BC FOOTBALL, BCS WORTHY OR NO?

The BC Eagles are ranked 25th by the USA Today poll, and are just out of the top 25 in the ESPN poll. With their 22-3 drubbing of #22/#17 Virginia Tech, they will probably be in or near the top 20 in both polls.

The Eagles are in a three-way tie for 2nd place in the ACC Atlantic Division. They're 2-1 within the ACC along with NC State (who beat BC 17-15) and Wake Forest (who BC plays November 4th). The first place team is Clemson, who BC beat in Double OT, but who are also 3-1 in the ACC.

BC will not be able to get into the BCS through an at-large bid. They have to win the ACC Atlantic, then win the ACC title game in order to get to the BCS. I think the Eagles need to get into the BCS or the other large bowl games. They've won 6 Bowls in a row, but none of them have been even remotely prestigious or widely watched.

There are 10 BCS spots available this season, with automatic bids going to the champions of the SEC, Pac-10, Big XII, Big Ten, ACC, and Big East. Boston College will probably not be in the 4 at-large bids unless they run the table and do so impressively.

The #2 ACC team will go to the Chik-fil-A Peach Bowl in Atlanta to face the #5 SEC team. This is a somewhat prestigious bowl game in that the SEC and ACC are both power conferences, and the game is usually against two top teams in the country.

The #3 ACC team will play on New Years Day in the Gator Bowl against a Big XII, Big East, or Notre Dame team. This is a very good bowl to be selected for and winning this game would be the biggest victory for Boston College in quite a long time.

The #4 ACC team will play in the Champs Sports Bowl against a #4 or #5 Big Ten team. Now the bowls start getting less prestigious.

The #5 or the #6 ACC team will play in the Meineke Car Care Bowl against a Big East team. Not much clout in this bowl. The #5 ACC team might also play in the Music City Bowl. The #5 or #6 might also play in the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco. The final ACC bowl bid is in the MPC Computers Bowl in Boise which BC won last year.

Here are the possibilities for Boston College and what they'd have to do in order to get there:

BCS Bowl: win out in the ACC, possibly losing 1 more ACC game, then winning the ACC title game

Peach Bowl: win the ACC Atlantic Division or finish very strong 2nd in Atlantic Division

Gator Bowl: finish 2nd in the ACC Atlantic with a very good record in the ACC and overrall

Champs Sports Bowl: finish a bad 2nd or a good 3rd in the Atlantic Division

Meineke/Music City/Emerald/MPC Computers: finish .500, finish anything but last in the ACC Atlantic

The Eagles are 5-1 (2-1 in the ACC. Next week they go to Tallahassee to play Florida State. FSU is not very good this season with an unspectacular 4-2 record, 2-2 in the ACC. They lost to Clemson and NC State this year. They won't be pushovers, though. BC does struggle on the road, and we're almost never good in the state of Florida. But we can still win this game. If we do, we'd almost ensure a top 5 finish in the ACC Atlantic.

The week after, BC hosts Buffalo. This game is nothing but a mid-season semi-bye week. Buffalo stands little to no chance to win this game. However, winning this game will not improve BC's credibility or prestige in the national spotlight.

BC's non-conference schedule just isn't that hard, neither is their conference schedule. The Eagles scheduled I-AA Maine, Buffalo, Central Michigan, and BYU. Now, the argument could be made that with Va. Tech, FSU, and Miami on the ACC schedule, scheduling softer non-conference teams makes sense. However, people will still see the weak BC schedule and it could cost them a better bowl bid or a few spots in the rankings.

After Buffalo, the Eagles go down south again to play Wake Forest. This is one of the biggest games for BC left to play. For some reason BC struggles mightily against WFU. But on paper, WFU just isn't that impressive. They too have played a weak schedule. They did beat NC State this weekend, but they also lost to Clemson. The next toughest team they played was UConn, nuf said. They're still part of that 3 way tie in 2nd place in the division, and probably will be 3-1 after their game with UNC the week before they host Boston College.

After WFU, the Eagles have three games in a row to end the season which they should win. They host Duke, Maryland, then play Miami on Thankskgiving. Duke and Maryland are abysmal, and probably won't adjust to playing in Chestnut Hill in mid-November. The game down in Miami will be up against a team that might be fighting for a bowl bid if anything. The game will be tough, but BC should win it.

Honestly, BC SHOULD win out, but that doesn't mean they will. They tend to lose games to teams that should be crushed. If BC wins out, they'll finish 7-1 in the ACC.

The best Clemson can do is 7-1, but they'd have to beat #22 Virginia Tech and #13 Georgia Tech to do that. BC has a tie-breaker against them anyway with the head-to-head win.

If BC beats Wake Forest, the best Wake can do in the ACC is 6-2. Even if we lost another ACC game, if we beat Wake, we'll be in great shape because we'll have the tie-breaker in case of a tie.

NC State is a team to worry about. They have the tie-breaker against us so we have to finish with a better record than them. However, they have two tough ACC games coming up. They play Georgia Tech on November 4th, then go to Clemson the next weak. Four of their remaining five ACC games are on the road. They appear as though they'll finish with an ACC record of 5-3 or 6-2. If they finish 5-3, we might not have to worry about the Wolfpack.

If we beat Florida State, which we deifnately are capable of doing, we effectively eliminate them from the divisional title hunt. They'd be 2-3 in the ACC, capable of 5-3 in the conference at best. This game is a huge one. If we don't win it, FSU can easily finish 6-2, which would also be the best we could finish. With the head-to-head loss, we'd lose on the tie breaker.

Maryland might determine who wins the ACC Atlantic. If they upset one of the top teams, they could change the complection of the entire division. They still haven't played an Atlantic Division team so they still have a shot, but they're not nearly good enough. They might steal a win from a team like FSU, NCSU, WFU, or even BC, which would really hurt that team's chances.

Let's just say that BC runs the table, finished 7-1 in the ACC, winning the Atlantic Division. They'd be assured of either a BCS Bowl, the Peach Bowl, or the Gator Bowl. Then they'd play the Coastal Division champs, which will probably be the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. GT is ranked in the top 15 in both polls, but they aren't a monster team. They're very good, but not amazingly great. They did put up a fight against Notre Dame, but their wins against Samford, Troy, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Maryland aren't exactly massively difficult wins. It would definately be a contest between Georgia Tech and whoever wins the Atlantic Division.

So, to answer the question asked as the title of this post, the answer is yes, but they still have to earn it. They have to run the table or maybe lose one in their remaining ACC schedule. They then have to win the ACC title game in Jacksonville.

Boston College has won 6 straight bowls, but none of those bowls have much notoriety. Even if BC were to lose their bowl game, it'd still be a big achievement to make a top New Years Bowl or a BCS Bowl. The Eagles can definately do it, the question is will they?

SORRY FOR THE LACK OF UPDATES

I'd just like to apologize to my loyal readers, whose numbers have probably decreased somewhat over the past few weeks. The month of August began, and my updating of this blog ended. I was playing about 60 to 80 hours of poker a week at a casino 2 hours from my apartment so time was not something I had very much of. When scho0l resumed, my poker subsided, but by then, there wasn't much I could write about the Red Sox other than:

"The Red Sox are folding, they're not trying, they're really pissing me off."

That would basically be the game summary for every Sox game in September.

The collapse, as we all know, seemeed to begin in mid-August with the 5 straight losses to New York. However, I think it began before then and was only expidited by the Second Boston Massacre.

Before the 5 game series, we lost 2 of 3 to Detroit in Fenway. We swept Baltimore in 3 before that, but before that we were swept by KANSAS CITY in 3 games!!! KC was 62-100 this year, BTW. Right before the Royals series, we lost 2 of 3 to the only other 100 loss team in baseball, the 61-101 Devil Rays. That's right, the Sox went 1-5 on a road trip to Tampa, then Kansas City.

The really sad and infuriating thing wasn't the collapse of the team, it was the needless collapse. It was't as though they threw in the towel when they were thoroughly beaten, they threw it in much too early.

They were only 7 back of the Yankees in the loss column, which was not a completely insurmountable lead with 40 games to go. The Sox were also only 4 games out of the Wild Card. Then the Sox kicked back, relaxed, and let themselves become a complete and utter embarassment. They finished 5th in the Wild Card, a mere 10 games over .500, and 3rd in the AL East behind the Blue Jays. The Blue Jays also spent $49 million fewer on player payroll.

The Sox spent $121 million for a team that won 86 games. They didn't go out and get anyone at the deadline, they didn't do much to change their glaring problems. It seemed as though the team was built to have a chance to make the playoffs, but not to really do anything more than that. It seemed like a place holder team with a solid offense and a few exciting players that would keep Fenway sold out for the entire season.

There were a great deal of dissapointments on the Red Sox this year, I'll have a post on that soon enough. Right now I just want to say what sectors the Sox absolutely MUST improve on next season.

1. Starting pitching top to bottom. Beckett was a massive failure in 2006, not just a dissapointment. Schilling will be another year older. So will Wakefield.

2. The bullpen. The answer isn't moving Papelbon by the way. I think that's a terrible idea. He should be our closer until we KNOW what we're going to get from another closer. We need more middle-relief. Mike Timlin has been worn down to very little. We need a few veterans mixed in with our younger pitchers. We also need this veterans to be good, not just guys like Rudy Seanez or Julian Tavarez, who was only good when nobody cared.

3. The offense. But not that much, not as much as the pitching. We only scored 820 runs this year, we need to get that number up. We lost a lot of production from catcher and we didn't have much production from the outfield except for Manny, when he was playing that is. With our lack of pitching, we NEED to be scoring 900 runs or more. This season we actually scored fewer runs than we allowed (820 to 825).

The only aspect of this team that was good was the defense. Defense doesn't win games, however, it keeps you from losing them. Without our defense, we're probably a .500 team.

Theo and the Sox have A LOT of work to do this winter.

YET ANOTHER ORTIZ GAME WINNER

David Ortiz is the MVP of the AL. That's it. I don't care that he doesn't play the field every day. He had 4 hits and 4 RBI in yesterday's 7-6 extra innings victory over the LA Angels. He sparked the 8th inning game tying rally with a solo homer, then hit a pitch the opposite way out of the Ortiz shift in the 11th inning to end the game.

The Sox showed a great deal of resiliency in yesterday's game. Things like Manny's outfield assist, Papelbon's 2 perfect innings of relief to keep the Angels at bay, and Ortiz's oppo single demonstrate that this team is capable of winning any game any day, even if they're behind. That's very good for our hopes to make the playoffs and to do well in the playoffs.

Speaking of playoffs, the Red Sox gained a game on the Yankees after New York fell to the mighty Devil Rays 19-6. That's right, the Yankees were crushed in Yankee Stadium by Tampa Bay. The Sox lead in the division is now 1.5 games. The Sox also have a theoretical lead in the Wild Card of a game over Chicago.

David Wells will return to the Sox rotation tomorrow to face the Indians. He threw a simulated game last week and looked well. He will be forgoing a rehab start, which isn't such a bad idea. The Sox need starting pitching now and there are only 60 games left in the season.

SOX BELT A'S WITH LONG BALLS

Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz prove once again why they are the best combination of hitters in baseball. They're now at 60 combined homers and 171 combined RBI.

The Sox gave Beckett a 4 run lead in the early innings and that was enough.

The Sox maintain their 2.5 game lead over New York in the AL East. The Sox also have a game lead on the Wild Card leading White Sox.

SOX THAT DESERVE REWARDS
There's only 64 games left for the Sox this season. Looking at the numbers, there are a few Sox players that could be up for individual accolades.

David Ortiz should win the MVP. He's got 95 RBI. The next highest in the AL is Travis Hafner with 83. Of course, some fools will not vote for him because he's a DH and not a "full-time" player. However, take Ortiz off the Red Sox and we're looking at a 3rd place team.

Papelbon should win the Rolaids Relief Award. He has the lowest ERA of every player in baseball who has pitched a significant amount of innings. 29 Saves in 32 opportunities. His WHIP is a ludicrous 0.71 and his 0.53 ERA speaks for itself. He's got 52 Ks in 51 innings with a strikeout to walk ratio of 5.78 to 1.

Since Papelbon pitched less than 50 innings last season, he is eligible for the Rookie of the Year Award. Frankly, I don't see how he couldn't get it. There are some out there who feel that Jared Weaver of the Angels is a contender. Weaver is 7-0 in 7 starts and if he remains perfect for the remainder of the year, he probably will get it. However, there are still a great deal of ballgames left to play and at the moment, Papelbon is the front runner for the award.

WELLS LOOKS "GOOD"
David Wells threw a 5 inning simulated game yesterday in Oakland. Manager Terry Francona said that Wells seemed like he got tired pitching in the heat, but looked "good." If all goes well, Wells could be pitching a minor league rehab start at the end of the week.

Schilling looks for win #13 against righty Jason Windsor.

SOX UP 3.5 ON YANKEES AFTER 9-4 WIN

The Sox pounded 5 homers against Jamie Moyer and the Mariners en route to a 9-4 win. Kyle Snyder pitched well, allowing 2 runs in 5 innings before leaving with a leg cramp.

Kason Gabbard will make his MLB debut this afternoon as the starting pitcher. It is the 11th different starter the Sox have used this season, tying 2002's total. 2002 was also the last year we didn't make the playoffs.

Over the off-season, we definately must acquire some starting pitching.

The Yankees have been sucking as of late, dropping two straight to the Blue Jays. Toronto is now 5.5 behind us for 1st place and 2 behind New York for 2nd place. It's amazing what things like getting rid of Shea Hillenbrand can do for a team. We need to continue to beat up on bad tems like Seattle and Kansas City.

SOX WIN A TOUGH ONE, THIS TIME AGAINST A REAL TEAM

The Sox bats finally seemed to wake up yesterday afternoon against the Rangers. Seven Sox starters had a hit, and 4 had multiple hit games. WM Pena returned to the lineup and went 2 for 3 with a pair of 2 out RBI. You might remember Willy Mo as the other outfielder who is batting .330.

Schilling wasn't his Schutout self that he's been lately, but he was good enough to pitch 7 innings and kept the Rangers to 4 runs, which gave the Sox a chance to win the game. Delcarmen pitched a scoreless 8th, and Timlin came in to close it out with a perfect 9th for his 2nd Save of the year.

I don't think I can say enough about how valuable Mike Timlin has been to the Sox these past few seasons. Since 2003, he's been our best and most consistent reliever. We saw the rise and fall of Allan Embree, the great season Foulke had in '04, and now Papelbon is the top man in the bullpen, but Timlin has always been there. He's given us 274.2 good innings in 3 and a half seasons. 18 Saves, 77 Holds, and 23 Wins.

Anyway, the Sox take their 4 game winning streak on the road to face Seattle. They also carry a 2.5 game lead in the division thanks to Toronto's 5-4 extra inning win over the Yankees. Another important standings note, the Sox now have the same record as the White Sox, who lead the Wild Card.

Kyle Snyder takes on Jamie Moyer in a late, late game tonight at SafeCo

SOX SQUEEZE OUT A SWEEP

I'm not very impressed with a sweep of Kansas City in which every game was a nail biting 1 run win. However, three wins are three wins. The Sox were carried by the pitching staff the past few days. Beckett threw another 8 inning gem, and Papelbon closed it for his 29th save. Manny hit a solo shot in the 4th for the lone run of the game. Mark Redman got the complete game loss and might have impressed some people looking for an extra pitcher (us, the Yankees).

The Sox are going to have to kick it up a notch now. Lefty John Rheinecker goes against Curt Schilling this afternoon in a makeup game against the Rangers. Righties are batting .372 against Rheinecker, but lefties are batting .178. I'm just gonna guess that Manny will have a big day at the plate.

Thanks to New York's loss to Seattle yesterday, the Sox are now 1.5 games ahead of them for first place in the division. We fly out to Oakland for a West Coast trip after today's game. The Yankees are up in Toronto for a 4 game series. That series could make Toronto a contender if they do well, or knock them out of the race. They're 5.5 behind us, which isn't insurmountable, but they need to start winning games.

THAT'S JUST SHANEY BEING SHANEY
Speaking of Toronto, they just cut former Red Sox third baseman and Fenway heartthrob Shea Hillenbrand. Why? Because he was chewing out the front office through the media.

Apparently Shea was upset that he wasn't getting enough playing time. He also declared expectations to be traded. He was also disappointed because nobody in the front office congratulated him on adopting a child. After his comments hit the press, the Jays held a team meeting to chew him out. Then, Hillenbrand refused to sit in the dugout during the game. He was summarily designated for assignment.

Toronto manager John Gibbons thinks his release "Will do wonders for the clubhouse."

This isn't the first time Hillenbrand has felt jilted by an organization that didn't treat him like a superstar. The guy has some ego on him. Good luck to the next franchise that tries him out.

SOX EXTEND BECKETT TO 2009
$30 million for three years is what Beckett will cost us. I have to say, that isn't a bad deal. He seems to like being here, and I think we can all agree that he has improved the team. I don't think he'll be the Ace of the staff after 2007 when Schilling leaves unless he becomes a lot more consistent. I still think we need to acquire another top pitcher when Schilling leaves. However, the move to lock him up is a good one. The Sox avoided the hassle and bidding wars brought on by free agency and locked Beckett up over a year before they had to. Good job, Theo. Now, if you could have only done that with Pedro.

WAKE SIDELINED WITH FRACTURED RIB
According to the Globe, Tim Wakefield will be placed on the 15 Day DL with a stress fracture in one of his ribs. The injury will put him out for at least 3 weeks. This adds to the Red Sox pitching woes. Kason Gabbard, 9-2 in AA Portland, is expected to take Wakefield's spot in the rotation.

LES IS MORE

Jon Lester has been somewhat of a savior for the Sox this season (say that 3 times fast). He went 8 scoreless, 1 hit innings last night to save the bullpen, and help the Red Sox to a 1-0 victory. Papelbon closed it out with a perfect 9th...again.

The lone Red Sox run came after Varitek hit a double off the Monster. It was only Tek's 2nd wall ball all season. He was knocked in by an Alex Gonzalez single up the middle after a long and tough at-bat.

The game was also Varitek's 991st game as a Red Sox catcher, a record for the 105 year old club, surpassing Carlton Fisk's mark of 990. The Captain has only missed games due to injury once when he broke his elbow diving for a foul ball.

The victory keeps the Sox half a game up on New York.

David Wells threw a 42 pitch, 3 inning simulated game today and there are no reports of discomfort or pain. He'll have another side session on Friday, most likely, then pitch another simulated game Monday.

Willy Mo Pena was activated off the DL, Jermaine Van Buren was called up from AAA. Javier Lopez was sent down to AAA and Willie Harris was designated for assignment.

The Sox look for the sweep this afternoon as Beckett faces Redman.