Fate of the 2015 Red Sox to be decided in the next 4 weeks

In 4 weeks we'll know if the 2015 Red Sox season will be something to be ashamed of, or proud of. Will the 2015 Sox be an embarrassing failure or an inspiring success? Will they be potential buyers at the July 31st trade deadline, or sellers?

The Sox beat the Blue Jays 4-3 Tuesday night, ending June with a 3-game win streak and a 14-14 record for the month. It was only the third 3-game win streak of the season. They have yet to push any of those to 4 games. It's said that momentum is only as good as next day's starting pitcher. Unfortunately Wednesday's starter for the Sox is 4-8 Rick Porcello. So my hopes aren't too high that the Sox will extend their streak to 4.

Now is the time to get busy winning or get busy losing. It's July. The trade deadline looms at the end of the month. If the Sox can't win their way back into the hunt, they will be compelled to be sellers at the deadline. If out of contention at the end of the month, they can't afford to pass up the opportunity to rid themselves of dead weight and/or acquire promising talent for the near future.

A 6 game deficit in the division and for the wild cards doesn't seem like much. However, 4 teams stand in the Sox' way in the AL East, and 9 for the wild card spots. Some of those teams are bound to get hot, so closing the gap against them will not be easy.

The Sox play 16 of their next 18 against good teams. Ground must be gained during this stretch. They don't have to gain 3 or 4 games a week, but over the next 4 weeks they must steadily close the gap between them and a playoff spot. Treading water isn't good enough. It's time to swim.

The Sox can't afford more 3 game losing streaks (they had 5 of those in May). No more settling for split series, or taking 2 of 3 from one team then losing 2 of 3 to another. Playing .500 baseball won't be enough to bring the Sox closer to a playoff spot.

Porcello will likely make 5 starts in July. It's time for him to do his job, or at the very least stop sucking so terribly at it. Clay Buchholz needs to stay healthy and sharp. If the Sox get themselves in the race, he needs to handle the pressure of pitching in meaningful games again. And Eddie Rodriguez needs to stop tipping his pitches. Watching him on the mound is like watching an instructional video on poker tells.

Photo Credit: Frank Gunn/The Canadian Press via AP

Jon Lester Officially an Ace

Monday night Jon Lester was promoted from being a very good pitcher, to being an Ace. What's the difference? Ace is frequently capitalized. It's the most powerful card in the deck. It's an honor bestowed to fighter pilots who shoot down 5+ enemy planes. And it's a designation reserved for starting pitchers who are the rarest of the rare. It's for pitchers who make winning easy for their team. And that's what Lester has done in this World Series.

Lester was ruthlessly efficient. He only needed 91 pitches to go 7.2 innings, or 3.96 pitches per out, 11.9 pitches per inning. He struck out 7. He allowed a solo homerun. He didn't walk anybody.

In the 2013 playoffs Lester is 4-1 with a 1.56 ERA. He's struck out 29 in 34.2 innings, and allowed 8 walks and 25 hits for a WHIP of 0.952 WHIP. Which is ridiculously low for a starter.

David Ortiz might steal World Series MVP away from Lester. Although co-MVPs have been awarded before (2001: Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson), and we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves. However, Ortiz was 3 for 4 Monday night with a double and an RBI. He's hitting .733 in the World Series, with 6 RBI, 5 runs scored, 2 doubles, 2 homeruns, an OBP of .789, SLG of 1.267, OPS of 2.056. He hasn't struck out since Game 2 of the ALCS against Detroit.

David Ross was inserted into the lineup for his defense. His bat made the difference in this game. The ground rule double he hit in the 7th knocked in the game-winning run. And he nearly scored himself on a Jacoby Ellsbury single. It took a great throw from Shane Robinson to eliminate Ross at the plate.

Koji Uehara ended the game, of course. That's 7 saves in the playoffs for Uehara. His emergence as closer after injuries to Hanrahan and Bailey might be the most important development of a very special season for the Boston Red Sox.

Game 6 Wednesday night at Fenway. The Sox have a chance to clinch a World Series in their home ballpark for the first time since 1918. John Lackey faces Michael Wacha.

Photo Credit:
Jeff Curry-USA Today Sports

Red Sox Win Game 4 Unobstructed

This series just gets weirder and weirder. Saturday night gives us the first ever walk-off obstruction call in World Series history. Sunday night gives us the first ever game-ending pickoff in World Series history.

The 2013 Red Sox find a way to to support each other. When one player struggles or makes a mistake, the others make up for their teammate's failures. John Lackey, normally a starter, pitched a scoreless 8th inning, bridging the gap between Junichi Tazwawa and Koji Uehara when Craig Breslow couldn't get an out. That's how the Sox have done it all season. Even when your starter is hurt and only manages to pitch 4 innings, a guy like Felix Doubront enters the game and pitches 2.2 innings of quality relief. He was charged with a run, but that was Breslow's fault.

While some members of the Red Sox picked up their teammates, others stepped up and made the big plays that decided the game. None more than David Ortiz and Jonny Gomes Sunday night.

Ortiz is red hot in the World Series. He's 8 for 11 with 2 homeruns and a double. That double came Sunday night, leading off the 5th. After Ortiz reached second base, he looked into the Red Sox dugout and screamed words of encouragement to his teammates in English and Spanish. ¡Vámonos! He eventually scored on a Stephen Drew sac-fly.

Before the 6th inning Ortiz gave a motivational speech to his teammates in the dugout. And then Jonny Gomes hit the 3-run homerun that pushed the Sox to victory. How much did the pep-talk affect Gomes? There's no way to accurately measure that. Although in the postgame press conference Sunday night, Gomes beamed as he talked about Ortiz and his leadership.

Jonny Gomes hasn't gotten a lot of hits this year. But the hits he gets mean a lot.

In 2013 David Ortiz has taken on more of a leadership role. He isn't just everyone's friend in the clubhouse. He's expecting more from his teammates and pushing them to push themselves. After the game he spoke about what he told his teammates before the 6th:

"Let's loosen up... What got us to this level is doing what we normally do. If you run, run. If you play defense, play defense. If you hit, hit. If you pitch, you pitch. That's all it takes to win games. And it clicked."

I'm not looking forward to Craig Breslow's next appearance. He's looked dreadful in this series. Without him the bullpen gets stretched very thin. That means the starters must go deeper into games.

Hopefully that's exactly what Jon Lester does Monday night. He faces Adam Wainwright in a rematch of Game 1.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo/The St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Chris Lee

Red Sox Escape Detroit in Drivers' Seat

The Red Sox have adjusted to Anibal Sanchez since Game 1. They got their first hit of the series off him in the 1st inning. Then scored the first run off him in the 2nd. The Sox came out swinging in this game. They were not on the backfoot, not on the defensive. As we've seen all season with this team, losing only makes them more aggressive and ferocious in their next game. They don't fall back and regroup. They instantly counterattack. Like a cornered animal.

Mike Napoli spearheaded the Red Sox offense. He went 3 for 4 with a double and a homerun. He's hitting .375 in the series. His solo homerun in Game 3 was what gave the Sox a 1-0 lead (and eventual win). His solo homerun in Game 5 turned out to be the difference in Game 5. In a series of three one-run games, Napoli's two solo homeruns have won two games.

Jon Lester was not Ace-like in this game. He didn't have to be. He played with fire throughout his 5.1 innings, giving up 7 hits and walking 3. Though he never got burnt. Only 2 runs scored on his watch but his inability to go deep into the game made the Sox vulnerable. Lester did his job, but he also made the jobs of others harder.

I like Junichi Tazawa, but I don't trust him. Not in a 1-run game. I have partial trust in Craig Breslow, barely enough for a 1-run game. I trust Koji Uehara implicitly, any game, any situation. Red Sox starters need to pitch into the 7th inning in order to avoid exposing the soft underbelly of the bullpen. Breslow and Uehara are the only bullpen arms Sox fans should want to see in the late innings.

The series returns to Boston Saturday evening at 4:30pm. Clay Buchholz faces Max Scherzer. I honestly have no idea what to expect in that game. And that's what has made this series such a thrill to watch.

Photo Credit:
USA Today

Series Starts Over Again

Once through each team's rotation. The Tigers SPs did much better than the Red Sox. John Lackey was the only Sox starter who outclassed his opponent. Jon Lester was good, but not as good as Anibel Sanchez. Clay Buchholz wasn't good, and Jake Peavy was godawful. Only Detroit's bullpen struggles, Lackey's great start, and David Ortiz's grand slam have kept the series tied 2-2.

Jake Peavy didn't have it Wednesday night. Maybe if Dustin Pedroia turns a double-play then Peavy gets out of the jam and who knows. I'm not going to blame Pedroia for Peavy's poor pitching, though. Pedroia had one chance to bail Peavy out. Peavy had several opportunities to bail himself out.

It's easy to say this in hindsight: I wanted Peavy to be pulled when it was 4-0. He looked terrible. He struggled to throw strikes. And the strikes he threw were far too hittable. Brandon Workman or Ryan Dempster at least provided the possibility that the score would remain 4-0. And if it had, as the Red Sox scored a scattering of runs in the late innings, who knows what might have happened.

Then again, maybe Workman enters in the 2nd inning and gives up three straight homeruns. Who knows.

The Red Sox continue to struggle at the plate. Although in this game they scored their second most runs of the series. They also recorded 12 hits, which is how many they had in Games 1 through 3 combined. They out-hit the Tigers 12 to 9. However the Tigers were 4 for 9 with runners in scoring position, the Sox were 2 for 16. It isn't how many hits you get, it's when you get them.

Jacoby Ellsbury had 4 of those hits, and they mostly wasted. Shane Victorino, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, and Mike Napoli went a combined 0 for 9 with runners in scoring position. That's the 2 through 5 hitters, that's where the offensive production is supposed to be generated.

On the bright side, this is essentially now a best of three series and the Red Sox have homefield advantage. On the not-so-bright side they have to face Sanchez, Scherzer, and Verlander, and win two of three. Which they already have.

Game 5 Thursday night. Anibal Sanchez against Jon Lester. Time for Lester to be an Ace again.

Photo Credit:
Rick Osentoski - USA Today Sports

John Lackey Outduels Justin Bieber... I Mean Verlander

Justin Verlander (not Justin Bieber, as Erin Andrews almost called him during a post-game interview) entered this game with all the momentum and all the hype. And he lived up to that with a fantastic performance. However it wasn't quite as fantastic as the effort John Lackey put in. Verlander went deeper into the game and struck out more batters, but Lackey didn't allow a run at all. He also didn't walk anybody. The few times he was close to being in trouble, he pitched his way out of it. He needed to be absolutely magnificent for the Sox to win, and he delivered.

Mike Napoli also delivered. His 7th inning homerun was only his third hit of the playoffs. In postseason baseball you only need 1 hit to have a good series.

The bullpen continues to roll. The Tigers' starting pitchers have overall done better than their Red Sox counterparts in this series. The reason the Tigers aren't up 2-1 or 3-0 is because the Sox bullpen has significantly outperformed Detroit's. Detroit's bullpen has pitched 5 innings in this series, and allowed 5 runs, all in Game 2. The Red Sox bullpen has been asked to pitch 8.1 innings and has yet to allow a run.

The bullpen is the reason the Red Sox lead the series 2-1.

It's crazy to think that despite three brilliant outings by Tigers starters, and despite Red Sox hitters going 12 for 90 at the plate (.133), the Sox have the edge in the series.

Jake Peavy starts Game 4 for the Red Sox Wednesday night. This type of situation is the reason why the Sox traded for him. His purpose is to add depth to the rotation for moments like this one. Doug Fister will start for Detroit. Peavy has a good track record against the Tigers' lineup, except Miguel Cabrera who has 3 homeruns off him and Torii Hunter who is 7 for 14 against him. The Red Sox faced Fister twice this season. They were shut down on September 2nd, but knocked him around for 6 runs in 3.1 innings in June. Daniel Nava has crushed Fister in the past, going 5 for 12 off him with 3 doubles. Jarrod Saltalamacchia is 5 for 11 against him.

All three games have been incredibly entertaining. And close. If this series goes the full 7, it will be Lackey facing Verlander again.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo/Carlos Asorio

Koji Uehara's High-Five Tour

Thanks to MLB Fan Cave for the video.

So Terry Francona Is a Pretty Good Manager

After the 2011 collapse of the Boston Red Sox, it was time for Terry Francona and the team to part ways. Like a relationship that just wasn't going anywhere and was becoming dysfunctional. And then the Red Sox did the equivalent of going on Facebook to badmouth their ex. Francona was blamed for being unaware of the deep-seeded problems that plagued the Red Sox clubhouse. And if he was aware, he was accused of not having enough respect from the players to do anything about it. And most despicably, he was accused of having a prescription drug problem.

Then in 2012 the Red Sox discovered that the clubhouse was just as toxic without Francona. And the team realized that players like Josh Beckett were the real problem.

Were the Red Sox still smart to let Francona go? I suppose they were. It had to happen. But I do think that if he were managing the same 2013 Red Sox team that John Farrell currently manages, the results would probably be similar. But that's just a hypothetical question.

Anyway, how about those Cleveland Indians? We've heard Francona jokingly remark about his team's success, attributing it to avoiding chicken and beer. I would love to hear what John Henry and Larry Lucchino think of the Indians' success, and how their former manager is doing in Cleveland.

I confess that I don't follow the Indians that closely, and have no idea why or how they went from a 68-94 record in 2012 to a 92-70 record in 2013 (an improvement of 24 wins, very close to the 28 win improvement the Red Sox made from 2012 to 2013). Masterson and Jimenez are pitching much better in 2013, just like how Lester and Lackey are pitching much better in 2013. The Indians have allowed 1.13 runs less per game in 2013 than they did in 2012. That's huge.

How much of that is the manager's doing? Not much. Essentially nothing. The players are playing better. Francona has little to do with that.

And that's what makes Francona a good MLB manager. He doesn't try to do more than manage. He lets his players be themselves. He let Kevin Millar be a goofball. He let Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling be prima donnas. He let Manny be Manny and he let Kevin Youkilis be a prick. And the team won.

That was also Francona's ultimate undoing here in Boston. He let slackers be slackers. But out in Cleveland he has a group of no-names, a couple of has-beens, and a hodgepodge of semi-notable pitchers. Brett Myers found his way into 4 games out there. Jason Giambi, Nick Swisher, Matt Albers, former Devil Ray Scott Kazmir, Mike Aviles. It's like a roster you'd get in a 20-team fantasy baseball league and you didn't have a pick until the 5th round.

So Francona is a good manager because of what he doesn't do. He doesn't try to force people to be something they're not. He doesn't use the media to make examples out of people. He doesn't give inspirational speeches or come up with clever schemes to steal games. He manages with a relaxed confidence, and sometimes teams respond to that and play with the same kind of calm swagger.

Terry Francona isn't the reason the Indians improved by 24 wins. He, in a uniquely Francona way, allowed Masterson, Jimenez, Kazmir, and the rest of the players to become the reason.

Red Sox Eliminate Yankees from Division Race

I completely forgot that when Clay Buchholz got hurt he was 9-0 with a phenomenal ERA. He's now 11-0. If he can pitch up to his capability in October, then the Red Sox have a formidable and deep rotation.

He got better as the game progressed. He struggled with his control at the start, but recovered. He only allowed 2 hits and an "unearned" run (he made the error that led to the run) in his 6 innings. The fact that he maintained strength deep into the game is very promising.

And the offense took advantage of Ivan Nova, who looks like a completely different person from August. The Sox, particularly Daniel Nava, brutalized him in 4 innings. Nava was 4 for 5 with a pair of doubles.

