Is David Ortiz a Hall of Famer?

No. He's not.

Sorry, Boston, but the beloved Big Papi should not be enshrined in Cooperstown. And there are three reasons why.

Reason #1:
He's a Designated Hitter. Of the 1,823 games of baseball he's played, he's only played 257 in the field. There are no current Hall of Famers who were primarily DHs. Edgar Martinez might be inducted one day. But he played more twice as many games in the field as Ortiz has (592). So far, Martinez has only managed to receive 36.5% in Hall of Fame voting. Induction to the Hall requires 75%.

David Ortiz has much more impressive numbers than Edgar Martinez, but he's still a DH. By itself, that's not enough to keep him out of Cooperstown. But it doesn't help his cause. The DH is viewed (perhaps rightly so) as an incomplete, one dimensional player. It's for big fat sluggers who have no other skills but hitting.

Reason #2:
400 Homeruns simply isn't as astonishing anymore. Neither is the 500 HR mark. There's a very good chance that Ortiz will finish his career with more than 500 homeruns. That's not an automatic ticket to the Hall anymore.

Ortiz has played his career in the most slugger-friendly era in the game's history. The ball was wound tightly, ballparks were built smaller, expansion spread pitching talent thinly, scouting videos allowed batters to see pitchers before ever facing them.

Which is more impressive: Griffey's 630 homeruns, or Mantle's 536? Frank Thomas' 521, or Carl Yastrzemski's 452?

Accumulating massive amounts of homeruns is not as impressive as it used to be. And the fact that the DH allows players to extend their careers as slow, unathletic, hulking sluggers doesn't help Ortiz's case, even if he finishes with 550+ homeruns.

And even before the Sluggers' Era, 400 homeruns was not a guarantee to the Hall. Dave Kingman hit 442 in the '70s and '80s. He's not in the Hall. Darrel Evans hit 414 during the same period, and is also not in Cooperstown. Both these guys played a defensive position as well.

Dale Murphy hit 398 homeruns. He also won the MVP twice and 5 Gold Gloves. He's not in the Hall. Joe Carter hit 396. Graig Nettles hit 390. 400 homeruns has never been a key to the Hall, and it's even less of one these days.

Reason #3:
Perhaps the biggest reason Ortiz isn't a Hall of Famer is that he has a PED history. A PEDigree, if you will. He tested positive in 2003, when the MLB anonymously tested players in order to gauge how prevalent PEDs were in the game. In 2009, it was learned that his name was on a secret list of positive tests.

Ortiz blamed an ignorance of over-the-counter supplements for the positive test. He did so after he had time to consult with the MLBPA and confirm that what he tested positive for was never going to be known.

The Big Papi loving Boston sports media refused to dig any deeper or ask any hard questions. We all forgave Ortiz and he never apologized or satisfactorily explained what he took, when he took it, and why.

Statistically, his numbers suggest a major mid-career improvement, particularly in the power department.

He went from a solid 20 homerun hitter with a .500 slugging percentage in 2002, to a menacing 31 homerun hitter with a .592 slugging percentage in 2003. That's the year he tested positive for PEDs, and that's the year he became good friends with Manny Ramirez.

He continued to improve. 41 homeruns, 47, then 54. He tripled his annual homerun output from 18 in 2001 to 54 in 2006. As his HR numbers increased, his slugging percentage didn't change much because he was hitting fewer doubles in 2005 and 2006. In 2004, he hit 47 doubles, then 40 in 2005, then 29 in 2006. He was hitting just as many balls hard (between 85 to 91 extra-base hits per season from 2004 to 2006), they were simply travelling farther. Doubles were becoming homeruns. Because he was stronger.

PEDs can't make a regular person into a great ballplayer. But they can turn a solid hitter into an All-Star. They can turn doubles into homeruns.

58 of his 400 homeruns came before he arrived in Boston, and before his positive test. 342 came after that test.

142 of his 400 homeruns came in a three year burst from 2004 to 2006. He then slowed down, and has hit 169 homeruns in 5.5 seasons.

How much did PEDs impact those numbers? There's no way to know. He never revealed what he took, or how long he took it. He claims he doesn't know. So how can we know?

All we can really know is what we see on the field. I see a DH who has reached a milestone that isn't very amazing anymore and who has a positive PED test in his history that correlates with his improvement as a player. Because of that, I don't see a Hall of Famer.

Ortiz Hits 400th, Sox Lose 40th

The Red Sox went 7-2 on their homestand. And then went to the West Coast to play two of the worst teams in the AL. And they went 2-5, including a 3 game sweep at the hand of the Oakland Athletics. And so ends a 16 game stretch against inferior opponents that I felt the Sox could take advantage of. Instead, they went 9-7.

The pitching has been fine (apart from Matsuzaka's horror show). As it was yesterday. Aaron Cook went a very respectable 6 innings, allowing 3 runs. That's not great, but it gave the Sox a chance to win.

A chance they didn't take advantage of yesterday, nor have they taken advantage of on this road trip. They scored 14 runs in 7 games. That's 2 runs per game if your nursing a firework hangover.

This came after scoring 69 runs in 9 games (7.67 per game).

The only thing consistent about the Red Sox offense has been their inconsistency.

David Ortiz hit his 400th homerun. It was a solo homerun. His 22nd of the season. He's on pace for over 40 and will thankfully not be taking part in the Homerun Derby. He's been the most consistent and by far most prolific member of the Red Sox offense.

Maybe things will improve when Ellsbury returns. Maybe not. We're just slightly over halfway through the season and the Sox are on pace for 84 wins. They win 7 of 9, then lose 5 of 7. All against mediocre and poor opponents.

They have a 4 game homestand before the All-Star break. The Yankees are in town starting Friday, then a doubleheader Saturday, and a game Sunday night.

This series is an opportunity to reclaim ground in the divisional race. Or to be knocked out of it completely.

Josh Beckett opens the series for the Sox (why does that give me a bad feeling?). He opposes Hiroki Kuroda. In June he was 4-1 with a 1.98 ERA. This could be difficult for the Sox.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

David Ortiz and the 400 Homerun Club

David Ortiz is on the verge of history. He's 1 homerun shy of 400. He'll be the 49th player to reach that mark. And while that's intriguing and exciting, it's just not as impressive as it used to be. None of these homerun milestones are.

The term "milestone" is appropriate though. Consider 400 miles. To people in the 21st century that's not too far a distance to travel. It's a 6 hour drive. A flight from New York to Cleveland (about 400 miles) takes 1 hour and 45 minutes. 400 miles is not a long distance.

100 years ago, a 400 mile journey was immensely long. A 10 hour train trip. And on a flat road, it would be slightly shorter (but also slowed by countless fuel and repair stops) driving a Model T.

And 300 years ago, 400 miles was an unbelievably long distance. A horse journey would take over 4 days.

The point is, the milestone stays the same, the perception of it changes.

I remember growing up and there were 3 people in the 600 homerun club. Aaron, Ruth, and Mays. Now there are 8, including Jim Thome. Is Jim Thome one of the best sluggers of all time? No.

The 500 homerun club is equally devalued. Rafael Palmeiro has 569. Manny Ramirez has 555. Gary Sheffield has 509. It's not just the steroid-assisted guys either. Frank Thomas has 521, the same as Ted Williams and Willie McCovey. Williams' and McCovey's numbers are easy to remember, Thomas' will be easy to forget.

So if these feats don't mean anything anymore, what does 400 homeruns mean? Not much on its own. And even less if the player has a history with PEDs as Ortiz does.

Carlos Delgado has 473. Jose Canseco has 462. Chipper Jones has 460. Chipper Jones! Abert Pujols has 457 and steadily climbing. Vladimir Guerrero and Jeff Bagwell have 449. Jason Giambi has 429. Andruw Jones and Mike Piazza have 427.

Paul Konerko became the 48th member of the 400 Homerun Club on April 25th. Ortiz will hit his any day now. Adam Dunn (389 career HRs, 24 in 2012) is on pace to hit his 400th in early August.

Alfonso Soriano only needs 46 more to join. Mark Teixeira is 74 shy. Adrian Beltre needs 77. Carlos Beltran needs 78.

Miguel Cabrera is 108 away. But at 29 years old, he has plenty of time to get there. He could easily get there by 2015. Ryan Howard, if he can stay healthy, should get the 114 he needs to join. Prince Fielder needs 158, but he can get that in 4 or 5 years. Matt Holliday has a decent shot at it too. If Adrian Gonzalez remembers how to hit homeruns, he can hit the 199 he needs.

Big round numbers are always fun. We like our 10 Commandments, our Top 100 countdowns, our 300 Spartans, our Daytona 500s, our 1,000 Ways to Die, our 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea, the 100,000th mile on the odometer. It's exciting to anticipate big round numbers like 400 homeruns, then celebrate when it's finally hit.

But considering the caliber of players that have done it, 400 homeruns is a significantly less impressive part of a player's resume than it once was. It's not that meaningful anymore. And considering some of the things Ortiz has used that aided some of those homeruns, it's even less impressive.

I'm watching for it. I'm eagerly waiting. But I'm not amazed.

Red Sox Finish Homestand the Right Way

At the outset of this homestand, I wrote a post about how the Red Sox were beginning a 16 game stretch against mediocre and less than mediocre opponents. I argued that despite injuries to starting pitchers, the Sox could and should take advantage of the schedule and win some games. They've done that so far. They finished their homestand 7-2 and now embark on a West Coast trip to play two of the worst teams in the American League.

Jon Lester wasn't great today. He allowed 7 hits in 7 innings, and didn't walk anyone. But a pair of those hits were homeruns. He gave the Sox an opportunity to win, which is nice, but I expect more then just "nice" from Lester. I don't expect him to be Ace-like every time out, but with Beckett and Buchholz down, he should be slightly better than he's been this year. He's 5-5 with a 4.53 ERA. And in June, he's 2-1 with a 4.00 ERA. Today he allowed 4 runs in 7 innings. Good. Not great. He's capable of doing better.

You can't ask much more from the lineup today. They jumped on Ricky Romero early and often. The game was over after the 1st inning when it was 6-1 Sox.

Since it was a blowout game, Adrian Gonzalez of course added to his RBI total. He had 3. Mike Aviles was 2 for 4 with a single and a double. He knocked in a pair. Gonzalez and Aviles are now tied at 43 RBI.

Cody Ross was 2 for 3 with 2 runs scored and a double. His 14th double of the season. His .578 slugging percentage is the second best on the team behind Ortiz.

Speaking of David Ortiz, I saved the best for last. In the 5th inning he hit his 399th career homerun. Unfortunately, he didn't get #400 in front of the Fenway crowd. Odds are he'll hit that milestone in Seattle or Oakland. The Mariners have allowed the 5th most homeruns in baseball despite playing in a pitcher-friendly park.

Ortiz and the Sox are in Seattle for 4 games. The series starts tomorrow night at 10 as Franklin Morales opposes Felix Hernandez. Ortiz has homered once off King Felix before.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo