5 Reasons Why the Red Sox Suck

It's official. The Red Sox suck. They might not suck a month from now, they certainly didn't suck last year, but on the 22nd of May in 2014, they certifiably suck.

Why? How could a World Championship team that never lost more than 3 in a row, devolve so quickly into a team with the 6th worst record in baseball, that's 4th in their division, and has just lost 6 consecutive games? Here are the reasons:

#1 Lost Offense
The 2014 Red Sox are scoring 4.07 runs per game, and are 17th in MLB in runs. The 2013 Sox scored 5.27 and scored the most runs in baseball. The Sox are scoring 1.2 runs per game less this year, and are on pace to score 194 less in the season. Where did those runs go?

Jacoby Ellsbury took many of them when he left and was not replaced. In 2013 Ellsbury got on base 219 times. He got 48 extra-base hits. He stole 52 bases. He got on base, he got into scoring position, and his presence at leadoff allowed Dustin Pedroia to hit later in the lineup.

Ellsbury was replaced with Grady Sizemore (.218 average, .293 OBP) and Jackie Bradley Jr. (.206 average, .302 OBP). As a team, the entire Red Sox roster is on pace to steal 50 bases this season. They stole 123 last year.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia's production also was not adequately replaced. He wasn't a Silver Slugger candidate or anything, but he did produce, giving the Sox an .804 OPS and 14 homeruns. He's been replaced by AJ Pierzynski, who doesn't quite fit with the Red Sox philosophy of patience. Pierswingski's OPS is .656, his OBP is .045 lower than Salty's in 2013, his SLG is .103 lower. Salty struck out 3.2 times per walk, but Pierswingski strikes out 6 times per walk. Salty saw 4.03 pitches per plate appearance in 2013, Pierswingski sees 3.47 in 2014.

Losing this production, the Red Sox depended more on a guy like Daniel Nava to put back-to-back solid seasons together for the first time in his career. Nava was a pleasant surprise in 2013, with a .385 OBP, hitting a few homeruns, knocking in 66, scoring 77.

In 2014, he hit .149 in 67 at-bats in Boston. In AAA Pawtucket, he's hitting .267 in 75 at-bats. He's being struck out more than he's walking, by AAA pitchers. He is getting on base (.371 OBP), so maybe he deserves a call up soon. What could it hurt to try?

This team relied too much on hoping its young players would work out. Xander Bogaerts has done his part on offense (although his defense has been abysmal). But Will Middlebrooks is hitting .197, and I already mentioned Jackie Bradley Jr.

The Red Sox are getting on base. They're 4th in baseball with a .331 team OBP. However, they have no power. The team's .379 SLG is 19th in the Majors (and about .050 lower than the team's SLG in 2013). The Sox are 21st in homeruns with 36.

#2 Clay Buchholz
The 2013 Sox were 11-1 in Buchholz starts before he got hurt in June. They were 3-1 in his starts when he returned in September, then 3-1 in his postseason starts. In 2014, the Sox are 3-6 when Buchholz takes the mound.

By this time last year he had 9 quality starts. He has 4 in 2014. He says he's healthy. I wish he were injured.

#3 Team Defense
The Red Sox have the 12th most errors (30) in baseball, last year they had the 8th fewest (80). They're on pace to commit 28 more errors in 2014 than they committed in 2013.

The Red Sox allowed 43 unearned runs in 2013, but in 2014 are on pace to allow 83. So instead of allowing an unearned run once every 4 games, the Sox are allowing an unearned run every other game.

#4 Felix Doubront
Doubront was decent at the back of the rotation last year. He won 11 games, threw 16 quality starts, and finished the year with a 4.32 ERA. Not bad for a back end starter. The Sox were 18-11 in his starts. They're 4-5 in his starts this year. And he's banged his elbow against a car door, and hit the DL with a classic OIBI (Only In Baseball Injury, pronounced wee-bee).

#5 No Clutchness
Did you know the Red Sox blew 42% of their save opportunities in 2013? The Sox were the 3rd worst team in baseball in converting saves. Why is that stat so shocking? Because they won so many close games.

Even when a reliever blew a lead, the Sox would find a way to come back and win. That same reliever might dig deep and keep the game tied, or keep the Sox within 1 run. Then the offense would find a way to win in the 9th or in extras.

The Sox hit .278 with runners in scoring position (RISP) last year. They're hitting .240 with RISP this year. More impressively, the Sox had a .794 OPS with RISP in '14. It's down to .695 this year. The Sox slugged .078 higher with runners in scoring position last year.

Xander Bogaerts, who is having a fine offensive year with a .381 OBP, is hitting .158 with runners in scoring position.

Jonny Gomes was Mr. Clutch last year, hitting .346 with RISP. He's down to .286 this year. Ortiz went down from .315 to .222. Pedroia from .312 to .270. Ortiz and Pedroia are the team's best hitters. If they're not doing the job with RISP, the offense can't function. On the bright side, we know they can, and they probably will improve those numbers.

The Sox offense should get better, but there's a ceiling to it. Pedroia, Ortiz, and probably Bogaerts will improve with runners in scoring position. However, the rest of the offense is what it is.

Once Clay Buchholz does start to pitch better, he'll probably get hurt.

The team's defense improves with the return of Stephen Drew. And perhaps the offense as well, if Bogaerts plays 3rd and Middlebrooks brings his sub-Mendoza average to the bench.

I don't think Felix Doubront will be much better than what he's been.

Clutchness is unpredictable. Last year the Sox had clutchness in their blood. This year it's like they've been infected with a virulent strain of anti-clutchness.

Photo Credit:
Elise Amendola/Associated Press

Red Sox on a Mission for .500

The Red Sox need to win every single game in order to avoid their first sub-.500 finish since 1997. And they're on their way. Only 13 more wins to go.

Felix Doubront went 6 innings and only 1 hit. He also allowed 5 walks. But it's good to see him get another win, and maybe end 2012 on a positive note. Doubront and Clay Buchholz are now tied for the team lead with 11 wins. Which speaks volumes about the struggles of the Sox rotation.

I wouldn't mind Doubront as a #5 pitcher in a future rotation, so long as the 1-4 pitchers were actually 1-4 pitchers. This team is loaded with #4 and #5 pitchers, and that's one reason they'll need a 15 game win streak in order to finish 81-81.

Cody Ross had a pair of hits, including his 32nd double. It'd be nice to see him back with this team next season.

There's nothing about this team you can't enjoy by watching any garden variety reality TV show. A reality TV show that lasts over 4 hours.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Red Sox Back to .500

The Red Sox are 51-51, thanks to beating the Yankees 2 times out of 3 this weekend. But as much fun as it is to win a series in Yankee Stadium, we all need to take a step back and look at the larger picture.

The Sox have played 102 games and are a .500 team. Why should we expect them to be anything better in the 60 games they have yet to play?

In the first game of the series, Aaron Cook and Mark Melancon were battered around. Melancon has proven to be utterly useless.

In the second game, Jon Lester outpitched CC Sabathia. And typically that would be impressive. But Sabathia sucked, and Lester was mediocre. So while he was better than Sabathia, he was not great.

It was important for Lester to not have a bad start. It was important for him to not get a loss, and for the Sox to win a game he started. It wasn't a very good start though. He gave up 2 homers and 4 runs in 6 innings. He still needs to improve.

Last night Prince Felix Doubront did a very good job, and the Sox squeezed a win out. Alfredo Aceves blew a save but recovered nicely.

If you've allowed yourself to ride the Red Sox emotional roller coaster this season, then right now you might be feeling positive. However, as a whole, they're a strictly .500 team. We're still waiting to see Beckett pitch consistently, and we're waiting for Lester to return to the stable rock he once was.

The Tigers are in town starting tonight. Clay Buchholz faces Max Scherzer. Scherzer is 10-5. He started the season poorly but has pitched well the last two months.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Terror in a Texas Ballpark

When Larry Luchhino or Ben Cherington need to make a major decision, they have to call Mike Napoli and get approval. Because he owns the Red Sox. He has a higher career slugging percentage against the Red Sox than any other player. Ever. He slugs .725 against the Sox. Nelson Cruz slugged .710, Babe Ruth slugged .683, Frank Robinson .652, and Lou Gehrig .644.

Last night he hit a 2 run homerun, part of a 9 run Ranger onslaught. And the Red Sox fell below .500 for the first time since June 16th.

Giving up 9 runs to the Rangers is bad, but it's not as depressing as the Red Sox offense was. They were 0 for 7 with runners in scoring position. Crawford didn't get on base, striking out twice. Pedroia got 3 hits, but Adrian Gonzalez got 0 hitting behind him. Ryan Sweeney, the 8th hitter in the lineup, had the best offensive chances. That's not how it's supposed to work.

I don't like Carl Crawford hitting 2nd. I know he's fast. And that's great. But how often will you try stealing bases when your best hitters are coming up? And if those hitters are power hitters, why risk stealing 2nd when you're still able to score from 1st on a double? And anyway, the #2 hitter's main purpose is to get on base. Which Crawford hasn't been great at in his career. His .333 career OBP doesn't justify his hitting in either of the top 2 spots of the lineup.

I'd prefer to see Crawford at the bottom of the order, hitting 7th, 8th, or 9th. Then he can use his speed to help the bottom of the order generate a few extra runs.

Hitting Crawford 2nd pushes everyone back a spot, which also reduces their at-bats. He also strikes out far too often for a top of the lineup kind of guy who doesn't hit for much power.

Dustin Pedroia was designed to be a #2 hitter. He's not an easy out, he's not going to clog the bases, he's a smart hitter, a smart baserunner, his career OBP is .368.

Right now my base lineup would be: Ellsbury, Pedroia, Gonzalez, Ross, Saltalamacchia, Middlebrooks, Crawford, Aviles, Nava/Sweeney.

Then when Ortiz returns: Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz, Gonzalez, Ross, Saltalamacchia, Middlebrooks, Crawford, Aviles. Now that's a lineup. Ellsbury and Pedroia get on base. You have multiple power guys in the middle who can knock runs in. Then some decent power after that to mop up, and a solid back of the lineup that can generate runs and give Ellsbury and Pedroia some RBI opportunities.

Having Crawford bat 2nd means the lineup relies too heavily on a player who never was great at getting on base. And this is also a guy who hasn't yet proven he is nearly as good as he was back in 2010.

This doesn't solve the Red Sox' pitching problems. Guys like Felix Doubront have carried the team while Beckett and Lester have been lying down on the job. And now Doubront is looking more like Felix Doubront.

Fixing this team's pitching is a simple plan, but it's not easy to execute. Josh Beckett and Jon Lester need to pitch better. Easy to say, but will it actually happen? Beckett might go on one of his runs of excellence. He might not. Flip a coin.

But Jon Lester is staring into the abyss right now. His next start could be a turning point in his career, one way or the other.

Beckett and Lester need to do their jobs. Felix Doubront is simply not capable of carrying the load that these guys are supposed to assume responsibility for. Doubront has done well, but he's no Josh Beckett or Jon Lester.

Thankfully, Clay Buchholz is on the mound tonight. The Sox could use another great start from him. He faces 21 year old Martin Perez. Perez has made two Major League starts this year, one was decent, one was horrible. However, he's also a lefty, and the Sox have no experience against him. So Buchholz might need to be brilliant in order for this losing streak to be stopped.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Ross and Gonzalez Power Red Sox

Cody Ross and Adrian Gonzalez knocked in all 10 Red Sox runs last night. Prince Felix Doubront made another very solid start and the Red Sox cruised to a 10-1 victory.

Ross hit a pair of 3 run homers, one in the 3rd, the next in the 4th. He now has 15 on the season, along with 47 RBI. Ross has the second best slugging percentage (.557) on the team, behind David Ortiz. So with Ortiz on the DL, the Sox need him to continue to hit for power.

Adrian Gonzalez also needs to help fill the void left by Ortiz. And he's starting to do that. He was 3 for 4 last night with a solo homerun and a pair of RBI singles. He knocked in 4 runs.

In his last 20 games, Gonzalez is hitting .427, slugging .598, has hit 3 homeruns and knocked in 19 runs.

Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford did their job and got on base. Ellsbury was 3 for 4 with a double. Crawford was 1 for 3. Ellsbury scored 3 times, Crawford twice.

The offensive output from the top of the order slightly overshadowed yet another good outing by Felix Doubront. He already has 10 Quality Starts this season. Most of them are the 6 inning, 3 earned run variety, but that's good enough. He's only failed to go 5 innings in 3 starts. He's gone 6+ innings 12 times.

This was a great combination win. The big name talent like Gonzalez, Ellsbury, and Crawford did their job. The second-tier guys like Ross and Doubront continued to go above and beyond.

The Sox have a good chance to win this series tonight. Clay Buchholz faces 4-1 Jose Quintana. Quintana is a leftahander who's had consistency problems. For instance, he had an 8 inning 1 run start against the Rangers. Then followed that by getting knocked around by the Royals for 5 runs in 5 innings.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Runless in Seattle

The Mariners suck. The Red Sox split a 4 game series with a team that sucks. By itself, that's not a big deal. But considering the inconsistency the Sox have displayed this season, it's another frustrating weekend. The Sox don't take advantage of the opportunities they have.

They got good pitching performances all weekend. Then again, the Mariners really do suck. I'm surprised they're not no-hit once a week.

Felix Doubront Doubront labored yesterday, but the bullpen was able give the Sox a chance. On Saturday, Beckett went 6 innings and allowed 2 runs in his return from "injury." On Friday, Aaron Cook only needed 81 pitches to go 9 innings. That's 9 pitches an inning for those of you who forgot your multiplication tables. Not a single pitch he threw was swung on and missed. That's ludicrous.

But the Red Sox didn't generate much offense themselves. 9 runs in 4 games. 9 runs in 39 innings. The Red Sox seemingly forgot how to get hits with runners in scoring position. An inconsistency which has plagued them all year. And last September.

On the bright side, the Sox are half a game out of the Wild Card. And the Orioles are falling from the sky.

But to be a true contender, they have to take advantage of their opportunities. They had a 4 game series against one of the worst teams in the American League and they split 2-2. It's not a disaster, but it's hardly worth celebrating.

They travel to Oakland tonight to face the 38-42 Athletics. Matsuzaka faces Jarrod Parker. The 23 year old Parker has pitched pretty well. He's 4-3 with a 2.57 ERA. In June, he was 3-1 with a 2.18 ERA. I have a bad feeling that the Sox bats won't wake up until Tuesday.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Messy Night at Fenway

It was ugly last night. Ugly defense, ugly pitching, ugly weather. The Blue Jays hit a trio of 2 run homers (2 off Doubront, 1 off Albers), the Sox made mistakes in the field, and a battle between two pitchers having off-nights ended with the Jays on top 9-6.

This was one of the few times that Felix Doubront hasn't pitched well enough to give the Sox a good chance to win the game. He'd been averaging 8.51 runs of support per 9 innings, but he hadn't needed that to get his 8 wins. He's typically pitched decently enough for the Sox to win if they score 4 or more runs.

Not last night. He struggled to throw strikes at times. And when he did hit the strikezone, the Jays hit him. 51 of Doubront's pitches were strikes, 25 of those were hit in play. You can blame unfortunate bounces for some of Toronto's scoring, but when a pitcher allows a team to put the ball in play that often, bad things happen.

It's important for the Sox to rebound from this ugliness and not allow it to become a mini-streak. Daisuke is on the mound tonight. He faces Aaron Laffey. He's a lefty making his first start of the season.

Elsewhere, Kevin Youkilis made his White Sox debut and was 1 for 4. And I already dislike Brent Lillibridge. When asked about moving from team-to-team, he called baseball a "sorority." People are stupid sometimes.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Red Sox Squish the Fish

The Sox scored 12 times in the first 4 innings, pummeling Ricky Nolasco (his name makes me think of Oreos) and the Marlins.

David Ortiz only had 1 hit, but it was a big one: a Grand Slam in the 4th that busted open a 7-4 game, turning it into an 11-4 blowout. It was his 10th Grand Slam in a Sox uniform, which is 2nd in team history. Ted Williams has the most with 17. Ted Williams was pretty good.

Ortiz is the only star on this team that seems like a different player than he was last year. He's in much better shape, and he's trying to be a leader. Last year he was chubby and passive. He's only 11 HR and 53 RBI away from matching his totals of last season.

There's no way to scientifically measure how well he's doing as a clubhouse leader, but as a leader on the field, the evidence is clear and overwhelming. He leads the Sox in Average, OBP, Hits, Homeruns, RBI, Runs, Total Bases, Walks, SLG, and OPS. That's leadership.

Mike Aviles hit a 3 run homer, Will Middlebrooks hit a 2 run shot, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia hit a solo blast. He now has 13, which is 2nd most on the team, and 8 more than Adrian Gonzalez.

Daniel Nava was 4 for 5 and scored twice. Ryan Kalish was 2 for 5. Cody Ross was 1 for 4 with a bases loaded, 3 run double in the 3rd. Kevin Youkilis was 2 for 3 with a double and a walk.

Felix Doubront cruised to his 8th victory of the season behind the offensive onslaught. He allowed 4 runs in 6 innings. It wasn't his best start, but it was good enough.

He and Buchholz are tied with the team lead at 8 wins. While Buchholz has been the beneficiary of good fortune and ample run support, Doubront has truly earned his 8-3 record. By the way, 8 is the amount of wins that Lester and Beckett have combined.

The Sox go for the sweep tonight as Daisuke Matsuzaka faces Carlos Zambrano. The Venezuelan giant has failed to make it out of the 3rd inning in his last 2 starts. Walks have been a major issue for him so if the Sox can be patient, get on base, then get those RISP hits, they should continue to score runs in bunches.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Doubront It? You Got It!

Prince Felix returned to form last night, rebounding from one of his first stumbles of the season. He went 7 innings, struck out 9, only allowing 2 runs off 3 hits and a walk. It was one of his best starts all year.

The Sox finally managed to score some runs. As usual, it came as a bunch. They scored 4 off Nolasco, then took advantage of Randy Choate and the Marlins' bullpen in the 8th. They scored 6 in that inning. Up until last night, they'd scored 6 runs in the previous 27 innings.

Good pitching creates the possibility of winning. It makes winning easy. All the hitters have to do is hit. There's 9 of them, and they get 27 outs to play with, so they should be able to hit and score runs. Quality pitching is the biggest cause of winning.

And that's what Felix Doubront has given the Red Sox this season. He deserves his 7-3 record. He's been a rock. He's been reliable. He's only failed to go 5 innings twice. And he's gone 6+ eight times. You really can't ask for more from him.

The Sox continue to play well on the road. They're 17-13 away from Fenway. Maybe it has something to do with the wind.

Speaking of wind, they'll be in Chicago to face the 6th place Cubs. They're 20 games below .500. The Sox must take advantage of this struggling opponent.

Matsuzaka makes his second start of the season. He faces Ryan Dempster, who is 2-3 but has a 2.31 ERA. He hasn't allowed a run since May. This doesn't bode well for the Sox offense.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Bard Needs to Go to the Bullpen, But the Red Sox Have Been Good Otherwise

The experiment of Bard in the rotation has proven unsuccessful. He simply isn't a starter. And the culprit is the same thing that prevented him from being a starter when he was first drafted: bases on balls.

In 55 innings, he's walked 37 batters. He's struck out 34. Yesterday he threw 55 pitches. 24 were strikes. A good pitcher will throw twice as many strikes as balls (or better). But not Bard. When he's a starter, the walks pile up. And because he isn't throwing many strikes, so does the pitch count. It's the same problem that plagued him in 2007 in A ball. He's also hit 6 batters this year.

When Daisuke is ready to return, Bard needs to go to the bullpen. It simply is not working out for him in the rotation. At best, he's a #5 pitcher, giving you 180 mediocre innings. I'd rather have 80 quality innings from him out of the pen.

Apart from Bard's struggles, the Sox have been thriving. They've only lost 1 of their last 7 series. They're 16-7 since David Ortiz called a players only meeting after Beckett was shelled by the Indians on May 10th. They're still last in the AL East, but they're only 1.5 games out of the second Wild Card spot.

On Saturday, Felix Doubront had yet another Quality Start. He's now 6-2 and deservedly so. You really can't ask more from a 4/5 pitcher than that. Not to mention his ERA is 3.75.

And Clay Buchholz seems to have settled down. He went 8 innings Friday night, only allowing 2 runs. He struck out 7. That's two straight Quality Starts for Buchholz. He only has three on the season. He has a 2.40 ERA in his last two starts. 15 innings, 4 earned runs, not bad at all.

The Sox need to keep this momentum going. They can take advantage of a Baltimore team that's been struggling lately. They have today off. Then Lester faces 6-2 Jason Hammel on Tuesday.

Photo Source:
AP Photo

Red Sox Reach .500... Again

The Red Sox can't seem to pass the .500 mark. They're 0-5 the game after they reach .500.

The Rays finally took a series from the Sox. The Rays' pitchers quieted the Sox' bats. The Sox only scored 10 runs in their weekend series. And while Saltalamacchia won Saturday's game with a walk-off win, Alfredo Aceves returned the favor to Tampa Bay by blowing a save. His 3rd blown save of the season.

Jonathan Papelbon has yet to blow a save this season.

People have been praising the Red Sox bullpen. But such praise is merely selective memory. In the last 20 games, the bullpen has been decent. The 20 games before that, not so much. Looking at the guys that are out there, none of them are guys I'd classify as tough-situation-relievers. When the game is on the line, how confident are you when Padilla or Albers comes jogging in from the bullpen? Be honest.

The Sox scored some runs off Doug Fister yesterday, and that's not easy to do. They got 11 hits off him, including 3 doubles and a homerun. It was Saltalamacchia's ninth. He has 5 more homeruns than Adrian Gonzalez, in 69 fewer at-bats, and for $19.6 million less salary. He's been a nice and surprising offensive contributor.

The Sox got another very respectable start from Doubront. Prince Felix went 6, allowing 2 runs off 4 hits and a walk. He struck out 6. He's 5-2 on the season, which means he's the winningest pitcher in the rotation. He's the only Sox starter with an ERA under 4. Again, a nice and surprising contributor.

I enjoy rooting for the Felix Doubronts and Jarrod Saltalamacchias on this team. They try. They care. They're playing to the maximum of their potential. And they're the reason this team is .500 and within shouting distance of a playoff spot.

As I said at the start of this post, the Sox are 0-5 when they've had a chance to be over .500. Technically, I suppose it's 0-6 since they lost their first game (when they were 0-0). I'm not overly optimistic that they'll improve on that mark, as Verlander is on the mound for Detroit. Bard is pitching for the Sox.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Sox Silenced

The Sox managed only 2 hits and apart from a Youkilis homerun, Brian Matusz utterly silenced the Sox' lineup. Aviles, Pedroia, and Ortiz went 0 for 12. It's unfair to single them out, though, because apart from Youkilis' homer and an Adrian Gonzalez single, the entire lineup was quieted.

Youkilis started at first. Gonzalez was in the outfield. Cody Ross' injury was convenient for Youkilis and/or Middlebrooks as it allowed them both to stay in the lineup. Gonzalez is not a long-term solution in the outfield, but the Sox don't have much of a choice.

Doubront had another good start. It went to waste last night, but it was still very encouraging. He struck out 9, which is just as many as Matusz. 6 innings, only 2 runs. Without him, the Sox would be completely screwed. Especially with how Bard and Buchholz have struggled. Not to mention Matsuzaka's health concerns. Doubront has anchored the bottom of the rotation.

The Sox got shut down by a good lefty. It happens. The problem with the Sox is they allow it to happen too often.

So today is a good chance to rebound. Daniel Bard faces Jake Arrieta. This is a great opportunity for Bard to step up and win a game when the Sox could really use a win to keep their momentum going. Arrieta's overall numbers aren't dazzling, but he's had the occasional brilliant start. His last one was 7 innings and 1 run. And on May 2nd he pitched 8 shutout innings against the Yankees. There were 10 innings and 13 runs between those starts, though. He's been inconsistent.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Prince Felix and Sox Beat Rays

How vital has Felix Doubront been to the Red Sox? The Sox are 6-2 in his starts. That's a full third of the Sox' total wins. He hasn't been amazing, he's been just good enough to get the job done. And that's what you want from a middle of the rotation guy. Last night was another very Doubrontish type of start. 5.2 innings, 2 runs, only 1 of them earned. He struck out 7. He allowed 6 hits and 4 walks, but only one of those hits was for extra bases.

Doubront has been a life preserver for this team, keeping them from sinking completely.

Another surprise performer that has kept the Sox afloat is Cody Ross. He drew a bases loaded walk in the 1st, hit a solo homerun in the 3rd, and a 2 run single in the 8th. His 4 RBI night raised his season total to 27. All of his RBI came with 2 outs. Last night he was the only Sox batter to get a hit with runners in scoring position.

It was nice to see the streaky Sox bounce back from a loss and get a win on the road. Especially against a divisional opponent. The Sox are 4-2 against Tampa Bay.

They'll lose the DH this weekend down in Philadelphia. I'd rather they sit Gonzalez than Ortiz. Ortiz's average is .072 higher than Gonzalez's, Ortiz's OBP is .066 higher, and his SLG is .207 higher.

Lester faces Joe Blanton tonight. Blanton's had an up and down season. Although he already has four starts in which he's gone 7 innings or more.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Supporting Cast Carrying Sox

Overall, I think we've all been quite disappointed by how poorly the Sox have played this season. Even the most optimistic Sox fans now have a generally negative feeling for this club. But there are a few bright spots, a few pleasant surprises. And if not for them, the Sox would be in even worse shape.

Two of these guys are legitimate stars. Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz. Pedroia is hitting .319 with 18 RBI, 25 runs scored, 5 homers, and a .381 OBP. Ortiz has knocked in 25 runs, is hitting .348, has 7 homers, an OBP of .421 and an OPS of 1.026. He showed up to Spring Training in great shape, and his performance has reflected his desire to be a better player.

Apart from these two guys, the big names on the Sox have been disappointing. Adrian Gonzalez hasn't had many big hits. We'll give Youkilis and Ellsbury a pass due to injury. And then on the mound, Beckett might be the most hated man in Boston, Lester is nowhere near as elite as he claims he should be considered, and Buchholz has 4 wins but an ERA of 8.31.

It's been the supporting cast that's carried the load for the Sox.

Ryan Sweeney is hitting .333, with a .364 OBP. This guy was a 4th outfielder for the A's. And now he has the second best average on the Boston Red Sox. He's being paid $1.75 million.

Cody Ross has 23 RBI, second on the team behind Ortiz. His average isn't good (.254), but he's hitting for power with 6 homers (2nd on the team) and 7 doubles. He's only making $3 million.

Mike Aviles, who almost didn't make the starting lineup, is third on the team with 21 RBI. He's hit 5 homeruns. His previous career high was 10. And he's only 30 RBI shy of matching his career high of 51. He's making $1.2 million.

Sweeney, Ross, and Aviles are paid a total of $5.95 million. That's about 4% of the Sox' total payroll of $146.4 million. But they've knocked in 55 runs, or 32.4% of the Sox total RBI.

Will Middlebrooks has exploded in 2012. He's already hit 4 homers and knocked in 13 runs in only 10 games. He's making $480,000. Add his RBIs to Sweeney, Ross, and Aviles, and that's 40% of the team's runs knocked in, by only $6.43 million of payroll. That's less than a third of what Adrian Gonzalez gets paid.

Felix Doubront makes $484,000. The 5 pitchers that are currently in the Sox rotation make a total of $30.7 million. More than half ($17 million) of that goes to Beckett.

Doubront isn't a Cy Young Award candidate. But he's 3-1 with 4 Quality Starts, a 4.46 ERA, more innings than Beckett, higher K/9 than Beckett, and much more consistency than Beckett. Doubront has not missed a start. He is worth $484,000, and then some.

Beckett makes more than 35 times as much as Doubront. More than twice as much as Lester. The Sox don't pay Lester and Buchholz much compared to what our expectations of them were. But they've still been disappointing. None of them have an ERA below 4.

At the start of the year, I thought Ross was a joke, Sweeney would be a serviceable 4th outfielder, Aviles was a defensive liability, and Middlebrooks was in AAA Pawtucket. Now they're responsible for 40% of the team's RBIs. I thought Doubront might manage to be a not-so-bad 5th starter. But he has as many Quality Starts as any other starting pitcher.

I have two points I want to make with all this data. The first is that there are some players on this team that are worth rooting for. Sweeney, Ross, Doubront, Middlebrooks and Aviles are hungry, hard-working players. And I enjoy seeing them making the most of the opportunity they have found here. Also, Ortiz and Pedroia are busting their ass to produce for this team.

The second point I want to make is that the "stars" on this team, particularly in the rotation, aren't pulling their weight. Their weight is being pulled by the supporting cast. Watching this team play is like watching a movie with the star actors mailing in their scenes, and the supporting guys stealing the show. So maybe in the future, instead of big budget blockbuster action-films loaded with big names, the Sox should try to find more Paul Giamatti types. Quality players with talent and motivation.

I miss Mark Bellhorn, Bill Mueller, and Kevin Millar. Sweeney, Ross, and Aviles remind me of them. They're just overshadowed by clowns like Beckett and no-show stars like Gonzalez.

Sox on a Winning Streak

I thought about using a headline like "Sox on the Warpath," but racist article titles are the domain of CBS Sports and I wouldn't dream of trying to outdo them.

Can Felix Doubront and Clay Buchholz pitch every game for the Sox? The team is 5-2 when Doubront starts, 4-3 behind Buchholz (9-5 combined) and 6-14 whenever anyone else starts. .563 with Doubront or Buchholz, .300 with Beckett, Lester, and Bard.

Doubront had another very good start Saturday night. He's been a pleasant surprise this season. Imagine if he'd been struggling these last few weeks, how bad the Sox would be. Saturday night he went 6 innings, only allowed 3 hits, and earned victory #3.

Yesterday, the Sox simply annihilated Justin Masterson. He had no chance. I'm surprised he lasted 6 innings. The Sox swung and missed only 7 times against him. That's it. He wasn't fooling anyone. Nava was 2 for 2 with a pair of doubles. Middlebrooks hit his 4th homerun. Saltalamacchia exploded, going 3 for 4 with a homerun and 5 RBI.

Bard looked shaky. He only allowed 1 run (he walked it in), but in his 6 innings he gave up 6 hits and 4 walks. Way too many walks, especially with the Sox taking a big early add and consistently adding to it. Throw strikes. A few double play balls saved him, and the Sox building a big lead helped even more.

At least he had 0 balks.

Bard is still a project. I'm not sure how well he'll do in the rotation. As a starter in the minor leagues, he had problems with walks. He's walked 20 guys already, in only 37.2 innings. He's had three starts with 4 or more walks. It's a problem. The good news is if he doesn't work out in the rotation, he'll help out the bullpen. Maybe even close.

The Sox will try to make it four straight wins tonight against the Mariners. Lester opposes Jason Vargas, who is 4-2 on a 16-20 Seattle team. He has a 2.79 ERA, 5 Quality Starts, and his last outing was an 8 inning gem against Detroit. In other words, this is not Justin Masterson.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

So That's What a Sox Win Looks Like

The Sox needed this. They were facing an inferior pitcher on an inferior team and they really needed to stop losing games. Doubront did his job. The offense did the rest.

Will Middlebrooks has impressed me as a hitter. He hit two more homeruns. He knocked in 5, all with 2 outs. That's the type of clutch hitting the Sox have been missing.

The Sox got 16 hits and walked 7 times. They combined to hit 4 homers, 3 doubles, and a triple.

Doubront pitched well enough. Although I don't know why Valentine didn't pull him after 105 pitches. This is a converted reliever, a #5 starter. As much as the bullpen has struggled this season, I'll take a fresh Vicente Padilla over a 105+ pitch Felix Doubront in any situation. What are you going to realistically get from Doubront after 105 pitches?

Valentine's pitching decisions haven't made much sense to me. I don't think he's that good of a manager.

The Red Sox need to capitalize on this trip to Kansas City. Bard faces Danny Duffy tonight. Who is Danny Duffy? He's some dude that throws baseballs for the Royals. He's not that good.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Rain and Jarrod Parker Cool Sox Off

The Sox just can't seem to climb over .500. Jarrod Parker shut them down for 6.2 innings last night. Doubront had a subpar start. And despite a late rally, the Sox could only manage 3 runs. That's the trend with this Sox offense, either score 3 runs or less or 9+ runs. There is no middle ground.

Doubront has been a bit of a success story this season. This is the first time he's failed to go 5 innings. He was coming off back-to-back Quality Starts. He's been a serviceable #5 pitcher. This was his first setback and I'm interested in seeing how he responds to it.

The Athletics are a very poor hitting team. Only one of their starters has an average above .300, five are below .250, and three are below .200. Doubront didn't get lit up. The A's chipped away at him though, single by single. He did strike out 8. Against a better hitting team and on a warmer night, he might have gotten crushed.

We'll see how Doubront does in his next start. Which will be against the Royals on Monday.

Daniel Bard takes the mound for the Sox tonight. He faces Brandon McCarthy, who's pitched decently (4 Quality Starts) despite his 1-3 record. He does give up a lot of hits, though, so maybe the Sox can put up a few crooked numbers.

The A's haven't won a series in Fenway Park since 2006.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Sox Pull the Goalie and Score in Toronto

The Sox finally put that first win in the books thanks to a 3 run 9th inning last night in Toronto. And finally, the pain is being felt by another team.

Felix Doubront did his job. That's something that Beckett and Buchholz didn't do. Doubront's 5 innings of 2 run ball gave the Sox a chance to win. It was an undramatic start that allowed the Sox to end the game dramatically.

Dustin Pedroia is my favorite player on this team. He started the 9th inning rally with a leadoff double. He also hit a solo homerun in the 6th. It's not just about overall numbers for him, it's when he gets the hits. He's the guy you want at the plate when you need a big hit to start a rally.

This season looks like it might be a bipolar roller coaster. Tremendous highs followed by horrifying lows.

Daniel Bard makes his first MLB start tonight against Doug Drabek's son Kyle Drabek.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Red Sox Preview: Starting Pitchers

The Sox rotation is top-heavy. It's success will depend on how heavy that top can be. Teams have been successful in the past with just 2 or 3 great pitchers. 2 pitchers can start 60% of a 5 game series, and 57% of a 7 game series. 3 pitchers can do 80% and 86%.

So you only need 3 great pitchers. The question with for the Sox rotation in 2012 is: can 2 or 3 be great enough to make up for the lack of quality in the others?

Jon Lester is a dependable rock. He's never been an Ace, but he is reliable and very productive. You can count on Lester for an ERA between 3.20 and 3.50, 190 to 210 innings, 15 to 19 wins, and a WHIP between 1.20 and 1.27. In the last four years, he has not deviated outside of these ranges.

Maybe this is the year he steps up and becomes an Ace, but I think that is an unfair expectation. I think this is the year that he pitches like he's pitched for the last 4 years. He'll win 17 games, with an ERA around 3.40. A very fine, very respectable, quality year of work.

Josh Beckett is as unpredictable as Jon Lester is predictable. From game to game, year to year, Beckett is a gamble. He had a 2.89 ERA last year but only managed 13 wins in 31 starts. That was partly due to bad luck. 8 of his 11 no-decisions were Quality Starts.

The question with Beckett has never been "what's he capable of?" It's always been a question of consistency? Going into last September, he was 12-5 with a 2.54 ERA. He was 1-2 in September, with an ERA of 14.79. Which is the real Josh Beckett? They both are.

In 2012, I think Beckett will win at least 18 games. His ERA will be around 3.10. But he'll have some very bad starts, hopefully not at a time when his teammates need him to be his best. But as a whole, I actually am optimistic about his 2012 season.

Clay Buchholz's health could determine if the Red Sox contend for the AL East, or struggle for the 2nd AL Wild Card. He emerged as a frontline starter in 2010, winning 17 games with a 2.33 ERA. Last year he struggled in April then settled down in May and June, going 5-0 with a 2.59 ERA in those months. And if he didn't get hurt, who knows how the season would have gone.

Back injuries worry me. And Buchholz' physique is far from burly. There's no way to tell how well he'll recover from his injuries. If he doesn't, the Sox have a void in a rotation that already has a few voids after him.

If Buchholz does well, the Sox will be contenders. If Buchholz is just okay, the Sox can survive. If Buchholz struggles, they can't.

Why is Buchholz so important? Because the back-end of the Sox rotation is garbage.

Daniel Bard hasn't been a starter since 2007 when he was with Single-A Greenville and High-A Lancaster. It did not go well. In 22 starts (17 in Greenville, 5 in Lancaster) he managed to pitch 75 innings (3.4 per start). He had an ERA of 7.08 and a WHIP of 2.05.

That was a long time ago. He was 22 years old and just out of college. He was converted to a reliever in 2008 and did so well in that new role that it got him to the Majors by 2009. Walks killed him as a starter (he averaged more than one an inning) and he's dramatically improved in that area. Against MLB hitters, he walks 0.386 per inning.

That's one inning per appearance though, against hitters who hadn't yet seen his stuff. This Spring, he's struggled as a starter. 13 walks in 18.2 innings. And 17 hits.

As a reliever, he's been able to fool batters one time. As a starter, he's not fooling anyone and certainly not fooling them twice.

I don't expect him to finish the season as a member of the starting rotation.

Felix Doubrant is having an unbelievable Spring. Which means a lot today, but will mean nothing on Thursday. He's bounced around the lower levels of the Sox' minor league system, occasionally excelling and occasionally disappointing. I'm not surprised the Sox are giving him a chance to be a starter, I'll be shocked if he's still in the rotation once summer starts.

Alfredo Aceves has much more starting experience than Bard. 108 minor league starts and 9 in the Majors. Aceves could be a serviceable 5th starter. An innings eater. He won't be horrible like John Lackey was last year. He'll give 5 or 6 innings of solid work a night, with an ERA hovering above 4.50. And that's not bad for a 5th starter.

But if he is the 4th starter, then that's scary.

Right now he's in the bullpen, but I think will wind up in the rotation very soon.

It's a chilling thought, but the savior of the Red Sox rotation might be Daisuke Matsuzaka. He might not be able to return until the middle of summer. And his contribution will be even less predictable than usual thanks to Tommy John surgery.

But if Lester pitches like Lester, Beckett pitches up to (or even close to) his potential, and Buchholz manages to stay healthy, Daisuke is not a bad 4th starter.

Unfortunately for the Sox, Daisuke needs a strong bullpen in order to succeed. And we'll discuss how unlikely that will be in the next preview post.

Sox Set Rotation

Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, Doubront, Bard. That will be what the Red Sox rotation will look like to start the season. And maybe Jordan's Furniture should give away free stuff if that rotation looks the same in September. Or even May.

You'll notice the absence of Alfredo Aceves. Rumor has it that Andrew Bailey is injured and when asked about that injury, all Bobby Valentine could do was place a finger to his lips and pretend to gag. Which I guess is the same as Bill Belichick saying "we can't comment on that player because we don't fully know that player's status at this time."

Aceves could go to the bullpen while Bailey recovers, possibly assuming the closer's role.

This rotation is unique. A career #2 pitcher as the #1, a guy who's been an Ace in the past and has also sucked in the past as a #2, a recovering back injury in the #3 spot, a puzzling quadruple-A pitcher in the #4 spot, a converted reliever who struggled as a minor league starter as the #5 pitcher, and the closer's role filled by a guy who has performed decently as a starter.

All with Bobby Valentine using gestures and jokes to talk about the team.

Even if this rotation proves disastrous, it will at least be interesting and entertaining to see the disaster unfold. It's like a Michael Bay movie. Only Bay is more willing to spend money.