Thursday, February 07, 2008

SCHILLING'S SCHITTY SCHOULDER SCHTARTING SCHPRING SCHTRIFE


Both the Globe and Herald are breaking stories about Curt Schilling's right shoulder. The variations between the two stories leads me to believe that this story is extremely tentative and speculative. Here are a few things that are clear, though:

Curt Schilling's right shoulder is acting up

He will miss at least the start of spring training

He went to see Dr. Craig Morgan, who performed shoulder surgery on Schilling in 1995

The Red Sox official stance is "no comment"

Curt missed 7 weeks of last season with problems in his right shoulder

He's 41 years old

Tony Massarotti is a sensationalist writer

The Globe's story is more subdued, stating that there are reports of an injury and that Schilling may miss part of spring training. The Herald's story is more doom and gloom. The title of the piece is "Schilling could be lost for season." Of course, there's no hard evidence to support this. If Schilling's injury is bad enough to require surgery (again, we have no idea how bad it is), it's safe to say his season is done. But we don't even know what the injury actually is.

Massarotti's Herald column also asserts that there is friction and/or tension between the Red Sox and Schilling. Apparently, there is disagreement over treatment options. There is also a possibility that the Red Sox have looked into voiding Schilling's contract.

Tony Maz cites "baseball sources." He's a reliable reporter, but I think this story is an extreme interpretation of rumor and second hand talk. Understandable considering the lack of spring training storylines surrounding the Sox.

It is possible that the Red Sox and Schilling cannot come to a consensus on how to treat the shoulder. It's possible Schilling wants to rehab somewhere but the team wants him to rehab in Fort Myers. Who knows?

And as far as the Red Sox taking steps to void the contract: all that means is that the Red Sox have looked into it. If you had a 41 year old pitcher with a shoulder injury, and you were on the line to pay him $8M, wouldn't you see if you could get out of it?

What really irks me about this whole thing is that Johan Santana is currently trying on his new Mets apparel. The Red Sox could have had him, albeit for a price. We had Beckett, then a 41 year old, overweight, bad shoulder question mark. Then whatever the Japanese symbol for a question mark is. Then a 90 year old knuckle-baller with a bad back. Then a bunch of kids with next to no Major League experience. Santana wouldn't be a question mark. He would've been an exclamation point.

Sources:
Boston.com
article by Gordon Edes and Nick Cafardo
BostonHerald.com
article by Tony Massarotti

Photo Credit:
Associated Press

SHOULD THE PATRIOTS FRANCHISE MOSS?

Yes!

Randy Moss is the Pats' top candidate to receive the franchise tag. Asante Samuel got it last year, but under the condition that he wouldn't be franchised again. Randy Moss is an unrestricted free agent, and after setting the NFL record for touchdown receptions, is the top free agent WR out there.

A franchise tag would give Moss a 2008 salary of $7.84 million, which is the average salary of the top 5 WRs in the League. This would be far below the potential salaries he could garner on the open market.

Other teams would still be able to make offers to Moss. But if Moss signed with them, it would cost them two first round draft choices. That price is a bit too steep, which is why franchising players is such an ironclad way to keep them on your team cheaply.

We can all agree that Moss was a huge part of the Patriots' record-breaking offense. Although he didn't have big numbers in the post-season, that was more of a product of Tom Brady's play, and not Moss. He is the ultimate receiving threat. He's fast, tall, strong, with great hands.

DONNELLY TO CLEVELAND, HINSKE TO TAMPA

Brendan Donnelly has signed a minor league deal with the Indians. The 36 year old righty underwent Tommy John surgery in 2007 and is expected to miss the first few months of the 2008 season. Despite being named in the Mitchell Report, I wanted the Sox to keep Donnelly. The major knock I have on this team is its lack of bullpen depth, and Donnelly could give us some. Although at his age, coming off major arm surgery might make him too much of a risk.

With the acquisition of Sean Casey, the Sox were free to let Eric Hinske go with no signs of a struggle. The 30 year old former Rookie of the Year hit a meager .204 with the Sox last year. He was a hit or miss signing when we acquired him. It was a miss. He signed a minor league deal with the Tampa Bay Rays.

Sources:
Boston.com's
Extra Bases
The official web-site of the
Tampa Bay Rays

Wednesday, February 06, 2008

SOX GET MORE INSURANCE

The Red Sox re-signed Bobby Kielty to a one year deal, potentially worth up to $1.1M bsed on incentives. With Manny Ramirez, Coco Crisp, JD Drew, and Jacoby Ellsbury; this re-signing makes it clear that a trade involving an outfielder should be expected. Coco Crisp has been the name on the top of the trade list.

PRELIMINARY PATRIOTS 2008 SCHEDULE

In case you can't tell, I'm trying real hard to look ahead toward next football season. Here are the teams we'll be playing, and where the games will be. The order of the games, placement of the bye week, and time of the games has yet to be determined. Each team's record is in parenthesis

Home:
New York Jets (4-12)
Miami Dolphins (1-15)
Buffalo Bills (7-9)
Denver Broncos (7-9)
Kansas City Chiefs (4-12)
St. Louis Rams (3-13)
Arizona Cardinals (8-8)
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)

Road:
New York Jets (4-12)
Miami Dolphins (1-15)
Buffalo Bills (7-9)
San Francisco 49ers (5-11)
San Diego Chargers (11-5)
Oakland Raiders (4-12)
Seattle Seahawks (10-6)
Indianapolis Colts (13-3)

Yes, it looks like we're hosting Pittsburgh and going to Indianapolis...again. One thing you may have noticed is the large number of west coast games. We're playing the AFC West along with the NFC West. That means 4 trips to the Pacific Time Zone. Last year we only had 2 games outside the Eastern zone, and they were in the Central zone. So that should be an interesting challenge.

Overall, these opponents combined for a record of 99-157 (thanks mostly to Miami and New York). Of course the big games will be against San Diego, Indy, and Pittsburgh.

One strange little oddity. The Pats will face the Colts in 2009, as well. Where? Indianapolis, of course. That means regular season road games against Indy for three straight seasons. Are any of us surprised?

Tuesday, February 05, 2008

PATRIOTS OFF-SEASON BEGINS

What really stings about Sunday's big loss is the fact that for many Patriots, that was their last game wearing red, white, and blue.

Linebackers Junior Seau and Tedy Bruschi will probably retire, although there's a slim chance Bruschi may stick around. Even if Tedy stays, it's clear that two new starting ILBs are needed. He simply isn't the playmaker we need in the middle of the field anymore.

Donte Stallworth is gone, most likely. Randy Moss is a free agent and could command a massive salary for 2008, perhaps too massive for the Pats' salary cap to handle. Jabar Gaffney is an unrestricted free agent, but I imagine the Pats will keep him around.

Asante Samuel will also be a free agent. After another great season, he's probably gone to another team for big bucks. Randall Gay and Eugene Wilson are free agents and will probably be allowed to leave. Gay because he sucks, and Wilson because he wants to start.

The most pressing need will be at linebacker. Colvin will be back, as will Vrabel and Adalius. One of them could play inside (most likely Adalius, but I'd much rather have him outside). The Pats could adjust defensive philosophies and become more of a 4-3 team, with Adalius on the end.

Re-signing Moss is the #1 priority for this team, so long as the money is right. He adds another dimension to our offense, especially in conjuncture with Wes Welker. I'd love to keep Gaffney, and move Kelley Washington into the top 5 on the WR depth chart.

Right now, here's my incomplete guess of the Patriots roster for the 2008 season.

Offense
QB1: Tom Brady
QB2: Matt Gutierrez
QB3:

RB1: Laurence Maroney
RB2: Sammy Morris
RB3: Kevin Faulk
FB: Heath Evans

C: Dan Koppen
LG: Logan Mankins
RG: Stephen Neal
LT: Matt Light
RT: Nick Kaczur
OL6: Russ Hochstein
OL7:
OL8:

WR1: Randy Moss
WR2: Wes Welker
WR3: Jabar Gaffney
WR4: Kelley Washington
WR5: Chad Jackson
WR6:

TE1: Ben Watson
TE2: Kyle Brady
TE3: David Thomas

Defense
DT1: Vince Wilfork
DT2:
DE1: Richard Seymour
DE2: Ty Warren
DE3: Jarvis Green

OLB1: MIke Vrabel
OLB2: Roosevelt Colvin
OLB3: Adalius Thomas
OLB4:
ILB1:
ILB2:
ILB3:
ILB4:

CB1:
CB2: Ellis Hobbs
CB3:
CB4:
S1: Rodney Harrison
S2: James Sanders
S3: Brandon Meriweather
S4:

Special Teams
K: Stephen Gostkowski
P: Chris Hanson
LS: Lonnie Paxton

RED SOX SIGN SEAN CASEY

With the collective eyes of New England focused on Glendale, the Red Sox acquisition of Sean Casey may have fallen just a bit under the radar.

Sean Casey is the first significant addition to the Red Sox this off-season. He was signed to a 1 year deal worth $800,000. This brings up a multitude of questions.

#1: Why Sean Casey? Don't the Sox already have Youkilis and Ortiz, why get Casey?

The Red Sox biggest offensive holes in 2007 were short-stop, right-field, center-field, and catcher. So why get another first baseman, which was already the deepest position on the roster?

Unlike Ortiz, Casey is a good defensive first-baseman. Unlike Youkilis, Casey is left-handed. And perhaps most importantly: unlike Ortiz, Casey didn't undergo knee surgery in the off-season.

Casey is an insurance policy. We have no idea what kind of player Ortiz will be post-op. Having Casey gives the Sox a viable option at DH, one who can hit around .290 and knock out a few homeruns.

Casey may also provide insurance for another position. This is mere speculation, but is it possible the Red Sox might shift Youkilis to right-field if Drew continues to struggle? Youk played 18 games in left-field two years ago. He's be no Vlad Guerrero, but he'd get by out there.

But let's say Ortiz is fine, and Drew hits like he's supposed to; what does Sean Casey do then? He becomes a good pinch-hitter. He becomes a lefty replacement for Youkilis in certain situations. He becomes a defensive replacement. He won't push the Sox over the top, but he'd still be a positive addition.

#2: Why would Sean Casey want to be an insurance policy?

Three words: World Series ring. I wouldn't be surprised if Casey's agent went out to contending teams like the Red Sox, trying to see if there was any interest for his services. The abbreviated contract length and low money total was the bait that lured the Red Sox in. So the Red Sox get some flexibility and insurance, and Casey gets an opportunity to play for the best team in baseball. It's win win.

#3: Why is Sean Casey nicknamed "The Mayor?"

He got that monicker in Cincinnati. He's known for talking to every single baserunner that stops by first base. In 2007 he was voted "friendliest player in baseball" by his fellow players. He's also deeply involved in numerous charities. In fact, he and Conan O'Brien co-founded Labels Are For Jars, an anti-hunger charity in Lawrence, MA. So he's generally a nice guy.

#4: What does this mean for the 2008 Red Sox?

It means the Red Sox have some insurance. If Ortiz or Youkilis gets hurt, then Casey can fill in for them. If Lowell gets hurt, then Youkilis can play third, and Casey can play first. If Drew struggles, then Youkilis can play right, and Casey can play first.

This acquisition also gives us a good bat off the bench. Last year we really didn't have anyone to plug into a late inning game-changing situation. If Julio Lugo was up with 2 on in the 9th, there really wasn't much we could do about it. Casey gives us more options.

And you can't beat the price. $800,000 is a lot of money to you and me, but to the Red Sox, it's a pittance. And for a guy who has a career .301 average and .366 OBP, it's a bargain.

Monday, February 04, 2008

DEFEAT MOST BITTER

In 48 BC, 60,000 Roman soldiers under Pompey the Great stood against 22,000 Romans under Julius Caesar outside of Pharsalus in Greece. Pompey's legions were fresh, well-fed, and outnumbered Caesar's nearly 3 to 1. Caesar's men were tired, starving, and facing oblivion. Yet Caesar's men won a decisive victory.

In 1415, 30,000 French soldiers stood against 6,000 Englishmen on the fields of Agincourt in northern France. Despite possessing an overwhelming numerical advantage, the French were crushed. Only 112 Englishmen lay dead at the end of the day, while an estimated 7,000 to 10,000 French were killed.

In 1940, the mighty German Luftwaffe (Air Force) set out to cripple Great Britain. The Germans had more experience than English pilots, flying in the Spanish Civil War, as well as numerous campaigns in the early stages of World War II. The Germans had better fighters, and more of them. They had almost as many bombers as the English had total planes. But eventually the Germans were worn down and defeated.

Sunday's defeat to the Giants was not nearly as gruesome, nor as historically important. But the Patriots came in as the undeniable favorite, a team that had not lost in more than a calendar year. A two time Super Bowl MVP under center. The Coach of the Year on the sidelines. Pro-Bowlers galore. The tattered remains of broken records at their feat. Yet they lost.

How? I'll tell you how.

QB Pressure
No team has ever pressured Tom Brady the way the Giants did on Sunday. Their front four got pressure up the gut and on the edge. Their blitzes were savage, precise, well-disguised, and executed to perfection. Brady was sacked, knocked down, forced to step-up, unable to step through his throws, hurried, and flushed. There were very few easy dropbacks.



The Giants not only got in Brady's face, but they prevented the deep pass. Moss and others were wide open downfield several times, only to have the play broken up behind them by pressure on Brady. The Giants also clogged the throwing lanes, disrupting the short passing game.

The pressure led to several false start penalties, almost all of which came at inopportune times, disrupting the rhythm and momentum of drives, turning 2nd & 10s into 2nd & 15s.

The Running Games
Laurence Maroney had given two impressive performances to help get the Pats to Super Bowl XLII, and at the start of the game looked good. But the Giants clamped down and stopped him for the rest of the night.

In New England's first drive, Maroney had four carries for 15 yards. His final carry of the drive was a 1 yard touchdown. For the remainder of the game, he was held to 21 yards on 10 carries, averaging an anemic 2.1 yards per carry.

Here are those 10 carries:
11:11 2nd qtr, 2nd & 2, NE 41 - Maroney left end, pushed out of bounds, gain of 1
10:43 2nd qtr, 3rd & 1, NE 40 - Maroney left tackle, loss of 2
8:35 2nd qtr, 1st & 10, NE 30 - Maroney up the middle, no gain
1:41 2nd qtr, 2nd & 10, NE 11 - Maroney right end, loss of 3
14:16 3rd qtr, 1st & 10, NE 36 - Maroney up the middle, gain of 7
13:02 3rd qtr, 1st & 10, NE 48 - Maroney left end, loss of 2
8:42 3rd qtr, 1st & 10, NY 28 - Maroney right guard, no gain
2:19 3rd qtr, 1st & 10, NE 21 - Maroney right tackle, gain of 9
1:47 3rd qtr, 2nd & 1, NE 30 - Maroney left end, gain of 2
6:39 4th qtr, 1st & 10, NE 35 - Maroney left end, pushed out of bounds, gain of 9

So Maroney got 21 yards on these 10 carries, but 25 yards came on three of those carries. His runs were that inconsistent. In the entire game he had three 9 yard carries, a 7 yard carry, a 5 yard carry, a 2 yard carry, a pair of 1 yard carries, three carries for no gain, two carries for a loss of 2, and a carry for a loss of 3. Six of his 14 carries went for no gain or a loss. That's abysmal.

Of the 10 carries listed above, some hurt a great deal. The first two came after Ellis Hobbs intercepted Manning, and the Pats blew a chance to build on their 7-3 lead by going 3 and out. Think about this, they had 2nd and 2, and failed to convert for the 1st down. That's not supposed to happen...ever.

That carry for no gain with 8:42 in the 3rd, was one of the plays that led to the 4th & 13 debacle. The inability to get any yardage on 1st down led to a Kyle Brady reception for 3, which led to 3rd & 7, which led to a sack, which led to a 4th & 13 situation in no mans' land.

With no running threat, the Giants' front four was free to tee off on Brady. Drives lost momentum or were never able to pick any up.

But it wasn't all Maroney's fault, or even the offensive line's. The Giants did a good job of stopping him before he could build up any steam. They stuffed the middle, and pursued well to the outside. Even when Maroney got a little bit of space to get some power going, the Giants were quick to envelop him.

Meanwhile, Jacobs and Bradshaw combined for a solid day of work. They didn't put up massive numbers. They combined for 87 yards on 23 carries (3.8 YPC), which isn't stellar, but they picked up decent yardage almost every time they ran. They only lost yardage on one run. They gained 2 yards or more on 19 carries. They gained 3 or more on 13 carries. Four or more on 10 carries. Seven or more on 5 carries. These runs created 3rd and manageable situations for the passing game.



One of the biggest plays of the game was a 2 yard run by Brandon Jacobs on 4th & 1 with 1:34 on the clock in the 4th. If he gets stuffed, which he very nearly did, the game is all but over, with the Pats taking over on New York's 37, in need of a touchdown to ice it, or a first down to end it. Instead, Jacobs gets the 1st down, and the Giants drive winds up in the end zone for a game-winning touchdown.

Inability to Make a Big Play
The Patriots didn't make nearly as many big plays as the Giants did. In their long opening drive, the Giants converted four 3rd downs in order to hang on to the ball, chew up clock, wear down the defense, and eventually score 3 points. Meanwhile, Ellis Hobbs had an opportunity to pick off a tipped ball in the end zone, but failed to come down with it.

After eventually intercepting Manning, the Pats did nothing to capitalize. They made the big play but couldn't build on it. They failed to convert a 2nd & 2, then a 3rd & 1 and were forced to punt.

On the Giants' 33 yard line, a fumbled hand off was apparently smothered by Pierre Woods, but the Giants were able to wrestle it from him and retain posession. Instead of the Pats taking over at New York's 30 yard line, the G-Men punted, and New England got the ball back on their own 30, a 40 yard change in field position.

The rest of the 1st half was a field position battle. After absorbing two sacks, the Pats punted and the Giants got the ball on their 43 yard line. Then New York punted and Kevin Faulk caught it at the 11. Eventually Brady fumbled at New York's 44. A 45 yard drive hadn't even gotten the Pats into field goal range.

The Giants made a big play in the 3rd quarter, on a 3rd and 6. They sacked Brady for a loss of 7, which pushed the Pats beyond comfortable field goal range. Belichick decided to go for it on 4th and 13, but the Pats were unable to convert.

The Giants had the longest play of the game, a 45 yard reception by Kevin Boss, which set-up a touchdown pass to Tyree. The TD gave the Giants a 10-7 lead. New England's longest completion was 19 yards.

Brady's Deep Misses
When Brady got enough time and space to throw the deep ball, they all were horribly off-target. Moss, Stallworth, Gaffney, and Welker were all able to beat their coverage and get seperation. But Brady's balls were overthrown, underthrown, thrown wide right, wide left. He was all over the place. Against a better secondary, there would have been some interceptions.

The pressure had been all over Brady from start to finish, but his short passes were crisp and generally on target. He was 7 for 10 in that 4th quarter touchdown drive. So I don't think the pressure was why his long balls were so off target.

Those misguided bombs at the end of the game were perfect examples of Brady's loss of touch and accuracy when throwing deep. On 1st & 10, both Gaffney and Welker had a step on the coverage, but the ball fell over and in between the two. On 3rd & 20, Moss had a half step on his men (enough space for him) but the ball was just slightly underthrown.



My guess would be that the ankle, coupled with good pressure from the Giants, was responsible for these un-Brady-like deep balls. Had the Patriots got even one of those early deep balls, this game is entirely different.

Finishing the Game
By the middle of the 3rd quarter, it was clear that this game would be decided by 7 points or less, and each team's performance in their final drives would determine the game's outcome. Brady and the Pats went ahead 14-10 with 2:45 on the clock. It was up to the defense.

The Giants' final drive started off well for New England. Hixon was upended by Raymond Ventrone at the 17 yard line. The Giants would have to go 83 yards in 2:39. Not impossible, but the way the Pats defense had been playing, not probable.

The first opportunity to stop the Giants came on 4th and 1 at the 37. Brandon Jacobs got the hand-off up the middle, as we all expected. He was hampered at the line, but was able to fall forward for a gain of 2 and a 1st down.

The second opportunity came on 2nd & 5 at the Giant 44. Manning overthrew Tyree, and Samuel was right there. Asante got fingertips from both hands on the ball, but his leap was just a fraction of a second off. The tipped ball floated out of bounds and incomplete. An interception right there, with 1:15 on the clock, would have - at the very least - taken nearly a minute off the clock and forced the Giants to burn their timeouts.

The third opportunity was on this play:



Adalius Thomas started the pressure. Manning stepped up, but Jarvis Green and Richard Seymour were still right on top of him. But nobody took him down. Had he been sacked, it would have been a loss of about 8, setting up a 4th & 13 on the Giant 36 yard line.



Not only did the Pats fail to record the sack, Manning was able to find David Tyree, who made the catch of the century. Tyree almost let the ball fly past his head. Any tip would have probably been intercepted by the Pats. Rodney was right on Tyree. Hobbs, Sanders, and Samuel were all closing in on the play.



The fourth opportunity came on 2nd & 11. Another pass intended for Tyree was nearly picked off, this one by Meriweather. It would have been a tough, diving, over-the-shoulder catch; but it was possible. Meriweather did a good job just to break up the pass, but it could have been better.
Then New York's touchdown, featuring Plaxico Burress in single coverage, and a falling down Ellis Hobbs. That was ugly.

New York finished the game properly. New England came close to making big plays to end it, but they failed when it mattered most. Champions don't fail at times like that.

Questionable Coaching
It's hard to question Coach Belichick, but this game featured some interesting coaching decisions.

The 4th & 13 play was the most glaring decision, but for me it wasn't that bad. All year, we've gone for it from that spot of the field. I wouldn't have minded a punt, either, trying to pin the Giants back.

I do have a problem with the 3rd & 7 play calling on the previous play. Why not try a screen to Faulk on that play? Why try to go deep on 3rd & 7 when in field goal range, especially against a fierce pass rush that just might get to Brady. Even if you don't get the first down, you'll be in good field goal range, or set-up a 4th & 3 or 4th & 4.

I didn't like how often the Pats kept going deep. It was obvious that the Giants pass rush was teeing off on Brady. It was just as obvious that Tom's long passes were terribly innacurate. So many 2nd & 10s, and 3rd & 10s came about because of the deep ball addiction.



So the Giants played better than the Pats. The Patriots failed to come up with big plays, which they've made all year. There's nothing we can do except look to next season.

Giants' linebacker Antonio Pierce said after the game "This was the death of a dynasty."

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

To Mister Pierce, and the rest of the NFL...




we'll be back.



Sources:
ESPN.com, Fox, NFL.com, Yahoo Sports

Photo credits:
Harry How/Getty Images
Jim McIsaac/Getty Images
Elsa/Getty Images
Andy Lyons/Getty Images
Matt Slocum/AP
Timothey A. Clary/AFP/Getty Images