COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS: WEEK 9*

It was an awful week for me, as my picks were 3-6. I had some close calls, but this isn't horseshoes. My record against the spread is now an unremarkable 19-16-2. So let's hope as conference play continues, I can go on a nice run heading into the bowl games. Here are my picks for this week in college football. I took the odds from Doc's Sports Service.

Thursday 7:30 PM - ESPN
#16 Florida State Seminoles @ NC State Wolfpack
I have to take the Noles -3.5 here. The ACC seems to produce a contender, then reduce them to fraud shortly thereafter. And NC State has been pretty good this year. But FSU is having a nice rebound season. FSU -3.5



Friday 8:00 PM - ESPN2
West Virginia Mountaineers @ UConn Huskies
WVU has fallen off a bit, and the game is in Storrs. But I've picked UConn like three times already this season, and lost every time. So it's time for the Huskies to make me money. West Virginia -6.5.



All these games are on Saturday:

12:00 PM - ESPN3
Clemson Tigers @ BC Eagles
Boston College has a decent defense, but has no offensive capabilities whatsoever. They'll probably put up a good fight against Clemson, but I think the Tigers win, and cover the 7 point spread. Clemson -7.



12:00 PM
Northwestern Wildcats @ Indiana Hoosiers
I'll take Northwestern -3, and yes, I know I'm picking lots of road favorites so far. So what?

3:30 PM - ABC
#6 Missouri Tigers @ #14 Nebraska Cornhuskers
It's kind of hard to believe that this game will be the most important Big XII clash of the year, maybe even more important than the Conference title game. I'm taking Mizzou +7.5. Even if Nebraska wins, they'll win close in a defensive struggle.

3:30 PM - CBS
Florida Gators vs. Georgia Bulldogs (Jacksonville, FL)
Remember when this game meant something? I'll take the Gators +3, because Georgia sucks.



3:30 PM - ESPNU
Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ Maryland Terrapins
WFU are 2-5, 1-3 in ACC play, have lost 5 straight, and haven't won a road game all season. I'll take Maryland -5.5.





6:00 PM - ESPN2
#1 Auburn Tigers @ Ole Miss Rebels
Look, I know that #1 teams have lost three straight weeks, all on the road. And here's the #1 team on the road. But Ole Miss isn't Missouri, and Oxford, Mississippi isn't Madison, Wisconsin. I'll take Auburn -7.



7:00 PM - Versus
#13 Stanford Cardinal @ Washington Huskies
This is a pure gut-feeling pick. Stanford's on the road, Washington's been solid, and the spread's not bad. Washington +7.5.



8:00 PM - ABC
#2 Oregon Ducks @ USC Trojans
Oregon should be #1. And they're on the road. Against a tough opponent. In a tough place to play. So according to the trend of the last few weeks, they should lose. USC +7.

88 WAYS TO BEAT THE HEAT

Yes, this game represents 1.2% of the regular season; a meaningless morsel of what is a meaningless stretch of 82 games. But you know what, all off-season, it's been "Miami this," and "LeBron that," and "New Big Three those," et cetera. The Celtics reminded the rest of the basketball world that there are some pretty good teams outside of Miami.

This game was also a reminder that the Celtics have Rajon Rondo, and Mr. Rondo had 17 assists. Ray Allen had a great shooting night, which we all know is something that will come and go, but led the C's with 20 points. Pierce had 19, Glen Davis contributed 13 from the bench, KG had 10, Shaq had 9. KG also had 10 rebounds, Pierce had 9, Shaq had 8.

LeBron James put up 31 points. None of his teammates did much offensively. Wade had 13. That's nice, I guess. The Heat only had 15 assists compared to the 25 the Celtics compiled.

Some ridiculously optimistic Celtics fans out there will proclaim this as definitive proof that the Celtics are still atop the Eastern Conference. That's really stupid to suggest after only one regular season home game. Especially since the big question for the aging Celtics isn't "will they have it in Game #1?" It's "will they have it in game #91?"

But at the very least, the Celtics demonstrated that the game isn't played on paper. Champions aren't determined by hour-long ESPN specials

Game #2 comes quickly as the Celtics play in Cleveland tonight.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

THE YANKEES ARE STILL BETTER THAN US

I was glad when the Rangers eliminated the Yankees this weekend. I was relieved that we wouldn't have to endure another off-season of Yankee fans talking about how they were approaching the "Big 3-0." But my celebration was tempered by the unavoidable fact that the Yankees still field a better team than the Red Sox.

The last two years, the Yankees have won 14 more regular season games. This year, the Blue Jays were closer behind the Sox than the Sox were behind the Yankees.

More importantly, the Yankees have gone 16-8 in the playoffs the last two years, winning 4 of 5 series. The Red Sox are 0-3. The Sox haven't won a playoff game since October 18, 2008. So while the Yankees won't be parading down Manhattan's Canyon of Heroes, it's not as if the Sox are on the verge of taking another Duckboat tour.

You can attribute the Yankees' 2010 superiority to the Sox' injuries. If you do, stop reading right now because you're a fool. Here's a ball. Perhaps you'd like to bounce it. The Sox used 6 starters, and 4 of them had ERAs over 4.40. The AL's League ERA was 4.14. Not to mention a bullpen that blew the 4th most Saves and had the 7th worst Save % in all of baseball.

The Sox were 9th in the AL with a 4.20 team ERA. The team built for Run Prevention allowed the 4th most runs. Injuries weren't the problem. Pitching was.

The Yankees were better than the Sox in 2010. And what's worse, the Yankees will GET better in 2011. Will the Red Sox? They're committed to a rotation loaded with #4 starters. Cliff Lee is a free agent. He might stay in Texas. He might take the big money to go to New York. What are the odds he'll wind up in Boston? He's more likely to play midfield for Liverpool.



Why is it the Red Sox can "win" bidding wars for unproven talents like Daisuke Matsuzaka? Why is it they can win bidding wars for disproven talents like JD Drew? How are the Sox able to keep hold of near value-less commodities like Josh Beckett?

If the Sox lose a bidding war to the Yankees, that's fine. But it better be one hell of a war. They'd better offer more than he's worth, because the Sox currently pay JD Drew, John Lackey, Mike Lowell, Daisuke Matsuzaka, David Ortiz, and Jason Varitek more than their worth. They'd better force the Yankees to sign Lee to a 10 year, $330 million deal, or something ludicrous.

How can you "overpay" for someone when the value of signing him is that you catapult from a 3rd place team to a World Series favorite?

We make fun of the Yankees for trying to buy the World Series. But the Red Sox spent $162.7 million to buy a 3rd place team. The Phillies spent over $20M less and made it to their LCS. The Giants spent $65M less. The Rangers spent over $100 million less.



But let's get past Cliff Lee. What about Adrian Beltre? Or Victor Martinez? They'll likely get signed by some other team for "more than their worth." Again, when did the Sox get so worried about overpaying guys? It must have been after the JD Drew signing, the Mike Lowell extension, the Daisuke Matsuzaka posting fee. And didn't they recently lock down a pitcher who went 6-6 this year, with a 5.78 ERA? So this fear of overpaying is relatively new.

Which productive hitters are the Yankees worried about losing?

So let's be glad that the Yanks won't win ring #28. But the Sox are far, far away from ring #8.

Photo Credits:
AP Photo

WE SHOULD HAVE LOST

When was the last time the Patriots tried a quarterback sneak on 3rd/4th down, and failed? I can't remember the last time the QB sneak didn't work. So why is BJG Ellis running off tackle on a 4th and 1? I didn't mind the call to go for it, although I'd prefer a punt. But use the sneak, which has worked seemingly 100% of the time the last 10 years.

We'd all hoped that the Patriots' 4th quarter struggles were behind them. They dominated the 4th against Baltimore. But yesterday, the Pats were pathetic in the 4th.

Thankfully, the Chargers' special teams is awful.

But this game should have been won before that missed field goal. It should have been won when the Patriots got to the San Diego 16 but were forced to kick a field goal. It should have been won with those other field goal drives before the 4th quarter. Those sacks in the Red Zone were simply awful, and they kept the Chargers in the game.

The Pats made 5 trips to the Red Zone, and only scored 2 touchdowns. Inexcusable.

I'm not very excited about this team. They're showing the same offensive Red Zone struggles that plagued them in years past. The defense can't be relied on to win games. But it was the defense that won this game. They forced the turnovers, they kept San Diego to 20 points.

But the offense has to score in the Red Zone. They have to win the time of possession battle.

The Pats host the Vikings Sunday afternoon. Minnesota is 0-3 on the road, they have a turnover happy QB, a coach trying to control him, and a receiver that gives up on a potential TD catch because he's about to get hit.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

OPEN FOR BUSINESS

It's hard not be excited right now. Granted, it's October. The important months of the season are an entire winter, plus big chunks of fall and spring, away. But the Bruins have a stellar goalie in net, forwards who can score, defensemen who can defend, guys who can fight, guys who can pass, guys who can hit, guys who can check. This is the best I've seen the Bruins play since they swept the Canadiens in '09.

And there's the chance to improve. Tyler Seguin is already seeing the ice, and feeling the play like a 3 year veteran. Savard and Sturm are on the mend. Nine players on the roster are under 25.

But there's also room to improve. Tim Thomas had a simply stupendous night last night. But even before the silly goal he allowed, I intended to mention that he seemed a bit too confident and aggressive. I don't mind when he ventures a few feet out of the crease. But when the distance between him and the net is expressed in yards, not feet, I get a little concerned.

Then there was the puck handling. Not only was he struggling with it all night, his decisions to handle the puck at all were flat out stupid.

The goal Thomas allowed was a rarity. Almost never is a goal 100% the goalie's fault. This one was. Ference had 3 or 4 strides on Chimera. Even if Chimera was going to catch up, Ference was in perfect position to prevent any shot on net.

Thomas has every right to be thrilled at being back to Vezina form. But he needs to temper that excitement, and just do his job. Which he did pretty well last night.

Speaking of mistakes, Blake Wheeler made them almost every time he was on the ice. Awful shots, bad passes, turnovers, defensive miscues, general confusion. He's useless. At least Ryder's remembered how to be a goal scorer.

But I don't know how much longer Wheeler should be allowed to dress. When Sturm comes back, I'd rather have an energy guy like Caron on the ice. I guess you could take Marchand off, but who leaves when Savard returns?

The Bruins had severe difficulty moving the puck out of their own zone. In the 1st period, Thomas had to save the game multiple times because of this. Then with a 2-0 lead, Washington pressed, and it all happened again. This has been a glaring flaw for the Bruins for years, exposed most memorably by Carolina in 2009.

Defensemen don't have to score goals to contribute to the offense. They just have to move the puck forward. That also helps a great deal on defense. For years, B's fans have clamored for "a puck moving defenseman." Well, the team needs about four of those, not just one.

But back to positives:

Bergeron had a classic Bergeron game, and got 2 assists to show for it.

Boychuk remains a psycho.

Jordan Caron is fighting for that ice time, and he's winning the fight.



Chara and the defense put the hurt on Ovechkin, especially Seidenberg.



BUNDLED!

Horton has a point in all 5 games so far.

Lucic was effective on the boards, and in front of the net. I like seeing him on the PP unit, causing mayhem in the crease.

Rechhi as the point man for the PP unit seemed to work pretty well. We'll see what happens when opposing penalty killers challenge him at the blue-line. Nevertheless, the power-play looked vastly improved.

Ryder's trade value went up a notch.

Seguin is the total package. He can shoot, he can do the smart things defensively, and the kid can pass anywhere, anytime. If he ever gets paired with another player who can score like him, the flying circus shall commence.



Shawn Thornton's line was physical, they altered the flow of the game, and they left an impression.

I'm pretty excited. In case you can't tell by the length of this post recapping the 5th game of the regular season.

Bruins host the Rangers on Saturday night.

Photo Credits:
AP Photo

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS: WEEK 8*

Last weekend my picks went 6-1, buoying my season record (against the spread) to 16-10-2. There are a few titanic clashes this Saturday, but there are also many seemingly smaller games that will have major implications within conferences. This week, I got my odds from Doc's Sports Services. All these games are on Saturday.

12:00 PM - ESPN
#7 Michigan State Spartans @ Northwestern Wildcats
This just feels like one of those crazy games. There's no logical reasoning for it, but I feel as though MSU has absolutely no shot to win this game. Northwestern +5.5.

3:30 PM - CBS
#6 LSU Tigers @ #4 Auburn Tigers
Biggest game of the day as two 7-0 SEC West contenders meet. I'm going with LSU +6, but mainly because I think it will be a close game. Also, Auburn's going to get unlucky, and one of these near-losses will become a loss.



3:30 PM - ABC
#16 Nebraska Cornhuskers @ #14 Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oklahoma State has yet to struggle on offense. Oklahoma State has yet to meet a defense like Nebraska's. Nebraska -5.5.



3:30 PM - ABC/ESPN
#13 Wisconsin Badgers @ #15 Iowa Hawkeyes
The hangover of a big win has been well-documented the last two seasons. That, and the game being in Iowa, is why I'm taking the Hawkeyes -5.5 I'd prefer a spread below 4, and in real life I might avoid this one. But less than a TD is enough for me.



3:30 PM - ESPNU
UConn Huskies @ Louisville Cardinals
I'm taking UConn +1 here. I might be the last person in the country that still thinks they're a decent team. But Louisville is utter garbage.



7:30 PM - ESPN2
UNC Tar Heels @ Miami Hurricanes
The U has been very inconsistent this year. You can classify them as a disappointment, but also as a pleasant surprise. They're still very much in contention to win their Division. They should handle the controversy-plagued Heels. Miami -6.5



7:30 PM - ESPN 3
Georgia Bulldogs @ Kentucky Wildcats
UGA sucks. Yet somehow, they're the favorites against 4-3 Kentucky, in Lexington. I'm taking UK +4.



8:00 PM - ABC
#1 Oklahoma Sooners @ #11 Missouri Tigers
I'm not entirely confident. #1 teams seem to be cursed. Mizzou is good. OU hasn't impressed me that much. And the game is in Columbia. That being said, I'll take the #1 team in the country -3 pretty much every time.



10:15 PM - ESPN
Washington Huskies @ #18 Arizona Wildcats
I just don't think Washington is very good. Arizona -6.5.

A CAPITAL "W"

This was the biggest test of the year for the Bruins. New Jersey had been scuffling. But the Caps had been excelling. And the Bruins went down to Washington and won 3-1.

It is once again Tim Thomas time, folks. All the Tuukka Rask fans can pout, but Tim Thomas, so far, is back to Vezina form. He had more than a few big saves early on that maintained a 0-0 score until Horton and Krejci hooked up in the 1st.



I'm in love with Nathan Horton already. Unlike useless forwards like Ryder and Wheeler, Horton just understands what to do with the puck. He has good instincts, he's calm, he's precise, he's an NHL forward. Everything he does has a purpose. There's little hesitation, and no confusion.

Goaltending is an equation of time and space. How much time will some space be open for a shot to slip past. Horton's pass to Krejci, and then Krejci's sharpshooter strike, was an example of forwards defeating the goaltender's time/space equation. The space was closing, but Horton passed perfectly to Krejci, and Krejci shot in time to beat the goalie. Beautiful stuff.

Milan Lucic has added goal scoring to his repertoire. He's tallied 3 already. It took him 16 games to score 3 goals in 09-10. He's been hanging out in the slot, utilizing his quick hands, and outmuscling/outworking his opponent. Not only is he a junk-goal-junkie, he's a warrior on the boards, winning one-on-one battles about 2/3 of the time.

Speaking of warriors, Gregory Campbell is quickly becoming one of my favorite players. The Bruins need guys like this, who have an identity as a player. Blake Wheeler is still trying to find himself. And Michael Ryder is a finesse player that lacks the skills and poise to be any good. Campbell will not score, except by accident. Even his occasional assists will be by default. But he can alter the tempo and pace of a game.

If the Bruins could get their Power Play working, look out. That might change when/if Savard returns. Sturm also helps that unit.

If this team keeps its head about them, if they learn that killer instinct, if they learn how to turn a flesh wound into a mortal wound, how to turn a cut into a gash, an injury into a kill; they can do some serious damage in the Spring.

Capitals @ Bruins in the home opener Thursday. Are you pumped? Because I'm pumped.



Photo Credits:
AP Photo

BRADY TO BRANCH

Fun fact, the tickets for yesterday's Patriots games, which were mailed to season-ticket holders many months ago, featured an image of Randy Moss.

It was hard not to have flashbacks of 2003 and 2004 yesterday. Looking back at the Pats' historic (and still unmatched) 21 game win streak, you see lots of weird scores. 9-3, 12-0, even a 23-20 overtime win at Houston.

It wasn't pretty. Then again, we've been bitching about this team falling short in the 4th quarter. So let's enjoy them dominating the final phase of the game. The Pats held the Ravens to 31 yards in the 4th.

The Patriots' offense also wasn't pretty. Neither was it ugly. Danny Woodhead amassed 115 yards of offense. Deion Branch caught 9 passes for 98 yards and a score. While that was going on, BJG Ellis had a Maroneylike 20 yards on 10 carries. Brady's numbers were also unimpressive.

The defense came up with the big plays. Unlike the last 20 or 30 games, they were able to stop the opposing offense on 3rd downs. Baltimore only converted 5 of 16 3rd downs. The Ravens were held to 99 yards on the ground (2.9 per carry).



There were shades of 03-04, as the big defensive plays came from random guys like Jermaine Cunningham. That being said, the Ravens' offense is hardly dynamic. The Ravens run, and not amazingly so. Their passing offense is mediocre and simple. Even the Pats' secondary can handle it.

Also, the Patriots were at home, where they haven't lost a regular season game since 2008. Also, the Patriots were coming out of a bye week. 2002 was the last time they lost after a bye week. They had two weeks to prepare for Baltimore. The Ravens only had a week, and all their film of the Pats' offense was less relevant, as the gameplan would be much different without Moss.

But I look at the NFL standings, and the Patriots are right at the top. They have the 2nd best record in a League loaded with mediocrity. 12 teams are either at .500, or one game above or below. These games, and ultimately the season, will be decided by the slimmest of margins. The teams that can make big plays, avoid stupid penalties (Meriweather, that's you), will be the team that goes the furthest.

Patriots at the 2-4 Chargers next week.