HOW IMPORTANT IS SUNDAY'S GAME IN BUFFALO?

It's a must-win. And it's unfortunate that a Week 15 game in Buffalo is so vital. Had the Patriots been able to beat the Dolphins last week, they'd have the division all-but clinched. In fact, a win last Sunday in Miami, and the Pats could've clinched the division this Sunday with a win.

Had the Pats beaten Miami, and been able to get into the end zone against the Jets in Week 2 to win that game, then the division would be mathematically sealed and delivered to Foxborough.

Back to present reality, the Patriots are 1 game ahead in the AFC East. However, a loss on Sunday, coupled with a Miami victory, and the AFC East isn't tied at the top. Miami would have the advantage, as they would have clinched a better divisional record, which would trump any ties the Patriots and Dolphins find themselves in.

A loss on Sunday would also cripple any hopes of a Wild Card berth. As the standings lay right now, Miami, Baltimore, Jacksonville, and the Jets are all tied at 7-6 for that 6th and final AFC playoff spot. A loss on Sunday would throw the Patriots into that gaggle of teams, and with a 5-5 conference record (tie-breaker after head-to-head).

Perhaps the cold weather has got me so dismal and pessimistic. But there are some frightening FACTS about the Bills and the Patriots.

#1: The Pats barely beat the Bills in Foxborough. If not for some token Buffalo chokedom, that game would've been lost.

#2: The Bills have nothing to lose. When they're playing for something tangible, they fuck it up. But freed of such pressures and they tend to play their best football.



#3: 0-5, that's the Patriots record when playing west of Worcester.

#4: The Pats' 20-10 victory over Carolina was far from inspiring football.

#5: The Bills beat Miami 31-14 just a few weeks ago.

Now it's time to look on the bright side of things. The Bills have no passing game. For a team that's frequently trailing in games 2,311 total passing yards is pretty weak. 13 passing TDs, 16 INTs. A team rating of 69.8. The major weaknesses of the Pats' defense are pass-rushing and pass-defending. Thanks to Ryan Fitzpatrick, that shouldn't be much of a worry.



And let's just say the Pats do lose to Buffalo. Miami and the Jets both have interesting schedules to negotiate. Miami is @ Tennessee Sunday, then hosts Houston, then Pittsburgh. The Jets have Atlanta at home Sunday, then @ Indy, then hosting the Bengals.

I think the Patriots will roll on Sunday. Unfortunately, it'll take Terrell Owens to get Randy Moss motivated. Even without Moss, the Pats' D will stifle Buffalo's running game enough to keep them off the board. Eventually, the Pats will score some touchdowns and win 31-10.



Source:
ESPN
NFL

STUART OUT 4 TO 6 WEEKS

Mark Stuart suffered a broken sternum during Monday's game against the Flyers. He'll be out for 4 to 6 weeks with that injury, snapping a 196 consecutive game streak.

Dennis Wideman will also miss at least the first leg of the Bruins' three game road trip (Chicago-Toronto-Ottawa), with an undisclosed injury that is unrelated to his injuries from last week.

Without Stuart and Widemen, the Bruins lose about 38 minutes on the blue-line. Look for Chara and Derek Morris to get a few extra shifts per game. Matt Hunwick has been a healthy scratch lately, but he'll probably be back in the lineup on the 3rd defensive pairing.

The injuries just do not stop for the Bruins, or for the rest of the NHL either.

Source:
Bruins Blog

I HATE ADALIUS THOMAS, AND DISLIKE RANDY MOSS

When the Patriots got Adalius Thomas and Randy Moss in between the '06 and '07 seasons, I was excited. Thrilled even.

When the Patriots signed Adalius, my reaction was like this:
"In our 3-4 defense, Thomas is the perfect fit. The 3-4 is dependant on defensive linemen who can eat blocks and maintain the line of scrimmage, with fast and strong LBs behind them to exploit holes in pass defense, and plug holes in run defense. Thomas can do both of these jobs, very well."

When they traded for Moss, my reaction went like this:
"In a stunning move, the Patriots used a 4th round pick to trade for WR Randy Moss of the Oakland Raiders. A 4th round pick for one of the most talented receivers of our generation. A 4th round pick for a guy who can come in and be a #1 receiver. A 4th round pick for a guy who can come in and improve a receiver corps that already includes Donte Stallworth.

This deal is amazing. The best part of it is that we don't NEED Randy Moss in order to be a winning team. Unlike Minnesota, who depended a great deal on Moss, and Oakland, which was a horribly run team to begin with, if Randy Moss doesn't perform to our expectations, he's gone, no sweat. And if he does perform up to expectations, holy friggin crap."

Nothing short of excitement with both acquisitions. And while Randy Moss was stellar in '07, and good in '08; Adalius Thomas has compiled maybe 7 or 8 good games in his time here.

This season was the last straw for Belichick and Thomas. He was a healthy scratch for the London game, and the whole "LateGate" thing should see him inactive until the season closes.

Some Belichick haters out there have already concocted conspiracy theories. Adalius is the NFLPA player rep on the Patriots, so some have speculated that there's labor-management tension between he and Belichick. Others have even suggested that Adalius leaked to the media the story of being sent home last week. So Belichick benched him out of vengeance. Right.



Adalius Thomas sucks. We were all blinded by his potential and raw athleticism. But Ray Lewis was right, he is a coward.

Randy Moss isn't too far behind Adalius. His apologists out there have defended his lollygaging on certain plays as a diversion, as part of a grand scheme to lull defenses to sleep. It might also be the effects of a nagging back injury. No, it's just laziness. If he's not getting the ball, he'll walk his routes.



If you ask me, Moss is already a lost cause. There's a distinctive pattern in his career. He starts off strong on a new team, then something gets under his skin, so he quits. He's a baby. Hopefully I'll be proven wrong, but once he starts tanking plays like he's done lately, he's never kicked it back into high gear until he's gone to a new team.

But unlike Adalius, at least we got something substantial from Moss.


Sources:
Ottawa Citizen
Pro-Football-Reference.com

SERIOUSLY, MIKE CAMERON??? COME ON!

The Red Sox signed Mike Cameron to a 2 year deal worth $15.5 million. I'm not happy at all with this. I've never thought of Mike Cameron as more than a 6th hitter on mediocre teams. He's a significant downgrade from Bay. He can hit 25 homeruns, but he only hit for a .250 average. And it's weird to see the OBP obsessed Sox sign a guy with a .340 career mark in that category. He struck out 156 times last year.

He has a career .220 average in Fenway Park.

Right now, this is the horror show that is the Sox lineup.

1. CF Ellsbury
2. 2B Pedroia
3. 3B Youkilis
4. 1B V. Martinez
5. DH Ortiz
6. RF Drew
7. LF Cameron
8. SS Scutaro
9. C Varitek

Not too pleasant. But when Cameron-Scutaro-Varitek are due up, the fans at Fenway know they can hit the bathroom, grab a few beers, and not miss anything. So there's a silver lining to this ever-darkening cloud.

If the Lowell deal doesn't go through, the situation doesn't look as bad. Varitek won't be in the lineup. I'd take Lowell with both thumbs amputated over Varitek.

Hopefully the Red Sox trading Lowell, and signing Lackey (instead of trading for Halladay), means they're saving their prospects to make a move on a big hitting first baseman. That would change things around.

Nevertheless, there will still be Mike Cameron in the lineup, and that's just unfortunate.

Sources:
Boston Globe
Baseball-Reference.com

WAS JASON BAY THE PROBLEM WITH THE OFFENSE?

I like Jason Bay. I'm a Jason Bay fan. When a player you hate gets traded (Manny), and his replacement has any measure of success, you're bound to have a new favorite on the team. Having the number 44 doesn't hurt either (see: Orlando Cabrera). Neither does going to Gonzaga (before it became cool).

I like Jason Bay's overall numbers. .267 average, .384 OBP, .537 SLG, .921 OPS. Very nice. 119 RBI, 36 HR. Excellent.

But was the Sox big offensive problem scoring runs in a 162 game stretch, or was it scoring runs consistently, day in, day out?

The Sox were 3rd in the AL with 872 runs. The Angels were only 9 ahead of them in 2nd, and only the Yankees were significantly above them with 915 runs. The Yankees, Angels, and Sox were also 1-2-3 in Major League Baseball for runs scored. The Sox scored 5.38 runs a game, more than 26 other clubs, and more than the 4.61 MLB average, and the 4.82 AL average. The Sox scored enough runs.

It was consistency. That was the problem with the offense. And if you want consistency, then don't look in Jason Bay's direction.

Monthly Splits

In June, he hit .230, with only 4 homers and 20 RBI. In July, he hit 1 homerun, and knocked in 5 runs, in 25 games. He hit .192. He was red hot in April and May. He warmed up again in August and September. Then he cooled off in October. In the ALDs, he was 1 for 8 with a single. He walked 3 times. 0 RBI.

Now all hitters are streaky hitters. Hot for a week, cold for a week. But Bay was hot for 2 months, cold for 2 months. And when Bay was having his worst struggles (July), the Sox went 13-12.

As I think more and more about Bay's inconsistency, I'm starting to reconsider my stance on the Sox re-signing him.

Source:
Baseball-Reference.com

SOX NO LONGER LACK PITCHING

That's the best pun I could come up with involving John Lackey's name. Not very good, I know. More importantly, the Sox are in the midst of signing Lackey to a 5 year deal.

I'm pleased, and confused. I like Lackey, and I the Sox needed to solidify their rotation. Lester-Beckett-Lackey-Matsuzaka-Buchholz sounds so much better than Lester-Beckett-Matsuzaka-Buchholz-Wakefield. Lackey is the quintessential #3 starter on a quality rotation, and I don't like the idea of Matsuzaka being anything but a 4th starter.

Lackey's numbers aren't staggering, but he's kept his ERA below 4 in each of the last 5 seasons. In '07, he was 3rd in Cy Young voting, with a 19-9 record and a 3.01 ERA.

He has ample postseason experience, with 12 starts and 14 total appearances and a surprisingly low 3.12 playoff ERA. He won Game 7 of the '02 World Series as a rookie.

But he's had some injury problems the last two years, and hasn't surpassed the 180 inning mark. He's also 31, pretty much at his peak for a pitcher, and the 5 year deal he'll get will probably see him enjoy some of his declining years with a big salary.

I'm struggling to understand why a 31 year old #3 pitcher is worth 5 years and around $80 million, and a 31 year old mid-lineup hitter isn't worth 5 years and $75 million. If given the decision, I'd choose to keep Bay instead of add Lackey. And that's a big deal for me because I believe pitching is twice as important as offense.

That being said, if all of the Red Sox starters are as good as they can be, the Sox have the best rotation in baseball.

Sources:
Boston Globe
Baseball-Reference.com

DETECTING A PATTERN

The Bruins' inconsistency is no longer inconsistent. It's becoming quite consistent and predictable. They'll play great hockey for a few games, knock in a few goals, then they'll try too hard to replicate similar scoring totals, and blow games against mediocre competition.

You've got to be able to beat teams like the Flyers at home. Philly is a 7/8/9 team these days, and on home ice, you absolutely must defeat a team on that level.

David Krejci had one of his worst games in a Bruins uniform. So many poor passes, so many times he didn't do the little things while trying to do the big things. When covering the point for a pinching defenseman, he couldn't keep the puck in the zone. When sitting in the crease, he didn't have his stick on the ice for the centering pass that came his way. Just an awful game.

And Blake Wheeler, he pulled his typical Blake Wheller shenanigans.

The B's really missed Lucic last night. They rarely won battles on the boards. Once Philadelphia realized that they were winning all these contests, they got more and more aggressive when the Bruins tried entering the zone.

Too many long passes for the Bruins. Straight passes too. No effort on the offensive breakout to form triangles, even skinny triangles. Short passes and triangles, that's what allows a standard offensive possession to develop into a scoring opportunity.

I think the Bruins will simplify things once again for their Friday night game in Chicago. The Blackhawks are 20-8-3 this year, with an impressive 13-3-1 record at home (best in the NHL).

But these hiccups will continue. And like the hiccups, they start off as a minor annoyance, then a major nuisance, and now they're a major pain.

Bruins @ Blackhawks Friday night.

Source:
ESPN

Photo Credit:
AP Photo/Charles Krupa

THE LEAST THRILLED I'VE EVER BEEN AFTER A PATRIOTS WIN

What did we learn in yesterday's 20-10 victory? We learned that the Panthers suck. We learned that Adalius Thomas is only on the roster because his dismissal would result in a salary cap hit. And we learned that Randy Moss has been lost.

If not for some fortuitous penalties, this game would have been closer, and perhaps lost. If not for John Fox's decision to try a 53 yard field goal into the wind, the outcome may have been different.

This Patriots team didn't come out with much fire. Some players did. Brady was good as always. Wes Welker's on a mission. Ben Watson was great. Mayo, Jarvis Green, Wilfork, Warren, and even Burgess were all solid.



But this is like watching Eight Men Out (the movie about the 1919 White Sox), when half the team is throwing World Series games and the other half tries even harder in an effort to win.



Randy Moss is a saboteur. He's lazy. He may be injured, but what kind of Manny Ramirez style injury causes a player to go full speed on one play, then lallygag on the next? He was responsible for Brady's INT, and he fumbled the ball himself. So not only is he showing up late, and taking plays off, but now he's HURTING the team.



I was hoping he'd play with a fire lit under his ass, but he's still Randy Moss. And I'm thrilled I never bought a #81 jersey, because I think they'll be hitting the discount rack at the Pro Shop real soon.

Carolina sucks. The Patriots played weakly and beat a bad team in bad weather. But the same old problems are all still there.

And I have a bad feeling the Patriots are going to lose next weekend in Buffalo.

Source:
ESPN

Photo Credits:
AP Photo