Red Sox remain consistent by allowing 7 runs again

On the bright side, at least the Red Sox aren't keeping any of us up late with nail-biting late inning tension. These games are over so early, we'll all be getting to bed by 8pm each night.

Part of me feels bad for these third tier pitchers the Sox are forcing to take the mound. Josh Osich has never started a Major League game. He's only started twice in eight years of minor league ball. It's not like he's been an exceptional reliever either. And so the Red Sox put him on the hill to face a team that hit the 5th most homeruns in the NL last year? Strategy. Value. Great product, guys.

Can you give any blame to Osich for the loss? Technically yes, but is it really his fault? If the Sox had put Devers on the mound, or me, or Dr. Fauci, would you blame the person on the mound or the person who put them there?

I'm tempted to give Osich an Honorable Mention for his start, just for not giving up a run in the 1st inning the way Perez and Weber did.

By the way, Jon Lester pitched 5 no-hit innings for the Cubs Monday night.

Man of the Game: Michael Wacha

Wacha allowed his share of baserunners but he never seemed to be under threat. He made big pitches in big situations and was very much in total control of the game. The Sox hit a pair of homers, but they were solo shots.

Honorable Mentions:

Zack Godley: 4 IP, 0 ER, 7 K

Pete Alonso: Missile homerun that ricocheted off the Monster

Michael Conforto: Bomb homerun deep into the RF bleachers

Dominic Smith: Howitzer homerun deposited in the bullpen

Shame Share:

Josh Osich: 0.2 shares - 2 IP, 2 ER

Ownership 0.3 shares - Not having enough SPs

Chaim Bloom 0.3 - Not having enough SPs

Jeffrey Springs: 0.2 shares - 1.1 IP, 5 ER

I want the Cubs to lose tonight so I can stop rooting for the Mets

I don't like the Cubs. I don't like the general attitude that seems to define the essence of being a Cubs fan: Be happy to lose. It's not that they don't want to see their team win, it just isn't a priority to them. Or at best, it has no impact on their mood. There are more important things than winning: beer, summer afternoon sunshine, and having a good time at Wrigley is what matters most. If Cubs fans were told that moving out of Wrigley into a modern ballpark with luxury boxes would increase their chances of winning a World Series, I doubt they'd want to do it.

You know the phrase "Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing?" Cubs fans are satisfied with just the first part.

I like Theo Epstein. I like Jon Lester. I outright hate Joe Maddon, and that hatred outweighs any positive feelings I have for Epstein or Lester. Maddon is obnoxious. His teams are obnoxious. If he wins a World Series, the obnoxiousness will only increase exponentially.

The Cubs are not kindred to the pre-2004 Red Sox. Even the nature of the team's two Curses are different. The Red Sox sold Babe Ruth and a number of other great players to the Yankees, and the Sox paid their penance for those sins for nearly 9 decades. The Cubs pissed off a guy with a goat, and then they weren't good for a century. Great story.

Cubs fans aren't frustrated or cranky or sarcastic enough to compare to the fellowship of the miserable that were Red Sox fans before 2004. Red Sox fans were tortured. Red Sox fans cared. Cubs fans do not.

Look at Red Sox fans' reaction to the waves of Pink Hat that infiltrated Fenway after 2004. The Pink Hats didn't care if the Sox won or who was on the team and what role they played, they just wanted to go to Fenway and take a selfie of themselves eating a hot dog. #WallyWave

All Cubs fans are Pink Hats! Their priorities are the exact same. Fuck that.

I don't want that content with failure Chicago fanbase to be rewarded with a World Series. I don't want Joe Maddon's already gargantuan ego to be augmented by a World Series ring on his finger. I don't want to hear about goats or Back to the Future II anymore. So let's go Mets.

And please, Mets, finish it tonight so I can stop hating myself for rooting for a New York team.

BBS Awards: Jon Lester wins Ted Williams Award for Red Sox Player of the Year

The Boston Blood Sox Awards (or Bloodies) are awarded for great success and/or pitiful failure in the 2014-15 sports year.

The 2014 Red Sox season seems like a long long time ago. It's hard to imagine that the Sox were once a team struggling to get out of last place and were failing even at the most basic and fundamental... wait.

Jon Lester won 10 games for the Sox in 2014 before he was traded. His ERA was 2.52 and he was earning the contract that the Red Sox refused to consider giving him. And also making the Sox look stupid for not negotiating with him before the season.

Speaking of the Sox looking like idiots, Lester was traded for Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes was then traded in the off-season for Rick Porcello. The Red Sox then extended Porcello's contract.

Great moves, Red Sox. Keep up the good work.

Jon Lester was 4-1 in May, but is too old to have helped the Red Sox

The Red Sox were 10-19 in May. Former Sox Ace Jon Lester (yes, he was an Ace) was 4-1. All 6 of his starts in May were quality starts. He had a 1.76 ERA in the month. His loss saw him strike out 10 and allow only 1 earned run in 7 innings.

Red Sox pitchers made 29 starts in May. About half (15) of them were quality starts. Sox pitchers had a 4.21 ERA in the month, 23rd in baseball. They were 24th in opposing OPS and 26th in WHIP.

You might then think that Jon Lester could have been a big help to the Sox the last few weeks. But you're wrong. You must remember that he's 31, which is old. And his being so old trumps anything he might have been able to do on the mound for the Sox.

All of the current Sox starters are 30 or under. When assembling their rotation the Red Sox very correctly preferred to focus on age instead of performance. They chose guys like 26 year old Rick Porcello over 31 year old Jon Lester. Porcello was 2-2 in May with a 5.40 ERA. And Porcello will be making $20+ million next year, because he is 26. And 26 is younger than 31. Lester is practically a senior citizen compared to him. A

So even though Jon Lester had a terrific month of May and Rick Porcello's month was poor, what matters most is that Lester is a few dozen months older than Porcello.

