THIS IS THE END

Even after losing 2 of 3 to Tampa, there were some overly optimistic sunshine lovers out there who thought the Sox had a realistic shot at a playoff spot. "All they have to do is go 26-6." That was the refrain. My favorite part of that sentence is the "all they have to do" part. As if prolonged stretches of .800+ baseball were common.

The optimist would then go into the schedule, pointing out games with the likes of Baltimore. But it's been the likes of Baltimore that have kept the Red Sox well in check this season. After last night's loss, the Sox are 6-7 against the O's. The Yankees are 10-2 against Baltimore. The Rays are 9-3. The Blue Jays are 12-0.

The Sox' struggled against mediocre and bad teams have been well documented. And I've tried to think of why this might be. But I realized something last night: with a few exceptions, the Red Sox are only slightly better than a .500 team.

The Angels, the Blue Jays, and interleague play have boosted the Sox. Those are the exceptions. The norm is to be average. The Sox have winning records against 5 teams. And three of those are by only a game (4-3 against Kansas City, 3-2 against Minnesota, 4-3 against Seattle). They're .500 against 3 teams (Cleveland, Detroit, Oakland). They have a losing record against 4 teams. Let me reiterate that. Winning record against 5 opponents. Split with 3. Losing record against 4.

The Sox were 9-1 against the Angels, 11-4 against the Blue Jays, and 13-5 against NL competition. Overall, the Red Sox are 74-58 (.561). But take out the games against the afore-mentioned opponents, and they're 41-48 (.461). I had to triple check that number. 45% of the Sox' wins have come from 33% of their games. They've crushed the Angels. They've owned Toronto. And they rolled through the NL. But the norm for this team is actually below average.

This is not a good team. And the struggles against weaker opponents like Baltimore is just normal.

Why are the Sox not good? The short answer is: injuries, mediocre defense, a shabby bullpen, John Lackey's and Josh Beckett's disappointing seasons. It's not rocket science.

MANNY BEING ANNOYING

Jayson Stark of ESPN wrote a brilliant column about Manny Ramirez's various exits from city to city. And while the ranks of Manny loyalists here in Boston have dramatically dwindled the past few years, there are still some out there who wish to praise this man.

It's true, the Sox won a pair of World Series thanks in no small part to him. That's two rings more than they'd won in the previous 8 decades. Then again, it was pitching that ultimately won those titles. Manny was indeed an irreplaceable part of those Championships, but not quite as irreplaceable as Derek Lowe in '04, or Josh Beckett in '07.

We didn't hear much about Manny's antics in LA, considering it was a few thousand miles, and a separate League away. But he pulled his same crap. He was always inexplicably hurting and couldn't play. He recently got kicked out of a game for arguing balls and strikes. Can you imagine that? Manny, while in a Red Sox uniform, was more docile at the plate than JD Drew. He'd only get kicked out if he wanted to, or if he didn't care if he did.

In Stark's column, he quotes an unnamed NL executive, who makes an exceedingly poignant point about Mr. Ramirez:

How could a true Hall of Famer be whisked out of town like this in two places? Not a lot of Hall of Famers get put on outright waivers -- just take the contract and he's yours -- two different times, the first time when he's still in his prime, right? You don't see that a whole lot.

Manny's career numbers are indeed astounding. 554 homers, 1,828 RBI so far. A career average of .313, with a .411 OBP and .589 SLG (that's an even 1.000 OPS, which is 9th all-time). Then there's 29 post-season HR in only 111 games, with 78 RBI. 12 time All-Star, 9 time Silver Slugger.

Manny Ramirez, despite that female fertility drug stuff, will likely make the Hall of Fame some day. But will he perhaps have an exit from Cooperstown as dramatic as his exits from Boston and Los Angeles? I wouldn't put it past him to harass some security guard, or maybe slap a fellow inductee during the speeches when he gets in.

IS THE SEASON OVER?

Don't bury the Red Sox quite yet, but you may want to keep your schedule clear for their funeral. A heartbreaking weekend in Florida has all but sealed their fate. The Sox are now 6.5 behind the Rays and Yankees, and 7 behind in the loss column. With only 31 games remaining, they'd have to pick up one game on either team, once every four games, or about 3 games every 2 weeks. Barring a stupendous run, coupled by a collapse from either Tampa Bay or New York, it's safe to say that the Sox will see their season finish at 162 games.

I'll blame the injuries a bit for this weekend's failures. Certainly Youkilis and Pedroia would have scored some runs. Both teams pitched well, as evidenced by the 17 total runs scored in the series. The Rays just got a few more hits.

But a 162 game season isn't lost in 3 days. The Sox are now 5-9 against the Rays, their direct competitor for a playoff spot. They're also 5-7 against the Yankees.

The Sox play the Rays 3 more times. They also play the Yanks 6 more times. So there's still a glimmer of hope. But the Sox have been 23-19 since the All-Star Break. Like I said, it's not just been one bad weekend, it's been an extended period of slightly above average play.

The Sox have a day off then travel to Baltimore. Beckett faces Brian Matusz. The Sox are 6-6 against the O's this season.

But look on the bright side. It seems as though Manny Ramirez will be returning to Fenway, as a member of the White Sox. That series begins September 3rd.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

SPLIT DECISION

Doubleheaders suck. It's very difficult to win both games, especially with bullpens constructed as they are. By winning the first game, you usually use up your top relievers. It becomes doubly hard to sweep doubleheaders when you have to jostle your rotation around.

Let's start with Game #1. Josh Beckett was decent. He was great through 6, then fell apart in the 7th, yielding a pair of homers. But that's been the problem with Beckett, hasn't it? When was the last time he put together 20 solid innings in a row? I don't mean 20 innings allowing 2 runs, nothing that ridiculous. Just 20 innings, scattering some runs here and there, but being consistent.

And it's kind of sad that 6.1 innings and 3 earned runs is now considered a good start for Beckett. That being said, it's technically a Quality Start, and it's his first since August 3rd.

Now to Game 2. Mister Reliable, also known as Daisuke Matsuzaka, had to be scratched from his start against Tampa. So the Sox moved Lester back, and put Wakefield on the mound in the nightcap. Convoluted, eh? But the good news is that Lester gets to go against Tampa Bay. And honestly, even with Lester on the mound, it would've been hard to beat Felix Hernandez.

Hernandez is now 10-10. But get this, last night was his 15th straight Quality Start. 25 of his 28 starts have been Quality. You can't help but feel bad that his talents have been wasted with such a terrible team.

Anyway, it's hard to be upset at splitting a doubleheader, especially considering the strange circumstances surrounding the 2nd game. Then again, the Sox were 6-3 on a homestand against some very beatable teams. Not bad, but not good enough.

They have 3 absolutely vital games down in Tampa Bay this weekend. They must at least win 2. If they lose 2, then the Wild Card/Division is out of reach. But the Sox are 4-8 against the Rays this season.

Jon Lester opposes David Price Friday night.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

BCS BUSTERS PREVIEW*

Last year saw a BCS Bowl between two undefeated non-BCS teams. It was a convenient way for the good ole boys in the BCS to avoid embarrassment, while simultaneously pretending that the likes of Boise State and TCU don't scare them to death. Here's a preview of some non-BCS and independent teams that might make some noise this college football season.

BOISE STATE BRONCOS

BSU will wisely transfer to the Mountain West in 2011, which will make the non-BCS MWC a top 5 conference in my books. The Broncos have won 14 straight, and 26 of 27. Junior QB Kellen Moore returns after a 39 TD, 3 INT season. They're loaded at every skill position, including TE, and return 9 offensive starters. They need to figure out the alignment of their O-line, but that's the only real issue on offense. Defensively, they return 9 as well. Remember, this team held Oregon and TCU to 18 total points. Imagine, a 14-0 team returns 18 starters in an unbelievably weak conference. What do you get?

Prediction: 12-0

Key Games:
9/6 vs. Virginia Tech (Landover, MD)
9/25 vs. Oregon State
11/26 @ Nevada

TCU HORNED FROGS

Even though TCU lost to Boise State, they were also the last team to beat Boise State, in the 2008 Poinsettia Bowl. QB Andy Dalton already has 29 wins under his belt going into his senior campaign. They return 9 offensive starters, including 4/5 of their O-line. They have quality and abundance at WR and RB. Defensively, they were 6th in the country last year in scoring, and 1st in total defense. They return 7 starters, but their 4 losses were huge. Cornerback could be a very susceptible position.

Prediction: 11-1

Key Games:
9/4 vs. Oregon State (in Arlington, TX)
10/16 vs. BYU
11/6 @ Utah

BYU COUGARS

Even though TCU's lost some key defensive players, their rivals in the Mountain West have taken more significant hits. BYU welcomes a new QB, and RB Harvey Unga left the school for an "honor code violation." But they do bring back 4/5 offensive linemen, and some solid WRs. Unfortunately, only two of their defensive front 7 will be back. They also have to play TCU and Utah on the road.

Prediction: 8-4

Key Games:
9/18 @ Florida State
10/16 @ TCU
11/27 @ Utah

UTAH UTES

QB Jordan Wynn will start the season as a starter. He entered the fray midseason last year and struggled against TCU and BYU. But he excelled in the Poinsettia Bowl. 4/5 of the O-line returns, and they'll pave the way for a tandem of good backs. But the Utes have little experience at WR. The defense will need to rebuild quickly, as only 3 starters return. But they do have TCU and BYU at home this season. And TCU has never won in Salt Lake City in Mountain West play.

Prediction: 9-3

Key Games:
9/2 vs. Pittsburgh
11/6 vs. TCU
11/13 @ Notre Dame
11/27 vs. BYU

HOUSTON COUGARS

UH will once again trot out QB Case Keenum, who threw for 5,671 yards and 44 TDs. However, he threw 15 TDs, 9 in the last two games. He'll have a trio of 1,000+ yard receivers to throw to. But the Cougars will need to improve their 83rd ranked rushing offense. More importantly, they'll need to bolster what was the 95th scoring defense, and 111th total defense in 2009. The Cougars only play 3 games outside Texas, and should roll through C-USA.

Prediction: 11-2

Key Games:
9/18 @ UCLA
11/5 vs. Central Florida
11/20 @ Southern Miss
11/27 @ Texas Tech

NAVY MIDSHIPMEN

Navy were 10-4 in '09, earning their 8th straight winning season, and 8th straight Commander-in-Chief's Trophy. QB Ricky Dobbs rushed for 1,203 yards and threw for 1,031 more last year. His 27 rushing TDs set a new NCAA record for QBs. The Midshipmen averaged 280.5 rush yards a game and will look to do similarly in 2010. Their defense last year allowed the 10th fewest points in the country. But only 5 starters return, and none of the LBs have much experience. This could prove volatile in a 3-4 system. But a nice schedule, a tried and true gameplan, and some athletic players will propel Navy far in 2010.

Prediction: 10-2

Key Games:
10/2 @ Air Force
10/9 @ Wake Forest
10/23 vs. Notre Dame (in East Rutherford, NJ)
12/11 vs. Army (in Philadelphia)

NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH

The Irish start the season ranked 34th in the preseason poll. That's still overrating them. They return 5 starters from their offense, and only 1 on the line. And their offense was their strength in '09. They were 63rd in scoring defense, 86th in total last year. They'll return 7 starters, including a strong D-line, some depth at OLB, and solid safeties. But they're still wholly overrated. The ND people gloss over some glaring flaws, and overly emphasize the Irish's few strengths.

Prediction: 6-6

Key Games:
9/25 vs. Stanford
10/9 vs. Pittsburgh
10/23 vs. Navy (in East Rutherford, NJ)
11/13 vs. Utah
11/27 @ USC

Boise State will definitely crack into the BCS. TCU has an outside chance, and needs to really dominate the Mountain West. Houston has a shot too, but would need to run the table. I'll give credit to Virginia Tech, Florida State, Pittsburgh, Texas Tech, and UCLA for scheduling these teams. Extra credit to Oregon State who'll play BSU in Boise and TCU in Texas.

BIG XII FOOTBALL PREVIEW*

The Big XII remains at 12 teams in 2010. Nebraska will join the BigTen in 2011, and Colorado will join the Pac-10 in 2012. The offseason nearly saw the death of this central states Conference, as Texas and Oklahoma were courted by the SEC and Pac-10. But now it's football time again. And the traditional powerhouses will reign supreme in the conference, which has definitive upper, middle, and lower classes of teams. There are three Big XII teams ranked in the pre-season top 10, but the 4th highest ranked team is 37th nationally.

1. OKLAHOMA SOONERS

Texas is the popular pick to win the Big XII South, and then likely the Big XII title. But Oklahoma is looking good this year. Sophomore QB Landry Jones threw for 3,198 yards last season, with 26 TDs and 14 INTs. If he can stay healthy, he'll improve on that. RB DeMarco Murray also returns, although there's little depth at receiver. Only 5 defensive starters return, but Oklahoma's done a good job of reloading with talented players. The Big XII South winner will be determined in the Red River Shootout, with OU victorious.

Prediction: 11-2, Big XII South Champs, Big XII Champs

Key Games:
9/11 vs. Florida State
9/25 @ Cincinnati
10/2 vs. Texas (in Dallas)
10/23 @ Missouri
11/27 @ Oklahoma State

2. TEXAS LONGHORNS

No more Colt McCoy in Austin. Garrett Gilbert is the heir apparent, and was baptized by fire against Bama in the title game. So when the Horns start off at Rice, it should seem like a pee wee game for Gilbert. That being said, UT only returns 4 offensive starters, and they'll likely simplify their schemes, going with hard runs and a back-to-basics passing attack. They'll rely on their defense, which returns 6 starters, mostly in an excellent secondary, which is a must have in the Big XII. They'll excel, but lose to OU in the RRS. They'll likely still make a BCS Bowl.

Prediction: 11-1, 2nd in Big XII South

Key Games:
10/2 vs. Oklahoma (in Dallas)
10/16 @ Nebraska
11/13 vs. Oklahoma State
11/25 vs. Texas A&M

3. NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS

The Blackshirts are back. NU will return with a mostly intact offense, with some talent at the skill positions. However, that unit needs to improve their execution as the Huskers were 75th in scoring offense last year, and 99th in yardage. The defense lost Suh, but they're still deep and ferocious, especially up front. In a Conference loaded with powerful offenses, a shutdown defense can separate a team from the pack. Nebraska held 7 opponents to single digits last year. That's half of their games. They also have something every defensively minded team needs: an excellent, reliable, and accurate kicker. An easy non-conference schedule also helps.

Prediction: 11-2, Big XII North Champs

Key Games:
10/16 vs. Texas
10/30 vs. Missouri

4. MISSOURI TIGERS

Mizzou is a good darkhorse candidate in the Big XII North. Big Blaine Gibbert returns after a 3,593 yard, 24 TD, 9 INT season that saw him complete 59% of his passes. 4/5 of the offensive line also returns. However the Tigers need to fill some holes at WR. The defense isn't bad either. DE Aldon Smith tallied 11.5 sacks as a freshman. Although their depth on the line is worrisome. They're deep at linebacker, but have some forgettable DBs. A soft schedule to start their season will help them tie up all their loose ends.

Prediction: 10-2, 2nd in Big XII North

Key Games:
10/23 vs. Oklahoma
10/30 @ Nebraska

The remainder of the teams are listed alphabetically...

BAYLOR BEARS

QB Robert Griffin returns from an ACL injury. He amassed 2,934 total yards in '08, along with 28 TDs. The offense should be solid, but the defense will be dreadful. The Bears allowed 405.6 yards a game last year. Part of that is from playing in the Big XII, but most of it is because that unit is simply awful. They'll benefit from a soft schedule with games against Sam Houston State, Buffalo, and Rice, but they still won't attain bowl eligibility.

Prediction: 4-8

COLORADO BUFFALOES

I don't know if the Big XII will be happy to lose CU or not. On one hand, they lose a struggling program. On the other hand, they all lose a near guaranteed win. The Buffs have an experienced offense, but it wasn't a very good one. They allowed 44 sacks last season. The QB situation is a toss-up, they have no depth at RB, but they do have some good receivers. Their special teams units might be among the worst in the country. Apart from two very good CBs, their defense is air.

Prediction: 2-10

IOWA STATE CYCLONES

ISU is looking to build on a surprisingly good 7-6 season last year. They return 8 offensive starters, including RB Alexander Robson, who compiled 1,456 yards from scrimmage in '09. They're also very deep at WR. They have an inexperienced defense, but their secondary is very good. A tough schedule will keep them from winning more than 7 games, but they won't be a pushover. They have to play at Iowa, at Oklahoma, at Texas, and also host Nebraska.

Prediction: 6-6

KANSAS JAYHAWKS

The departure of QB Todd Reesing has left a vacuum at the position. There'll be a competition for the spot with no clear favorite going into the season. The Jayhawks have astounding depth at CB (8 players vying for 2 spots), some good defensive ends, but they're weak at linebacker. Their offense is poor, and their O-line is supbar. They ended 2009 with 7 straight losses, and they won't improve much in 2010.

Prediction: 6-6

KANSAS STATE WILDCATS

RB Daniel Thomas ran for 1,265 yards and 11 scores last year. He'll spearhead an offense that boasts 4 returning O-line starters. The passing game, however, is a big question mark. K-State also lost some key playmakers on defense. They have a pair of excellent safeties that will need to carry the D.

Prediction: 5-7

OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS

RB Kendall Hunter returns to Stillwater after missing 2010 due to injury. He ran for 1,553 yards and 16 TDs in '08. The Cowboys have an inexperienced O-line, only returning 1 starter. They were 31st in scoring defense last season, but only bring back 3 from that unit. This will be a rebuilding year for OSU, and the potent offenses of the Big XII will exploit that.

Prediction: 8-4

TEXAS A&M AGGIES

A&M is once again relevant. They feature an explosive and highly skilled offense. They were 5th in the country in yards and 19th in scoring last year. Although their O-line lost 3 starters. Their defense, however, is atrocious. They return 10 starters on D, so they'll likely be better. They were 105th in scoring defense, 90th against the run, 106th against the pass, 105th in total yards. They yielded 49 points to Texas, and 65 to OU.

Prediction: 8-4

TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS

The Red Raiders are a typical Big XII team. They're very talented and very deep on offense, with excellent skill position players. But their defense is susceptible. TTU was already weak on defense last year, and now they need to reload again, especially up front. They'll score points, but they'll get scored on by the big boys of the Conference.

Prediction: 8-4

SOX CLAIM DAMON OFF WAIVERS

The Red Sox put in a waiver claim for Tigers' outfielder Johnny Damon. Damon's hitting .272 with 41 RBI and 7 HRs in Detroit. However, he has a no-trade clause which includes the Red Sox, so he'd have to waive that before the Tigers and Sox could make a deal. If no deal gets done by 1:30pm Wednesday, then the Tigers can pull him off waivers.

"What we had in Boston -- I stress had, from 2002 to 2005 -- we had a special bunch of guys. And after the 2004 season, guys started leaving. And in 2005, how (Mark) Bellhorn left, how Alan Embree left, how Kevin Millar was being treated there. That's something that sticks with you. It was a totally new team."

So perhaps the way the Red Sox Front Office concocts injuries, and makes token contract offers to players on their way out has rubbed someone the wrong way.

Whatever. I don't think adding a mediocre OF/DH type would do much, especially if he barely wants to be here.

Source:
USA Today

SOX BEAT RAIN, MARINERS

Marco Scutaro had a pair of 2 run singles to lead the Red Sox in brisk, windy, rainy 6-3 win. John Lackey contributed another great start against an AL West opponent, going 8 innings, allowing 3 runs (2 earned), and striking out a season high 10.

I really don't have much to say about this game except that it's exactly what the Red Sox must do at this point. They have to beat 76 loss teams like the Mariners. They have to get excellent starting pitching, 2 out hitting (3 of the Sox' 6 runs came with 2 outs), and hitting with runners in scoring position (Sox were 3 for 6 in that situation).

Josh Beckett needs to show something tonight. He opposes David Pauley, a 27 year old with 12 career starts under his belt.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo