WIN PREVENTION

"Run Prevention" was the phrase bandied about by the Sox' Front Office before the 2010 season. And while the supposedly excellent defense has been average (7th best fielding percentage in AL, 14th in MLB), it's been the bullpen that has been preventing wins instead of runs.

Friday night, the Red Sox inexcusably blew an 8-2 lead. Josh Beckett was the ringleader of the collapse, but it was an entire cast of relievers that kept pouring out of the bullpen like clowns out of a Volkswagen.

Sunday afternoon, Daisuke was the victim. He had a hard-luck loss after going 6.2 innings. I don't pity Matsuzaka. He got plenty of fortunate wins in '07. But the bullpen allowed Texas to pull away, just as the Sox' bats were coming to life. Delcarmen allowed a homerun, turning a 2-0 game to 5-0. The Sox promptly scored 3. Then Bowden let the Rangers score 2 more.

Injuries have plagued this edition of the Red Sox, but not nearly as much as their 2 man bullpen. And even the duo of Bard-Papelbon have been far from infallible. Bard blew his 5th save of the season on Friday, and Papelbon's blown a career high 6 already.

Building a bullpen is difficult. It helps to have starters go deep into games (this was only Daisuke's 4th longest start of the season). It helps to have an offense that can create big leads, so you can save your closer and top set-up guys. But honestly, there are 2 current bullpen members I'd like to see wearing a Sox uni in 2011. That's it.

The Sox end a 5-5 road trip on a sour note. They didn't lose much ground. But the clock is ticking, and they need to be gaining ground. They're now 5 behind Tampa Bay, 6 in the loss column. There's also the White Sox to worry about, only 1.5 behind the Red Sox.

A 9 game homestand begins Tuesday night, as the Angels, Jays, and Mariners come to town. These are 3 very beatable teams, and the Sox need to win 6 or 7 of these games.

Buchholz faces 11-7 Jered Weaver Tuesday night.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

FIRST IMPRESSIONS

The first pre-season game is about as meaningful as the day of training camp preceding it. The opponents aren't really focused on beating you. They haven't studied you, haven't focused on you, haven't devised a gameplan to exploit your weaknesses and avoid your strengths. It's a scrimmage in a Stadium. Not much more.

Julian Edelman was the standout offensive performer. He caught 6 passes for 90 yards. Everyone touts Edelman as a stopgap replacement for Welker. He's not, folks. Welker is one in a trillion. But I would like to see Edelman as a 4th receiver in a bunched up kind of 4 WR formation. Welker on one side, Edelman on the other. They could run some interesting routes that would give Brady two outlets, and really mess with the opposing defense's coverages.

Aaron Hernandez has had an impressive camp, and looked good last night. He's athletic, and knows how to use every ounce of the speed he has. The Pats haven't had reliable tight-end play since the Fauria era.

The running game looked good last night. But Maroney has to do a lot more to convince me that he's worth a roster spot. We've seen him have good games before. It's the consistency. And that's priority #1 with a running game.

The defense contained the vaunted Saints offense, especially when the starters were in there. But as I mentioned above, it's not like the Saints schemed anything to play the Pats. They, like the Patriots, are evaluating their own strengths and weaknesses.

Darius Butler is too undisciplined to be a truly reliable CB.

It's hard to get any accurate assessment from this game, especially on the defensive side. The Patriots defense was statistically good last year, allowing the 5th fewest points in the NFL. But it was a matter of when and how those points were allowed. The Patriots didn't come up with the big stops in pivotal and pressured situations. There are no pivotal or pressured situations in pre-season.

Photo Credit:
Getty Images

PAPELBLOWN... AGAIN

With all the injuries the Sox have endured this season, and with a Wild Card berth just now in grasp, they need all their star players to perform like star players. Jonathan Papelbon failed to do so last night.

John Lackey had a great start, going 8 innings, allowing 3 earned runs, and keeping his pitch count down. You can understand why Francona pulled him after allowing a homerun in the 9th, but it was still one of Lackey's best outings of the season.

Then Papelbon... well, what else can you say except that he blew it.

This was his 6th blown save of the season. That's matching a career high. It was his 5th loss, a new career high. He's allowed 6 homeruns, a new career high. He's allowed 13 doubles, a new career high. His 3.26 ERA is 1.21 higher than his career ERA, and nearly a run higher than his highest season's ERA.

His WHIP is actually the same as it was last year, at 1.15. But he skated around trouble in '09. In 2010, he's been unable to do that.

Now it's silly to replace Papelbon with Bard at this point. Papelbon is still a very good closer. But he's not great, folks. That yokels who'd started to compare him with Mariano Rivera are strictly morons. And most closers don't maintain that near unhittable quality to them. It's unnatural for any pitcher but guys like Rivera to remain that flawless.

I'd say Papelbon is a low Top 10 closer these days. Not a liability, but it's not a guarantee in the 9th anymore. And when his contract comes up, I won't weep if the Sox replace him with a cheaper Top 10 closer.

The Sox face the Rangers tonight in Arlington. Beckett opposes Tommy Hunter (9-1, 3.01 ERA, yikes).

In other news, Kevin Youkilis was at the pre-season Pats game last night, looking very forlorn.



Photo Credits:
AP Photo

NICE AND EASY

Jacobey Ellsbury, Marco Scutaro, and Ryan Kalish went hitless. That's about all that went wrong for the Sox last night, as they cruised to a 10-1 victory behind Clay Buchholz's arm and Bill Hall's bat.

Buchholz has truly been the Ace of this staff. He has the lowest ERA in the League at 2.49. He's tied for 4th in Wins with 13. And a lower WHIP than Sabathia or Price. I think he should at least be considered for the Cy Young, even though his 86 strikeouts are only 38th in the AL. More importantly, he's been reliable, steady, and capable of going 7+ innings. And with the Sox' bullpen, that makes him especially valuable.

The Sox abused Shawn Marcum, then the Blue Jays bullpen. The 10 runs was the most the Sox have scored since July 9th, when they tallied 14, also against Toronto. The afore mentioned Hall was the biggest hitter. He cranked 2 homeruns, went 3 for 5, and knocked in 4. Drew and Beltre also homered.

With the Rays losing, the Sox are now only 3.5 games behind them for the Wild Card. That makes those losses to Cleveland sting even more.

John Lackey will try to complete the sweep this afternoon at 12:30. He opposes Brad Mills, who's `1-0 with a 4.09 ERA in 2 starts this season.

Photo Credit:
AP

I'LL TAKE THE W

It wasn't the prettiest of Wins, but you can't complain about victory at this point of the season. Daisuke was his typically odd self, requiring 110 pitches to get 17 outs. It was his 8th non-Quality Start. It wasn't awful, but it did mean the Sox had to rely on Felix Doubrant. I know I'm critical of starters whenever they fail to get the ball to Bard-Papelbon, but 5.2 innings is insufficient. And 4 runs in such a short start is also dangerous. Thankfully the Sox got to Romero, then Shawn Camp.

Jacoby Ellsbury has seemingly settled back into the groove. It's almost tempting to keep him in the 9 spot since he's done so well down there. And the pitch-count working Drew might be better suited as a #2 hitter than a #5 or $6.

Tonight brings a very nice pitching matchup as Buchholz opposes 10-5 Shawn Marcum.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

SALVAGE OPERATION

The Red Sox needed a win yesterday afternoon. They needed guys like Lester and Ellsbury to emerge from their respective funks. And they got what they needed.

Lester took the mound having not logged a Quality Start since July 18. But he gave the Sox 6.1 innings of scoreless work. He slowed down as the game progressed, which still has me somewhat concerned that this season is getting too long for him, but he got deep enough to give the ball to Bard. I felt like Francona pulled him at precisely the right moment, just as the top of the Yankees' order was coming up again.

Ellsbury got his first hit since May 23rd. He also walked, got hit by a pitch, and stole 4 bases. That tripled his season total in one afternoon, and equaled a Red Sox record for SBs in one game.

Before we get too giddy, we do have to remember that the Sox are 4-4 in their last 8. Their infield defense has looked atrocious. The offense was 1/8 with runners in scoring position yesterday. This team has a two man bullpen. But things aren't as doom and gloom as they seemed yesterday morning.

The Sox have a difficult and vital stretch of games ahead of them. They go up to Toronto for 3, then go down to Texas for 3. The Blue Jays have been hot, winning 7 of their last 10, and they're only 4 games behind the Sox. And the Rangers have a stranglehold on the AL West.

Matsuzaka opposes 9-7 Ricky Romero, who has a 3.37 ERA. As happy as this latest win over New York has made me, I have a bad feeling about this road trip.

IS THE AL EAST BEYOND REACH?

The Red Sox are very close to being officially out of the race for the East. Last night the Yankees tapped Josh Beckett for 11 hits, while the Sox offense made Dustin Mosely look like someone who wasn't 28 with under 200 career innings of MLB experience. And the Sox weren't exactly in full run prevention mode on defense, as two errors made Beckett's job even harder.

Josh Beckett is not an Ace. He's too inconsistent. He wasn't smashed around last night, but the Yankees regularly got solid contact off him. There were errors, but 11 hits is 11 hits is 11 hits.

Jacoby Ellsbury still has yet to get a hit since coming off the DL. I'd like for Francona to drop him to 9th until he gets some sort of rhythm.

If the Sox lose this afternoon, then it'd be an 8 game deficit. That's not impossible to close with nearly 50 games left, but it's very unlikely, especially with no Youkilis or Pedroia.

What really hurts is that the Sox are missing a chance to gain ground on the Rays. Tampa Bay's lost 5 in a row, but the Sox haven't been able to gain much ground on them for the Wild Card.

We need to see something special from Jon Lester this afternoon. He faces 13-4 Phil Hughes at 2.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

HIGHS AND LOWELLS

The day started with bad news, as Kevin Youkilis was placed on the DL. But the silver lining was that Mike Lowell was waiting in the wings. And before the fans at Fenway could sit down from the standing ovation they gave Lowell, he'd hit the ball out of the park.

That's the sentimental story of this game. The more concrete story was Josh Beckett's superb outing. He went an efficient 8 innings, only needing 103 pitches to do so. He struck out 8, walked none (I love seeing that 0 under BB in box scores), and allowed 3 hits. One of those hits was a solo homerun, but that's all Cleveland could manage.

With all the injuries, the struggles to score consistently, and the downright crappy bullpen; the Sox need to win with excellent starting pitching. Josh Beckett is a key part of that winning equation. He's been a very inconsistent variable the past few seasons, but if he can give the Sox 10 really good starts down the stretch, then there's a chance.

11-6 Jon Lester faces 3-10 Justin Masterson tonight.