Friday, November 16, 2012

Miguel Cabrera Wins MVP, Stats Geeks Can't Quantify their Rage

Had Mike Trout won the AL MVP, I wouldn't have agreed with it, but I would have understood. He had a great season. But Miguel Cabrera winning the MVP has incensed a sect of baseball nerds that worship numbers and believe that stats are the only thing in baseball that matters.

Here's why Miguel Cabrera won:

1. He won the Triple Crown, which is a statistical rarity in this sport. Hitting for power and hitting for average is a tough balance.

2. He performed well in the clutch. He had a 1.032 OPS in September when the Tigers needed to win to make the playoffs. Throughout the season he hit .356 with runners in scoring position, and .420 with runners in scoring position and 2 outs.

3. He was more valuable.

He was just better than Trout. Deal with it. All your WAR and UZR and your numerology mean nothing. At the very least, he and Trout are on equal footing. In which case, give deference to the player whose team made the playoffs. And give deference to the player who won the Triple Crown.

The arguments against Cabrera are shallow. The numerologists argue that a certain set of stats can accurately determine what a players value is? Really? Because the designation "Most Valuable Player" brings so much ambiguity with it. It requires subjectivity and human opinion in order to determine which player is the most valuable.

There is no objective, statistical measurement of value. There is no empirical way to determine which player is more valuable than another. So any argument based solely on stats is incomplete, and invalid.

Miguel Cabrera is the MVP, and the baseball stat gurus are crying their imaginary numbers (i's) out.

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Red Sox Shouldn't React to Blue Jays Trade

The Toronto Blue Jays and Miami Marlins agreed to a massive trade yesterday. Toronto received Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, John Buck, and Emilio Bonifacio. And while the deal certainly makes Toronto a better team, it should not affect what the Red Sox do in any way.

I'm worried that the Sox, in response to this move, might seek to make a splash of their own. This would be unwise. Let the fans whine and moan about the Sox being the 5th best team in the division (which they already were in 2012). The Red Sox should stick to their plan, worry about themselves, improve as much as they can this off-season without sacrificing their ability to continue to improve.

It's going to take more than one off-season, and more than one or two moves to improve the Sox. They're a 69 win team and finding 25+ additional wins will take some time. Likely more than one off-season.

So calm down, Red Sox Nation. It's your panic that can trigger Larry Lucchino to call Ben Cherington and say "we need to do something."

There really isn't much out there for the Sox to acquire. I'd like to see Zach Greinke here, but he might be too expensive. Mike Napoli doesn't impress me. I wouldn't mind Josh Hamilton, especially with Jacoby Ellsbury getting his luggage ready.

The Sox have money, but that's no excuse to spend carelessly. They need to be prudent. I'm reminded of The Simpsons episode with the monorail.



The Sox need to listen to Marge and fix Main Street's potholes before investing in a shiny mass transit system.

Although I wouldn't put it past Lucchino to build an elevated monorail line that encircled Fenway Park, with stops at the Monster, the bleachers, the Bud Deck, and Yawkey Way.

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Boston Students Surprised With Scholarships at Celtics Game

Last Wednesday a pair of Boston high school students were surprised with $5,000 scholarships in a ceremony before the Celtics/Wizards game at the TD Garden. As part of the Sun Life Rising Star program, Celtics co-owner Steva Pagliuca and executives from Sun Life Financial awarded checks to Terel Andrews from the Jeremiah E. Burke School and Vicki Miranda from East Boston High School. A pair of $50,000 grants were also awarded to the nonprofit organizations City Year and Sociedad Latina, which Terel and Vicki have been involved with, respectively.

Terel is a football player at the Burke School and as part of his service with City Year traveled to Cape Verde where he volunteered as an English tutor. Among the colleges he is considering are Framingham State, Salem State, and Thomas College.

Vickie is a Youth Community Organizer at Sociedad Latina. She also sits on the Youth Advisory Board of the Nellie Mae Education Foundation and has worked the past three summers at Brigham & Women’s Hospital in the Center for Community Health. She is considering attending the Massachusetts College of Pharmacy and Health Sciences, Northeastern, Simmons College, UMass-Amherst, and UMass-Lowell.

The guests of honor were treated to a pre-game court visit. They then enjoyed the game, which the Celtics won 100-94, from the luxurious Garden View Suite. After the game, they had a meet and greet with Celtics guard Avery Bradley.


They even got to try on Steve Pagliuca's NBA Championship ring.


In 2012 the Sun Life Rising Star program will award two scholarships and two grants in six cities: Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Houston, Philadelphia, and Phoenix. The program will also award four scholarships and four grants in South Florida. Since its inception, the program has awarded nearly $3 million to 54 students and 47 nonprofit organizations across the country.

Patriots Win, Fans Act Like They Lost

I think the 3 Super Bowls, the 21 game win streak in 2003-04, and the near perfect season of 2007 have spoiled us in New England. The Patriots are 6-3 and have a 2 game lead in their division. But if you didn't know they beat the Bills 37-31 Sunday, you'd think fans and media in this town were reacting to a loss.

I can't believe of all people, I am the one advocating for optimism here. The Pats have problems but so does every other NFL team. Is Matt Schaub an elite QB for Houston? The Giants lost to the Bengals. The Falcons lost to the Saints. The 49ers tied the lowly Rams. What NFL team is significantly or even marginally better than the Patriots?

What does irk me about this team is the lack of "door-closing" plays by the offense. The Pats have the highest scoring offense in football. My problem with them isn't what they do or don't do, it's when they do or don't do it.

A perfect example was in the 4th quarter yesterday when Devin McCourty forced Fred Jackson to fumble. The Patriots offense then went 3 and out, including a Wes Welker drop, and punted. They took 19 seconds off the clock.

It was only their 8th 3 and out of the season, and their only 3 and out of the game. But it came at a time when they had an opportunity to at least run out the clock a bit, move the ball close to midfield, and force Buffalo to drive more than the 45 yards they had to on their next possession.

Another missed opportunity to seal victory came when the Patriots drove into the Red Zone and settled for a field goal. Stevan Ridley's false start was the keynote of that drive's end.

The Patriots defense isn't good. The pass rush is inconsistent, some of the most talented players are also young and inexperienced, and the secondary is Swiss cheese. As bad as they are though, Devin McCourty made more big plays in the 4th quarter than Wes Welker did.

The offense has the talent, they have the capability of ending games. They don't need to score 40 or 50 points to cover for an atrocious offense. They do need to take advantage of opportunities to clinch victory.

And maybe we all need to take a step back and adjust our perspective on this team. Let's enjoy their successes instead of criticizing every imperfection in those successes. Let's hope for perfection, but accept imperfect success.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Red Sox Pursuing Mike Napoli... But Should They Be?

Both the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees seem to be interested in the services of Mike Napoli. I'm not entirely sold on Napoli. It all depends on the price.

At his best, he's an excellent player. He's capable of an OBP above .400 and SLG above .600 and surpassing 30 homeruns. However, he's only been at his best for selected parts of his career.

He's only managed to play 120+ games once in his career. He's only hit above .300 once, only reached a .400 OBP once, only reached .500 SLG twice. His career numbers good but not great.

He was paid $9.4 million last year after arbitration. Napoli filed for $11.5 million in that process. Considering he's only had one 140 game season, and one All-Star caliber season, I don't think he's worth much more than that. And certainly not worth a long-term deal at significant money.

The Red Sox do have money to spend, but that's not sufficient reason to spend it. Think about it. If you find a $20 bill on the street do you instantly spend it, just because you have it?

If they can get Napoli at a decent price, then he'd improve the team. The price and length of the deal is everything. I don't want to see this team repeat its mistakes by committing money to unpredictable players just because it can.

Friday, November 09, 2012

Oh Yeah, the World Baseball Classic Is Next Year

Remember the World Baseball Classic? Yeah, that meaningless tournament that Daisuke Matsuzaka prioritized ahead of being a member of the Red Sox. Well it's back.

The WBC will be held in 2013, but the Qualifying rounds have already started. Spain won a round-robin tournament to advance, and so did Canada. Brazil, Panama, Nicaragua, and Columbia will vie for another spot. And Thailand, the Philippines, New Zealand, and Chinese Taipei will compete for another.

Johnny Damon will compete on the Thai team. Apparently his mother is Thai.

The automatically qualified teams are:
Japan, China, Cuba (to play first round games in Japan)
South Korea, the Netherlands, Australia (to play in Taiwan)
Venezuela, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic (to play in Puerto Rico)
USA, Mexico, Italy (to play in Arizona)

It'd be a nice tournament if the games weren't played during Spring Training. Major League players are at their worst shape of the year and their training routines are strictly monitored by their MLB clubs. Except Daisuke's. The Red Sox just let him do what he wanted.

So on paper it's an interesting event. In actuality, expect Cuba to win because their players are terrified of their government, and this competitions is the biggest event of the year for them.

Roberto Luongo Can't Help But Be a Douchebag

So as we all know, Barack Obama won the Presidential election two days ago. All well and good, until some French-Canadian douchebag decided to chime in and attempt to goad an adversary from spring 2011.



For full disclosure, nobody is 100% certain who runs the Twitter account @stromebone1. It is widely believed to be Roberto Luongo, but it's not verified.

In any case, Tim Thomas was a good goalie, Roberto Luongo is an overrated, washed up, choker. Tim Thomas did his best when it mattered most. For Luongo, the more the game mattered, the worse he played.

Even if @strombone1 is just a Luongo fan, he's seriously misguided.

Thomas has a few things in his impenetrable subterranean bunker that Luongo doesn't have. A Conn Smythe, for instance. As well as a Stanley Cup ring. Although Timmy has probably melted his ring in order to make bullets.

Ignorant College Football Picks*

This post includes pictures of scantily clad females showing school pride and lots of skin. My picks were 12-7 last week, bringing my total record to 58-55-1. After 114 picks I'm 3 games over .500... ship it... here are my picks:

UConn +3 vs. Pitt
Always like UConn.

Louisville -1.5 @ Syracuse
Crazy to take a 9-0 team over a 4-5 team.

Iowa -5 vs. Purdue
In Iowa, give the edge to the Hawkeyes.


Iowa State +10.5 @ Texas
Don't think UT will cover.

Texas Tech -25.5 vs. Kansas
KU sucks.

North Carolina -8 vs. Georgia Tech
UNC is pretty good this year.


Akron -16.5 vs. UMass
UMass has struggled to adjust to FBS.

Stanford -4 vs. Oregon State
I like the Cardinal.

Oklahoma -21.5 vs. Baylor
Sooners should roll.

West Virginia +9.5 @ Oklahoma State
Should at least be close.

Minnesota -3 @ Illinois
The Gophers are better.

Texas A&M +13.5 @ Alabama
Big spread, Bama could be hungover.


Georgia -14.5 @ Auburn
The Tigers are struggling.

Ole Miss -3.5 vs. Vanderbilt
Why not?

TCU +7.5 vs. Kansas State
Just a feeling.


Notre Dame -18.5 vs. Boston College
Yeah.

Oregon -28 @ Cal
Not a spread big enough for the Ducks.