "Central African power." It's just not that impressive. That being said, WVU is athletic, and should at least stay in this game.



10:30 PM
#5 Oregon Ducks @ Arizona State Sun Devils
I'm taking Oregon -11. How could you not? I know it's early, and their opponents have been crappy, but the Ducks have outscored opponents by an average of 58 points per game. So I'm taking them -11 against a poor team.

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

WHAT DID WE EXPECT?


I'm not surprised Kevin Faulk is hurt. And I'll make a not-so-bold prediction: he won't be the last Patriots RB to go down this year. It should be expected when your RB Corps collects more Social Security than it takes up cap space. Either 33 year old Sammy Morris or 34 year old Fred Taylor will be next. These guys have hundreds of carries, and thousands of hits under their belt. It's Week 3 of a very long, and soon to be very cold season.

The Patriots will have to endure another major injury at this position, and they can only blame themselves. They need to get youth at this position, and get it in the form of somebody more talented than BJG Ellis.

But Faulk was more than a runningback. He was a playmaker. That's a commodity the Patriots don't have much of. He caught passes, picked up blitzes, and he did so consistently. The Pats might be able to pick up a Larry Johnson, or some other token back to fill in the depth chart, but Kevin Faulks are one in a billion.

SOX CONTINUE SLOW TORTURE


The Red Sox season has been sad, and it's finishing in a sad way. I don't mean like funeral sad, I'm talking lame, weak, wimpy sad. Last Friday, I wrote about the very slim but still very real chance that the Sox had to make the playoffs. They had the Blue Jays and O's coming to town, and all they needed to do was win those games.

And if the Sox had swept Toronto, and won the last 2 against Baltimore, they'd be 2.5 games behind the Rays. That'd be with 11 games left, and that's a very manageable deficit to overcome.

But as it is, the Sox are now 8-9 against the O's on the season. And that just makes me sad.

And Papelbon, good luck getting a big fat contract with an ERA up near 4.

John Lackey faces Kevin Millwood tonight. Millwood is 3-15, which probably means the Sox will give him win #4.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

WHAT WE LEARNED IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL*

Saturday was almost a cataclysmic day for some powerhouses. There were close calls and near misses from Athens to Corvallis. But for the most part, things went as planned Saturday. For the most part. Here are the lessons:

1. NEBRASKA HAS ALREADY WON THE BIG XII NORTH

The Cornhuskers have yet to play a Conference game, but there's nobody in the Big XII North to challenge them. Kansas lost to Southern Miss on Saturday. Missouri barely beat SD State. There's just nobody in that division on the same level as NU.

2. CAL, UCONN, CINCINNATI, AND OLE MISS SUCK

These teams weren't expected to be contenders, but they were expected to be good. Cal lost to Nevada. UConn fell to 1-2, losing to lowly Temple. Cincinnati only managed 19 points in a loss to NC State. Ole Miss couldn't take care of Vanderbilt at home.

3. THE SEC IS BETTER THAN THE BIG TEN

I can't believe there was a text message poll about this during some game. What makes the SEC so great is its depth. SEC teams face relentless schedules. After Ohio State, there's a big dropoff in quality in the Big Ten. Iowa lost to Arizona, and Wisconsin barely beat Arizona State at home. ASU sucks. No excuse for that. Michigan very easily could have lost to Massachusetts. Then there's crap teams like Minnesota, Illinois, Indiana, Northwestern, and Purdue.

4. WHAT HELPS DENARD ROBINSON, WILL ULTIMATELY HURT HIM

241 yards passing, 104 yards rushing, 2 passing TDs, 1 rushing TD. Denard Robinson was once again almost the entire Michigan offense. And while that boosts his Heisman candidacy, the fact that his supporting cast got exposed against UMass may ultimately cost him the Heisman. When Michigan plays legit teams, Robinson might throw for 250, rush for 100, and lose. And if Michigan doesn't contend, Robinson's Heisman campaign takes a big hit.

5. MARK INGRAM IS A BEAST

151 yards and 2 touchdowns for Ingram as he returned to Bama's lineup. In their 62-13 molestation of Duke, the Tide amassed 315 yards just on the ground. They had 626 yards of total offense, and held Duke to 302. Alabama goes through the gauntlet the next few weeks. @ Arkansas on the 25th, vs. Florida on 10/2, then @ South Carolina on October 9th.

6. SOMETHING'S UP WITH OKLAHOMA

Oklahoma has had close calls with Utah State and now Air Force. The Sooners haven't run the ball as well as they should, and their defense has been mediocre. They face Texas in two weeks, so there's time to work the kinks out.

7. OREGON IS SILLY

I'm not overly impressed with Oregon, at least not as much as the experts are. I do think they deserve their #5 ranking, but beating Portland State 69-0 isn't as impressive as beating Stanford 14-13. That being said, Oregon is averaging 63 points a game (1st in country), and allowing 4.3 points per game (1st).

8. THE POLL VOTERS ARE STUPID
Everyone complains about "computers picking the National Champion." But at least the computers (actually, it's a math equation devised by human beings) are unbiased and are not complete and utter morons. How is it that James Madison got 8 votes in the AP Poll? I would love to see the full ballots of the morons who voted for JMU, just to see who else they had. And how does Texas get a #1 vote instead of Alabama or even Ohio State? Then in the Coach's poll, Nebraska got a #1 vote. Somebody actually reasoned that Nebraska has proven they're better than Bama.

Monday, September 20, 2010

WHAT HAPPENED?


What happened Sunday? The Patriots made Mark Sanchez look like a legitimate NFL quarterback. And on the other side of the ball, the Pats' offense played worse when Darrelle Revis left the game.

I'd rip Darius Butler, but I think the Jets abused him enough on Sunday. It got so bad that he resorted to blatant pass interference, not even trying to disguise things.

I wish I could tell you that Darius Butler fought the good fight, and the Jets let him be. I wish I could tell you that. But the NFL is no fairytale world.

Did anybody else see Butler push himself off of Braylon Edwards on that 2 point conversion play?

The Pats' defense was thoroughly exposed on Sunday. In Week 1, the Bengals didn't seem to have a strategy or gameplan for playing the Pats' D. The Jets came prepared. More importantly, they adjusted. They started with long passes and inside running. That didn't work, so they took short passes, and ran both outside and inside. When the Patriots got 4 and 5 man pressure, Sanchez looked like a lost child. But when that pressure didn't come (or the Patriots tried blitzes with too many men), the Jets moved the ball down field with ease.

That being said, the biggest defensive star on the Pats' is a toss-up between Wilfork and Mayo. On offense, there's Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, two touted rookie TEs, and a solid O-line. The defense may have lost this game for the Pats, but it was the offense that didn't go out and win it.

And it starts with the QB. While Brady looked extremely comfortable in the pocket, and eluded pressure, his throws weren't as precise as he's capable of. He overthrew Moss with a deep ball that wound up as an interception. He underthrew Gronkowski on what would have been a key 1st down late in the 3rd.

But what was the gameplan? The Pats came out and ran the ball well with Taylor. They were hitting Moss with underneath stuff (although Moss let a few get past him), and using Welker on some intermediate routes. Then they lost patience with running the ball. The 2 minute drill before halftime saw Aaron Hernandez make an insanely great catch, and run. Then Moss had the catch of the day in the end zone.

Then in the 2nd half, Brady looked awful. The Pats' first drive of the 3rd quarter ended with an interception, which kind of acted like a punt. The Jets scored a touchdown to tie it. Then Brady had that underthrown pass to Gronk. Brady's pick in the 4th was kind of freakish, but why is that pass being attempted at all? 2nd and 3, why are you throwing a duck jumpball to Moss to get 5 yards? It's one thing if that's in the end zone, where the reward is worth the risk.

I'm not going to let Welker and Moss off the hook, either. Welker bobbled a 3rd down pass that would have given the Pats a 1st down. And Moss let a few catchable passes slip through his fingers. The Big Three on offense simply did not perform. The o-line performed. The d-line performed. The RBs and TEs performed. The secondary didn't perform, but they don't take up the same cap space as Brady-Moss-Welker, do they?

Aaron Hernandez caught 6 passes for 101 yards. Combined, Moss and Welker caught 8 passes for 79 yards. Moss and Welker were targeted 17 total times. Some of those incompletions/interceptions were Brady's fault. Some were their fault. Some were both Brady and their fault.

Oh, and Gostkowski needs to make field goals. This is the NFL, 37 yards should be a standard kick. The delay of game penalty that made it 37 yards was a good example of the Patriots' lack of focus, but it could have easily been overcome by the kicker who just signed an extension.

The schedule gets easier as the Pats host the Bills on Sunday. But they'd better get their offense in order before travelling to division leading Miami in October.

Photo Credit:
Getty Images