Photo Credit: Associated Press

All I want/expect from the 2015 Red Sox is to not suck

I'm a little sick of hearing how Opening Day is a day for optimism and not a day to allow yourself to be pissed that Clay Buchholz is your "Ace." This team finished in last place, then lost its best player at the most important position. So let's be optimistic, but also realistic.

And if you truly are optimistic that the Red Sox are within arm's reach of another World Series, then you should be angrier than I am that the Sox didn't employ the left arm of Jon Lester to reach for that ring.

Is this team good enough to win the 2015 World Series? No. Good enough to make the World Series? Highly doubtful. Good enough to win a playoff series? Maybe. Good enough to make the playoffs? Solid chance. Good enough to contend for a playoff spot? Probably. Good enough to be above .500? Definitely. Good enough to not finish last? It fucking better be.

I'm sick of long pointless summers of Red Sox baseball. I'm sick of games played poorly by overrated prospects. Only 2 AL teams were struck out more often than the Red Sox (1,337 times). I'm sick of that. I just want to once again feel like these games mean something. I want to watch players who can play. All I want from the 2015 Red Sox is to not suck. Be a legitimate, watchable, respectable team.

I don't think I'm asking for much. I don't mind a "bridge season," so long as the bridge isn't as painful to cross as the Bourne Bridge with one lane open the Friday before Memorial Day. The not-optimistic reality is that 2015 will be a bridge season.

The rotation has tremendous depth in the middle, with five strong candidates to fill the #3 slot. That's as optimistic as I can phrase my assessment of the pitchers.

I don't know why everyone thinks the lineup is amazing. Probably because last year's was so terrible. The offense will be good, but I'm not sold on it being as great as everyone thinks it will be. If Dustin Pedroia doesn't improve, that's a problem. Mookie Betts has fewer than 200 MLB at-bats, so how can we be sure what he'll do in the next 600 ABs? Pablo Sandoval's regular season production isn't great, he hasn't slugged above .450 or hit 20 HRs since 2011. Shane Victorino is your starting right-fielder, 'nuf said about that.

David Ortiz is 39. His average, OBP, and SLG have all decreased in each of the last 3 seasons. He hit 35 homeruns last year, and maybe he'll hit 35 more, and maybe all his offensive numbers will rebound. But he's also 39. At that age, the "no" side of maybe gets larger and the "yes" side gets smaller. I'm not being a Debbie Downer, I'm being a Pragmatic Pete and a Factual Frank. The core of the lineup is 39 years old. It's a fact. On May 19th, he'll be closer to his 40th birthday than his 39th.

It's a good lineup. It will be less painful to watch than the 2014 Sox. But it won't be the Murderer's Row that some in this town seem to think it will be.

Then there's the bullpen. The most positive thing I can say about them is that I have no idea what they'll do.

I'm not trying to be pessimistic on Opening Day. It's sunny out, the snow is almost all melted away, I'm excited for the game, and I haven't been excited to see this team play in over a year. The Sox have a team that can be entertaining and relevant. And I think I'm going to enjoy the 2015 season because my expectations and hopes are rational. I won't be disappointed when this team finishes 3rd, or loses the Wild Card playoff game because it has no Ace. And if the Sox pull off a miracle, I'll be just as happy as the rest of you.

Enjoy the bridge season.

Red Sox assemble a rotation of mediocrity and question marks

Thursday morning the Red Sox didn't really have a rotation. By sundown, they had one. Unfortunately it's a mix between mediocre innings eaters and unpredictable question marks who might win 17 games or fail to make 17 starts.

Wade Miley and Rick Porcello are painfully uninteresting and average. Miley is a gray Nissan Maxima and Porcello is a beige Toyota Corolla. They just blend in. There's nothing thrilling about them, but they're not bad either. You don't covet them, but you're happy to have them.

I actually like each of these acquisitions. Each of these guys is decent, or has the potential to be good. The individual moves are fine. It's the mediocrity of the rotation as a whole that enrages me. The Boston Red Sox, one of the premier teams in baseball, with tons of money to spend, don't even have a legit #2 in their rotation? Really?!?

Embarrassing.

Wade Miley is a 28-year old lefty. That means in 2 years he'll be too old for the Red Sox to consider good. He went 8-12 last year with a 4.34 ERA in the National League. The most impressive part of his resume is that he's pitched 190+ innings the past 3 seasons. To be fair, he did play in a hitter friendly ballpark in Arizona and that seems to have had an impact on his numbers. He had a 5.61 ERA at home and a 3.17 ERA on the road. Eighteen of the 23 homers he allowed were at home.

But Fenway is hardly pitcher-friendly. He's a middle of the rotation guy whose fastball peaks at 91. I'm not impressed, I'm not disappointed.

Rick Porcello was acquired by trading Yoenis Cespedes to Detroit. So he's essentially the parting gift the Sox got for losing Lester. Porcello had the best year of his career in 2014, with a 3.43 ERA and 15 wins. He has post-season experience, but it isn't good. His good 2014 numbers might be the start of a new trend in his career. If so, he could turn out to be a good #2 starter. Or his 2014 performance might be an aberration and he will revert to the 3/4 guy he has been for most of his career.

That small question mark is nothing compared to Justin Masterson, whose unpredictability rivals Clay Buchholz. Materson's career has been a roller-coaster ride. A 3.21 ERA in 2011, 4.93 in 2012, an All-Star in 2013, a 5.88 ERA in 2014. In 2015, who knows? He could be good, he could be awful, he could find his way to the bullpen.

So as of Thursday afternoon the rotation looks like this:

1. Buchholz - the definition of uncertainty
2. Porcello - could be a good #2, could be a #4 in a #2 slot
3. Miley - innings eater
4. Kelly - on the team by default
5. Masterson - might improve the bullpen

This is the Boston Red Sox. This is a big market team with money, history, prestige. And THAT'S the rotation?!?

Imagine the potential playoff rotation. Buchholz facing the other team's ace, Porcello against a legitimate #2, Joe Kelly pitching in a possible elimination game. That's if Buchholz is healthy or effective. It might be Porcello, Miley, Kelly, with Masterson starting a game 4. Yikes. At least Miley will eat up those playoff innings. That's what you want in a short series: question marks and innings eaters.

Imagine if they signed Lester back in March. This is what your rotation might look like:

1. Lester
2. Buchholz
3. Porcello
4. Miley
5. Kelly

Maybe you don't get both Porcello and Miley. Who cares. You put an ace or a semi-ace up at the top, and it looks so much better. Especially in a playoff series. You depend less on Buchholz being healthy/effective and on Porcello bringing his 2014 success to 2015.

Everyone in the rotation should be given a number with 3 in it, because that's what most of them are.

Did the Cubs overpay to get Lester, or were the Red Sox too cheap to pay a premium for good pitching?

Jon Lester has reportedly signed with the Chicago Cubs for 6 years and $155 million. The deal includes a vesting option for a 7th year at $15 million. The Red Sox' final offer to reacquire their former #1 pitcher was worth $135 million, also over 6 years.

It's important to note that in March, the Sox offered a 4 year deal to Lester worth $70 million, essentially half of what they offered him in December. Even though they very vocally believe that 30+ year old pitchers aren't worth that kind of money. Except when they are.

Are Theo and the Cubs paying too much for Lester? Toward the end of the deal he'll be north of 35 years old. By then he might be a worn down #3 or #4 starter collecting $25.8 million to make 20 starts a season and to struggle to keep his ERA below 4.50. So it's stupid for the Cubs to pay so much money for that. It's also smart for the Red Sox not to. Or is it?

Top of the line, proven starting pitching is so difficult to find and so necessary to win, that you have to pay a premium to buy it. It's like paying for parking at a Sox game. There's so little of it available, that you shell out a wad of cash to rent a few square feet of asphalt for 5 hours.

Here's another comparison. The amount of money you spend for a beer inside Fenway. You drop $8, $9, even more because a baseball game without beer is a form of torture so cruel they didn't even use it to interrogate detainees at Guantanamo.

Beer at a baseball game is necessary, so it costs more. Parking at Fenway is rare, so it costs more. Quality pitching is something both necessary and rare, so it costs a lot more.

The Red Sox were willing to pay a premium for that quality pitching, just not as much as the Cubs were willing to pay. But don't mock the Cubs for eventually paying a 36-year old pitcher $25.8 million, or praise the Red Sox for their financial prudence. Your Sox were willing to pay the same guy $22.5 million. That $3.3 million difference is probably how much panda related revenue the Sox will be hauling in per season.

Making fun of the Cubs and praising the Red Sox for this would be like going to Fenway, buying a $9 Bud Light, and making fun of the guy who spent $10 for a Sam Adams.

Just a few days ago, the Sox seemed to have a win right now approach to the off-season, spending $22M/year for Hanley Ramirez and $19M/year for Pablo Sandoval. To win right now, however, you need pitching. And the Sox have none of that. Clay Buchholz isn't just your "ace," he's the entire rotation.

Is it dumb to spend $155 million for Lester? Which is dumber, spending that much for an aging pitcher, or having Clay Buchholz be your #1 starter?

There's still pitching available out there. But at a cost of big money and/or top prospects. With Lester off the market, the supply of quality pitching has decreased, yet the demand/need remains the same. If the Sox don't want to pay the required premium for that pitching, then maybe Sox fans should learn a lesson from them and be prudent with their money, and maybe not pay the required premium for parking or beer at Fenway. Or for tickets.

Photo Credit:
Frank Gunn/AP

John Lackey wanted to leave the Red Sox

Two years ago could you have imagined that John Lackey would be the one dumping the Red Sox, and not vice versa?

Lackey made it clear that if the Red Sox tried to exercise their $500,000 option on him for 2015, there was a strong likelihood that he'd retire. But that option nevertheless increased his trade value. At the very least the option gave leverage to the Sox or any other team negotiating a contract extension. They could offer less than market value to Lackey, whose choices would be to accept a few million to pitch or retire once the $500k option was exercised.

Immediately after Lackey was traded to St. Louis, Ken Rosenthal announced that Lackey informed the Cardinals he would honor the $500,000 option, and not retire. Had Lackey told the Red Sox that he'd be willing to play for $500,000 in 2015, there's no way the Sox would have traded him. In essence, Lackey engineered this trade.

Remember when all of us wanted Lackey to be included with Beckett and Crawford in the Great Purge of 2012? Then last year we became Lackey fans as he helped the team win a World Series. And now he is the one who orchestrated his departure.

The Cards and Lackey might come to terms on a new contract extension anyway. But isn't it odd that this option was a point of contention for Lackey here in Boston, then he gets traded and it's no longer an issue? He did not want to stay here.

Lackey had enough of the Red Sox. The way the non-negotiations went between Jon Lester and the front office probably had a lot to do with that. Once the Sox started shopping Lester, Lackey wanted out. He gave the Red Sox an incentive to trade him, with the threat of future uncertainty if they didn't. He also kept his trade value up with his performance on the field, and by never threatening to retire if a team besides the Red Sox wanted to exercise his $500k option.

If the Red Sox were the Titanic, sinking slowly into the North Atlantic, John Lackey got himself a spot on a lifeboat by threatening to blow up half the ship if he wasn't allowed off.

And here's the kicker. The Sox included that $500,000 option when they signed him as a way to mitigate the risk of his elbow issues. The idea was that he might miss a long time due to injury (which he did), costing the team lots of money (which he did), but that the team would recoup the loss with a year of almost free service.

But it's the Cardinals who look to benefit from that nearly free year that the Red Sox paid for. The Sox bought the the insurance policy and made all the payments, the Cardinals are cashing it in. And that's because Lackey wanted to leave.

Photo Credit: Barry Chin/Boston Globe

The Red Sox didn't even try to keep Jon Lester here

I'd rather have Yoenis Cespedes now than next to nothing when Jon Lester walks as a free agent. That's not why I'm disappointed/enraged at the Red Sox today. I'm mad because I'd much much much MUCH rather have Jon Lester over Yoenis Cespedes. There's essentially nobody the Sox could have gotten in exchange for Lester that would have left me content. Unfortunately the Sox made no legitimate effort to keep Lester here. The fact that he's gone, and that we'll never know how much of a hometown discount he would have accepted to stay, leaves me shaking my head.

How could the Red Sox do this to themselves?

The Sox traded a guy who had recently become a bona fide Ace, and who had also grown into a leader, for a Homerun Derby winner. That's like trading Kevin Durant for the winner of the slam dunk contest. And this happened because the Sox hardly tried to keep their Ace. That lack of effort is the most irritating aspect of what unfolded at the trade deadline.

The $70 million offer for 4 years offer was an insult, not a starting point. You can't negotiate with insults. Watch Shark Tank and see how the potential investors react when someone makes an absurd demand. Or go to a car dealership and offer to buy a brand new Mercedes for half the sticker price. The dealer won't make a counter offer, they'll just move on, because it's clear you're not serious.

I've heard some people question Lester's camp for not making a counter-offer, but how do you counter a joke? How can you negotiate with someone who thinks that you're worth slightly more money a year than Clay Buchholz was? How can you negotiate with someone who is clearly terrified of long-term commitment, which I'm sure is something Lester wants? Lester has been underpaid by the Sox for years, this is his chance to cash in, and the Sox were too cheap.

Or were they? Were they cheap or did they want to make a token offer they knew would get rejected? They've done similar things before.

These cloak and dagger, deceptive, disingenuous tactics are what we've come to expect from the Red Sox front office. And don't exclude Ben Cherington from these mind games. He's King John's pawn, he's Lord Lucchino's foot soldier. He's happy to be their puppet, or to stay out of baseball decisions when his masters get involved.

The Red Sox have no clue what it will cost to sign Lester in the off-season. They don't even know what his hometown discount rate might have been. That's the proof that their "negotiations" with him were not negotiations. If you don't at least come away with knowing what the other party wants, then you haven't negotiated.

If Lester signs a massive deal somewhere else, let's say $200 million for 7 years, I won't praise the Red Sox for knowing the price would be too high. They don't know anything. They made a crap offer that pissed off their Ace, then failed to immediately make a legit offer, then traded their best player from the 2013 World Series run. They sent a pitcher with 110 career wins, a 3-0 record in the World Series, and 2 rings to Oakland in exchange for a guy with 66 career homeruns and 2 HR Derby trophies.

If this had been the end of a hard fought negotiation, then it would be easier to accept. It's not, though.

5 years and $100 million, perhaps with a vesting option for a 6th year. Maybe 5 years at $110 million. That might have been enough to keep Lester. We simply do not know, though. We'll never know. Which is why this whole situation pisses me off so much.

Photo Credit: Barry Chin/Boston Globe

I'm not a fan of Yoenis Cespedes

The Red Sox traded Jon Lester along with Jonny Gomes to Oakland for an outfielder with decent power who doesn't get on base as often as you'd like.

That's Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes will also be costing the Sox $10.5 million in 2015, and is scheduled to hit free agency after that.

He's 28, but he's also Cuban, so let's call it 28ish.

He hit 26 homeruns last year and 23 the year before. He's on pace to hit a similar amount this year. He'll probably be more of a power hitter in Fenway's friendly confines. Nevertheless, his career OBP is .318, and that just sucks for someone you want to hit in the middle of the lineup. He doesn't walk much, he does strike out a lot, he doesn't see lots of pitches.

He's an improvement, don't get me wrong. He's a solid player, he's better than anything the Sox have in the outfield today. But he's what you get for your Ace? For the guy who was your playoffs MVP last year? For a guy who won games for you this year even with some of the worst run support in baseball?

The Red Sox didn't sign Lester because they were worried about the future. So the future is this 20-30 HR outfielder who strikes out a lot and struggles to get on base 30% of the time? That's the future the Sox intend to build?

Photo Credit: Getty Images/Ezra Shaw

The Oakland A's had Moneyball, the Red Sox have Cheapball

The Red Sox don't want to spend to keep Jon Lester. He's over 30, and John Henry recently read a study about teams overpaying for players over 30, and underpaying players under 30. Jon Lester is 31, so the Red Sox don't want to overpay to keep him. That's why the Sox might even ship Lester before Thursday's trade deadline.

The study John Henry is partially basing this significant baseball decision on makes sense. It makes sense that a player over 30, who has proven what they can consistently do at the Major League level, would get more money, even more money than their production merits. Such players come with guarantees, or at least the closest things to guarantees you can get. There's also a short supply of such players, and high demand, which drives the cost up.

For the Sox to keep Lester, they'd have to "overpay" for what Lester gives them. So what? When has that stopped the Sox before? They overpaid to extend David Ortiz, they overpaid to bring Stephen Drew back. So Drew is worth $10 million a year and Lester only worth $17.5 million? That's what the Sox offered Lester before the 2014 season.

The Sox have also been able to benefit from Lester while underpaying him. He makes $13M this season, and made under $12M in 2013. Before that he never got paid more than $8 million a year.

One problem facing Henry and his value study is that the high end SP market is overwhelmingly made up of pitchers 30+ years old, with a few 29 year olds mixed in. Henry's philosophy pegs him into a corner, since there are essentially no proven, high end SP free agents under 30, he'll never be able to sign one OR re-sign one. Meanwhile, the rest of baseball seems happy to sign these guys. So while Henry can pat himself on the back for saving money, other teams will win games thanks to their overpaid players.

Overpay to win, or save to lose?

John Henry's unwillingness to overpay for 30+ year old talent is like someone buying a 6-pack of beer and staying home by themselves on a Friday night because drinks at bars are more expensive. He'll keep more cash in his pocket but the people who went out will have more fun.

There's no salary cap in baseball. The Red Sox are one of the most valuable sports teams in the world. Their cash flow is one of their biggest competitive advantages. The Sox can overpay for a key player and not be crippled by it. Yet they're the ones being cheap? Because of a study?

John Henry doesn't want to exploit that edge. He's figured out that the 29 other teams are wasting money, and he won't do it. He'll get his 6-pack of beer and drink by himself while other teams are having fun at the World Series.

Had Jon Lester's contract expired after the 2012 season, John Henry might have used this study to justify not re-signing him then. Lester would have been 29, and Henry might have wanted to avoid signing a soon-to-be 30 year old to a long term deal. So if Lester had been a free agent before the 2013 season, it's possible that Henry wouldn't have wanted to sign him.

What would that have meant for the 2013 season? There wouldn't have been a parade in Boston.

Parades are expensive. John Henry and the Red Sox have become cheap.

Photo Credit: AP

It's more expensive to replace Jon Lester than to sign him

Against the Royals Sunday, Jon Lester threw 8 scoreless innings, allowing only 4 hits and striking out 8. It was his 10th win of the season for a team that's had difficulty reaching .500. Lester is 4th in the AL in ERA (2.50), 8th in WHIP (1.12), 6th in strikeouts (142), 4th in innings (137.0), tied for 5th in quality starts (15), and 8th in opposing OPS (.634).

The Red Sox are 13-7 (.650) when he pitches, 33-45 (.428) when he doesn't. This year if you have tickets to a Jon Lester game, you're 52% more likely to see a Red Sox win. Even though he's 41st in run support (3.35 runs per game). Only 3 other full-time AL starters get worse run support (Jake Peavy is one of them).

With each victory, his impending contract grows fatter and fatter.

But is he worth the years? Is he worth the dollars? What if the cost is $150 million for 6 years? What if it's more?

Wrong questions. The question isn't "Is Jon Lester worth X?" The question is "What would Jon Lester cost to replace?"

You might replace Jon Lester with another ace-like pitcher, which would require a similarly juicy contract. So unless you acquire someone better, what's the point? Or you could also replace him with a combination of pitchers and hitters that improve the team, spreading that money among several arms and bats. However, buying enough arms and bats to make up for Lester's absence would cost more than keeping Lester.

It's usually unwise to take a team that needs a complete overhaul, like the Red Sox, and do something that makes them worse. It's like being out of food in your house, and deciding to throw out your refrigerator before you go get groceries. You're giving yourself a much bigger problem to deal with.

This team's lineup is in horrible shape. Two starters in Sunday's game had averages below .200. Six had averages below .250. The 2015 Sox will need a catcher, two guys on the left side of the infield, along with a couple of outfielders. Looking farther ahead, David Ortiz turns 39 in a few months. So that bat will need to be replaced someday.

Taking Lester out of the equation would put more onus on the offense to carry this team. Which means the team would need to spend money to fill these holes in the lineup. Lots of money. The Red Sox seem to want to give young, inexpensive talent a chance to find a place in the Majors. Without Lester, however, an offense like that will be losing games 5-3 instead of winning them 3-2.

The offense needs work. Keeping Jon Lester will ensure that the cost of that work doesn't need to be catastrophically expensive in order to win.

Lester's leaving would also affect the bullpen. He's averaging 6.85 innings per start. If you assume the 9th being pitched by the closer, on average Lester's starts require a mere 0.15 innings of middle-relief work. Remove Lester from the rotation and now the bullpen is forced to use another set-up guy once a week. Add that to the cost of not signing Lester.

The most obvious area affected by Lester's departure would be the rotation. The unfortunate truth of Boston baseball in 2014 is that the Sox rotation after Lester and John Lackey is weak and unreliable. And Lackey turns 36 in October. He also has a potential payday ahead of him, or a retirement.

The Sox are 12th in team ERA this year at 3.76. Remove Lester and the team ERA increases to 3.99, 21st in baseball.

The Sox are 7th in quality starts with 58. Lester's 15 are slightly more than a fourth of those. Without them the Sox have 43, which would put them in 25th. Even if the Sox replaced Lester with a guy who had 10 quality starts at this point, the Sox would fall from 7th to 14th.

Lester lifts the rotation, balancing out the weakness and unreliability at the bottom with strength and consistency at the top.

Replacing Jon Lester with another pitcher of his caliber will cost the same as signing Jon Lester. If the Sox let Lester walk, they'll spend more money in other areas to make up for his absence. Another starting pitcher would need to be signed, the bullpen would need to be bolstered, the offense would need to be dramatically improved to make up for the weaker starting pitching.

The less expensive thing to do is to sign Jon Lester. Even if the money seems absurd, even if he's 36 at the end of the deal and the Sox are weighed down by a $25M/year salary, it will be cheaper than trying to improve the team once he's gone.

Photo Credit:
Michael Dwyer/AP Photo

Red Sox will have homefield advantage if they make 2014 World Series

That headline is kind of a jerk move. My point is that the reality of this lost season is starting to sink in. This is no longer an abstract notion of a World Series winning team stuck in last place, failure is becoming concrete. Homefield advantage in the World Series was determined Tuesday night and nobody in Boston cared. The trade deadline approaches and Sox fans who last year wanted to get Jake Peavy now want to get something for Peavy. Fan favorites like Jonny Gomes and Koji Uehara could be shipped elsewhere, heroes of the past exchanged for future potential, a clear demonstration of present irrelevance.

How did we get here? How do we get out?

Everything that came together for the 2013 Sox came apart in 2014. Daniel Nava went back to being Daniel Nava. Shane Victorino went back to the DL. So did Clay Buchholz. The third most important offensive player in 2013, Jacoby Ellsbury, was lost and not replaced. Another key contributor, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, was lost and replaced by AJ Pierzynski, a man so detestable he would have rivaled Josh Beckett for most hated on the infamous 2012 Sox.

This team was built with more hope than players. Go back to the off-season. Hopefully Grady Sizemore works out. Hopefully Jackie Bradley Jr. and Xander Bogaerts become Rookie of the Year candidates. Hopefully Will Middlebrooks turns himself around. Hopefully young pitchers step up in the rotation and bullpen.

It's one thing to be optimistic about young players, it's another thing to let yourself become dependent on them. Hope is something you hold up and let inspire you, not something you lean on.

So how do we change things going forward?

Step #1: Sign Jon Lester
Imagine the 2014 Sox without him. Imagine the 2013 Sox without him. Imagine trying to build a winner in 2015 without him. How would you do that?

The Red Sox, as bad as they are in 2014, are 12-7 (.631) when Lester starts. They're 31-45 (.408) in all other games. If Lester leaves the Red Sox are barely a .400 team. Lester is the first step forward because losing him would be a significant step backward.

Step #2: Send the kids back to Pawtucket
Will Middlebrooks, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr., all of them earned their shot at the Majors, all of them have failed. JBJ can field but is an awful hitter. Bogaerts can't hit or field. The Sox had no contingency plans if these guys didn't succeed right away. Reliable players should fill these spots until the kids are ready to try again. The Sox don't need to overspend, as they did for Stephen Drew. They just need reliability. And they need infielders who can field their positions.

Step #3: Sign Lackey to a legit deal
Don't try to be cute and exercise Lackey's $500,000 option. You can sign him to a real contract on favorable terms. Unlike with Lester, the Sox actually have negotiating leverage with Lackey because of that cheap option. They can keep him at a rate less expensive than replacing him, but still giving him the dignity and respect he has earned the last year and a half.

Step #4: Get hitters
The Red Sox seem gun-shy to spend money to get a big hitter. Maybe the bad tastes of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford remain in their proverbial mouths. The Sox don't need to get All-Star sluggers. Just get guys who can add depth to the lineup after the 5th hitter.

Part of this step is to stop signing fill-in guys to 1 or 2 year deals because you have a minor leaguer earmarked for that position in 2016 or 2017. This goes back to depending too much on AAA players to help your Major League team. Sign legit Major Leaguers to normal Major League deals, and if in 2 years you have two guys who can play the same position, make a trade. I'd much rather have two short-stops and have options, than be forced to depend on a 21-year old kid to adjust to the Majors and have no options if he fails.

Kurt Suzuki will be a free agent catcher. He's hitting .309. Hanley Ramirez might cost too much, but he can play either position on the left side of the infield. Asdrubal Cabrera isn't a great hitter, but he's decent, and probably won't cost much at short. It would be nice to take Nelson Cruz away from the Orioles or Melky Cabrera from the Jays. There are bats available for hire. Hire some.

The Sox will need a catcher, a short-stop, a third baseman, and a new outfield. Brock Holt can fill only one of those holes each night. There's plenty of good and very good talent out there to compile a lineup that is strong at the top and deep throughout.

ESPN gives the Red Sox a 2.4% chance at making the playoffs in 2014. That's slightly less than your chance of hitting a number in roulette. Thankfully, the Sox are capable of making moves and giving themselves the house edge to make the 2015 playoffs.

Jon Lester Officially an Ace

Monday night Jon Lester was promoted from being a very good pitcher, to being an Ace. What's the difference? Ace is frequently capitalized. It's the most powerful card in the deck. It's an honor bestowed to fighter pilots who shoot down 5+ enemy planes. And it's a designation reserved for starting pitchers who are the rarest of the rare. It's for pitchers who make winning easy for their team. And that's what Lester has done in this World Series.

Lester was ruthlessly efficient. He only needed 91 pitches to go 7.2 innings, or 3.96 pitches per out, 11.9 pitches per inning. He struck out 7. He allowed a solo homerun. He didn't walk anybody.

In the 2013 playoffs Lester is 4-1 with a 1.56 ERA. He's struck out 29 in 34.2 innings, and allowed 8 walks and 25 hits for a WHIP of 0.952 WHIP. Which is ridiculously low for a starter.

David Ortiz might steal World Series MVP away from Lester. Although co-MVPs have been awarded before (2001: Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson), and we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves. However, Ortiz was 3 for 4 Monday night with a double and an RBI. He's hitting .733 in the World Series, with 6 RBI, 5 runs scored, 2 doubles, 2 homeruns, an OBP of .789, SLG of 1.267, OPS of 2.056. He hasn't struck out since Game 2 of the ALCS against Detroit.

David Ross was inserted into the lineup for his defense. His bat made the difference in this game. The ground rule double he hit in the 7th knocked in the game-winning run. And he nearly scored himself on a Jacoby Ellsbury single. It took a great throw from Shane Robinson to eliminate Ross at the plate.

Koji Uehara ended the game, of course. That's 7 saves in the playoffs for Uehara. His emergence as closer after injuries to Hanrahan and Bailey might be the most important development of a very special season for the Boston Red Sox.

Game 6 Wednesday night at Fenway. The Sox have a chance to clinch a World Series in their home ballpark for the first time since 1918. John Lackey faces Michael Wacha.

Photo Credit:
Jeff Curry-USA Today Sports

Red Sox Take Advantage of Cardinals Sins

Both the Cardinals and the umpires had a rough 1st inning. At least the umpires were able to confer and undo their mistake. Unlike the umps, the Cards didn't come together as a team and help each other out. They kept making mistakes. The worst was Adam Wainwright calling for an infield pop-up, then just standing there as the ball fell between he and his catcher.

The Red Sox took advantage of these mistakes, as they've done throughout the playoffs. Mike Napoli's bases clearing double took advantage of Pete Kozma's fielding error in the 1st. Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz knocked in runs in the 2nd after Wainwright let that ball drop.

Wainwright's pitching was worse than his fielding. If not for his right-fielders making two great catches, he might have given up 9 runs. Carlos Beltran robbed David Ortiz of a Grand Slam in the 2nd, and Shane Robinson took away extra bases (at least a triple, maybe more) from Dustin Pedroia in the 5th. Even when the Sox made outs they hit the ball hard off Wainwright.

Ortiz and Pedroia combined for 4 hits, 4 RBI, and 4 runs. If not for those catches by St. Louis right-fielders, they would have combined for 6 hits, and perhaps 8 RBI and 6 runs.

Jon Lester pitched brilliantly. He set the tone early, allowing only one baserunner in the first three innings and striking out 4. In the middle innings he had to work through some jams. In the 4th he escaped a bases-loaded, 1 out situation by inducing a double-play ball. A double play which he initiated, 1-2-3. He finished the game with 8 strikeouts and only walked 1 Cardinal, allowing 5 hits and 0 runs in his 7.2 innings.

Lester has been Ace-like in the postseason, starting each series with a topnotch performance. In ALDS Game 1 he went 7.2 and allowed 2 runs, striking out 7. In ALCS Game 1 he lost 1-0 but pitched well, 6.1 innings and only 1 run allowed. And now this start in the World Series opener. He's 3-1 in the playoffs with a 1.67 ERA. If baseball had a Conn Smythe type of trophy for postseason MVP, he'd be the leading candidate.

The Red Sox have won 9 straight World Series games, and haven't lost a game in the Fall Classic since 1986.

John Lackey takes the mound Thursday night to face rookie Michael Wacha. Wacha only started 9 games this year. He's been lights-out in the playoffs, with a 3-0 record, a 0.43 ERA in 21 innings, striking out 22, allowing only 8 hits, and only walking 4. So to say he's doing well is something of an understatement. The Red Sox need Lackey to continue to perform at the high level he has pitched in the postseason.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo/Charles Krupa

Red Sox Escape Detroit in Drivers' Seat

The Red Sox have adjusted to Anibal Sanchez since Game 1. They got their first hit of the series off him in the 1st inning. Then scored the first run off him in the 2nd. The Sox came out swinging in this game. They were not on the backfoot, not on the defensive. As we've seen all season with this team, losing only makes them more aggressive and ferocious in their next game. They don't fall back and regroup. They instantly counterattack. Like a cornered animal.

Mike Napoli spearheaded the Red Sox offense. He went 3 for 4 with a double and a homerun. He's hitting .375 in the series. His solo homerun in Game 3 was what gave the Sox a 1-0 lead (and eventual win). His solo homerun in Game 5 turned out to be the difference in Game 5. In a series of three one-run games, Napoli's two solo homeruns have won two games.

Jon Lester was not Ace-like in this game. He didn't have to be. He played with fire throughout his 5.1 innings, giving up 7 hits and walking 3. Though he never got burnt. Only 2 runs scored on his watch but his inability to go deep into the game made the Sox vulnerable. Lester did his job, but he also made the jobs of others harder.

I like Junichi Tazawa, but I don't trust him. Not in a 1-run game. I have partial trust in Craig Breslow, barely enough for a 1-run game. I trust Koji Uehara implicitly, any game, any situation. Red Sox starters need to pitch into the 7th inning in order to avoid exposing the soft underbelly of the bullpen. Breslow and Uehara are the only bullpen arms Sox fans should want to see in the late innings.

The series returns to Boston Saturday evening at 4:30pm. Clay Buchholz faces Max Scherzer. I honestly have no idea what to expect in that game. And that's what has made this series such a thrill to watch.

Photo Credit:
USA Today

Red Sox Win First Playoff Game In 5 Years

It's been 4 years since Boston hosted playoff baseball. It's been 5 years since we've seen our team win a playoff game. That drought came to an end Friday afternoon thanks to a flood of Red Sox runs, and an outstanding performance by Jon Lester.

The play of the game was a miscue by Rays right-fielder Wil Myers. Pitcher Matt Moore was cruising until the 4th inning when David Ortiz hit a long fly to deep right-field. As Myers tracked the ball, he waved off the center-fielder. Myers suddenly stopped and ran away from where the ball was going to land, as if he'd heard center-fielder Desmond Jennings call him off. The ball landed, bouncing into the Red Sox bullpen for a ground-rule double.

I have a strong suspicion that some of the Sox relievers in the bullpen yelled at Myers, "calling" for the fly-ball, making the 22-year old rookie think that his teammate was right behind him, waiting to make the catch. Center-fielders typically have the authority to wave off other outfielders when trying to catch fly-balls.

So instead of 1 on and 1 out, the Sox had runners on 2nd and 3rd with 0 outs. A 5-run rally ensued. Jonny Gomes hit a wall-ball double, Stephen Drew ran out an infield single that saw Gomes hustle to score from second. Will Middlebrooks hit a double, knocking in Drew. Then Shane Victorino singled to drive Middlebrooks in.

Myers received quite a bit of heckling from the Fenway crowd after the play, which was scored a double and not an error. However, Tampa Bay pitcher Matt Moore should be forced to eat a few slices of the proverbial blame pie. After the miscue, Moore allowed two more doubles in the inning, four hits total, he failed to cover first base in time on Drew's single, then didn't notice Gomes running home in time to throw him out. And in the next inning Moore allowed more doubles, more runs, and was eventually pulled.

So blame Myers for the rally starting, and blame Moore for the size of the rally.

Every Sox starter got a hit in the game and scored a run. The only two who didn't record an RBI were Pedroia and Ortiz.

Meanwhile, Jon Lester dominated the Rays with the exception of 2 pitches. He allowed a pair of homeruns, although crucially they were solo homeruns. He only allowed 6 baserunners in his 7.2 innings, and he struck out 7, including the first 4 Rays he faced. He established his dominance in the 1st by striking out the side, and he shut down the Rays in the top of the 5th after his teammates gave him a lead. Lester pitched like an Ace in his first postseason game since 2009.

John Lackey faces David Price Saturday evening at 5:37 P.M.. Lackey pitches better at Fenway which is why he gets the ball for Game 2 and not Clay Buchholz.

Photo Credit:
Bob DeChiara - USA Today Sports

Jon Lester Acelike in Playofflike Victory

I haven't been this impressed with Jon Lester for a long, long time. He got the call to face the probable AL Cy Young winner, he had to pitch great to give his team a chance to win, and he answered the challenge. He was Acelike.

Seven innings, only 1 run allowed. He scattered 8 hits, he didn't walk anyone, he struck out 9. He worked his way out of trouble, including a bases loaded, 2 out situation in the 5th.

Will Middlebrooks made an error that helped create that jam, but he atoned for that miscue with a 2-run single in the bottom of the inning. That was the winning hit.

Lester had three 1-2-3 innings, including striking out the side in the 3rd and grounding out the side in the 4th. Miguel Cabrera, who had previously done very well against Lester, was held to an 0 for 4 night with a strikeout.

Then the bullpen did their thing, 4 pitchers combining for 2 scoreless innings. Koji Uehara only needed 9 pitches in the 9th, striking out 2.

To sum up, Lester outpitched the best pitcher in the AL. The Red Sox outscored the best offense in the AL. That's a pretty nice win right there.

Rubber game tonight as Ryan Dempster faces Rick Porcello. This game should be more high scoring as Porcello is very hittable (4.44 ERA this season and a 1.46 WHIP in August) and Dempster has been struggling (6.75 ERA in August).

Photo Credit:
Winslow Townson/Getty Images

Red Sox Lose Potential Postseason Preview

Monday afternoon's game felt like a playoff game. It was close, the pitching was good, there were some impressive defensive plays. And timely hitting (or a lack thereof) determined the outcome.

Against teams that would currently be in the playoffs, the Red Sox have an 18-17 record. That includes their 2-1 series victory over the Dodgers, and a 16-16 record against AL playoff teams. However, that record is weighted heavily by their season series with Tampa Bay, which the Sox lead 10-6. The Red Sox are now 1-3 against Detroit, 2-4 against the Rangers, and 3-3 against the A's. Taking the Rays out of the equation, the Sox are 8-11 against playoff teams.

I'm not trying to poop in the punch bowl and ruin the party. What I am saying is that in one month's time when the Sox are in the playoffs, they can't let opportunities slip by like they did Monday afternoon. The Sox were 0 for 11 with runners in scoring position yesterday. They grounded into 3 double plays.

One play sums up this game for the Sox. Jarrod Saltalamacchia's failed sacrifice bunt in the 7th. With 2 on and 0 outs in a 2 run game, I don't like the idea of bunting in that situation to begin with. That being said, if you do bunt, it has to be executed. Saltalamacchia bunted straight into the ground, it hopped high and in front of Tigers catcher Alex Avila, who made a bare-handed grab and an excellent throw to third to eliminate Daniel Nava. It was a useless out.

That miscue was one of several missed chances for the Sox. It was also one of several very good defensive plays made by the Tigers, some made by old friend Jose Iglesias (why are former Red Sox players always called "old friend?").

This was a close game and Detroit made all the big and small plays that gave them the victory. That's what happens in playoff baseball.

The Red Sox can do better. And they're going to have to in order to win tonight. They face 19-1 Max Scherzer. Some of the Sox have good numbers against him in the past (Ellsbury is 5 for 9 with 5 RBI, Ortiz is 7 for 13 with 3 homers, Saltalamacchia is 5 for 12). But Scherzer is pitching like a completely different person this year. So it's up to Jon Lester to try to match him. Or at least keep the Sox in the game until they can get to Detroit's bullpen. Lester's riding a streak of 5 straight Quality Starts, and he finished August with a 2.97 ERA.

However, the Tigers have frighteningly good numbers against Lester. Combined they're hitting .397 off him, with a 1.061 OPS. Miguel Cabrera's status will be key as he's 10 for 16 (.625) against Lester. So Lester has to step up and beat hitters who have beaten him in the past.

If the Sox win tonight's game, they'll have proven quite a bit about themselves, and convinced me that they're ready for playoff baseball.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo/Winslow Townson

Can Jon Lester Respond to Matt Moore?

What Matt Moore did last night was demonstrate to Red Sox fans what an Ace can do for a team. It's something we haven't seen the likes of here since Josh Beckett's 2007 season.

The Rays didn't get an extra-base hit, yet they won. They didn't need to use their bullpen at all. Because of one pitcher having a great night and continuing his great season.

No Red Sox batter saw more than 15 total pitches from Moore. Only Mike Napoli saw that many. Seven Red Sox batters saw 12 or fewer pitches in their at-bats. Moore only needed 10 pitches to retire Jacoby Ellsbury 4 times.

Hopefully this was just the Red Sox running into a hot pitcher. Moore had won 5 straight starts coming into last night's game, and had an ERA of 1.91 in that stretch. So beating him was going to be tough.

Yesterday, I wrote a post about the Red Sox winning because of their character. Even character can't beat great pitching. The character part comes into play tonight as the Sox need to rebound from their night of silent bats. They're facing Roberto Hernandez who is 5-10 with a 4.90 ERA on the season. He's lost 4 of his last 6 starts.

Jon Lester, who has yet to prove he has the same levels of character as his teammates, is on the mound for the Sox.

This is the day after the Sox were shut down. They're facing a mediocre pitcher. They're tied with Tampa Bay in the loss column. They need something from Lester. Lester can help even up this important 4-game series, or he can give the Rays 1st place.

The team needs a good outing, Lester. Do you have the character to deliver?

Photo Credit:
AP Photo/Charles Krupa