Oh Yeah, the World Baseball Classic Is Next Year

Remember the World Baseball Classic? Yeah, that meaningless tournament that Daisuke Matsuzaka prioritized ahead of being a member of the Red Sox. Well it's back.

The WBC will be held in 2013, but the Qualifying rounds have already started. Spain won a round-robin tournament to advance, and so did Canada. Brazil, Panama, Nicaragua, and Columbia will vie for another spot. And Thailand, the Philippines, New Zealand, and Chinese Taipei will compete for another.

Johnny Damon will compete on the Thai team. Apparently his mother is Thai.

The automatically qualified teams are:
Japan, China, Cuba (to play first round games in Japan)
South Korea, the Netherlands, Australia (to play in Taiwan)
Venezuela, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic (to play in Puerto Rico)
USA, Mexico, Italy (to play in Arizona)

It'd be a nice tournament if the games weren't played during Spring Training. Major League players are at their worst shape of the year and their training routines are strictly monitored by their MLB clubs. Except Daisuke's. The Red Sox just let him do what he wanted.

So on paper it's an interesting event. In actuality, expect Cuba to win because their players are terrified of their government, and this competitions is the biggest event of the year for them.

Red Sox Season Mercifully Ends

After six months of gruesome torture, Red Sox fans are finally free. This embarrassment of a season is over, officially in the books, and let us hope we someday are able to cope with this tragic experience, and move on with our lives.

This was the 14th worse season in Red Sox history. It's their 3rd worst since 1933, and their worst since 1965. 5th place, 24 games under .500, 26 games behind the Yankees, 24 games out of a playoff spot, 4 games behind the 4th place Blue Jays, 3 games behind the Royals, the 3rd worst record in the AL, 7th worst record in all of baseball.

At least that Sellout Streak is intact.

Game #162 was the type of pitiful game that the Red Sox frequently had all year long. Daisuke pitched 2.1 innings, allowed 5 runs off 6 hits and 2 homers. He ends the season with a 1-7 record, and an 8.28 ERA.

I am so full of harmonious joy that this was Matsuzaka's last start in a Red Sox uniform. Sayonara, Dice-K.

I am pleased that next year I won't have to cheer for Josh Beckett. I felt vile when I was happy to see Josh Beckett succeed.

I am thrilled that Bobby Valentine managed his last game in Boston. It's a wrap, Bobby.

So there are some things to be happy about.

Then again, Larry Lucchino's job seems far too safe. I really don't think Ben Cherington is a good GM (Josh Reddick for Andrew Bailey?). Who will be the new manager? Who will be the Opening Day starter? Who will be the closer? How much influence will Lucchino have in answering these questions?

On the bright side, tickets will be even easier to acquire next year. And I really doubt that the Sox will raise prices.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

So the Red Sox Will Be Below .500

For the first time since 1997, the Red Sox will finish below .500. 1997 doesn't seem like very long ago, but remember that was the year Pedro Martinez won the Cy Young, for the Expos. The Orioles won the AL East. Nomar Garciaparra won Rookie of the Year. Derek Jeter had 385 career hits. Tom Gordon was a starting pitcher. The Marlins won the World Series.

That's how long it's been since the Red Sox lost more games than they won.

Back then, Dan Duqeutte made a trade for an Ace (Pedro), and the Sox became contenders in 1998 and 1999. The Sox could use another transaction like that.

Daisuke Matsuzaka laid another egg last night. The good news was he only walked 1. The bad news was he allowed 9 hits in 3 innings. Alfredo Aceves looked just as bad, Daniel Bard looked even worse.

I sincerely hope the Sox don't keep Matsuzaka. He's slow, and he isn't very good. If the rest of the rotation had more certainty, I wouldn't mind him as a #5 starter. But with the top of the rotation in flux, Daisuke is too much of an unknown variable.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

The Red Sox Have the Worst Doctors in Boston

When the Red Sox resume their 2012 campaign in St. Petersburg this weekend, they'll welcome back a pair of key players from the Disabled List: Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz. Will Middlebrooks is also likely to return to the lineup.

That's not a bad way to start the second half of a season. Ellsbury will bolster the Sox lineup, and perhaps bring more consistency to the team's offensive production. Buchholz was pitching very well until his esophagus flared up. He was 4-0 with a 2.40 ERA in June. And Middlebrooks' .538 slugging percentage is second on the Sox roster, behind only David Ortiz.

So that's great news on the injury front.

However, I've decided to take all injury news regarding Red Sox players with a grain of salt. Daisuke Matsuzaka's neck problems, and the way the Sox handled his rehab and return to the Majors, have raised some serious concerns.

The City of Boston is home to some of the best doctors and medical facilities in the world. So why does the local baseball team have so many confusing medical foul-ups?

Daisuke's trapezius issue is the latest in a pattern of missed diagnoses and failed rehabilitation strategies.

During spring training and while rehabbing in Pawtucket, Matsuzaka repeatedly experienced soreness in his neck. He was given two cortisone injections. At one point during his rehab he was shutdown. Then he resumed throwing after a shot, claimed he was fine, and the Red Sox brought him back to the Majors.

This was despite the fact that his rehab outings weren't very good. Especially for a Major Leaguer facing AAA talent.

He seemed fine once he returned, although he had difficulty pitching well in the 1st inning. In other words, he struggled to warm-up.

Before his latest start in Oakland, he was unable to throw a bullpen session due to stiffness in the neck. He was still allowed to start the game. Disaster ensued. Now he's back to the DL.

With injuries, the Sox consistently seem to do two things:

1. Allow players to convince medical personnel that they're okay.
2. Return players from injury as quickly as possible (which perhaps explains #1), even if there still might be an unhealed issue.

Daisuke said he was healthy and ready to pitch. And the Sox listened. Because it's exactly what the Sox wanted him to say. They want their players back out there ASAP.

Jacoby Ellsbury in 2010 is the most extreme example of a player rushed to return to the lineup. The Sox wanted Ellsbury back in the lineup as quickly as possible, so they never considered any reasons to not re-activate him. He spent the year with recurring injuries that were never properly healed.

Earlier this season, Dustin Pedroia injured his thumb. It seemed as though the DL was a last resort option. Pedroia was eager to return to the lineup, and the Red Sox allowed him to do so. He only missed 6 games. He struggled for a month until the team started to question if something was still wrong. And now he's on the DL.

Had he been placed on the DL back in May, he might be healed and completely ready to play by now.

I don't think the Red Sox have incompetent doctors working for them. But I do think those doctors operate with a certain goal in mind. Instead of needing absolute proof that a player is healthy, they'll let the player play so long as there's no obvious sign of injury. They'll ignore things like Daisuke struggling to warm-up, or Pedroia struggling to hit.

They let Ellsbury return even when his ribs needed more healing. They let Daisuke rehab even when his neck is stiff. They let Pedroia play after tearing a muscle in his thumb. Even when that was re-aggravated last week, manager Bobby Valentine declared Pedroia's thumb was "Not really hurt. I just think he needs these two days, and so does he... He's a little stiff here and there."

Pedroia was eventually placed on the DL. Thankfully Bobby V is not a doctor (I don't think so anyway).

So Ellsbury, Buchholz, and Middlebrooks are returning. Hopefully they're returning at the appropriate time, and haven't been rushed back to the lineup.

Matsuzaka Meltdown

On the bright side, Daisuke Matsuzaka's painful performance (both for him and for Sox fans) allowed many in New England to fall asleep at a normal hour.

In the second inning, Daisuke threw 17 pitches. 10 were balls. 3 were struck as hits (a single, a double, a homerun), 2 were foul, and 2 were strikes. Bobby Valentine mercifully pulled him out of the game.

This game was one of the worst I've ever seen him pitch. He was fooling no-one. Even the Mariners would have scored off him. Carl Crawford would have hit him. Adrian Gonzalez would have knocked him around, even in clutch situations.

It was ugly.

Daisuke's supporters always use the win-loss argument. Well, he's 0-3 now. With a nearly evil ERA of 6.65.

The word is that he's had neck stiffness. He's had it throughout his rehab but has usually been able to pitch through it. But after this debacle, he might be placed on the DL.

Daisuke's dreadful outing overshadows how feeble the Red Sox offense was last night and has been in the Pacific Time Zone. They've scored 10 runs in the last 5 games. Before coming out West, they were scoring in bunches. That's been the story all year long with this lineup: flood or drought, feast or famine.

6 hits last night, 5 of them singles. 1 for 6 with runners in scoring position. Ortiz and Gonzalez each grounded into a double play. The Sox made Sean Doolittle look amazing. He threw 2.1 perfect innings of relief.

The good news is that Jon Lester is on the mound tonight. Before the season, Lester got all pissy because he wasn't considered "elite." Well here's yet another chance for you to demonstrate your elitiness, Mr. Lester. The Sox are on a 2-3 slide, last night's starter got shelled, the offense is struggling, and the team needs something special from you to help them turn the tide.

He faces Bartolo Colon, who is 6-7 with a 4.22 ERA. Colon has been very inconsistent this season. For instance, in April he was 2-2 with a 2.86 ERA. In May he was 1-3 with a 7.92 ERA. An inconsistent starting pitcher against an inconsistent offense. The Sox will either score less than 3 or more than 10.

In his career, David Ortiz is 5 for 43 against Colon (.116 average). One of those hits was a homerun.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Patience Pays Off for Red Sox

It took the Red Sox lineup a while to wake up last night. They were utterly silenced by Aaron Laffey Taffy who was making his first starting appearance since 2010. Daisuke Matsuzaka and the bullpen were able to keep them very much in the game, and the Blue Jays bullpen eventually crumbled. The Red Sox are now back in sole possession of 4th place.

Daisuke doesn't seem like he's had Tommy John surgery at all. I'm not sure how good that news is, but considering the health of his fellow SPs, I'll take a 5.2 inning, 100 pitch Matsuzaka Special. And he only walked 1 batter. He's struggled at the beginning of his starts, then settles in and is nearly unhittable.

If he gets that 1st inning down, he can go deep into games and give the Sox an even better chance at winning.

Will Middlebrooks had another error. That's bad luck for him. I don't think this is a post-Youkilis trend manifesting itself. He's not a great fielder and I don't care. He can hit. He had an RBI sac-fly last night.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia hit his 14th homerun of the season. He and Middlebrooks each have 35 RBI. Adrian Gonzalez has 40. He got his 40th last night with an RBI double in the 8th.

The Sox can end their homestand 7-2 if they beat the Jays this afternoon. They need Jon Lester to pitch like Jon Lester. That's because they'll be facing 8-1 Ricky Romero. Romero's benefited from good run support. He has a 5.82 ERA in his last three starts. So if Lester can shut down the Jays, the Sox can get a few off Romero and win.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Red Sox Complete Sweep of Marlins

If Daisuke Matsuzaka could pitch a simulated inning out on Yawkey Way, then come into the ballpark at the start of the real game, his stat lines would look a lot better. He once again struggled at the outset last night, but finished strong. And it's more promising for a starter returning from injury to have difficulty getting warmed up, then to fade away as the game progresses.

Although predictably, he did get that pitch-count up there. And he did allow a homerun in the 6th that gave Miami the lead.

Will Middlebrooks saved the day for Daisuke and the Sox. He had an RBI double in 4th. An RBI single in the 5th. And he tied the game with a 2 run homer in the 8th. He's 6th on the Sox with 31 RBI, but he's also about 30 games behind everyone else. His RBIs are coming at a slightly faster rate than David Ortiz's.

It's still too early to tell with Matsuzaka. He's not a complete mess, which is a good sign. And he's able to throw 100 pitches. As always, the problem is that he reaches 100 pitches very early. How do you gauge the recovery of a guy who was difficult to gauge even when healthy?

He pitched good enough for the Sox to have a chance, though. And thanks to Middlebrooks, the Sox took advantage of the opportunity.

Speaking of opportunities, I wrote a post a few days ago about the Sox playing 16 straight games against teams hovering around .500, and how much of an opportunity it was for them to win before the schedule toughened. So far, so good. 3-0 against the floundering Marlins.

The Sox host the Braves next. Jon Lester faces Jair Jurrjens. This guy is destined to wind up with the Sox one day so people can mispronounce his name. He's 0-2 in 4 starts with a 9.37 ERA. He's gone 5 innings in only 1 of those starts. No excuse to not knock this Netherlands Antilles kid around.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

A Great Chance for the Sox to Win

There are 96 games left on the schedule. And if the Red Sox want to play more than 96 games, they need to win now.

Yes I know they they're enduring more than their share of injuries. They're missing an MVP candidate in the outfield, a starting pitcher who is capable of brilliance, a closer, more outfielders than there are outfield spots, and so on.

There's also been reports of strife and division within the clubhouse. There are coaches who weren't appointed by the manager, a manager who wasn't appointed by the GM, owners who use the media to manipulate popular opinion. There are trade rumors, there is fracturing between pitchers and hitters, between Francona supporters and those loyal to Bobby V.

And there are excuses. Umpires, the wind, the schedule.

The excuses and explanations must stop. This is a time for them to stop whining and start winning.

The Red Sox are starting a 16 game stretch against some of the weakest opposition in the Majors. Three against Miami (33-33 and 4th in the NL East), three against Atlanta (35-32, 3rd place), three against Toronto (34-32, 4th in AL East), four against Seattle (29-39, 4th in AL West), and three against Oakland (31-36, 3rd place).

They can and should win most of these games.

With Beckett out of the rotation, Lester and Buchholz need to pitch well every start. Buchholz has been doing that lately. Lester's been good but he needs to be great. The Sox need these two guys to be at their best.

Matsuzaka needs to continue what he did after the 2nd inning on Friday. And Doubront needs to be as solid as he's been.

Offensively, the stars of the lineup need to play like stars. I keep getting emails from the Red Sox urging their fans to vote for Pedroia to be in the All-Star Game. He's hitting .160 in June. The whole "relax" attitude he has shown is cute and funny, but he needs to hit. Now.

Youkilis also needs to hit. He's on a .128 clip this month.

And Adrian Gonzalez is hitting .232 in June. He only has 5 extra-base hits.

The stars on this team aren't playing like stars. The second-tier talent has carried them. And without those contributions from the second-tier talent, the Sox would be well below .500.

In the next 16 games, the Sox have an opportunity to do some damage. The injuries hurt, but what's killing them is their best players not playing like their best players.

After this stretch, the schedule gets tough. They face the Yankees, Rays, and White Sox. If they don't take advantage of the lesser opponents they have now, they might be out of the playoff race this time next month.

Theo Epstein Revises History

The Sox are in Chicago to face the Cubs. Which means it's time to talk about former Red Sox GM Theo Epstein.

Just about every media outlet in New England had a piece or an interview with Theo this week. And he said some interesting things about his time with the Sox. He mentioned pressure to spend money and acquire players, and constant pressure to keep the team successful.

I can appreciate that. And I can appreciate Theo not wanting to work under Larry "Il Duce" Lucchino and Lord John Henry. But I don't know if I appreciated Epstein's tone or the way he explained his tenure in Boston. I got the sense that he was trying to say that mistakes he made weren't his fault. That he knew what he was doing was unwise, but that he was giving in to organizational pressure.

Theo's moves won the Sox two World Series. So let's just state that right off the bat. He made the Nomar trade, he signed Ortiz, he traded for Beckett, all these moves (and more) helped the Sox win it all in 2004 and 2007.

He wasn't perfect. Nobody is. But some of the deals he made were silly. Especially when he spent lots of money. JD Drew. An injury prone John Lackey. Spending $51 million just to talk to Daisuke. Re-signing Beckett. Bobby Jenks. Giving Carl Crawford $142 million.

The sizes of the contracts were what made the signings odd. Carl Crawford was a very good player with the Rays, but the size of the deal was beyond even his expectations. Nobody was bidding against the Sox when they signed him. They just threw a bunch of money at him.

So Epstein is saying that there was a desire to try to improve and to win every year, and that overwhelmed his patience. So he compromised his philosophy and would "settle for a different move that maybe doesn't check all the boxes."

If that's the case, it's still his responsibility. And what is he afraid of? He had two rings. He once quit the organization. And yet he felt pressured to compromise his philosophy? He didn't feel confident in the patience that won the World Series twice?

That doesn't make sense.

What I think actually happened was that he tried to be too clever with his big acquisitions. He was a disciple of Billy Beane. He used his brain to make some smart moves. He found undervalued talent like David Ortiz, Bill Mueller, Mark Bellhorn, and so on. He turned the farm system around and it's been producing since. He had the balls to trade Nomar. He was very good at being a non-traditional GM.

But the traditional, big money stuff is different. It's simple. It doesn't require extraordinary intelligence. For example, the Yankees wanted CC Sabathia. He's a great pitcher, so they gave him lots of money. It's not brain surgery.

But he tried to be clever and different in this area too.

He always saw Julio Lugo as a guy capable of becoming a superstar. So even though he had never had his breakout season, Theo paid him close to $9 million. Because Theo thought if he had that breakout year, then $9 million would be a bargain. He never broke out.

People shied away from JD Drew because of injury and attitude problems. But Theo saw the injury history and his logic told him that Drew would be one of the best in the game if he weren't so unlucky with injuries. So he gave an injury prone player a 5 year deal worth $70M. Drew missed an average of 40 games per season.

Everyone was excited about Daisuke, but none more than Theo and the Sox. The Sox bid $11 million more than any team just to talk to Matsuzaka. Theo and the Sox thought they were smart enough to handle all the adjustments to pitching in the Majors, to a 5 man rotation, to pitch counts. Daisuke was supposed to reinvent pitching, and the Sox were going to help him do that. The results have been mixed with him.

Theo placed so much importance on value, but then he'd overpay for the guys he wanted to get. He's also hesitate to re-sign aging players with injury concerns. Then they sign Lackey and pay him over $16 million. They worry about age and health, then sign a 31 year old pitcher with a bad elbow.

Epstein did a lot for the Sox. For every Edgar Renteria there was a Keith Foulke and a Curt Schilling. For every JD Drew there's a Papelbon, a Lester, a Buchholz, et cetera.

BUT, he's full of it when he says he strayed from his own philosophies. That's garbage. He made mistakes. He thought he knew what he was doing, he thought he knew better than prevailing wisdom said. And for the smaller signings, he was right. On draft day, he was right. But for the big time free agents, he was wrong.

Theo has a sharp baseball mind. It takes a sharp baseball mind to see a part-time first baseman on the Twins with some pop and a patient approach and see potential for improvement. It takes a sharp baseball mind to have noticed David Ortiz before he became Big Papi.

It doesn't take a sharp baseball mind to see that Felix Hernandez is a good pitcher. And that Miguel Cabrera is a good hitter. The biggest acquisitions require the smallest amount of thought and analysis.

But Theo never turned his brain off. He's claiming now that he ignored it, but the problem was that whole he was here, he was using it too much.

Daisuke Starting Saturday in Boston, Bard Starting Friday in Pawtucket

Daisuke Matsuzaka will be back in Boston just about a year after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He last pitched for the Red Sox in May of 2011. He's made six rehab starts, totaling 37 innings. He had a 3.65 ERA, 31 hits, 9 walks, and 30 strikeouts. He also had high pitch counts. His final rehab outing lasted 2 innings (it had been scheduled for 3) on Tuesday. He threw 40 pitches.

On Saturday, he'll face 7-2 Gio Gonzalez and the Washington Nationals. Even though the Nats are in 1st place, their offense isn't very good. 26th in runs scored. And thankfully for Daisuke, 22nd in OBP, and 14th in walks.

With most pitchers, some things to watch in their first start back are throwing strikes, working with rhythm, being efficient, keeping people off the bases, is their fastball fast and their curveball curving. Of course, Daisuke is not most pitchers. He can have a good start and walk 8 batters.

What should we expect from Daisuke? Frankly (and not surprisingly), my expectations are low. This is a guy who was brilliant for two years (33-15, 3.72 ERA his first two seasons), then ugly for two (16-15, 5.03 ERA). Any other starting pitcher developed normally in the minors would have been dismissed as a flash-in-the-pan that was figured out by MLB hitters, and couldn't cut it in the Majors. But since Daisuke did so well in the quadruple-A equivalent Japanese League, he still is expected to do well over here.

Negativity aside, there is at least potential for him to be good. We've seen it. And if he's not good, he can at least be serviceable, pitching 5 innings (with a 120 pitch count), and giving the Sox a chance to win. That's more than can be said for Daniel Bard, who Daisuke will replace in the rotation.

Bard will be making a start in AAA Pawtucket on Friday, as the PawSox face the Indianapolis Indians (who are the Pirates' AAA affiliate). Although it is technically a start, he will not be working as a traditional starter. His appearances will be short. The Red Sox claim that this is so he can focus on getting himself "back to being an elite pitcher." That's what Ben Cherington said. This minor league stint is about Bard getting back "on track."

In other words, Bard will be pitching short outings until he's shown the quality we've seen from him in the past. If he does well and Matsuzaka struggles, Bard can return to the rotation and give starting another go. If Matsuzaka settles in, then Bard can return as a reliever.

The Sox are being very diplomatic with how they're discussing Bard. They don't want to crush his confidence. They need Bard to fix his problems before he can return as a reliever or a starter. Matsuzaka gives them an easy way to be kind to Bard and say "We have 5 starters already, but we need your quality in the pen." It's sort of like a girl saying "let's just be friends." You don't feel quite so bad if she's already got a boyfriend.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Bard to Minors, What Should the Sox Do With Him?

The Sox sent Daniel Bard to AAA Pawtucket yesterday, activating Darnell McDonald off the DL. In Bard's last start, he only managed to go 1.2 innings, allowing 5 runs off 6 walks and a homerun. In 55 innings, he's walked 37, struck out 34, and has an ERA of 5.24 and a WHIP of 1.62. As a reliever last year, he had a 3.33 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. He only walked 24 in 73 innings.

It's not working for him as a starter. Everyone knows it. Even him. He wants to work out his problems up here in Boston. The Sox want him to work them out in Pawtucket. Frankly, the Sox can't afford his struggles anymore. It's June, the Sox are one game over .500, they're trying to go on a run to separate themselves from the tightly packed AL East. Now's not the time for Bard to work out his problems in games that count in the standings.

I think the Sox know that the starting experiment is over. They won't come out and say it publicly. But their plan for Bard in Pawtucket involves him throwing some 2 inning stints. Doesn't that sound like they'll be converting him to a reliever?

If they really wanted him to continue to start, they might have sent him down to Fort Myers to pitch some simulated games, to focus entirely on his mechanics and not worry about getting hitters out.

Meanwhile, Bard will likely be replaced in the rotation by Matsuzaka. And if Matsuzaka pitches well, and if Buchholz continues to pitch well, the Sox can tell Bard that there's no more room in the rotation, so he might as well go to the pen. If Matsuzaka falters, or another starter gets hurt, the Sox can continue to tinker with Bard.

The Sox are saying that Bard is dropping his arm slot, and that's affecting his performance. Sounds reasonable. I'm not a pitching coach. All I know is that his fastball is slower, he's not pitching to contact, and he only has 2 of his 3 pitches working on any given night. If he can solve those problems, he can start. But maybe those problems are always going to be unsolvable for Bard. Some pitchers just aren't meant to be starters. The Sox tried to make him one when he was first drafted. It didn't work. Too many walks. It's not working now, either.

The Sox bullpen isn't as good as people think it is. There is room for Bard out there. In 2 weeks, the Sox will have an idea what Matsuzaka can give them. They'll also know which relievers they want to keep and which one they're willing to let go. Bard can work on his mechanics, and maybe he'll figure it all out and return to the rotation in glory. More likely, he'll return to the bullpen where he's thrived in the past.

The Matsuzaka Mystery Continues

When reading stories about Daisuke Matsuzaka's health, I feel like I'm reading a mystery novel. Is he healthy? Is he in pain? Is he telling the truth about his injuries? He's a soap opera spoken i foreign language. It's very hard to figure out what's happening.

Daisuke was recently placed on the 60 day DL, and his rehabs in AAA Pawtucket were cancelled due to pain in his right trapezius. People were wondering if Matsuzaka would pitch again in 2012.

They got a quick, surprising answer. He'll be pitching for the PawSox against Toledo on Saturday night.

So what is the story with this guy? Is he still feeling pain and lying about it so he can return to the mound? He's told similar stories in the past. And while the desire to pitch is commendable, the lack of honesty is annoying.

I don't think the Red Sox properly understood what they were getting into with Daisuke. They thought they knew how to convert him from throwing 140 pitches once a week to throwing 100 every 5th day. They took a guy whose body was accustomed to one style of training, and instantaneously switched styles.

I think all the throwing Daisuke did in Japan was what kept his arm strong. Without that exercise, his health deteriorated. So then he'd get shut down. Which meant even less exercise. So the health problems would reoccur.

It reminds me of Formula 1 racing cars, actually. An F1 car must go fast to be safe. If it goes too slow, the tires don't heat up, so they don't grip the road, so you crash and die. A Formula 1 car is dangerous when driven slowly. And the less Matsuzaka throws, the weaker he gets. It seems counter-intuitive, until you understand how abnormal of a thing/person you're talking about.

Daisuke needed a heavy workload to maintain sufficient arm strength and health to avoid all these little problems that have nibbled away at his career.

I'm not a doctor though. I have no idea what the Sox should have done with him. But neither did the Sox. They were exploring uncharted waters without a compass, and acted as if they knew what the hell they were doing. They didn't experiment, they didn't test, they didn't research. They just put Daisuke on a 100 pitch count, severely limited his throwing between starts, and called it good medicine.

It hasn't been.

Unlikely Sluggers Blast Sox Past Orioles

The Sox are 22-22 and just took 2 of 3 from the Orioles. Why am I so happy at this? Because I like the way the Sox won these games. And I prefer consistently winning 2 of 3 as opposed to stretches of 5 straight wins then 5 straight losses.

I'm not as optimistic about Daniel Bard. He's looking more and more like Daisuke Matsuzaka. He's not throwing enough strikes (49 strikes, 41 balls today), he's walking batters (4 more today, he's now walked more batters than he's struck out), his pitch count is getting high early, and he never seems to have the same pitches working for him from start to start.

It's not been a major problem. So far. He's not getting crushed. He's not wild. He got two very timely double-plays today that helped him avoid disaster. And with runners in scoring position, he held the O's at bay.

It doesn't seem like a long-term successful way to pitch, though. This is his fourth start that he's failed to go 6 innings. He's tied with Justin Masterson for the 6th most walks in all of baseball.

Bard only allowed 2 earned runs. The homerun he surrendered today was only the 3rd he's given up all season. That's why the walks haven't been deadly for him. And there's no alternative starting pitcher to take his spot. So for now, Bard is will remain the rotation. He hasn't been a significant problem. Yet.

The offense was provided by some surprise sluggers. Nava, Shoppach, and Podsednik each hit homeruns. Adrian Gonzalez better watch his back because Nava and Shoppach are only 1 homerun behind him. They each have 2. Nava has 2 homers in his last 26 at-bats, and this is after going 171 ABs without a homerun. Podsednik hadn't hit a homerun since September 2010.

All season long, the Sox have been getting contributions from unexpected sources. Doubront has been the most reliable starter in the rotation. Cody Ross, Ryan Sweeney, Will Middlebrooks, Daniel Nava, Mike Aviles. Hell, Kelly Shoppach is hitting .281. These are the Bill Mueller, Mark Bellhorn kind of guys that added to the star power of the 2004 Red Sox. The glue that held the big pieces together.

Now we just need the star pitchers to consistently pitch like stars, the high-priced free agent slugger to earn his pay, and the bullpen to figure itself out.

Sox have an off-day, then host the Rays for 3 over the weekend. It's a great opportunity to claw back into the AL East race. The Sox have done well against Tampa Bay this season. Lester faces Alex Cobb, a 24 year old who was born in Boston and has made 10 Major League starts, 7 of which were Quality Starts. That makes me feel uneasy.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Dice-K OK in Rehab Start

Daisuke Matsuzaka made his second rehab start of 2012. He threw 4.2 innings for the AA Portland Sea Dogs. He threw 74 pitches (15.8 pitches per inning), 44 for strikes, 30 for balls. That's not a great ball-strike ratio, to be honest. But this is Daisuke we're talking about. He faced 17 batters, allowed 3 hits, walked 2, and struck out 7.

Two walks is great, and 0 runs is even better. But let's remember that these were AA hitters who aren't noted for their patience. The biggest struggle Daisuke has had in the Majors has been the patience of MLB hitters. How many of those 2 or 3 ball counts might have turned into walks against big league hitters?

I'm not saying this was a bad start. But these raw box score from it don't mean much, good or bad.

What matters is that there are no reports of pain or a setback.

The Sox could use another starter. And ironically, the return of Daisuke might help the bullpen most of all. Even though he needs considerable assistance from the bullpen, Daisuke's presence in the rotation means that one of the current starters could go out to the pen. That would be a significant boost.

No word yet on when Matsuzaka's next rehab outing will be.

Matsuzaka, in keeping with tradition, paid for the post meal spread. Which consisted of steak, ribs, and sushi (Source)

Photo Credit:
Troy R. Bennett, Bangor Daily News

Red Sox Preview: Starting Pitchers

The Sox rotation is top-heavy. It's success will depend on how heavy that top can be. Teams have been successful in the past with just 2 or 3 great pitchers. 2 pitchers can start 60% of a 5 game series, and 57% of a 7 game series. 3 pitchers can do 80% and 86%.

So you only need 3 great pitchers. The question with for the Sox rotation in 2012 is: can 2 or 3 be great enough to make up for the lack of quality in the others?

Jon Lester is a dependable rock. He's never been an Ace, but he is reliable and very productive. You can count on Lester for an ERA between 3.20 and 3.50, 190 to 210 innings, 15 to 19 wins, and a WHIP between 1.20 and 1.27. In the last four years, he has not deviated outside of these ranges.

Maybe this is the year he steps up and becomes an Ace, but I think that is an unfair expectation. I think this is the year that he pitches like he's pitched for the last 4 years. He'll win 17 games, with an ERA around 3.40. A very fine, very respectable, quality year of work.

Josh Beckett is as unpredictable as Jon Lester is predictable. From game to game, year to year, Beckett is a gamble. He had a 2.89 ERA last year but only managed 13 wins in 31 starts. That was partly due to bad luck. 8 of his 11 no-decisions were Quality Starts.

The question with Beckett has never been "what's he capable of?" It's always been a question of consistency? Going into last September, he was 12-5 with a 2.54 ERA. He was 1-2 in September, with an ERA of 14.79. Which is the real Josh Beckett? They both are.

In 2012, I think Beckett will win at least 18 games. His ERA will be around 3.10. But he'll have some very bad starts, hopefully not at a time when his teammates need him to be his best. But as a whole, I actually am optimistic about his 2012 season.

Clay Buchholz's health could determine if the Red Sox contend for the AL East, or struggle for the 2nd AL Wild Card. He emerged as a frontline starter in 2010, winning 17 games with a 2.33 ERA. Last year he struggled in April then settled down in May and June, going 5-0 with a 2.59 ERA in those months. And if he didn't get hurt, who knows how the season would have gone.

Back injuries worry me. And Buchholz' physique is far from burly. There's no way to tell how well he'll recover from his injuries. If he doesn't, the Sox have a void in a rotation that already has a few voids after him.

If Buchholz does well, the Sox will be contenders. If Buchholz is just okay, the Sox can survive. If Buchholz struggles, they can't.

Why is Buchholz so important? Because the back-end of the Sox rotation is garbage.

Daniel Bard hasn't been a starter since 2007 when he was with Single-A Greenville and High-A Lancaster. It did not go well. In 22 starts (17 in Greenville, 5 in Lancaster) he managed to pitch 75 innings (3.4 per start). He had an ERA of 7.08 and a WHIP of 2.05.

That was a long time ago. He was 22 years old and just out of college. He was converted to a reliever in 2008 and did so well in that new role that it got him to the Majors by 2009. Walks killed him as a starter (he averaged more than one an inning) and he's dramatically improved in that area. Against MLB hitters, he walks 0.386 per inning.

That's one inning per appearance though, against hitters who hadn't yet seen his stuff. This Spring, he's struggled as a starter. 13 walks in 18.2 innings. And 17 hits.

As a reliever, he's been able to fool batters one time. As a starter, he's not fooling anyone and certainly not fooling them twice.

I don't expect him to finish the season as a member of the starting rotation.

Felix Doubrant is having an unbelievable Spring. Which means a lot today, but will mean nothing on Thursday. He's bounced around the lower levels of the Sox' minor league system, occasionally excelling and occasionally disappointing. I'm not surprised the Sox are giving him a chance to be a starter, I'll be shocked if he's still in the rotation once summer starts.

Alfredo Aceves has much more starting experience than Bard. 108 minor league starts and 9 in the Majors. Aceves could be a serviceable 5th starter. An innings eater. He won't be horrible like John Lackey was last year. He'll give 5 or 6 innings of solid work a night, with an ERA hovering above 4.50. And that's not bad for a 5th starter.

But if he is the 4th starter, then that's scary.

Right now he's in the bullpen, but I think will wind up in the rotation very soon.

It's a chilling thought, but the savior of the Red Sox rotation might be Daisuke Matsuzaka. He might not be able to return until the middle of summer. And his contribution will be even less predictable than usual thanks to Tommy John surgery.

But if Lester pitches like Lester, Beckett pitches up to (or even close to) his potential, and Buchholz manages to stay healthy, Daisuke is not a bad 4th starter.

Unfortunately for the Sox, Daisuke needs a strong bullpen in order to succeed. And we'll discuss how unlikely that will be in the next preview post.

It's All About Pitching

Everyone's been blaming Theo and Tito for the Red Sox' September swoon. They're even blaming pitching coach Curt Young, which is slightly more intelligent since it is pitching that wins and pitching that loses. I know that's hardly an original thought, but with the blame game being played, I feel like all the fault for this stretch of wretched baseball belongs to this team's starting pitchers.

The Red Sox are 29th in Quality Starts (starts of 6+ innings, allowing 3 earned runs or less). 70 Quality Starts in 160 games. Only Baltimore has fewer with 60. The Yankees have 84. The Phillies have 107. And that's too bad, because when the Sox do get a Quality Start, they're nearly unstoppable. They're 54-16 in those 70 games (.771). Without a Quality Start, the Sox are 35-55 (.389).

Beckett and Lester have the lion's share of Quality Starts for the Sox. 38 combined. Yet in September, they've only each made one Quality Start. These are the foundations of the Red Sox rotation, and they are having two of the biggest slumps on the team.

One reason the Sox don't have as many Quality Starts as they could is the loss of Buchholz. Buchholz struggled in April, but 6 of his last 9 starts were Quality Starts. The Red Sox were 8-1 in those 9 starts. Losing him has cost the rotation some serious stability.

Losing Daisuke didn't hurt much, to be frank. He only had 2 Quality Starts in 7 chances.

I wasn't that impressed with this rotation at the beginning of the year. It seemed to rely on Beckett being consistent (something his career record has proven that he isn't), Daisuke being both good and healthy (something which is almost as rare as Beckett being consistent), a young Buchholz duplicating an extraordinary season, and John Lackey being the exact opposite of what he's been lately.

Lackey actually got worse, Beckett was great for a time, but now he's slumping (his inconsistency reappearing). Buchholz was doing well then got hurt, Daisuke wasn't doing well then got hurt. And Lester is a good 2 or 3 pitcher and not an Ace.

We all thought we had a better rotation than the Yankees. But we don't. We never did. We mocked them for just having CC Sabathia, but there's no pitcher on the Sox even close to Sabathia. And the Yankees don't have anyone as bad as Lackey.

It's all about pitching. Even with a fantastic offense, if you don't get a good start, you're going to struggle to win. If Beckett or Lester each made just one more Quality Start in September, the Sox could have already clinched. Now, their postseason lives are on the line. And if they don't get Quality Starts in the next two (maybe three) games, then they'll almost surely die.

SOX IN HEAVEN AFTER SWEEPING ANGELS

The Sox are only one game below .500 and they owe it all to the Angels. Remember last year? The Sox owned Anaheim, going 9-1 against them. So while I'm happy the Sox are now only 3.5 behind the Yankees, and have a record that's not too shameful, beating the Angels is old news.

Lackey beating the Angels doesn't impress me. But Daisuke beating them does. Then again, Daisuke's problem has been consistency, and two great starts don't demonstrate that a consistency problem has been solved. I'm not aboard the Daisuke bandwagon yet. And won't be for some time.

One thing the Sox have thoroughly demonstrated with this 8-1 run, is that pitching wins. Even if half the lineup is slumping, even if the bullpen is shaky, good starting pitching makes winning easy. Crawford is still hitting below his weight, Lowrie's the only guy hitting over .300, and it seems like a new middle-reliever struggles in every game. But the wins keep coming so long as the starts are good.

To continue this roll, Buchholz needs to step up. He's lost his confidence, he's been obsessing with baserunners, and allowing homeruns. The offensively challenged (3rd fewest runs scored in baseball) Orioles present Buchholz with an opportunity to re-establish his place in this rotation. He's the only starter yet to register a Quality Start.

He faces 3-1 Zach Britton Tuesday night in Baltimore. And yes, Britton is a lefty.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

DICE-L STRIKES AGAIN

It took Tampa Bay 5 games before they scored 7 runs. Daisuke allowed that many in 2 innings. Everything he threw was a meatball, with no action, no bite, it was essentially batting practice for the Rays.

The people that think Daisuke is a good pitcher really baffle me. They allude to his 18 win season. But if any normal player came up through the minors, had a decent rookie year, then had an 18 win sophomore campaign, then struggled for two years, we'd dismiss them as washed up. As Brian Rose redux. Why is Daisuke any different?

He's just not a good pitcher. He doesn't throw strikes. He needs 20+ pitches to get out of an inning. He taxes the bullpen. And who knows if he's healthy or hurt?

That's pretty much all there is to say about this game.

Jon Lester faces David Price tonight.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

DICE-L

I really thought Daisuke was going to turn the Sox' fortunes around last night. He's always done well against Cleveland. And they tend to be free swingers. I was wrong.

He wasn't awful. But in typical Daisuke fashion, even when he does well, he fails to do well for long enough. And while it was the bullpen that ultimately lost this game, Daisuke gave the bullpen a chance to lose it, by only going 5 innings.

And during those 5 innings, he nibbled. And he nibbled. He threw a joke of a 90 MPH fastball right down the middle to Choo, and it was crushed. He nibbled some more. He walked batters. He hit a batter. He allowed 10 baserunners in 5 innings.

But he didn't lose this game by himself. Not by a longshot. Ellsbury struck out 3 times and went 0 for 5. We're still waiting for him to hit. Youkilis went 0 for 4, continuing his struggles. And Varitek messed up a defensive play, turning what should have been an out into a Cleveland run. His mistake of not tagging Buck at the plate was inexcusable for a veteran and a "Captain."

Then the bullpen. That's worrying me more than anything else right now. The starting pitching is what it is. The offense will inevitably improve. Guys like Ellsbury and Youkilis are not sub-.200 hitters. They'll come around. The bullpen, however, has been nothing but a disaster so far. Dan Wheeler was supposed to be the 2nd set-up man alongside Bard. He's allowed 2 homeruns already. And Reyes was supposed to add depth. He's only added mass, and a heavy ERA.

A few bright notes from last night: Gonzalez hit his first homerun with the team. And Crawford got on base, then ran, stealing his first 2 bases of the season.

The rotoation starts all over again, and maybe that's what this club needs. Lester faces Fausto Carmona, who allowed 10 runs in 3 innings against Chicago. First pitch at 12:05 this afternoon.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

2011 RED SOX PREVIEW: PITCHING

100 wins. All I keep hearing about is 100 wins. It's something the Red Sox haven't done since 1946. But is that really the achievement to long for? The Sox lost the 1946 World Series. And there are some parallels to that 1946 team, which led the Majors in offense, scoring half a run per game more than anyone else, but were 9th of 16 teams in runs allowed. They lost the World Series to St. Louis, the team that allowed the fewest runs in baseball.

Then, as now, pitching wins. And that's where I'll start this preview. Because even though a great offense can win 100 regular season games, it's pitching that wins 11 postseason games.

The Sox rotation looks the same as last year. And it has just as many question marks. We can pretty much bank on Jon Lester to have an ERA below 3.50, and 16 to 20 wins. He's been the rock of the rotation, and one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball the last 3 seasons.

Then there's Buchholz. Call me negative, but him repeating his 2010 feats is not guaranteed. We've all sort of assumed he will once again register an ERA around 2.50 and win close to 20 games. Maybe he will. Even 17 wins and a 3.00 ERA would be excellent. But he's 26. He has one great season under his belt. He's still a question mark. Even though he's overshadowed by much larger question marks in the rotation.

15-10 record. 3.96 ERA. 23 homeruns. That's what Josh Beckett averages every 162 games in his career. Even I was a little stunned to see that. It's so below average. With the Red Sox, he's been 71-40 with a 4.29 ERA. And since 2008, he's been atrocious. It's gotten to the point that Beckett isn't much of a question mark anymore. He's a bad pitcher until proven otherwise.

Among qualifying pitchers, John Lackey had the 73rd lowest ERA in baseball last year. He did eat innings, but that's pretty much it. You can live with him as a #4 starter, but if Beckett doesn't have a good year, he's your #3. And if Buchholz falters, he's your #2. And that's an alarming thought.

Then there's Daisuke. If any other pitcher won 18 games their sophomore season, then was repeatedly injured, struggled when healthy, and averaged 96 walks per full season, we'd be talking about sending him to Pawtucket. So what makes Daisuke so special? I just don't have a good feeling about Daisuke in 2011. Even when healthy, even when at his best, he doesn't go deep into games. His 18 win season was coupled with 167.2 innings pitched. 90 pitchers managed to surpass that mark in 2010.

Sorry folks, but the rotation is too vulnerable, and too dependent on all the stars aligning. Actually, it's dependant on time travel. If Buchholz is the same as he was in 2010, if Beckett is the same as he was in 2007, if Daisuke is the same as 2008, if Lackey is the same as he was in 2007 and in another city....

But it's 2011.

Thankfully, the bullpen looks quite a bit better than last year. The Sox blew the 4th most saves in baseball last year. And with shaky starting pitching, the bullpen will be worked hard in 2011.

Papelbon is still the closer. And even though he's not as elite as he used to be, he's still good enough. It'd be tough to find an improvement over him, but it won't be hard to find a replacement.

Daniel Bard has impressed as a set-up man, with a 1.11 WHIP in 124 career relief innings. Bard and Papelbon represent a quality 8th and 9th inning tandem. But they can't be overworked. They need help.

Bobby Jenks is a possible option. That's what the Sox did to this bullpen: added options. They signed a number of guys, hoping that one or two would work out as reliable set-up men. In the dice game that is relief pitching, this is a viable strategy to build a quality bullpen.

But Jenks is coming off a bad year. And he's gotten progressively worse since 2007. You never know with relievers, but it's hard to imagine that trend changing.

I'm much more optimistic about Dan Wheeler, who's pitched with success in the AL East. He's 33, but has 530 appearances under his belt. He'll wind up as the secondary set-up guy alongside Bard.

Wakefield will be a mop up man and spot starter. Doubront will be used against lefties.

The rest of the bullpen will be a revolving door of arms. Maybe one will be reliable enough to be a 6th inning man, or the type of guy that's brought in when the Sox are down 2 runs in the 7th.

Overrall, the bullpen isn't great, but it's no longer a liability. The rotation, however, is very suspect. So much needs to happen for it to work. And so much can go wrong for it to fail. I don't see Beckett winning more than 15 games. I don't see Daisuke throwing more than 180 innings. I see Buchholz having a good-not-great year. I don't see Lackey doing much better than he did in 2010.

But the offense should be able to make up for these shortcomings. At least in the regular season.