Who Does Josh Beckett Remind You Of?

I know I'm a few days late discussing Josh Beckett's recent back spasms. I'm sorry for that.

What I'm not at all sorry about is how happy I was that he was booed after taking himself out of a game Tuesday night. While I'm sure the injury is legitimate, I have little sympathy for someone with such a low threshold of pain, and absolutely no sympathy for an athlete that doesn't take care of himself.

I can't figure out who Beckett reminds me of more. J.D. Drew, or his boyhood hero Roger Clemens.

Drew had no tolerance for physical discomfort. And neither does Beckett. For Beckett to operate at 100%, it seems like everything needs to be perfect. His back, his blisters, his lats, the wind, the weather, the crowd noise, the pre-game meal, the golf game he played two days earlier. He can't pitch well if just one little thing is off. He's a diva.

The great athletes are able to summon greatness when not in peak physical or mental condition. Michael Jordan with the flu, Pedro Martinez in Game 5 of the '99 ALDS, even Brett Favre the day after his father died.

I'm not asking or expecting Beckett to throw a perfect game with a strained muscle in his back. But it would be nice if he were able to pitch well even when feeling uncomfortable or in pain. Or just try to pitch at all. He seems more willing to leave a baseball game early than cancel a golf game.

He'd rather sit out then push through. Which is very J.D. Drew of him.

At least Drew was in shape, though. Beckett isn't. And this is how he is like his idol, Mr. Roger Clemens. As Clemens' career in Boston progressed, he added some Texas Toast to his body. His waist grew, his ERA grew, his innings decreased. That's very similar to Beckett. Beckett is 32 now, the same age Clemens was in the middle of his plumping and slumping.

I wonder if Ben Cherington will say that Beckett is in the "twilight" of his career. Then Josh will wind up with the Blue Jays, miraculously get in shape, throw 496.2 innings in 2 years, and win a pair of Cy Youngs.

In some ways, Beckett is worse than Clemens. The Red Sox Front Office battled Roger Clemens. Now, the Front Office enables Beckett. This lack of control over Beckett makes him a more dangerous monster.

Beckett is the guy more worried about finding the identity of last year's "snitch" than making the playoffs.

Beckett is the guy who golfed while injured, then instead of explaining that he was approved to do so, quoted how many days off he had and that it was nobody's business how he spent them.

Beckett is the guy leading Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz astray.

And the Front Office refuses to rein him in. They fired Francona and kept Beckett. But Valentine hasn't been a disciplinarian at all and doesn't seem to have support from the Front Office to be one. Most recently, the Sox allegedly had a chance to get rid of Beckett and send him back to Texas. They chose to keep him.

The Red Sox actually seem afraid to drop Beckett. Getting rid of him would be the same as waving a white flag for the 2012 season. That's true, but it would also give the green flag for the Sox to win in 2013 and beyond. Cherington didn't have the power to pull the trigger. Lucchino doesn't have the stones to sacrifice this mediocre season and look to win in 2013. And John Henry is probably looking to buy an Aussie Rules Football team.

Beckett is a perfect storm of jackassery. He doesn't stay in shape, he's a detriment to team morale, he's a bad influence on younger players, and he's soft (literally and figuratively).

If Roger Clemens, J.D. Drew, and a used douchebag could have a child, they would name it Josh Beckett.

Theo Epstein Revises History

The Sox are in Chicago to face the Cubs. Which means it's time to talk about former Red Sox GM Theo Epstein.

Just about every media outlet in New England had a piece or an interview with Theo this week. And he said some interesting things about his time with the Sox. He mentioned pressure to spend money and acquire players, and constant pressure to keep the team successful.

I can appreciate that. And I can appreciate Theo not wanting to work under Larry "Il Duce" Lucchino and Lord John Henry. But I don't know if I appreciated Epstein's tone or the way he explained his tenure in Boston. I got the sense that he was trying to say that mistakes he made weren't his fault. That he knew what he was doing was unwise, but that he was giving in to organizational pressure.

Theo's moves won the Sox two World Series. So let's just state that right off the bat. He made the Nomar trade, he signed Ortiz, he traded for Beckett, all these moves (and more) helped the Sox win it all in 2004 and 2007.

He wasn't perfect. Nobody is. But some of the deals he made were silly. Especially when he spent lots of money. JD Drew. An injury prone John Lackey. Spending $51 million just to talk to Daisuke. Re-signing Beckett. Bobby Jenks. Giving Carl Crawford $142 million.

The sizes of the contracts were what made the signings odd. Carl Crawford was a very good player with the Rays, but the size of the deal was beyond even his expectations. Nobody was bidding against the Sox when they signed him. They just threw a bunch of money at him.

So Epstein is saying that there was a desire to try to improve and to win every year, and that overwhelmed his patience. So he compromised his philosophy and would "settle for a different move that maybe doesn't check all the boxes."

If that's the case, it's still his responsibility. And what is he afraid of? He had two rings. He once quit the organization. And yet he felt pressured to compromise his philosophy? He didn't feel confident in the patience that won the World Series twice?

That doesn't make sense.

What I think actually happened was that he tried to be too clever with his big acquisitions. He was a disciple of Billy Beane. He used his brain to make some smart moves. He found undervalued talent like David Ortiz, Bill Mueller, Mark Bellhorn, and so on. He turned the farm system around and it's been producing since. He had the balls to trade Nomar. He was very good at being a non-traditional GM.

But the traditional, big money stuff is different. It's simple. It doesn't require extraordinary intelligence. For example, the Yankees wanted CC Sabathia. He's a great pitcher, so they gave him lots of money. It's not brain surgery.

But he tried to be clever and different in this area too.

He always saw Julio Lugo as a guy capable of becoming a superstar. So even though he had never had his breakout season, Theo paid him close to $9 million. Because Theo thought if he had that breakout year, then $9 million would be a bargain. He never broke out.

People shied away from JD Drew because of injury and attitude problems. But Theo saw the injury history and his logic told him that Drew would be one of the best in the game if he weren't so unlucky with injuries. So he gave an injury prone player a 5 year deal worth $70M. Drew missed an average of 40 games per season.

Everyone was excited about Daisuke, but none more than Theo and the Sox. The Sox bid $11 million more than any team just to talk to Matsuzaka. Theo and the Sox thought they were smart enough to handle all the adjustments to pitching in the Majors, to a 5 man rotation, to pitch counts. Daisuke was supposed to reinvent pitching, and the Sox were going to help him do that. The results have been mixed with him.

Theo placed so much importance on value, but then he'd overpay for the guys he wanted to get. He's also hesitate to re-sign aging players with injury concerns. Then they sign Lackey and pay him over $16 million. They worry about age and health, then sign a 31 year old pitcher with a bad elbow.

Epstein did a lot for the Sox. For every Edgar Renteria there was a Keith Foulke and a Curt Schilling. For every JD Drew there's a Papelbon, a Lester, a Buchholz, et cetera.

BUT, he's full of it when he says he strayed from his own philosophies. That's garbage. He made mistakes. He thought he knew what he was doing, he thought he knew better than prevailing wisdom said. And for the smaller signings, he was right. On draft day, he was right. But for the big time free agents, he was wrong.

Theo has a sharp baseball mind. It takes a sharp baseball mind to see a part-time first baseman on the Twins with some pop and a patient approach and see potential for improvement. It takes a sharp baseball mind to have noticed David Ortiz before he became Big Papi.

It doesn't take a sharp baseball mind to see that Felix Hernandez is a good pitcher. And that Miguel Cabrera is a good hitter. The biggest acquisitions require the smallest amount of thought and analysis.

But Theo never turned his brain off. He's claiming now that he ignored it, but the problem was that whole he was here, he was using it too much.

I Don't Like the Francona Move, But I Understand It

Although he wasn't fired, and although it seemed to be a mutual breakup, the Red Sox' owners were not supporting Francona. Even if Francona wanted to work in such an environment, I doubt the Sox were going to pickup his option. There have already been reports that the ownership decided 2 weeks ago to cut him lose. This seems like a mutual breakup but it's not. Imagine if your girlfriend said "I'm not attracted to you and want to sleep with other men." You probably wouldn't want to see her anymore, but it wouldn't be a mutual breakup.

The Red Sox' collapse was not Terry Francona's fault. At least not nearly as much as the players' fault. No manager, no matter how insightful, inspiring, or ingenious, could get Erik Bedard to be anything but Erik Bedard. No manager could coax a shred of decency from John Lackey.

A very vocal and very stupid minority in Red Sox Nation are blaming Francona for lack of control in the clubhouse. The leaked incident about starting pitchers drinking during games is being used as People's Exhibit A against Francona, who has always been a player's manager.

It's funny how this vocal minority aren't blaming the grown men who acted like this. Francona isn't a disciplinarian, but he's not supposed to be a babysitter. During a game, is he supposed to do surprise inspections of the clubhouse? Like some college dorm RA, looking for booze.

I think we can guess who the problems were in this clubhouse. John Lackey is quite clearly a scumbag. He sounds like he's drunk all the time. He also pitches like he's drunk all the time.

Erik Bedard doesn't strike me as a good character. Some players, when they get a chance to play for a contender in a pennant race, step up their performance. Bedard seemed to lazily cruise.

JD Drew, at the very least, is not a positive influence.

Josh Beckett is a fraud. He's a fake Texas Tough Guy. He's a wannabe Stone Cold Steve Austin that gets sidelined by blisters and the slightest of illnesses. I can't say he was a clubhouse problem, but he doesn't seem to be much of a leader.

Then there's the excuse makers. Every time this team struggled, there were excuses. Injuries. The lack of a DH in interleague play. God. Et cetera.

This clubhouse was full of babies and jerks. And while they were winning, these character flaws were hidden. They were exposed when the losing started. It's the chicken and the egg, really. Does poor chemistry cause losing, or does losing cause poor chemistry. One thing I know from the past is that good chemistry prevents losing from lasting too long (See: 2004 ALCS).

Blaming Francona for how adults act is a bit silly. He's not a schoolteacher or a babysitter. He's a baseball manager. And he is who he is. He's not going to change his style because the players under his charge are misbehaving.

But even though it's not his fault that the players didn't respect him, when the situation deteriorates like it did in September, it's time to change managers. If employees don't respect their supervisor, even if it's not the supervisor's fault, you have to change supervisors.

This team is poorly assembled, though. Do Bill James and his mathmagicians take character (or lack of) into consideration when they recommend a player to Theo? I feel like Francona was a teacher given a classroom of drug addicts, troublemakers, and morons. Then he was fired because they acted like drug addicts, troublemakers, and morons.

The question now is who replaces Francona? Who replaces a man who averaged 93 wins in his 8 seasons here? Who replaces a 2 time World Series winner? Who replaces a guy who handled players like Manny Ramirez and Kevin Youkilis while simultaneously handling the Boston Sports Media and did so while never throwing anyone under the bus? What kind of man can juggle that well?

The Nation wants discipline. But Earl Weaver is not walking through that door.

Sox fans are clamoring for Joe Maddon. That'd be fine with me. It couldn't hurt Crawford's performance. But that guy is hardly Bill Parcells. He's not as laid back as Tito, but he's not a whip-cracker either. And why would he want to leave Tampa Bay? Why would he want to leave a contender that has great young pitching for a semi-contender that has awful veteran pitchers? Why would he want to leave a clubhouse full of character for a den of drinking and excuses.

To be honest, I don't think changing the managerial situation will turn this team around. Signing a top starting pitcher (CJ Wilson would be nice), giving Lackey his outright release (it's a better investment to pay him $15 million to not pitch here), getting Buchholz and Youkilis back, adding a reliable set-up man to the bullpen. These are the things that will bring October baseball back to Boston.

Francona Out

Terry Francona, who was the first Red Sox manager to win multiple World Series titles with the team since Bill Carrigan (1915 and 1916), will no longer be managing the Sox.

I'm not sure if this isn't a semi-mutual decision. Francona didn't seem pleased with the team he was given, nor with Theo Epstein, and I wouldn't be shocked if he told the Sox owners that he didn't want to be back, and at the same time management said to him that they didn't want him back.

We'll undoubtedly get some leaks in the Sox controlled media about a lack of discipline in the Sox clubhouse. Francona has a reputation for leniency, for being a "player's manager." To me, that's what allowed the Sox to be relaxed in the 2004 and 2007 ALCS. But those teams also had more veteran leadership to keep things in line.

They also had better pitching on those teams, which may have helped them win. I know that's a crazy idea, that good pitching wins games.

Quite frankly, I don't think that baseball managers have much of an effect on the game. It's not like football coaches who call the plays, or hockey and basketball coaches who constantly shift people in and out of the game. A baseball manager is relatively uninvolved in the winning and losing of a team.

That's why I feel this is unfair to Francona. He can't make John Lackey a better pitcher. He can't make JD Drew a tough, gutsy player. And he also doesn't have any power to punish these guys for not performing. What's he supposed to threaten JD Drew with? Benching him? "Either get out and play or I'm not going to let you play."

This team was not well assembled. And that's Theo Epstein's fault. John Lackey, Carl Crawford, and JD Drew commanded over $44.5 million in salary this season. What did they contribute? If I'm John Henry, and I've invested over $160 million (plus the luxury tax) into this team, I want to hold Theo accountable for how he's spent it. "What are you doing with my money?"

Sox fans want a manager that will be more of a disciplinarian. Do you think that will work in a clubhouse full of overpaid bums and underpaid superstars? Guys like Pedroia and Youkilis will fall in line, but those two are disciplined on their own, even without a manager. Sox fans are clamoring for a change in personalities. And I have a feeling that if Sox brass listen to them and hire some guy who will fine players for not shaving their sideburns, this team will suffer not prosper.

I understand the move, but if the Sox really want to turn the proverbial ship around, they can't just fire the ship's captain. They have to get rid of the guy who put the lazy crew together. In terms of results on the field, the Red Sox have let go of the best manager they've ever had.

Some Sad Salary Facts

One little fact that demonstrates how messed up this team is. Last night, Ryan Lavarnway was hitting 5th. JD Drew was hitting 6th, and Carl Crawford was hitting 8th. Lavarnway is a rookie, who started the year in AA Portland. The 24 year old catcher had 35 career MLB at-bats coming into last night's game. Yet he was hitting ahead of two veteran outfielders making $14 million and $14.9 million, respectively. And nobody seemed to think that it was a bad idea. That's how disappointing and overpaid Drew and Crawford are. Against a righthanded starter, these two lefties were below a righty, rookie catcher.

Another sad fact was the Sox' alleged effort to acquire Bruce Chen to pitch in Game 163. It might have been just rumors, but instead of putting a $16,000,000 pitcher on the mound (Lackey), the Sox were apparently trying to get a $2 million man from Kansas City.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

2011 RED SOX PREVIEW: HITTING

The Red Sox scored the 2nd most runs in baseball last year. They were 2nd in homeruns, 3rd in OBP, 2nd in slugging, 1st in OPS. In other words, they were pretty good at the plate. And they should be even better in 2011.

Adding Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez were the big stories of the off-season. Not to mention the returns of Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia, who only played in 102 and 75 games last year, respectively. These newcomers and returning producers should more than offset the loss of Beltre and Victor Martinez.

The middle of the lineup will be fierce. Gonzalez, liberated from San Diego's pitcher friendly park, should hit over .300, with an OBP close to .400, slug near .600, and approach 40 homers. Youkilis should hit nearly 30 homers, with an OBP well over .400, and slug around .570.

Putting Crawford and Pedroia ahead of them will result in abundant runs. Gonzalez could knock in 120, and Youkilis should easily surpass 100 RBI.

JD Drew's contract is up, so I think he'll actually play more than 140 games and produce. Then there's Ortiz, whose 32 homers and 102 RBIs were impressive in 2010. But he really struggled against lefties. Drew also can't hit southpaws. So against righties, the Sox will have an excellent 5-6 to keep the pressure on. Against lefties, you'll see plenty of innings ended by Drew and Ortiz.

The bottom of the lineup will be solid enough. I like Ellsbury as a 7th or 9th hitter, either keeping the middle of the orders' rallies going, or helping Crawford and Pedroia start a new one. He should hit .300, with a .350 OBP that keeps him from being a good leadoff option. Minimal power, but plenty of speed.

Scutaro had a decent year last season. But we've all sort of forgotten. So did Lowrie. Having both of them as options is a nice luxury. Both play good defense, and neither are easy outs. That's all you really want or need from the 8th spot in your lineup.

Speaking of easy outs, we come to Varitek/Saltalamacchia. They'll ground into so many double plays. That is, if they even make contact with the ball.

Anyway you stack it, this lineup is pretty sick. Mike Cameron can fill in for Drew against lefties. And the speed of Crawford and Ellsbury can help keep the whole batting order from slumping. And even if a tough lefty is on the mound, guys like Youkilis (.404 against LHP last year), can still give them problems.

The Sox scored 818 runs last year, or 5.05 per game. If they stay healthy, they'll score over 900.

You have an amazing offense, and suspect pitching. I'm reminded of the Cleveland Indians from 1995 to 1999. They'll be fun to watch. They'll win 100 regular season games. And they'll lose the World Series to a team with superior pitching. I'm thinking the Phillies. 1946 all over again.

RED SOX 2008 PREVIEW: RIGHT FIELD

One thing has always perplexed me about JD Drew. His real name is David Jonathan Drew. So why is he JD Drew? Does he simply omit the J in his full initials of DJD? If so, wouldn't that make his unpacked new name Jonathan Drew Drew? This question bugs me. It's like ITT Tech. What the hell do the two T's stand for?

JD Drew's name isn't the only thing that worries me. But I'm not as worried as some, or even most Red Sox fans.

JD came to town last year with two major expectations:

#1: He'd get injured and miss 30 to 60 games

#2: He'd produce as a solid #5 hitter in the games that he did play

Neither one of these expectations came true. He played in 140 games, missing some time with minor problems. But he didn't produce that much.

His average wasn't horrible, .270 for a career .284 hitter isn't the end of the world. His OBP also wasn't horrible at .373. But these not horrible, not great numbers combined with a poor .423 slugging percentage. That's a significant drop from JD's career slugging of .500.

Let's try to figure out what JD's strong points were, and what were his biggest weaknesses.

JD's biggest weakness was against left-handed pitching. This is not a new thing for him. Since 2005, there's a .060 decrease in his average when facing lefties. His slugging also plummets .169 points.

In 2007, JD hit .224 against lefties, with an OBP of .285, and a slugging percentage of .353. Against righties, he hit .286, with a .400 OBP, and a .446 slugging percentage. But he still wasn't much of a power hitter.

JD didn't struggle at Fenway Park, either. He actually hit much better at home (.284 BA, .392 OBP) than on the road (.259 BA, .356 OBP). So adjusting to a new ballpark wasn't too much of a problem.

Drew's biggest problem was a lack of power. Every conceivable measurement of a hitter's power indicates this. And all us Sox fans who watched him during the year already knew it.

In his career, Drew averages hitting a homerun once every 21 at-bats. In '07, it was once every 42.4 ABs. His IsoP (Isolated Power, one of those stats Bill James and his cadre of baseball nerds came up with to show how much power a hitter had) was down from his career average, as was his Secondary average (again, Bill James).

What's strange was that his other numbers were within his career norms. He saw the same amount of pitches per at-bat. Walked and struck out at his normal rate. Hit groundballs to flyballs just as often as usual. Everything is the same, except the power numbers.

Perhaps it was adjusting to new pitchers in the AL. Against NL teams, Drew hit very well. In 58 Interleague at-bats, he hit .329 with a .391 OBP and a .603 slugging percentage. Granted, this was almost entirely against the NL West, which was particularly weak at the time. Nevertheless, that's pretty good for a 58 at-bat stretch.

Against AL opponents, Drew's average dips slightly to .262, and his slugging falls to .397. And oddly enough, against an NL team in the World Series, Drew hit .333 with a pair of doubles and two RBI.

So will JD Drew pull a Josh Beckett and explode in his second year? I think he will. At least, I think he'll improve. Look for Drew to hit .280, with 23 HRs, and 85 to 95 RBI.

One problem, though, is the lefties. And it's a problem which lacks much of a solution. If Crisp is still around, Ellsbury could move over to right, and Crisp could play center. But then you're replacing a guy who can't hit lefties with a guy who just can't hit. You'd also be keeping Ellsbury in against the lefty. Then again, Crisp hits lefties better than righties. Maybe it's not such a bad idea.

Whatever Drew does in 2008, the Sox are depending on him more than last year. Last year Mike Lowell came out of nowhere, and Ortiz played through his knee problems. This year, Lowell is another year older, God knows how Ortiz's knees will be, Manny's been falling off slowly the past few seasons, and there's a rookie in center field.

The Sox could really use Drew as a contributing member of the lineup. If he produces the way he's capable of, the top 6 in the order starts looking very good. And as a lefty Drew slots in behind Ramirez and in front of Lowell (both righties) very nicely.



Sources:
Baseball-Reference.com
ESPN.com

RED SOX FALL 8-2 TO TWINS

With a win, the Red Sox would have clinched their 6th Mayor's Cup, but the Twins had other plans. Tim Wakefield got the start for the Sox and looked pretty good. He allowed just one hit in his two innings of work.

Mike Lowell gave the Sox a 1-0 lead with a solo homerun to leadoff the 2nd. But then Clay Bucholz came in. Bucholz allowed 4 runs in the 3rd off 5 hits and a walk. But he didn't look as bad as his line suggests. There were several hits that blooped into gaps, and a few that could've been caught by Red Sox fielders (Manny).



Bucholz's second inning of work was a quick 1-2-3. Hideki Okajima worked into and out of a jam in his inning. Javier Lopez, and Manny Delcarmen had scoreless innings. Then Craig Hansen came in and looked awful. He gave up 4 off 2 hits and 3 walks.

The Red Sox offense didn't look that good. Lowell's homer, and an RBI single by Pedroia produced the only 2 runs of the day. Crisp, Manny, Drew, and Youkilis were all held hitless. Although Drew did have a nice outfield assist at home plate.



The next televised Red Sox spring training game will be Thursday afternoon on ESPN. The Red Sox will host the Dodgers.

Source:
BostonRedSox.com

Photo Credits:
Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images
AP Photo/Brita Meng Outzen