Wednesday, August 01, 2012

Red Sox Make Small Moves on Deadline Day

On Monday I wrote that I didn't want the Sox to be buyers or sellers on Deadline Day. I wanted them to do nothing. That's essentially what they did.

They traded Matt Albers and Scott Podsednik to the Diamondbacks for Craig Breslow. Albers was a righty, Breslow is a lefty. Breslow's pitched in 40 games this year for Arizona and has a respectable 2.70 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. You may remember him from 2006 when he made 13 appearances for the Sox.

The Sox also traded Lars Anderson to Cleveland for Steven Wright. Here's a highlight video:


He's actually a minor league knuckle-ball pitcher. He's 27 years old, and is 9-6 with a 2.49 ERA in AA Akron this year. He hasn't had much success in the minors. But he hasn't been a failure either.

A very dull Deadline Day for the Sox. I'm glad they didn't give up any young talent. They have a chance to make the playoffs this year, but they're not Championship contenders. And if they do win, it will be because of the players they have, not any additional pieces.

Rain and Red Sox Beat Tigers

The Red Sox should thank the Rain gods this morning. With Josh Beckett leaving early, the Sox' bullpen was going to have to work extra hard to get to the 9th inning. Franklin Morales was on the verge of breaking down when the game was halted, and eventually called, giving the Sox a 4-1 victory.

The Sox deserved the win. They scored 4 runs off Verlander in 5 innings, and that's worthy of a 'W' in and of itself. The rain simply gave the Sox an assist, made it easier to complete the victory.

Clay Mortensen was excellent. Just another role player in a long line of role players to pick up the team when a star disappoints them. Mortensen literally did Josh Beckett's job last night. He went 3 scoreless innings, allowed 1 hit and walked 3.

This was a good win for the Sox to have. They got some bad luck with Beckett's "injury," but Mortensen compensated for that setback. They took advantage of Verlander, and they took advantage of the weather.

Baseball is a game of opportunities, and the Sox capitalized on their opportunities last night.

The Sox go for the sweep tonight. Aaron Cook faces Rick Porcello. Cook needs a good start after being smashed by the Yankees for 6 runs. Porcello is strictly mediocre and the Sox should hit him. Ellsbury is 5 for 5 against him with a homer.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Monday, July 30, 2012

What Should the Red Sox Do at the Deadline?

Should the Red Sox be buyers or sellers? The correct answer is "no." The Sox should neither buy or sell, unless presented with extremely juicy deals.

If the Red Sox were a blackjack hand, they'd be a hard 16. The trickiest hand to play. Do you hit and likely bust? Do you stay and likely get beaten by the dealer? No matter what you do, it probably won't work out. Your best hope is the dealer busts.

The Sox are only 4 games out of a Wild Card spot, but they have 4 teams to leapfrog over. They're 10th out of 14 teams in the American League. They're not quite out of it, and not quite into it.

It's conceivable that if Beckett and Lester pitch up to their capabilities, the Red Sox could go on a serious run. They could claim a Wild Card spot, win the play-in, and even win a playoff series.

But there is no move (apart from acquiring Felix Hernandez), that could spark this run. Trade deadline moves typically add missing or complimentary parts to help an already well-run machine function at peak efficiency.

The Sox are more than just a tune-up or a spare part away from playing well. They already have an abundance of bit players. What's kept them from winning has been their best two pitchers playing like their two worst pitchers.

And if the Sox do go on a run, it will be because those pitchers perform at their top level. Not because they acquire some right-handed bat at the deadline, or a lefty set-up guy.

The Sox shouldn't sell because they're not out of it. They have a chance.

They shouldn't buy either. They theoretically possess the talent to. If they do win, it will be because of the players already on the roster.

Red Sox Back to .500

The Red Sox are 51-51, thanks to beating the Yankees 2 times out of 3 this weekend. But as much fun as it is to win a series in Yankee Stadium, we all need to take a step back and look at the larger picture.

The Sox have played 102 games and are a .500 team. Why should we expect them to be anything better in the 60 games they have yet to play?

In the first game of the series, Aaron Cook and Mark Melancon were battered around. Melancon has proven to be utterly useless.

In the second game, Jon Lester outpitched CC Sabathia. And typically that would be impressive. But Sabathia sucked, and Lester was mediocre. So while he was better than Sabathia, he was not great.

It was important for Lester to not have a bad start. It was important for him to not get a loss, and for the Sox to win a game he started. It wasn't a very good start though. He gave up 2 homers and 4 runs in 6 innings. He still needs to improve.

Last night Prince Felix Doubront did a very good job, and the Sox squeezed a win out. Alfredo Aceves blew a save but recovered nicely.

If you've allowed yourself to ride the Red Sox emotional roller coaster this season, then right now you might be feeling positive. However, as a whole, they're a strictly .500 team. We're still waiting to see Beckett pitch consistently, and we're waiting for Lester to return to the stable rock he once was.

The Tigers are in town starting tonight. Clay Buchholz faces Max Scherzer. Scherzer is 10-5. He started the season poorly but has pitched well the last two months.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Pennalized State


I think the NCAA got their punishment of Penn State almost perfectly right. They didn't destroy the program, they crippled it and forced it to rebuild itself.

The punishment included a $60 million fine, a 4 year post-season ban, and a reduction of football scholarships. The result of these measures will be the subjugation of the Nittany Lions to a second-tier team. The NCAA will also erase all of Penn State's wins from 1998 onward.

The fine confused me at first. How can you put a price-tag on rape? Then I learned that the $60 million will be going to an endowment for sexual abuse charities. And suddenly it seems like an appropriate amount. It's large, but the University will survive paying it. The NCAA says the amount is equivalent to a year's revenue for the football team.

The post-season ban is very significant. And the Big Ten declared that Penn State won't be eligible for the Big Ten Championship game either. Bowl games are showcases for football programs. And they're cash cows for the conferences. The Big Ten has announced that it will not share its bowl revenues with Penn State, and will instead give that money to charities. That was a very wise decision by the Big Ten.

For 4 years, Penn State will have no hope of a national title, a conference title, or even a bowl game title. That will hurt their wallets and also their recruiting.

The scholarship reduction is the most damaging punishment. Penn State will be allowed 65 full football scholarships, instead of the normal 85. And they will only be allowed to issue 15 new football scholarships per season, instead of 25.

That's a significant blow to recruiting. It means that Penn State will have 20 fewer scholarship athletes than its opponents. And that its recruiting classes will be 40% smaller than their competitors'.

Then there's the indirect punishment of players leaving the team, hoping to play for a program that can make a bowl game, and has more scholarship players and therefore a better chance of winning. Two recruits have already de-committed after these punishments were handed down.

In its punishment, the NCAA allows any football player to transfer without having to sit out a season.

The scholarship reductions will last 4 years.

The length of the punishments ensures that Penn State will struggle for a considerable amount of time. Any freshman player today will know that they'll spend their entire college career on an inferior team that has no hope of post-season play.

These penalties cripple the program and force it to limp along for 4 years, then possibly be rebuilt.

And that's exactly what this football program deserves to do. It deserves to struggle. If new people can rebuild it after struggling, then so be it. To me, Joe Paterno and all the other PSU scumbags who let Sandusky prey on innocent flesh are responsible for crippling the program they held so high. That's justice. They did what they did for the sake of the program. And now their actions and inactions have seriously damaged that beloved program.

I don't agree with the wins being vacated. The NCAA wiped out all Penn State victories from 1998 onward, when the cover-up began. Would they have erased the wins if Paterno didn't have the record for victories?

To me, Paterno's legacy is already a tarnished and tattered ruin. Even if he still had the record for wins, he wouldn't be remembered for that.

And you can't change the past. Penn State won those games and everyone still knows it. Even though Pete Rose can't be inducted into the Hall of Fame, he still has the record for hits.

The NCAA doesn't want Paterno to have the wins record, but he does. If you erase that from the record books, then the record books don't hold the actual records anymore, do they?

Some have argued that the NCAA shouldn't punish Penn State for their off-field sins. I disagree. The program and the school allowed this all to happen. The cover-up was part of the Penn State football program. So therefore the program is eligible to be punished for the cover-up.

The program became more powerful than the school. And as an institution, the program was corrupt. The program should be held accountable for its corruption.

Some have argued that the punishments don't go far enough. Unfortunately, there is no punishment, no matter how severe, that will unrape young boys. And I think that the Penn State football program, under new leadership and administration of course, has the right to rebuild itself and to be something different.

Would eliminating the program entirely accomplish anything positive?

The people who want to eliminate football at Penn State are seeking quick and decisive vengeance. And that's not what punishments are for.

The program has the right to rebuild itself as a clean, less corrupt, less powerful institution. The South had the right to rebuild after the Civil War. Germany had the right to rebuild after World War II. Similarly, PSU has the right to rebuild its football program, but it must keep that program under control.

It was the schools' lack of control that allowed Joe Paterno to become a campus dictator.

Star Wars Call Me Maybe


Whoever did this should win the Academy Award for Best Film Editing. How long did it take to edit this together? I'd say there are over 400 cuts, and each one is precisely perfect. The maker of this had to find all these clips from 6 very long films. And that includes enduring 2 movies with Hayden Christensen in them.

Well done.

Terror in a Texas Ballpark

When Larry Luchhino or Ben Cherington need to make a major decision, they have to call Mike Napoli and get approval. Because he owns the Red Sox. He has a higher career slugging percentage against the Red Sox than any other player. Ever. He slugs .725 against the Sox. Nelson Cruz slugged .710, Babe Ruth slugged .683, Frank Robinson .652, and Lou Gehrig .644.

Last night he hit a 2 run homerun, part of a 9 run Ranger onslaught. And the Red Sox fell below .500 for the first time since June 16th.

Giving up 9 runs to the Rangers is bad, but it's not as depressing as the Red Sox offense was. They were 0 for 7 with runners in scoring position. Crawford didn't get on base, striking out twice. Pedroia got 3 hits, but Adrian Gonzalez got 0 hitting behind him. Ryan Sweeney, the 8th hitter in the lineup, had the best offensive chances. That's not how it's supposed to work.

I don't like Carl Crawford hitting 2nd. I know he's fast. And that's great. But how often will you try stealing bases when your best hitters are coming up? And if those hitters are power hitters, why risk stealing 2nd when you're still able to score from 1st on a double? And anyway, the #2 hitter's main purpose is to get on base. Which Crawford hasn't been great at in his career. His .333 career OBP doesn't justify his hitting in either of the top 2 spots of the lineup.

I'd prefer to see Crawford at the bottom of the order, hitting 7th, 8th, or 9th. Then he can use his speed to help the bottom of the order generate a few extra runs.

Hitting Crawford 2nd pushes everyone back a spot, which also reduces their at-bats. He also strikes out far too often for a top of the lineup kind of guy who doesn't hit for much power.

Dustin Pedroia was designed to be a #2 hitter. He's not an easy out, he's not going to clog the bases, he's a smart hitter, a smart baserunner, his career OBP is .368.

Right now my base lineup would be: Ellsbury, Pedroia, Gonzalez, Ross, Saltalamacchia, Middlebrooks, Crawford, Aviles, Nava/Sweeney.

Then when Ortiz returns: Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz, Gonzalez, Ross, Saltalamacchia, Middlebrooks, Crawford, Aviles. Now that's a lineup. Ellsbury and Pedroia get on base. You have multiple power guys in the middle who can knock runs in. Then some decent power after that to mop up, and a solid back of the lineup that can generate runs and give Ellsbury and Pedroia some RBI opportunities.

Having Crawford bat 2nd means the lineup relies too heavily on a player who never was great at getting on base. And this is also a guy who hasn't yet proven he is nearly as good as he was back in 2010.

This doesn't solve the Red Sox' pitching problems. Guys like Felix Doubront have carried the team while Beckett and Lester have been lying down on the job. And now Doubront is looking more like Felix Doubront.

Fixing this team's pitching is a simple plan, but it's not easy to execute. Josh Beckett and Jon Lester need to pitch better. Easy to say, but will it actually happen? Beckett might go on one of his runs of excellence. He might not. Flip a coin.

But Jon Lester is staring into the abyss right now. His next start could be a turning point in his career, one way or the other.

Beckett and Lester need to do their jobs. Felix Doubront is simply not capable of carrying the load that these guys are supposed to assume responsibility for. Doubront has done well, but he's no Josh Beckett or Jon Lester.

Thankfully, Clay Buchholz is on the mound tonight. The Sox could use another great start from him. He faces 21 year old Martin Perez. Perez has made two Major League starts this year, one was decent, one was horrible. However, he's also a lefty, and the Sox have no experience against him. So Buchholz might need to be brilliant in order for this losing streak to be stopped.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo

Monday, July 23, 2012

Red Sox Suck Against Blue Jays

Should we be surprised by this team's disappointments anymore? After taking 3 of 4 from a division leader, they get swept by a team which had been in last place. The Red Sox are 15-15 in their last 30 games. A remarkably uniform achievement of inconsistency.

I'm seriously considering the idea that the Red Sox should simply trade Josh Beckett and Jon Lester. The Red Sox are 1-6 the last 7 times Beckett took the mound. They haven't won with Lester starting since June.

With these guys on the mound, the Sox are 13-23 (.361). The Sox are 35-25 (.583) when someone else starts. These are supposedly the best two pitchers on the team, but the team is .222 winning percentage points better when Beckett and Lester are spectators.

Beckett has always been inconsistent and unreliable. This season's struggles aren't much different from his poor 2010 performance, his inconsistency in 2008, or his shitty September last year.

Lester's struggling is more of a mystery. This is a guy whose career has been consistent as a clock. For 4 years he won between 15-19 games, had an ERA between 3.20 and 3.50, and a WHIP between 1.23 and 1.27.

Now his ERA is 2 runs higher than normal, his WHIP is slightly higher, and he's giving up much more extra-base hits.

One theory I have is psychological. I think he wanted to be more than the steady #2 pitcher he'd been for 4 straight seasons. I think he wanted to be an Ace. He made pre-season remarks complaining that he wasn't perceived as elite. I think he's trying too hard and not just letting himself be Jon Lester on the mound.

Or maybe the explanation is simple and he just sucks.

I doubt the Red Sox will trade either of these guys. Let alone both of them. I do know that the .583 winning percentage they have when others are starting would be good enough to lead the Wild Card race. And if the Sox were merely .500 in Beckett and Lester's starts, they'd be 53-43, would be leading the Wild Card, and  be only 4.5 games behind the Yankees.

As it is, the Sox are in last place in the division, and 4 teams stand between them and the Wild Card spots.

The Sox start a 6 game road trip against the two best teams in baseball. Tonight Felix Doubront opposes Scott Feldman of the Rangers. Feldman is a converted reliever with a 5.89 ERA. The Sox should be able to do something against him.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo