Oh and Daniel Bard's Struggles Continue

With the death of Johnny Pesky, and the off-field drama surrounding the Red Sox, we all forgot about Daniel Bard. He's still toiling in AAA, still trying to figure out how to pitch again.

It's not going well. On Tuesday he had an atrocious outing. He faced 5 batters, and walked 4 of them. He threw 27 pitches, only 10 were strikes. He walked the last 2 batters he faced on 8 straight pitches.

August has been bad for Bard. In 4.2 innings this month, he's walked 10 and allowed 8 earned runs. He had shown signs of improvement in July, but now is back to struggling just to throw strikes.

The problem is mechanical. The problem is mental. And those two problems are likely interrelated. He has no confidence.

It's time to shut him down. His issues won't be solved on the mound in 2012. Maybe send him to Florida to pitch simulated games. Maybe give him a few months off and let him play winter ball in Mexico. Let him get away from this problem and just be Daniel Bard. Not Daniel Bard: struggling pitcher.

His career might not be over, but his 2012 season should be.

And want to get pissed off? Bard and Josh Beckett are tied with the same number of wins this season. 5 wins.

Daniel Bard: To Be or Not to Be a Reliever

I can't help myself... Compared to the tempest before and after the Kevin Youkilis trade, any discussion about Daniel Bard seems to be much ado about nothing. But it's actually been an interesting comedy of errors. It's been "decided" that Bard will return to his reliever role. I suppose all's well that ends well.

But the story doesn't end there with that paragraph full of Shakespeare references. He's still struggling just to pitch. And he's still struggling to throw strikes.

In 7 appearances for AAA Pawtucket, Bard has a 6.30 ERA. He's walked 5 in 10 innings and allowed 10 hits. He recently blew back-to-back save opportunities for the PawSox. And on Sunday, after retiring 5 batters with ease, he walked 3 in a row and was removed from the game.

His velocity isn't quite back where it was as a reliever. But while he's struggling to find his fastness, he's also trying to regain control. Trying to both throw harder and with more precision doesn't sound like two goals that naturally go together.

The decision to make Bard a reliever was essentially made once he was sent down to Pawtucket, it was just never announced. He had to pitch extremely well to regain his starting role. He didn't.

In my post about Youkilis being traded I mentioned the communication struggles of the confused Red Sox chain-of-command. Bard got a voicemail from Bobby Valentine last week about the decision to make him a reliever. Valentine was under the impression that GM Ben Cherington had already spoken to him. He hadn't. And Bard had decided a few days earlier that he intended to be a reliever.

So the Red Sox made a decision on Bard, but never said "alright, Ben, you tell him." Or "Bobby, he'll want to hear this from you."

Is there a functioning chain of command running the Red Sox? Are roles clearly defined?

And about Bard, I can't blame the Sox for trying to make him a starter. BUT, their motivation to do so was flawed.

The Sox didn't want to acquire another starting pitcher. So they turned to Bard to be a starter. In the past there was never an urge to convert Papelbon, for instance, because the Sox were all set for SPs. But instead of signing a mid-level Edwin Jackson type of guy, the Red Sox said "Bard could start." Their motivation was based on what they thought he COULD do, not what he SHOULD do.

Now, let's just hope he's able to return to form, and return to Boston.

Daisuke Starting Saturday in Boston, Bard Starting Friday in Pawtucket

Daisuke Matsuzaka will be back in Boston just about a year after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He last pitched for the Red Sox in May of 2011. He's made six rehab starts, totaling 37 innings. He had a 3.65 ERA, 31 hits, 9 walks, and 30 strikeouts. He also had high pitch counts. His final rehab outing lasted 2 innings (it had been scheduled for 3) on Tuesday. He threw 40 pitches.

On Saturday, he'll face 7-2 Gio Gonzalez and the Washington Nationals. Even though the Nats are in 1st place, their offense isn't very good. 26th in runs scored. And thankfully for Daisuke, 22nd in OBP, and 14th in walks.

With most pitchers, some things to watch in their first start back are throwing strikes, working with rhythm, being efficient, keeping people off the bases, is their fastball fast and their curveball curving. Of course, Daisuke is not most pitchers. He can have a good start and walk 8 batters.

What should we expect from Daisuke? Frankly (and not surprisingly), my expectations are low. This is a guy who was brilliant for two years (33-15, 3.72 ERA his first two seasons), then ugly for two (16-15, 5.03 ERA). Any other starting pitcher developed normally in the minors would have been dismissed as a flash-in-the-pan that was figured out by MLB hitters, and couldn't cut it in the Majors. But since Daisuke did so well in the quadruple-A equivalent Japanese League, he still is expected to do well over here.

Negativity aside, there is at least potential for him to be good. We've seen it. And if he's not good, he can at least be serviceable, pitching 5 innings (with a 120 pitch count), and giving the Sox a chance to win. That's more than can be said for Daniel Bard, who Daisuke will replace in the rotation.

Bard will be making a start in AAA Pawtucket on Friday, as the PawSox face the Indianapolis Indians (who are the Pirates' AAA affiliate). Although it is technically a start, he will not be working as a traditional starter. His appearances will be short. The Red Sox claim that this is so he can focus on getting himself "back to being an elite pitcher." That's what Ben Cherington said. This minor league stint is about Bard getting back "on track."

In other words, Bard will be pitching short outings until he's shown the quality we've seen from him in the past. If he does well and Matsuzaka struggles, Bard can return to the rotation and give starting another go. If Matsuzaka settles in, then Bard can return as a reliever.

The Sox are being very diplomatic with how they're discussing Bard. They don't want to crush his confidence. They need Bard to fix his problems before he can return as a reliever or a starter. Matsuzaka gives them an easy way to be kind to Bard and say "We have 5 starters already, but we need your quality in the pen." It's sort of like a girl saying "let's just be friends." You don't feel quite so bad if she's already got a boyfriend.

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Bard to Minors, What Should the Sox Do With Him?

The Sox sent Daniel Bard to AAA Pawtucket yesterday, activating Darnell McDonald off the DL. In Bard's last start, he only managed to go 1.2 innings, allowing 5 runs off 6 walks and a homerun. In 55 innings, he's walked 37, struck out 34, and has an ERA of 5.24 and a WHIP of 1.62. As a reliever last year, he had a 3.33 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. He only walked 24 in 73 innings.

It's not working for him as a starter. Everyone knows it. Even him. He wants to work out his problems up here in Boston. The Sox want him to work them out in Pawtucket. Frankly, the Sox can't afford his struggles anymore. It's June, the Sox are one game over .500, they're trying to go on a run to separate themselves from the tightly packed AL East. Now's not the time for Bard to work out his problems in games that count in the standings.

I think the Sox know that the starting experiment is over. They won't come out and say it publicly. But their plan for Bard in Pawtucket involves him throwing some 2 inning stints. Doesn't that sound like they'll be converting him to a reliever?

If they really wanted him to continue to start, they might have sent him down to Fort Myers to pitch some simulated games, to focus entirely on his mechanics and not worry about getting hitters out.

Meanwhile, Bard will likely be replaced in the rotation by Matsuzaka. And if Matsuzaka pitches well, and if Buchholz continues to pitch well, the Sox can tell Bard that there's no more room in the rotation, so he might as well go to the pen. If Matsuzaka falters, or another starter gets hurt, the Sox can continue to tinker with Bard.

The Sox are saying that Bard is dropping his arm slot, and that's affecting his performance. Sounds reasonable. I'm not a pitching coach. All I know is that his fastball is slower, he's not pitching to contact, and he only has 2 of his 3 pitches working on any given night. If he can solve those problems, he can start. But maybe those problems are always going to be unsolvable for Bard. Some pitchers just aren't meant to be starters. The Sox tried to make him one when he was first drafted. It didn't work. Too many walks. It's not working now, either.

The Sox bullpen isn't as good as people think it is. There is room for Bard out there. In 2 weeks, the Sox will have an idea what Matsuzaka can give them. They'll also know which relievers they want to keep and which one they're willing to let go. Bard can work on his mechanics, and maybe he'll figure it all out and return to the rotation in glory. More likely, he'll return to the bullpen where he's thrived in the past.

Bard Needs to Go to the Bullpen, But the Red Sox Have Been Good Otherwise

The experiment of Bard in the rotation has proven unsuccessful. He simply isn't a starter. And the culprit is the same thing that prevented him from being a starter when he was first drafted: bases on balls.

In 55 innings, he's walked 37 batters. He's struck out 34. Yesterday he threw 55 pitches. 24 were strikes. A good pitcher will throw twice as many strikes as balls (or better). But not Bard. When he's a starter, the walks pile up. And because he isn't throwing many strikes, so does the pitch count. It's the same problem that plagued him in 2007 in A ball. He's also hit 6 batters this year.

When Daisuke is ready to return, Bard needs to go to the bullpen. It simply is not working out for him in the rotation. At best, he's a #5 pitcher, giving you 180 mediocre innings. I'd rather have 80 quality innings from him out of the pen.

Apart from Bard's struggles, the Sox have been thriving. They've only lost 1 of their last 7 series. They're 16-7 since David Ortiz called a players only meeting after Beckett was shelled by the Indians on May 10th. They're still last in the AL East, but they're only 1.5 games out of the second Wild Card spot.

On Saturday, Felix Doubront had yet another Quality Start. He's now 6-2 and deservedly so. You really can't ask more from a 4/5 pitcher than that. Not to mention his ERA is 3.75.

And Clay Buchholz seems to have settled down. He went 8 innings Friday night, only allowing 2 runs. He struck out 7. That's two straight Quality Starts for Buchholz. He only has three on the season. He has a 2.40 ERA in his last two starts. 15 innings, 4 earned runs, not bad at all.

The Sox need to keep this momentum going. They can take advantage of a Baltimore team that's been struggling lately. They have today off. Then Lester faces 6-2 Jason Hammel on Tuesday.

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Red Sox Break The .500 Barrier

Normally, I would say that the Red Sox surpassing the .500 mark for the first time in a season after Memorial Day is hardly worth celebrating. However, I really like how the Sox did it.

They weren't supposed to do it last night. All the explanations and excuses were lined up in advance. Verlander was on the mound for Detroit. The Sox' #5 starter Bard was facing him. It seemed a foregone conclusion that the Sox would lose. But they didn't.

If you're going to wait until May 29th to go over .500, you'd better make it special. Or at least interesting. And the Sox did that. They got to Verlander, one of the top pitchers in the game. Bard had a very Bardlike game, but Valentine was able to retrieve him before any major damage was done. The bullpen did a solid job finishing the game. And Aceves didn't allow a homerun.

The Sox got 10 hits off Verlander, including 3 doubles. They also got 4 hits with runners in scoring position. Verlander's ERA increased 0.40 thanks to the 5 runs he allowed in 6 innings last night. It increased 18.6% from 2.15 to 2.55. If that happened to Beckett's ERA, it'd go up 0.77 points.

Daniel Nava's 3 run double in the 4th was the biggest hit of the season. There were 2 outs, the bases loaded, a full count, and the game would turn on the next pitch. Verlander would either escape the jam and the Tigers would eventually score on Bard and have a good chance to win. Or, Nava would get a hit, give Bard a cushion, and put the Sox in the driver's seat.

After that, the Sox didn't mess up and lose control of the game. The bullpen did its job. Ortiz had an RBI double in the 5th and a solo homerun in the 7th to pad the lead. Detroit's not a very good offensive team (9th in the AL in runs scored), and the Sox took advantage of that.

Ortiz has returned to his role as the heart of the Red Sox lineup. He leads the team in the following categories: runs, doubles, homeruns, total bases, walks, batting average, OBP, SLG, OPS.

Now that this hurdle has been overcome, the next step is to keep up some of these good habits we've seen lately. We've seen very few bad starts from the pitchers, the bullpen has stabilized, the offense is getting clutch hits in game-turning situations. That's a winning formula. It starts with the starting pitching, and the rest falls into place.

The Orioles, Rays, and Yankees all lost last night. The Sox are only 3.5 games out in the division, and 1.5 out of the 2nd Wild Card. The opportunity is there.

Jon Lester pitches for the Sox tonight. Drew Smyly is on the mound for Detroit. Smyly was good in April. He's been bad in May. He has a 6.75 ERA in his last 3 starts.

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Unlikely Sluggers Blast Sox Past Orioles

The Sox are 22-22 and just took 2 of 3 from the Orioles. Why am I so happy at this? Because I like the way the Sox won these games. And I prefer consistently winning 2 of 3 as opposed to stretches of 5 straight wins then 5 straight losses.

I'm not as optimistic about Daniel Bard. He's looking more and more like Daisuke Matsuzaka. He's not throwing enough strikes (49 strikes, 41 balls today), he's walking batters (4 more today, he's now walked more batters than he's struck out), his pitch count is getting high early, and he never seems to have the same pitches working for him from start to start.

It's not been a major problem. So far. He's not getting crushed. He's not wild. He got two very timely double-plays today that helped him avoid disaster. And with runners in scoring position, he held the O's at bay.

It doesn't seem like a long-term successful way to pitch, though. This is his fourth start that he's failed to go 6 innings. He's tied with Justin Masterson for the 6th most walks in all of baseball.

Bard only allowed 2 earned runs. The homerun he surrendered today was only the 3rd he's given up all season. That's why the walks haven't been deadly for him. And there's no alternative starting pitcher to take his spot. So for now, Bard is will remain the rotation. He hasn't been a significant problem. Yet.

The offense was provided by some surprise sluggers. Nava, Shoppach, and Podsednik each hit homeruns. Adrian Gonzalez better watch his back because Nava and Shoppach are only 1 homerun behind him. They each have 2. Nava has 2 homers in his last 26 at-bats, and this is after going 171 ABs without a homerun. Podsednik hadn't hit a homerun since September 2010.

All season long, the Sox have been getting contributions from unexpected sources. Doubront has been the most reliable starter in the rotation. Cody Ross, Ryan Sweeney, Will Middlebrooks, Daniel Nava, Mike Aviles. Hell, Kelly Shoppach is hitting .281. These are the Bill Mueller, Mark Bellhorn kind of guys that added to the star power of the 2004 Red Sox. The glue that held the big pieces together.

Now we just need the star pitchers to consistently pitch like stars, the high-priced free agent slugger to earn his pay, and the bullpen to figure itself out.

Sox have an off-day, then host the Rays for 3 over the weekend. It's a great opportunity to claw back into the AL East race. The Sox have done well against Tampa Bay this season. Lester faces Alex Cobb, a 24 year old who was born in Boston and has made 10 Major League starts, 7 of which were Quality Starts. That makes me feel uneasy.

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Sox Silenced

The Sox managed only 2 hits and apart from a Youkilis homerun, Brian Matusz utterly silenced the Sox' lineup. Aviles, Pedroia, and Ortiz went 0 for 12. It's unfair to single them out, though, because apart from Youkilis' homer and an Adrian Gonzalez single, the entire lineup was quieted.

Youkilis started at first. Gonzalez was in the outfield. Cody Ross' injury was convenient for Youkilis and/or Middlebrooks as it allowed them both to stay in the lineup. Gonzalez is not a long-term solution in the outfield, but the Sox don't have much of a choice.

Doubront had another good start. It went to waste last night, but it was still very encouraging. He struck out 9, which is just as many as Matusz. 6 innings, only 2 runs. Without him, the Sox would be completely screwed. Especially with how Bard and Buchholz have struggled. Not to mention Matsuzaka's health concerns. Doubront has anchored the bottom of the rotation.

The Sox got shut down by a good lefty. It happens. The problem with the Sox is they allow it to happen too often.

So today is a good chance to rebound. Daniel Bard faces Jake Arrieta. This is a great opportunity for Bard to step up and win a game when the Sox could really use a win to keep their momentum going. Arrieta's overall numbers aren't dazzling, but he's had the occasional brilliant start. His last one was 7 innings and 1 run. And on May 2nd he pitched 8 shutout innings against the Yankees. There were 10 innings and 13 runs between those starts, though. He's been inconsistent.

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Sox Struggle in Philadelphia

Here comes Interleague Play. Which gives the Red Sox an excuse for losing in National League parks.

Daniel Bard isn't working out as a starter. He's not horrible. He's obviously a talented pitcher. But he's not throwing enough strikes. 5 more walks last night. He also hit 2 batters. He's walked 25 batters on the season, in 42.2 innings. He's hit 4 batters. His strikeout to walk ratio is close to even (26 strikeouts, 25 walks).

These are similar to the problems he had in the minors when he was a starter. In 2007, in 22 minor league starts and 75 innings, he walked 78 batters. He also threw 27 wild pitches. He's not as wild now, but he's still struggling to throw strikes, and hitters are being very patient with him.

When and if another starter comes off the DL, I think it would be best for Bard to go to the bullpen. When he only has to go one inning, his fastball is faster and he doesn't save any of his stuff for the second time through the lineup. He throws strikes.

The question isn't do you want 200 innings from Bard or 75 innings. It's do you want 200 slightly below average innings or 75 very good innings.

On the bright side, Mike Aviles had a good night. So did Cody Ross. Aviles was 2 for 4 with a double and a homerun. Ross was 2 for 3 with a homerun. Adrian Gonzalez also hit a homerun. Unfortunately, they were all solo homeruns.

The Phillies have a reliever named Antonio Bastardo, and I find that hilarious. Sounds like the name of a mustachioed villain in a Jack Black movie.

Jonathan Papelbon got the save, his 12th of the season. He hasn't blown any. Must be nice to able to acquire talent like that.

Jon Lester faces Joe Blanton tonight. Lester's coming off his best start of the season, a complete-game 1 run outing against Seattle. Blanton is coming off a 7 inning, 1 run outing against Houston.

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Sox on a Winning Streak

I thought about using a headline like "Sox on the Warpath," but racist article titles are the domain of CBS Sports and I wouldn't dream of trying to outdo them.

Can Felix Doubront and Clay Buchholz pitch every game for the Sox? The team is 5-2 when Doubront starts, 4-3 behind Buchholz (9-5 combined) and 6-14 whenever anyone else starts. .563 with Doubront or Buchholz, .300 with Beckett, Lester, and Bard.

Doubront had another very good start Saturday night. He's been a pleasant surprise this season. Imagine if he'd been struggling these last few weeks, how bad the Sox would be. Saturday night he went 6 innings, only allowed 3 hits, and earned victory #3.

Yesterday, the Sox simply annihilated Justin Masterson. He had no chance. I'm surprised he lasted 6 innings. The Sox swung and missed only 7 times against him. That's it. He wasn't fooling anyone. Nava was 2 for 2 with a pair of doubles. Middlebrooks hit his 4th homerun. Saltalamacchia exploded, going 3 for 4 with a homerun and 5 RBI.

Bard looked shaky. He only allowed 1 run (he walked it in), but in his 6 innings he gave up 6 hits and 4 walks. Way too many walks, especially with the Sox taking a big early add and consistently adding to it. Throw strikes. A few double play balls saved him, and the Sox building a big lead helped even more.

At least he had 0 balks.

Bard is still a project. I'm not sure how well he'll do in the rotation. As a starter in the minor leagues, he had problems with walks. He's walked 20 guys already, in only 37.2 innings. He's had three starts with 4 or more walks. It's a problem. The good news is if he doesn't work out in the rotation, he'll help out the bullpen. Maybe even close.

The Sox will try to make it four straight wins tonight against the Mariners. Lester opposes Jason Vargas, who is 4-2 on a 16-20 Seattle team. He has a 2.79 ERA, 5 Quality Starts, and his last outing was an 8 inning gem against Detroit. In other words, this is not Justin Masterson.

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Baserunners Bother Balking Bard, and the Bullpen Blows

For the most part, Daniel Bard has adjusted well to his new role as a starting pitcher. One thing he seems to be struggling with is ignoring baserunners. As a reliever, he didn't worry about them. He'd just focus on the batter, get the 3 outs he needed to get, and essentially ignore any baserunners he inherited or allowed.

Last night he became preoccupied with baserunners in the 2nd inning. And in that one inning he threw a wild pitch, balked twice, and surrendered 3 runs. And it could have been much worse.

He was able to get over it and move on. Which is one very promising thing I've noticed in his starts.

He kept his pitch count low, but started to struggle in the 7th. He got out of a jam thanks to some bunts, but walked two to lead off the 8th. And with no Daniel Bard in the bullpen, Valentine was forced to bring in Albers. Who gave up a 3 run homer.

Right now, especially with Cook and Matsuzaka on the DL and Buchholz struggling, the Sox need Bard in the rotation. But if these guys get healthy, I think you have to consider moving Bard back to the pen. While you get more innings from him in the rotation, what's the point of getting 7 good innings from him or any starter if the bullpen can't consistently give you 2 good innings to close the game.

Anyway, Will Middlebrooks left the game with tightness in his hamstring. Hopefully that's just a precautionary thing. He was 1 for 1 with a double, and is the first player since Enos Slaughter to start off his career with extra-base hits in each of his first 5 games.

Jon Lester faces Bruce Chen tonight. Chen is 0-4, with a few good starts and a few horrible starts.

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Bard Relieves Sox Fans

Daniel Bard wants to be a starter. And I can't blame him. But by doing such a good job as a reliever last night, he might have eliminated himself from the rotation.

He inherited a tough situation: a runner on third with 1 out in a 5-5 game. And he worked out of it. Cody Ross homered in the next half inning, and Bard got the win.

I was a little puzzled with Valentine's decision to take Bard out and put Aceves in to pitch the 9th. I know Aceves is the temporary closer, but Bard only threw 11 pitches in the 8th (4 were part of an intentional walk), and he's clearly the best option to pitch the 9th. Taking Bard out and putting Aceves in was tempting fate.

With the Sox struggling, Cody Ross has been somewhat overlooked. He hit homeruns number 4 and 5 of the year. And knocked in 3 runs, giving him a total of 13 RBI. He leads the Sox in both categories. He's also hitting .283. I don't know if this production will last, but the Sox desperately need it at the moment.

Jon Lester looked off, especially going through the Twins' lineup a second time. He allowed 5 runs in 7 innings. And if not for the 3 double plays the Twins grounded into, things might have gotten really messy. I'm not worried, though. He had bad Aprils in 2009 and 2010. And a bad May last year. Give him a few starts to warm up and he'll revert to his usual self.

The Sox needed the win. But there's still lots to work on. Morales looks awful. Aceves is unnerving. The Sox still make inexcusable little mistakes like screwing up a relay from right-field.

Those problems seem more manageable after a win, though.

Beckett faces Nick Blackburn tonight, who struggled in his first start, did well in his second, but hasn't pitched since the 14th.

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Sox' Bats Cool Off in Monday's Heat

This team seems to either score 0 to 3 runs, or 10+ runs. It's feast or famine, deluge or drought. And yesterday was definitely drought.

There's no shame in being shut down by James Shields. The Sox managed only 4 hits, all of them singles. With the way Shields was dealing there was no way the Sox would win this game, unless it was 0-0 and went deep into extra innings and they managed to beat Tampa's bullpen.

Bard was the hard luck loser. He did well. And could have been spared walking in the winning run had Valentine pulled him. I think the 4 pitch walk to Pena just before was a red flag that should have caught Bobby V's attention. He was probably too busy trying to remove his foot from his mouth.

Or maybe he was wrapping pita bread around his foot and calling it a Toe Wrap. He is, after all, very inventive.

This was a disappointing loss, but not an overly painful one. Shields vs. Bard is a significant mismatch. And Bard did very well for himself. Which is promising.

The Sox welcome Texas to town tonight. The Rangers are 8-2. Jon Lester faces Colby Lewis tonight. Lewis has only allowed 2 runs in his 2 starts.

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Bard Not Bad, But Sox Sucking Continues

Going back to September 1st of last year, the Red Sox are 8-24. That's .250 baseball. So I'm not just "panicking" over a slow start. I'm concerned about what seems to be a continuation of a pattern dating back to last year. The calendar is different, but the games look eerily similar.

On the bright side, Daniel Bard was better than his 5 inning, 5 earned run line score suggests. The first run he allowed came in the 1st, when the Jays had a few well-placed hits and squeezed out a run. The last two runs charged to Bard occurred with Justin Thomas on the mound.

Bard looked promising. There's room for improvement, but he did well. He didn't let a few bad breaks affect him, he mixed up his pitches as the game progressed, he threw strikes (65 strikes, 31 balls, slightly better than the 2:1 ratio you want to see), he didn't walk anyone until the 6th inning, he got better as the game progressed.

His slider was devastating. He worked the changeup in later in the game, and that went well. But the Jays repeatedly made contact on his fastball. Mostly for line drives. He allowed 8 hits. 7 of them were singles.

I'm not yet sold on Bard as a starter. But I am still listening to the sales pitch.

The rest of this team I am definitely not sold on. More bad bullpen work from Thomas and then Michael Bowden. The Sox got plenty of baserunners, but couldn't manage that big hit to break things open. They were 2 for 12 with runners in scoring position. Both those hits came in the 9th with 2 outs and the Sox trailing by 6 runs.

Youkilis finally got 2 hits. If he and Ellsbury can get a little hotter, the offense should find more consistency.

But pitching still worries me. The bullpen is just a mess. And with starters like Doubront and Bard going 5 or 6 innings, that bullpen is even more exposed.

Maybe Lester can turn things around this afternoon. He faces Ricky Romero at 12:37.

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Red Sox Making April Seem Like September

Vicente Padilla had the second best pitching performance for the Sox in Detroit. Need I say more?

No. But I will anyway.

A pair of horrible starts from Beckett and Buchholz, combined with inconsistent hitting, and one unbelievably shitty bullpen resulted in a Detroit Tigers sweep. Just like in September, the Sox are finding different ways to lose.

Alfredo Aceves gave up the winning hit in Thursday's loss. Yesterday he blew a 3 run lead. Mark Melancon also blew a save yesterday, and now he's 0-2. It's April 9th and the Sox have a reliever that's 0-2. That's sadly impressive.

One bright spot was Padilla's 4 scoreless innings. He might earn a chance to be in the rotation if he keeps up that good work.

I'm hearing some clamoring for Daniel Bard to be installed as closer. Maybe that will eventually happen, but right now the Sox need starting pitching. Because while the bullpen ultimately blew yesterday's game, a good start from Buchholz would have allowed the Sox to cruise to a blowout victory. Bullpens lose games. Starting pitchers win them.

And you know who should be the closer...

Jonathan Papelbon.

People in Boston were far too complacent and docile when the Sox didn't re-sign the best closer they've had in a long time. Everyone who wants Bard to close should also get angry at the Sox for not retaining Papelbon.

The Sox go up to Toronto to face the 2-1 Jays. Doubront faces 21 year old Henderson Alvarez.

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Red Sox Preview: Bullpen

The Red Sox bullpen was decent last year. They didn't blow many saves. They had the 13th best bullpen ERA in the Majors, with the best WHIP. Then the Sox decided to let their best reliever go to Philadelphia, and convert their second best to a starter, with their third best likely to find his way into the rotation as well.

They did go out and acquire a handful of arms to try to backfill the voids left by Papelbon, Bard, and (eventually) Aceves. They got a closer who has never saved more than 26 games a season. Another guy who saved 20 last year and won 8 games as a reliever.

Andrew Bailey is from Voorhees, NJ. That doesn't bug anyone? The Sox once had Michael Myers on their roster, now they have a guy from Voorhees? And their home opener is on Friday the 13th. Why not rename Yawkey Way Elm Street?

Anyway, I don't trust the closers that Oakland produces. It's a very pitcher friendly ballpark. Bailey's numbers look pretty good. 75 career saves, only 9 blown ones. He doesn't walk people, he doesn't give up homeruns.

And now he's hurt. He might be out for 3 to 4 months. Even if he were healthy, he's never been tested. He's been closing a few games for a sub .500 team in front of less than 20,000 fans a game. Now he has to close games in a playoff race in front of a packed ballpark. He hasn't pitched more than 50 innings since his rookie year. And probably won't in 2012 either.

So he's capable of succeeding. It will be interesting to see how he deals with adversity in this city. If he blew a save in Oakland, who cared? It's a bit different here. I think he'll be decent when healthy. Not as good as Papelbon, not bad enough to search for a mid-season replacement.

Mark Melancon's resume is interesting. He's only 27 but the Sox are his third Major League organization. He was a reliever in college, which always raises a yellow flag for me. I feel like the best Major Leaguers relievers were once starters at a lower level.

But he is a worker. He made 71 appearances and pitched 74.1 innings last year. And it was his best year. He won 8 games, recorded 20 saves, had a 2.78 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. He only let 4 of 17 inherited runners score.

There are very few Mike Timlins out there who can have a long, consistently successful career as a setup pitcher. Maybe Melancon has a few good years in him, maybe he's already peaked, maybe he's a future closer. But for 2012, I think he'll be very good as a set-up man and should be okay as a replacement closer.

The problem is, with Melancon closing, you get an inferior pitcher setting up to replace him.

Matt Albers is a token middle-reliever. He recorded 10 holds last year, blew 3 saves, had a 4-4 record. He pitched mostly in losses. He was actually pretty good until August and September. He's a gap-filler, pitching the 6th inning of a game that the Sox are behind by 3 runs, pitching the 8th inning of a game that the Sox are winning by 5 runs. And as a gap-filler, you just want someone who isn't horrible, who doesn't make bad situations worse, or make you use your closer in a game you once had a 6 run lead in. And Matt Albers isn't horrible.

Franklin Morales isn't a shutdown situational lefty. But on the bright side, he's not bad against righties, either.

I'm not a fan of Morales. I'd rather have a guy who can dominate left-handed hitters and who can only give you 0.1 innings a night as opposed to a guy who is semi-good against both lefties and righties. Morales is very similar to Albers, in my view. These gap-fillers are fine, but the Sox need a second setup pitcher to emerge from this mediocre middle of the bullpen.

Michael Bowden has been in the Sox' organization since high school. He never excelled as a starter so now he's being used as a reliever. It's the equivalent of a failed film actor trying to make it as a TV actor. He's only 25, but this is his 7th year with the Sox.

He was a very good reliever in AAA Pawtucket last year, but struggled once he hit the Majors. He has potential to be the 2nd setup pitcher and as a former starter he's quite capable of pitching 2 or more innings in an appearance. I have a good feeling about Bowden. I think he has a breakout year as a reliever and records at least 20 holds.

The quality of the Sox bullpen will improve if the rotation struggles. Which is like saying that a car's engine will run more smoothly if the tires fall off. A slight bit of good news mixed with some horrible news.

If Bard can't make it as a starter, there's your 2nd setup man. But how many leads will he, Melancon, and Bailey need to protect? Where Aceves winds up will determine quite a bit. If Bard and Doubront struggle, you need to plug Aceves into the rotation. A setup pitcher might be more important than a #5 starter, but not a #4.

If the Sox had acquired just one frontline starter in the offseason, not only would their rotation been solidified, it would have dramatically improved the bullpen. Now you have guys like Morales and Albers who will need to be used when Matsuzaka throws his 5 inning, 140 pitch gems.

And there's very little safety net for this bullpen. With the loss of little old Andrew Bailey, the entire bullpen and even the rotation look so much weaker.

It's a very shallow, very tenuous bullpen.

Red Sox Preview: Starting Pitchers

The Sox rotation is top-heavy. It's success will depend on how heavy that top can be. Teams have been successful in the past with just 2 or 3 great pitchers. 2 pitchers can start 60% of a 5 game series, and 57% of a 7 game series. 3 pitchers can do 80% and 86%.

So you only need 3 great pitchers. The question with for the Sox rotation in 2012 is: can 2 or 3 be great enough to make up for the lack of quality in the others?

Jon Lester is a dependable rock. He's never been an Ace, but he is reliable and very productive. You can count on Lester for an ERA between 3.20 and 3.50, 190 to 210 innings, 15 to 19 wins, and a WHIP between 1.20 and 1.27. In the last four years, he has not deviated outside of these ranges.

Maybe this is the year he steps up and becomes an Ace, but I think that is an unfair expectation. I think this is the year that he pitches like he's pitched for the last 4 years. He'll win 17 games, with an ERA around 3.40. A very fine, very respectable, quality year of work.

Josh Beckett is as unpredictable as Jon Lester is predictable. From game to game, year to year, Beckett is a gamble. He had a 2.89 ERA last year but only managed 13 wins in 31 starts. That was partly due to bad luck. 8 of his 11 no-decisions were Quality Starts.

The question with Beckett has never been "what's he capable of?" It's always been a question of consistency? Going into last September, he was 12-5 with a 2.54 ERA. He was 1-2 in September, with an ERA of 14.79. Which is the real Josh Beckett? They both are.

In 2012, I think Beckett will win at least 18 games. His ERA will be around 3.10. But he'll have some very bad starts, hopefully not at a time when his teammates need him to be his best. But as a whole, I actually am optimistic about his 2012 season.

Clay Buchholz's health could determine if the Red Sox contend for the AL East, or struggle for the 2nd AL Wild Card. He emerged as a frontline starter in 2010, winning 17 games with a 2.33 ERA. Last year he struggled in April then settled down in May and June, going 5-0 with a 2.59 ERA in those months. And if he didn't get hurt, who knows how the season would have gone.

Back injuries worry me. And Buchholz' physique is far from burly. There's no way to tell how well he'll recover from his injuries. If he doesn't, the Sox have a void in a rotation that already has a few voids after him.

If Buchholz does well, the Sox will be contenders. If Buchholz is just okay, the Sox can survive. If Buchholz struggles, they can't.

Why is Buchholz so important? Because the back-end of the Sox rotation is garbage.

Daniel Bard hasn't been a starter since 2007 when he was with Single-A Greenville and High-A Lancaster. It did not go well. In 22 starts (17 in Greenville, 5 in Lancaster) he managed to pitch 75 innings (3.4 per start). He had an ERA of 7.08 and a WHIP of 2.05.

That was a long time ago. He was 22 years old and just out of college. He was converted to a reliever in 2008 and did so well in that new role that it got him to the Majors by 2009. Walks killed him as a starter (he averaged more than one an inning) and he's dramatically improved in that area. Against MLB hitters, he walks 0.386 per inning.

That's one inning per appearance though, against hitters who hadn't yet seen his stuff. This Spring, he's struggled as a starter. 13 walks in 18.2 innings. And 17 hits.

As a reliever, he's been able to fool batters one time. As a starter, he's not fooling anyone and certainly not fooling them twice.

I don't expect him to finish the season as a member of the starting rotation.

Felix Doubrant is having an unbelievable Spring. Which means a lot today, but will mean nothing on Thursday. He's bounced around the lower levels of the Sox' minor league system, occasionally excelling and occasionally disappointing. I'm not surprised the Sox are giving him a chance to be a starter, I'll be shocked if he's still in the rotation once summer starts.

Alfredo Aceves has much more starting experience than Bard. 108 minor league starts and 9 in the Majors. Aceves could be a serviceable 5th starter. An innings eater. He won't be horrible like John Lackey was last year. He'll give 5 or 6 innings of solid work a night, with an ERA hovering above 4.50. And that's not bad for a 5th starter.

But if he is the 4th starter, then that's scary.

Right now he's in the bullpen, but I think will wind up in the rotation very soon.

It's a chilling thought, but the savior of the Red Sox rotation might be Daisuke Matsuzaka. He might not be able to return until the middle of summer. And his contribution will be even less predictable than usual thanks to Tommy John surgery.

But if Lester pitches like Lester, Beckett pitches up to (or even close to) his potential, and Buchholz manages to stay healthy, Daisuke is not a bad 4th starter.

Unfortunately for the Sox, Daisuke needs a strong bullpen in order to succeed. And we'll discuss how unlikely that will be in the next preview post.

Sox Set Rotation

Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, Doubront, Bard. That will be what the Red Sox rotation will look like to start the season. And maybe Jordan's Furniture should give away free stuff if that rotation looks the same in September. Or even May.

You'll notice the absence of Alfredo Aceves. Rumor has it that Andrew Bailey is injured and when asked about that injury, all Bobby Valentine could do was place a finger to his lips and pretend to gag. Which I guess is the same as Bill Belichick saying "we can't comment on that player because we don't fully know that player's status at this time."

Aceves could go to the bullpen while Bailey recovers, possibly assuming the closer's role.

This rotation is unique. A career #2 pitcher as the #1, a guy who's been an Ace in the past and has also sucked in the past as a #2, a recovering back injury in the #3 spot, a puzzling quadruple-A pitcher in the #4 spot, a converted reliever who struggled as a minor league starter as the #5 pitcher, and the closer's role filled by a guy who has performed decently as a starter.

All with Bobby Valentine using gestures and jokes to talk about the team.

Even if this rotation proves disastrous, it will at least be interesting and entertaining to see the disaster unfold. It's like a Michael Bay movie. Only Bay is more willing to spend money.

Boston's Black Hole of Media Attention

A Black Hole is a cosmic phenomenon that has such a strong gravitational pull that not even light can escape its grasp. It's a focused and powerful concentration of unimaginable density that literally sucks in and absorbs everything around it. No matter what is going on, if a Black Hole is in the area, it becomes the center of attention. Black Holes are the Bobby Valentines of the Universe.

Every story that centers on or even remotely involves the Red Sox this season will ultimately be about Bobby Valentine. He's an egomaniac and an attention whore. He tries to control the entire sports media.

When was the last time that (in Spring Training) there was a very public spat between the Red Sox manager and the manager of another team? How about two spats? Valentine just had stand on his platform to voice his opinions on Ozzie Guillen a few weeks ago. And more recently he took a run at Joe Girardi for not wanting to take a Spring Training game into extra innings.

He enjoys creating these meaningless nothing stories.

The marriage of Bobby V and the Boston sports media is perfect. In theory. We have one of the hungriest medias in the country here, and Bobby Valentine will feed them three meals a day, plus snacks. The media is hungry and Bobby V loves to cook.

That marriage might need some counseling, though. After Chris Gasper pointed out differences of opinions between Valentine and GM Ben Cherington, Valentine lashed out at the media. He called it "lazy journalism."

And after he denied the rift about 3 times, that's when his denials became less and less believable.

What does Valentine expect? More fluff pieces about wrap sandwiches? More Girardi vs. Valentine crap that he initiates?

The thing about Black Holes is that they suck up everything around them, without the ability to pick and choose what it absorbs. Bobby V likes to control the media, to use it as a tool to motivate players, or even just to placate his own starving ego. Sometimes, however, the media actually does their job. They report that the egomaniacal manager is having disagreements with the inexperienced pawn of a GM.

Bobby Valentine loves a circus, so long as he's the Ring Leader. That's how he feels like life and the Universe should work, with him in the center, controlling everything.

For now, that's not a terrible thing for the Sox. He is drawing all the media's scrutiny. All the pressure from the press is falling on him. The Sox have Cody Ross as a starting outfielder, no idea who their short-stop will be, and can't seem to find a 4th or 5th starter.

Yet everyone is talking about Bobby Valentine.

His egomania is protecting the team. Today. When they play meaningful games, they'll have to fend for themselves. And Circus Ring Leader Bobby Valentine will find out that the media aren't his minions. They will be his assassins.

More on the Andrew Bailey Trade

The Sox sent Josh Reddick, infield prospect Miles Head (yes, the Sox gave Head for Andrew Bailey), and minor league pitcher Raul Alcantara to Oakland. In return, they received Andrew Bailey, and outfielder Ryan Sweeney.

There's nothing not to like about this move. Reddick was a decent 4th outfielder, but that's something easily acquired. Ryan Sweeney, for instance, has a .283 career average. Bailey, on the other hand, considerably improves the Red Sox bullpen. Which needed improving.

He's closed for three seasons in Oakland. And while he's never recorded more than 30 Saves in a season, that's probably because Oakland hasn't finished above .500 in the three seasons he's been out there. He's only blown 9 Saves in his career, and only 5 in the last two years. That's an 89% conversion rate, and that's not bad. Papelbon converted 88% of his Saves.

It'll be interesting to see how he handles an increased workload. He only pitched 41.2 innings last year, and 49 the year before. Again, as closer for the A's, opportunities to work are limited. He threw 83.1 innings in his rookie season and did quite well.

He doesn't have the track record of an established MLB closer, but he has done the job. Unlike say Daniel Bard. Speaking of which, it's almost a foregone conclusion that Bard will be in the rotation.

It's kind of funny how boring and frustrating this Red Sox season has been that this seems like a huge acquisition.