Antonio Brown acquisition: Let's not queue up the quacking duck boats yet

The Patriots have signed star receiver Antonio Brown. Understandably, we're all excited about this acquisition. Look at the Pats' receiving options: Gordon, Edelman, Thomas, and then add a guy who has caught 100+ passes for 1,200+ yards each of the past 6 seasons. It's absurd.

But let's pace ourselves here and wait until Brown is actually catching touchdowns before we start celebrating them. Let's also wait to see if Gordon can stay clean between now and February, if Edelman's concussed brain can last another year of relentless hits across the middle, if Demariyus Thomas can recover and carve out a role here.

I'm not being negative. I'm happy with this move. And if Brown is a problem the Patriots will jettison him without hesitation. I'm pleased, but not ecstatic. I'll enjoy Antonio Brown's performance one catch at a time, not all at once before it even happens.

Patriots fans have a problem of anticipation and expectations. And it ruins their enjoyment of this team's success. They expect a 14-2 (or better) season with multiple touchdown margins of victory most weeks. So when that happens they don't even enjoy it. And when the Pats don't meet those lofty expectations, the fans act like the team hasn't won 6 rings, or been to 8 straight AFC title games. They don't fully enjoy watching the high quality of football being played in Foxborough. It's like sitting down to a perfectly cooked steak dinner, but instead of taking our time to savor each juicy bite, Pats fans put it in a blender, liquefy it, and chug it down in one gulp.

I don't know how much Antonio Brown will contribute to the 2019 Patriots. He certainly has a huge ceiling. He could be a huge bust. But I'll wait until he's making big plays to celebrate his big plays. One game at a time, one play at a time.

Patriots' Path to the Super Bowl

The Patriots secured the top seed in the AFC playoffs Sunday, ensuring that the road to the Super Bowl goes through New England. But what kind of obstacles will the Patriots face on that road? Who will stand in their path and what kind of challenge will they pose?

Just a sidenote about this year's NFL playoffs... between the Pats, Steelers, Chiefs, Raiders, and Dolphins, you've got tons of great AFC/AFL/NFL history. These teams combine for 16 total Super Bowl wins, or 2/3 of the 24 Super Bowls won by AFC teams. The Steelers, Patriots, Dolphins, and Raiders have won more AFC Championship games (25) than all other teams combined. Think about all the great players, coaches, and teams: the Steel Curtain, the perfect 1972 season, the Black Hole, the loudest stadium, Brady, Bradshaw, Stram, Madden, Marino.

Plus there's the Texans.

Here is a list of what the Patriots will face in each round:

DIVISIONAL ROUND OPPONENTS: Oakland, Houston, or Miami
The Patriots cannot face the #2 seeded Chiefs or #3 seeded Steelers in the Divisional Round, which is good news because these are the two teams I'd least prefer the Patriots to play. If the Raiders still had a healthy Derek Carr I'd include them in that group. But they don't.

So let's start with the Carr-less Raiders. They had a great offense with Carr. They still have plenty of talent on that side of the ball, but in a playoff game against Belichick and the rested Patriots, it's hard to imagine the Raiders posing much of a threat. You never know, though. Over-confidence can be a killer. And if the Raiders make it to the Divisional Round, that means they figured out a way to win, and did so on the road. Albeit against a soft Houston team. But momentum, confidence, and a backup QB with little game film of to study... you just never know.

You would hope the Pats would take the game 100% seriously and do their job.

If it's Patriots vs. Raiders in the Divisional Round, how many times will the phrase "Tuck Rule" be uttered before and during the game? Over/under on that would be 1,000,000.5.

I don't know which team I'd prefer the Patriots to play: Houston or Oakland. There's a strong chance it will be one of these two as I think the Steelers will easily handle the Dolphins. So do you want the team with an injured QB, or the team with the mediocre QB?

The 9-7 Texans were 4-6 outside of their crappy division. One of those losses was a 27-0 blowout at Gillette Stadium against Jacoby Brissett.

Houston averages under 200 yards in the air per game. For every position they're strong at, there are others that they are terribly weak at, quarterback being the most obvious.

The last (and only) time the Texans beat the Patriots was in January 2010. That was the game Wes Welker got hurt in before the playoffs started. The Patriots are 7-1 against Houston all-time, and are in the midst of a 5-game win streak against them.

You can't not be happy if the Pats play the Texans.

If Miami beats the Steelers, then the Patriots play the Dolphins no matter what happens in the 4 vs. 5 game. Miami can sometimes give the Pats trouble, but not so much at Gillette Stadium in the Brady Era. The last time the Dolphins won in Foxboro was in 2008, when Matt Cassel was the Pats' QB. Brady has beaten Miami 10-straight times at Gillette, and is 14-1 against them at home.

But there's something unsettling about playing a team for the third time in a season. Those games can get weird. The Dolphins have seen (twice) how the Patriots can beat them. They can learn and possibly adapt. Third games can be unpredictable, which seems counter-intuitive considering there's already 120 minutes of football played between the two teams.

Over-familiarity and maybe over-confidence can be a recipe for a disappointing loss. And after all, the Pats' win in Miami this past Sunday was a few turnovers away from being very, very interesting. One or two big plays can turn an easy game into a tough challenge.

All 3 of the potential Divisional Round opponents are excellent matchups for the Patriots. There's no top tier QB to worry about. These are teams with multiple and significant flaws. The Raiders and Dolphins have limited playoff experience and the Texans only have playoff losing experience.

So the Divisional Round might be easy on paper. That is certainly not the case for potential AFC title game opponents...

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME OPPONENTS: Steelers, Chiefs, Raiders, or Texans
The Patriots can't play the Dolphins in this round. It seems unlikely that the Raiders or Texans would get this far, but it's possible, and would be fantastic for the Pats.

What's most likely is that either the Steelers or Chiefs would come to Gillette Stadium.

I think the Steelers will be the team to challenge the Pats for a Super Bowl berth. They have the momentum, riding a 7-game winning streak entering the playoffs. They have the history and experience. They have a Super Bowl winning QB, a receiver who is almost impossible to cover, and one of the best RBs in the NFL.

It's true the Pats beat Pittsburgh on the road in October. And that means a whole lot of nothing. The Steelers were banged up and without Roethlisberger. Meanwhile Rob Gronkowski was healthy. The tables have turned since then. The Steelers have the all their black and yellow Killer Bees at their disposal now: Brown, Bell, and Big Ben.

Their defense isn't as imposing as it used to be. They were 12th in overall defense, 16th in passing defense, 13th in rushing. They were 10th in points allowed. None of this is bad, but it's not what one usually thinks of when one thinks of Pittsburgh.

And 29% of their 7-game win streak was against the Browns. They were 2-3 against playoff teams, They were 5-3 away from Pittsburgh and their best road win was against the Ravens.

So maybe the Chiefs will beat them in Kansas City.

The Chiefs led the NFL with a +16 turnover margin. They protect the ball, and they go after it on defense. Most interceptions, most fumble recoveries.

They don't have a very good offense. And their Red Zone offense isn't impressive so even against the Patriots bend-don't-break defense it will be tough for KC to put up points. Andy Reid is also one of the worst game clock managers I've ever seen. Captain Hook does better with clocks than Reid does.

Either team would be tough. For the sake of continuing a rivalry, I'd prefer the Steelers to come to Foxboro. The Patriots and Steelers are tied for the most AFC Championship game wins at 8 apiece (Denver also has 8). So the winner would claim that honor, and have a chance to add to their franchise's legacy with yet another Super Bowl win.

SUPER BOWL OPPONENTS: Dallas, Atlanta, Seattle, Green Bay, New York, Detroit
There are 2 teams in the AFC playoffs that scare me. There are 4 in the NFC. Thankfully the Pats will only have to play one NFC opponent to win it all. Just a quick thought on each possible opponent:

Dallas: I'd be worried unless Romo is still holding for field goals and extra points

Atlanta: Horrible defense and choking quarterback

Seattle: Championship caliber

Green Bay: Aaron Rodgers is 7-6 in playoff games and 3-5 since winning the Super Bowl

New York: Please, God, no

Detroit: Please, God, yes

PREDICTION:
Patriots play the Raiders in the Divisional Round and win. Then they play the Steelers and win a close game. Then the play the Cowboys in the Super Bowl and win.

Patriots finally have a playmaking, game-changing defense, and everyone is obsessed with the offense

If you were a Patriots fan that had been living in a cave for the last 9 months, and emerged from your cave today and turned on sports radio, you'd probably panic. From the way people are bemoaning the offense, and remembering how shaky the defense has been for several years, you'd probably presume that the Pats were 0-3.

However, the defense is finally making plays and winning games. Yet the people that have been very vocally pining for such a playmaking defense, are now the ones ignoring how well they've played.

The Patriots didn't allow a touchdown Sunday. They held Oakland to 241 yards of offense, only 174 in the air and 67 on the ground. The Raiders only converted 5 of 13 3rd downs. They were 0 for 2 in the red zone. When the defense committed penalties, they weren't horrible for the situation, such as interfering with a receiver who was probably about to catch a touchdown.

Chandler Jones tipped two passes at the line of scrimmage. Logan Ryan, Kyle Arrington, and Patrick Chung all got their hands on the ball. Vince Wilfork's interception was the result of a fortuitous bounce, but when a defense gets their hands on the ball as often as the Pats did on Sunday, turnovers are bound to happen.

And even though Darrelle Revis didn't have a great game, his presence allows guys like Ryan and Arrington to be in better matchups. Revis often assumes the tougher assignments, allowing Arrington and Ryan to make plays against lower level receivers. Which is similar to what Vince Wilfork has done on the d-line, assuming tough blocks, giving other guys a chance to make plays. Ironically, Revis had a Wilfork-like game, and with the game-ending pick, Wilfork had a Revis-like game.

26.7. That was Oakland's average yards per drive. Three 3 and outs, 2 of them in the 4th quarter. The defense was great.

I'm focusing on the defense because it's been so long since we've seen a game-winning defense in New England. With the growth of Chandler Jones, the return of steady players like Wilfork and Mayo, and the relative depth in the backfield, this defense has potential to be one of the best in the NFL.

Of course, the offense was awful. The line allowed Brady to get hit too often. Brady missed throws too often. The running game got stuffed too often. Stupid penalties were committed too often, frequently at the worst possible time, such as a false start on 3rd and 10. The offense relied too heavily on Gronkowski in the red zone and on Edelman between the 20s.

When the Pats were winning Super Bowls, they found ways to win. They'd win one week with offense, the next with defense, the next with a big turnover, the next with a big special teams play. In their 21-game win streak, they beat the Browns 9-3 then a few weeks later beat the Colts 38-34. They found ways to win all kinds of games.

Time will tell if this Patriots team can win different kinds of games in different ways. At least we've seen that the defense can do it. Albeit against weaker competition and for a small sample size. It's almost as if it's still September, and having any opinion cheerfully high or bitterly low on this Patriots team based on such a small sample, would be moronic.

Photo Credit: Kirby Lee/USA Today Sports

Back in Order

It wasn't immaculate, but the Patriots got back to the business of winning in Oakland Sunday afternoon, thanks to Wes Welker, Vince Wilfork, and some Raiders' penalties.

It's safe to say that Welker is back. He caught 9 passes for 158 yards. He's on pace for 160 receptions. He's Brady's favorite target again, he's getting yards after the catch, he's getting himself open on 3rd downs.

Vince Wilfork is the defensive MVP of the Patriots. He not only holds down the middle of the defensive line (which is extra hard on the road as Haynesworth apparently does not like to travel), but now he's making plays. Two interceptions this season, which is only one shy of Arrington for the team lead.

Turnovers saved the Patriots in this game. Chung's interception ended an Oakland drive that should have been a touchdown. The Pats do not have a good defense, but if they can retrieve the ball (and the offense can hang on to it), then they can be saved.

I had a thought during this game. Why not use Matthew Slater as a defensive back? He can't be much worse in coverage than the safeties currently employed by the Pats, and at least he can tackle.

I'm glad the Patriots fully utilized Ridley. 97 yards on 10 carries, and a touchdown. He can be more effective than Ellis (getting more yards per carry), and more dependable than Woodhead to get those 2 must-have yards.

The Raiders did the Patriots plenty of favors. Richard Seymour's childish antics with Brady are the foremost example. But even just running the ball instead of taking advantage of the Patriots' weak zone defense felt like Oakland was trying to not take advantage of the Patriots' biggest weakness. Thanks.

The Pats are now tied with the Bills for first, with a big divisional game this Sunday. Jets at Patriots, Sunday at 4:15.

Photo Credit:
AP Photo