Fate of the 2015 Red Sox to be decided in the next 4 weeks

In 4 weeks we'll know if the 2015 Red Sox season will be something to be ashamed of, or proud of. Will the 2015 Sox be an embarrassing failure or an inspiring success? Will they be potential buyers at the July 31st trade deadline, or sellers?

The Sox beat the Blue Jays 4-3 Tuesday night, ending June with a 3-game win streak and a 14-14 record for the month. It was only the third 3-game win streak of the season. They have yet to push any of those to 4 games. It's said that momentum is only as good as next day's starting pitcher. Unfortunately Wednesday's starter for the Sox is 4-8 Rick Porcello. So my hopes aren't too high that the Sox will extend their streak to 4.

Now is the time to get busy winning or get busy losing. It's July. The trade deadline looms at the end of the month. If the Sox can't win their way back into the hunt, they will be compelled to be sellers at the deadline. If out of contention at the end of the month, they can't afford to pass up the opportunity to rid themselves of dead weight and/or acquire promising talent for the near future.

A 6 game deficit in the division and for the wild cards doesn't seem like much. However, 4 teams stand in the Sox' way in the AL East, and 9 for the wild card spots. Some of those teams are bound to get hot, so closing the gap against them will not be easy.

The Sox play 16 of their next 18 against good teams. Ground must be gained during this stretch. They don't have to gain 3 or 4 games a week, but over the next 4 weeks they must steadily close the gap between them and a playoff spot. Treading water isn't good enough. It's time to swim.

The Sox can't afford more 3 game losing streaks (they had 5 of those in May). No more settling for split series, or taking 2 of 3 from one team then losing 2 of 3 to another. Playing .500 baseball won't be enough to bring the Sox closer to a playoff spot.

Porcello will likely make 5 starts in July. It's time for him to do his job, or at the very least stop sucking so terribly at it. Clay Buchholz needs to stay healthy and sharp. If the Sox get themselves in the race, he needs to handle the pressure of pitching in meaningful games again. And Eddie Rodriguez needs to stop tipping his pitches. Watching him on the mound is like watching an instructional video on poker tells.

Photo Credit: Frank Gunn/The Canadian Press via AP

So Terry Francona Is a Pretty Good Manager

After the 2011 collapse of the Boston Red Sox, it was time for Terry Francona and the team to part ways. Like a relationship that just wasn't going anywhere and was becoming dysfunctional. And then the Red Sox did the equivalent of going on Facebook to badmouth their ex. Francona was blamed for being unaware of the deep-seeded problems that plagued the Red Sox clubhouse. And if he was aware, he was accused of not having enough respect from the players to do anything about it. And most despicably, he was accused of having a prescription drug problem.

Then in 2012 the Red Sox discovered that the clubhouse was just as toxic without Francona. And the team realized that players like Josh Beckett were the real problem.

Were the Red Sox still smart to let Francona go? I suppose they were. It had to happen. But I do think that if he were managing the same 2013 Red Sox team that John Farrell currently manages, the results would probably be similar. But that's just a hypothetical question.

Anyway, how about those Cleveland Indians? We've heard Francona jokingly remark about his team's success, attributing it to avoiding chicken and beer. I would love to hear what John Henry and Larry Lucchino think of the Indians' success, and how their former manager is doing in Cleveland.

I confess that I don't follow the Indians that closely, and have no idea why or how they went from a 68-94 record in 2012 to a 92-70 record in 2013 (an improvement of 24 wins, very close to the 28 win improvement the Red Sox made from 2012 to 2013). Masterson and Jimenez are pitching much better in 2013, just like how Lester and Lackey are pitching much better in 2013. The Indians have allowed 1.13 runs less per game in 2013 than they did in 2012. That's huge.

How much of that is the manager's doing? Not much. Essentially nothing. The players are playing better. Francona has little to do with that.

And that's what makes Francona a good MLB manager. He doesn't try to do more than manage. He lets his players be themselves. He let Kevin Millar be a goofball. He let Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling be prima donnas. He let Manny be Manny and he let Kevin Youkilis be a prick. And the team won.

That was also Francona's ultimate undoing here in Boston. He let slackers be slackers. But out in Cleveland he has a group of no-names, a couple of has-beens, and a hodgepodge of semi-notable pitchers. Brett Myers found his way into 4 games out there. Jason Giambi, Nick Swisher, Matt Albers, former Devil Ray Scott Kazmir, Mike Aviles. It's like a roster you'd get in a 20-team fantasy baseball league and you didn't have a pick until the 5th round.

So Francona is a good manager because of what he doesn't do. He doesn't try to force people to be something they're not. He doesn't use the media to make examples out of people. He doesn't give inspirational speeches or come up with clever schemes to steal games. He manages with a relaxed confidence, and sometimes teams respond to that and play with the same kind of calm swagger.

Terry Francona isn't the reason the Indians improved by 24 wins. He, in a uniquely Francona way, allowed Masterson, Jimenez, Kazmir, and the rest of the players to become the reason.

50 Games Left for Red Sox

Is it me or has this season seemed much longer than 112 games? Every week feels like a month, every month like half a season.

With 50 games left the Red Sox are only 6 games in the loss column out of the Wild Card. That deficit isn't insurmountable, certainly not given the time the Sox have to close the gap. Even if there are 3 teams the Sox need to leapfrog over while closing that gap.

To use a brutally overused sports cliche, the Sox control their own destiny. Especially since 30 of the 50 games on their remaining schedule are against other teams vying for the AL Wild Card spots.

They play the Athletics 3 times, the Angels 6 times, 9 pivotal games against the Orioles, 6 with the Rays, and 6 against the Blue Jays. If they do well in these 30 games, especially the 9 against Baltimore, then they should make the playoffs.

It's a mixed blessing to face these opponents as it means that the Red Sox will spend most of their last 50 games playing good teams. Apart from these 30 games against Wild Card contenders, they'll play the Yankees 9 times. The only "breaks" for the Sox will be this 4 game series in Cleveland, 4 games against the Royals, and 3 games in Seattle.

I hate the phrase "control their own destiny" so I'll try another way to describe the position the Sox are in: They're responsible. It's on them to beat these Wild Card contenders. They'll have no one to blame but themselves if they fail to beat them.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Red Sox Take Two of Three in Tampa Bay

This was an important series win for the Sox. They needed to start the second half right. They needed to beat teams like the Rays who are competing for those Wild Card spots. To finish above the Rays in the standings, they need to beat them. It's very simple, but very true.

I'm not overwhelmed by the Sox performance this past weekend, though. Saturday was a winnable game that was lost. And the Sox gave Tampa Bay plenty of opportunities to turn the other games around.

Honestly, are you impressed with what Josh Beckett and Alfredo Aceves did yesterday afternoon? Beckett was a slow-motion disaster in the 1st inning, then Aceves nearly blew a 4 run lead in the 9th.

The Sox are only 1.5 games out of the 2nd Wild Card spot. But there are 4 teams between them and Baltimore. In this race, the name of the game is separation. What will separate the Red Sox from these teams in the final standings?

Winning a series like this is important because it helps give them separation from Tampa Bay. A sweep, obviously, would have given them even more separation. Had they swept, they'd be 0.5 games out, ahead of Tampa Bay, and tied with Oakland and Detroit. Only the two Wild Card teams (the Angels and Orioles) would be ahead of them.

If Josh Beckett can pitch as well as he did from the 2nd inning on, that can give the Sox the necessary separation to break away from the pack. Jacoby Ellsbury went 3 for 5 yesterday, he could prove to be the separation from the other teams. If Adrian Gonzalez can hit in the clutch, if Will Middlebrooks can get hot again, if Clay Buchholz can stay healthy and effective, if Mike Aviles can hit the occasional homerun (as he did yesterday), these could all be the separating factors that allow the Red Sox to get one of the Wild Card spots.

One thing they must also do is be able to score against good pitching and hold their own against good teams. Speaking of which, the White Sox come to town for 4 games. I'll be content with a 2-2 split in this series.

Tonight Aaron Cook faces Dylan Axelrod, who has been a part-time starter for the White Sox. But none of the Red Sox have much experience against him, and that's frequently not a good sign.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Game Over, Season Over

Anyone that dares blame the Yankees for the Red Sox not making the playoffs deserves a swift slap to the face. The Red Sox surrendered a playoff berth that was theirs for the taking. It all happened so quickly last night, but this was a month long stretch of crappy baseball played by overrated, overpaid players. The Red Sox do not deserve to be in the 2011 MLB Playoffs.

Lester pitched well, all things considered. 6 innings, 2 earned on 3 days rest. I'll take that. He was a bit fortunate that Scutaro made that unbelievable glove-toss to Pedroia to start a double-play. Then Aceves did well, then Bard pitched a scoreless 8th, then Papelbon...

Papelbon had a tremendous season. But this is not the first time that he's been on the mound when a Red Sox season has ended with disappointment. I'm not saying we shouldn't re-sign him (unless we can acquire a similar talent for less money), but the facts are the facts. He has blown some pretty big saves.

It's a game of inches. Scutaro was inches from scoring on Crawford's double. But you shouldn't need a few inches here and there to beat the Orioles. The Sox had 7 games against Baltimore at the back of this schedule, and they went 2-5 in those games. The Orioles' payroll is $75 million less than the Sox.

And while the Red Sox lose the burden of JD Drew, but we're still saddled with Carl Crawford and John Lackey. This is not a complete team. All the preseason hype from all the suckers and fools in this town was over fantasy baseball stats. This team needs more starting pitching. They need another reliable arm in the pen. They need a full-time catcher, outfielders who play 150+ games, they need a bench.

There are good players on this team, good players with heart. Pedroia, Ellsbury, Youkilis. There's talented guys like Gonzalez, Beckett, Lester. Buchholz will hopefully be healthy. Daisuke isn't a bad #4 or #5. Lackey needs to be quietly killed and his body left in a snowbank. But there is a foundation here. There's something to build on.

But there needs to be a significant amount of building.

One thing I am seeing from most of the team in their post-game media sessions is emotion. Frustration. Anger. Disappointment. That's been missing, at least in the public's eye, all throughout this stretch. Maybe this team can play with some fire next year. Then again, you have excuse conjurers like Lackey who think the entire universe (except for Jim Beam) is against them. I don't know how much this team's attitude will change. I think you have different kinds of personalities in that clubhouse, and when things go well on the field, there's chemistry. When they don't, things break down.

Bruins season starts in 8 days.

Sox Considering Bruce Chen for Game 163

If there is a 163rd game tomorrow afternoon, the Red Sox might be starting someone new. Bruce Chen's name has been thrown around as a possible starter for the Sox. At the moment, it would be John Lackey who takes the mound.

Not only does Lackey suck, he'd be pitching on 3 days rest. Chen would be on 5 days rest. Chen actually had a decent year with the Royals, going 12-8 with a 3.98 ERA.

Chen didn't face the Rays at all this year, but in 2010, he started against them once and it was a complete game, 2 hit shutout. But in '09 against them, he had a 6.2 inning, 2 earned run game in which he allowed 5 hits and 3 walks.

The current Rays aren't too familiar with him, as they only have 64 total at-bats facing him. 28 of those at-bats belong to Johnny Damon, who hits .464 off him. BJ Upton is 1/12 in his career against Chen. Other than that, though, no Ray has more than 5 at-bats against him. No Ray has more than 1 hit, either. Pitchers tend to have the advantage when hitters aren't familiar with them.

The Rays are more familiar with Lackey (235 total at-bats). They hit .294 off him. Damon is 22 for 60 (.367), Ben Zobrist is 8 for 20 (.400). Lackey was 1-2 vs. Tampa Bay this season, with a 6.46 ERA. Last year he was 2-2, with a 6.26 ERA. This isn't a good matchup for him.

Chen was hit or miss in September. On the 18th, he made a 5.1 inning, 4 earned run start against the White Sox. Then on the 23rd, he went 8 innings against the same White Sox, allowing only 1 run off 2 hits. He was 2-3 in the month, with a pair of brilliant 8 inning starts, and 3 mediocre 4+ run starts.

Lackey has hardly been better down the stretch. 0-2 record with a 9.13 ERA in the month. He had a 3 inning, 5 earned run start against the Rays on the 9th. Like Chen, he was inconsistent. Unlike Chen, he made 3 atrocious starts in September, not 3 mediocre starts. And his 2 "good" starts were just good, not excellent, which Chen's were.

It's not that Bruce Chen is a good pitcher. It's just that John Lackey sucks. I know the entire pitching staff will be available in the bullpen in case Lackey falters, but I think Chen is less likely to outright blow the game. And with Chen, there's at least a possibility of a very good start.

Neither option is very pleasant, but I feel like Chen is the lesser of two evils.

Sox Win a Tense One

That was tense. The Sox' bats kept pulling away, but the Orioles kept coming. Nothing was easy. Just ask Papelbon after he needed 28 pitches for one inning (he needed 29 on Sunday).

The bats needed to come alive, as Bedard just wasn't good enough. Again. Thankfully, the Sox have Alfredo Aceves, who is the biggest unsung hero of the team. 3.2 innings from him (getting 1 more out than Bedard could), as he deservedly got win #10. He's pitched 113 innings this year in 54 appearances (only 4 of those were starts). Without him, the Sox are eliminated from contention over a week ago.

Daniel Bard sucks. I couldn't believe Francona didn't have Papelbon ready to come in to get the last out of the 8th. There's no way in hell that this guy is ready to be a closer.

Before last night, some people probably didn't know who Ryan Lavarnway was. After last night, I don't think anyone doesn't know who he is. He started off with a pickoff, then hits a 3 run homer, then a solo shot as an encore. He's 24, he hit .467 his junior year at Yale. He was hitting .295 in Pawtucket this year. Maybe he's a spark that this team desperately needs.

Ellsbury furthered his MVP bid with a 2 run homer in the 2nd. But another guy who has been contributing down the stretch is Scutaro. His 2 out double extended the inning that Ellsbury hit his homer in. Later, Scutaro hit a 2 run shot of his own. He's hitting .368 in September.

Now we wait for Game #162. The Rays beat the Yankees, thanks in part to a bases loaded triple play. So we wait. Jon Lester will take the mound for the Sox. He's 14-0 in his career against Baltimore. Though it's only his second career start on 3 days rest. That other start didn't go well (4 runs in 5 innings back in April of '08), but he only threw 55 pitches on Saturday so maybe he'll be better rested.

The O's will counter with Alfredo Simon who is 4-9 with a 4.85 ERA. He's a righty journeyman and not very good. There's no reason for the Sox to not score runs off him. He allowed 3 in 4.2 innings against the Sox earlier this year.

And if necessary, the AL Wild Card playoff game would be Thursday at 4:07, and would be in St. Petersburg.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

It's All About Pitching

Everyone's been blaming Theo and Tito for the Red Sox' September swoon. They're even blaming pitching coach Curt Young, which is slightly more intelligent since it is pitching that wins and pitching that loses. I know that's hardly an original thought, but with the blame game being played, I feel like all the fault for this stretch of wretched baseball belongs to this team's starting pitchers.

The Red Sox are 29th in Quality Starts (starts of 6+ innings, allowing 3 earned runs or less). 70 Quality Starts in 160 games. Only Baltimore has fewer with 60. The Yankees have 84. The Phillies have 107. And that's too bad, because when the Sox do get a Quality Start, they're nearly unstoppable. They're 54-16 in those 70 games (.771). Without a Quality Start, the Sox are 35-55 (.389).

Beckett and Lester have the lion's share of Quality Starts for the Sox. 38 combined. Yet in September, they've only each made one Quality Start. These are the foundations of the Red Sox rotation, and they are having two of the biggest slumps on the team.

One reason the Sox don't have as many Quality Starts as they could is the loss of Buchholz. Buchholz struggled in April, but 6 of his last 9 starts were Quality Starts. The Red Sox were 8-1 in those 9 starts. Losing him has cost the rotation some serious stability.

Losing Daisuke didn't hurt much, to be frank. He only had 2 Quality Starts in 7 chances.

I wasn't that impressed with this rotation at the beginning of the year. It seemed to rely on Beckett being consistent (something his career record has proven that he isn't), Daisuke being both good and healthy (something which is almost as rare as Beckett being consistent), a young Buchholz duplicating an extraordinary season, and John Lackey being the exact opposite of what he's been lately.

Lackey actually got worse, Beckett was great for a time, but now he's slumping (his inconsistency reappearing). Buchholz was doing well then got hurt, Daisuke wasn't doing well then got hurt. And Lester is a good 2 or 3 pitcher and not an Ace.

We all thought we had a better rotation than the Yankees. But we don't. We never did. We mocked them for just having CC Sabathia, but there's no pitcher on the Sox even close to Sabathia. And the Yankees don't have anyone as bad as Lackey.

It's all about pitching. Even with a fantastic offense, if you don't get a good start, you're going to struggle to win. If Beckett or Lester each made just one more Quality Start in September, the Sox could have already clinched. Now, their postseason lives are on the line. And if they don't get Quality Starts in the next two (maybe three) games, then they'll almost surely die.

A 2 Game Season

The Sox had Josh Beckett on the mound. They needed a great start from him. They did not get one. And once again, a poor pitching performance resulted in a loss. Although it's not like the offense did their job either. They got on base (11 hits, 4 walks), but couldn't get the hits when it mattered most.

I want this team to make the playoffs, simply to avoid the shame of such an historic collapse. But this team simply does not deserve it. People have criticized the GM, the manager, this team's "heart" or lack thereof. They've blamed injuries, and there's some validity to that. I, however, do not think this team has good pitching.

And while the offense scores runs in big bunches, it's not structured to be consistent. The lineup is too vulnerable if one or two key players slump at the same time.

The whole season is on the line. The Sox arrived in Baltimore with some momentum, with an alleged Ace on the mound, and with their destiny completely in hand. If they'd swept the O's, they'd win the Wild Card. Now the Sox have to win 2 games and they still might need a one game playoff against the Rays in order to make the postseason.

Erik Bedard faces Zach Britton tonight.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo