Do the 2014 Red Sox Hate Losing As Much As the 2013 Sox Did?

One of the most remarkable things about the 2013 Boston Red Sox season was how well the team did the game after a loss. The 2013 Sox hated to lose, and the sour taste of defeat seemed to motivate them to play better the next day. Over the 162 game schedule they only had 12 two-game losing streaks and a mere 5 three-game streaks. They never lost 4 in a row.

The 2013 Sox were 42-22 after a loss, a blistering .656 winning percentage. In all other games the Sox were 55-43 (.561). The Red Sox finished the season 32 games over .500, 20 of those 32 games were after a loss. The team's ability to rebound from a loss and play better the next day was the difference between a 90 win team competing for a wild card berth, and a 97 win team clinching the division.

In the playoffs they were 4-1 after a loss.

Now it's time to see how the 2014 Red Sox play after losing compared to the 2013 team. The Sox were swept by the Milwaukee Brewers this weekend. It's the first three-game losing streak of the season. If the Sox extend that streak to 4 against the Rangers Monday night, it will be the first four-game losing streak since the 8 consecutive losses at the end of the 2012 season.

Losing 4 in a row isn't the end of the world, certainly not the end of the season. However in baseball the difference between wild cards and divisions is exceedingly slim. If the Sox had gone 36-28 after losses last year instead of 42-22, they would have finished the season tied with Tampa Bay. Keeping losing streaks to 2 and 3 games is why the Red Sox won the division and then the World Series in 2013.

The 2013 Red Sox hated to lose. They played better when they had the foul taste of defeat in their mouth. They played hungrier, more tenaciously. That was part of the character that everyone praised them for demonstrating. Monday night against Texas we'll see if they show the same hunger to win and the same disgust toward losing.

John Lackey faces Tanner Scheppers, who got lit up for 7 runs in 4 innings in his first start against the Phillies.

Photo Credit:
Steven Senne/Associated Press

David Ortiz and Cody Ross Likely to Hit Open Market

Both David Ortiz and Cody Ross are going to test the waters of free agency. The exclusive negotiating period ends at midnight tonight (which is technically midnight tomorrow morning).

Ortiz wants a 2 year deal worth $25 million. Sources say (leaks from the Red Sox say) that the Sox are willing to give him a 2 year deal and aren't too far off on the money. But that's subjective isn't it? They might think $1 million a season isn't far off, but that's a decent chunk of cash.

There are rumors that the Texas Rangers are interested in Ortiz.

I don't think the Sox should get into a bidding war over a 37 year old DH who can't play the field and takes a long time to recover from injuries. $12.5 million isn't much for Ortiz in 2013, but it could be a burdensome amount in 2014.

I like Cody Ross, but let's keep his value in perspective. He's a career .262 hitter with a .324 OBP and .460 SLG. Last year he had decent power with 22 homeruns and 34 doubles. And that's about his ceiling. For the $3 million the Sox paid him in 2012, he was a bargain. But he's not worth a long-term, expensive deal.

Ross is smart to test free agency. There will be teams interested. He's 31 years old so this might be his last chance to sign a long-term, big money deal.

Beckett: The Worst of What Red Sox Do Worst

Whatever clubhouse problems Josh Beckett may or may not be a part of, the simple on the field facts are that he has undeniably and unequivocally sucked this season. Yesterday afternoon he gave the Sox 5 innings, 8 hits, 8 earned runs, 2 walks, 2 strikeouts, 3 homeruns. And that ERA of his is once again flirting with 5.00 (4.97 to be exact).

Among starting pitchers that have enough innings to qualify, he is 86th in ERA. Only 12 starters have worse ERAs.

How long does this guy continue to get the ball? How long until he has a roster spot? How many pitchers out there can give the Sox what Beckett gives them, only for less money, and with less drama?

This loss typifies the Sox season. One part of the team did very well (the offense), but their efforts were sabotaged by other parts of the team (Beckett and the bullpen).

Adrian Gonzalez hit 3 doubles, each time knocking in a run. Cody Ross hit a homerun and knocked in 2. Will Middlebrooks hit a 3 run homer. 9 runs should be enough to win.

But Beckett dug a huge hole for his teammates. And when they were finally clawing their way out of that hole, the bullpen dug it deeper. Clayton Mortensen didn't do his job. Then Alfredo Aceves allowed a sacrifice fly that gave the Rangers the lead. He nearly allowed a 2 run homer after that.

Aceves wasn't meant to be the closer on this team. But they let a pretty good one go. Then they signed one who has a history of injuries. And he got injured.

There are good pieces on this team. And there are bad ones. The bad pieces counter the good pieces and the result is a .500 team. It's like running a faucet on full hot and full cold. The result is a tepid stream of mediumness.

It's only August, but looking forward to the 2012-13 off-season I'd prefer that the Red Sox focus on removing the bad pieces that infest this team, as opposed to adding more good pieces. This team is sick. The top priority should be to get rid of the viruses, the bacteria, and all that ails this team. Then the good pieces can be healthy and thrive.

The Sox are in Cleveland for 4 games. The Indians aren't a good team, and the Sox need wins. This is an opportunity for them to win. Although we've seen them fail to take advantage of such opportunities.

Felix Doubront faces 8-11 Ubaldo Jimenez, who had a good June, but has struggled the rest of the 2012 season.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Red Sox Return to Reality

Jon Lester is 5-10. That's simply shocking. He's never lost 10 games in a season before. And he's managed to reach 15 wins every year since he became a full-time starter. He'll be hard pressed to reach that mark with only 51 games left on the schedule.

Lester wasn't bad. He was excellent the first time through the lineup. The Rangers eventually got to him. He was charged with 4 earned runs in 6.2 innings. But 1 of those runs was scored with Mark Melancon on the mound. He was good enough, but his teammates weren't.

Speaking of the bullpen, they've been very shabby lately. As a unit they started the season poorly, then settled into a groove of dependability, and now they're back to being a problem. Had Melancon done his job, and Junichi Tazawa done his job, this game could have been a 3-3 tie that went to extra innings.

Instead, the bullpen allowed the Rangers to build some insurance.

Meanwhile, the only scoring the Sox could manage came thanks to Will Middlebrooks and his pinch hit 3 run homer. I'm sure Bobby Valentine will take credit for that one.

Apart from that Ryan Dempster shut the Sox lineup down. Carl Crawford helped by getting picked off.

The Sox were mad at the umpiring, and maybe justifiably so. But the Sox take umpire-baiting to a new level. Jon Lester gets upset with about two calls per inning, and shows it with feminine snaps of the glove and passive aggressive behavior. And none of the Sox hitters are shy about lingering in the batter's box after striking out and expressing their opinion.

Maybe the umpires are sick of the Sox' whining. I know I am. Maybe the umps make unfavorable calls because the Red Sox irritate them.

I can't blame them.

Josh Beckett takes the mound for the Sox tonight. This is a chance for him to do what he's paid to do. He hasn't made a Quality Start since July 15th and the Sox could really use one.

Once again, Beckett is up against a good opposing pitcher. Matt Harrison is 13-6 with a 3.17 ERA. He's a lefty and Carl Crawford is the only active member of the Sox to have had much success against him.

The Sox will struggle to score off this guy, so Beckett needs to pitch as well as he's capable of pitching.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Red Sox Can't Beat Twins, Can Beat Rangers

If you could explain why the Red Sox can beat the Rangers with apparent ease, yet fall to the lowly Twins with regularity, you could probably win a Nobel Prize for psychology or a Field's Medal for mathematics. Or both.

Aaron Cook did a great job to limit the Rangers to 6 hits and a run in 7 innings. And the offense took advantage of Yu Darvish's frequently hanging pitches to put a few crooked numbers up on the board.

I don't think there's any magic or mystery to the Sox' inconsistency. Last night was a rare example of the offense, the starting pitching, and the bullpen all doing their job. That's happened maybe 10 times this season. No more. Most of the time one element of the team undermines the other. And the end result is a 50/50 chance in winning a game.

This team is one strong winning streak away from claiming a Wild Card spot. And one losing streak away from being out of the race.

It seems weird to me that in Boston the perceived value of a Wild Card has increased, while the actual value of it has significantly decreased.

A Wild Card used to get you the 4th seed in the playoffs. Now it grants you access to the one-and-done play-in game. And if you win that, then you're the 4th seed in the playoffs. So the value of a Wild Card has diminished significantly, but as a goal for Red Sox fans/owners, it has risen in prominence.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Terror in a Texas Ballpark

When Larry Luchhino or Ben Cherington need to make a major decision, they have to call Mike Napoli and get approval. Because he owns the Red Sox. He has a higher career slugging percentage against the Red Sox than any other player. Ever. He slugs .725 against the Sox. Nelson Cruz slugged .710, Babe Ruth slugged .683, Frank Robinson .652, and Lou Gehrig .644.

Last night he hit a 2 run homerun, part of a 9 run Ranger onslaught. And the Red Sox fell below .500 for the first time since June 16th.

Giving up 9 runs to the Rangers is bad, but it's not as depressing as the Red Sox offense was. They were 0 for 7 with runners in scoring position. Crawford didn't get on base, striking out twice. Pedroia got 3 hits, but Adrian Gonzalez got 0 hitting behind him. Ryan Sweeney, the 8th hitter in the lineup, had the best offensive chances. That's not how it's supposed to work.

I don't like Carl Crawford hitting 2nd. I know he's fast. And that's great. But how often will you try stealing bases when your best hitters are coming up? And if those hitters are power hitters, why risk stealing 2nd when you're still able to score from 1st on a double? And anyway, the #2 hitter's main purpose is to get on base. Which Crawford hasn't been great at in his career. His .333 career OBP doesn't justify his hitting in either of the top 2 spots of the lineup.

I'd prefer to see Crawford at the bottom of the order, hitting 7th, 8th, or 9th. Then he can use his speed to help the bottom of the order generate a few extra runs.

Hitting Crawford 2nd pushes everyone back a spot, which also reduces their at-bats. He also strikes out far too often for a top of the lineup kind of guy who doesn't hit for much power.

Dustin Pedroia was designed to be a #2 hitter. He's not an easy out, he's not going to clog the bases, he's a smart hitter, a smart baserunner, his career OBP is .368.

Right now my base lineup would be: Ellsbury, Pedroia, Gonzalez, Ross, Saltalamacchia, Middlebrooks, Crawford, Aviles, Nava/Sweeney.

Then when Ortiz returns: Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz, Gonzalez, Ross, Saltalamacchia, Middlebrooks, Crawford, Aviles. Now that's a lineup. Ellsbury and Pedroia get on base. You have multiple power guys in the middle who can knock runs in. Then some decent power after that to mop up, and a solid back of the lineup that can generate runs and give Ellsbury and Pedroia some RBI opportunities.

Having Crawford bat 2nd means the lineup relies too heavily on a player who never was great at getting on base. And this is also a guy who hasn't yet proven he is nearly as good as he was back in 2010.

This doesn't solve the Red Sox' pitching problems. Guys like Felix Doubront have carried the team while Beckett and Lester have been lying down on the job. And now Doubront is looking more like Felix Doubront.

Fixing this team's pitching is a simple plan, but it's not easy to execute. Josh Beckett and Jon Lester need to pitch better. Easy to say, but will it actually happen? Beckett might go on one of his runs of excellence. He might not. Flip a coin.

But Jon Lester is staring into the abyss right now. His next start could be a turning point in his career, one way or the other.

Beckett and Lester need to do their jobs. Felix Doubront is simply not capable of carrying the load that these guys are supposed to assume responsibility for. Doubront has done well, but he's no Josh Beckett or Jon Lester.

Thankfully, Clay Buchholz is on the mound tonight. The Sox could use another great start from him. He faces 21 year old Martin Perez. Perez has made two Major League starts this year, one was decent, one was horrible. However, he's also a lefty, and the Sox have no experience against him. So Buchholz might need to be brilliant in order for this losing streak to be stopped.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Sox Starting Second Half Tonight

A few weeks ago, I wrote a post about the Sox playing a 16 game stretch against below average opponents, and how it was a great opportunity for them to pad the win column. They went 9-7, which is good enough to win the AFC West, but it fell below my expectations.

The Sox failed to take advantage of weaker opposition. And now they're playing the good teams. They've already lost 3 of 4 to the Yankees.

They're playing the Rays this weekend. Tampa Bay is 2 games ahead of the Sox in the AL East (and Wild Card race). The Sox are 5-4 against the Rays this season.

Then Kevin Youkilis and the surging White Sox come to town for 4 games. They've won 9 of their last 12 and are in 1st place in the Central. They're good on the road, too, with a 23-16 record away from home. The Red Sox beat the White Sox 3 times in a 4 game series in Chicago. But that was back in April. These White Sox are different.

Toronto comes to town for three games. The Blue Jays and Red Sox have the same record. The Sox are 5-4 against the Jays and have won 4 of their last 6 meetings.

Then it's three games in Arlington, Texas. In July. Against the AL West leading Rangers. Cue the weather excuse. The 52-34 Rangers have the 2nd best record in baseball, best run differential in the Majors, and the best home record in the AL.

The Sox then play a weekend series in New York. The Yankees have taken 5 of 6 from the Red Sox this season.

Then it's 3 games against the Wild Card contending Detroit Tigers. The Sox were swept by Detroit in April. Then won 3 of 4 against them in May. The Tigers were hot entering the All-Star Break, but by the time this series is played (end of July), that will likely change.

So the next 19 games for the Sox play will be against opponents who are .500 or better. 10 games will be against division leaders.

The weighted average record of these opponents is 47-38, or .552.

The Sox squandered an opportunity against below .500 teams to accumulate wins. So now they must win against teams that are above .500. The Yankees and Rangers are both above .600.

It's possible for the Sox to survive this stretch, even do well. They've been good against Tampa Bay, Toronto, and Detroit. And if the lineup gets hot, they can go on a run against anyone.

But they must at least tread water. Because of their failure to beat the Athletics and Mariners, now they have to do well against the White Sox, Yankees, and Rangers. They've put themselves in a tough spot.

Sox Finding New Ways to Lose Every Night

One day it's a lousy starting pitching performance. The next it's an impotent offense. Then the next, the bullpen blows a save. The Sox have lost games in just about every possible way this season.

It really feels like September. Not just because of the brisk weather last night, but because the Sox are losing in new and interesting ways each night.You never know who you'll see fail when you come to the ballpark.

Beckett did well last night. Good. Maybe very good. Not great, but good enough. The offense was quiet, apart from a Youkilis homerun. But Franklin Morales sabotaged the Sox' chances of winning the game with his 3 run outing.

There's a new villain every night. A new player to display a shamed look on his face. But the image of Sox players limply hanging on the dugout rails is the same sorry sight from last September.

It's getting annoying.

Fenway Park turns 100 on Friday, and the Sox welcome the Yankees. New York is 6-6, so these are two struggling teams trying to remember how to win. Buchholz faces 2-0 Ivan Nova.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

A Texas Sized Smackdown

Buy some Dramamine and don't eat an hour before game time because this Sox season is shaping up to be a motion sickness inducing roller coaster ride of dizzying highs and soul crushing lows.

After two very good starts, Jon Lester dropped an utter turd on the mound last night, only getting 6 men out. He threw 80 pitches in his 2+ innings of work, only 46 of which were strikes. He allowed 8 hits and walked 4. It was ugly.

Even uglier was Mark Melancon's outing. 6 batters faced. 2 of them walked, 4 of them got hits, 3 of them hit homeruns. He's allowed 5 homeruns in 2 innings of work. His ERA is now 49.50.

I fear that the rest of the season will be much like the first 11 games. The Sox will look invincible at times. Then at other times they'll look like a AAA team that's been drinking heavily.

But hey, Texas is good. Really, really good. I love hearing people say "there's no guarantee the Wild Card comes from the AL East this year." No shit. The Rangers have pitching. And as we saw last night, some very scary hitting.

Josh Beckett faces Derek Holland tonight. It'll be interesting to see which Josh Beckett shows up.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

How to Catch a Foul Ball

Why not catch a foul-ball like a badass without missing a beat in a cell phone conversation.

You can actually read his lips as he says "I just caught a foul ball."

DON'T WEEP ABOUT THE SWEEP

All the anticipation for Opening Day and then the Rangers outscore the Sox 26-11 in three games. Don't panic yet, though. The Sox can still win those magical 100 games, if that's what you care about. They'd just have to go 100-59 in the remaining 159 games. And that's certainly possible.

Had the Sox done well this weekend, I would have been my wet blanket self, and pleaded for everyone to settle down, as it's only April. Well it is only April, and so therefore I'm not too worried about what we saw in Texas.

Jon Lester is a perennial slow starter. From 2008 to 2010, he went 3-5 in April, with a 4.58 ERA. So we shouldn't worry about his struggles on Friday.

Carl Crawford is going to improve. He broke out a bit on Sunday, after going hitless in the first two games, and being demoted in the lineup.

Clay Buchholz allowed 4 runs off 4 homers. Apart from those occasional mistakes he was spot on. It's not as if he was allowing 4 or 5 hits in an inning, and being ripped apart by the Rangers' batters. He made some big mistakes, but not many, and give Texas some credit for capitalizing.

And there were some positives this weekend. Adrian Gonzalez has settled right in. 5 for 9 over the weekend with a double and 3 RBI. I feel a burst of homeruns coming from him.

And there doesn't seem to be the annual Ortiz slump in April. Two homeruns already. And when he pulled the ball, he hit it hard enough to get it through the shifted infield. That's a very good sign.

Now to the bad news. John Lackey looked awful the second time through the lineup. Everyone's hoping he improves on his 2010 performance, but none of us (my pessimistic self included) considered that he might get worse.

And the bullpen needs to be "sorted out," to put it mildly. I don't put much stock in Papelbon's struggles on Sunday, as it was a non-save situation after he'd been sitting all weekend. I don't think he even warmed up once. The other pieces to the bullpen puzzle will take some time and some headaches to fall in place.

One thing I hope you all learned this weekend is how important pitching is. The starting pitcher is literally the ONLY player who can singlehandedly lose a game for his team. They're also capable of doing the most to help his team win. Lackey lost Saturday's game, pretty much on his own. And on Sunday, Matt Harrison's 7 innings did more to help Texas win than any of their homerun hitters.

So buck up, there are 159 games left. I mean, Baltimore's in first place. It's not yet time to take things so seriously.

Red Sox at Cleveland for three, starting on Tuesday.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo