Feasting on the Big East

It looks like West Virginia is headed to the Big XII. This will be the third defection of a Big East school to another conference this season, and the sixth this decade. That's not counting TCU's decision to move to the Big XII. With WVU, Syracuse, and Pittsburgh leaving, what will happen to the Big East as a football conference? Can it maintain its BCS standing, or will it become a "mid-major?" Or worse?

Louisville, Rutgers, South Florida, UConn, Cincinnati. Five teams. That's all the Big East has for football. That won't work in the BCS. The Big XII is the next smallest BCS conference with at least 10 teams (11 if Missouri stays). Meanwhile, the ACC will have 14, the SEC 13, and the Pac-12 and BigTen have 12 each. So the Big East must add at least 3 teams (preferably more) to remain in the BCS.

But who will they be? In '05, they added Louisville, Cincinnati, and USF to their football league. Back then, there were plenty of solid C-USA programs to invite. Then UConn promoted its football team to I-A. These newcomers claimed 4 of the last 5 conference titles.

But who is out there for the Big East now? That well has gotten very dry. Houston is 7-0 this year, but was 5-7 last year. The Big East wants to add them. UCF was 11-3 last year, they're 4-3 this year. They are a Big East target. SMU is 5-2, but they've barely reached bowl eligibility in recent years and were 1-11 in 2008. The Big East is interested. These are the teams that could replace WVU, Syracuse, and Pitt. That's hardly worthy of a BCS berth.

Oh, the Big East has also been prodding Villanova to bring its football program up to I-A. The Wildcats are 1-7 this year (they beat Penn) down in I-AA.

There have been rumors that the Big East wants to add Air Force, Navy, and even Boise State as football-only members. Obviously Boise State would dramatically improve the conference. But why would the Broncos do it? They've reached the BCS without an automatic bid. They'd have to figure out what conferences their other sports would play in. And do they want to play their road games in Connecticut, New Jersey, and Ohio?

And who buys a ticket to climb aboard a sinking ship?

This ESPN.com article describes a convoluted plan to merge the Big East, C-USA, and Mountain West together as one super-league, with around 30 teams in 4 divisions, a playoff, and hopefully the winner receiving an automatic BCS berth. I think it's a bit too harebrained to even attempt.

The Big East isn't out of danger, either. Louisville is a rumored target of the Big XII. UConn and Rutgers would accept invitations to the ACC in a heartbeat. And if that happens, the Big East is essentially dead. It'd be USF and Cincinnati. Maybe Houston, Navy, UCF, and SMU would join them. But they would certainly not be a BCS conference anymore. They'd fall somewhere between the Mountain West and C-USA.

It's kind of sad. But the Big East has always been a bit too weird. Intentionally so. It was founded as a basketball conference, with the football side forming more than a decade after its original founding. The other conferences were about regional and historical teams joining together to compete in multiple sports. The Big East was about TV revenue from the start. They just picked the wrong sport to focus on.

They snubbed Penn State in 1985, and they've been different from every other conference since then. The idea of 8 football programs and 16 basketball programs sounds nice and neat, but it's messy. The Big East has always been two conferences with one label. How can you let Notre Dame benefit from basketball revenue when they don't share football revenue? How must schools like Georgetown and St. John's feel now that their basketball league is being threatened due to football? It's a crazy mess and always has been. Conferences are supposed to organize and regulate chaos, not cause it.

And a football conference centered in the northeast was doomed to fail anyway. You do have BC, Syracuse, Pitt, and WVU up here. Also up-and-coming programs like Rutgers and UConn. But we've seen that these teams are not going to decline the opportunity to be a part of big time college football, which is based in the South and the Midwest. That's where the big games are, that's where the money is.

Big East football is on life support. And the basketball is severely crippled. 19 Big East football titles have been awarded. And 15 of those are in the trophy cases of schools that have joined or will soon join other conferences. If UConn, Louisville, and Rutgers depart, say goodbye to 2 more football titles, not to mention UConn's basketball programs, along with the 20,000+ fans that Louisville averages at their basketball games. Don't forget about completely losing the New York market once Syracuse, UConn and Rutgers are all playing in the ACC.

As unfortunate as watching the slow death of a conference can be, the moves by West Virginia and TCU almost guarantee that the Big XII will survive. One conference dies, another lives on. The Big East has become an unwilling organ donor, sacrificing its parts to make other conferences healthy again.

The Big XII was in jeopardy a few months ago, but now look very strong. And they can add teams if they want to, like Louisville. They could add Houston to bolster their numbers (as opposed to the Big East, who would add Houston to compete for conference titles). The Big XII can offer Boise State a BCS bid along with geographic convenience. Same with BYU. And the Big XII's monopoly on Texas high school recruiting is an enticement no other conference can match.

The Big East will not be a BCS conference. It will be fortunate to remain in existence as a football league. The Big XII is safe, and might even grow to 12 members once again. Maybe more.

College Football Preview: Big East*

After a quick glance at the preseason Top 25, you can see why the Big East added a team from Texas. TCU's ranked higher than West Virginia in the AP Poll, and WVU isn't even ranked by the Coaches'. WVU are the favorites, but each team in the Big East, including WVU, have big enough weaknesses that there are many contenders for that BCS bid. The conference title race might remain wide open until December.

1. WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS

The Mountaineers are men amongst boys in the Big East. QB Geno Smith will be the spotlight of the offense. He threw 24 TDs with only 7 picks last year, and amassed nearly 3,000 yards of total offense. But he was a supporting actor to Noel Devine, whose loss WVU will have to adapt to. They do have a solid WR group, and their O-line returns 4 starters.

Last year, though, WVU won with their defense. But they only bring back 4 starters. They have standouts such as DE Bruce Irvin, who'll be a full-time end after recording 14 sacks as a 3rd down specialist last year. Corner Keith Tandy intercepted 6 passes. But the linebackers are weak, and most of the secondary is vulnerable.

The offense will have to pick up the slack. But in the Big East, how many good offenses are capable of really exploiting WVU's weaknesses? Not many.

Key Games:
9/24 vs. LSU
10/8 vs. UConn
10/21 @ Syracuse
11/25 vs. Pitt
12/1 @ South Florida

Prediction:
10-2, Big East Champions, and a big loss in a BCS Bowl

2. PITT PANTHERS

Junior QB Tino Sunseri had a respectable 2010, throwing for 2,572 yards, 15 TDs, all with a 64% completions percentage. The offense will be more complex under new coach Todd Graham. In the backfield, RB Ray Graham (another junior) will carry the offense. He ran for 6.2 per carry his sophomore season.

Pitt returns 8 defensive starters from a unit that was 2nd in the conference and 15th in the country in scoring defense, and also 3rd in the conference and 8th in the nation in total defense. But Todd Graham's coaching strengths are on offense. He was also Pitt's 2nd choice in the off-season. He'll implement an "attacking 3-4" which will rely heavily on linebackers. That is also Pitt's only real weakness on defense.

In the Big East, though, there's enough wiggle room to experiment and try new things.

Key Games:
9/24 vs. Notre Dame
9/29 vs. South Florida
10/26 vs. UConn
11/25 @ West Virginia
12/3 vs. Syracuse

Prediction:
8-4

3. UCONN HUSKIES

UConn did well down the stretch last year to win their first Big East title. But they'll have to rebuild heavily at running-back, which has typically been their strongest position. There's also no clear choice at QB.

DT Kendall Reyes has NFL talent, and the defense returns 10 starters. However, there's plenty of room to improve. There's a new defensive coordinator, along with a new head coach. Without Randy Edsall, I don't know if this team will have the character it demonstrated in their stretch run last year.

They started slow last year then got on track. If they're able to do similar in 2011, they can do some damage, as their games against Big East contenders come back-to-back-to-back-to-back.

Key Games:
10/8 @ West Virginia
10/15 vs. South Florida
10/26 @ Pitt
11/5 vs. Syracuse

Prediction:
8-4

4. SYRACUSE ORANGE

Syracuse should have an improved offense, but that's not difficult to do considering they averaged a mere 22.2 points per game last year. That was 93rd in the nation. QB Ryan Nassib threw 19 TDs, and he'll be protected by an experienced line, and have experienced receivers to throw to.

Defense was their strength last year, but they lost 8 seniors. They need help at every level. They need 2 new tackles, 2 new LBs, and 2 new corners. They also need to figure out how to win at home. They were 0-4 in the Carrier Dome, against D-IA opponents. They did beat Maine and Colgate, which would be an impressive feat in hockey, not football.

Key Games:
9/17 @ USC
10/21 vs. West Virginia
11/5 @ UConn
11/11 vs. South Florida
12/3 @ Pitt

Prediction:
8-4

5. SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS

QB BJ Daniels has talent, but he makes mistakes. 11 TD passes, 13 INTs last year. The Bulls have plenty of options at RB, but none of them have been tested. They boast a deep defensive line. Three of their four defensive backs are returning, which is very nice since they had the 24th best passing defense last year.

Their 8-5 record was a bit of an illusion. Wins against Stony Brook, WKU, and Florida Atlantic helped inflate their total. Their 2011 schedule has similar cupcakes, like Ball State, Florida A&M, and UTEP. But, they have to go on the road for some tough games. At Notre Dame, at Pitt, at UConn, at Syracuse. Thankfully, they do host West Virginia.

Their subpar offense and their tough schedule will make this a trying year down in Tampa.

Key Games:
9/3 @ Notre Dame
9/29 @ Pitt
10/15 @ UConn
11/11 @ Syracuse
11/19 vs. Miami
12/1 vs. West Virginia

Prediction:
7-5

6. CINCINNATI BEARCATS

The Bearcats had the best offense and the worst defense in the Big East. And of course, only 5 return on offense, and 10 return on defense. The Bearcats have a good QB, a good RB, but they struggle to hold on to the ball. Their -15 turnover margin killed them last year. They'll get no help from their special teams, and at best, their defense won't hurt them. The offense simply won't be good enough to carry them far.

Prediction:
6-6

7. LOUISVILLE CARDINALS

Last year, Louisville won some games because of their between the tackles running, and their ability to defend against the pass (9th best pass defense in country). This year, their runningbacks are smaller. Their pass game isn't good enough to pick up the slack. The safeties are solid, but the corners are weak. This will be a year of practice for the 2012 season. But as of right now, Louisville will struggle to win games.

Prediction:
6-6

8. RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS

The0r 4-8 record was inflated by wins against Norfolk State, Florida International, and an OT win over Army. They were 101st in scoring offense, 110th in rushing offense, and 114th in total offense. Their offensive line allowed 61 sacks, which is an NCAA record. Their defensive pieces have been shifted around, but there's not much to work with there. The bright spot is their passing game, which was 79th last year.

Prediction:
5-7