It was just a bit overshadowed yesterday in the NFL but the Buffalo Bills acquired former Patriots DE Mark Anderson. And the Bengals picked up RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis.
Anderson tied with Andre Carter for the team lead in sacks with 10 last year. Which was a pleasant surprise from the 28 year old, who had never accumulated more than 5 sacks in a season since his rookie year. The Bills reportedly signed him to a 4 year deal worth $27.5 million. As well as he did last year, I'm not sure he's worth close to $7 million a year.
The Bills now have two serious pass rushing threats. And I think that's a good plan. It's a passing League and the best way to stop an opponent passing is to stop the passer. They are building a team that will be problematic for the Patriots.
Win or lose, the Bills at least have a plan. Unlike the Jets who just have impulses and urges that they act on without thinking things through.
The Patriots also lost their leading rusher. Green-Ellis signed a 3 year deal with Cincinnati. He rushed for 11 TDs last year, and 667 yards. Platooning in the backfield, he had 41% of the Patriots carries. Most importantly, he never put the ball on the ground.
Only in New England could the home team lose its leading pass rusher and leading rusher, and everyone seem unfazed. Most fans would be irate.
Maybe we do place too much trust in Belichick to find replacements. Then again, he found Carter, and found Ellis. Neither of which were expected to lead an NFL team in anything. He'll find others.
Vegas favors the Patriots by 2.5 to 3. Which seems a little strange. The Pats were 13-3, and were the AFC's #1 seed. The Giants went 9-7, and were the NFC's 4th seed, even though they had the 6th best record. Of course, the Giants beat the Patriots 24-20 at Gillette Stadium in early November.
I don't want to play the underdog card too much here. As I said, Vegas is favoring the Patriots. Which means people are putting their money behind the Patriots. But the fact that questions like "Would you rather have Eli or Brady?" are being asked at all seems a little weird to me.
The Giants appear to match up well against the Patriots. They have a strong 4 man pass rush that can pressure Brady but also leave 7 men in coverage. On the other side of the ball, the Patriots have the 31st passing defense, allowing 293.9 yards per game in the air. The Giants have a good QB, with a bevy of weapons for him to throw to. Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham, and tight-end Jake Ballard who caught a TD against the Pats in November.
As bad as the Patriots' pass-defense has been, people don't seem to be noticing how bad the Giants are at defending against the pass. The Giants are 29th in yards allowed. Opposing QBs have an 86.1 rating against the Giants. What is the QB rating for Patriots' opponents? 86.1. Isn't that funny.
And since when has Eli Manning become an elite QB? I heard one pundit say that Eli's success is due to his not making mistakes anymore. Really? Doesn't make mistakes anymore? He threw 16 picks this year, 7th most in the NFL. He threw 25 picks last year.
He's been excellent in the postseason so far, with 8 TDs, only 1 INT, and a 103.1 rating. But his whole career has been defined by inconsistency. And he was hardly dazzling back in November against the Pats.
The Patriots lost that game because Brady wasn't as good as he should have been. They lost because they made mistakes like missing a 27 yard field goal. They lost because they turned the ball over 4 times. Brady threw 2 interceptions and fumbled. Edelman muffed a punt. The Giants scored 10 points off turnovers.
Eli Manning is the best QB that the Patriots will face in these playoffs. But he doesn't scare me. The November game was actually one of the better games played by the Pats' defense. People are talking about Ahmad Bradshaw not playing in that game and how much it helps the Giants that he's back. But the Giants were 32nd in the NFL in rushing for a reason. Bradshaw rushed for 3.9 per carry this year, and never once eclipsed 60 yards in a game.
And to be blunt, rushing the ball against the Patriots is doing their defense a huge favor.
This game comes down to one person. And his name is Tom Brady. How he throws, and how he's protected, and how he executes will determine if the Patriots win or lose. I know I've been saying it all year, but it is all about Brady, Brady, Brady.
The Patriots beat the Ravens without a fully effective Tom Brady. They won't be able to pull the same rabbit out of the hat twice. Brady needs to have a good game for the Patriots to win. And if he has a great game, the Patriots will win. No matter what Eli does against the Pats' defense.
One thing that unnerves me is that for the past few years Brady's tried to force the play in big games. He's thrown into double coverage with no margin for error. For example: that deep ball in the Ravens game intended for Slater. No need to try to be that perfect in one throw. He needs to realize that it's better to throw a couple good passes instead of forcing yourself to throw one absolutely perfect one. Because if a good pass is off, it's incomplete. If the attempted perfect pass is off, it's an interception.
I think Brady and the offense will execute on Sunday. At the very least, they won't turn the ball over as easily as they did in November.
Gronkowski's health will play a huge part in the Patriots' offense. He caught 8 passes in that November game. He's Brady's #1 target in the Red Zone, and he's a good receiving option to have if Brady is getting hurried. When Brady needs to press the panic button, he can throw to Gronkowski's general direction and Gronk will haul it in. If he's healthy.
Let's not forget about Wes Welker, though. Welker would have been Super Bowl MVP in 2008 had the Patriots been able to hang on. He caught 11 passes in that game. He caught 9 passes for 136 yards in November. He also had a 13 yard run. He will have a big game on Sunday.
The Giants are vulnerable against the run. They allowed 121.3 yards per game on the ground, 19th in the NFL. In November, BenJarvus Green-Ellis ran well at the start of the game, 52 yards on 12 carries. Then for some reason Ridley and Woodhead got more of the carries. They didn't do as well (combined 10 carries for 36 yards). This might have been due to Ellis' health, or might have simply been a play-calling mistake.
Look for Ellis to get the ball with regularity on Sunday. Not only do the Giants give up chunks of rushing yards, but a strong run can also slow down and wear out a pass-rush. Then of course comes play-action. Ellis can also become an outlet receiver, chipping a lineman then sitting in the middle of the field or the flat for a safe pass. J.R. Redmond style.
Brady will not look at Ochocinco unless he's clearly on the good side of a mismatch.
In the November game, Brady targeted Ochocinco 5 times. This was before we all accepted the fact that Ochocinco is not a significant part of the offense. It was Game #8. In the first 8 games of the season, Brady targeted Ochocinco 21 times. In the 10 games since then, Brady's targeted him 11 times. So from 2.6 targets per game down to 1.1.
Why is that a good thing? Because it demonstrates that the Patriots have adjusted their offense. Ochocinco was thrown to at key moments in that November game. And it didn't go well. Now, he won't be. Brady will be looking for someone else.
One thing this offense has done remarkably well this season is adjust, adapt, and evolve. Adjust to coverages, adjust to pass pass rushes, adjust to Ochocinco's inability to adjust, and so on. The Patriots didn't adjust back in 2007, they simply kept hammering away at the same thing the same way.
They've adjusted since November. The Pats have won 10 straight since that game. The Giants are 6-5 since that game. Yet somehow they've been billed as the red hot team. And give credit to them for their playoff wins. But they are prone to inconsistency.
I think the Patriots' offensive line will man-up and slow down the Giants enough for Brady to find open receivers. We can talk about schemes and strategies all we want, but football usually comes down to one group of guys outplaying another group of guys. It'll be up to the Pats' offensive linemen to protect Brady and make holes for Ellis.
I think BJGE will also slow down the pass rush and set-up a few 2nd & 2 situations. Eli will put up a few TDs, but he'll throw a pick or two. The Giants will score, and will have one or two painfully unstoppable drives. But they won't keep up with the Pats.
Well, technically, I should say this isn't 2008 when Super Bowl XLII was played. Then again, it still isn't 2007 either. It's 2012.
Anyway, this isn't the same Patriots team that lost that Super Bowl to the Giants. Nor is this the same Giants team. Some key figures have returned. Belichick and Coughlin. Brady and Manning. Welker, Tuck, and a few others. But only 7 Patriots from that 18-1 team are still on the roster. Only 15 Giants are still on their roster.
The team's are fundamentally similar to their 2007 versions. The Patriots have a high scoring, high flying, pass heavy offense. They had 5 offensive starters named to the Pro Bowl. The Giants have a ferocious pass rush, and a QB who is now recognized as clutch, if not as flashy as guys like Brees, Rodgers, and Brady.
So will we get the same kind of game? Will Brady have 0.2 seconds to get rid of the ball. Will there be a new David Tyree? Will Devin McCourty see a ball fly just over his fingertips?
I think the game will be just as close as Super Bowl XLII. But the Patriots are different. For one thing, they have BenJarvus Green-Ellis and not Laurence Maroney. Maroney's hesitation and dance moves in the backfield frequently led to negative plays in Super Bowl XLII. BJGE will at least get to the line of scrimmage, maybe a few yards past it, and maybe he can help set-up play-action, maybe force the Giants' line to respect the run, and maybe give Brady some time.
The Patriots' offense is more dynamic than it was in 2007. It isn't just vertical passes to Moss with Welker as the outlet. Now the Patriots throw underneath to their WRs, and deep to their tight-ends. In 2008, Wes Welker caught 11 of Brady's 30 completions. Brady didn't complete a single pass longer than 20 yards, thanks to the Giants' pressure.
The passing game is more diverse now. Brady completed 0 passes to his tight-ends in 2008. That's just slightly different from what the Pats have done in 2012. It's also why Rob Gronkowski's health is such a big story this week. If Gronkowski can help Brady as an outlet, especially if the Giants send all 4 linemen at Brady, and leave Gronk covered by linebackers without chipping him at the line, the Patriots can move the ball at will.
Cartoon by Larry Johnson
But while the Pats offense is now more flexible, their defense has gotten significantly worse since 2007. They were an old crew back then. Now they're young, riddled with injuries, and loaded with subpar talent.
There are playmakers like Wilfork and Spikes. Then there is Julian Edelman playing as a slot corner, and Matthew Slater as a safety. And Devin McCourty getting neck cramps as he watches balls fly over his head to the receiver who has just smoked him. His nickname should be Parliament Light he's smoked so easily.
The Giants are no longer a surprise success story. Eli Manning is being touted as one of the NFL's clutch QBs. And it's hard to argue against that. a 7-3 playoff record is a 7-3 playoff record. And 5 of those wins came on the road. How is it that Eli and the Giants have found such playoff success, while rarely being considered elite during the regular season?
Some might say that they're clutch. I'm going to say that they're inconsistent.
The Giants are capable of brilliant stretches, like their last 5 games (all wins), or their 6-2 start of the 2011 season, or their 2007 playoff run, or their 12-4 record in 2008. But they're also capable of some painfully frustrating stretches. They lost 4 straight this year, and 5 out of 6. They lost their playoff game in 2008, after their 12-4 record. They missed the playoffs in 2009 and 2010.
Eli Manning is 7-3 in playoff games. He's had some good ones. Some bad ones. He'll be up against a porous Patriots defense that will let him accumulate yards by the dozen. But I'm not quite convinced that he's Mr. February.
There's a significant psychological difference between this Super Bowl and Super Bowl XLII: The Patriots won't have the pressure of playing for 19-0. And this season they've been playing for something a bit more meaningful, and that's the memory of Myra Kraft.
These are not the same teams that met in 2008. The Patriots' offense is more versatile. But the defense is also more bendable. So maybe the game will be just as close, only with a few more points on the board.
If you were to compare the Patriots' offense to cuisine, you could say that it's normally like gourmet Filet Mignon served in a classy restaurant. On Sunday, the Pats' offense was more like hamburgers and sausages served at a greasy diner. The Patriots actually ran the ball more than they passed it (35 compared to 33). And they ran the ball well.
The Jets might have been expecting a pass-heavy game, but what they got was a heaping helping of BenJarvus Green-Ellis. He ran for 136 and 2 TDs. He averaged 5 per carry, and if he wasn't able to get the job done, then the Pats' gameplan simply wouldn't have worked.
Before I gush on and on about a nice win against our arch-rival, let's think about a few things: Were the Jets even close to being on the same level as the Patriots? Nope
Did the Patriots clearly outplay the Jets and did the Patriots seem to have a superior gameplan? Yes and yes.
So why was this a 6 point game halfway through the 4th? Why was it a 3 point game at halftime?
The Patriots were undoubtedly the better team Sunday, which is good. The Jets are 2-3, with an offense that's not rushing the ball well and a QB that can't be counted on (even by his head coach). But mistakes allowed the Jets to hang in there.
Aaron Hernandez not being able to hang on to a touchdown pass. He's got some ball control issues. I wouldn't go so far as to say that it's a problem, but there have been too many times when he'll be downed, then the ball will pop loose. And on a team that never ever fumbles, stuff like that stands out.
The Patriots were an instant replay review from another Red Zone turnover. The refs got the call right, but Branch was still very close to catching a ball then fumbling it.
Then there's the big kickoff return. That's usually a Patriots' strength, but the timing of that return was like life support to a dying patient. The Jets were on the ropes, that return gave them new life.
I'm not trying to be a downer. The Patriots are 4-1, they're tied for first in the AFC East. They're clearly better than the Dolphins and Jets at the moment, and they now have a running game to go along with that vaunted passing attack. This team's biggest problems are their own mistakes. That's fixable. And to end on a positive note, if these problems do get fixed, they'll be very, very dangerous.
This game felt like the preseason. Even the weather was warm, at least for January. There was nothing at stake, a few players didn't even dress (Welker, Branch, Hernandez), and the starters weren't expected to play the full 60 minutes.
I approved of Bill Belichick's usage of Tom Brady and other key players in this game. The more worrisome Pats fans out there were concerned that there'd be a repeat of last year's Welker injury. But with a first round bye secured, it's kind of silly to sit players for 3 weeks.
I'm sure the practices weren't as rigorous this past week. And when Brady was in the game, the play-calling was run heavy, and there were few long passes. He got hit a few times. But survived.
Danny Woodhead may have suffered a concussion. He may not have. As of now, the Pats are only saying he has a "head injury."
BJG Ellis surpassed the 1,000 yard mark. I'm convinced that Belichick went for it on 4th & 16, just so Ellis could reach 1,000, then be pulled from the game. Ellis is the Pats' first 1,000 yard rusher since Corey Dillon in '04. His contributions this season have been invaluable.
There were many positives to take from this game, but much like after a big preseason win, it's important to keep things in perspective. Julian Edelman's afternoon, for instance, was world class. Will he do that against an elite team, that's playing an important game? It's difficult to gauge performances in a game like this.
The Patriots have 2 weeks off, and will host a Divisional Round game on Sunday the 16th, at 4:30 PM. They'll play either the Jets, Ravens, or Chiefs. Here are the scenarios:
The Patriots will play the Jets if the Jets beat the Colts on Saturday. No matter what happens in the other AFC playoff game. If the Jets win, they come up to Foxborough as the 6th seed. Simple as that.
If the Jets lose, then the Patriots will play the winner of the Ravens/Chiefs game, which will be played Sunday afternoon.
This was one of the easier games the Patriots have won all season. Probably the easiest. The Bills did just about everything they could to lose this game by 84 points.
It started early. The Bills drove down the field to begin the 1st quarter, running the ball well, cutting into the Pats' secondary like a burning chainsaw through chocolate. The Bills rushed for 67 yards on that opening drive, on 7 carries (9.6 per carry). Then they got into the red zone, tried a few passes that failed, then kicked a field goal.
The Bills soon got the ball back. And after their 67 yard rushing, 0 yard passing drive, they went 3 and out with 3 straight passes and 3 straight incompletions. Thanks for the favor.
And while the Bills' tactics were moronic, the Patriots' were simple, but effective. They ran the ball. A lot. The Pats amassed 217 yards on the ground, and got 12 of their 19 first downs by rushing. BJG Ellis ran for 104, Woodhead got 93, even Brady rushed for 13.
Then came the turnovers. Then more turnovers. Then more turnovers. The Pats left a few points on the field, especially Wes Welker, but it didn't matter. You can't turn the ball over 7 times and expect to be in the game. The Patriots cruised to victory, clinching the AFC East, clinching a bye, clinching home-field advantage.
This is the Patriots' 13th divisional title, and their 8th under Brady-Belichick. This will be the first time they've secured the #1 seed since 2007.
The Jets lost, but backed into the playoffs thanks to Washington beating the Jags.
The Pats host the Dolphins Sunday afternoon. Don't expect to see a scrub team out there, as Belichick's philosophy has always been to favor reps over rest. And with the bye secured, there's not much of a need for rest.
I was wrong about the Bears and the weather being something to worry about. The Patriots seemed to thrive in the snow, while the Bears wallowed in it. The Pats became the first team in the NFL to clinch a playoff berth, and took huge strides toward winning the AFC East.
Since halftime on Thanksgiving, the Patriots have outscored their opponents 116-17. That's simply staggering.
Last night, Brady had a few tipped passes that could have been intercepted, and a few field goals could have easily been touchdown drives. But I'm nit-picking. You just have to sit back and say that over the last 10 quarters, the Patriots have played amazing football.
Brady threw for a season high 369 yards, in the snow, in the wind.
Wes Welker is back to 100%. We were all worried that without Moss, he'd struggle. His 8 receptions for 115 yards disputes that notion. He's caught 36 passes in the last 5 games, and is back to being a favorite target of Brady.
Branch is the other favorite target. He also had 8 catches, for 151 yards and a TD. He's caught 4 TD passes in the last 3 games.
The most important thing the Patriots did last night was protect the football. 35 rushing carries, 27 receptions, 3 returns, and 0 fumbles. In weather like that, it's very impressive. BJG Ellis hasn't fumbled in his NFL career. Nor did he fumble in college. I can't find his high school stats, but I doubt he was a fumbling machine back in St. Augustine HS (New Orleans).
On defense, the Pats were all over the Bears. They held them to 185 total yards, and only 47 on the ground. They hauled in two picks, and recovered two fumbles. The Bears were only 3/8 on 3rd downs, so even when Chicago held onto the ball, they struggled to move it. The defense was a big reason why the Patriots dominated time of possession 39:41 to 20:19. That's essentially 2 to 1.
The Bears are fraudulent. The Patriots are currently the best team in the NFL. With the Jets getting "tripped up" by Miami, they now have a stranglehold on the division. They can clinch the AFC East, as well as a 1st round bye, with a win, and a Jet loss next week.
The Packers come to town on Sunday night, possibly without Aaron Rodgers. Though Green Bay does have the #1 scoring defense in the League, and the weather may once again be dicey.
