Sunday, August 02, 2020

Wishful thinking: The Field of Dreams Game epitomizes everything wrong with MLB's inept Covid-19 plan


Covid-19 threatens to shut down Major League Baseball's season barely 1/6 of the way through its abbreviated schedule. And yet there's still a Field of Dreams gimmick game scheduled to be played in Iowa for some reason. Why was this game kept on the schedule at all?

The fact that this game wasn't removed from the 2020 schedule is an illustration of the wishful thinking underlying, and now undermining MLB's Covid-19 plans. Compared to other sports leagues in the US and around the world, Major League Baseball's plan to avoid Covid-19 looks more like a plan designed intentionally for players to catch and spread the virus as much as possible.

There was a half-assed effort to reduce travel in the 2020 season by limiting each team's opponents. But how does forcing the White Sox and Cardinals to travel to Iowa for one game reduce travel? (Aside: it should have been the Reds instead of the Cardinals (or the initial opponent, the Yankees) to oppose the White Sox. Reds vs. White Sox would be a rematch of the 1919 World Series that Shoeless Joe played in, but that's besides the point)

The schedule change was superficial and insufficient. And this purely promotional Iowa game was kept on the schedule as an indicator of the lack of serious thought MLB put into their plan: Teams weren't isolating themselves from the public, the schedules were adjusted to minimize the number of different opponents, but there wasn't much of a change to the basics of how a baseball schedule works; with 3 game series, along with some 2 and 4 game series mixed in. And games would still be played in every team's home ballpark.

The Red Sox will play the Orioles 10 times in 3 series. That could have easily been two series of 5 in each team's ballpark. The Sox will move cities 12 times in 65 days, moving every 5.4 days. That's way too high.

Which begs the question: why are teams playing in their own ballpark at all? I get that baseball fields have more unique characteristics from park to park compared to other sports. It's hard to imagine a Red Sox season without the Green Monster, or a Yankees season without the swaths of empty executive seats behind home plate. 

But this isn't the time for sentimentalism. This isn't the time for clinging to the status quo as much as possible. There was NO evidence to suggest Major League Baseball could run a semi-normal season the way it always has, with 15 games played in 15 ballparks each night.

To save the season, baseball could make bubbles for each of its three regions, with all games held in a limited number of cities:

East: New York + DC/Baltimore (4 ballparks)
Central: Chicago/Milwaukee + Cleveland (4 ballparks)
West: LA/San Diego + Oakland/San Fran (5 ballparks)

Yes, many teams would not get to play in their empty home ballparks. Yes, there would be many cases of stadiums hosting 2 games per day (or you could play in nearby college or minor league parks). But travel would be dramatically minimized. Instead of 30 teams playing in 26 cities, with teams bouncing around them every 5 or 6 days, you'd have 10 teams playing in 2 bubbles each. The Red Sox could stay in New York for a few weeks playing the Yankees, Mets, and "hosting" other East teams, or being "hosted" by other East teams.

And no games in Iowa just for promotional reasons.

If you build the bubbles, they will stay uninfected.

Yankees take Godley deep to hell

As bad as the pitching has been, the Red Sox offense has been a bigger disappointment. I expected crap from most of the pitching staff. I didn't expect it from the offense. Since the 13 run home opener, this team has averaged 3.25 runs scored per game. They've been held to 3 runs or fewer four times. They've only scored 5+ runs twice (including that 13 run outing).

The Yankees are good. They hit lots of homeruns. That's my super hot take. Because they hit homeruns it's especially important to keep the bases as empty as possible. Which Zach Godley failed to do that in the 2nd,  and he was subsequently punished by a Gio Urshela Grand Slam, which was as close to a 2nd inning walk off as is possible.

Six hits and 2 walks for Godley in his 3.1 innings of work.

I've reached my Andrew Benintendi limit. I guess the good news is there's no way he will finish the season below .100, right? However currently he's killing the lineup. He managed a pair of walks this evening but no hits, and struck out to end the game when the Sox had a rally building in the 9th.

Man of the Game: Gio Urshela
Only had one hit but it won the game. He also walked and stole a base to ice that cake.

Honorable Mentions:
Mike Tauchman: 3 for 4, Run, 2 SBs
Aaron Judge: 1 for 3, HR, BB
Nick Nelson: 3 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 2 BB, 4 K

Shame Shares:
Zack Godley: 0.5 - 3.1 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 2 HR, 2 BB
Ownership; 0.1 - They're responsible for this
Chaim Bloom: 0.1 - So is he
Mitch Moreland: 0.1 - 0 for 4, 2 K
Alex Verdugo: 0.1 - 0 for 4, 2 K
Andrew Benintendi: 0.1 - 0 for 3, 2 K

Saturday, August 01, 2020

A Bronx Fail: Red Sox waste their talent on offense

Red Sox pitching kept the team in the game for 8 innings, but the offense slept through their at-bats as if they had bus lag from their traveling from Queens to the Bronx.

Every hit in this game was either a single or a homerun.

Michael Chavis hit a solo homerun but apart from that the Sox only mustered 4 singles and a pair of walks. They went down in order four times (1st, 2nd, 5th, and 7th). And they gave up another out on the bases, this time Pillar was caught too far off 1st on a shallow fly to right.

With this staff, there won't be too many games where they are able to stay this close with so few runs. Shame to waste it.

Man of the Game: Chad Green
In his 2 innings of relief he struck out 4 of the 6 batters he faced. He threw 29 pitches and 22 were strikes. He totally shut down the Sox for 2 innings.

Honorable Mentions:
Michael Chavis: 1 for 3, HR, some nice stretches at first
Xander Bogaerts: 2 for 3, BB, a pair of Gold Glove plays at short
Phillips Valdez: 2.2 IP, 0 ER, kept the Sox in the game
Jordan Montgomery: 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K

Shame Shares:
Ryan Weber: 0.3 - 3.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 BB
Colten Brewer: 0.2 - IP, 2 ER
Alex Verdugo: 0.2 - 0 for 4 (0 for 2 with RISP)
Kevin Pillar: 0.1 - 1 for 4, thrown out on basepaths
Rafael Devers: 0.1 - 0 for 3, GIDP
Christian Vazquez: 0.1 - 0 for 4

Friday, July 31, 2020

Red Sox are going win streaking through the quad, and then to the gymnasium (with or without green hats)

Martin Perez might be the key to Red Sox success or failure in 2020. That's an unfortunate sentence to write.

Perez, as opposed to 40% of the current Sox rotation, is a legit Major League starter. He's made 150+ starts in the bigs. He can do a decent job and his upside isn't just 3 innings and 2-3 runs, he can make Quality Starts (6 or more IP, 3 or fewer earned runs).

Can someone tell the Red Sox to please stop running into outs? Alex Verdugo especially. I understand the emotional reaction to poor pitching is to try to eke out a few extra runs. However, risking the 27 precious outs the Sox have on offense for each game with steals and extending singles just isn't worth it. Losing an out hurts more than gaining a base helps. The Sox need all the outs they have to score as many runs as possible. So top running into outs!!!

Man of the Game: Christian Vazquez
Vaz-strzemski as someone more clever than I labelled him on Twitter, has continued to carry this team. Vazquez hit 2 homeruns Thursday night, including a homer with someone on base (what a novelty). He's slugging 1.105 at this point. Vazquez is the first player with multiple Man of the Game awards in 2020.

Honorable Mentions:
Martin Perez: 5.2 IP, 5 K, and a number of those K were in big situations
Drew Smith: 1.2 perfect innings of relief, 2 K, kept the Mets in the game

Thursday, July 30, 2020

Red Sox silence Mets crowd, squeeze out 6-5 win

Seeing an actual Major League starter on the mound for the Red Sox was so refreshing. And if the Sox want to claim a playoff spot (a big if for some in the Fenway front office, and the ownership's office in Liverpool), they're going to need to win as many Eovaldi starts as possible.
The Sox fell behind 1-0 early, but unlike previous games the early damage was minimal and the starter was able to go reasonably deep into the game.

The timeliness of Red Sox hitting was nice to see, especially when facing a good opposing starter. Although I'm getting tired of all homeruns being solo homeruns. No need to social distance with the longball, let's see more 2 and 3 run shots.

Man of the Game: Christian Vazquez
Tough choice between Vazquez and Moreland. Vazquez hitting the homer put him over the top. He was 2 for 4 with 3 RBI. He's hitting .400 and slugging .867 in this young season.

Honorable Mentions:
Mitch Moreland: 2 for 4, 2B, 2 RBI
Pete Alonso: 4 for 4 (first opposing player with 2 Honorable Mentions in 2020)
Yoenis Cespedes: 2 for 5, HR

Photo credit: AP Photo/Seth Wenig

Wednesday, July 29, 2020

Minor league pitching still a major disappointment for Red Sox


If you thought minor league baseball was cancelled this year, you're wrong. It's alive and well and pitching for the Red Sox.

Matt Hall spent most of 2019 in AAA Toledo. In 25 appearances and 13 starts with the Mud Hens he had a 5.30 ERA. This was the man making a start for one of the (allegedly) premier teams in Major League Baseball. This is embarrassing.

The Red Sox have been outscored 12-1 in the first two innings of games so far. This is a direct result of having journeymen and AAA relievers as a rotation behind Eovaldi.

Some shabby Sox baserunning added to the variety of uninspiring play: Pereza getting thrown out trying to extend a wall ball single, Benintendi for some reason not staying on second base during a bizarre play. I don't blame Benintendi for not knowing what was going on, but in that situation the smart thing to do is stay on the base.

Just a note about Covid-19 before getting into Man of the Game and Shame Shares: the travel schedules for these teams are far too traditional. Why are there 2-game series at all? Why not have more 4-game and maybe even 5-game series? Trips to Philly should have been combined with trips to New York or Baltimore. You could get creative and do a trip that was Tampa Bay-Miami-Tampa Bay to keep travel limited.

Man of the Game: JD Davis
His 2-run homer in the 5th changed the complexion of the game. He also added an outfield assist in the 1st. He was 2 for 3.

Honorable Mention:
Kevin Pillar: 3 for , 2 doubles

Shame Shares:
Matt Hall: 0.3 shares - 2.2 IP, 3 ER
Austin Brice: 0.2 shares - 1.2 IP, 2 ER
Ryan Brasier: 0.1 share - IP, 3 ER
Ownership: 0.1 share
JD Martinez: 0.1 share - 0 for 4, 2 Ks
Xander Bogaerts: 0.1 share - 0 for 4
Jackie Bradley Jr.: 0.1 share - 0 for 4, 0 for 2 with RISP

Tuesday, July 28, 2020

Red Sox remain consistent by allowing 7 runs again

On the bright side, at least the Red Sox aren't keeping any of us up late with nail-biting late inning tension. These games are over so early, we'll all be getting to bed by 8pm each night.

Part of me feels bad for these third tier pitchers the Sox are forcing to take the mound. Josh Osich has never started a Major League game. He's only started twice in eight years of minor league ball. It's not like he's been an exceptional reliever either. And so the Red Sox put him on the hill to face a team that hit the 5th most homeruns in the NL last year? Strategy. Value. Great product, guys.

Can you give any blame to Osich for the loss? Technically yes, but is it really his fault? If the Sox had put Devers on the mound, or me, or Dr. Fauci, would you blame the person on the mound or the person who put them there?

I'm tempted to give Osich an Honorable Mention for his start, just for not giving up a run in the 1st inning the way Perez and Weber did.

By the way, Jon Lester pitched 5 no-hit innings for the Cubs Monday night.

Man of the Game: Michael Wacha
Wacha allowed his share of baserunners but he never seemed to be under threat. He made big pitches in big situations and was very much in total control of the game. The Sox hit a pair of homers, but they were solo shots.

Honorable Mentions:
Zack Godley: 4 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Pete Alonso: Missile homerun that ricocheted off the Monster
Michael Conforto: Bomb homerun deep into the RF bleachers
Dominic Smith: Howitzer homerun deposited in the bullpen

Shame Share:
Josh Osich: 0.2 shares - 2 IP, 2 ER
Ownership 0.3 shares - Not having enough SPs
Chaim Bloom 0.3 - Not having enough SPs
Jeffrey Springs: 0.2 shares - 1.1 IP, 5 ER

Monday, July 27, 2020

Red Sox look O-ful against O's

Baseball is back! And the Red Sox dropped 2 of 3 to a team that lost 67% of the time in 2019. What do you expect when your game 2 starter had an ERA over 5 last year, your game 3 starter has struggled to get out of AAA, your leadoff hitter might not be a leadoff hitter, and you let your best player go with hardly any effort to keep him?

I'm bringing back a Boston Blood Sox tradition: The Man of the Game award, along with Honorable Mentions, and Shame Shares. Quick definitions:

Man of the Game: The best performing player on either team. The player who changed the game the most (in a good way).

Honorable Mention: Noteworthy performances for either team.

Shame Shares: For Red Sox losses, the distribution of responsibility for the loss. So let's say Martin Perez was 50% responsible for Saturday's loss, he gets 0.5 of a shame share (0.5 of the loss).

I'll keep track throughout the season so you can so who are the heroes, and who is dragging the team down.

Game 1: Red Sox 13, Orioles 2
This was almost a flawless victory. The Sox amassed 17 hits, including 8 doubles, and added 7 walks. Every starter reached base at least once. Nathan Eovaldi didn't need many of the 13 runs in his 6 solid innings of work.

Man of the Game: Kevin Pillar
In his Red Sox debut Pillar was 3 for 5 with a double and 3 RBI. He also robbed the O's of an extra-base hit in the 1st.

Honorable Mentions:
JD Martinez: 3 for 5, 3 RBI
Nathan Eovaldi: 6 IP, 1 ER
Jackie Bradley Jr.: 3 for 4, 2 RBI
Jose Peraza: 4 for 5, 2 RBI

Game 2: Orioles 7, Red Sox 2
The Sox lost, but more importantly Xander Bogaerts got half a day off, which is perhaps worth a loss. Sarcasm. Martin Perez nearly got out of a 1st inning jam with no damage at all, but allowed a 2-out double on a juicy sinker to Renato Nunez. After another rough inning, Perez settled down and the Sox scored a pair in the 6th to give themselves some hope, but then Dylan Covey gave up a pair of runs right back and murdered that hope.

Man of the Game: Hanser Alberto
I wanted to award this to someone else, someone who didn't forget how many outs there were. But Alberto played a key part in all three of the Orioles' rallies, ending up 3 for 5 (with all three hits impacting the game), with a double, an RBI, and two runs.

Honorable Mentions:
Miguel Castro: 0.1 IP, 3 pitches, 3 strikes, K in a potentially game-changing situation
Alex Verdugo: 3 for 4
Jackie Bradley Jr.: 2 for 4, 2 nice catches in center
Alex Cobb: 5.1 innings, 1 earned run, 6 K

Shame Shares:
Martin Perez: 0.5 shares - 5 ER in 5 IP
Dylan Covey: 0.2 shares - 2 ER in 2 IP
Andrew Benintendi: 0.1 share - 0 for 5, 2 Ks
Rafael Devers: 0.1 share - 0 for 5, 4 Ks
Jose Peraza: 0.1 share - 0 for 4

Game 3: Orioles 7, Red Sox 4
More bad pitching, this time Ryan Weber got grilled. Nothing is more discouraging than starting the game in a hole. Except maybe having a bullpen so bad that no lead ever feels safe. Both teams hit 2 homeruns each, but the difference was both Orioles homeruns came with a runner on, the Sox homers were solo shots.

Man of the Game: Anthony Santander
He hit a homerun and robbed a homerun in the same inning, both in right field. He also scored a run in the 3rd after working a leadoff walk. And he took a single away from JD Martinez in the 6th which might have kept the Sox from having a much bigger inning.

Honorable Mentions:
Christian Vazquez: 2 for 4, HR, CS
Jose Iglesias: 4 for 5, 2 doubles

Shame Shares:
Ryan Weber: 0.7 shares - 3.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 BB, 2 HR
Austin Brice: 0.1 shares - 1 IP, 1 ER
Jose Peraza: 0.1 share - 0 for 4, GIDP
Alex Verdugo: 0.1 share - 0 for 4, 2 Ks

With the condenses schedule, each game is worth almost 3 times as much, so this is like losing 6 games to the Orioles. But with expanded playoffs it's like the regular season is only half as important. So the Sox essentially have a record of 1.5 wins and 3 losses.