SO WHAT SHOULD THE BRUINS DO?

The Bruins lead to change. They need better leaders, and fewer followers. They need scoring. They need consistency. They have to build on their strengths, and try to hide their weaknesses.

I. FIRE CLAUDE
Julien has to go. He's an excellent defensive coach, but look at the playoffs this year. Scoring wins as much as defense. Moreover, he's not a playoff coach. An excellent strategist, but an uninspirational leader. He's Brutus, not Mark Antony. He's the math teacher, not the gym teacher.

II. TRADE THOMAS, KEEP RASK

Pretty obvious. Loyal readers know how much I love Thomas. And I like Rask, just hate the reactionary fans who fell in love with him after 20 games. Rask still has holes and flaws. I for one, do not like his collapsing style. But he's cheap, he's young, and he might be the most valuable player in the NHL because of those factors.

What do the B's get for Thomas? Probably not much. His contract is heavy, he's not in his prime, everyone knows the Bruins have to trade him.

III. NEW CAPTAIN

I love Zdeno Chara. He's my favorite non-German Bruin. But he's not a Captain. I think that "C" on his chest weighs him down. He expressed being "nervous," during the Philly series. He's an excellent player, and deserves an "A," and is a great leader-by-example. But I think he'd be a better leader if he were demoted.

IV. D-FENSE! D-FENSE!
The Bruins have an excellent stack of defensemen. Chara, Wideman, Hunwick and Ference are under contract. They need to retain Seidenberg, and try to keep Boychuk. Chara-Seidenberg, then Wideman-Boychuk, then Hunwick-Ference. If you can trade Ference and keep Stuart, even better. That's 6 excellent D-men, 5 of whom can skate on the power play, and 4 of whom would are excellent penalty killers (5 if Stuart is retained). They all get involved in the offense when possible, and they all help out Rask.

V. BILLY G.
I want Bill Guerin. He'll turn 40 in November. But he scored 21 goals for Pittsburgh last season, 11 on the power play. He's experienced, and a leader. He's won the Cup twice, and has 140 playoff games under his belt. He could be worthy of a "C" on his chest. He could be got for a $2.2 million, 1 year deal. That's less than what Blake Wheeler was paid this season, and Guerin certainly brings much more than Wheeler.

VI. ILYA OR NOT ILYA?

Ilya Kovalchuk is the prize jewel free agent of this off-season. Only 27 years old and he's already scored 338 times. At 6' 2" and 230 pounds, he's a big guy who can skate and finish. He's Phil Kessel with balls. But he won't be cheap. He'll be contested and bid on like a date with Jessica Alba on eBay. And he's likely out of the Bruins' price range.

VII. SO WHO DO WE BUY?
The other top free agent is Patrick Marleau. Unless the Bruins trade a center, Marleau doesn't help them much. Although he's a sick player. 44 goals for the Sharks this season. Again, he wouldn't come cheap, and the Bruins might have 5 centers as it is. Could Savard play wing?

There are a lot of solid types available. These guys can be gotten at fair value, and can be solid contributors. To be honest, I think a reasonable goal for the Bruins would be to assemble 2 solid lines of scorers, and combine them with 2 checking lines that will rarely score, but maintain possession of the puck.

One name on the free agent list that jumped out was Paul Kariya. The winger will be 36 during the season, and he only scored 18 goals last year, but he has experience and can find the net.

Alexander Frolov is a more appealing option. He's perennially around the 20 goal mark (averaged 24 per season over the last 7), and he's only 28.

The Bruins might also consider getting aggressive and tendering an offer sheet to restricted free agent Chris Stewart. The 22 year old scored 28 times last year, and has ridiculous upside. But extracting him from Colorado will be near impossible.

VIII. IF->THEN
If the Bruins get Kovalchuk, they can't afford to re-sign anybody significant. And it might actually be worth it. A front-line of Kovalchuk, Savard, and X would be impressive. But let's be realistic. The more likely scenario will be that the Bruins retain their defensemen, and their grinding forwards like Sobotka. Wheeler might be let go, as might Satan and Recchi. Some modest acquisitions like Guerin and Kariya/Frolov could fill in the gaps. And then you just hope that Ryder and Lucic find their 2008-09 form.

IX. BRIDGE SEASON

The Bruins have 4 top 50 draft picks. They'll be freed of Chara's contract after next season, same with Bergeron's $4.75M salary, Ryder's $4M. They'll have unbelievable flexibility. So I actually don't mind going after Kovalchuk and foresaking any depth for the 2010-11 season. In 2011-12, it might be all worth it, when cap space and a new generation of young players can refill the depth.

It's difficult to suggest which course the Bruins should go. Either take a chance that the draft will work out in the future and foresake yourself now (which might mean Chiarelli's job), or try to build on what the Bruins have. And this team has advanced to the 2nd round of the playoffs two straight seasons. So they can't be doing everything wrong.

Frankly, I'm a gambler. I say trade some talent, make enough space for Kovalchuk. Get him, probably fail in the playoffs again, then build a new team around him and Rask. Go big or go home. But that's probably not even possible. So build a solid team of decent forwards, build some depth at the position, hope you can have multiple threats to score 3 goals, while Rask and the defense limits your opponent.

STANLEY CUP FINALS PREVIEW

A tale of two cities, of two teams, of two historic franchises long overdue for some silverware. The Blackhawks rode the high road to get here, winning 52 games, claiming the 2nd seed in the West, and going 12-4 in the playoffs, rolling through their competition. The Flyers, took the low road. They squeezed in on the last day of the season by the slimmest of margins: a shootout goal. They're 12-5 in the playoffs, but were once on the brink, down 0-3 to the Bruins, before surging back, then thumping Montreal.

The Blackhawks haven't won the Cup since 1961. The Flyers since '75.





Philly's playoff run has been, in a word: compelling. They lose Jeff Carter, but are able to beat Brodeur and the Devils in 5 games. They fall behind Boston 3-0, even losing their goalie, then comeback and win the series in the Bruins' ice. Then they face the giant slayers from Montreal, who could beat Washington and Pittsburgh, bet couldn't handle the Flyers. Not even close.

But I'll burst your bubble, Philly. The playoffs are about weaknesses more than they're about strengths. The Flyers have a balanced offense (10th in scoring) with multiple threats (7 players with 4+ goals this postseason). They also boast 4 stalwart defenseman, including the guy with a triathlete's endurance: Chris Pronger. Where's the weakness? Goaltending. Despite their solid defense, the Flyers were 15th in goals allowed this season.

But in the playoffs they have the best GAA, an impressive 2.12! Have Leighton and Boucher stepped up in the postseason? Yes. But that's not the total story. Certainly both have been solid, but they've also benefited from their opponents' lack of offensive prowess.

The Devils were 19th in the NHL in goals scored. The Canadiens 23rd. The Bruins 29th. The Devils had Kovalchuk and Parise. The Bruins' offense was spearheaded by a 42 year old in Mark Recchi and a scrap-heap acquisition in Miroslav Satan. The Canadiens had Mike Cammalleri, and nothing else.

Chicago had the 3rd best offense in the NHL's regular season, averaged 3.31 goals per game in the post-season thus far (behind only Vancouver and Detroit).

They get offense from multiple players, just like Philadelphia. Six Blackhawks have 4+ postseason goals. Six Blackhawks had 20+ regular season goals.

Moreover, Chicago will be playing with home ice advantage. Philadelphia was 17-21-3 on the road during the regular season, and 5-4 during the playoffs. Chicago was 29-8-4 at home this season. But they've actually been better on the road in the postseason, with a spectacular 7-1 record away from Chicago.

Now what's Chicago's weakness? It might just be goaltending too. Antti Niemi's had an impressive 2.33 GAA in the postseason, but his SV% is much less staggering, at .921, it's 5th among playoff goalies with 4+ starts.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that there will be goals. Both teams have good offenses and exploitable goalies. Chicago's power-play wasn't very good in the regular season (17.7%), but it's been decent in the postseason (22.6%). Then again, both teams are very good penalty killers. (85.0% for Chicago and 83.0% for Philly in the regular season, 86.6% and 87% for them, respectively, in the playoffs).

So who has the edge? Chicago. While Philadelphia's Top-4 D-men have been outstanding this postseason, they've yet to face a team that can roll 2 to 3 good scoring lines. Moreover, Chicago can keep possession of the puck, wearing out those 4 defensemen.

My gut wants to say Chicago in 5. But I'll temper that with some pessimism and say Chicago in 6.



CONN SMYTHE WATCH:

Antti Niemi, G, CHI - 2.33 GAA, .921 SV%, 2 shutouts
Michael Leighton, G, PHI - 1.45 GAA, .948 SV%, 3 shutouts, 6-1 record
Jonathan Toews, C, CHI - 7 goals, 19 assists, +4, 3 GWG
Mike Richards, C, PHI - 6 goals, 15 assists, +6
Patrick Kane, RW, CHI - 7 goals, 13 assists
Danny Briere, C, PHI - 9 goals, 9 assists, +4, 4 GWG
Claude Giroux, RW, PHI - 8 goals, 9 assists, +10
Patrick Sharp, C, CHI - 7 goals, 9 assists
Chris Pronger, D, PHI - 4 G, 10 A, 26 hits, 51 blocks, like 30:00 per game
Brent Seabrook, D, CHI - 3 G, 6 A, +8, 60 hits, 41 blocks
Dustin Byfuglien, RW, CHI - 8 G, 2 A, 4 GWG, 56 hits

DICE JUST CRAPPED OUT

Well we've all seen flashes of brilliance from Daisuke. And we've all seen the kind of bizarre performance he staged last night. Seriously, why does anyone swing at any pitch from this guy?

Matsuzaka walked 8 batters in 4.2 innings. He faced 24 batters, and walked a third of them. He threw 112 pitches, only 60 strikes and 52 balls. But hey, he only allowed 2 singles and no other hits.

The shortness of the outing brought in Joe Nelson, whose very entrance in a game diminishes the Sox' chance of winning by about 40%. I'm just guessing at that figure, but I dare anyone to prove me wrong.

The offense was equally inept. Bill Hall hit a solo shot in the 5th. JD Drew knocked in a run with a double in the 6th. Beltre had an RBI single back in the 4th. But the Sox hardly got any baserunners against the great Brian Bannister, then the vaunted Royals' bullpen. In fact, the KC bullpen pitched 3 perfect innings of relief.

It's difficult to be negative and pessimistic after what the Sox did in Tampa Bay and Philadelphia. But this was a vintage Daisuke disappointer. Then the bullpen couldn't keep the deficit stable. And the offense didn't do enough to win, against subpar pitching.

Tim Wakefield opposes Kyle Davies tonight.

Photo Credit:
Getty Images

WHO SHOULD THE BRUINS TRADE?

Well the obvious answer to that is Tim Thomas. He's expendable. The Bruins have a cheap, young goalie in Tuukka Rask. This is a lay-up. The Bruins need to trade Thomas for just about anything, even if it's below fair value. Other teams know the B's want to trade him, and he has a deal that will last until 2013.

As much as I love him, it would be really liberating to trade Chara, freeing up $7.5 million in cap space. But that makes him difficult to trade. Fortunately, this upcoming season will be the last year on that deal. He's a phenomenal defenseman, a Norris candidate every season, but that's too much money to spend on an individual player who isn't scoring 40 goals a year.

Do I want to get rid of Marc Savard? No. Is he tradeable? Yes! He doesn't make much money, and the Bruins have depth at center. The B's have a lot of playmaking forwards, but very few play-FINISHING forwards. Savard's an assist guy on a team devoid of goal scorers. What's the point? If the price is right, Savard is tradeable.

In fact, EVERYONE is tradeable, except Rask. It's unimaginable that any team could offer enough to get Rask, a young, successful goalie making $1.25 million. 15 Bruins made more than that this season.

I would love to see Michael Ryder traded. He's just awful. The two or three sparks of brilliance only illuminate his inconsistency. He gets $4 million. He's a member of Claude's Think Tank. The puck finds his stick, and he always tries to settle it. It could be a perfect pass or rebound, and he'll take a second to give it a think. Meanwhile, the goalie's moved into position and opposing defensemen have honed in on the puck.

The Bruins should take just about anything to dump Ryder.

So in summation, everyone but Rask can be traded. Everyone but Thomas might have to stay. Thomas has to go. Rask has to stay. Other than that, move based on what you can get.

This team needs top to bottom change, so don't be afraid to make as many deals as you can.

SOX OUT OF 4TH PLACE, INTO 4TH GEAR

Normally ascending to 3rd place is hardly something to be be proud of. But to do it by sweeping the Tampa Bay Rays on the road changes things. The Sox got yet another Quality Start as John Lackey went 6.1, allowing only 2 runs despite the 8 hits and 4 walks he allowed. He held the Rays to 1/14 with runners in scoring position.

He was helped by a Sox offense which surprisingly knocked around Matt Garza. Beltre hit 2 homers, and Ortiz hit his 10th of the season. He hit his 10th of last season on July 8th. Beltre was 4 for 6. He also had a triple, and knocked in 6 runs.

While Jason Varitek's offensive production has expectedly dissipated (he's hitting .250 in May), it's probably not coincidental that he's been a consistent presence behind the plate, and the starting pitchers have excelled. I'll reluctantly give him half of an assist for the recent quality of starting pitchers. But in the end, pitchers still have to pitch.

Sox now sit in 3rd, 3 games behind New York in the loss column, and 6 behind TB. But they host the 19-28 Royals for 4, then the barely above .500 Athletics, then they play the abysmal Orioles. So this is a good time to compile some wins and chip away at some deficits.

Matsuzaka vs. Brian Bannister tonight.

EERIE SIMILARITIES

I don't want to make a mountain out of a molehill. I don't want to sound pessimistic. But I'm noticing some alarming coincidences here. Game 3 of the Bruins/Flyers series, the B's blow Philly out of the water, and everyone assumes the series is over. Game 4, and although the Bruins are never out of it, they're never really in control. They need to score late to force an OT, but they're outplayed in that extra period, and lose. Then Game 5, the Bruins get blown out by the Flyers.

Now what matters is that the Celtics have two remaining games to avoid repeating what their ice-skating, known-for-choking counterparts did a few weeks ago.

What's scary though, is just like the Bruins losing David Krejci, the Celtics have some potential injury-related complications to deal with. Glen Davis was concussed. Rajon Rondo might be dealing with something. KG seems to be playing through something, and not playing well. And the NBA will need to rescind one of Perkins' technicals in order to keep him in the lineup.

Let's mention officiating. Game 5 was ridiculously tight, most remarkably when Perkins had two technicals called on him, which were both quite insane. He missed more than half the game, which meant a downgrade in defense, and the loss of his 3 remaining personal fouls. But was that enough to give Orlando such a lopsided win? NO! So I don't want to hear any bitching about the officiating beyond the possible Perkins suspension.

Ray Allen shooting 3/11. KG only scoring 10 points. Getting outrebounded 43 to 26. These are the kinds of reasons the Celtics lost. But also give some credit to Orlando. Howard had 21 points and 5 blocks, Nelson had 24. Reddick had 14, and the bench kept the pressure on the Celtics, combining for 38 points.

Now it was a bit freakish. The Magic came out of the gates and lit up from beyond the arc. That kind of stretch will be hard to duplicate. That gave Orlando that initial lead. All Orlando had to do was not blow it.

So the series comes back to Boston, where hopefully Kendrick Perkins will be allowed to play. He received his 6th and 7th technicals of the postseason last night, which would mean automatic suspension. Unless the NBA rescinds the calls, which they should.

But the Celtics need big men to foul Howard and limit his scoring. Sheed seems hurt, Davis definitely is hurt, and the C's are depending on the NBA to do the smart thing to allow Perkins to return. That's not a pleasant situation to be in.

Orlando has momentum, but momentum's only as good as your next shot. Unlike the Bruins, the Celtics are essentially winners. I've a reasonable amount of faith in the players in green and white. But if hurt, especially if Rondo and KG are hurt, this could be one of the ugliest springs in Boston sports history.

Game 6 Friday night.

Photo Credit:
Getty Images

WHAT SHOULD THE BRUINS DO ABOUT THEIR OWN FREE AGENTS?

Here are the soon-to-be free agents currently on the Bruins roster:

Unrestricted:
Mark Recchi, RW
Steve Begin, C
Miroslav Satan, RW
Shawn Thornton, LW
Dennis Seidenberg, D
Johnny Boychuk, D

Restricted:
Blake Wheeler, RW
Daniel Paille, LW
Vladimir Sobotka, C
Mark Stuart, D

Hindsight is 20/20, but the Bruins only signed Boychuk to a 1 year deal after he won the Eddie Shore Award in AHL Providence. The B's seem to have a habit of re-signing guys at their peak (Thomas, Wideman, Krejci, Savard, Lucic). They struggle to buy low.

The B's are negotiating with Seidenberg, which I think is very wise. Not only is he German, but he's a very solid defenseman. He's only 29, he takes care of the puck, he blocks shots, he can play the power play and penalty kill. As a partner for Zdeno Chara, he's perfect.

Boychuck is another guy I really want the Bruins to keep. But his price might go too high. I'm sure he wants to stay in Boston, where defensive hockey is really important, and where he's allowed to get involved in the offensive game. He's got a great shot for a defenseman, although he frequently takes too many shots without an adequate shooting lane.

As much as his postseason exploits endeared him to Bruins fans, they also may have garnered the attentions of too many GMs. I think his price might prove to be too high. The Bruins have depth at this position, and don't need to overpay to keep Boychuk.

Miroslav Satan will turn 37 in October. He could score 20 goals (had 9 in 38 games with the Bruins), and he dazzled the fans in the playoffs. But he's not a complete player. His finish isn't good or consistent enough to pay him like a pure scorer. I'd rather get a grinding forward for a cheaper price. Then again, if he wants to play for $700,000 again, then he's worth it.

Recchi is old. And as much as I love him, can he endure a long postseason? I don't think so. He'll show sparks, but I think his age caught up to him at the end of the Philly series, when he disappeared from the checking game. Again, keep him only if he accepts a cheap contract.

Begin is a nice 4th line center. A grinder, a checker, a guy who can help keep the puck in the offensive zone. You can move him to the wings, though. Put him on a line with Sobotka and Thornton, and that's terrifying for the opposition to face. He's also an adept penalty killer.

You can retain Shawn Thornton for low money. He's not just a fighter. He's a good checker, and is capable of handling the puck with modest skill. Still, he's the team's fists, and was the only guy who showed in heart in the Matt Cooke game. Keep him as a 4th line winger getting less than 10 minutes of ice-time.

Blake Wheeler seems like a neverending project. He has no identity as a player. He doesn't have the puck skills or reflexes to be a scorer. He doesn't play with the size or moxy of a grinder. I think you could get the same kind of production from a much cheaper player.

Daniel Paille was an emergency acquisition last year, but he's completely useless on offense. Write a "thank you note," and cut him loose.

I wish the Bruins had given Mark Stuart a contract extension instead of Andrew Ference. Stuart gets crazy eyes, he gets involved on offense, and he's aggressive on defense. What happens with Seidenberg and Boychuk will determine what should happen to Stuart. If those two guys stay, Stuart is very expendable. If neither sign, he becomes indispensable.

TRUE RUN PREVENTION

Talk all you want about infield defense, UZR, and all that mumbo jumbo. What truly prevents runs is good pitching. And that's what the Red Sox have gotten the last few days. They've beaten two very good teams on the road because of excellent starts from everyone in their rotation except John Lackey, who'll pitch tonight.

Maybe the Rays aren't a .700 team. That's kind of obvious, as a .700 winning percentage would result in a 113 win season, and as good as Tampa Bay is, they're not 113 wins good. But the Rays haven't really played anyone. 6 games against Baltimore, 6 against Seattle, 5 against Oakland, 4 against KC, 3 against the White Sox, 3 against Houston, 3 against the Angels, 3 against Toronto.

I still don't think the Sox will catch the Rays in the East. But maybe they'll catch the Yankees? The Sox are still in 4th, but only 1.5 behind the 2nd place Yankees.

Willy Aybar hit a single in the 4th. That would be Tampa Bay's only hit off Lester or anyone else. Although Lester did walk 5, and needed 111 pitches to go 6 innings, you can't do much better than that. Delcarmen, Bard, and Papelbon completed the shutout.

This was Lester's 5th Quality Start in his last 6 outings. He's allowed 7 earned runs in his last 7 starts (49.2 IP, 1.27 ERA). He's 4-0 in May. He's the Ace of the Sox staff. Or at the very least, he's The Rock. The Cornerstone.

David Ortiz will get some deserved publicity for his reemergence as an offensive force. His double knocked in both Sox runs in the 3rd. He's hitting .361 in May, and slugging .787 with 9 HR and 19 RBI.

I'm not optimistic about the excellent starts continuing, as Lackey goes tonight against Garza. But taking 2 in Tampa is huge. The Sox have played their last 7 games against 1st place teams, and are 6-1 in that stretch. That's impressive.