Thursday, April 07, 2011

FROZEN FOUR PREVIEW

For the first time since 2005, not a single New England team made the Frozen Four. While that reduces my interest, at least the final will probably be more entertaining than the basketball final. I wouldn't be shocked if teams shot for higher percentages than Butler did.

Before reading further, bear in mind that I was wrong on all four of my Frozen Four picks.

The semifinals will be broadcast on ESPN2 this evening starting at 5, with the Championship game on ESPN Saturday night.

NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH vs. MINNESOTA-DULUTH BULLDOGS
Playing in St. Paul gives UMD the home ice edge. The Bulldogs also have a pretty good defense and penalty kill. Notre Dame only has a few big scoring threats, and the Bulldogs should be able to shut those down. I also like UMD goalie Kenny Reiter, who acquitted himself well against Union and Yale. I'm picking the Bulldogs to win 3-2.

MICHIGAN WOLVERINES vs. NORTH DAKOTA FIGHTING SIOUX
The Sioux are certainly the most talented team left. St. Paul is home away from home for North Dakota, as they won the WCHA tournament there a few weeks back. They haven't lost since January, and they have arguably the best player in college hockey: Matt Frattin (36 goals, 24 assists in 43 games). Michigan will struggle to keep up with the scoring, and their goaltending isn't a big strength. North Dakota triumphs 5-2.


North Dakota is also my pick to win it all.

BRUINS INCH CLOSER TO #2 SEED

The Bruins are only 2 points out of 2nd in the Eastern Conference after beating the Islanders 3-2 last night. It was a game without stakes, without consequences, and wasn't very interesting. But it was a win.

What drew my attention most was the Bruins' special teams units. They continue to struggle. The PK unit allowed a goal. The Power Play unit failed to move and failed to score, even with a 2 minute 5-on-3. They even allowed a shorthanded goal. But give Michael Grabner and Josh Bailey credit for that one. The Bruins may have won 3-2, but they lost the special teams battle 2-0.

Special teams are so vital in postseason play because most playoff games are played against the boards, within tight coverage, and very little open ice play. When power plays come along, they're a rare opportunity to play with space and time. If the Bruins can't get their PP unit to score, they need to at least tighten up their PK.

I was puzzled to see Seguin, Kampfer, and Hnidy all scratched. This seems like a great chance to give minutes to all three. Perhaps over the weekend.

Daniel Paille has played himself onto the playoff roster. He's been doing all the little things and some big things the past few weeks. He had another excellent game last night.

And how cool is it to see Shawn Thornton score his 10th goal? He, along with Gregory Campbell, are among 6 NHL players to score 10+ times and fight 10+ times this season.

The Bruins play back to back games this weekend, hosting Ottawa Saturday afternoon, and travelling to Jersey on Sunday. Look for guys like Thomas, Chara, Lucic, Recchi, and Bergeron to get at least one game off. Look for Paille, Campbell, Ryder, Thornton, Kelly, and Seguin to get a chance to earn a spot in the starting lineup with some additional ice time.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

DICE-L

I really thought Daisuke was going to turn the Sox' fortunes around last night. He's always done well against Cleveland. And they tend to be free swingers. I was wrong.

He wasn't awful. But in typical Daisuke fashion, even when he does well, he fails to do well for long enough. And while it was the bullpen that ultimately lost this game, Daisuke gave the bullpen a chance to lose it, by only going 5 innings.

And during those 5 innings, he nibbled. And he nibbled. He threw a joke of a 90 MPH fastball right down the middle to Choo, and it was crushed. He nibbled some more. He walked batters. He hit a batter. He allowed 10 baserunners in 5 innings.

But he didn't lose this game by himself. Not by a longshot. Ellsbury struck out 3 times and went 0 for 5. We're still waiting for him to hit. Youkilis went 0 for 4, continuing his struggles. And Varitek messed up a defensive play, turning what should have been an out into a Cleveland run. His mistake of not tagging Buck at the plate was inexcusable for a veteran and a "Captain."

Then the bullpen. That's worrying me more than anything else right now. The starting pitching is what it is. The offense will inevitably improve. Guys like Ellsbury and Youkilis are not sub-.200 hitters. They'll come around. The bullpen, however, has been nothing but a disaster so far. Dan Wheeler was supposed to be the 2nd set-up man alongside Bard. He's allowed 2 homeruns already. And Reyes was supposed to add depth. He's only added mass, and a heavy ERA.

A few bright notes from last night: Gonzalez hit his first homerun with the team. And Crawford got on base, then ran, stealing his first 2 bases of the season.

The rotoation starts all over again, and maybe that's what this club needs. Lester faces Fausto Carmona, who allowed 10 runs in 3 innings against Chicago. First pitch at 12:05 this afternoon.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Wednesday, April 06, 2011

STILL WINLESS

So long as the Orioles are in first place, the season hasn't really, fully begun. It's still in that opening phase, in which averages and ERAs range from 0 to the high hundreds. It's not time to panic. It's not time to even worry. It is time to think, though.

And I think Josh Beckett is going to give us a very disappointing year. I know it's just one game, and 3 runs in 5 innings isn't atrocious. But he looked so inconsistent with his pitches. Sometimes the fastball had bite. Sometimes it just floated up there. And when Cleveland stopped swinging early, Beckett started to struggle.

I feel like giving the offense a pass in this one. The Sox tend to struggle against young, unknown, unfamiliar pitchers like Josh Tomlin. And last night's weather in Cleveland was hardly conducive to offense. And free passes are easy to give in April.

But the Red Sox will need to hit in order to win with the likes of Beckett and Lackey on the mound.

And now comes Daisuke, who faces the Indians' Mitch Talbot. I actually think Daiske is going to dazzle in this game.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Tuesday, April 05, 2011

BRUINS BLOW 3-0 LEAD

You wonder why I'm so negative about this team. Games like this one stick in my memory more than 3-2 wins over Atlanta. Games like this one not only hurt, they scare me.

The Bruins took a 3-0 lead, taking advantage of a worn out Rangers team. Then McQuaid makes a mistake, and it's 3-1. Then more defensive lapses, and it's 3-2. But the penalty killing unit seems to sap New York's momentum, and the Bruins get back to sensible hockey.

Then comes the 3rd period. The exhausted Rangers summon their final ounces of energy, and pressure the Bruins. As we've seen again and again, the Bruins failed to put away a desperate team.

McQuaid and Kaberle made the two most glaring defensive mistakes. Both of them assumed their teammates would win a battle, and moved to positions to receive a pass. Instead, their teammates lost their battles, and dangerous amounts of space was opened up. McQuaid surrendered the middle of the ice on Vaclav Prospal's first goal. And Kaberle left the crease open, giving Brandon Dubinsky all the time and space he needed to deke out Thomas.

In the defensive zone, you can't assume your teammates are going to win the puck. You have to react and play DEFENSIVELY. Weird concept, eh?

There were also numerous defensive shortcomings by Andrew Ference. I'd rather see Hnidy out there. I'm tired of watching Ference lose battles. Kaberle isn't much of a defensive defenseman either, but at least he can pass and score.

And the game-winning goal came when the Bruins collapsed into the slot. But none of them took a body. They tried fishing for the puck. Which is exactly what the Rangers did to allow Horton's goal in the 1st. In that type of frantic situation, you have to tie up your opponents' stick. The puck will randomly bounce around, but at least if it finds your opponents' stick, they won't be able to do anything with it.

Statistically, the Bruins are one of the best defensive teams in the NHL. 4th fewest goals allowed. But in tough situations in big games, they make so many inexcusable defensive errors. Claude Julien might have implemented a masterful defensive plan in Boston, but it relies too much on the opponent playing predictable, traditional, station-to-station hockey. In other words, not the brand of hockey you see in the playoffs.

The Bruins finish the season against some non-contending teams. It's a good chance to give Thomas a break, and to play guys like Seguin and Kampfer. B's host the Islanders Wednesday night.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Monday, April 04, 2011

BRUINS WIN SCRIMMAGE

Atlanta is not a good team. Atlanta played a very flat game. The Bruins played 45 flat minutes, and 15 minutes with energy. That's why they won. And this team continues to frustrate the hell out of me, even when they win.

Michael Ryder scored a goal on a penalty shot, and that's great. He's been playing well lately, and that's great. He has had some good playoff series in the past, and that's great. But he's not consistent. He might go on a tear and score some goals in the first round. Then he'll disappear. He's my least favorite player on the Bruins because even when he scores, he pisses me off. I mean, where was it 2 weeks ago, Ryder?

The last time the Bruins played at their best, and beat a legit team that was also playing at their best, was February 26th in Vancouver. That's too long ago. The Bruins now have 4 games left to build good habits, and get ready for the postseason.

Tonight will be a good test, as they play the Rangers, who only have a 2 point cushion between themselves and 9th place Carolina.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

DON'T WEEP ABOUT THE SWEEP

All the anticipation for Opening Day and then the Rangers outscore the Sox 26-11 in three games. Don't panic yet, though. The Sox can still win those magical 100 games, if that's what you care about. They'd just have to go 100-59 in the remaining 159 games. And that's certainly possible.

Had the Sox done well this weekend, I would have been my wet blanket self, and pleaded for everyone to settle down, as it's only April. Well it is only April, and so therefore I'm not too worried about what we saw in Texas.

Jon Lester is a perennial slow starter. From 2008 to 2010, he went 3-5 in April, with a 4.58 ERA. So we shouldn't worry about his struggles on Friday.

Carl Crawford is going to improve. He broke out a bit on Sunday, after going hitless in the first two games, and being demoted in the lineup.

Clay Buchholz allowed 4 runs off 4 homers. Apart from those occasional mistakes he was spot on. It's not as if he was allowing 4 or 5 hits in an inning, and being ripped apart by the Rangers' batters. He made some big mistakes, but not many, and give Texas some credit for capitalizing.

And there were some positives this weekend. Adrian Gonzalez has settled right in. 5 for 9 over the weekend with a double and 3 RBI. I feel a burst of homeruns coming from him.

And there doesn't seem to be the annual Ortiz slump in April. Two homeruns already. And when he pulled the ball, he hit it hard enough to get it through the shifted infield. That's a very good sign.

Now to the bad news. John Lackey looked awful the second time through the lineup. Everyone's hoping he improves on his 2010 performance, but none of us (my pessimistic self included) considered that he might get worse.

And the bullpen needs to be "sorted out," to put it mildly. I don't put much stock in Papelbon's struggles on Sunday, as it was a non-save situation after he'd been sitting all weekend. I don't think he even warmed up once. The other pieces to the bullpen puzzle will take some time and some headaches to fall in place.

One thing I hope you all learned this weekend is how important pitching is. The starting pitcher is literally the ONLY player who can singlehandedly lose a game for his team. They're also capable of doing the most to help his team win. Lackey lost Saturday's game, pretty much on his own. And on Sunday, Matt Harrison's 7 innings did more to help Texas win than any of their homerun hitters.

So buck up, there are 159 games left. I mean, Baltimore's in first place. It's not yet time to take things so seriously.


Red Sox at Cleveland for three, starting on Tuesday.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Friday, April 01, 2011

TAKE THE GUN, LEAF THE CANNOLI

The Bruins finally played someone who played with effort and determination. And they lost. And without some soft goaltending by James Reimer, they would have lost badly.

It's the same laundry list of problems for the Bruins. Not managing the puck well. Not being able to breakout of their own zone. Not hustling for loose pucks. And a boring Power Play.

For about 2 seasons now, the B's have tried the same static, motionless Power Play strategy. How come they haven't tried something different? It's so easy for opposing PK groups to sit in a box formation, and play the predictable passing lanes, allowing the Bruins to pass around the box, but not into it. Moving bodies around moves those lanes around, which forces the penalty killers to move. That can lead to 2-on-1s in shooting areas. That leads to quality shots, which lead to goals.

The Bruins continue to drift toward the playoffs. And if they step it up in the postseason, then great. But I'd rather see them build some good habits now, and try to maintain those habits for an extended period.

Bruins host the Thrashers Saturday afternoon.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo