Super Bowl thoughts and predictions (I compare Belichick to Churchill)

I'm writing this at 4 in the morning of Super Bowl Sunday. It's not that I can't sleep, I don't want to sleep. I can't tell if I'm buzzed, or groggy, or a mellow mixture of both. But I'm sure of the mellowness, which is rare for me.

Seven years ago, as I anxiously anticipated the Patriots meeting the Giants in Super Bowl XLII and perhaps the completion a flawless season, I remember not being able to sleep, and sending texts to my older brother, quoting Shakespeare's Henry V (Roman numeral overload). In that play there's a scene of French commanders conversing on the eve of battle, excited to destroy the small number of underfed and under-equipped English soldiers that stood against them in what would be known as the Battle of Agincourt. And I felt like those eager French. "Would it were day!" In one of history's greatest upsets, the outnumbered, exhausted, and poorly equipped English utterly destroyed the French army in that battle. It was the equivalent of a 16 seed in the NCAA tournament beating a 1 by 40 points, and then continuing to win the whole damn tournament. Similarly, the underdog Giants beat the mighty Patriots.

This feels different. The Patriots are not overwhelming favorites. They face a formidable defense that will not give an inch without a fight. In terms of historical conflicts, this actually reminds me more of the D-Day landings of 1944 in Normandy (and no, I'm not comparing the Seahawks to the Nazis). Like the Allies on the eve of D-Day, I don't know how it will end, but I'm confident that the generals and the soldiers have done all they could to prepare and will do their jobs when the moment comes. We can only wait and watch how it plays out.

I'm more relaxed than I was 8 years ago. Less anxiety, less nervousness. The game starts in 14 and a half hours as I write this, and I'm more concerned about what beer to bring to the party I'm going to. Do I want just Sam Adams, or a mix of some lighter beers? And this is not because I take the opponent lightly, but because there's nothing to think about except the beer. These two teams will decide matters on the field, not in the brains of pundits and "experts,." And certainly the worries and hopes in the arena of my brain won't be able to determine the winner.

Those "experts" by the way, some of whom have been gushing over how amazing Seattle is, completely underestimated them last year against the Broncos. What kind of judge of quality or character are they? In their minds, the Broncos have won 2 of 3 Super Bowls, and the 49ers won the other. The same team they wrote off last year is an unstoppable juggernaut today. The dumbest people in the world are the ones who don't realize what they don't know. And many of those people join the media.

The Patriots have two key advantages in the upcoming game: special teams and Bill Belichick.

The Seahawks are not very good at covering punts. The Patriots have an exceptional punt returner in Julian Edelman. A big return from him could prove to be the difference in the game. A couple of solid 10+ yard returns from him could sway the field position battle in New England's favor. This area is one of the few matchups that either team has a decided advantage over the other.

The other advantage is Belichick. The D-Day invasion was meticulously planned. It involved the coordination of thousands of troops landing in dozens of places, ships and planes bombarding defensive positions, airborne troops landing behind enemy lines to cause disruption (shout out to the 101st Airborne, the unit my brother served in). That was a massive logistical undertaking. There was also a heavy dose of guile and deception, as the Allies were able to convince the Germans that the invasion would take place at the Pas-de-Calais, about 200 miles northeast of Normandy.

Hmmmm, guile and deception. Remind you of any NFL head coaches?

And in risk of hyperbole, wasn't Bill Belichick's "We're on to Cincinnati" press conference the type of simple yet stirring eloquence that Winston Churchill might employ? When the Germans forced the British to evacuate France at Dunkirk in 1940, Churchill might as well have said "We're on to the Battle of Britain," or "We're on to North Africa."

Those 4 words repeated by Belichick helped turn the tide of the season.

These teams are both so good and so tough, wouldn't it be great to see them play a best-of-5 series? Sadly, we only get to enjoy a single game between these very worth adversaries. Only 60 minutes of football. Every small edge will need to be exploited, every opportunity taken advantage of.

I think the Pats make a big special teams play. I think Brady and the offense will have trouble scoring lots of points, but will do their job in the field position game, with the occasional touchdown and field goal. And I think the Seahawks receivers against the Patriots secondary is a favorable matchup for the Pats. The Seahawks won't score many points either.

Patriots win 23-20.

Patriots win was ugly, had good personality

Ugly wins are wins. This was just about as ugly as you could get. No protection for Brady, who\ made a very poor decision and threw a pick. Inconsistent pressure on Geno Smith. Stupid penalties. No offensive movement for most of the game. Ugly, ugly, ugly. But a win, win, win.

And by winning the Patriots advance to the Divisional Round of the playoffs, with a chance to clinch the #1 seed pending the Broncos/Bengals game.

As unattractive as this game was for the Patriots, some big plays gave it a good personality. The Pats rarely pressured Smith, but when they did they forced an interception, and sacked him twice on big third down plays when the Jets were threatening to score. One sack pushed the Jets back 10 yards before they attempted a 52-yard field goal. That field goal was tipped by Vince Wilfork, and the Patriots kept the lead.

Special teams once again factored into a victory, both the blocked field goal and a 39-yard punt return by Danny Amendola at the start of the 2nd quarter that eventually led to Gronkowski's touchdown.

Speaking of Amendola, this was by far his best performance of the year. Brady targeted him 11 times and he caught 8 passes, both team highs, for 63 yards. He had 8 catches in his previous 6 games combined, and only 68 yards. A third of his production this season came Sunday afternoon.

When he got hurt last year and Edelman stepped in and excelled, Amendola found himself without a role in this offense. That's not an excuse, because it speaks to a lack of versatility on Amendola's part, as well as his difficulty staying healthy. Nevertheless, it's unfair to just dismiss him as a complete failure, because if not for Edelman being a great slot receiver, Amendola would have been a good one. When charged with that task, he's done well.

One thing that this game made clear is that the running backs will only do as well as the offensive line does. All the clamoring for Jonas Gray to get carries, all the lobbying made by fans and pundits to run the ball more, it's based on how well the line has played, not how good the RBs are. Jonas Gray had a great game against Indy. But he did it behind an offensive line having an even better game. On Sunday the line struggled, and so did the RBs.

And that point also should make your o-line concerns more prominent. It's the biggest worry this team has going into the playoffs. Brady can't pass without protection. Blount, Gray, and Vereen can't run without holes. This team can't move the ball if the line can't win battles in the trenches.

Concerns aside, the Patriots won the bye, and can clinch home-field advantage if Cincinnati beats Denver Monday night. When the Patriots squeezed by the Jets 27-25 in October, and were about to play a bunch of games against tough teams, did you imagine that they'd be on the verge of clinching the #1 seed?

Hopefully Cincinnati gives us an early Christmas present.

Photo Credit:
Andrew Millis/NJ Advance Media for NJ.com

Flat Bruins Lie Down for Leafs

For most of this game the Bruins played flat, purposeless hockey. There were some occasional moments of spiked intensity. For the most part, however, the black and gold played a very gray game.

I'm not going to blame Tuukka Rask for the loss or for this slump. It's not his fault most of the team isn't playing well. He hasn't played poorly. Although he also hasn't played well. He isn't helping them get out of this funk. If the B's had a more reliable backup I'd suggest that Rask take a week off to regroup and refresh. You've got three non-conference games coming up, maybe Rask should play in only one of them. Maybe none.

Special teams are killing this team. The power play is 1 for its last 23 (4.3%) and the penalty kill has allowed goals in 10 of its last 27 (37%) shorthanded situations. The Bruins are also committing far too many careless, meaningless penalties. Since the Islanders game on New Year's Eve, they've had to kill 27 penalties and have only been on the power play 16 times. That's a difference of 11 in only 6 games.

The power play has been carried by defensemen all season long. But such production can't be relied on throughout an entire season. You can't depend on Chara (6 PP goals) sneaking in a rebound or Krug (4) driving in a slapshot. The forwards need to pull their weight. Chara and Krug have scored 10 of this team's 24 power play goals.

The return of Shawn Thornton has helped recharge the B's a bit. Brad Marchand put the Bruins up 1-0 a mere 35 seconds after a Thornton fight. Thornton was also on the ice when Gregory Campbell scored in the 3rd.

But each time the Bruins took the lead, they gave it back. They typically play harder after scoring a goal. Last night they downshifted after their first two goals. Very out of character.

They need to get their act together Thursday night in Dallas, because after that it's Chicago on the road and LA at home.

Photo Credit:
Elise Amendola/Associated Press