Red Sox almost blow rubber game against Astros

The Red Sox took 2 of 3 from the Astros over the weekend. It could have been a sweep, but the Sox blew Friday night's game. And they almost blew the rubber game on Sunday.

Hanley Ramirez (who didn't know the count at one point during Friday's loss, and stood at home plate after taking ball 4 until the umpire told him he'd walked) hit a 2-run homer on Sunday that won the game. (seriously though, how does a hitter not know the count, especially since there are big green and red lights in left field telling you how many balls and strikes there are?)

Ramirez's homerun came after Alexi Ogando surrendered the lead by allowing 3 runs off a pair of homers in the 7th. For some reason John Farrell didn't take Ogando out, even though this year he has struggled when throwing 25+ pitches (12.1 IP, 12 H, 7 ER in outings of 25+ pitches). Junichi Tazawa was evidently available, as he came in to pitch the 8th. So I really don't know why Farrell left Ogando in, or didn't have someone warming up.

David Ortiz was on base when Hanley homered. He drew a walk. Apart from that his afternoon was quite horrible. He struck out with 2 on and no outs in the 3rd. In the 5th he grounded out with runners on the corners. He's hitting .155 with runners in scoring position this year and that's inexcusable.

Ortiz was playing first base, which thankfully meant Mike Napoli was not in the lineup. Shane Victorino did go 0 for 3 as a heartfelt tribute to Napoli.

Hanley Ramirez had the big hit, but the working class hero of the game was Ryan Hanigan, who hit 3 singles, knocked in 2 runs, and walked.

Eduardo Rodriguez was okay. He held the Astros to 1 run, but his rising pitch count limited him to 5 innings. He struck out 8.

The bullpen is an issue. When every other part of a team struggled, sometimes it's hard to notice a bad bullpen. Now that the bullpen has leads to protect, we're starting to see how vulnerable and shallow it truly is. On Friday night the Sox were tied 8-8 in the 10th inning and were forced to send Noe Ramirez to the mound to make his Major League debut. He gave up 4 runs. This was after Breslow struggled, which was after Masterson made a horrible start.

I'm not dwelling on the negative. The Sox are 6 games out in the AL East. They just took 2 of 3 from a good Houston team. It would be a shame if this last ditch effort to fight for a playoff spot were undermined by a shaky bullpen, a manager who makes bad decisions, hitters who forget what the count is, fielders who forget how many outs there are, and baserunners who don't know when to steal and when not to.

Photo Credit: Steven Senne/Associated Press

Did the Cubs overpay to get Lester, or were the Red Sox too cheap to pay a premium for good pitching?

Jon Lester has reportedly signed with the Chicago Cubs for 6 years and $155 million. The deal includes a vesting option for a 7th year at $15 million. The Red Sox' final offer to reacquire their former #1 pitcher was worth $135 million, also over 6 years.

It's important to note that in March, the Sox offered a 4 year deal to Lester worth $70 million, essentially half of what they offered him in December. Even though they very vocally believe that 30+ year old pitchers aren't worth that kind of money. Except when they are.

Are Theo and the Cubs paying too much for Lester? Toward the end of the deal he'll be north of 35 years old. By then he might be a worn down #3 or #4 starter collecting $25.8 million to make 20 starts a season and to struggle to keep his ERA below 4.50. So it's stupid for the Cubs to pay so much money for that. It's also smart for the Red Sox not to. Or is it?

Top of the line, proven starting pitching is so difficult to find and so necessary to win, that you have to pay a premium to buy it. It's like paying for parking at a Sox game. There's so little of it available, that you shell out a wad of cash to rent a few square feet of asphalt for 5 hours.

Here's another comparison. The amount of money you spend for a beer inside Fenway. You drop $8, $9, even more because a baseball game without beer is a form of torture so cruel they didn't even use it to interrogate detainees at Guantanamo.

Beer at a baseball game is necessary, so it costs more. Parking at Fenway is rare, so it costs more. Quality pitching is something both necessary and rare, so it costs a lot more.

The Red Sox were willing to pay a premium for that quality pitching, just not as much as the Cubs were willing to pay. But don't mock the Cubs for eventually paying a 36-year old pitcher $25.8 million, or praise the Red Sox for their financial prudence. Your Sox were willing to pay the same guy $22.5 million. That $3.3 million difference is probably how much panda related revenue the Sox will be hauling in per season.

Making fun of the Cubs and praising the Red Sox for this would be like going to Fenway, buying a $9 Bud Light, and making fun of the guy who spent $10 for a Sam Adams.

Just a few days ago, the Sox seemed to have a win right now approach to the off-season, spending $22M/year for Hanley Ramirez and $19M/year for Pablo Sandoval. To win right now, however, you need pitching. And the Sox have none of that. Clay Buchholz isn't just your "ace," he's the entire rotation.

Is it dumb to spend $155 million for Lester? Which is dumber, spending that much for an aging pitcher, or having Clay Buchholz be your #1 starter?

There's still pitching available out there. But at a cost of big money and/or top prospects. With Lester off the market, the supply of quality pitching has decreased, yet the demand/need remains the same. If the Sox don't want to pay the required premium for that pitching, then maybe Sox fans should learn a lesson from them and be prudent with their money, and maybe not pay the required premium for parking or beer at Fenway. Or for tickets.

Photo Credit:
Frank Gunn/AP

One Year Later, the Red Sox-Dodgers Deal Still a Mistake for LA

The Dodgers are the best team in baseball right now. It's almost a year since they acquired Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Josh Beckett from the Red Sox. Both the Red Sox and Dodgers have improved dramatically since that deal. The Sox lead their division, the Dodgers have played .800+ baseball their last 50 games. So both teams made a good deal. Right?

No.

Last year's colossal salary dump was good for the Red Sox. It gave the team freedom to spend on role players, and it banished Josh Beckett from the clubhouse. For the Dodgers, they took on massive payroll and what have they gotten from it? Beckett has been a bust. Carl Crawford has hit 5 homeruns this season. He's hitting .291 and has stolen 11 bases. He's back to being a decent player, but hardly worth the $20 million he gets paid. He's knocked in 21 runs. I know he's a leadoff hitter in the NL, but 21 RBI? Really?

Adrian Gonzalez is doing well. He leads the Dodgers in average (.296), homeruns (16), and RBI (77). He leads these categories because Hanley Ramirez (.348 BA), and Yasiel Puig (.346) don't have as many at-bats.

Before Puig burst from his chrysalis in June and began his methodical campaign of destruction in the National League, the Dodgers were 23-32. They were 13-13 in April, despite Adrian Gonzalez's 18 RBI and .398 OBP that month. They were 10-17 in May despite Gonzalez's 22 RBI, 5 HRs, and .886 OPS.

In other words, Adrian Gonzalez, even when hitting well, wasn't enough to win. The team needed Puig. And pitching. And Hanley Ramirez. And pitching. Pitching is why this team has won as many games as it has.

Clayton Kershaw is 12-7 with a 1.72 ERA. He's thrown 10 straight Quality Starts, dating back to late June. 22 Quality Starts in total.

Supporting him are Zach Greinke (12-3, 2.91 ERA, 9-1 in his last 10 decisions) and Hyun-Jin Ryu (12-4, 2.95 ERA). As a team the Dodgers have 71 Quality Starts. Their team ERA since the All-Star break is 2.25, best in the Majors. And in August it's 2.05. They've converted 93% of save opportunities since the All-Star break. That's why their winning.

How unimportant is Adrian Gonzalez to the Dodgers' success? August has been his worst month of the season (.317 OBP, .390 SLG, .707 OPS, 1 HR, 12 RBI, 4 walks, 13 strikeouts). The Dodgers are 17-3 in August. Gonzalez did well in April and May and the team lost. He's slowed down in August as his team has sped up. He's just not that important to them.

Then again, Carl Crawford is doing well in August (.380 OBP, .791 OPS), so maybe he's the reason the Dodgers are kicking so much ass.

Or maybe it's Kershaw (1.23 ERA in August). Puig (.886 OPS in August). Greinke (4-0, 0.96 ERA in August), Ryu (3-1, 2.03 ERA in August), and the rest of the Dodgers who were NOT acquired in last year's mega-trade.

On the field, that deal didn't hurt them. Both Gonzalez and Crawford have certainly helped, albeit at a ghastly price. The deal hasn't helped them that much, though. And certainly not as much as other deals they've made. Here are the transactions that have mad the difference for the Dodgers:

June 2006: Drafting Clayton Kershaw
June 2012: Signing Yasiel Puig as an amateur free agent (making 29 GMs kick themselves)
July 2012: Trading with the Marlins for Hanley Ramirez
December 2012: Purchasing the contract of Hyun-Jin Ryu from South Korean team Hanwah
December 2012: Signing Zach Greinke as a free agent

So the Dodgers did make some important deals in 2012. The Gonzalez-Crawford-Beckett deal was perhaps 5th or 6th most important on that list. But they had Gonzalez and Crawford when they sucked in April and May. It wasn't until Puig emerged, Ramirez got healthy, and the pitchers gelled that the team started winning. Gonzalez and Crawford have marginally helped in that winning, but the Dodgers could have acquired marginal contributors for much less than the $42 million those two cost per season.

The addition of Gonzalez and Crawford has been meaningless to the Dodgers' success.

So in conclusion, last year's deal between the Red Sox and Dodgers was still, in and of itself, a bad deal for the Dodgers. It only seems good now because of the other deals the Dodgers made. Those deals are why they are as red hot (or blue hot) as they are.