SERIES PREVIEW: CLEVELAND

The Cleveland Indians are about where the Red Sox are. The Sox are 38-30, Cleveland is 37-30. The Indians are also in the midst of a very succesful home stand. They swept both Colorodo and Arizona. They've won their last 9 games in a row, and 12 of their last 13.

The Indians do not have as potent an offense as we do. We have scored 362 runs (5.32 a game) and they have scored 288 (4.30 a game). However, they have allowed fewer runs. The Red Sox have allowed 328 runs (4.82 a game) and Cleveland has given up a mere 258 runs (3.85 a game).

The pitching matchups look like this:

Game 1 - CC Sabathia vs. David Wells
Sabathia is having his typical average year. He is 5-3 with a 3.91 ERA. Opponents are batting .256 against him. He is stirking out about 6 batters per every 9 innings. He is throwing just over 101 pitches a start. His WHIP is an unspectacular 1.28. In 12 starts he's allowed only 6 homers. In his last start against Colorodo, he got rocked (pun intended). He went 3.1 innings allowing 6 runs off of 8 hits. The start before that, however, he pitched a gem. He went 8 against the Giants allowing only 2 runs. Overrall, the Red Sox hitters are 25/87 against Sabathia. That's .287, which isn't that bad. They've got 5 homers in those 87 at-bats which is solid. The big matchup against Sabathia is Ramirez. Hopefully he'll be healthy because he owns Sabathia. He is 6 for 11 against him with 3 HRs. If those numbers were multiplied to reflect a season's worth of At-Bats (500), Manny would have 136 Homers. Unfortunately, Damon is a mere 2 for 11 against Sabathia and Ortiz is 2 for 12. Olerud is 5 for 15 and Millar is 3 for 7 so I think Millar should play first unless he has to play the outfield for Manny.

Wells is also having an average year. 5-4 with a 4.54 ERA and a nice WHIP of 1.16. Wells has gotten into trouble because of the homerun ball. He has allowed 9 in only 72 innings. Lately though, he's been amazing. In his last start he went 7 scoreless, 1 hit innings. In his start before that, he went 8 scoreless. Before that he allowed 4 runs, but still went 7. In fact, he's pitched into the 7th inning in each of his last 5 starts. Some members of the Indians have seen alot of David. Overrall the Indians are 33 for 111 (.297) against him. However, only 8 of their hitters have faced him. Gonzalez is 18 for 63 (.286) against Wells with 5 HRs. Coco Crisp is 4 for 7, Johnny Peralta is 3 for 5. Casey Blake is 2 for 10, and Ben Broussard is 2 for 9.

Both teams have had a decent amount of success at the plate against the pitcher they will be facing. This game should have a decent amount of offense. My prediction is the sox will win it 7-5.

Game 2 - Kevin Millwood vs. Bronson Arroyo
Millwood appears to be having both a good season and a bad one. His ERA is a nice 2.95 but his record is 2-4. He allows about a hit per inning and a walk every 4 innings. He hasn't given up too many HRs. In his last start, he was coming off the DL with a groin injury and pitched only 5 innings. He didn't allow a run though. He threw only 85 pitches but should be on a count of about 100 for this start. Renteria has some nice numbers against this guy. Edgar is 12 for 31 (.387). He's got 2 doubles and 2 homers against Millwood. Millar is 7 for 22, Mueller is 4 for 18. Varitek is 3 for 9 and Nixon is 0 for 8.

Bronson's overrall numbers have the appearance of mediocrity but that is because it is a combination of brilliant starts and starts that were not so brilliant. Arroyo is 5-3 with a 4.26 ERA. His WHIP is a decent 1.24. He had been going through a tough stretch until his last start when he started using the fastball as more of a feature pitch. He went 7, striking out 8 and allowing a mere run. His three losses came out of the 4 starts before his last one. When he is on, he is literally unbeatable this year. The Indians have very little experience against him. They are 6 for 21 off Arroyo.

Considering Cleveland's lack of experience against Arroyo and how Bronson has pitched when he "has it," I think the Red Sox should win this one. I don't think they'll really get to Millwood all that much. I think we shall win by a score of 4-2 or something along those lines.

Game 3 - Cliff Lee vs. Wade Miller
Cliff Lee is a 27 year old lefty. Already, I'm worried about this game. Lee is 8-3 this season with an ERA of 3.33. He has given up 9 homeruns but his WHIP is exactly the same as Arroyo's. his last start was unimpressive. He went 5, allowing 4 runs but he still got the win. his starts appear to vary from either being 7 innings allowing only 2 runs or so, to being 5 innings allowing 3+ runs. The Sox haven't seen much of him. Manny is 2 for 6 off him with a pair of doubles. Lee has a good variety of pitches. He throws a 4 seam fastball, a cut fastball, curveball, slider, and changeup. His fastball is usually 90-92 MPH but can be faster or slower. The Red Sox will probably be taking alot of pitches because he does have control trouble from time to time and he gets his pitch count up.

Wade Miller has been struggling this year. He is 2-2 with an ERA of 5.16. his WHIP is 1.39 and he's walked 19 men in just over 45 innings. That isn't very good. Miller went 6 in his last start, allowing the Pirates to get 4. His start before was a 7 inning, 5 ER outing against the Cubs. miller's been able to go deeper into games now but he is still allowing a good amount of runs. The Indians have 70 ABs against Miller but only from 4 players. Jose Hernandez is 6 for 23 off Wade. Aaron F. Boone is 8 for 18 off him with a pair of HRs. Ronnie Belliard is 4 for 16. Alex Cora is 2 for 10 and Juan Gonzalez is 1 for 3.

The Indians should win this game. Their pitcher is a young lefty who will keep Damon and Nixon from hitting. He's also shut down Ortiz in limited at-bats. Jay Payton should definately start this game. Francona might also consider starting Mirabelli at DH because he eats lefthanded pitching for breakfast. I still don't see how we win this game unless we get Lee's pitch count up and we can get to the bullpen. I think we lose this game 5-2.

Bullpen vs. Bullpen
Getting to the bullpen against Cleveland won't be as fun as getting to the bullpen against Kansas City or Tampa Bay. They've actually got some really good pitchers out there. Their closer is Bob Wickman who is 20 for 23 in save opportunities. His ERA is 2.67. Setting him up is veteran lefty Arthur Rhodes who has an ERA of 0.95 with 11 holds and a WHIP of 0.88. In 28.1 IP, he's struck out 27 batters. Apart from Manny, the Red Sox haven't succeeded much against him. Setting up Wickman with Rhodes is Bob Howry with 9 holds and an ERA of 3.03 (why can't we get guys like this?) There's also lefty Scott Saurbeck (3.26 ERA), righty Rafael Betencourt (2.56 ERA), and righty Matt Miller (1.35 ERA).

We all know about the Red Sox bullpen. Foulke has been doing well as of late. Timlin has been solid all year as a set-up man. Myers has been a great situational lefty. Apart from them, there is no dependable arm out there. If any team has any late inning heroics at the plate, it will be the Indians.


What's wrong with this picture? Well, normally on a Formula 1 starting grid there are about 20 cars waiting to start. If you hadn't heard, 14 of the 20 cars at the United States Grand Prix in Indianapolis didn't start the race because their Michelin tires were deemed unsafe. So the 140,000 fans in attendance and the millions watching on TV around the world were treated with 74 laps of practice for Bridgestone tires. I thought it was a shame because Formula 1 racing is a nice sport and is above any American auto racing in term of technology, skill, and international prestige. Michael Schumacher, last year's champion, made about $60M last year from racing and endorsements. He recently outbid both Brad Pitt and George Clooney for a lakeside house. Schumacher won this race in his Ferrari but the big loser of the day was Formula 1 who aggravated some of their few American fans. I think this guy's got it right:

FLAWLESS VICTORY

Matt Clement has been amazing this season and that continued today. The bats came alive too. Bill Mueller continued his hitting going 2 for 2 with a pair of RBI. Jay Payton continues to prove why he deserves at least a little bit more playing time with his 2 for 3 day. Nixon did well in the leadoff spot going 2 for 4. With no Johnny Damon, and no Manny Ramirez, and Trot Nixon starting on the bench, the Sox put together 8 runs.

This was the type of game to bring Embree, Mantei, and Halama. not yesterday.

Clement was absolutely the Man of the Game. He went 7 scoreless allowing only 3 hits and a solitary walk. He struck out 9.

The Red Sox fly out to Cleveland to begin a short, 6 game road trip to nearby cities. Wells faces Sabathia on Monday. Arroyo goes against the struggling Kevin Millwood Tuesday night. Wade Miller goes against 8-3 Cliff Lee on Wednesday. Then its on to Philly and back home again.

From now until August 5, the Red Sox will play two series at home, then two on the road, then two at home, et cetera. The schedule this year is really poorly made.

PAINFUL LOSS

This was one of those typical Red Sox losses. An unfamiliar pitching staff that shuts us down, and a bullpen that crumbles. Throw in some questionable decisions by the manager and you've got yourself a Boston Red Sox loss.

I'm going to start with the pitching. Embree, Mantei, and Halama are not dependable pitchers. They aren't the guys you want to have in a 0-0 games unless no-one else is available. Theo needs to find replacements for these guys and Tito needs to stop using these guys in big situations. Francona's logic for bringing in Embree to a 0-0 game in the 8th: "I wanted to give him some work." Well, have him work in the bullpen though. Why would you use a pitcher with a 7.00 ERA in the 8th inning of a tied game? At first I thought maybe Francona was thinking that this game might go extras so he needed to get the most out of his entire bullpen. Then Embree was pulled after hitting a guy and getting 1 out from a sacrifice.

Francona went from Embree (7.00 ERA at the start of the game) to Mantei (5.64 ERA). A small improvement but not exactly that great of a pitcher to go out there in a 0-0 game in the 8th inning with the go ahead run in scoring position and 1 out. Mantei, of course gave up the double that gave the Pirates the lead. Humberto Cota, who got the double, is batting .260 this season. Mantei walked Jack Wilson and then Francona's brain returned as he replaced Mantei with Myers. Myers, who along with Timlin has been dependable, got a fly out which ended the inning.

The next inning, in a 1-0 game, in the 9th inning, against the top of the Pirates lineup, Francona decided to use John Halama. John F----- Halama? Why? Why not Timlin? Why not Myers? Why not even Foulke? Why would you use the frigging mop up guy in a 1-0 game? Here is what Halama allowed:

Base on balls
Fielder's choice
Single
Single, run scored
Hit by pitch
Bases loaded fielder's choice (if not for a great paly by Bellhorn, the game would have been 3-0)
Fly out

Going along with the bullpen's ineffectiveness and Francona's confusing moves, the offense was terrible. Only Payton had 2 hits. The Red Sox 1-5 hitters went a combined 3 for 19 (.158) Edgar Renteria has his typical 1 for 4 day with a single and an error. This guy, who was highly touted for his defense, has 12 errors. Edgar is 2nd in Major League Baseball in the Errors category.

The Man of the Game is Humberto Cota who went 3 for 5 with 2 singles and a double. His double turned out to be the game winning hit. He also caught a shutout.

The Bitch-Goat shall be divided thusly:
Embree: 0.2 - 0.1 IP, ER
Mantei: 0.2 - 0.1 IP, inherited runner scored
Halama: 0.1 - IP, ER
Francona: 0.2 - Weird decisions
Millar: 0.1 - 0 for 4, 5 LOB
Damon: 0.1 - 1 for 5, 4 LOB
Bellhorn: 0.1 - 0 for 3, 3 LOB

The Orioles beat the Rockies 7-2, the Yankees beat the Cubs 8-1.

Kip Wells vs. Matt Clement in what could be a good pitcher's duel. The Sox have seen more of former White Sox pitcher Kip Wells than any other starter in this series. Renteria is 6 for 20 with a HR. Bellhorn is 4 for 10. Ortiz is 3 for 12. Damon is 1 for 8. The Pirates have seen a good amount of Clement but only Tike Redman has great numbers against him. He's 6 for 13 with a couple of doubles. I wouldn't be shocked if Ramirez didn't start considering it is a day game after a night game.

AAARRRRRR!!!! SOX HOLD OFF PIRATES OF THE THREE RIVERS

I've got to hand it to the Pittsburgh Pirates. They played a pretty good game. They capitalized on a Damon miscue in the 1st to score 3 runs. They pulled out the double steal and appeared to baffle Varitek and the Sox. Thankfully, the Sox were able to get the lead back with a 3 run shot off the bat of Mark Bellhorn. After this, the Sox were never behind. The Pirates were able to tie the game up at 4-4 and at 5-5, but Damon hit a single up the middle with the bases loaded to win the game. By the way, Damon is 6 for 13 this season with the bases loaded. The Red Sox improve to 21-9 in Fenway Park. That's .700 ball. If the Red Sox keep this pace up, and go .500 on the road, they'll win about 96 games which should be enough to put them in close contention for a playoff spot.

Miller didn't pitch as well as Clement, Wells, and Arroyo did against the Big Dead Machine earlier this weak, but he pitched well enough to keep the Sox in the game. His control wasn't good early but he seemed to settle down. Unfortunately, he was not very efficient and got his pitch count up early and could only go 6. But it was enough.

The pen wasn't lights out, but they did enough to keep the Sox in the game. Foulke was impressive, pitching a perfect top of the 9th with 2 strikeouts.

The Sox offense was truly a team effort. Every starter had a hit. Manny, Millar, and Mueller all seem to be hitting now. This means our middle of the lineup is once again VERY threatening and the bottom of the order will be able to complement them and add more runs to our offensive efforts.

Jason Varitek proved why he has a C on his sweater, I mean jersey. He blocked the plate in the 8th, keeping the game tied. He laid down a bunt in the 9th that moved Youk over to 3rd and allowed him to reach on an error. (I say he was bunting for a basehit with the 3rd baseman so deep and the hesitation to drop down the bunt). Tek does alot at the plate with his bat and with his game-calling, but he also does small things.

The Man of the Game is Billy Mueller who went 2 for 3 with a double, a triple, a walk, a run, and 2 RBI.

The Orioles lost to the Rockies 2-1, and the Yankees came back to beat the Cubs 9-6. The Yankees couldn't break the tie between them and Toronto as the Jays beat the Brewers 9-5. I think I speak for the entire AL East when I say that I wish we could face the NL Central more often.

Wakefield goes against his former team on Saturday night as he opposes Dave Williams. This is how little the Red Sox have seen of Dave Williams. The Sox player with the second most ABs against Williams is Curt Schilling with 4. Renteria is 1 for 5, Bellhorn is 1 for 2 with a homer, Mueller is 0 for 2, and Payton is 0 for 1. Meanwhile, only former Indian and Twin Matt Lawton has seen much of Wakefield. We'll see if Doug Mirabelli's touch with Wakefield continues.

SCHILLING THROWS OFF BULLPEN MOUND

The good news so far with Schilling is that he hasn't experienced any setbacks at any stage of his rehab. The Red Sox and Curt are really taking their time with this rehab which I think is the right thing to do. We need a healthy Schilling in September and possibly October. That is the most important thing with Schilling. Plus, if he has any setbacks, we might never get him back. It is of paramount importance that he progresses slowly.

I FOUGHT THE LAW, AND I WON
Time for a little NFL stuff. Ty Law still doesn't have a home. This isn't too surprising considering that he is 31, wants top dollar, and is recovering from a broken foot. Why would any NFL team take the chance and risk that much cap money? It'll be interesting to see where Law ends up. I think we can still win without Law. We've won alot of games when he has been injured. Gay, Samuel, and Poole are all decent and the defensive schemes we've had made them look even better.

RICHARD WANTS TO SEE MORE MONEY
Richard Seymour has been a holdout from Pats mini-camp. Seymour feels he is being under paid. He still has 2 years left on a 6 year deal. He's been one of the best defensive linemen in the NFL, he's still young, he's a team leader, and he is the key to running the 3-4 defense which the Pats have thrived with. Without him taking up a double team, the defensive line just isn't all that effective. I'm sure Belichick will do what is best for the team, but I think Seymour is one of the individual players we cannot win without, or at least without a replacement.

CONVINCING WIN

The two wins the Red Sox had against Cincinatti coming into last night's game were not very convincing to me. Two pitchers with ERAs above 7 started for the Reds and the Sox were able to hit off them. The two hottest pitchers we had were able to shut down Cincinatti's offense. This 6-1 win, however, was very convincing. The Red Sox were able to score off a good young pitcher and a struggling starter was able to shut down the Reds' offense.

The middle of the order is clicking. Ortiz, Manny, Nixon, and Millar are all hitting. This means that Renteria and Damon need only to get on base. Then guys in the bottom of the order like Varitek and Mueller can knock in the big hitters as well.

The Man of the Game is Bronson Arroyo who went 7 innings and allowed only 1 earned run. He struck out 8 on his way to recording his 5th win of the season. If he, Wells, and Clement continue to pitch like this, our rotation suddenly doesn't look so bad.

The Red Sox will welcome the Pittsburgh Pirates to Fenway Park for the first time ever this weekend. The Pirates lost to the Yankees tonight but they should have won. The Yankees were the beneficiary of a bad call on a fielder's choice that should have been a game ending double play. Instead, the 9th inning was kept alive, the Yankees tied the game, and then won it off a Steroid Shot by Jason Giambi. The Red Sox will send Miller, Wake, and Clement to the mound this weekend against Pittsburgh.

ONE HIT WONDER

Ever since the 1st inning at Yankee Staidum a few weeks ago, Wells has been nearly solid. The Reds have a pretty good offense and Wells was able to combine with Timlin and Foulke to allow only 1 hit.

Predictably, the Red Sox were able to hit off the Reds staff last night and the night before. Things may change tonight as the Sox face Aaron Harang. Only two guys on the Sox have faced him alot. Olerud is 3 for 10 against him with a double. Renteria is 1 for 8. Manny is 1 for 3 but that 1 hit is a homerun. Manny could be 2 for 3 off him but Terrence Long robbed him of a homer a few years back. The Sox usually struggle against guys we haven't seen that much of and this is a guy we haven't seen that much of. Our starters only have 20 combined ABs against him.

The Man of the Game for Monday's 10-3 victory is Manny Ramirez who went 2 for 5 with 3 RBI and 2 runs scored. He had a double and a homer.

The Man of the Game for Tuesday's 7-0 win is David Wells who went 7 scoreless, one-hit innings. He did uncharacteristically walk 2 men but I think we should let that slide.

FISK'S FOUL POLE?
When I first heard about this story, I was a little confused. It seemed kind of silly to officially name something with a name that no-one uses. Peskey's Pole and the Green Monster weren't officially named. The nicknames developed naturally. A few people started calling them these things and it caught on. This whole pole business is another story. I think the ownership is trying to create more mystique at Fenway Park than there really is. I doubt they would be doing this if they were still unclear as to whether or not they were staying at Fenway,

Don't you think it's kind of sad to be honoring a man who hit a homerun in a World Series in which we choked horribly to lose? Nothing against Fisk, but the 1975 Red Sox choked and lost Game 7 of the series. I don't think we should be remembering this fondly.

THE RICH WILL GET RICHER
The New York Yankees are going to have their own new stadium. It will have three times as many luxury boxes as Yankee Stadium. The city will be building larger parking facilities, a new train station, and a ferry terminal. The way the Yankees are paying for the stadium will result in lower revenue sharing payments to MLB. The Yankees will no longer have to cut the city of New York in on staidum revenues. The Yankees will be able to sell state-of-the art luxury boxes at very high prices. They're going to be able to spend alot more money. The luxury boxes alone will bring them millions of dollars more each year. Meanwhile, we'll be in Fenway and the ownership will be trying to scrounge another $50,000 by adding rows of seats right up to the catcher and umpire.

62 DOWN, 100 TO GO

The Red Sox have played their first 62 games, going 33-29. The start of the season is officially over. These are the dog days. They will soon be followed by the make-or-break days of late August and September.

In order for the Red Sox to even have a shot at making the playoffs, either through the division or the wild card, they'll need to win at least 90 games. This means going 57-43 over the next 100. Realistically, they'll need to win more than 95 games to have a good shot at a playoff spot. This means a 62-38 clip for the last 100. In order to assure themselves a playoff spot, the Sox will need to win 100 games. This would require a 67-33 pace. This team is capable of all these things. They're also capable of going 50-50.

The Sox have 55 home games left and 45 road games. They have 13 left with Tampa Bay, and 10 left with the Yankees, Orioles, and Blue Jays. They have 7 left with the White Sox and Angels. They have 6 with Texas, Cleveland, Kansas City, Minnesota, and Detroit. They have 4 left with Oakland. They have 3 more against Philly, Cincy, and Pittsburgh.

The way I figure it, the Red Sox should be able to win up to 73 of these games. That is what I say their maximum would be.

1975 WORLD SERIES REMATCH
The last time the Reds were at Fenway was Game 7 of the 1975 World Series. It is amazing how little attention this game gets. It seems like everyone knows everything about Game 6, but few people know that this game was pretty painful. The Sox got to Cincinatti starter Don Gullett for 3 in the 3rd inning. However, much like Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS, the Sox couldn't add to their lead against their opponent's bullpen and their opponent was able to gradually chip away. Tony Perez hit a 2 run shot off Bill Lee in the 6th. Roger Moret releived Lee in the 7th, allowing a hit and 2 walks in only 0.1 IP. After 7, the game was tied 3-3. Ken Griffey walked in the 9th, got sacrificed to 2nd, and then moved to 3rd on a groundout. Pete Rose was walked but Joe Morgan got an RBI basehit to give the Reds a 4-3 lead. The Red Sox went down in order in the 9th to end the game and the series, losing both 4-3. This game seems as painful as the 1978 playoff, or 2003's game 7, yet it doesn't get any publicity.

Here's a weird thing about the interleague schedule this year. Every team the Red Sox have played, except Atlanta, have been World Series opponents in the past. The Sox played the Cardinals in 1946, 1967, and 2004. They played the Cubs in 1918. They played Cincinatti in 1975. They played Pittsburgh in 1903. They played Philadelphia in1915.

Here are the matchups for the series:
Monday: Eric Milton vs. Matt Clement
Tuesday: Luke Hudson vs. David Wells
Wednesday: Aaron Harang vs. Bronson Arroyo

The Red Sox should win the first two games with ease as both pitchers have ERAs above 7. Plus, Clement has pitched well except for his last start and Wells has been the ace of the staff lately. The final game should be difficult. If Arroyo gets back to where he was in April, it should be a fine pitcher's duel. Harang is perhaps their best pitcher. Plus, he's the type of young pitcher that domiantes us for some reason. I think we'll win the first two with ease, then lose a close one to end the series.

THE LINEUP LAST NIGHT
During the ESPN broadcast, Joe Morgan was whining and complaining about the Red Sox using 4 non-starters in the lineup last night. If you ask me, these replacements weren't that bad to use. Mueller hasn't had a day off in a while despite coming off knee surgeries and Youkilis has shown he can hit. Ortiz isn't exactly a great first baseman and Millar has a .417 average against Rusch and being in an NL ballpark, Francona could only use 1 of them. Then Payton plays for Nixon against the lefthander Glendon Rusch. Finally, Mirabelli returns to his role as backup catcher. I know I've given Francona flak for replacing people in the lineup but none of these moves really bothers me. And look at the results. Combined they went 9 for 18 with 6 singles, a double and a homerun. They scored 5 of the Red Sox 8 runs.

The problem with the team isn't Francona. He's made some questionable moves but given what he has to work with in the bullpen, the inconsistencies in the rotation, and the inconsistencies in the lineup, I'd say he has done a decent job thus far.

WE STILL HAVE THE PATRIOTS

Nice stuff.

WAKE UP CALL

As bad as this roadtrip was, it easily could have been worse. This was the first time in a long time that Wakefield has looked this good. Hopefully he'll be able to go on a tear like he has in years past.

A few good things that it was nice seeing, apart from a solid Wakefield:

Johnny Damon hit for power with a double and a homer. Last year he had 20 homeruns and this year he only had 2 going into the 62nd game.

Kevin Youkilis getting some playing time. He went 3 for 5 with his first homer and a double. Good to see the arm hasn't been affected by Reyes...yet.

Good to see Kevin Millar not looking like a fool.

Seeing Manny Ramirez hit a homerun after a long drought.

Doug Mirabelli back on the team. He is an improvement over Wooten and Shoppach and he allows Varitek to stay fresh.

Seeing the bullpen go 2 scoreless innings allowing only one hit.

The Man of the Game is Wakefield who went 7, allowed only a run and only 4 hits. He went 1 for 4 at the plate with an RBI. He didn't walk anybody and only threw 86 pitches. Had the score been tighter, he probably could have gone 9.

Interleague play continues as the Sox host the Reds and Pirates. They should win 5 of these games. They should be doing alot of things though.