Tuesday, July 24, 2007

ONE NIL


The Red Sox continued their winning streak with a nice 1-0 victory over the Indians. Maybe it's just because I'm a soccer fan, but I love 1-0 wins. They're exciting, nerve-wracking, and very satisfying. But you'd still prefer your team to win games without so much drama. 1-0 win are like dates with Lindsay Lohan, lots of fun but afterwards you say to yourself "Do I really want to go through THAT again?"

Daisuke pitched himself into jams but pitched himself out of them. He allowed 4 hits, walked 3, and hit a batter. He also got some great relief. Okajima threw a perfect 8th, and Papelbon threw a perfect 9th with 2 strikeouts.

It was very weird to see Coco Crisp hitting 5th and JD Drew hitting 8th. Drew's struggles continued as he went 0 for 3 with 3 strikeouts. I do not understand why Mike Lowell doesn't hit 5th. Doesn't it seem to make sense that he hit 5th?

To beat CC Sabathia and the Indians in Cleveland is a great win.

Beckett goes tomorrow night against Fausto Carmona (that's a magician's name if I ever heard one).

Monday, July 23, 2007

ALL YOU COULD ASK FOR


You couldn't have picked a better outcome to this game. Jon Lester makes his first MLB start 11 months to the day since his last one, and pitches a solid 6 innings. He allowed 2 runs off 5 hits and 3 walks, striking out 6. He threw 96 pitches, 55 of which were strikes.

The offense supported him before he even took the mound, scoring 4 runs in the 1st, with the big hit being Manny's 2 run double.

The top of the order did their job with Crisp and Pedroia combining for 7 of 10 at the plate. Manny and Youkilis each went 2 for 4. Crisp, Pedroia, and Lugo all extended their hit streaks.

Now, before we get all fuzzy about this game, let's at least try to remember a few things.

Firstly, the Indians didn't arrive in Cleveland until 5 AM this morning after playing in Texas last night. They didn't take BP and probably didn't get much sleep.

Secondly, the Indians didn't know Lester was going to be the starter until we knew. The move made by the Red Sox was kept a secret until the proverbial last minute. Coming into this game, the Indians lineup had a total of 18 at-bats against Lester in the Majors. It's safe to say that they were all unfamiliar with his stuff, and the surprise announcement that he was pitching probably caught them off guard.

Thirdly, the Red Sox were up against Jake Westbrook. Westbrook is a shell of what he was last year. He has one win and an ERA over 6. He typically gets knocked around in the 1st inning, and the Red Sox treated him no differently tonight.

Fourthly, some signs of Lester's biggest problem last year were apparent. Jon was notorious for getting into jams in 2006, but being able to get out of them. That's all well and good, but they always resulted in his pitch count being very high, forcing him to leave games early. In his 15 starts last year, he went more than 6 innings in 2 of them. He had seven 5 inning starts. He had 6 starts lasting 6 innings or more. He averaged 18.57 pitches per inning last year. That simply doesn't bode well for a starting pitcher. In the 4th inning of tonight's game, Lester got himself into a jam, pitched very well to get himself out, but was forced to throw 28 pitches in the process. He pitched very well in this game, but his problem of not being able to pitch very deeply into games was apparent.

I know it seems like I'm being pessimistic and negative, but I'm not. I'm trying to be realistic. Lester pitched well, but it wasn't like he was up against a well-rested and fully prepared Indians lineup. He had 6 good innings, but he also had to work around his own mistakes.

I'll take the win, but Lester still seems to me to be a stop-gap measure until Schilling returns to the rotation.

JON LESTER STARTING IN CLEVELAND TONIGHT

Joel Pineiro has been designated for assignment. The Red Sox will be forced to eat his $4 million salary unless he is picked up by another team. Pineiro was essentially used only for mop up, or in emergencies. He had an ERA of 5.03 and a WHIP of 1.62. He will not be missed.

With the open roster spot, the Red Sox have called up Jon Lester from AAA Pawtucket. The Sox have also shifted the rotation, moving Julian Tavarez to the bullpen, and replacing him with Lester in tonight's game. Lester will be matched up against Jake Westbrook in his first MLB start since August 23rd of 2006.

Julian Tavarez was 0-4 with a 7.71 ERA in his last 5 starts. He has failed to pitch 5 innings in 4 of his last 5 starts. He hasn't had a Quality Start since June 20th.

This move isn't about making Lester a starter, it's more about making Tavarez a reliever. Lester has not been that great in AAA. He was 4-5 with a 3.89 ERA. He's pitched 71.2 innings in 14 starts. Now, many of those were shortened by pitch counts. However, he's still only averaged a little bit above 5 innings per start. And these numbers are against AAA hitters.

