Texas Hires Charlie Strong, Three Quick Thoughts

1. Texas can't wait a day or two? They have to announce this hiring when the college football world is focused on Florida State and Auburn?

2. Mack Brown + Charlie Strong = Charlie Brown. Good grief.

3. Texas seems to like coaches with short, powerful names. Mack Brown leads to Charlie Strong. Another coach with a short, powerful name: Rex Ryan. Is sexy Rexy next in line for the job in Austin? As an Oklahoma fan, I sure hope so. As a Patriots fan, I hope Rex stays with the Jets for life.

The Best Thursday Night Lineup in College Football History?

Tonight four Top 10 BCS teams will play in a pair of games with massive National Championship implications. Have four Top 10 BCS teams ever played each other on a Thursday night before? I don't no, nor do I care.

At 7:30pm Eastern on Fox Sports 1, undefeated Baylor hosts 7-1 Oklahoma. The Bears are ranked 6th in the BCS and in order to keep any National Championship hopes alive, they must win out. They're also in a tight conference battle in the Big 12. Oklahoma is also involved in that fight with a 4-1 conference record. The #10 Sooners must beat Baylor then hope Texas (5-0 in the Big 12) lose in the conference.

At 9:00pm on ESPN, #5 Stanford hosts #3 Oregon. The Cardinal are Oregon's biggest roadblock to an undefeated season and possible National Championship berth. Stanford have the 19th best scoring defense, allowing less than 20 points per game. The Ducks have the 2nd best offense in the country, averaging 55.6 points per game. Tonight will be the hardest test for both units.

Every year, the Ducks find a way to lose a pivotal game. They lost to Stanford 17-14 in overtime last season, LSU and USC in 2011, the BCS title game in 2010, Boise State and Stanford in '09, Boise State, Stanford, and Cal in 2008, and so on. They're 64-10 since '08, but with 0 National titles, and only 2 BCS bowl wins.

The Ducks don't finish.

I think Oregon loses a close game, probably due to some special teams mistake. And Oklahoma upends Baylor in a not-so-close game. Then huge sighs of relief will rise up from Tuscaloosa, Tallahassee, and Columbus.

Change for the BCS?

There may be change coming to college football's postseason. At the very least, it will be discussed by the 11 Division I-A conference heads along with Notre Dame's AD. There will be mafia style meetings like when the heads of crime families from across the country meet. There will be discussions on what's best for college football's future. There will be stubbornness, there might be compromise, and the Big East might get whacked.

The SEC wants a playoff. Ironic considering how much they've thrived in current BCS format.

The ACC also wants a playoff.

The Big Ten doesn't. Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delaney is adamant that there be no playoff. He also believes that the world is flat and that the earth is the center of the Universe.

The Pac-12 is a wild card, and could be the best chance for compromise. They could be open to a playoff. So long as the Pac-12/Big Ten/Rose Bowl threesome remains intact. At least they're willing to talk.

The Big XII might want a playoff after seeing Oklahoma State lose 1 game and go to the Fiesta Bowl.

The Big East just wants to survive.

As a demonstration of how messy this discussion is, nobody involved even uses the word "playoff" because it's too inflammatory. "Plus-one" is the term to describe a 4 team playoff. Which makes no sense because there'd be 2 rounds, 3 games, and 4 teams.

Call me cynical, but I don't think there will be any major change from these meetings. Maybe the BCS will only sanction the national title game, instead of the title game and 4 BCS bowls. Maybe the notion of automatic qualification will go out the window, which might stop the musical chairs we've seen in college football.

But there are too many uncompromising people, too many various deal-breaking demands for everyone to be satisfied. And without consensus, there will be no big changes.

Until Jim Delaney dies or gets fired, there won't be any significantly positive change to college football's postseason.

Or maybe, if the BCS does separate itself from the bowls, it might grow as an independent entity. It might eventually build its own playoff system. Just like the NIT. Only with no NCAA tournament to compete with. Think of how popular the NIT would be if it were the only postseason tournament and featured all the best teams. ESPN would pay billions to broadcast a football version of that. And where the TV money goes, the teams will play.

That might make the Orange Bowl less profitable, but I really don't care.

Missouri to SEC*

It's official, The Missouri Tigers will be joining the SEC, and will become part of the East Division. Even though there will only be two SEC teams west of Columbia, MO (Texas A&M and Arkansas). The SEC now has 14 teams, and we'll all see how well that works before leagues move toward 16 teams.

My big question is, when will conferences start dropping teams? That, from a legal perspective, is so much more difficult to do. But does Vanderbilt belong in the SEC? Does Iowa State deserve to be in the Big XII?

The musical chairs continue. The Big XII can afford to lose Missouri because they've added TCU and West Virginia. They'll still have ten teams, and could add the likes of Louisville. Or why not Houston?

So now the SEC's territory spreads from Gainesville, FL to College Station, TX. From Baton Rouge, LA to Columbia, MO. From Lexington, KY to Columbia, SC. And now in the SEC there are now three teams named "Tigers," two named "Bulldogs," and two playing in towns called Columbia.

Who's next for the SEC? If they decide to expand to 16, why not target Texas and Oklahoma? Or maybe Miami and Virginia Tech. In all the inter-conference maneuverings, the SEC has been the most desired conference to be in. Nobody has left the SEC, and their options for expansion are the most extensive.

Feasting on the Big East

It looks like West Virginia is headed to the Big XII. This will be the third defection of a Big East school to another conference this season, and the sixth this decade. That's not counting TCU's decision to move to the Big XII. With WVU, Syracuse, and Pittsburgh leaving, what will happen to the Big East as a football conference? Can it maintain its BCS standing, or will it become a "mid-major?" Or worse?

Louisville, Rutgers, South Florida, UConn, Cincinnati. Five teams. That's all the Big East has for football. That won't work in the BCS. The Big XII is the next smallest BCS conference with at least 10 teams (11 if Missouri stays). Meanwhile, the ACC will have 14, the SEC 13, and the Pac-12 and BigTen have 12 each. So the Big East must add at least 3 teams (preferably more) to remain in the BCS.

But who will they be? In '05, they added Louisville, Cincinnati, and USF to their football league. Back then, there were plenty of solid C-USA programs to invite. Then UConn promoted its football team to I-A. These newcomers claimed 4 of the last 5 conference titles.

But who is out there for the Big East now? That well has gotten very dry. Houston is 7-0 this year, but was 5-7 last year. The Big East wants to add them. UCF was 11-3 last year, they're 4-3 this year. They are a Big East target. SMU is 5-2, but they've barely reached bowl eligibility in recent years and were 1-11 in 2008. The Big East is interested. These are the teams that could replace WVU, Syracuse, and Pitt. That's hardly worthy of a BCS berth.

Oh, the Big East has also been prodding Villanova to bring its football program up to I-A. The Wildcats are 1-7 this year (they beat Penn) down in I-AA.

There have been rumors that the Big East wants to add Air Force, Navy, and even Boise State as football-only members. Obviously Boise State would dramatically improve the conference. But why would the Broncos do it? They've reached the BCS without an automatic bid. They'd have to figure out what conferences their other sports would play in. And do they want to play their road games in Connecticut, New Jersey, and Ohio?

And who buys a ticket to climb aboard a sinking ship?

This ESPN.com article describes a convoluted plan to merge the Big East, C-USA, and Mountain West together as one super-league, with around 30 teams in 4 divisions, a playoff, and hopefully the winner receiving an automatic BCS berth. I think it's a bit too harebrained to even attempt.

The Big East isn't out of danger, either. Louisville is a rumored target of the Big XII. UConn and Rutgers would accept invitations to the ACC in a heartbeat. And if that happens, the Big East is essentially dead. It'd be USF and Cincinnati. Maybe Houston, Navy, UCF, and SMU would join them. But they would certainly not be a BCS conference anymore. They'd fall somewhere between the Mountain West and C-USA.

It's kind of sad. But the Big East has always been a bit too weird. Intentionally so. It was founded as a basketball conference, with the football side forming more than a decade after its original founding. The other conferences were about regional and historical teams joining together to compete in multiple sports. The Big East was about TV revenue from the start. They just picked the wrong sport to focus on.

They snubbed Penn State in 1985, and they've been different from every other conference since then. The idea of 8 football programs and 16 basketball programs sounds nice and neat, but it's messy. The Big East has always been two conferences with one label. How can you let Notre Dame benefit from basketball revenue when they don't share football revenue? How must schools like Georgetown and St. John's feel now that their basketball league is being threatened due to football? It's a crazy mess and always has been. Conferences are supposed to organize and regulate chaos, not cause it.

And a football conference centered in the northeast was doomed to fail anyway. You do have BC, Syracuse, Pitt, and WVU up here. Also up-and-coming programs like Rutgers and UConn. But we've seen that these teams are not going to decline the opportunity to be a part of big time college football, which is based in the South and the Midwest. That's where the big games are, that's where the money is.

Big East football is on life support. And the basketball is severely crippled. 19 Big East football titles have been awarded. And 15 of those are in the trophy cases of schools that have joined or will soon join other conferences. If UConn, Louisville, and Rutgers depart, say goodbye to 2 more football titles, not to mention UConn's basketball programs, along with the 20,000+ fans that Louisville averages at their basketball games. Don't forget about completely losing the New York market once Syracuse, UConn and Rutgers are all playing in the ACC.

As unfortunate as watching the slow death of a conference can be, the moves by West Virginia and TCU almost guarantee that the Big XII will survive. One conference dies, another lives on. The Big East has become an unwilling organ donor, sacrificing its parts to make other conferences healthy again.

The Big XII was in jeopardy a few months ago, but now look very strong. And they can add teams if they want to, like Louisville. They could add Houston to bolster their numbers (as opposed to the Big East, who would add Houston to compete for conference titles). The Big XII can offer Boise State a BCS bid along with geographic convenience. Same with BYU. And the Big XII's monopoly on Texas high school recruiting is an enticement no other conference can match.

The Big East will not be a BCS conference. It will be fortunate to remain in existence as a football league. The Big XII is safe, and might even grow to 12 members once again. Maybe more.

College Football Musical Chairs

The musical chairs of college football continue as Pitt and Syracuse will be joining the ACC. The move not only improves the football of the conference, it also dramatically improves the quality of the basketball. Syracuse, Duke, and UNC will all be directly competing against each other. The move also widens the ACC's footprint in the Northeast.

The ACC could stay at 14 teams, or it could easily expand to 16. UConn and Rutgers are very willing to join. Notre Dame has been rumored to be a target, and would obviously bring huge amounts of revenue and exposure to the conference. As a BC fan, I'd love if UConn and Notre Dame were to join Boston College in the ACC.

But Notre Dame's ample revenue streams are precisely why they won't join the ACC. They don't want to split their football money with anyone.

The ACC adding teams makes sense for several reasons. Obviously, adding quality football and basketball programs increases shared revenue for everyone. Also, the SEC is lurking, like a shark in deep waters and the ACC needs to protect itself.

Nobody knows how hungry the SEC will be to add teams. But if they do have an appetite, ACC programs like Miami, Florida State, and Virginia Tech might be on the menu. The ACC is actively defending itself in case that happens.

The Pac-12 has announced that it won't expand... today at least. They're happy with a 12 team conference and they'll all be making plenty of money.

This means that most of the Big XII is safe... today at least. Texas A&M will shuffle over to the SEC, and will likely do so uncontested now that the Big XII as a conference can still survive with 9 members. They may also add BYU or even West Virginia. The SEC has denied that it has already added Missouri.

The Big East is on life support. This isn't the first time. When BC, Miami, and Virginia Tech left, many thought that the Big East would die. So I don't want to start writing its obituary, but things seem worse this time around.

The Big East will be down to 7 teams with the departure of Pitt and Cuse (and the addition of TCU). If UConn and Rutgers defect to the ACC and West Virginia to the Big XII, the conference will either have to disband, or add low quality teams to survive. There simply aren't that many good non-BCS programs out there to add, though. Boise State, obviously. But who else? Houston? Central Florida?

I think the ACC will become the first 16 team "super-conference." They'll be an experiment for the other conferences to watch. If it works, then the SEC and others will follow.

We might end up with 4 BCS conferences (ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Pac-16), each with 16 teams, 4 divisions, and 2 rounds of playoffs. Then maybe the 4 conference champs, plus 2 wild cards could be in a National Championship playoff. That'd be fine with me.

Baylor Trying to Save the Big XII

The SEC voted to invite Texas A&M to join their ranks. But before the Home of the 12th Man can be the SEC's 13th member, they're going to have to go through Baylor. One contingency of the SEC's invitation is that there be no legal challenges or roadblocks stopping A&M or any team the SEC decides to invite. Baylor, however, has decided to mount a legal challenge.

It makes sense for Texas A&M to join the SEC, especially with the threat of Oklahoma and Texas joining the Pac-12. It makes sense for the SEC to invite A&M, who has quality programs in multiple sports, and would also help open the state of Texas to SEC recruiters.

Baylor's decision to try to stop this also makes sense. The Big XII is about to be ripped apart, and Baylor will likely be one of the leftovers remaining. They'll likely be invited to the Mountain West, which is respectable, but it's not the BCS. The money that bowl games and TV contracts give to BCS conferences is ridiculous, and that money gets divided evenly by all members of the conference.

To be blunt, Baylor's been getting paid big money thanks to the likes of Texas and Oklahoma. I know they want to keep that money coming, but the reality is that TV dollars now dictate conference alignment, not geography and tradition.

College Football Preview: Big XII*

The Big XII now has ten teams in it. Which is an X in Roman numerals. So maybe they should change their name to the Big "X" (pronounced 'ex'). Anyway, the Big XII no longer has a title game, so all the teams will be facing each other every year.

1. Oklahoma Sooners

The Sooners' pass-happy offense would make any coach smile. QB Landry Jones finally started to mature last season, and he has weapons like All-American WR Ryan Broyles (131 catches, 1622 yards, 14 TDs) among others. The defense has some soft-spots, but it's good enough for the Big XII. The biggest challenge will be winning tough games on the road. OU's only 2 losses alst year came in Columbia, MO and College Station, TX. This year they have games in Tallahassee, FL and Stillwater, OK to deal with.

But this team is really, really good.

Key Games:
9/17 @ Florida State
9/24 vs. Missouri
11/5 vs. Texas A&M
12/3 @ Oklahoma State

Prediction: 11-1, Big XII winner, National title game contender

2. Texas A&M Aggies

The Aggies bring back 18 starters from a 9 win team. They're strong at all offensive positions. For example, WR Jeff Fuller was the first Aggie in history with a 1,000+ yard season. They do need the defense to step up just a bit if they want to win the conference. Because Oklahoma's offense is simply that good. In a slugfest against OU, the Aggies come up just a bit short. So if that defense can gel, and they can slow down the Sooners a bit, they'll win their first conference title since 1998.

Key Games:
9/29 vs. Oklahoma State
10/1 vs. Arkansas (in Arlington, TX)
10/29 vs. Missouri
11/5 @ Oklahoma

Prediction: 11-1, 2nd in Big XII

3. Oklahoma State Cowboys

The Cowboys might have the best offense in the Big XII. They were 3rd in the country last year. QB Brandon Weeden threw 4,277 yards and 34 TDs. WR Justin Blackmon caught 111 passes for 1,782 yards and 20 TDs. The Cowboys' Achilles heel is their defense. Their front 7 is young. Ultimately, their defense will let them down, and keep them out of a BCS bowl. I do think they'll beat Oklahoma, but they'll lose 2 conference games before then.

Key Games:
9/24 @ Texas A&M
10/22 @ Missouri
12/3 vs. Oklahoma

4. Missouri Tigers

The Tigers bring back 9 offensive starters from a unit that was already solid last year. Whoever they find to step up as quarterback will be blessed with riches. They'll be good receivers to throw to, good RBs to hand-off to, and a good line to protect him. The Tigers also bring back 7 defensive starters from a unit that was better than solid last year. They're a dark horse to win the Big XII, although they have some tough road games to endure.

Key Games:
9/9 @ Arizona State
9/24 @ Oklahoma
10/22 vs. Oklahoma State
10/29 @ Texas A&M

Prediction: 9-3

5. Baylor Bears

If you haven't been able to watch QB Robert Griffin, you've been missing out. Last year he threw for 3,501 yards and 22 TDs, and also ran for 625 yards and 8 more TDs. He should have a good 2011 as Baylor boasts some quality WRs. They do need to find some RBs to move the ball on the ground. And unfortunately, their defense will be their undoing. They'll be fun to watch, because games will be high scoring, back-to-back slugfests, but they'll wind up on the wrong end of those against the better teams in the conference.

The Big XII needs teams like Baylor to step up and become solid programs. And in case the Big XX disintegrates, Baylor needs to impress new potential conferences.

Prediction: 7-5

6. Texas Tech Red Raiders

Tech's up-tempo offense will struggle unless they figure out who is going to throw the ball and who'll catch it. They simply don't have the horses this year. And their defense continues to be a mess. They'll be using their 3rd coordinator in 3 years. They'll beat the weak teams of the conference with ease, but will then be casually brushed aside by the powerhouses.

Prediction: 7-5

7. Texas Longhorns

The Longhorns have turnover problems, and no clear QB. Their entire offense is a one big question mark. However, their defense is something to be proud of. They've got a core of good LBs, and they should keep Texas in games until the start of the 2nd quarter. What's ironic is that everyone gets to watch UT's rebuilding process on TV, thanks to the new Longhorn Network. That channel and the football program might have been better off if it started broadcasting in 2012, instead of 2011.

Prediction: 7-5

8. Kansas State Wildcats

K-State has no clue who their QB will be. They have no clue who their RB will me. And the RB mystery is worse because they relied heavily on the run last year. Even the offensive line is full of holes. The defense will likely improve thanks to its linebackers. But still, this is simply an untalented team without any sense of direction.

Prediction: 3-9

9. Iowa State Cyclones

There really isn't any talent in the skill positions, whatsoever. At least the defense will improve and mount some pressure on opposing QBs.

Prediction: 3-9

10. Kansas Jayhawks

If KU is going to be a contender again, it certainly won't be this year. They've got some talent in the pipeline, but it will take time to develop it. The defense lost its best pass rusher, and looks to be worse than it was last year. Which sucks because it was the 103rd scoring defense in the country.

Prediction: 2-10

TEXAS A&M TO STAY IN BIG XII

The Big XII can breath a little easier, at least for now. While Texas A&M wanted to join the SEC, the amount of obstacles potentially blocking such a move were too many to overcome. A 13 team SEC would present scheduling difficulties, a 14 team begs the obvious question "who would be team #14?" Then there was a minefield of legal difficulties, most of which originated from the Lonestar State.

So for now, Texas A&M will remain in the 10 team Big XII.

But I think eventually, the Big XII will be torn asunder. The Pac-12 must still be considering a move to 16 teams. The SEC seems to be thinking about the same thing. Missouri wants to be part of the Big Ten. And who knows, the Big East might want to cherry-pick another team from the Central Time Zone.

In a few years, all the conferences are going to look different. Originally, the conferences were formed based on region and size of the school, as well as how much focus schools had on athletics. Now, conferences are being reshuffled based on TV dollars. That's why the Big East snatched up TCU, why BC is in the ACC, and why the centrally located Big XII is being ripped apart.

One thing I expect to happen shortly is a process of shedding inferior programs. Conferences will drop the schools that can't make big bowl games, don't make the NCAA basketball tournament, and are never on national television. The SEC will drop Mississippi State, The Big XII (if it still exists) may drop Iowa State. The Big Ten may send Northwestern packing.

The age of the super-conferences will soon be upon us.

TEXAS A&M TO SEC?

When Texas decided to stay in the Big XII, the conference seemed like it had been saved from being carved up by the SEC, BigTen, and Pac-10. But they're still vulnerable. Texas A&M might be leaving the 10 team Big XII.

On August 22, A&M's regents board will decide the fate of the historic football program.

To be honest, I can understand why A&M might want to do this. Part of the reason U-Texas decided to remain in the Big XII was because it would be receiving a lion's share of revenues. Texas is the king of the Big XII, which is becoming an ever smaller kingdom. A&M could move east to the SEC, where the throne is contested, and they'd be treated as an equal.

And the Big XII can survive without A&M. Frankly, they let TCU slip through their fingers. The Frogs would have been a perfect addition to the conference, joining the 4 other Texas based programs of the Big XII.

And if A&M goes to the SEC, does the SEC kick someone out? Vanderbilt, perhaps? Mississippi State? There's also rumors of Florida State joining the SEC, which could force the ACC to add a team. The musical chairs in college football continues.