Mike Napoli hit a long homerun to straight away center. His 22nd of the season and 7th against the Yankees this year. His 89 RBI are second best on the team, only 5 behind Ortiz, who also knocked in 2 last night.

The 9-2 victory eliminated the Yankees from the AL East race. The Sox are 1 win away from eliminating the Orioles. The Magic Number to win the division is 4. And the Magic Number to clinch a playoff spot is 3. I did not think I would be discussing Magic Numbers this year.

Speaking of the O's, they'll be in town starting Tuesday night. Ryan Dempster faces 12-10 Scott Feldman. Mike Napoli crushes this guy (11 for 26 with 2 homers), and the Sox generally do well against him. Dempster has been better than decent against the O's this season.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo/Steven Senne

Red Sox Lose Potential Postseason Preview

Monday afternoon's game felt like a playoff game. It was close, the pitching was good, there were some impressive defensive plays. And timely hitting (or a lack thereof) determined the outcome.

Against teams that would currently be in the playoffs, the Red Sox have an 18-17 record. That includes their 2-1 series victory over the Dodgers, and a 16-16 record against AL playoff teams. However, that record is weighted heavily by their season series with Tampa Bay, which the Sox lead 10-6. The Red Sox are now 1-3 against Detroit, 2-4 against the Rangers, and 3-3 against the A's. Taking the Rays out of the equation, the Sox are 8-11 against playoff teams.

I'm not trying to poop in the punch bowl and ruin the party. What I am saying is that in one month's time when the Sox are in the playoffs, they can't let opportunities slip by like they did Monday afternoon. The Sox were 0 for 11 with runners in scoring position yesterday. They grounded into 3 double plays.

One play sums up this game for the Sox. Jarrod Saltalamacchia's failed sacrifice bunt in the 7th. With 2 on and 0 outs in a 2 run game, I don't like the idea of bunting in that situation to begin with. That being said, if you do bunt, it has to be executed. Saltalamacchia bunted straight into the ground, it hopped high and in front of Tigers catcher Alex Avila, who made a bare-handed grab and an excellent throw to third to eliminate Daniel Nava. It was a useless out.

That miscue was one of several missed chances for the Sox. It was also one of several very good defensive plays made by the Tigers, some made by old friend Jose Iglesias (why are former Red Sox players always called "old friend?").

This was a close game and Detroit made all the big and small plays that gave them the victory. That's what happens in playoff baseball.

The Red Sox can do better. And they're going to have to in order to win tonight. They face 19-1 Max Scherzer. Some of the Sox have good numbers against him in the past (Ellsbury is 5 for 9 with 5 RBI, Ortiz is 7 for 13 with 3 homers, Saltalamacchia is 5 for 12). But Scherzer is pitching like a completely different person this year. So it's up to Jon Lester to try to match him. Or at least keep the Sox in the game until they can get to Detroit's bullpen. Lester's riding a streak of 5 straight Quality Starts, and he finished August with a 2.97 ERA.

However, the Tigers have frighteningly good numbers against Lester. Combined they're hitting .397 off him, with a 1.061 OPS. Miguel Cabrera's status will be key as he's 10 for 16 (.625) against Lester. So Lester has to step up and beat hitters who have beaten him in the past.

If the Sox win tonight's game, they'll have proven quite a bit about themselves, and convinced me that they're ready for playoff baseball.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo/Winslow Townson

Red Sox Play a Part in Playoff Races

There's a seriously exciting three-way race in the AL East this year. And it's painful to not be part of it. The Red Sox are completely irrelevant, except that they might beat relevant teams and knock them out of the playoff hunt.

That's just about the only reason to watch this team these days. That and to watch players now and imagine who might be on this team in 2013, and how they might do. Last night we got to see Jon Lester, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Junichi Tazawa do well. And that can provide some hope for 2013.

Jon Lester had a decent start last night. He's been such an impossible to figure puzzle this year. He walked 7 Yankees. He also struck out 5 in his 5.1 innings. He allowed 5 hits, but only 3 of those 12 baserunners he allowed managed to score.

A fresh start in 2013 would do Lester good. He's not a guy I'd want to build a rotation around, but I don't mind him being a middle-of-the-rotation pitcher.

Jacoby Ellsbury was 4 for 5 on his birthday, with a double, 2 RBI, and the game-winning single. I'm not sold on Ellsbury, to be honest. I'll give him a pass for this season because of injuries and the sorry state of the team. But he's only had one good year in his career. He's always been about potential and only occasionally been results. And stolen bases. Scott Boras will tout him as a 30/30 man, but he's only managed to hit 10+ homeruns in one season. His career OBP is below .350.

2013 will be a make or break year for Ellsbury. Can he stay healthy? If so, can he demonstrate that he's still as good as he was in 2011? The Sox have the available funds to sign him, but will they want to?

I want Junichi Tazawa to be the #1 middle-reliever on the 2013 Red Sox. And maybe even consider him for the closer's role. He throws strikes. He almost never walks anyone. He comes in any inning any situation and does his job. He struck out 3 in 1.2 innings last night. And in 35 innings this year he's struck out 35 and walked only 5.

I don't much enjoy the Red Sox embracing their role as spoilers. There is a great race for playoff spots going on and Boston is miles away from the action. September baseball without a playoff race, without scoreboard watching, is simply a weekday distraction between football games.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

50 Games Left for Red Sox

Is it me or has this season seemed much longer than 112 games? Every week feels like a month, every month like half a season.

With 50 games left the Red Sox are only 6 games in the loss column out of the Wild Card. That deficit isn't insurmountable, certainly not given the time the Sox have to close the gap. Even if there are 3 teams the Sox need to leapfrog over while closing that gap.

To use a brutally overused sports cliche, the Sox control their own destiny. Especially since 30 of the 50 games on their remaining schedule are against other teams vying for the AL Wild Card spots.

They play the Athletics 3 times, the Angels 6 times, 9 pivotal games against the Orioles, 6 with the Rays, and 6 against the Blue Jays. If they do well in these 30 games, especially the 9 against Baltimore, then they should make the playoffs.

It's a mixed blessing to face these opponents as it means that the Red Sox will spend most of their last 50 games playing good teams. Apart from these 30 games against Wild Card contenders, they'll play the Yankees 9 times. The only "breaks" for the Sox will be this 4 game series in Cleveland, 4 games against the Royals, and 3 games in Seattle.

I hate the phrase "control their own destiny" so I'll try another way to describe the position the Sox are in: They're responsible. It's on them to beat these Wild Card contenders. They'll have no one to blame but themselves if they fail to beat them.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

MLB To Add Wild Card Teams

As soon as next year, each league could be sending 5 teams to the playoffs instead of 4. This will be the first time MLB has expanded its playoff structure since 1995. This also means that the Red Sox would have made the playoffs the last two seasons.

I don't mind the expansion. MLB will be sending 10 teams to the playoffs. The NFL sends 12, the NBA and NHL send 16 each. Any complaints about losing late-season pennant race drama can be silenced by pointing out that in any given year the race for 5th can be just as tight as the race for 4th. In 2010 for instance, the Red Sox had 1 more win than the White Sox in what would have been an exciting race for 5th.

I'd actually prefer 12 teams in the playoffs, with the top two from each league receiving byes.

What I don't like is the way that the new "Wild Card Round" will probably be played: a one game winner-take-all playoff. So after 162 games, it will all come down to just one? That seems a bit unfair. Especially since you're only as good as your starting pitcher performs that day. One meltdown start could be the end of what could have been a very good season.

It's also unfair to Wild Card teams that have better records than divisional winners. In 2010 the Yankees won the AL Wild Card with the 2nd best record in the AL. Why should they have to risk their entire season in a one-game playoff while the AL West winners with a worse record get more margin for error.

I'd prefer a 12 team playoff, with a best-of-three game opening round. I don't know what the point of adding Wild Card teams to the playoffs is if they only get one game to advance any further.

This is great for the Red Sox, though. Even when this team disappoints, they still win at least 88 games, and that will probably be good enough to get the 5th playoff spot.