Last season, Lester was 7-2, but with an unimpressive 4.76 ERA. He only averaged 5.4 innings per start. He got a lot of run support, and got some great assists from the bullpen.

He isn't the savior of this team. He isn't The Answer. He is a replacement for Tavarez while Schilling is still on the DL. Do you really think the Sox want to make his first MLB start in 11 months be against the Cleveland Indians and on the road?

Speaking of Schilling, he threw 3 scoreless innings for AAA Pawtucket on Saturday, allowing only 2 hits and striking out 6. This is a major step forward for Curt in his efforts to return from his dead arm type of injury.

Speaking of Pawtucket, Clay Bucholz had a solid start yesterday for the PawSox. He went 5 innings, allowing 2 runs off three hits. He struck out 10 batters. He got the loss as Louisville was able to outscore Pawtucket 6-5. Nevertheless, a very good outing for Bucholz in AAA.

REFRESHING WEEKEND


After only scoring 2 runs on Thursday in a 4-2 loss, the Red Sox offense exploded this weekend for 29 runs in 3 games. Just to put this in perspective, it took the Red Sox 7 games to score 29 runs leading up to this stretch of scoring.

Now, we shouldn't get our hopes up, nor our expectations too high. We were up against a Chicago team that is playing horrendously. We were hitting at home. And we did just have a 6-6 homestand against Toronto, Tampa, KC, and the White Sox. We're also starting a 4 game series in one of the toughest places for a visiting team to win this season: Cleveland.

But the news for right now is good. Manny and Lowell both had big days on Sunday, each with a homerun. Manny had 4 RBI and got on base in all 5 plate appearances. Lowell added 3 RBI, giving him 70 on the season.

Enjoy the offense...

Now it's time for my New Englander pessimism to kick in.

Tim Wakefield once again could not reach the end of the 7th inning, nor could he reach 100 pitches. He hasn't gone 7+ innings since June 12th. Once again, Wakefield began crumbling in the 7th, allowing 2 runs to score before being relieved. It was an 8-1 comfortable game in the 7th until Wake collapsed. Then Delcarmen came in and had his first poor outing of the year, allowing his first inherited runner to score all season, and then allowing a run of his own. Manny's old problem of control came back to him as he threw 20 total pitches, only 8 of which were strikes. Thankfully, Okajima saved the day, and the lead.

Wednesday, July 18, 2007

INEXCUSABLE


Coming into last night's game, the Kansas City Royals were 39-53. That's .424. They had scored 415 runs in their first 92 games. That's 4.5 a game. They had allowed 453 runs, that's 4.9 a game. But they scored on us - allegedly one of the top teams in baseball - 9 times. And they held us to 3 runs, and 2 of those 3 runs came in garbage time when the winner of the game was no longer in doubt.

This game was lost in the 7th inning. It was 3-1 Royals by then, which is actually a staggering deficit for our offense to overcome anyway. Wakefield hasn't been able to pitch out of the 7th inning since June 12th against Colorado. In his last 9 starts, he's failed to go 7 innings in 8 of them, failed to go 6 innings in 3 of them, and failed to go 5 innings in 1 of them. He's become our second #5 starter alongside Tavarez.

Wake got into a jam when he allowed a double, a single, and a double to open up the 7th. After inducing a groundout, he was pulled for Javier Lopez. I know Javier's ERA is a nice 3.60, but I've always considered ERA to be a horrible stat for a reliever. It doesn't factor in inherited runners scoring, nor does it factor in how many times the pitcher leaves the game in a jam only to be rescued by another pitcher. Lopez has a WHIP of 1.48, which is far too high for him to be considered anywhere near a good reliever.

Just a side not, I'm referring to Lopez's stats on ESPN.com, looking at the splits section. Somehow, he's pitched -1.0 innings in a dome this season. I don't know how one pitches negative innings. I don't know if the mistake will be there, but here's the link.

Lefties have a .286 average against Lopez. Righties are hitting .220. You know things are wrong when one of your lefthanded relievers should be considered only for getting righties out.

Lopez just isn't working out as a situational lefty, or a mid-reliever. He should be kept to pitching in games that are out of reach for one side or the other, or against the bottom of other team's lineups. Just looking at his splits, hitters 6 through 9 in other team's lineups are hitting .179 off him. Hitters 3 through 5 in other teams lineups are hitting .423. He also shouldn't be brought in with runners on base. Opponents are hitting .200 off him when he comes in to start an inning, .231 against him when there are no runners on, and .275 when there are runners on base.

Then there's Joel Pineiro. He only allowed 1 run in the 8th, and the game was already out of reach, but seriously, what purpose does this guy serve? How has Joel Pineiro helped us? 5.06 ERA, 1.66 WHIP. The guy simply isn't helping us to win.

This team obviously has a middle relief problem. We've got Papelbon, Okajima, and Delcarmen at the end of games, and maybe Mike Timlin. But if the starter doesn't go 7, we face troublesome situations. We either wear out guys like Okajima and Papelbon, or we trust guys like Lopez and Pineiro with the ball.

Now the simpletons out there think the best way to solve this problem is to trade for some relievers. I think we can solve it in a better way. We need to trade for a starting pitcher, or two. I know the market out there for starters isn't very deep, and they will cost a lot in trades, but we need help desperately.

Tim Wakefield and Julian Tavarez are both #5 starters at best. Beckett is a #1, Matsuzaka is a #2. Gabbard has shown flashes of brilliance, but he's still only 25 years old and has only pitched into the 7th inning twice in his 5 starts. He seems to be coming along as an MLB pitcher, so maybe he's a #3. Then there's Schilling. God only knows what he will give us when and if he comes back. Let's say he comes back and is healthy, do you really think he's going to be a consistent 7 inning pitcher? Then there's Lester. Sox fans all seem to remember he went 7-2 last year, and we all seem to forget he did it with a 4.76 ERA. Lester has a 3.90 ERA in Pawtucket this year.

If we get another starting pitcher, someone who can be slotted as our #3 guy, we can have Beckett, Matsuzaka, whoever, Schilling, and Gabbard. We can move Wakefield and Tavarez to the pen. Tavarez is a proven reliever, but so is Wakefield. Both pitchers have had difficulty going deep into games this year. Both pitchers get knocked around their 2nd and 3rd times through a lineup. Both guys could fill the gap in between our starting pitching and our end of game relief. This could be our bullpen:

Closer: Papelbon
Set-up: Okajima
Set-up: Delcarmen
Set-up: Timlin
Mid-relief: Tavarez
Mid-relief: Snyder
Long-relief: Wakefield

Yes, that's 12 pitchers total. I think we should go with 12 pitchers. I think Wily Mo Pena should be given his outright release today. And it isn't the strikeouts. I don't care that the guy strikes out in 42% of his at-bats. What matters is he's hit a homerun in 3.2% of his ABs. He's gotten a hit in only 21% of his ABs, and gotten on base in 27.9% of his plate appearances. He can't run, he can't field, and he can barely hit. It's time to give up on him. We've got Hinske, Ellsbury, David Murphy down in Pawtucket, and Youkilis can even play the outfield in an emergency. Wily Mo has given us nothing but a few laughs this year as we watched him wave at curveballs like Pedro Cerrano.

Our offense is mediocre. But I don't see many ways it could be improved through external deals. We're not going to get a bat to replace Varitek. Youkilis, Lowell, and Pedroia are fine. In fact, they've been better than fine. We're stuck with Lugo for a long time, and we're still paying Renteria. Remember Orlando Cabrera? God, I wish we could get players like him. We're stuck with Manny and Drew in the outfield. We might be able to get another outfielder to replace Crisp. We're not tied to Coco for tons of money, and we might be able to find someone to hit there. But I still think that the best way for us to improve offensively is for the players we have to hit the way they should be hitting. Lugo has come around recently, but Manny and Ortiz need to produce more.

The Yankees are only 8 games back, folks. And there are still 6 games head-to-head between us. We've got a grueling schedule ahead of us as well. We've got a 4 game series in Cleveland coming up. In a few weeks, yet another West Coast road trip to Seattle and Anaheim. Things might get hairy.

Red Sox Mets 1986 RBI Basbeall Reenactment

Painful, but still funny to watch. I miss RBI Baseball.

Tuesday, July 17, 2007

GABBO! GABBO! GABBO!


Anyone get The Simpsons reference?

Kason Gabbard had a career night and the Red Sox actually hit homeruns for a 4-0 victory over the KC Royals. Gabbard went the full 9, allowing no runs off 3 hits, one walk. He struck out 8, and faced only 3 batters in every inning but the 5th. He threw 107 pitches, 71 for strikes. He induced 3 double plays and 15 total ground ball outs.

Gabbard is the thirds Sox pitcher to throw a complete game this season. Matsuzaka and Schilling have the other two. The last time a Red Sox farm product threw a complete game for us was Devern Hansack's shortened CG last year. The last true complete game thrown by a Sox product (not counting Schilling as a Sox product) was Aaron Sele in 1997. The last complete game shutout by a Sox product in a Sox uniform was Roger Clemens in 1996.

Pedroia and Manny hit solo homeruns, and David Ortiz hit a 2 run shot. Ortiz is hitting .471 in the last week, with an .824 slugging percentage. Perhaps he has finally gotten hot.

JD Drew and Jason Varitek returned to the lineup. Drew went 1 for 4. Tek went 0 for 3.

SCHILLING THROWS SIMULATED GAME
Curt threw to ten batters in a simulated game on Monday. He retired nine of them. He threw 31 pitches. He'll throw a side session today. He is scheduled to throw 45 pitches in a rehab game with AAA Pawtucket on Saturday.

Speaking of Pawtucket, Clay Bucholz had his AAA debut last night. He went three innings, allowing 3 runs, but the PawSox were able to win the game.

Tonight, Tim Wakefield makes his 498th career start against Leo Nunez, who makes his 1st.

Monday, July 16, 2007

EXTENDED MEDIOCRITY


Yesterday's 2-1 loss to the Blue Jays was another disappointing game in an ever lengthening stretch of average baseball being played by the Boston Red Sox. Since the beginning of June, we're 19-20 (.487).

We've had a somewhat difficult schedule with 4 games in Oakland, 3 in Arizona, 3 in Atlanta, 3 in San Diego, 3 in Seattle, and 3 in Detroit. But we're also losing games against below average teams. We lost 2 of 3 to the Yankees in Fenway, 2 of 3 to Colorado at home, 2 of 4 to Texas, and now 2 of 4 to Toronto.

We've also lost some close games that we could have and probably should have won. June 3rd, 6-5 loss to New York. June 4th, 5-4 loss to the A's. June 5th, 2-0 loss to Oakland. June 6th, 3-2 loss to the Athletics. June 26th, 8-7 loss to Seattle. June 27th, 2-1 loss to Seattle. June 30th, 5-4 loss to Texas. July 1st, 2-1 lss to Texas. July 7th, 3-2 loss to Detroit. July 8th, 6-5 loss to Detroit. July 13th, 6-5 loss to Toronto. July 15th, 2-1 loss to Toronto. That's 10 one run losses, and a two run loss. If we had just won 5 of those games, we'd be at 24-15 (.615) over this stretch.

On May 29th, the Red Sox were 36-15 (.706). We've dropped more than .100 points in winning percentage since then. And although we still have the best record in baseball (tied with the Angels), we are no longer far and away the best team in baseball. We're still a comfy 9 games up on New York, but if we had maintained that .700 winning percentage, we'd be up by 20 games. And let's say we played .600 ball over the last 40 games, we'd be 14 games ahead. In other words, we could be light years ahead of New York instead of miles.

What's changed since April and May? The schedule had a lot of good teams in those months as well, but we beat them. Three of three from the Angels, 2 of 3 from Minnesota, 2 of 3 from Atlanta, 2 of 3 from Cleveland. And we crushed bad teams like New York and Texas.

Something's different, though. Maybe it's the big lead we built up. Maybe there's no sense of urgency. Maybe we were simply playing over our heads in the first two months.

Tim Wakefield's performances have been slipping. Opponents hit .210 off Wake in April. Then .244 in May, then .281 in June, and now .327 in July. Six of his first 7 starts were Quality Starts. But since those first 7, only 2 of 11 have been. His ERA was 1.79 on May 10th, now it's 4.47.

Schilling also had a great April, going 3-1 with a 3.27 ERA, but since then he's fallen off and landed on the DL. Even with the 1 hitter in Oakland, his June ERA was 5.79. And of course now we have Gabbard filling in, who has done OK, but he's still a AAA player and he hasn't gone deep into games for us, exposing our soft middle-relief.

Julio Lugo's average has been low all season, but earlier he was still producing. He knocked in 30 runs in April and May, but has knocked in a mere 10 in June and July. He's having a good July thus far, so let's hope he's on the turn around. Then again, when you hit .071 in June, there really is no place to go but up.

Kevin Youkilis's .402 month of May would be hard for anyone to duplicate. However, he's fallen off from that considerably. He's hitting .259 since May, with a good OBP, but his slugging shows significant shrinkage. He's slugging .361 in June and July, after slugging .407 in April and .679 in May. He hit 8 homers in the first 2 months of the season but has only hit 1 since then. It might be all the switching in the lineup, he might not be getting the same protection, whatever. Right now, he should probably be hitting earlier in the lineup because he's still getting on base. His slugging right now is far too low for a #5 or #6 hitter.

JD Drew has been stop and go, slow and go all season. The man is I-93 in Quincy at 3 in the afternoon. He'll have stretches of going really fast and hard, only to come to a complete stop. It isn't like he had an amazing April and May. His April was good, his May sucked. His June was actually pretty damn good with 6 homers, a .325 average, .404 OBP and .558 slugging.

This season reminds me of 2004. We came out of the gate very quickly that year, then turned mediocre. We made some trades, got rid of Nomar, and exploded late in the year. We won the Wild Card then went 11-3 in the playoffs. This team needs something to stir it up. That might be a trade, it might be a player like Ortiz or Manny getting hot, but we need something. This mediocrity is boring the hell out of me, and although the AL East is ours to lose, this team needs to improve itself before they are a World Series team.